Search results for: Dominic Hudson

Authors: Ainura Tursunalieva, Irene Hudson

Abstract:

Continuous improvement of both the quality and safety of health care is an important goal in Australia and internationally. The intensive care unit (ICU) receives patients with a wide variety of and severity of illnesses. Accurately identifying patients at risk of developing complications or dying is crucial to increasing healthcare efficiency. Thus, it is essential for clinicians and researchers to have a robust framework capable of evaluating the risk profile of a patient. ICU scoring systems provide such a framework. The Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation III and the Simplified Acute Physiology Score II are ICU scoring systems frequently used for assessing the severity of acute illness. These scoring systems collect multiple risk factors for each patient including physiological measurements then render the assessment outcomes of individual risk factors into a single numerical value. A higher score is related to a more severe patient condition. Furthermore, the Mortality Probability Model II uses logistic regression based on independent risk factors to predict a patient’s probability of mortality. An important overlooked limitation of SAPS II and MPM II is that they do not, to date, include interaction terms between a patient’s vital signs. This is a prominent oversight as it is likely there is an interplay among vital signs. The co-existence of certain conditions may pose a greater health risk than when these conditions exist independently. One barrier to including such interaction terms in predictive models is the dimensionality issue as it becomes difficult to use variable selection. We propose an innovative scoring system which takes into account a dependence structure among patient’s vital signs, such as systolic and diastolic blood pressures, heart rate, pulse interval, and peripheral oxygen saturation. Copulas will capture the dependence among normally distributed and skewed variables as some of the vital sign distributions are skewed. The estimated dependence parameter will then be incorporated into the traditional scoring systems to adjust the points allocated for the individual vital sign measurements. The same dependence parameter will also be used to create an alternative copula-based model for predicting a patient’s probability of mortality. The new copula-based approach will accommodate not only a patient’s trajectories of vital signs but also the joint dependence probabilities among the vital signs. We hypothesise that this approach will produce more stable assessments and lead to more time efficient and accurate predictions. We will use two data sets: (1) 250 ICU patients admitted once to the Chui Regional Hospital (Kyrgyzstan) and (2) 37 ICU patients’ agitation-sedation profiles collected by the Hunter Medical Research Institute (Australia). Both the traditional scoring approach and our copula-based approach will be evaluated using the Brier score to indicate overall model performance, the concordance (or c) statistic to indicate the discriminative ability (or area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve), and goodness-of-fit statistics for calibration. We will also report discrimination and calibration values and establish visualization of the copulas and high dimensional regions of risk interrelating two or three vital signs in so-called higher dimensional ROCs.

Keywords: copula, intensive unit scoring system, ROC curves, vital sign dependence

Procedia PDF Downloads 137

Authors: Dominic Winston Kaku

Abstract:

The academic performance of students is an area of great concern in education to the various stakeholders of education. This is because the academic performance of students is widely used as a measure of the success of the educational process. There are several factors, such as school-related factors, teachers related factors, pupils or students’ factors, and many others determining their academic performance. It appears that the management role of head teachers as a determining factor of pupils’ academic achievement is not much investigated. The management role of head teachers is an essential element in the educational process that has a huge influence on students’ academic performance. The aim of the research was to examine the management role of head teachers in improving the academic performance of students. The study employed a descriptive survey and was conducted among Junior High Schools in the Ellembelle District of the Western Region of Ghana. The respondents for the study were mainly all the head teachers, teachers, and some selected basic school pupils (JHS) in four-selected public basic schools in the Ellembelle district in the Western part of Ghana. A questionnaire was used to collect primary data from a sampling size of 252 persons, including 226 JHS pupils, all JHS teachers, and head teachers of all four selected schools. Descriptive statistics, specifically frequencies, percentages, pie charts, bar charts, means, and standard deviation, were used to analyse the data, and that formed the basis of the presentation of findings. The study discovered that planning academic activities, fostering relationships between the school and the community, supervising lessons, staff motivation, and punishing students who go wrong are some of the activities the head teachers participate in to help improve students’ academic performance. The academic performance of students is an area of great concern in education to the various stakeholders of education. This is because the academic performance of students is widely used as a measure of the success of the educational process. There are several factors, such as school-related factors, teachers related factors, pupils or students’ factors, and many others determining their academic performance. It appears that the management role of head teachers as a determining factor of pupils’ academic achievement is not much investigated. The management role of head teachers is an essential element in the educational process that has a huge influence on students’ academic performance. The aim of the research was to examine the management role of head teachers in improving the academic performance of students. The study employed a descriptive survey and was conducted among Junior High Schools in the Ellembelle District of the Western Region of Ghana. The respondents for the study were mainly all the head teachers, teachers, and some selected basic school pupils (JHS) in four-selected public basic schools in the Ellembelle district in the Western part of Ghana. A questionnaire was used to collect primary data from a sampling size of 252 persons, including 226 JHS pupils, all JHS teachers, and head teachers of all four selected schools. Descriptive statistics, specifically frequencies, percentages, pie charts, bar charts, means, and standard deviation, were used to analyse the data, and that formed the basis of the presentation of findings. The study discovered that planning academic activities, fostering relationships between the school and the community, supervising lessons, staff motivation, and punishing students who go wrong are some of the activities the head teachers participate in to help improve students’ academic performance.

Keywords: supervision, head teacher, academic performance, planning, motivation, relationships

Procedia PDF Downloads 52

Authors: Laurence Weinberg, Dominic Walpole, Dong-Kyu Lee, Michael D’Silva, Jian W. Chan, Lachlan F. Miles, Bradley Carp, Adam Wells, Tuck S. Ngun, Siven Seevanayagam, George Matalanis, Ziauddin Ansari, Rinaldo Bellomo, Michael Yii

Abstract:

Background: There have been multiple recent advancements in the selection, optimization and management of cardiac surgical patients. However, there is limited data regarding the outcomes of nonagenarians undergoing cardiac surgery, despite this vulnerable cohort increasingly receiving these interventions. This study describes the patient characteristics, management and outcomes of a group of nonagenarians undergoing cardiac surgery in the context of contemporary peri-operative care. Methods: A retrospective observational study was conducted of patients 90 to 99 years of age (i.e., nonagenarians) who had undergone cardiac surgery requiring a classic median sternotomy (i.e., open-heart surgery). All operative indications were included. Patients who underwent minimally invasive surgery, transcatheter aortic valve implantation and thoracic aorta surgery were excluded. Data were collected from four hospitals in Victoria, Australia, over an 8-year period (January 2012 – December 2019). The primary objective was to assess six-month mortality in nonagenarians undergoing open-heart surgery and to evaluate the incidence and severity of postoperative complications using the Clavien-Dindo classification system. The secondary objective was to provide a detailed description of the characteristics and peri-operative management of this group. Results: A total of 12,358 adult patients underwent cardiac surgery at the study centers during the observation period, of whom 18 nonagenarians (0.15%) fulfilled the inclusion criteria. The median (IQR) [min-max] age was 91 years (90.0:91.8) [90-94] and 14 patients (78%) were men. Cardiovascular comorbidities, polypharmacy and frailty, were common. The median (IQR) predicted in-hospital mortality by EuroSCORE II was 6.1% (4.1-14.5). All patients were optimized preoperatively by a multidisciplinary team of surgeons, cardiologists, geriatricians and anesthetists. All index surgeries were performed on cardiopulmonary bypass. Isolated coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) and CABG with aortic valve replacement were the most common surgeries being performed in four and five patients, respectively. Half the study group underwent surgery involving two or more major procedures (e.g. CABG and valve replacement). Surgery was undertaken emergently in 44% of patients. All patients except one experienced at least one postoperative complication. The most common complications were acute kidney injury (72%), new atrial fibrillation (44%) and delirium (39%). The highest Clavien-Dindo complication grade was IIIb occurring once each in three patients. Clavien-Dindo grade IIIa complications occurred in only one patient. The median (IQR) postoperative length of stay was 11.6 days (9.8:17.6). One patient was discharged home and all others to an inpatient rehabilitation facility. Three patients had an unplanned readmission within 30 days of discharge. All patients had follow-up to at least six months after surgery and mortality over this period was zero. The median (IQR) duration of follow-up was 11.3 months (6.0:26.4) and there were no cases of mortality observed within the available follow-up records. Conclusion: In this group of nonagenarians undergoing cardiac surgery, postoperative six-month mortality was zero. Complications were common but generally of low severity. These findings support carefully selected nonagenarian patients being offered cardiac surgery in the context of contemporary, multidisciplinary perioperative care. Further, studies are needed to assess longer-term mortality and functional and quality of life outcomes in this vulnerable surgical cohort.

Keywords: cardiac surgery, mortality, nonagenarians, postoperative complications

Procedia PDF Downloads 106