Search results for: counterfactuals

Authors: Larry O. Awo, Precious I. Nwachukwu

Abstract:

The increase in proliferation of gambling venues in Nigeria in the last decade has led to an increase in gambling prevalence among the youths who have shown signs of problem gambling and its associated risks and pressures to parents and therapists. The present study sought to investigate the roles of counterfactual thinking (CFT) forms (upward CFT vs downward CFT) in the relationship between impulsivity and gambling intention of 371 Nigerian youths who have gambled prior to the study (mean age = 17.37, SD = 4.13). Hayes PROCESS macro result revealed that, after controlling for age, downward CFT was negatively associated with and contributed to a decrease in gambling intention, while upward CFT was positively associated with and contributed to an increase in gambling intention. Mediation analysis result showed that upward CFT amplified the contribution of impulsivity to gambling intention. The association between impulsivity and gambling was partially weakened by downward CFT, even though this weakness was not significant. We conclude that gambling therapies should encourage packages that attenuate upward CFT impulsivity and at the same time, increase downward CFT skills.

Keywords: upward counterfactuals, downward counterfactuals, gambling intention, nigerian youths

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Authors: Anna Guitart Atienza, Ana Fernández del Río, Madhav Nekkar, Jelena Ljubicic, África Periáñez, Eura Shin, Lauren Bellhouse

Abstract:

The use of digital devices in healthcare or mobile health (mHealth) has increased in recent years due to the advances in digital technology, making it possible to nudge healthy behaviors through individual interventions. In addition, mHealth is becoming essential in poor-resource settings due to the widespread use of smartphones in areas where access to professional healthcare is limited. In this work, we evaluate mHealth interventions in low-income countries with a focus on causal inference. Counterfactuals estimation and other causal computations are key to determining intervention success and assisting in empirical decision-making. Our main purpose is to personalize treatment recommendations and triage patients at the individual level in order to maximize the entire intervention's impact on the desired outcome. For this study, collected data includes mHealth individual logs from front-line healthcare workers, electronic health records (EHR), and external variables data such as environmental, demographic, and geolocation information.

Keywords: causal inference, mHealth, intervention, personalization

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Authors: Yanting Sun

Abstract:

Contemporary theories in cognitive linguistics have established that conditional statements, particularly counterfactuals that express scenarios contradicting known facts, activate distinct mental models in language processing. For instance, a counterfactual statement such as "If it had rained, then they would not go to the park" simultaneously triggers two mental representations: a hypothetical but factually impossible scenario ("rain" and "no park visit") and its corresponding reality-based model ("no rain" and "park visit"). This study investigates the differential effects of pragmatic factors on the comprehension and processing of counterfactual versus hypothetical conditional sentences in Mandarin Chinese, with particular attention to the cognitive mechanisms underlying their interpretation. The experimental design incorporated a comprehensive examination of three critical variables: temporal indicators (comparing past versus future markers) in the antecedent clause, polarity variations (presence or absence of negators), and directional verb distinctions (contrasting lai2 [come] versus qu4 [go]) in the consequent clause. Participants were presented with a carefully curated set of Chinese conditional statements and asked to evaluate their comprehensibility. The study employed sophisticated statistical analyses using linear mixed-effects models (LMEM) to process the resulting data. The findings revealed several significant patterns. First, hypothetical conditionals incorporating future temporal indicators demonstrated consistently higher comprehensibility ratings compared to counterfactual conditionals featuring past temporal indicators. Second, detailed semantic similarity analysis within subordinate clauses showed that future temporal indicators exhibited stronger lexical-semantic co-occurrence patterns than their past-tense counterparts, suggesting that temporal marking influences comprehension through complex lexical-semantic relationships within the premise. This pattern indicates that hypothetical conditionals may require less cognitive processing effort, potentially due to their alignment with natural language processing patterns. Interestingly, when examining semantic similarities between main and subordinate clauses, temporal indicators showed no significant effect. This absence of cross-clausal influence suggests that lexical-semantic co-occurrence patterns spanning across clauses play a minimal role in the cognitive distinction between hypothetical and counterfactual conditionals. This finding challenges previous assumptions about the role of cross-clausal semantic relationships in conditional processing. The study also revealed nuanced interactions between temporal indicators, negation, and directional verbs, contributing to a more comprehensive understanding of how these linguistic elements collectively influence conditional sentence processing. These interactions suggest that the cognitive processing of conditionals involves multiple layers of linguistic and pragmatic information integration. These findings make substantial contributions to both theoretical and practical domains. Theoretically, they enhance our understanding of mental model activation in conditional reasoning, particularly within the context of Mandarin Chinese. Practically, they offer insights into language processing mechanisms that could inform pedagogical approaches to teaching complex conditional structures and support the development of more effective language processing systems.

Keywords: counterfactuals, hypothetical, negator, temporal indicator

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