Search results for: Lucrezia Crescenzi-Lanna

Authors: Ilaria Lucrezia Amerise

Abstract:

Electricity markets throughout the world have undergone substantial changes. Accurate, reliable, clear and comprehensible modeling and forecasting of different variables (loads and prices in the first instance) have achieved increasing importance. In this paper, we describe the actual state of the art focusing on reg-SARMA methods, which have proven to be flexible enough to accommodate the electricity price/load behavior satisfactory. More specifically, we will discuss: 1) The dichotomy between point and interval forecasts; 2) The difficult choice between stochastic (e.g. climatic variation) and non-deterministic predictors (e.g. calendar variables); 3) The confrontation between modelling a single aggregate time series or creating separated and potentially different models of sub-series. The noteworthy point that we would like to make it emerge is that prices and loads require different approaches that appear irreconcilable even though must be made reconcilable for the interests and activities of energy companies.

Keywords: interval forecasts, time series, electricity prices, reg-SARIMA methods

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Authors: Ilaria Lucrezia Amerise

Abstract:

The statistical modelling of precipitation data for a given portion of territory is fundamental for the monitoring of climatic conditions and for Hydrogeological Management Plans (HMP). This modelling is rendered particularly complex by the changes taking place in the frequency and intensity of precipitation, presumably to be attributed to the global climate change. This paper applies the Wakeby distribution (with 5 parameters) as a theoretical reference model. The number and the quality of the parameters indicate that this distribution may be the appropriate choice for the interpolations of the hydrological variables and, moreover, the Wakeby is particularly suitable for describing phenomena producing heavy tails. The proposed estimation methods for determining the value of the Wakeby parameters are the same as those used for density functions with heavy tails. The commonly used procedure is the classic method of moments weighed with probabilities (probability weighted moments, PWM) although this has often shown difficulty of convergence, or rather, convergence to a configuration of inappropriate parameters. In this paper, we analyze the problem of the likelihood estimation of a random variable expressed through its quantile function. The method of maximum likelihood, in this case, is more demanding than in the situations of more usual estimation. The reasons for this lie, in the sampling and asymptotic properties of the estimators of maximum likelihood which improve the estimates obtained with indications of their variability and, therefore, their accuracy and reliability. These features are highly appreciated in contexts where poor decisions, attributable to an inefficient or incomplete information base, can cause serious damages.

Keywords: generalized extreme values, likelihood estimation, precipitation data, Wakeby distribution

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Authors: Lucrezia Crescenzi-Lanna, Silvia Cataldi, Williams Contreras, Valerio Pieri

Abstract:

According to the European Commission, gender-based violence (GBV) is a violation of human rights and a form of discrimination against women in five areas: physical violence, sexual violence, psychological violence, mistreatment of women, and economic violence (henceforth EV). The TESORO project "Treatment, ExpoSition, and ORigin of economic viOlence: An innovation and internationalization project between Italy and Spain" focuses on this last dimension of gender-based violence, the least studied and the one that has received least media coverage. In Spain, 12% (2,350,684) of women over fifteen years of age have suffered economic violence from their partner or ex-partner during their lives. In Italy, another country participating in the project, many women who are welcomed in refuges and who report cases of psychological violence (79%) and/or physical violence (61%) are also victims of economic violence (34%), according to the D.i.Re. Thermometer: "Donne in Rete contro la Violenza", the association that brings together more than eighty refuges against violence in Italy. At the social level, this form of violence is incorporated into practices of inequality that manifest themselves in both the daily management of couples and families and the workplace and institutional settings. As for the mechanisms related to EV, the literature argues that it is a complex and multidimensional phenomenon that has socioeconomic and cultural roots. EV manifests itself through various strategies, which represent forms of power and control aimed at preventing women's financial independence. To analyse the issue of EV we use a multidisciplinary approach and a mixed design that includes: 1) a questionnaire administered to a stratified sample of more than a thousand Italian and Spanish citizens to study the cultural and socio-relational mechanisms and the origin of EV in family and couple contexts; and 2) interviews with those running refuges as part of the struggle against gender violence, to understand how mechanisms and educational activities in the field of economic violence are manifested in the respective region and are supportive of women. The decision to use this strategy responds to the need to combine an exploratory perspective with an explanatory one in order to understand some of the relevant concepts related to the complex phenomena of EV and the interventions dedicated to its prevention. The data will be finalized in June 2022 and presented at the ICWS conference. Among TESORO’s contributions, its collection of qualitative and quantitative data on EV in Italy and Spain stands out, deepening its origin, prevention, and treatment beyond its incidence, which has already been studied in the Macro-Survey on Violence against Women.

Keywords: gender-based violence, economic violence, economic harm, gender inequality, workplace and family contexts

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