Search results for: estimation method

Authors: A. Mansouri, F. Krim

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This paper presents two techniques for DC motor parameters identification. We propose a numerical method using the adaptive extensive recursive least squares (AERLS) algorithm for real time parameters estimation. This algorithm, based on minimization of quadratic criterion, is realized in simulation for parameters identification of DC motor autoregressive moving average with extra inputs (ARMAX). As advanced technique, we use genetic algorithms (GA) identification with biased estimation for high dynamic performance speed regulation. DC motors are extensively used in variable speed drives, for robot and solar panel trajectory control. GA effectiveness is derived through comparison of the two approaches.

Keywords: ARMAX model, DC motor, AERLS, GA, optimization, parameter identification, PID speed regulation

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Authors: Andi Darmawan, Dewi Retno Sari Saputro, Purnami Widyaningsih

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Diabetes mellitus (DM) is a chronic disease in human that occurred if pancreas cannot produce enough of insulin hormone or the body uses ineffectively insulin hormone which causes increasing level of glucose in the blood, or it was called hyperglycemia. In Indonesia, DM is a serious disease on health because it can cause blindness, kidney disease, diabetic feet (gangrene), and stroke. The type of DM criteria can also be divided based on the main causes; they are DM type 1, type 2, and gestational. Diabetes type 1 or previously known as insulin-independent diabetes is due to a lack of production of insulin hormone. Diabetes type 2 or previously known as non-insulin dependent diabetes is due to ineffective use of insulin while gestational diabetes is a hyperglycemia that found during pregnancy. The most one type commonly found in patient is DM type 2. The main factors of this disease are genetic (A) and life style (E). Those disease with 2 factors can be constructed with additive genetic and unique environment (AE) model. In this article was discussed parameter estimation of AE model using Bayesian method and the inheritance character simulation on parent-offspring. On the AE model, there are response variable, predictor variables, and parameters were capable of representing the number of population on research. The population can be measured through a taken random sample. The response and predictor variables can be determined by sample while the parameters are unknown, so it was required to estimate the parameters based on the sample. Estimation of AE model parameters was obtained based on a joint posterior distribution. The simulation was conducted to get the value of genetic variance and life style variance. The results of simulation are 0.3600 for genetic variance and 0.0899 for life style variance. Therefore, the variance of genetic factor in DM type 2 is greater than life style.

Keywords: AE model, Bayesian method, diabetes mellitus type 2, genetic, life style

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Authors: Lo Kar Yin, Law Ka Mei

Abstract:

Architectural, engineering, construction and operations (AECO) industry practitioners have been well adapting to the dynamic construction market from the fundamental training of its discipline. As further triggered by the pandemic since 2019, great steps are taken in virtual environment and the best collaboration is strived with project teams without boundaries. With adoption of Building Information Modeling-based approach and qualitative analysis, this paper is to review quantity take-off and cost estimation process through modeling techniques in liaison with suppliers, fabricators, subcontractors, contractors, designers, consultants and services providers in the construction industry value chain for automatic project cost budgeting, project cost control and cost evaluation on design options of in-situ reinforced-concrete construction and Modular Integrated Construction (MiC) at design stage, variation of works and cash flow/spending analysis at construction stage as far as practicable, with a view to sharing the findings for enhancing mutual trust and co-operation among AECO industry practitioners. It is to foster development through a common prototype of design and build project delivery method in NEC Engineering and Construction Contract (ECC) Options A and C.

Keywords: building information modeling, cost estimation, quantity take-off, modeling techniques

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Authors: Seyedeh Mandan Kazzazi, Elena Kranioti

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In the field of human osteology, sex estimation is an important step in developing biological profile. There are a number of methods that can be used to estimate the sex of human remains varying from visual assessments to metric analysis of sexually dimorphic traits. Teeth are one of the most durable physical elements in human body that can be used for this purpose. The present study investigated the utility of cervical measurements for sex estimation through discriminant analysis. The permanent molar teeth of 75 skeletons (28 females and 52 males) from Hasanlu site in North-western Iran were studied. Cervical mesiodistal and buccolingual measurements were taken from both maxillary and mandibular first and second molars. Discriminant analysis was used to evaluate the accuracy of each diameter in assessing sex. The results showed that males had statistically larger teeth than females for maxillary and mandibular molars and both measurements (P < 0.05). The range of classification rate was from (75.7% to 85.5%) for the original and cross-validated data. The most dimorphic teeth were maxillary and mandibular second molars providing 85.5% and 83.3% correct classification rate respectively. The data generated from the present study suggested that cervical mesiodistal and buccolingual measurements of the molar teeth can be useful and reliable for sex estimation in Iranian archaeological populations.

Keywords: cervical measurements, Hasanlu, premolars, sex estimation

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Authors: Z. Masoumi, B. Moaveni

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This article is about first step of structural health monitoring by identifying structural system in the presence of unknown input. In the structural system identification, identification of structural parameters such as stiffness and damping are considered. In this study, the Kalman filter (KF) design for structural systems with unknown excitation is expressed. External excitations, such as earthquakes, wind or any other forces are not measured or not available. The purpose of this filter is its strengths to estimate the state variables of the system in the presence of unknown input. Also least squares estimation (LSE) method with unknown input is studied. Estimates of parameters have been adopted. Finally, using two examples advantages and drawbacks of both methods are studied.

Keywords: Kalman filter (KF), least square estimation (LSE), structural health monitoring (SHM), structural system identification

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Authors: Ammara Mehmood, Aneela Zameer, Muhammad Asif Zahoor Raja, Muhammad Faisal Fateh

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In this work, the strength of bio-inspired computational intelligence based technique is exploited for parameter estimation for the periodic signals using Continuous Differential Evolution (CDE) by defining an error function in the mean square sense. Multidimensional and nonlinear nature of the problem emerging in sinusoidal signal models along with noise makes it a challenging optimization task, which is dealt with robustness and effectiveness of CDE to ensure convergence and avoid trapping in local minima. In the proposed scheme of Continuous Differential Evolution based Signal Parameter Estimation (CDESPE), unknown adjustable weights of the signal system identification model are optimized utilizing CDE algorithm. The performance of CDESPE model is validated through statistics based various performance indices on a sufficiently large number of runs in terms of estimation error, mean squared error and Thiel’s inequality coefficient. Efficacy of CDESPE is examined by comparison with the actual parameters of the system, Genetic Algorithm based outcomes and from various deterministic approaches at different signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) levels.

Keywords: parameter estimation, bio-inspired computing, continuous differential evolution (CDE), periodic signals

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Authors: Md Al Masum Bhuiyan, Maria C. Mariani, Osei K. Tweneboah

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In the present work, we develop a technique for estimating the volatility of financial time series by using stochastic differential equation. Taking the daily closing prices from developed and emergent stock markets as the basis, we argue that the incorporation of stochastic volatility into the time-varying parameter estimation significantly improves the forecasting performance via Maximum Likelihood Estimation. While using the technique, we see the long-memory behavior of data sets and one-step-ahead-predicted log-volatility with ±2 standard errors despite the variation of the observed noise from a Normal mixture distribution, because the financial data studied is not fully Gaussian. Also, the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process followed in this work simulates well the financial time series, which aligns our estimation algorithm with large data sets due to the fact that this algorithm has good convergence properties.

Keywords: financial time series, maximum likelihood estimation, Ornstein-Uhlenbeck type models, stochastic volatility model

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Authors: Ludovic Fabre, Paola Melani, Patrick Lemaire

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The goal of this study was to test whether and how emotions influence drone operators in estimation skills. The empirical study was run in the context of numerical estimation. Participants saw a two-digit number together with a collection of cars. They had to indicate whether the stimuli collection was larger or smaller than the number. The two-digit numbers ranged from 12 to 27, and collections included 3-36 cars. The presentation of the collections was dynamic (each car moved 30 deg. per second on the right). Half the collections were smaller collections (including fewer than 20 cars), and the other collections were larger collections (i.e., more than 20 cars). Splits between the number of cars in a collection and the two-digit number were either small (± 1 or 2 units; e.g., the collection included 17 cars and the two-digit number was 19) or larger (± 8 or 9 units; e.g., 17 cars and '9'). Half the collections included more items (and half fewer items) than the number indicated by the two-digit number. Before and after each trial, participants saw an image inducing negative emotions (e.g., mutilations) or neutral emotions (e.g., candle) selected from International Affective Picture System (IAPS). At the end of each trial, participants had to say if the second picture was the same as or different from the first. Results showed different effects of emotions on RTs and percent errors. Participants’ performance was modulated by emotions. They were slower on negative trials compared to the neutral trials, especially on the most difficult items. They errored more on small-split than on large-split problems. Moreover, participants highly overestimated the number of cars when in a negative emotional state. These findings suggest that emotions influence numerical estimation, that effects of emotion in estimation interact with stimuli characteristics. They have important implications for understanding the role of emotions on estimation skills, and more generally, on how emotions influence cognition.

Keywords: drone operators, emotion, numerical estimation, arithmetic

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Authors: Bianca A. Szasz, Keiichi Okuyama

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As the human race will continue to explore the space by creating new space transportation means and sending them to other planets, the enhance of atmospheric reentry study is crucial. In this context, an analysis of mass recession rate of ablative materials for thermal shields of reentry spacecrafts is important to be carried out. The paper describes a new estimation method for calculating the mass recession of an ablator system, this method combining an old method with a new one, which was recently elaborated by Okuyama et al. The space mission of USERS spacecraft is taken as a case study and the possibility of implementing lighter ablative materials in future space missions is taking into consideration.

Keywords: ablator system, mass recession, reentry spacecraft, ablative materials

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Authors: Ibrahim Elnour Abdelrahman Eltayeb

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Computational modelling is a method used to investigate joint forces during a movement. It can get high accuracy in the joint forces via subject-specific models. However, the construction of subject-specific models remains time-consuming and expensive. The purpose of this paper was to identify what alterations we can make to generic computational models to get a better estimation of the joint forces. It appraised the impact of these alterations on the accuracy of the estimated joint forces. It found different strategies of alterations: joint model, muscle model, and an optimisation problem. All these alterations affected joint contact force accuracy, so showing the potential for improving the model predictions without involving costly and time-consuming medical images.

Keywords: joint force, joint model, optimisation problem, validation

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Authors: K. Ebrahimi, Sh. Shahid, M. Mohammadi Ghaleni, M. H. Omid

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The longitudinal dispersion coefficient is a crucial parameter for 1-D water quality analysis of riverine flows. So far, different types of empirical equations for estimation of the coefficient have been developed, based on various case studies. The main objective of this paper is to develop an empirical equation for estimation of the coefficient for a riverine flow. For this purpose, a set of tracer experiments was conducted, involving salt tracer, at three sections located in downstream of a lengthy canal. Tracer data were measured in three mixing lengths along the canal including; 45, 75 and 100m. According to the results, the obtained coefficients from new developed empirical equation gave an encouraging level of agreement with the theoretical values.

Keywords: coefficients, dispersion, river, tracer, water quality

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Authors: S. M. Kulkarni, D. S. Bormane, S. L. Nalbalwar

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The rapid development in the technology have dramatic impact on the medical health care field. Medical data base obtained with latest machines like CT Machine, MRI scanner requires large amount of memory storage and also it requires large bandwidth for transmission of data in telemedicine applications. Thus, there is need for video compression. As the database of medical images contain number of frames (slices), hence while coding of these images there is need of motion estimation. Motion estimation finds out movement of objects in an image sequence and gets motion vectors which represents estimated motion of object in the frame. In order to reduce temporal redundancy between successive frames of video sequence, motion compensation is preformed. In this paper three step search (TSS) block matching algorithm is implemented on different types of video sequences. It is shown that three step search algorithm produces better quality performance and less computational time compared with exhaustive full search algorithm.

Keywords: block matching, exhaustive search motion estimation, three step search, video compression

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Authors: Tae An Kim, Hyo Lim Kang, Hye Won Han, Seung Ho Han

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The drive shaft of passenger vehicle has its own function such as transmitting the engine torque from the gearbox and differential gears to the wheels. It must also compensate for all variations in angle or length resulting from manoeuvring and deflection for perfect synchronization between joints. Torsional fatigue failures occur frequently at the connection parts of the spline joints in the end of the drive shaft. In this study, the fatigue life of a drive shaft of passenger vehicle was estimated by using the finite element analysis. A commercial software of n-Code was applied under twisting load conditions, i.e. 0~134kgf•m and 0~188kgf•m, in which the shear strain range-fatigue life relationship considering Signed Shear method, Smith-Watson-Topper equation, Neuber-Hoffman Seeger method, size sensitivity factor and surface roughness effect was taken into account. The estimated fatigue life was verified by a twisting load test of the real drive shaft in a test rig. (Human Resource Training Project for Industry Matched R & D, KIAT, N036200004).

Keywords: drive shaft, fatigue life estimation, passenger vehicle, shear strain range-fatigue life relationship, torsional fatigue failure

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Authors: O. T. Oluriz, O. D. Akinyemi, J. A.Olowofela, O. A. Idowu, S. A. Ganiyu

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This study was carried out using aeromagnetic data which record variation in the magnitude of the earth magnetic field in order to detect local changes in the properties of the underlying geology. The aeromagnetic data (Sheet No. 261) was acquired from the archives of Nigeria Geological Survey Agency of Nigeria, obtained in 2009. The study present estimation of source parameters within an area of about 3,025 square kilometers on geographic latitude to and longitude to within Ibadan and it’s environs in Oyo State, southwestern Nigeria. The area under study belongs to part of basement complex in southwestern Nigeria. Estimation of source parameters of aeromagnetic data was achieve through the application of source imaging parameters (SPI) techniques that provide delineation, depth, dip contact, susceptibility contrast and mineral potentials of magnetic signatures within the region. The depth to the magnetic sources in the area ranges from 0.675 km to 4.48 km. The estimated depth limit to shallow sources is 0.695 km and depth to deep sources is 4.48 km. The apparent susceptibility values of the entire study area obtained ranges from 0.01 to 0.005 [SI]. This study has shown that the magnetic susceptibility within study area is controlled mainly by super paramagnetic minerals.

Keywords: aeromagnetic, basement complex, meta-sediment, precambrian

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Authors: Khaled M. El-Naggar

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This paper presents a fast and efficient technique for monitoring and supervising power system disturbances generated due to dynamic performance of power systems or faults. Monitoring power system quantities involve monitoring fundamental voltage, current magnitudes, and their frequencies as well as their negative and zero sequence components under different operating conditions. The proposed technique is based on simulated annealing optimization technique (SA). The method uses digital set of measurements for the voltage or current waveforms at power system bus to perform the estimation process digitally. The algorithm is tested using different simulated data to monitor the symmetrical components of power system waveforms. Different study cases are considered in this work. Effects of number of samples, sampling frequency and the sample window size are studied. Results are reported and discussed.

Keywords: estimation, faults, measurement, symmetrical components

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Authors: Alina Muradyan, Lina Babayan, Arsen Nanyan, Gohar Galstyan, Vigen Khachatryan

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We present a photometric method for identifying stars, galaxies and quasars in multi-color surveys, which uses a library of ∼> 65000 color templates for comparison with observed objects. The method aims for extracting the information content of object colors in a statistically correct way, and performs a classification as well as a redshift estimation for galaxies and quasars in a unified approach based on the same probability density functions. For the redshift estimation, we employ an advanced version of the Minimum Error Variance estimator which determines the redshift error from the redshift dependent probability density function itself. The method was originally developed for the Calar Alto Deep Imaging Survey (CADIS), but is now used in a wide variety of survey projects. We checked its performance by spectroscopy of CADIS objects, where the method provides high reliability (6 errors among 151 objects with R < 24), especially for the quasar selection, and redshifts accurate within σz ≈ 0.03 for galaxies and σz ≈ 0.1 for quasars. For an optimization of future survey efforts, a few model surveys are compared, which are designed to use the same total amount of telescope time but different sets of broad-band and medium-band filters. Their performance is investigated by Monte-Carlo simulations as well as by analytic evaluation in terms of classification and redshift estimation. If photon noise were the only error source, broad-band surveys and medium-band surveys should perform equally well, as long as they provide the same spectral coverage. In practice, medium-band surveys show superior performance due to their higher tolerance for calibration errors and cosmic variance. Finally, we discuss the relevance of color calibration and derive important conclusions for the issues of library design and choice of filters. The calibration accuracy poses strong constraints on an accurate classification, which are most critical for surveys with few, broad and deeply exposed filters, but less severe for surveys with many, narrow and less deep filters.

Keywords: VO, ArVO, DFBS, FITS, image processing, data analysis

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Authors: Eduardo C. Guardia, Jose W. M. Lima, Afonso H. M. Santos

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This paper presents a nonparametric method to obtain the hazard rate “Bathtub curve” for power system components. The model is a mixture of the three known phases of a component life, the decreasing failure rate (DFR), the constant failure rate (CFR) and the increasing failure rate (IFR) represented by three parametric Weibull models. The parameters are obtained from a simultaneous fitting process of the model to the Kernel nonparametric hazard rate curve. From the Weibull parameters and failure rate curves the useful lifetime and the characteristic lifetime were defined. To demonstrate the model the historic time-to-failure of distribution transformers were used as an example. The resulted “Bathtub curve” shows the failure rate for the equipment lifetime which can be applied in economic and replacement decision models.

Keywords: bathtub curve, failure analysis, lifetime estimation, parameter estimation, Weibull distribution

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Authors: Megha Agarwal

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The research paper is an effort to compare the earnings based and cash flow based methods of valuation of an enterprise. The theoretically equivalent methods based on either earnings such as Residual Earnings Model (REM), Abnormal Earnings Growth Model (AEGM), Residual Operating Income Method (ReOIM), Abnormal Operating Income Growth Model (AOIGM) and its extensions multipliers such as price/earnings ratio, price/book value ratio; or cash flow based models such as Dividend Valuation Method (DVM) and Free Cash Flow Method (FCFM) all provide different estimates of valuation of the Indian giant corporate Reliance India Limited (RIL). An ex-post analysis of published accounting and financial data for four financial years from 2008-09 to 2011-12 has been conducted. A comparison of these valuation estimates with the actual market capitalization of the company shows that the complex accounting based model AOIGM provides closest forecasts. These different estimates may be derived due to inconsistencies in discount rate, growth rates and the other forecasted variables. Although inputs for earnings based models may be available to the investor and analysts through published statements, precise estimation of free cash flows may be better undertaken by the internal management. The estimation of value from more stable parameters as residual operating income and RNOA could be considered superior to the valuations from more volatile return on equity.

Keywords: earnings, cash flows, valuation, Residual Earnings Model (REM)

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Authors: Haniye Dehestani, Yadollah Ordokhani

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In this work, we present an efficient approach for solving variable-order time-fractional partial differential equations, which are based on Legendre and Laguerre polynomials. First, we introduced the pseudo-operational matrices of integer and variable fractional order of integration by use of some properties of Riemann-Liouville fractional integral. Then, applied together with collocation method and Legendre-Laguerre functions for solving variable-order time-fractional partial differential equations. Also, an estimation of the error is presented. At last, we investigate numerical examples which arise in physics to demonstrate the accuracy of the present method. In comparison results obtained by the present method with the exact solution and the other methods reveals that the method is very effective.

Keywords: collocation method, fractional partial differential equations, legendre-laguerre functions, pseudo-operational matrix of integration

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Authors: M. M. Sadeghi, S. Vahdani

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Masonry dome structures had been widely used for covering large spans in the past. The seismic assessment of these historical structures is very complicated due to the nonlinear behavior of the material, their rigidness, and special stability configuration. The assessment method based on energy balance concept, as well as the standard pushover analysis, is used to evaluate the effectiveness of these methods in the case of masonry dome structures. The Soltanieh dome building is used as an example to which two methods are applied. The performance points are given from superimposing the capacity, and demand curves in Acceleration Displacement Response Spectra (ADRS) and energy coordination are compared with the nonlinear time history analysis as the exact result. The results show a good agreement between the dynamic analysis and the energy balance method, but standard pushover method does not provide an acceptable estimation.

Keywords: energy balance method, pushover analysis, time history analysis, masonry dome

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Authors: Khaled M. El Naggar

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This paper introduces a digital method for fault section identification in transmission lines. The method uses digital set of the measured short circuit current to locate faults in electrical power systems. The digitized current is used to construct a set of overdetermined system of equations. The problem is then constructed and solved using the proposed digital optimization technique to find the fault distance. The proposed optimization methodology is an application of simulated annealing optimization technique. The method is tested using practical case study to evaluate the proposed method. The accurate results obtained show that the algorithm can be used as a powerful tool in the area of power system protection.

Keywords: optimization, estimation, faults, measurement, high voltage, simulated annealing

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Authors: Andrey V. Timofeev, Viktor M. Denisov

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A robust sequential nonparametric method is proposed for adaptation to background noise parameters for real-time. The distribution of background noise was modelled like to Huber contamination mixture. The method is designed to operate as an adaptation-unit, which is included inside a detection subsystem of an integrated multichannel monitoring system. The proposed method guarantees the given size of a nonasymptotic confidence set for noise parameters. Properties of the suggested method are rigorously proved. The proposed algorithm has been successfully tested in real conditions of a functioning C-OTDR monitoring system, which was designed to monitor railways.

Keywords: guaranteed estimation, multichannel monitoring systems, non-asymptotic confidence set, contamination mixture

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Authors: Bin Ji, Kai Xu, Shunyu Yao, Jingjing Liu, Ye Pan

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Human pose estimation is a popular research area in computer vision for its important application in human-machine interface. In recent years, 2D human pose estimation based on convolution neural network has got great progress and development. However, in more and more practical applications, people often need to deal with tasks based on video. It’s not far-fetched for us to consider how to combine the spatial and temporal information together to achieve a balance between computing cost and accuracy. To address this issue, this study proposes a new spatiotemporal model, namely Spatiotemporal Net (STNet) to combine both temporal and spatial information more rationally. As a result, the predicted keypoints heatmap is potentially more accurate and spatially more precise. Under the condition of ensuring the recognition accuracy, the algorithm deal with spatiotemporal series in a decoupled way, which greatly reduces the computation of the model, thus reducing the resource consumption. This study demonstrate the effectiveness of our network over the Penn Action Dataset, and the results indicate superior performance of our network over the existing methods.

Keywords: convolutional long short-term memory, deep learning, human pose estimation, spatiotemporal series

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Authors: Tea Poklepović, Zdravka Aljinović, Branka Marasović

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Due to the importance of yield curve and its estimation it is inevitable to have valid methods for yield curve forecasting in cases when there are scarce issues of securities and/or week trade on a secondary market. Therefore in this paper, after the estimation of weekly yield curves on Croatian financial market from October 2011 to August 2012 using Nelson-Siegel and Svensson models, yield curves are forecasted using Vector auto-regressive model and Neural networks. In general, it can be concluded that both forecasting methods have good prediction abilities where forecasting of yield curves based on Nelson Siegel estimation model give better results in sense of lower Mean Squared Error than forecasting based on Svensson model Also, in this case Neural networks provide slightly better results. Finally, it can be concluded that most appropriate way of yield curve prediction is neural networks using Nelson-Siegel estimation of yield curves.

Keywords: Nelson-Siegel Model, neural networks, Svensson Model, vector autoregressive model, yield curve

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Authors: A. Moawad, K. C. Yao, A. Mansour, R. Gautier

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The detecting of an occupied frequency band is a major issue in cognitive radio systems. The detection process becomes difficult if the signal occupying the band of interest has faded amplitude due to multipath effects. These effects make it hard for an occupying user to be detected. This work mitigates the missed-detection problem in the context of cognitive radio in frequency-selective fading channel by proposing blind channel estimation method that is based on scattering transform. By initially applying conventional energy detection, the missed-detection probability is evaluated, and if it is greater than or equal to 50%, channel estimation is applied on the received signal followed by channel equalization to reduce the channel effects. In the proposed channel estimator, we modify the Morlet wavelet by using its first derivative for better frequency resolution. A mathematical description of the modified function and its frequency resolution is formulated in this work. The improved frequency resolution is required to follow the spectral variation of the channel. The channel estimation error is evaluated in the mean-square sense for different channel settings, and energy detection is applied to the equalized received signal. The simulation results show improvement in reducing the missed-detection probability as compared to the detection based on principal component analysis. This improvement is achieved at the expense of increased estimator complexity, which depends on the number of wavelet filters as related to the channel taps. Also, the detection performance shows an improvement in detection probability for low signal-to-noise scenarios over principal component analysis- based energy detection.

Keywords: channel estimation, cognitive radio, scattering transform, spectrum sensing

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Authors: Saemee Jun, Dong-Hyeon Shin, Tae-Sang Ahn, Hyung-Joon Kim

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Building loss estimation methodologies which have been advanced considerably in recent decades are usually used to estimate socio and economic impacts resulting from seismic structural damage. In accordance with these methods, this paper presents the evaluation of an annual loss probability of a reinforced concrete moment resisting frame designed according to Korean Building Code. The annual loss probability is defined by (1) a fragility curve obtained from a capacity spectrum method which is similar to a method adopted from HAZUS, and (2) a seismic hazard curve derived from annual frequencies of exceedance per peak ground acceleration. Seismic fragilities are computed to calculate the annual loss probability of a certain structure using functions depending on structural capacity, seismic demand, structural response and the probability of exceeding damage state thresholds. This study carried out a nonlinear static analysis to obtain the capacity of a RC moment resisting frame selected as a prototype building. The analysis results show that the probability of being extensive structural damage in the prototype building is expected to 0.004% in a year.

Keywords: expected annual loss, loss estimation, RC structure, fragility analysis

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Authors: Qian Zhao, Shi-Qi Liu, Bo Guo, Zhi-Jun Cheng, Xiao-Yue Wu

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Cold standby redundancy is considered to be an effective mechanism for improving system reliability and is widely used in industrial engineering. However, because of the complexity of the reliability structure, there is little literature studying on the residual life of cold standby system consisting of complex components. In this paper, a simulation method is presented to predict the residual life of k-out-of-n cold standby system. In practical cases, failure information of a system is either unknown, partly unknown or completely known. Our proposed method is designed to deal with the three scenarios, respectively. Differences between the procedures are analyzed. Finally, numerical examples are used to validate the proposed simulation method.

Keywords: cold standby system, k-out-of-n, residual life, simulation sampling

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Authors: E. K. Naseela, B. M. Dodamani, Chaithra Chandran

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The GIS and remote sensing techniques facilitate accurate estimation of surface runoff from watershed. In the present study an attempt has been made to evaluate the applicability of Natural Resources Service Curve Number method using GIS and Remote sensing technique in the upper Krishna basin (69,425 Sq.km). Landsat 7 (with resolution 30 m) satellite data for the year 2012 has been used for the preparation of land use land cover (LU/LC) map. The hydrologic soil group is mapped using GIS platform. The weighted curve numbers (CN) for all the 5 subcatchments calculated on the basis of LU/LC type and hydrologic soil class in the area by considering antecedent moisture condition. Monthly rainfall data was available for 58 raingauge stations. Overlay technique is adopted for generating weighted curve number. Results of the study show that land use changes determined from satellite images are useful in studying the runoff response of the basin. The results showed that there is no significant difference between observed and estimated runoff depths. For each subcatchment, statistically positive correlations were detected between observed and estimated runoff depth (0.6Keywords: curve number, GIS, remote sensing, runoff

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Authors: Zaouche Mohamed, Amini Mohamed, Foughali Khaled, Aitkaid Souhila, Bouchiha Nihad Sarah

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The aerodynamic coefficients are important in the evaluation of an aircraft performance and stability-control characteristics. These coefficients also can be used in the automatic flight control systems and mathematical model of flight simulator. The study of the aerodynamic aspect of flying systems is a reserved domain and inaccessible for the developers. Doing tests in a wind tunnel to extract aerodynamic forces and moments requires a specific and expensive means. Besides, the glaring lack of published documentation in this field of study makes the aerodynamic coefficients determination complicated. This work is devoted to the identification of an aerodynamic model, by using an aircraft in virtual simulated environment. We deal with the identification of the system, we present an environment framework based on Software In the Loop (SIL) methodology and we use Microsoft^TM Flight Simulator (FS-2004) as the environment for plane simulation. We propose The Total Least Squares Estimation technique (TLSE) to identify the aerodynamic parameters, which are unknown, variable, classified and used in the expression of the piloting law. In this paper, we define each aerodynamic coefficient as the mean of its numerical values. All other variations are considered as modeling uncertainties that will be compensated by the robustness of the piloting control.

Keywords: aircraft aerodynamic model, total least squares estimation, piloting the aircraft, robust control, Microsoft Flight Simulator, MQ-1 predator

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Authors: J. J. Vargas, N. Prieto, L. A. Toro

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Control charts are commonly used to monitor processes involving either variable or attribute of quality characteristics and determining the control limits as a critical task for quality engineers to improve the processes. Nonetheless, in some applications it is necessary to include an estimation of efficiency. In this paper, the ability to define the efficiency of an industrial process was added to a control chart by means of incorporating a data envelopment analysis (DEA) approach. In depth, a Bayesian estimation was performed to calculate the posterior probability distribution of parameters as means and variance and covariance matrix. This technique allows to analyse the data set without the need of using the hypothetical large sample implied in the problem and to be treated as an approximation to the finite sample distribution. A rejection simulation method was carried out to generate random variables from the parameter functions. Each resulting vector was used by stochastic DEA model during several cycles for establishing the distribution of each efficiency measures for each DMU (decision making units). A control limit was calculated with model obtained and if a condition of a low level efficiency of DMU is presented, system efficiency is out of control. In the efficiency calculated a global optimum was reached, which ensures model reliability.

Keywords: data envelopment analysis, DEA, Multivariate control chart, rejection simulation method

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