Search results for: Pascal Crubleau
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 63

Search results for: Pascal Crubleau

3 Valorization of Surveillance Data and Assessment of the Sensitivity of a Surveillance System for an Infectious Disease Using a Capture-Recapture Model

Authors: Jean-Philippe Amat, Timothée Vergne, Aymeric Hans, Bénédicte Ferry, Pascal Hendrikx, Jackie Tapprest, Barbara Dufour, Agnès Leblond

Abstract:

The surveillance of infectious diseases is necessary to describe their occurrence and help the planning, implementation and evaluation of risk mitigation activities. However, the exact number of detected cases may remain unknown whether surveillance is based on serological tests because identifying seroconversion may be difficult. Moreover, incomplete detection of cases or outbreaks is a recurrent issue in the field of disease surveillance. This study addresses these two issues. Using a viral animal disease as an example (equine viral arteritis), the goals were to establish suitable rules for identifying seroconversion in order to estimate the number of cases and outbreaks detected by a surveillance system in France between 2006 and 2013, and to assess the sensitivity of this system by estimating the total number of outbreaks that occurred during this period (including unreported outbreaks) using a capture-recapture model. Data from horses which exhibited at least one positive result in serology using viral neutralization test between 2006 and 2013 were used for analysis (n=1,645). Data consisted of the annual antibody titers and the location of the subjects (towns). A consensus among multidisciplinary experts (specialists in the disease and its laboratory diagnosis, epidemiologists) was reached to consider seroconversion as a change in antibody titer from negative to at least 32 or as a three-fold or greater increase. The number of seroconversions was counted for each town and modeled using a unilist zero-truncated binomial (ZTB) capture-recapture model with R software. The binomial denominator was the number of horses tested in each infected town. Using the defined rules, 239 cases located in 177 towns (outbreaks) were identified from 2006 to 2013. Subsequently, the sensitivity of the surveillance system was estimated as the ratio of the number of detected outbreaks to the total number of outbreaks that occurred (including unreported outbreaks) estimated using the ZTB model. The total number of outbreaks was estimated at 215 (95% credible interval CrI95%: 195-249) and the surveillance sensitivity at 82% (CrI95%: 71-91). The rules proposed for identifying seroconversion may serve future research. Such rules, adjusted to the local environment, could conceivably be applied in other countries with surveillance programs dedicated to this disease. More generally, defining ad hoc algorithms for interpreting the antibody titer could be useful regarding other human and animal diseases and zoonosis when there is a lack of accurate information in the literature about the serological response in naturally infected subjects. This study shows how capture-recapture methods may help to estimate the sensitivity of an imperfect surveillance system and to valorize surveillance data. The sensitivity of the surveillance system of equine viral arteritis is relatively high and supports its relevance to prevent the disease spreading.

Keywords: Bayesian inference, capture-recapture, epidemiology, equine viral arteritis, infectious disease, seroconversion, surveillance

Procedia PDF Downloads 297
2 Safety Considerations of Furanics for Sustainable Applications in Advanced Biorefineries

Authors: Anitha Muralidhara, Victor Engelen, Christophe Len, Pascal Pandard, Guy Marlair

Abstract:

Production of bio-based chemicals and materials from lignocellulosic biomass is gaining tremendous importance in advanced bio-refineries while aiming towards progressive replacement of petroleum based chemicals in transportation fuels and commodity polymers. One such attempt has resulted in the production of key furan derivatives (FD) such as furfural, HMF, MMF etc., via acid catalyzed dehydration (ACD) of C6 and C5 sugars, which are further converted into key chemicals or intermediates (such as Furandicarboxylic acid, Furfuryl alcohol etc.,). In subsequent processes, many high potential FD are produced, that can be converted into high added value polymers or high energy density biofuels. During ACD, an unavoidable polyfuranic byproduct is generated which is called humins. The family of FD is very large with varying chemical structures and diverse physicochemical properties. Accordingly, the associated risk profiles may largely vary. Hazardous Material (Haz-mat) classification systems such as GHS (CLP in the EU) and the UN TDG Model Regulations for transport of dangerous goods are one of the preliminary requirements for all chemicals for their appropriate classification, labelling, packaging, safe storage, and transportation. Considering the growing application routes of FD, it becomes important to notice the limited access to safety related information (safety data sheets available only for famous compounds such as HMF, furfural etc.,) in these internationally recognized haz-mat classification systems. However, these classifications do not necessarily provide information about the extent of risk involved when the chemical is used in any specific application. Factors such as thermal stability, speed of combustion, chemical incompatibilities, etc., can equally influence the safety profile of a compound, that are clearly out of the scope of any haz-mat classification system. Irrespective of the bio-based origin, FD has so far received inconsistent remarks concerning their toxicity profiles. With such inconsistencies, there is a fear that, a large family of FD may also follow extreme judgmental scenarios like ionic liquids, by ranking some compounds as extremely thermally stable, non-flammable, etc., Unless clarified, these messages could lead to misleading judgements while ranking the chemical based on its hazard rating. Safety is a key aspect in any sustainable biorefinery operation/facility, which is often underscored or neglected. To fill up these existing data gaps and to address ambiguities and discrepancies, the current study focuses on giving preliminary insights on safety assessment of FD and their potential targeted by-products. With the available information in the literature and obtained experimental results, physicochemical safety, environmental safety as well as (a scenario based) fire safety profiles of key FD, as well as side streams such as humins and levulinic acid, will be considered. With this, the study focuses on defining patterns and trends that gives coherent safety related information for existing and newly synthesized FD in the market for better functionality and sustainable applications.

Keywords: furanics, humins, safety, thermal and fire hazard, toxicity

Procedia PDF Downloads 166
1 Protonic Conductivity Highlighted by Impedance Measurement of Y-Doped BaZrO3 Synthesized by Supercritical Hydrothermal Process

Authors: Melanie Francois, Gilles Caboche, Frederic Demoisson, Francois Maeght, Maria Paola Carpanese, Lionel Combemale, Pascal Briois

Abstract:

Finding new clean, and efficient way for energy production is one of the actual global challenges. Advances in fuel cell technology have shown that, for few years, Protonic Ceramic Fuel Cell (PCFC) has attracted much attention in the field of new hydrogen energy thanks to their lower working temperature, possible higher efficiency, and better durability than classical SOFC. On the contrary of SOFC, where O²⁻ oxygen ion is the charge carrier, PCFC works with H⁺ proton as a charge carrier. Consequently, the lower activation energy of proton diffusion compared to the one of oxygen ion explains those benefits and allows PCFC to work in the 400-600°C temperature range. Doped-BaCeO₃ is currently the most chosen material for this application because of its high protonic conductivity; for example, BaCe₀.₉Y₀.₁O₃ δ exhibits a total conductivity of 1.5×10⁻² S.cm⁻¹ at 600°C in wet H₂. However, BaCeO₃ based perovskite has low stability in H₂O and/or CO₂ containing atmosphere, which limits their practical application. On the contrary, BaZrO₃ based perovskite exhibits good chemical stability but lower total conductivity than BaCeO₃ due to its larger grain boundary resistance. By substituting zirconium with 20% of yttrium, it is possible to achieve a total conductivity of 2.5×10⁻² S.cm⁻¹ at 600°C in wet H₂. However, the high refractory property of BaZr₀.₈Y₀.₂O₃-δ (noted BZY20) causes problems to obtain a dense membrane with large grains. Thereby, using a synthesis process that gives fine particles could allow better sinterability and thus decrease the number of grain boundaries leading to a higher total conductivity. In this work, BaZr₀.₈Y₀.₂O₃-δ have been synthesized by classical batch hydrothermal device and by a continuous hydrothermal device developed at ICB laboratory. The two variants of this process are able to work in supercritical conditions, leading to the formation of nanoparticles, which could be sintered at a lower temperature. The as-synthesized powder exhibits the right composition for the perovskite phase, impurities such as BaCO₃ and YO-OH were detected at very low concentration. Microstructural investigation and densification rate measurement showed that the addition of 1 wt% of ZnO as sintering aid and a sintering at 1550°C for 5 hours give high densified electrolyte material. Furthermore, it is necessary to heat the synthesized powder prior to the sintering to prevent the formation of secondary phases. It is assumed that this thermal treatment homogenizes the crystal structure of the powder and reduces the number of defects into the bulk grains. Electrochemical impedance spectroscopy investigations in various atmospheres and a large range of temperature (200-700°C) were then performed on sintered samples, and the protonic conductivity of BZY20 has been highlighted. Further experiments on half-cell, NiO-BZY20 as anode and BZY20 as electrolyte, are in progress.

Keywords: hydrothermal synthesis, impedance measurement, Y-doped BaZrO₃, proton conductor

Procedia PDF Downloads 138