Search results for: forecast aggregation

Authors: Ali Kazemi

Abstract:

Those within the volatile and interconnected international economic markets, appropriately predicting market trends, hold substantial fees for traders and financial establishments. Traditional device mastering strategies have made full-size strides in forecasting marketplace movements; however, monetary data's complicated and networked nature calls for extra sophisticated processes. This observation offers a groundbreaking method for monetary marketplace prediction that leverages the synergistic capability of Graph Convolutional Networks (GCNs) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks. Our suggested algorithm is meticulously designed to forecast the traits of inventory market indices and cryptocurrency costs, utilizing a comprehensive dataset spanning from January 1, 2015, to December 31, 2023. This era, marked by sizable volatility and transformation in financial markets, affords a solid basis for schooling and checking out our predictive version. Our algorithm integrates diverse facts to construct a dynamic economic graph that correctly reflects market intricacies. We meticulously collect opening, closing, and high and low costs daily for key inventory marketplace indices (e.g., S&P 500, NASDAQ) and widespread cryptocurrencies (e.g., Bitcoin, Ethereum), ensuring a holistic view of marketplace traits. Daily trading volumes are also incorporated to seize marketplace pastime and liquidity, providing critical insights into the market's shopping for and selling dynamics. Furthermore, recognizing the profound influence of the monetary surroundings on financial markets, we integrate critical macroeconomic signs with hobby fees, inflation rates, GDP increase, and unemployment costs into our model. Our GCN algorithm is adept at learning the relational patterns amongst specific financial devices represented as nodes in a comprehensive market graph. Edges in this graph encapsulate the relationships based totally on co-movement styles and sentiment correlations, enabling our version to grasp the complicated community of influences governing marketplace moves. Complementing this, our LSTM algorithm is trained on sequences of the spatial-temporal illustration discovered through the GCN, enriched with historic fee and extent records. This lets the LSTM seize and expect temporal marketplace developments accurately. Inside the complete assessment of our GCN-LSTM algorithm across the inventory marketplace and cryptocurrency datasets, the version confirmed advanced predictive accuracy and profitability compared to conventional and opportunity machine learning to know benchmarks. Specifically, the model performed a Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of 0.85%, indicating high precision in predicting day-by-day charge movements. The RMSE was recorded at 1.2%, underscoring the model's effectiveness in minimizing tremendous prediction mistakes, which is vital in volatile markets. Furthermore, when assessing the model's predictive performance on directional market movements, it achieved an accuracy rate of 78%, significantly outperforming the benchmark models, averaging an accuracy of 65%. This high degree of accuracy is instrumental for techniques that predict the course of price moves. This study showcases the efficacy of mixing graph-based totally and sequential deep learning knowledge in economic marketplace prediction and highlights the fee of a comprehensive, records-pushed evaluation framework. Our findings promise to revolutionize investment techniques and hazard management practices, offering investors and economic analysts a powerful device to navigate the complexities of cutting-edge economic markets.

Keywords: financial market prediction, graph convolutional networks (GCNs), long short-term memory (LSTM), cryptocurrency forecasting

Procedia PDF Downloads 66

Authors: Mariza Kaskara, Stella Girtsou, Maria Prodromou, Alexia Tsouni, Christodoulos Mettas, Stavroula Alatza, Kyriaki Fotiou, Marios Tzouvaras, Charalampos Kontoes, Diofantos Hadjimitsis

Abstract:

Natural hazard assessment and monitoring are crucial in managing the risks associated with fires, floods, and geohazards, particularly in regions prone to these natural disasters, such as Greece and Cyprus. Recent advancements in technology, developed by the BEYOND Center of Excellence of the National Observatory of Athens, have been successfully applied in Greece and are now set to be transferred to Cyprus. The implementation of these advanced technologies in Greece has significantly improved the country's ability to respond to these natural hazards. For wildfire risk assessment, a scalar wildfire occurrence risk index is created based on the predictions of machine learning models. Predicting fire danger is crucial for the sustainable management of forest fires as it provides essential information for designing effective prevention measures and facilitating response planning for potential fire incidents. A reliable forecast of fire danger is a key component of integrated forest fire management and is heavily influenced by various factors that affect fire ignition and spread. The fire risk model is validated by the sensitivity and specificity metric. For flood risk assessment, a multi-faceted approach is employed, including the application of remote sensing techniques, the collection and processing of data from the most recent population and building census, technical studies and field visits, as well as hydrological and hydraulic simulations. All input data are used to create precise flood hazard maps according to various flooding scenarios, detailed flood vulnerability and flood exposure maps, which will finally produce the flood risk map. Critical points are identified, and mitigation measures are proposed for the worst-case scenario, namely, refuge areas are defined, and escape routes are designed. Flood risk maps can assist in raising awareness and save lives. Validation is carried out through historical flood events using remote sensing data and records from the civil protection authorities. For geohazards monitoring (e.g., landslides, subsidence), Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) and optical satellite imagery are combined with geomorphological and meteorological data and other landslide/ground deformation contributing factors. To monitor critical infrastructures, including dams, advanced InSAR methodologies are used for identifying surface movements through time. Monitoring these hazards provides valuable information for understanding processes and could lead to early warning systems to protect people and infrastructure. Validation is carried out through both geotechnical expert evaluations and visual inspections. The success of these systems in Greece has paved the way for their transfer to Cyprus to enhance Cyprus's capabilities in natural hazard assessment and monitoring. This transfer is being made through capacity building activities, fostering continuous collaboration between Greek and Cypriot experts. Apart from the knowledge transfer, small demonstration actions are implemented to showcase the effectiveness of these technologies in real-world scenarios. In conclusion, the transfer of advanced natural hazard assessment technologies from Greece to Cyprus represents a significant step forward in enhancing the region's resilience to disasters. EXCELSIOR project funds knowledge exchange, demonstration actions and capacity-building activities and is committed to empower Cyprus with the tools and expertise to effectively manage and mitigate the risks associated with these natural hazards. Acknowledgement:Authors acknowledge the 'EXCELSIOR': ERATOSTHENES: Excellence Research Centre for Earth Surveillance and Space-Based Monitoring of the Environment H2020 Widespread Teaming project.

Keywords: earth observation, monitoring, natural hazards, remote sensing

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