Search results for: analogue rice

Authors: Silvia D. Vaca, Benjamin J. Kuo, Joao Ricardo N. Vissoci, Catherine A. Staton, Linda W. Xu, Michael Muhumuza, Hussein Ssenyonjo, John Mukasa, Joel Kiryabwire, Henry E. Rice, Gerald A. Grant, Michael M. Haglund

Abstract:

Background: While delays to care exist in resource rich settings, greater delays are seen along the care continuum in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) largely due to limited healthcare capacity to address the disproportional rates of traumatic brain injury (TBI) in Sub Saharan Africa (SSA). While many LMICs have government subsidized systems to offset surgical costs, the burden of securing funds by the patients for medications, supplies, and CT diagnostics poses a significant challenge to timely surgical interventions. In Kampala Uganda, the challenge of obtaining timely CT scans is twofold. First, due to a lack of a functional CT scanner at the tertiary hospital, patients need to arrange their own transportation to the nearby private facility for CT scans. Second, self-financing for the private CT scans ranges from $80 - $130, which is near the average monthly income in Kampala. These bottlenecks contribute significantly to the care continuum delays and are associated with poor TBI outcomes. Objective: The objectives of this study are to 1) describe the temporal delays through a modified three delays model that fits the context of neurosurgical interventions for TBI patients in Kampala and 2) investigate the association between delays and mortality. Methods: Prospective data were collected for 563 TBI patients presenting to a tertiary hospital in Kampala from 1 June – 30 November 2016. Four time intervals were constructed along five time points: injury, hospital arrival, neurosurgical evaluation, CT results, and definitive surgery. Time interval differences among mild, moderate and severe TBI and their association with mortality were analyzed. Results: The mortality rate of all TBI patients presenting to MNRH was 9.6%, which ranged from 4.7% for mild and moderate TBI patients receiving surgery to 81.8% for severe TBI patients who failed to receive surgery. The duration from injury to surgery varied considerably across TBI severity with the largest gap seen between mild TBI (174 hours) and severe TBI (69 hours) patients. Further analysis revealed care continuum differences for interval 3 (neurosurgical evaluation to CT result) and 4 (CT result to surgery) between severe TBI patients (7 hours for interval 3 and 24 hours for interval 4) and mild TBI patients (19 hours for interval 3, and 96 hours for interval 4). These post-arrival delays were associated with mortality for mild (p=0.05) and moderate TBI (p=0.03) patients. Conclusions: To our knowledge, this is the first analysis using a modified ‘three delays’ framework to analyze the care continuum of TBI patients in Uganda from injury to surgery. We found significant associations between delays and mortality for mild and moderate TBI patients. As it currently stands, poorer outcomes were observed for these mild and moderate TBI patients who were managed non-operatively or failed to receive surgery while surgical services were shunted to more severely ill patients. While well intentioned, high mortality rates were still observed for the severe TBI patients managed surgically. These results suggest the need for future research to optimize triage practices, understand delay contributors, and improve pre-hospital logistical referral systems.

Keywords: care continuum, global neurosurgery, Kampala Uganda, LMIC, Mulago, prospective registry, traumatic brain injury

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Authors: V. Cesaroni, C. Girometta, A. Bernicchia, M. Brusoni, F. Corana, R. M. Baiguera, C. M. Cusaro, M. L. Guglielminetti, B. Mannucci, H. Kawagishi, C. Perini, A. M. Picco, P. Rossi, E. Salerni, E. Savino

Abstract:

Fungi of the genus Hericium contain various compounds with antibacterial activity, cytotoxic effect on cancer cells and bioactive molecules. Some of the active metabolites stimulate the synthesis of the Nerve Growth Factor (NGF). Recently, the effect of dietary supplement based on Hericium erinaceus on recognition memory and on hippocampal mossy fiber-CA3 neurotransmission was published. The aim of this study was to investigate the presence of Hericium species on Italian territory in order to isolate the strains for further studies and applications. The first step was to collect Hericium sporophores in Tuscany: H. alpestre Pers., H. coralloides (Scop.) Pers. and H. erinaceus (Bull.) Pers. were the species present. The strains of H. alpestre (H.a.1), H. coralloides (H.c.1) and H. erinaceus (H.e.1 & H.e.2) have been isolated in pure culture and preserved in the collection of the University of Pavia (MicUNIPV). The DNA sequences obtained from the strains were compared to other sequences found in international databases. Therefore, it was possible to construct a phylogenetic tree that highlights the clear separation in clades of the sequences and the molecular identification of our strains with the species of Hericium considered. The second step was to cultivate indoor and outdoor H. erinaceus in order to obtain as many sporophores as possible for further chemical analysis. All the procedures for H. erinaceus cultivation have been followed. Among the available recipes for indoor H. erinaceus cultivation, it was used a substrate formulation contained 70% oak sawdust, 20% rice bran, 10% wheat straw, 1% CaCO3 and 1% sucrose. The bioactive compounds present in the mycelia and in the sporophores of H. erinaceus were chemically analyzed in collaboration with the Centro Grandi Strumenti of the University of Pavia using high-performance liquid chromatography/electrospray ionization tandem mass spectrometry (HPLC/ESI-MS/MS). The materials to be analyzed were previously freeze-dried and then extracted with an alcoholic procedure. Preliminary chromatographic analysis revealed the presence of potentially bioactive and structurally different secondary metabolites such as polysaccharides, erinacins, ericenones, steroids and other terpenoids. Ericenones C and D (in sporophores) and erinacin A (in mycelium) have been identified by comparison with the respective standards. These molecules are known to have effects on the Central Nervous System (CNS) cells, which is the main objective of our studies. Thanks to the high sensitivity in the detection of bioactive compounds of H. erinaceus, it will be possible to use the To obtain lyophilized mycelium and the respective culture broth, 4 small pieces (about 5 mm2) of the respective H.e.1 or H.c.1 strains, taken from the margin of growing cultures (MEA), were inoculated into 1 liter of 2% ME (malt extract, Biokar Diagnostics). The static liquid cultures were kept at 24 °C in the dark chamber and fungi grew for one month. 10 replicates for each strain have been done. The method proposed as an analytical screening protocol to determine the optimal growth conditions of the fungus and to improve the production chain of H. erinaceus. These results encourage to carry out chemical analyzes also on H. alpestre and H. coralloides in order to evaluate the presence of bioactive compounds in these two species.

Keywords: Hericium species, Hercium erinaceus bioactive compounds, medicinal mushrooms, mushroom cultivation

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Authors: Silvia D. Vaca, Benjamin J. Kuo, Joao Ricardo Nickenig Vissoci, Catherine A. Staton, Linda W. Xu, Michael Muhumuza, Hussein Ssenyonjo, John Mukasa, Joel Kiryabwire, Henry E. Rice, Gerald A. Grant, Michael M. Haglund

Abstract:

Background: Patients with traumatic brain injury (TBI) can develop rapid neurological deterioration from swelling and intracranial hematomas, which can result in focal tissue ischemia, brain compression, and herniation. Moreover, delays in management increase the risk of secondary brain injury from hypoxemia and hypotension. Therefore, in TBI patients with subdural hematomas (SDHs) and epidural hematomas (EDHs), surgical intervention is both necessary and time sensitive. Significant delays are seen along the care continuum in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) largely due to limited healthcare capacity to address the disproportional rates of TBI in Sub Saharan Africa (SSA). While many LMICs have subsidized systems to offset surgical costs, the burden of securing funds by the patients for medications, supplies, and CT diagnostics poses a significant challenge to timely surgical interventions. In Kampala Uganda, the challenge of obtaining timely CT scans is twofold: logistical and financial barriers. These bottlenecks contribute significantly to the care continuum delays and are associated with poor TBI outcomes. Objective: The objectives of this study are to 1) describe the temporal delays through a modified three delays model that fits the context of neurosurgical interventions for TBI patients in Kampala and 2) investigate the association between delays and mortality. Methods: Prospective data were collected for 563 TBI patients presenting to a tertiary hospital in Kampala from 1 June – 30 November 2016. Four time intervals were constructed along five time points: injury, hospital arrival, neurosurgical evaluation, CT results, and definitive surgery. Time interval differences among mild, moderate and severe TBI and their association with mortality were analyzed. Results: The mortality rate of all TBI patients presenting to MNRH was 9.6%, which ranged from 4.7% for mild and moderate TBI patients receiving surgery to 81.8% for severe TBI patients who failed to receive surgery. The duration from injury to surgery varied considerably across TBI severity with the largest gap seen between mild TBI (174 hours) and severe TBI (69 hours) patients. Further analysis revealed care continuum differences for interval 3 (neurosurgical evaluation to CT result) and 4 (CT result to surgery) between severe TBI patients (7 hours for interval 3 and 24 hours for interval 4) and mild TBI patients (19 hours for interval 3, and 96 hours for interval 4). These post-arrival delays were associated with mortality for mild (p=0.05) and moderate TBI (p=0.03) patients. Conclusions: To our knowledge, this is the first analysis using a modified 'three delays' framework to analyze the care continuum of TBI patients in Uganda from injury to surgery. We found significant associations between delays and mortality for mild and moderate TBI patients. As it currently stands, poorer outcomes were observed for these mild and moderate TBI patients who were managed non-operatively or failed to receive surgery while surgical services were shunted to more severely ill patients. While well intentioned, high mortality rates were still observed for the severe TBI patients managed surgically. These results suggest the need for future research to optimize triage practices, understand delay contributors, and improve pre-hospital logistical referral systems.

Keywords: care continuum, global neurosurgery, Kampala Uganda, LMIC, Mulago, traumatic brain injury

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Authors: Chandranath Chatterjee, Amina Khatun, Bhabagrahi Sahoo

Abstract:

With the changing climate, precipitation events are intensified in the tropical river basins. Since these river basins are significantly influenced by the monsoonal rainfall pattern, critical impacts are observed on the agricultural practices in the downstream river reaches. This study analyses the crop damage and associated flood risk in terms of net benefit in the paddy-dominated tropical Indian delta of the Mahanadi River. The Mahanadi River basin lies in eastern part of the Indian sub-continent and is greatly affected by the southwest monsoon rainfall extending from the month of June to September. This river delta is highly flood-prone and has suffered from recurring high floods, especially after the 2000s. In this study, the lumped conceptual model, Nedbør Afstrømnings Model (NAM) from the suite of MIKE models, is used for rainfall-runoff modeling. The NAM model is laterally integrated with the MIKE11-Hydrodynamic (HD) model to route the runoffs up to the head of the delta region. To obtain the precipitation-derived future projected discharges at the head of the delta, nine Global Climate Models (GCMs), namely, BCC-CSM1.1(m), GFDL-CM3, GFDL-ESM2G, HadGEM2-AO, IPSL-CM5A-LR, IPSL-CM5A-MR, MIROC5, MIROC-ESM-CHEM and NorESM1-M, available in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project-Phase 5 (CMIP5) archive are considered. These nine GCMs are previously found to best-capture the Indian Summer Monsoon rainfall. Based on the performance of the nine GCMs in reproducing the historical discharge pattern, three GCMs (HadGEM2-AO, IPSL-CM5A-MR and MIROC-ESM-CHEM) are selected. A higher Taylor Skill Score is considered as the GCM selection criteria. Thereafter, the 10-year return period design flood is estimated using L-moments based flood frequency analysis for the historical and three future projected periods (2010-2039, 2040-2069 and 2070-2099) under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5. A non-dimensional hydrograph analysis is performed to obtain the hydrographs for the historical/projected 10-year return period design floods. These hydrographs are forced into the calibrated and validated coupled 1D-2D hydrodynamic model, MIKE FLOOD, to simulate the flood inundation in the delta region. Historical and projected flood risk is defined based on the information about the flood inundation simulated by the MIKE FLOOD model and the inundation depth-damage-duration relationship of a normal rice variety cultivated in the river delta. In general, flood risk is expected to increase in all the future projected time periods as compared to the historical episode. Further, in comparison to the 2010s (2010-2039), an increased flood risk in the 2040s (2040-2069) is shown by all the three selected GCMs. However, the flood risk then declines in the 2070s as we move towards the end of the century (2070-2099). The methodology adopted herein for flood risk assessment is one of its kind and may be implemented in any world-river basin. The results obtained from this study can help in future flood preparedness by implementing suitable flood adaptation strategies.

Keywords: flood frequency analysis, flood risk, global climate models (GCMs), paddy cultivation

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Authors: Clara Tramuta, Lucia Decastelli, Elisa Barcucci, Sandra Fragassi, Samantha Lupi, Enrico Arletti, Melissa Bizzarri, Daniela Manila Bianchi

Abstract:

Introdution: Food allergies occurs, in the Western World, 2% of adults and up to 8% of children. The protection of allergic consumers is guaranted, in Eurrope, by Regulation (EU) No 1169/2011 of the European Parliament which governs the consumer's right to information and identifies 14 food allergens to be mandatory indicated on the label. Among these, mustard is a popular spice added to enhance the flavour and taste of foods. It is frequently present as an ingredient in spice blends, marinades, salad dressings, sausages, and other products. Hypersensitivity to mustard is a public health problem since the ingestion of even low amounts can trigger severe allergic reactions. In order to protect the allergic consumer, high performance methods are required for the detection of allergenic ingredients. Food safety laboratories rely on validated methods that detect hidden allergens in food to ensure the safety and health of allergic consumers. Here we present the test results for the validation and accreditation of a Real time PCR assay (RT-PCR: SPECIALfinder MC Mustard, Generon), for the detection of mustard traces in food. Materials and Methods. The method was tested on five classes of food matrices: bakery and pastry products (chocolate cookies), meats (ragù), ready-to-eat (mixed salad), dairy products (yogurt), grains, and milling products (rice and barley flour). Blank samples were spiked starting with the mustard samples (Sinapis Alba), lyophilized and stored at -18 °C, at a concentration of 1000 ppm. Serial dilutions were then prepared to a final concentration of 0.5 ppm, using the DNA extracted by ION Force FAST (Generon) from the blank samples. The Real Time PCR reaction was performed by RT-PCR SPECIALfinder MC Mustard (Generon), using CFX96 System (BioRad). Results. Real Time PCR showed a limit of detection (LOD) of 0.5 ppm in grains and milling products, ready-to-eat, meats, bakery, pastry products, and dairy products (range Ct 25-34). To determine the exclusivity parameter of the method, the ragù matrix was contaminated with Prunus dulcis (almonds), peanut (Arachis hypogaea), Glycine max (soy), Apium graveolens (celery), Allium cepa (onion), Pisum sativum (peas), Daucus carota (carrots), and Theobroma cacao (cocoa) and no cross-reactions were observed. Discussion. In terms of sensitivity, the Real Time PCR confirmed, even in complex matrix, a LOD of 0.5 ppm in five classes of food matrices tested; these values are compatible with the current regulatory situation that does not consider, at international level, to establish a quantitative criterion for the allergen considered in this study. The Real Time PCR SPECIALfinder kit for the detection of mustard proved to be easy to use and particularly appreciated for the rapid response times considering that the amplification and detection phase has a duration of less than 50 minutes. Method accuracy was rated satisfactory for sensitivity (100%) and specificity (100%) and was fully validated and accreditated. It was found adequate for the needs of the laboratory as it met the purpose for which it was applied. This study was funded in part within a project of the Italian Ministry of Health (IZS PLV 02/19 RC).

Keywords: allergens, food, mustard, real time PCR

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Authors: Yetti Marlida, Syukri Arif, Nadirman Haska

Abstract:

Recently, alcohol fuels have been produced on industrial scales by fermentation of sugars derived from wheat, corn, sugar beets, sugar cane etc. The enzymatic hydrolysis of cellulosic materials to produce fermentable sugars has an enormous potential in meeting global bioenergy demand through the biorefinery concept, since agri-food processes generate millions of tones of waste each year (Xeros and Christakopoulos 2009) such as sugar cane baggase , wheat straw, rice straw, corn cob, and oil palm trunk. In fact oil palm trunk is one of the most abundant lignocellulosic wastes by-products worldwide especially come from Malaysia, Indonesia and Nigeria and provides an alternative substrate to produce useful chemicals such as bioethanol. Usually, from the ages 3 years to 25 years, is the economical life of oil palm and after that, it is cut for replantation. The size of trunk usually is 15-18 meters in length and 46-60 centimeters in diameter. The trunk after cutting is agricultural waste causing problem in elimination but due to the trunk contains about 42% cellulose, 34.4%hemicellulose, 17.1% lignin and 7.3% other compounds,these agricultural wastes could make value added products (Pumiput, 2006).This research was production of bioethanol from oil palm trunk via saccharafication by cocktail carbohydrases enzymes. Enzymatic saccharification of acid treated oil palm trunk was carried out in reaction mixture containing 40 g treated oil palm trunk in 200 ml 0.1 M citrate buffer pH 4.8 with 500 unit/kg amylase for treatment A: Treatment B: Treatment A + 500 unit/kg cellulose; C: treatment B + 500 unit/kgg xylanase: D: treatment D + 500 unit/kg ligninase and E: OPT without treated + 500 unit/kg amylase + 500 unit/kg cellulose + 500 unit/kg xylanase + 500 unit/kg ligninase. The reaction mixture was incubated on a water bath rotary shaker adjusted to 600C and 75 rpm. The samples were withdraw at intervals 12 and 24, 36, 48,60, and 72 hr. For bioethanol production in biofermentor of 5L the hydrolysis product were inoculated a loop of Saccharomyces cerevisiae and then incubated at 34 0C under static conditions. Samples are withdraw after 12, 24, 36, 48 and 72 hr for bioethanol and residual glucose. The results of the enzymatic hidrolysis (Figure1) showed that the treatment B (OPT hydrolyzed with amylase and cellulase) have optimum condition for glucose production, where was both of enzymes can be degraded OPT perfectly. The same results also reported by Primarini et al., (2012) reported the optimum conditions the hydrolysis of OPT was at concentration of 25% (w /v) with 0.3% (w/v) amylase, 0.6% (w /v) glucoamylase and 4% (w/v) cellulase. In the Figure 2 showed that optimum bioethanol produced at 48 hr after incubation,if time increased the biothanol decreased. According Roukas (1996), a decrease in the concentration of ethanol occur at excess glucose as substrate and product inhibition effects. Substrate concentration is too high reduces the amount of dissolved oxygen, although in very small amounts, oxygen is still needed in the fermentation by Saccaromyces cerevisiae to keep life in high cell concentrations (Nowak 2000, Tao et al. 2005). The results of the research can be conluded that the optimum enzymatic hydrolysis occured when the OPT added with amylase and cellulase and optimum bioethanol produced at 48 hr incubation using Saccharomyses cerevicea whereas 18.08 % bioethanol produced from glucose conversion. This work was funded by Directorate General of Higher Education (DGHE), Ministry of Education and Culture, contract no.245/SP2H/DIT.LimtabMas/II/2013

Keywords: oil palm trunk, enzymatic hydrolysis, saccharification

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Authors: Alejandra Castillo-Arias, Carlos A. Fuenmayor, Carlos M. Zuluaga-Domínguez

Abstract:

The connection between health and nutrition has driven the food industry to explore healthier and more sustainable alternatives. Key strategies to enhance nutritional quality and extend shelf life include reducing saturated fats and incorporating natural ingredients. One area of focus is the use of modified starch in baked goods, which has attracted significant interest in food science and industry due to its functional benefits. Modified starches are commonly used for their gelling, thickening, and water-retention properties. Derived from sources like waxy corn, potatoes, tapioca, or rice, these polysaccharides improve thermal stability and resistance to dough. The use of modified starch enhances the texture and structure of baked goods, which is crucial for consumer acceptance. In this study, it was evaluated the effects of modified starch inclusion on dough used for puff pastry elaboration, measured with Mixolab analysis. This technique assesses flour quality by examining its behavior under varying conditions, providing a comprehensive profile of its baking properties. The analysis included measurements of water absorption capacity, dough development time, dough stability, softening, final consistency, and starch gelatinization. Each of these parameters offers insights into how the flour will perform during baking and the quality of the final product. The performance of wheat flour with varying levels of modified starch inclusion (10%, 20%, 30%, and 40%) was evaluated through Mixolab analysis, with a control sample consisting of 100% wheat flour. Water absorption, gluten content, and retrogradation indices were analyzed to understand how modified starch affects dough properties. The results showed that the inclusion of modified starch increased the absorption index, especially at levels above 30%, indicating a dough with better handling qualities and potentially improved texture in the final baked product. However, the reduction in wheat flour resulted in a lower kneading index, affecting dough strength. Conversely, incorporating more than 20% modified starch reduced the retrogradation index, indicating improved stability and resistance to crystallization after cooling. Additionally, the modified starch improved the gluten index, contributing to better dough elasticity and stability, providing good structural support and resistance to deformation during mixing and baking. As expected, the control sample exhibited a higher amylase index, due to the presence of enzymes in wheat flour. However, this is of low concern in puff pastry dough, as amylase activity is more relevant in fermented doughs, which is not the case here. Overall, the use of modified starch in puff pastry enhanced product quality by improving texture, structure, and shelf life, particularly when used at levels between 30% and 40%. This research underscores the potential of modified starches to address health concerns associated with traditional starches and to contribute to the development of higher-quality, consumer-friendly baked products. Furthermore, the findings suggest that modified starches could play a pivotal role in future innovations within the baking industry, particularly in products aiming to balance healthfulness with sensory appeal. By incorporating modified starch into their formulations, bakeries can meet the growing demand for healthier, more sustainable products while maintaining the indulgent qualities that consumers expect from baked goods.

Keywords: baking quality, dough properties, modified starch, puff pastry

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Authors: Benjamin J. Kuo, Silvia D. Vaca, Joao Ricardo Nickenig Vissoci, Catherine A. Staton, Linda Xu, Michael Muhumuza, Hussein Ssenyonjo, John Mukasa, Joel Kiryabwire, Lydia Nanjula, Christine Muhumuza, Henry E. Rice, Gerald A. Grant, Michael M. Haglund

Abstract:

Background: Traumatic Brain Injury (TBI) is disproportionally concentrated in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), with the odds of dying from TBI in Uganda more than 4 times higher than in high income countries (HICs). The disparities in the injury incidence and outcome between LMICs and resource-rich settings have led to increased health outcomes research for TBIs and their associated risk factors in LMICs. While there have been increasing TBI studies in LMICs over the last decade, there is still a need for more robust prospective registries. In Uganda, a trauma registry implemented in 2004 at the Mulago National Referral Hospital (MNRH) showed that RTI is the major contributor (60%) of overall mortality in the casualty department. While the prior registry provides information on injury incidence and burden, it’s limited in scope and doesn’t follow patients longitudinally throughout their hospital stay nor does it focus specifically on TBIs. And although these retrospective analyses are helpful for benchmarking TBI outcomes, they make it hard to identify specific quality improvement initiatives. The relationship among epidemiology, patient risk factors, clinical care, and TBI outcomes are still relatively unknown at MNRH. Objective: The objectives of this study are to describe the processes of care and determine risk factors predictive of poor outcomes for TBI patients presenting to a single tertiary hospital in Uganda. Methods: Prospective data were collected for 563 TBI patients presenting to a tertiary hospital in Kampala from 1 June – 30 November 2016. Research Electronic Data Capture (REDCap) was used to systematically collect variables spanning 8 categories. Univariate and multivariate analysis were conducted to determine significant predictors of mortality. Results: 563 TBI patients were enrolled from 1 June – 30 November 2016. 102 patients (18%) received surgery, 29 patients (5.1%) intended for surgery failed to receive it, and 251 patients (45%) received non-operative management. Overall mortality was 9.6%, which ranged from 4.7% for mild and moderate TBI to 55% for severe TBI patients with GCS 3-5. Within each TBI severity category, mortality differed by management pathway. Variables predictive of mortality were TBI severity, more than one intracranial bleed, failure to receive surgery, high dependency unit admission, ventilator support outside of surgery, and hospital arrival delayed by more than 4 hours. Conclusions: The overall mortality rate of 9.6% in Uganda for TBI is high, and likely underestimates the true TBI mortality. Furthermore, the wide-ranging mortality (3-82%), high ICU fatality, and negative impact of care delays suggest shortcomings with the current triaging practices. Lack of surgical intervention when needed was highly predictive of mortality in TBI patients. Further research into the determinants of surgical interventions, quality of step-up care, and prolonged care delays are needed to better understand the complex interplay of variables that affect patient outcome. These insights guide the development of future interventions and resource allocation to improve patient outcomes.

Keywords: care continuum, global neurosurgery, Kampala Uganda, LMIC, Mulago, prospective registry, traumatic brain injury

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Authors: Chusit Apirumanekul, Chayanis Krittasudthacheewa, Ratchapat Ratanavaraha, Yanyong Inmuong

Abstract:

Rapid economic development in the Lower Mekong region is leading to changes in water quantity and quality. Changes in land- and forest-use, infrastructure development, increasing urbanization, migration patterns and climate risks are increasing demands for water, within various sectors, placing pressure on scarce water resources. Appropriate policies, strategies, and planning are urgently needed for improved water resource management. Over the last decade, Thailand has experienced more frequent and intense drought situations, affecting the level of water storage in reservoirs along with insufficient water allocation for agriculture during the dry season. The Huay Saibat River Basin, one of the well-known water-scarce areas in the northeastern region of Thailand, is experiencing ongoing water scarcity that affects both farming livelihoods and household consumption. Drought management in Thailand mainly focuses on emergency responses, rather than advance preparation and mitigation for long-term solutions. Despite many efforts from local authorities to mitigate the drought situation, there is yet no long-term comprehensive water management strategy, that integrates climate risks alongside other uncertainties. This paper assesses the application in the Huay Saibat River Basin, of the Robust Decision Support framework, to explore the feasibility of multiple drought management policies; including a shift in cropping season, in crop changes, in infrastructural operations and in the use of groundwater, under a wide range of uncertainties, including climate and land-use change. A series of consultative meetings were organized with relevant agencies and experts at the local level, to understand and explore plausible water resources strategies and identify thresholds to evaluate the performance of those strategies. Three different climate conditions were identified (dry, normal and wet). Other non-climatic factors influencing water allocation were further identified, including changes from sugarcane to rubber, delaying rice planting, increasing natural retention storage and using groundwater to supply demands for household consumption and small-scale gardening. Water allocation and water use in various sectors, such as in agriculture, domestic, industry and the environment, were estimated by utilising the Water Evaluation And Planning (WEAP) system, under various scenarios developed from the combination of climatic and non-climatic factors mentioned earlier. Water coverage (i.e. percentage of water demand being successfully supplied) was defined as a threshold for water resource strategy assessment. Thresholds for different sectors (agriculture, domestic, industry, and environment) were specified during multi-stakeholder engagements. Plausible water strategies (e.g. increasing natural retention storage, change of crop type and use of groundwater as an alternative source) were evaluated based on specified thresholds in 4 sectors (agriculture, domestic, industry, and environment) under 3 climate conditions. 'Business as usual' was evaluated for comparison. The strategies considered robust, emerge when performance is assessed as successful, under a wide range of uncertainties across the river basin. Without adopting any strategy, the water scarcity situation is likely to escalate in the future. Among the strategies identified, the use of groundwater as an alternative source was considered a potential option in combating water scarcity for the basin. Further studies are needed to explore the feasibility for groundwater use as a potential sustainable source.

Keywords: climate change, robust decision support, scenarios, water resources management

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