Search results for: circumstances
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 613

Search results for: circumstances

13 Extension of Moral Agency to Artificial Agents

Authors: Sofia Quaglia, Carmine Di Martino, Brendan Tierney

Abstract:

Artificial Intelligence (A.I.) constitutes various aspects of modern life, from the Machine Learning algorithms predicting the stocks on Wall streets to the killing of belligerents and innocents alike on the battlefield. Moreover, the end goal is to create autonomous A.I.; this means that the presence of humans in the decision-making process will be absent. The question comes naturally: when an A.I. does something wrong when its behavior is harmful to the community and its actions go against the law, which is to be held responsible? This research’s subject matter in A.I. and Robot Ethics focuses mainly on Robot Rights and its ultimate objective is to answer the questions: (i) What is the function of rights? (ii) Who is a right holder, what is personhood and the requirements needed to be a moral agent (therefore, accountable for responsibility)? (iii) Can an A.I. be a moral agent? (ontological requirements) and finally (iv) if it ought to be one (ethical implications). With the direction to answer this question, this research project was done via a collaboration between the School of Computer Science in the Technical University of Dublin that oversaw the technical aspects of this work, as well as the Department of Philosophy in the University of Milan, who supervised the philosophical framework and argumentation of the project. Firstly, it was found that all rights are positive and based on consensus; they change with time based on circumstances. Their function is to protect the social fabric and avoid dangerous situations. The same goes for the requirements considered necessary to be a moral agent: those are not absolute; in fact, they are constantly redesigned. Hence, the next logical step was to identify what requirements are regarded as fundamental in real-world judicial systems, comparing them to that of ones used in philosophy. Autonomy, free will, intentionality, consciousness and responsibility were identified as the requirements to be considered a moral agent. The work went on to build a symmetrical system between personhood and A.I. to enable the emergence of the ontological differences between the two. Each requirement is introduced, explained in the most relevant theories of contemporary philosophy, and observed in its manifestation in A.I. Finally, after completing the philosophical and technical analysis, conclusions were drawn. As underlined in the research questions, there are two issues regarding the assignment of moral agency to artificial agent: the first being that all the ontological requirements must be present and secondly being present or not, whether an A.I. ought to be considered as an artificial moral agent. From an ontological point of view, it is very hard to prove that an A.I. could be autonomous, free, intentional, conscious, and responsible. The philosophical accounts are often very theoretical and inconclusive, making it difficult to fully detect these requirements on an experimental level of demonstration. However, from an ethical point of view it makes sense to consider some A.I. as artificial moral agents, hence responsible for their own actions. When considering artificial agents as responsible, there can be applied already existing norms in our judicial system such as removing them from society, and re-educating them, in order to re-introduced them to society. This is in line with how the highest profile correctional facilities ought to work. Noticeably, this is a provisional conclusion and research must continue further. Nevertheless, the strength of the presented argument lies in its immediate applicability to real world scenarios. To refer to the aforementioned incidents, involving the murderer of innocents, when this thesis is applied it is possible to hold an A.I. accountable and responsible for its actions. This infers removing it from society by virtue of its un-usability, re-programming it and, only when properly functioning, re-introducing it successfully

Keywords: artificial agency, correctional system, ethics, natural agency, responsibility

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12 Facilitating Primary Care Practitioners to Improve Outcomes for People With Oropharyngeal Dysphagia Living in the Community: An Ongoing Realist Review

Authors: Caroline Smith, Professor Debi Bhattacharya, Sion Scott

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Introduction: Oropharyngeal Dysphagia (OD) effects around 15% of older people, however it is often unrecognised and under diagnosed until they are hospitalised. There is a need for primary care healthcare practitioners (HCPs) to assume a proactive role in identifying and managing OD to prevent adverse outcomes such as aspiration pneumonia. Understanding the determinants of primary care HCPs undertaking this new behaviour provides the intervention targets for addressing. This realist review, underpinned by the Theoretical Domains Framework (TDF), aims to synthesise relevant literature and develop programme theories to understand what interventions work, how they work and under what circumstances to facilitate HCPs to prevent harm from OD. Combining realist methodology with behavioural science will permit conceptualisation of intervention components as theoretical behavioural constructs, thus informing the design of a future behaviour change intervention. Furthermore, through the TDF’s linkage to a taxonomy of behaviour change techniques, we will identify corresponding behaviour change techniques to include in this intervention. Methods & analysis: We are following the five steps for undertaking a realist review: 1) clarify the scope 2) Literature search 3) appraise and extract data 4) evidence synthesis 5) evaluation. We have searched Medline, Google scholar, PubMed, EMBASE, CINAHL, AMED, Scopus and PsycINFO databases. We are obtaining additional evidence through grey literature, snowball sampling, lateral searching and consulting the stakeholder group. Literature is being screened, evaluated and synthesised in Excel and Nvivo. We will appraise evidence in relation to its relevance and rigour. Data will be extracted and synthesised according to its relation to Initial programme theories (IPTs). IPTs were constructed after the preliminary literature search, informed by the TDF and with input from a stakeholder group of patient and public involvement advisors, general practitioners, speech and language therapists, geriatricians and pharmacists. We will follow the Realist and Meta-narrative Evidence Syntheses: Evolving Standards (RAMESES) quality and publication standards to report study results. Results: In this ongoing review our search has identified 1417 manuscripts with approximately 20% progressing to full text screening. We inductively generated 10 IPTs that hypothesise practitioners require: the knowledge to spot the signs and symptoms of OD; the skills to provide initial advice and support; and access to resources in their working environment to support them conducting these new behaviours. We mapped the 10 IPTs to 8 TDF domains and then generated a further 12 IPTs deductively using domain definitions to fulfil the remaining 6 TDF domains. Deductively generated IPTs broadened our thinking to consider domains such as ‘Emotion,’ ‘Optimism’ and ‘Social Influence’, e.g. If practitioners perceive that patients, carers and relatives expect initial advice and support, then they will be more likely to provide this, because they will feel obligated to do so. After prioritisation with stakeholders using a modified nominal group technique approach, a maximum of 10 IPTs will progress to test against the literature.

Keywords: behaviour change, deglutition disorders, primary healthcare, realist review

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11 Biophilic Design Strategies: Four Case-Studies from Northern Europe

Authors: Carmen García Sánchez

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The UN's 17 Sustainable Development Goals – specifically the nº 3 and nº 11- urgently call for new architectural design solutions at different design scales to increase human contact with nature in the health and wellbeing promotion of primarily urban communities. The discipline of Interior Design offers an important alternative to large-scale nature-inclusive actions which are not always possible due to space limitations. These circumstances provide an immense opportunity to integrate biophilic design, a complex emerging and under-developed approach that pursues sustainable design strategies for increasing the human-nature connection through the experience of the built environment. Biophilic design explores the diverse ways humans are inherently inclined to affiliate with nature, attach meaning to and derive benefit from the natural world. It represents a biological understanding of architecture which categorization is still in progress. The internationally renowned Danish domestic architecture built in the 1950´s and early 1960´s - a golden age of Danish modern architecture - left a leading legacy that has greatly influenced the domestic sphere and has further led the world in terms of good design and welfare. This study examines how four existing post-war domestic buildings establish a dialogue with nature and her variations over time. The case-studies unveil both memorable and unique biophilic resources through sophisticated and original design expressions, where transformative processes connect the users to the natural setting and reflect fundamental ways in which they attach meaning to the place. In addition, fascinating analogies in terms of this nature interaction with particular traditional Japanese architecture inform the research. They embody prevailing lessons for our time today. The research methodology is based on a thorough literature review combined with a phenomenological analysis into how these case-studies contribute to the connection between humans and nature, after conducting fieldwork throughout varying seasons to document understanding in nature transformations multi-sensory perception (via sight, touch, sound, smell, time and movement) as a core research strategy. The cases´ most outstanding features have been studied attending the following key parameters: 1. Space: 1.1. Relationships (itineraries); 1.2. Measures/scale; 2. Context: Context: Landscape reading in different weather/seasonal conditions; 3. Tectonic: 3.1. Constructive joints, elements assembly; 3.2. Structural order; 4. Materiality: 4.1. Finishes, 4.2. Colors; 4.3. Tactile qualities; 5. Daylight interplay. Departing from an artistic-scientific exploration this groundbreaking study provides sustainable practical design strategies, perspectives, and inspiration to boost humans´ contact with nature through the experience of the interior built environment. Some strategies are associated with access to outdoor space or require ample space, while others can thrive in a dense urban context without direct access to the natural environment. The objective is not only to produce knowledge, but to phase in biophilic design in the built environment, expanding its theory and practice into a new dimension. Its long-term vision is to efficiently enhance the health and well-being of urban communities through daily interaction with Nature.

Keywords: sustainability, biophilic design, architectural design, interior design, nature, Danish architecture, Japanese architecture

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10 Pulmonary Disease Identification Using Machine Learning and Deep Learning Techniques

Authors: Chandu Rathnayake, Isuri Anuradha

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Early detection and accurate diagnosis of lung diseases play a crucial role in improving patient prognosis. However, conventional diagnostic methods heavily rely on subjective symptom assessments and medical imaging, often causing delays in diagnosis and treatment. To overcome this challenge, we propose a novel lung disease prediction system that integrates patient symptoms and X-ray images to provide a comprehensive and reliable diagnosis.In this project, develop a mobile application specifically designed for detecting lung diseases. Our application leverages both patient symptoms and X-ray images to facilitate diagnosis. By combining these two sources of information, our application delivers a more accurate and comprehensive assessment of the patient's condition, minimizing the risk of misdiagnosis. Our primary aim is to create a user-friendly and accessible tool, particularly important given the current circumstances where many patients face limitations in visiting healthcare facilities. To achieve this, we employ several state-of-the-art algorithms. Firstly, the Decision Tree algorithm is utilized for efficient symptom-based classification. It analyzes patient symptoms and creates a tree-like model to predict the presence of specific lung diseases. Secondly, we employ the Random Forest algorithm, which enhances predictive power by aggregating multiple decision trees. This ensemble technique improves the accuracy and robustness of the diagnosis. Furthermore, we incorporate a deep learning model using Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) with the RestNet50 pre-trained model. CNNs are well-suited for image analysis and feature extraction. By training CNN on a large dataset of X-ray images, it learns to identify patterns and features indicative of lung diseases. The RestNet50 architecture, known for its excellent performance in image recognition tasks, enhances the efficiency and accuracy of our deep learning model. By combining the outputs of the decision tree-based algorithms and the deep learning model, our mobile application generates a comprehensive lung disease prediction. The application provides users with an intuitive interface to input their symptoms and upload X-ray images for analysis. The prediction generated by the system offers valuable insights into the likelihood of various lung diseases, enabling individuals to take appropriate actions and seek timely medical attention. Our proposed mobile application has significant potential to address the rising prevalence of lung diseases, particularly among young individuals with smoking addictions. By providing a quick and user-friendly approach to assessing lung health, our application empowers individuals to monitor their well-being conveniently. This solution also offers immense value in the context of limited access to healthcare facilities, enabling timely detection and intervention. In conclusion, our research presents a comprehensive lung disease prediction system that combines patient symptoms and X-ray images using advanced algorithms. By developing a mobile application, we provide an accessible tool for individuals to assess their lung health conveniently. This solution has the potential to make a significant impact on the early detection and management of lung diseases, benefiting both patients and healthcare providers.

Keywords: CNN, random forest, decision tree, machine learning, deep learning

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9 Assessing Organizational Resilience Capacity to Flooding: Index Development and Application to Greek Small & Medium-Sized Enterprises

Authors: Antonis Skouloudis, Konstantinos Evangelinos, Walter Leal-Filho, Panagiotis Vouros, Ioannis Nikolaou

Abstract:

Organizational resilience capacity to extreme weather events (EWEs) has sparked a growth in scholarly attention over the past decade as an essential aspect in business continuity management, with supporting evidence for this claim to suggest that it retains a key role in successful responses to adverse situations, crises and shocks. Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) are more vulnerable to face floods compared to their larger counterparts, so they are disproportionately affected by such extreme weather events. The limited resources at their disposal, the lack of time and skills all conduce to inadequate preparedness to challenges posed by floods. SMEs tend to plan in the short-term, reacting to circumstances as they arise and focussing on their very survival. Likewise, they share less formalised structures and codified policies while they are most usually owner-managed, resulting in a command-and-control management culture. Such characteristics result in them having limited opportunities to recover from flooding and quickly turnaround their operation from a loss making to a profit making one. Scholars frame the capacity of business entities to be resilient upon an EWE disturbance (such as flash floods) as the rate of recovery and restoration of organizational performance to pre-disturbance conditions, the amount of disturbance (i.e. threshold level) a business can absorb before losing structural and/or functional components that will alter or cease operation, as well as the extent to which the organization maintains its function (i.e. impact resistance) before performance levels are driven to zero. Nevertheless, while it seems to be accepted as an essential trait of firms effectively transcending uncertain conditions, research deconstructing the enabling conditions and/or inhibitory factors of SMEs resilience capacity to natural hazards is still sparse, fragmentary and mostly fuelled by anecdotal evidence or normative assumptions. Focusing on the individual level of analysis, i.e. the individual enterprise and its endeavours to succeed, the emergent picture from this relatively new research strand delineates the specification of variables, conceptual relationships or dynamic boundaries of resilience capacity components in an attempt to provide prescriptions for policy-making as well as business management. This study will present the development of a flood resilience capacity index (FRCI) and its application to Greek SMEs. The proposed composite indicator pertains to cognitive, behavioral/managerial and contextual factors that influence an enterprise’s ability to shape effective responses to meet flood challenges. Through the proposed indicator-based approach, an analytical framework is set forth that will help standardize such assessments with the overarching aim of reducing the vulnerability of SMEs to flooding. This will be achieved by identifying major internal and external attributes explaining resilience capacity which is particularly important given the limited resources these enterprises have and that they tend to be primary sources of vulnerabilities in supply chain networks, generating Single Points of Failure (SPOF).

Keywords: Floods, Small & Medium-Sized enterprises, organizational resilience capacity, index development

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8 Supports for Student Learning Program: Exploring the Educational Terrain of Newcomer and Refugee Students in Canada

Authors: Edward Shizha, Edward Makwarimba

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This literature review explores current research on the educational strengths and barriers of newcomer and refugee youth in Canada. Canada’s shift in immigration policy in the past three decades, from Europe to Asian and African countries as source continents of recent immigrants to Canada, has tremendously increased the ethnic, linguistic, cultural and religious diversity of the population, including that of students in its education system. Over 18% of the country’s population was born in another country, of which 70% are visible minorities. There has been an increase in admitted immigrants and refugees, with a total of 226,203 between July 2020 and June 2021. Newcomer parents and their children in all major destination countries, including Canada, face tremendous challenges, including racism and discrimination, lack of English language skills, poverty, income inequality, unemployment, and underemployment. They face additional challenges, including discrimination against those who cannot speak the official languages, English or French. The severity of the challenges depends on several intersectional factors, including immigrant status (asylum seeker, refugee, or immigrant), age, gender, level of education and others. Through the lens of intersectionality as an explanatory perspective, this literature review examines the educational attainment and outcomes of newcomer and refugee youth in Canada in order to understand their educational needs, educational barriers and strengths. Newcomer youths’ experiences are shaped by numerous intersectional and interconnected sociocultural, sociopolitical, and socioeconomic factors—including gender, migration status, racialized status, ethnicity, socioeconomic class, sexual minority status, age, race—that produce and perpetuate their disadvantage. According to research, immigrants and refugees from visible minority ethnic backgrounds experience exclusions more than newcomers from other backgrounds and groups from the mainstream population. For many immigrant parents, migration provides financial and educational opportunities for their children. Yet, when attending school, newcomer and refugee youth face unique challenges related to racism and discrimination, negative attitudes and stereotypes from teachers and other school authorities, language learning and proficiency, differing levels of acculturation, and different cultural views of the role of parents in relation to teachers and school, and unfamiliarity with the social or school context in Canada. Recognizing discrepancies in educational attainment of newcomer and refugee youth based on their race and immigrant status, the paper develops insights into existing research and data gaps related to educational strengths and challenges for visible minority newcomer youth in Canada. The paper concludes that the educational successes or failures of the newcomer and refugee youth and their settlement and integration into the school system in Canada may depend on where their families settle, the attitudes of the host community and the school officials (teachers, guidance counsellors and school administrators) after-school support programs and their own set of coping mechanisms. Conceivably a unique approach to after-school programming should provide learning supports and opportunities that consider newcomer and refugee youth’s needs, experiences, backgrounds and circumstances. This support is likely to translate into significant academic and psychological well-being of newcomer students.

Keywords: deficit discourse, discrimination, educational outcomes, newcomer and refugee youth, racism, strength-based approach, whiteness

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7 Braille Lab: A New Design Approach for Social Entrepreneurship and Innovation in Assistive Tools for the Visually Impaired

Authors: Claudio Loconsole, Daniele Leonardis, Antonio Brunetti, Gianpaolo Francesco Trotta, Nicholas Caporusso, Vitoantonio Bevilacqua

Abstract:

Unfortunately, many people still do not have access to communication, with specific regard to reading and writing. Among them, people who are blind or visually impaired, have several difficulties in getting access to the world, compared to the sighted. Indeed, despite technology advancement and cost reduction, nowadays assistive devices are still expensive such as Braille-based input/output systems which enable reading and writing texts (e.g., personal notes, documents). As a consequence, assistive technology affordability is fundamental in supporting the visually impaired in communication, learning, and social inclusion. This, in turn, has serious consequences in terms of equal access to opportunities, freedom of expression, and actual and independent participation to a society designed for the sighted. Moreover, the visually impaired experience difficulties in recognizing objects and interacting with devices in any activities of daily living. It is not a case that Braille indications are commonly reported only on medicine boxes and elevator keypads. Several software applications for the automatic translation of written text into speech (e.g., Text-To-Speech - TTS) enable reading pieces of documents. However, apart from simple tasks, in many circumstances TTS software is not suitable for understanding very complicated pieces of text requiring to dwell more on specific portions (e.g., mathematical formulas or Greek text). In addition, the experience of reading\writing text is completely different both in terms of engagement, and from an educational perspective. Statistics on the employment rate of blind people show that learning to read and write provides the visually impaired with up to 80% more opportunities of finding a job. Especially in higher educational levels, where the ability to digest very complex text is key, accessibility and availability of Braille plays a fundamental role in reducing drop-out rate of the visually impaired, thus affecting the effectiveness of the constitutional right to get access to education. In this context, the Braille Lab project aims at overcoming these social needs by including affordability in designing and developing assistive tools for visually impaired people. In detail, our awarded project focuses on a technology innovation of the operation principle of existing assistive tools for the visually impaired leaving the Human-Machine Interface unchanged. This can result in a significant reduction of the production costs and consequently of tool selling prices, thus representing an important opportunity for social entrepreneurship. The first two assistive tools designed within the Braille Lab project following the proposed approach aims to provide the possibility to personally print documents and handouts and to read texts written in Braille using refreshable Braille display, respectively. The former, named ‘Braille Cartridge’, represents an alternative solution for printing in Braille and consists in the realization of an electronic-controlled dispenser printing (cartridge) which can be integrated within traditional ink-jet printers, in order to leverage the efficiency and cost of the device mechanical structure which are already being used. The latter, named ‘Braille Cursor’, is an innovative Braille display featuring a substantial technology innovation by means of a unique cursor virtualizing Braille cells, thus limiting the number of active pins needed for Braille characters.

Keywords: Human rights, social challenges and technology innovations, visually impaired, affordability, assistive tools

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6 Thematic Analysis of Ramayana Narrative Scroll Paintings: A Need for Knowledge Preservation

Authors: Shatarupa Thakurta Roy

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Along the limelight of mainstream academic practices in Indian art, exist a significant lot of habitual art practices that are mutually susceptible in their contemporary forms. Narrative folk paintings of regional India has successfully dispersed to its audience social messages through pulsating pictures and orations. The paper consists of images from narrative scroll paintings on ‘Ramayana’ theme from various neighboring states as well as districts in India, describing their subtle differences in style of execution, method, and use of material. Despite sharing commonness in the choice of subject matter, habitual and ceremonial Indian folk art in its formative phase thrived within isolated locations to yield in remarkable variety in the art styles. The differences in style took place district wise, cast wise and even gender wise. An open flow is only evident in the contemporary expressions as a result of substantial changes in social structures, mode of communicative devices, cross-cultural exposures and multimedia interactivities. To decipher the complex nature of popular cultural taste of contemporary India it is important to categorically identify its root in vernacular symbolism. The realization of modernity through European primitivism was rather elevated as a perplexed identity in Indian cultural margin in the light of nationalist and postcolonial ideology. To trace the guiding factor that has still managed to obtain ‘Indianness’ in today’s Indian art, researchers need evidences from the past that are yet to be listed in most instances. They are commonly created on ephemeral foundations. The artworks are also found in endangered state and hence, not counted much friendly for frequent handling. The museums are in dearth of proper technological guidelines to preserve them. Even though restoration activities are emerging in the country, the existing withered and damaged artworks are in threat to perish. An immediacy of digital achieving is therefore envisioned as an alternative to save this cultural legacy. The method of this study is, two folded. It primarily justifies the richness of the evidences by conducting categorical aesthetic analysis. The study is supported by comments on the stylistic variants, thematic aspects, and iconographic identities alongside its anthropological and anthropomorphic significance. Further, it explores the possible ways of cultural preservation to ensure cultural sustainability that includes technological intervention in the form of digital transformation as an altered paradigm for better accessibility to the available recourses. The study duly emphasizes on visual description in order to culturally interpret and judge the rare visual evidences following Feldman’s four-stepped method of formal analysis combined with thematic explanation. A habitual design that emerges and thrives within complex social circumstances may experience change placing its principle philosophy at risk by shuffling and altering with time. A tradition that respires in the modern setup struggles to maintain timeless values that operate its creative flow. Thus, the paper hypothesizes the survival and further growth of this practice within the dynamics of time and concludes in realization of the urgency to transform the implicitness of its knowledge into explicit records.

Keywords: aesthetic, identity, implicitness, paradigm

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5 Wellbeing Effects from Family Literacy Education: An Ecological Study

Authors: Jane Furness, Neville Robertson, Judy Hunter, Darrin Hodgetts, Linda Nikora

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Background and significance: This paper describes the first use of community psychology theories to investigate family-focused literacy education programmes, enabling a wide range of wellbeing effects of such programmes to be identified for the first time. Evaluations of family literacy programmes usually focus on the economic advantage of gains in literacy skills. By identifying other effects on aspects of participants’ lives that are important to them, and how they occur, understanding of how such programmes contribute to wellbeing and social justice is augmented. Drawn from community psychology, an ecological systems-based, culturally adaptive framework for personal, relational and collective wellbeing illuminated outcomes of family literacy programmes that enhanced wellbeing and quality of life for adult participants, their families and their communities. All programmes, irrespective of their institutional location, could be similarly scrutinized. Methodology: The study traced the experiences of nineteen adult participants in four family-focused literacy programmes located in geographically and culturally different communities throughout New Zealand. A critical social constructionist paradigm framed this interpretive study. Participants were mainly Māori, Pacific islands, or European New Zealanders. Seventy-nine repeated conversational interviews were conducted over 18 months with the adult participants, programme staff and people who knew the participants well. Twelve participant observations of programme sessions were conducted, and programme documentation was reviewed. Latent theoretical thematic analysis of data drew on broad perspectives of literacy and ecological systems theory, network theory and holistic, integrative theories of wellbeing. Steps taken to co-construct meaning with participants included the repeated conversational interviews and participant checking of interview transcripts and section drafts. The researcher (this paper’s first author) followed methodological guidelines developed by indigenous peoples for non-indigenous researchers. Findings: The study found that the four family literacy programmes, differing in structure, content, aims and foci, nevertheless shared common principles and practices that reflected programme staff’s overarching concern for people’s wellbeing along with their desire to enhance literacy abilities. A human rights and strengths-based based view of people based on respect for diverse culturally based values and practices were evident in staff expression of their values and beliefs and in their practices. This enacted stance influenced the outcomes of programme participation for the adult participants, their families and their communities. Alongside the literacy and learning gains identified, participants experienced positive social and relational events and changes, affirmation and strengthening of their culturally based values, and affirmation and building of positive identity. Systemically, interconnectedness of programme effects with participants’ personal histories and circumstances; the flow on of effects to other aspects of people’s lives and to their families and communities; and the personalised character of the pathways people journeyed towards enhanced wellbeing were identified. Concluding statement: This paper demonstrates the critical contribution of community psychology to a fuller understanding of family-focused educational programme outcomes than has been previously attainable, the meaning of these broader outcomes to people in their lives, and their role in wellbeing and social justice.

Keywords: community psychology, ecological theory, family literacy education, flow on effects, holistic wellbeing

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4 Implementation of Green Deal Policies and Targets in Energy System Optimization Models: The TEMOA-Europe Case

Authors: Daniele Lerede, Gianvito Colucci, Matteo Nicoli, Laura Savoldi

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The European Green Deal is the first internationally agreed set of measures to contrast climate change and environmental degradation. Besides the main target of reducing emissions by at least 55% by 2030, it sets the target of accompanying European countries through an energy transition to make the European Union into a modern, resource-efficient, and competitive net-zero emissions economy by 2050, decoupling growth from the use of resources and ensuring a fair adaptation of all social categories to the transformation process. While the general purpose to allow the realization of the purposes of the Green Deal already dates back to 2019, strategies and policies keep being developed coping with recent circumstances and achievements. However, general long-term measures like the Circular Economy Action Plan, the proposals to shift from fossil natural gas to renewable and low-carbon gases, in particular biomethane and hydrogen, and to end the sale of gasoline and diesel cars by 2035, will all have significant effects on energy supply and demand evolution across the next decades. The interactions between energy supply and demand over long-term time frames are usually assessed via energy system models to derive useful insights for policymaking and to address technological choices and research and development. TEMOA-Europe is a newly developed energy system optimization model instance based on the minimization of the total cost of the system under analysis, adopting a technologically integrated, detailed, and explicit formulation and considering the evolution of the system in partial equilibrium in competitive markets with perfect foresight. TEMOA-Europe is developed on the TEMOA platform, an open-source modeling framework totally implemented in Python, therefore ensuring third-party verification even on large and complex models. TEMOA-Europe is based on a single-region representation of the European Union and EFTA countries on a time scale between 2005 and 2100, relying on a set of assumptions for socio-economic developments based on projections by the International Energy Outlook and a large technological dataset including 7 sectors: the upstream and power sectors for the production of all energy commodities and the end-use sectors, including industry, transport, residential, commercial and agriculture. TEMOA-Europe also includes an updated hydrogen module considering its production, storage, transportation, and utilization. Besides, it can rely on a wide set of innovative technologies, ranging from nuclear fusion and electricity plants equipped with CCS in the power sector to electrolysis-based steel production processes and steel in the industrial sector – with a techno-economic characterization based on public literature – to produce insightful energy scenarios and especially to cope with the very long analyzed time scale. The aim of this work is to examine in detail the scheme of measures and policies for the realization of the purposes of the Green Deal and to transform them into a set of constraints and new socio-economic development pathways. Based on them, TEMOA-Europe will be used to produce and comparatively analyze scenarios to assess the consequences of Green Deal-related measures on the future evolution of the energy mix over the whole energy system in an economic optimization environment.

Keywords: European Green Deal, energy system optimization modeling, scenario analysis, TEMOA-Europe

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3 Analyzing Perceptions of Leadership Capacities After a Year-Long Leadership Development Training: An Exploratory Study of School Leaders in South Africa

Authors: Norma Kok, Diemo Masuko, Thandokazi Dlongwana, Komala Pillay

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CONTEXT: While many school principals have been outstanding teachers and have inherent leadership potential, many have not had access to the quality of leadership development or support that empowers them to produce high-quality education outcomes in extremely challenging circumstances. Further, school leaders in under-served communities face formidable challenges arising from insufficient infrastructure, overcrowded classrooms, socio-economic challenges within the community, and insufficient parental involvement, all of which put a strain on principals’ ability to lead their schools effectively. In addition few school leaders have access to other supportive networks, and many do not know how to build and leverage social capital to create opportunities for their schools and learners. Moreover, we know that fostering parental involvement in their children’s learning improves a child’s morale, attitude, and academic achievement across all subject areas, and promotes better behaviour and social adjustment. Citizen Leader Lab facilitates the Partners for Possibility (PfP) programme to provide leadership development and support to school leaders serving under-resourced communities in South Africa to create effective environments of learning. This is done by creating partnerships between school leaders and private-sector business leaders over a 12-month period. (185) OBJECTIVES: To explore school leaders’ perceptions of their leadership capacities and changes at their schools after being exposed to a year-long leadership development training programme. METHODS: School leaders gained new leadership capacities e.g. resilience, improved confidence, communication and conflict resolution skills - catalysing into improved cultures of collaborative decision-making and environments for enhanced teaching and learningprogramme based on the 70:20:10 model whereby: 10% of learning comes from workshops, 20% of learning takes place through peer learning and 70% of learning occurs through experiential learning as partnerships work together to identify and tackle challenges in targeted schools. Participants completed a post-programme questionnaire consisting of structured and unstructured questions and semi-structured interviews were conducted with them and their business leader. The interviews were audio-recorded, transcribed and thematic content analysis was undertaken. The analysis was inductive and emerging themes were identified. A code list was generated after coding was undertaken using computer software (Dedoose). Quantitative data gathered from surveys was aggregated and analysed. RESULTS: School leadership found the programme interesting and rewarding. They gained new leadership capacities such as resilience, improved confidence, communication and conflict resolution skills - catalyzing into improved cultures of collaborative decision-making and environments for enhanced teaching and learning. New networks resulted in tangible outcomes such as upgrades to school infrastructure, water and sanitation, vegetable gardens at schools resulting in nutrition for learners and/or intangible outcomes such as skills for members of school management teams (SMTs). Collaborative leadership led to SMTs being more aligned, efficient, and cohesive; and teachers being more engaged and motivated. Notable positive changes at the school inspired parents and community members to become more actively involved in the school and in their children’s education. CONCLUSION: The PfP programme leads to improved leadership capacities and improved school culture which leads to improved teaching and learning and new resources for schools.

Keywords: collaborative decision-making, collaborative leadership, community involvement, confidence

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2 Strategies for Implementing Climate-Resilient Urban Public Spaces: Key Principles of Public Space Design based on People-Centred and Climate-Responsive

Authors: Abimanyu S. Aji, Ima Yusmanita, R. A .Retno Hastijanti, Yudha Utama

Abstract:

The impacts of climate change are increasingly affecting major cities around the world. In April 2024, floods paralyzed Dubai, while in May of the same year, the city of Sao Leopoldo in southern Brazil, Rio Grande do Sul, experienced significant flooding that resulted in hundreds of casualties. In Europe, extreme weather along the Czech-Polish border caused rivers to overflow, carrying debris that destroyed historic cities and bridges and damaged homes. By the end of October 2024, further torrential flooding in Valencia, Spain, led to fatalities. Meanwhile, Southeast Asian cities, particularly Jakarta, are also highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change and face the threat of being submerged due to rising sea levels. In response, the Indonesian government plans to relocate the capital to East Kalimantan, as Jakarta is no longer suitable as the capital city due to major urban problems and the impact of climate change. Given these circumstances, urgent action is needed to develop climate-resilient urban mitigation and adaptation strategies. One promising approach involves developing public space infrastructure that serves multiple functions, enhances resilience, and improves community welfare. Current urban design trends that adapt to climate change can create a new typology of spaces that respond to present or future climatic conditions. Small-scale interventions, such as designing and developing climate-resilient public spaces strategically located within spatial planning, can drive large-scale changes by transforming the urban context and enhancing the city's resilience to climate change. Public spaces represent the identity of a city, and functional public spaces that consider natural elements foster a harmonious interaction between the city and its environment. Additionally, the environmental design of these public spaces can help reduce hot temperatures in densely populated urban areas. The objective of this research is to identify suitable public spaces for transformation that can address climate adaptation challenges. Strategies for creating climate-resilient urban public spaces are categorized into two main aspects: tangible and intangible. Intangible strategies focus on community engagement and incorporate the ‘Penta Helix’ model, which includes five key elements: government, community, academia, business, and media. Tangible strategies encompass infrastructure design that adapts to climate change and adheres to several key principles: community co-creation, community health and welfare, learning through local themes, encouraging behavior change and new habits, fostering green entrepreneurship, enhancing environmental resilience, and promoting ecosystem integration. The outcome of these strategies is to create distinctive and inclusive public space architecture, including biophilic design elements. The methodologies employed in this study include both quantitative and qualitative approaches. The result of this study is a strategic concept that outlines key principles for designing community-centered and climate-responsive public spaces. By identifying the vital role of public spaces, this strategy can serve as a foundation for city-level climate adaptation efforts and raise awareness about the urgency of urban resilience, leveraging existing infrastructure opportunities. Furthermore, this research contributes to the global understanding of resilient urban design, offering valuable insights for other regions facing similar challenges.

Keywords: climate adaptation, city resilience, urban public space, community engagement

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1 A Comprehensive Study of Spread Models of Wildland Fires

Authors: Manavjit Singh Dhindsa, Ursula Das, Kshirasagar Naik, Marzia Zaman, Richard Purcell, Srinivas Sampalli, Abdul Mutakabbir, Chung-Horng Lung, Thambirajah Ravichandran

Abstract:

These days, wildland fires, also known as forest fires, are more prevalent than ever. Wildfires have major repercussions that affect ecosystems, communities, and the environment in several ways. Wildfires lead to habitat destruction and biodiversity loss, affecting ecosystems and causing soil erosion. They also contribute to poor air quality by releasing smoke and pollutants that pose health risks, especially for individuals with respiratory conditions. Wildfires can damage infrastructure, disrupt communities, and cause economic losses. The economic impact of firefighting efforts, combined with their direct effects on forestry and agriculture, causes significant financial difficulties for the areas impacted. This research explores different forest fire spread models and presents a comprehensive review of various techniques and methodologies used in the field. A forest fire spread model is a computational or mathematical representation that is used to simulate and predict the behavior of a forest fire. By applying scientific concepts and data from empirical studies, these models attempt to capture the intricate dynamics of how a fire spreads, taking into consideration a variety of factors like weather patterns, topography, fuel types, and environmental conditions. These models assist authorities in understanding and forecasting the potential trajectory and intensity of a wildfire. Emphasizing the need for a comprehensive understanding of wildfire dynamics, this research explores the approaches, assumptions, and findings derived from various models. By using a comparison approach, a critical analysis is provided by identifying patterns, strengths, and weaknesses among these models. The purpose of the survey is to further wildfire research and management techniques. Decision-makers, researchers, and practitioners can benefit from the useful insights that are provided by synthesizing established information. Fire spread models provide insights into potential fire behavior, facilitating authorities to make informed decisions about evacuation activities, allocating resources for fire-fighting efforts, and planning for preventive actions. Wildfire spread models are also useful in post-wildfire mitigation strategies as they help in assessing the fire's severity, determining high-risk regions for post-fire dangers, and forecasting soil erosion trends. The analysis highlights the importance of customized modeling approaches for various circumstances and promotes our understanding of the way forest fires spread. Some of the known models in this field are Rothermel’s wildland fuel model, FARSITE, WRF-SFIRE, FIRETEC, FlamMap, FSPro, cellular automata model, and others. The key characteristics that these models consider include weather (includes factors such as wind speed and direction), topography (includes factors like landscape elevation), and fuel availability (includes factors like types of vegetation) among other factors. The models discussed are physics-based, data-driven, or hybrid models, also utilizing ML techniques like attention-based neural networks to enhance the performance of the model. In order to lessen the destructive effects of forest fires, this initiative aims to promote the development of more precise prediction tools and effective management techniques. The survey expands its scope to address the practical needs of numerous stakeholders. Access to enhanced early warning systems enables decision-makers to take prompt action. Emergency responders benefit from improved resource allocation strategies, strengthening the efficacy of firefighting efforts.

Keywords: artificial intelligence, deep learning, forest fire management, fire risk assessment, fire simulation, machine learning, remote sensing, wildfire modeling

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