Search results for: maximum likelihood estimation

Authors: Yimer Mohammed Assen, Abiyot Legesse Kura, Engida Esyas Dube, Asebe Regassa Debelo, Girma Kelboro Mensuro, Lete Bekele Gure

Abstract:

Climate change has posed severe threats to many cultural landscapes of UNESCO world heritage sites recently. The UNESCO State of Conservation (SOC) reports categorized flooding, temperature increment, and drought as threats to cultural landscapes. This study aimed to examine variations and trends of rainfall and temperature extreme events and their threats to the UNESCO-designated Konso Cultural Landscape in southern Ethiopia. The study used dense merged satellite-gauge station rainfall data (1981-2020) with spatial resolution of 4km by 4km and observed maximum and minimum temperature data (1987-2020). Qualitative data were also gathered from cultural leaders, local administrators, and religious leaders using structured interview checklists. The spatial patterns, coefficient of variation, standardized anomalies, trends, and magnitude of change of rainfall and temperature extreme events both at annual and seasonal levels were computed using the Mann-Kendall trend test and Sen’s slope estimator under the CDT package. The standard precipitation index (SPI) was also used to calculate drought severity, frequency, and trend maps. The data gathered from key informant interviews and focus group discussions were coded and analyzed thematically to complement statistical findings. Thematic areas that explain the impacts of extreme events on the cultural landscape were chosen for coding. The thematic analysis was conducted using Nvivo software. The findings revealed that rainfall was highly variable and unpredictable, resulting in extreme drought and flood. There were significant (P<0.05) increasing trends of heavy rainfall (R10mm and R20mm) and the total amount of rain on wet days (PRCPTOT), which might have resulted in flooding. The study also confirmed that absolute temperature extreme indices (TXx, TXn, and TNx) and the percentile-based temperature extreme indices (TX90p, TN90p, TX10p, and TN10P) showed significant (P<0.05) increasing trends which are signals for warming of the study area. The results revealed that the frequency as well as the severity of drought at 3-months (katana/hageya seasons) was more pronounced than the 12-months (annual) time scale. The highest number of droughts in 100 years is projected at a 3-months timescale across the study area. The findings also showed that frequent drought has led to loss of grasses which are used for making traditional individual houses and multipurpose communal houses (pafta), food insecurity, migration, loss of biodiversity, and commodification of stones from terrace. On the other hand, the increasing trends of rainfall extreme indices resulted in destruction of terraces, soil erosion, loss of life and damage of properties. The study shows that a persistent decline in farmland productivity, due to erratic and extreme rainfall and frequent drought occurrences, forced the local people to participate in non-farm activities and retreat from daily preservation and management of their landscape. Overall, the increasing rainfall and temperature extremes coupled with prevalence of drought are thought to have an impact on the sustainability of cultural landscape through disrupting the ecosystem services and livelihood of the community. Therefore, more localized adaptation and mitigation strategies to the changing climate are needed to maintain the sustainability of Konso cultural landscapes as a global cultural treasure and to strengthen the resilience of smallholder farmers.

Keywords: adaptation, cultural landscape, drought, extremes indices

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Authors: Charaia Vakhtang

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Global oil prices are seeing new bottoms every day. The prices have already collapsed beneath the psychological verge of 30 USD. This tendency would be fully acceptable for the Georgian consumers, but there is one detail: two our neighboring countries (one friendly and one hostile) largely depend on resources of these hydrocarbons. Namely, the ratio of Azerbaijan in Georgia’s total FDI inflows in 2014 marked 20%. The ratio reached 40% in the January to September 2015. Azerbaijan is Georgia’s leading exports market. Namely, in 2014 Georgia’s exports to Azerbaijan constituted 544 million USD, i.e. 19% in Georgia’s total experts. In the January to November period of 2015, the ratio exceeded 11%. Moreover, Azerbaijan is Georgia’s strategic partner country as part of many regional projects that are designated for long-term perspectives. For example, the Baku-Tbilisi-Karsi railroad, the Black Sea terminal, preferential gas tariffs for Georgia and so on. The Russian economic contribution to the Georgian economy is also considerable, despite the losses the Russian hostile policy has inflicted to our country. Namely, Georgian emigrants are mainly employed in the Russian Federation and this category of Georgian citizens transfers considerable funds to Georgia every year. These transfers account for about 1 billion USD and consequently, these funds previously equalized to total FDI inflows. Moreover, despite the difficulties in the Russian market, Russia still remains a leader in terms of money transfers to Georgia. According to the last reports, money transfers from Russia to Georgia slipped by 276 million USD in 2015 compared to 2014 (-39%). At the same time, the total money transfers to Georgia in 2015 marked 1.08 billion USD, down 25% from 1.44 billion USD in 2014. This signifies the contraction in money transfers is by ¾ dependent on the Russian factor (in this case, contraction in oil prices and the Russian Ruble devaluation directly make negative impact on money transfers to Georgia). As to other countries, it is interesting that money transfers have also slipped from Italy (to 109 million USD from 121 million USD). Nevertheless, the country’s ratio in total money transfers to Georgia has increased to 10% from 8%. Money transfers to Georgia have increased by 22% (+18 million USD) from the USA. Money transfers have halved from Greece to 117 million USD from 205 million USD. As to Turkey, money transfers to Georgia from Turkey have increased by 1% to 69 million USD. Moreover, the problems with the national currencies of Russia and Azerbaijan, along with the above-mentioned developments, outline unfavorable perspectives for the Georgian economy. The depreciation of the national currencies of Azerbaijan and Russia is expected to bring unfavorable results for the Georgian economy. Even more so, the statement released by the Russian Finance Ministry on expected default is in direct relation to the welfare of the whole region and these tendencies will make direct and indirect negative impacts on Georgia’s economic indicators. Amid the economic slowdown in Armenia, Turkey and Ukraine, Georgia should try to enhance economic ties with comparatively stronger and flexible economies such as EU and USA. In other case, the Georgian economy will enter serious turbulent zone. We should make maximum benefit from the EU association agreement. It should be noted that the Russian economy slowdown that causes both regretful and happy moods in Georgia, will make negative impact on the Georgian economy. The same forecasts are made in relation to Azerbaijan. However, Georgia has many partner countries. Enhancement and development of the economic relations with these countries may maximally alleviate negative impacts from the declining economies. First of all, the EU association agreement should be mentioned as a main source for Georgia’s economic stabilization. It is the Georgian government‘s responsibility to successfully fulfill the EU association agreement requirements. In any case the imports must be replaced by domestic products and the exports should be stimulated through government support programs. The Authorities should ensure drawing more foreign investments and money resources, accumulating more tourism revenues and reducing external debts, budget expenditures should be balanced and the National Bank should carry out strict monetary policy. Moreover, the Government should develop a long-term state economic policy and carry out this policy at various Ministries. It is also of crucial importance to carry out constitutive policy and promote perspective directions on the domestic level.

Keywords: oil prices, economic growth, foreign direct investments, international trade

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Authors: Erika T. Fajardo-Ariza, Luis A. Castillo-Sanabria, Andrea Nieto-Veloza, Carlos M. Zuluaga-Domínguez

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The growing emphasis on sustainable food production and preservation has driven the development of innovative solutions to minimize postharvest losses and improve market access for small-scale farmers. This project focuses on designing, constructing, and selecting materials for solar dryers in certain regions of Colombia where inadequate infrastructure limits access to major commercial hubs. Postharvest losses pose a significant challenge, impacting food security and farmer income. Addressing these losses is crucial for enhancing the value of agricultural products and supporting local economies. A comprehensive survey of local farmers revealed substantial challenges, including limited market access, inefficient transportation, and significant postharvest losses. For crops such as coffee, bananas, and citrus fruits, losses range from 0% to 50%, driven by factors like labor shortages, adverse climatic conditions, and transportation difficulties. To address these issues, the project prioritized selecting effective materials for the solar dryer. Various materials, recovered acrylic, original acrylic, glass, and polystyrene, were tested for their performance. The tests showed that recovered acrylic and glass were most effective in increasing the temperature difference between the interior and the external environment. The solar dryer was designed using Fusion 360® software (Autodesk, USA) and adhered to architectural guidelines from Architectural Graphic Standards. It features up to sixteen aluminum trays, each with a maximum load capacity of 3.5 kg, arranged in two levels to optimize drying efficiency. The constructed dryer was then tested with two locally available plant materials: green plantains (Musa paradisiaca L.) and snack bananas (Musa AA Simonds). To monitor performance, Thermo hygrometers and an Arduino system recorded internal and external temperature and humidity at one-minute intervals. Despite challenges such as adverse weather conditions and delays in local government funding, the active involvement of local producers was a significant advantage, fostering ownership and understanding of the project. The solar dryer operated under conditions of 31°C dry bulb temperature (Tbs), 55% relative humidity, and 21°C wet bulb temperature (Tbh). The drying curves showed a consistent drying period with critical moisture content observed between 200 and 300 minutes, followed by a sharp decrease in moisture loss, reaching an equilibrium point after 3,400 minutes. Although the solar dryer requires more time and is highly dependent on atmospheric conditions, it can approach the efficiency of an electric dryer when properly optimized. The successful design and construction of solar dryer systems in difficult-to-access areas represent a significant advancement in agricultural sustainability and postharvest loss reduction. By choosing effective materials such as recovered acrylic and implementing a carefully planned design, the project provides a valuable tool for local farmers. The initiative not only improves the quality and marketability of agricultural products but also offers broader environmental benefits, such as reduced reliance on fossil fuels and decreased waste. Additionally, it supports economic growth by enhancing the value of crops and potentially increasing farmer income. The successful implementation and testing of the dryer, combined with the engagement of local stakeholders, highlight its potential for replication and positive impact in similar contexts.

Keywords: drying technology, postharvest loss reduction, solar dryers, sustainable agriculture

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Authors: Katerina Zaharieva, Katya Milenova, Zara Cherkezova-Zheleva, Alexander Eliyas, Boris Kunev, Ivan Mitov

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The synthesized nanosized manganese ferrite-type of samples have been tested as photocatalysts in the reaction of oxidative degradation of model contaminant Reactive Black 5 (RB5) dye in aqueous solutions under UV irradiation. As it is known this azo dye is applied in the textile-coloring industry and it is discharged into the waterways causing pollution. The co-precipitation procedure has been used for the synthesis of manganese ferrite-type of materials: Sample 1 - Mn0.25Fe2.75O4, Sample 2 - Mn0.5Fe2.5O4 and Sample 3 - MnFe2O4 from 0.03M aqueous solutions of MnCl2•4H2O, FeCl2•4H2O and/or FeCl3•6H2O and 0.3M NaOH in appropriate amounts. The mechanochemical activation of co-precipitated ferrite-type of samples has been performed in argon (Samples 1 and 2) or in air atmosphere (Sample 3) for 2 hours at a milling speed of 500 rpm. The mechano-chemical treatment has been carried out in a high energy planetary ball mill type PM 100, Retsch, Germany. The mass ratio between balls and powder was 30:1. As a result mechanochemically activated Sample 4 - Mn0.25Fe2.75O4, Sample 5 - Mn0.5Fe2.5O4 and Sample 6 - MnFe2O4 have been obtained. The synthesized manganese ferrite-type photocatalysts have been characterized by X-ray diffraction method and Moessbauer spectroscopy. The registered X-ray diffraction patterns and Moessbauer spectra of co-precipitated ferrite-type of materials show the presence of manganese ferrite and additional akaganeite phase. The presence of manganese ferrite and small amounts of iron phases is established in the mechanochemically treated samples. The calculated average crystallite size of manganese ferrites varies within the range 7 – 13 nm. This result is confirmed by Moessbauer study. The registered spectra show superparamagnetic behavior of the prepared materials at room temperature. The photocatalytic investigations have been made using polychromatic UV-A light lamp (Sylvania BLB, 18 W) illumination with wavelength maximum at 365 nm. The intensity of light irradiation upon the manganese ferrite-type photocatalysts was 0.66 mW.cm-2. The photocatalytic reaction of oxidative degradation of RB5 dye was carried out in a semi-batch slurry photocatalytic reactor with 0.15 g of ferrite-type powder, 150 ml of 20 ppm dye aqueous solution under magnetic stirring at rate 400 rpm and continuously feeding air flow. The samples achieved adsorption-desorption equilibrium in the dark period for 30 min and then the UV-light was turned on. After regular time intervals aliquot parts from the suspension were taken out and centrifuged to separate the powder from solution. The residual concentrations of dye were established by a UV-Vis absorbance single beam spectrophotometer CamSpec M501 (UK) measuring in the wavelength region from 190 to 800 nm. The photocatalytic measurements determined that the apparent pseudo-first-order rate constants calculated by linear slopes approximating to first order kinetic equation, increase in following order: Sample 3 (1.1х10-3 min-1) < Sample 1 (2.2х10-3 min-1) < Sample 2 (3.3 х10-3 min-1) < Sample 4 (3.8х10-3 min-1) < Sample 6 (11х10-3 min-1) < Sample 5 (15.2х10-3 min-1). The mechanochemically activated manganese ferrite-type of photocatalyst samples show significantly higher degree of oxidative degradation of RB5 dye after 120 minutes of UV light illumination in comparison with co-precipitated ferrite-type samples: Sample 5 (92%) > Sample 6 (91%) > Sample 4 (63%) > Sample 2 (53%) > Sample 1 (42%) > Sample 3 (15%). Summarizing the obtained results we conclude that the mechanochemical activation leads to a significant enhancement of the degree of oxidative degradation of the RB5 dye and photocatalytic activity of tested manganese ferrite-type of catalyst samples under our experimental conditions. The mechanochemically activated Mn0.5Fe2.5O4 ferrite-type of material displays the highest photocatalytic activity (15.2х10-3 min-1) and degree of oxidative degradation of the RB5 dye (92%) compared to the other synthesized samples. Especially a significant improvement in the degree of oxidative degradation of RB5 dye (91%) has been determined for mechanochemically treated MnFe2O4 ferrite-type of sample with the highest extent of substitution of iron ions by manganese ions than in the case of the co-precipitated MnFe2O4 sample (15%). The mechanochemically activated manganese ferrite-type of samples show good photocatalytic properties in the reaction of oxidative degradation of RB5 azo dye in aqueous solutions and it could find potential application for dye removal from wastewaters originating from textile industry.

Keywords: nanostructured manganese ferrite-type materials, photocatalytic activity, Reactive Black 5, water treatment

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