Search results for: Particle Markov chain Monte Carlo (PMCMC)

Authors: Sireetorn Kuharat, Anwar Beg

Abstract:

Motivation- Solar energy constitutes the most promising renewable energy source on earth. Nanofluids are a very successful family of engineered fluids, which contain well-dispersed nanoparticles suspended in a stable base fluid. The presence of metallic nanoparticles (e.g. gold, silver, copper, aluminum etc) significantly improves the thermo-physical properties of the host fluid and generally results in a considerable boost in thermal conductivity, density, and viscosity of nanofluid compared with the original base (host) fluid. This modification in fundamental thermal properties has profound implications in influencing the convective heat transfer process in solar collectors. The potential for improving solar collector direct absorber efficiency is immense and to gain a deeper insight into the impact of different metallic nanoparticles on efficiency and temperature enhancement, in the present work, we describe recent computational fluid dynamics simulations of an annular solar collector system. The present work studies several different metallic nano-particles and compares their performance. Methodologies- A numerical study of convective heat transfer in an annular pipe solar collector system is conducted. The inner tube contains pure water and the annular region contains nanofluid. Three-dimensional steady-state incompressible laminar flow comprising water- (and other) based nanofluid containing a variety of metallic nanoparticles (copper oxide, aluminum oxide, and titanium oxide nanoparticles) is examined. The Tiwari-Das model is deployed for which thermal conductivity, specific heat capacity and viscosity of the nanofluid suspensions is evaluated as a function of solid nano-particle volume fraction. Radiative heat transfer is also incorporated using the ANSYS solar flux and Rosseland radiative models. The ANSYS FLUENT finite volume code (version 18.1) is employed to simulate the thermo-fluid characteristics via the SIMPLE algorithm. Mesh-independence tests are conducted. Validation of the simulations is also performed with a computational Harlow-Welch MAC (Marker and Cell) finite difference method and excellent correlation achieved. The influence of volume fraction on temperature, velocity, pressure contours is computed and visualized. Main findings- The best overall performance is achieved with copper oxide nanoparticles. Thermal enhancement is generally maximized when water is utilized as the base fluid, although in certain cases ethylene glycol also performs very efficiently. Increasing nanoparticle solid volume fraction elevates temperatures although the effects are less prominent in aluminum and titanium oxide nanofluids. Significant improvement in temperature distributions is achieved with copper oxide nanofluid and this is attributed to the superior thermal conductivity of copper compared to other metallic nano-particles studied. Important fluid dynamic characteristics are also visualized including circulation and temperature shoots near the upper region of the annulus. Radiative flux is observed to enhance temperatures significantly via energization of the nanofluid although again the best elevation in performance is attained consistently with copper oxide. Conclusions-The current study generalizes previous investigations by considering multiple metallic nano-particles and furthermore provides a good benchmark against which to calibrate experimental tests on a new solar collector configuration currently being designed at Salford University. Important insights into the thermal conductivity and viscosity with metallic nano-particles is also provided in detail. The analysis is also extendable to other metallic nano-particles including gold and zinc.

Keywords: heat transfer, annular nanofluid solar collector, ANSYS FLUENT, metallic nanoparticles

Procedia PDF Downloads 138

Authors: Justin Woulfe

Abstract:

Siloed logistics and supply chain management systems throughout the Department of Defense (DOD) has led to disparate approaches to modeling and simulation (M&S), a lack of understanding of how one system impacts the whole, and issues with “optimal” solutions that are good for one organization but have dramatic negative impacts on another. Many different systems have evolved to try to understand and account for uncertainty and try to reduce the consequences of the unknown. As the DoD undertakes expansive digital transformation initiatives, there is an opportunity to fuse and leverage traditionally disparate data into a centrally hosted source of truth. With a streamlined process incorporating machine learning (ML) and artificial intelligence (AI), advanced M&S will enable informed decisions guiding program success via optimized operational readiness and improved mission success. One of the current challenges is to leverage the terabytes of data generated by monitored systems to provide actionable information for all levels of users. The implementation of a cloud-based application analyzing data transactions, learning and predicting future states from current and past states in real-time, and communicating those anticipated states is an appropriate solution for the purposes of reduced latency and improved confidence in decisions. Decisions made from an ML and AI application combined with advanced optimization algorithms will improve the mission success and performance of systems, which will improve the overall cost and effectiveness of any program. The Systecon team constructs and employs model-based simulations, cutting across traditional silos of data, aggregating maintenance, and supply data, incorporating sensor information, and applying optimization and simulation methods to an as-maintained digital twin with the ability to aggregate results across a system’s lifecycle and across logical and operational groupings of systems. This coupling of data throughout the enterprise enables tactical, operational, and strategic decision support, detachable and deployable logistics services, and configuration-based automated distribution of digital technical and product data to enhance supply and logistics operations. As a complete solution, this approach significantly reduces program risk by allowing flexible configuration of data, data relationships, business process workflows, and early test and evaluation, especially budget trade-off analyses. A true capability to tie resources (dollars) to weapon system readiness in alignment with the real-world scenarios a warfighter may experience has been an objective yet to be realized to date. By developing and solidifying an organic capability to directly relate dollars to readiness and to inform the digital twin, the decision-maker is now empowered through valuable insight and traceability. This type of educated decision-making provides an advantage over the adversaries who struggle with maintaining system readiness at an affordable cost. The M&S capability developed allows program managers to independently evaluate system design and support decisions by quantifying their impact on operational availability and operations and support cost resulting in the ability to simultaneously optimize readiness and cost. This will allow the stakeholders to make data-driven decisions when trading cost and readiness throughout the life of the program. Finally, sponsors are available to validate product deliverables with efficiency and much higher accuracy than in previous years.

Keywords: artificial intelligence, digital transformation, machine learning, predictive analytics

Procedia PDF Downloads 154

Authors: Gospel Iyioku, Jana Mazancova, Jiri Hejkrlik

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The “Agricultural Promotion Policy (2016–2020)” represents a strategic initiative by the Nigerian government to address domestic food shortages and the challenges in exporting products at the required quality standards. Hindered by an inefficient system for setting and enforcing food quality standards, coupled with a lack of market knowledge, the Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (FMARD) aims to enhance support for the production and activities of key crops like cashew. By collaborating with farmers, processors, investors, and stakeholders in the cashew sector, the policy seeks to define and uphold high-quality standards across the cashew value chain. Given the challenges and opportunities faced by Nigerian cashew farmers, active participation in cashew marketing groups becomes imperative. These groups serve as essential platforms for farmers to collectively navigate market intricacies, access resources, share knowledge, improve output quality, and bolster their overall bargaining power. Through engagement in these cooperative initiatives, farmers not only boost their economic prospects but can also contribute significantly to the sustainable growth of the cashew industry, fostering resilience and community development. This study explores the perceptions and intentions of farmers regarding their involvement in cashew marketing cooperatives, utilizing an expanded version of the Theory of Planned Behaviour. Drawing insights from a diverse sample of 321 cashew farmers in Southwest Nigeria, the research sheds light on the factors influencing decision-making in cooperative participation. The demographic analysis reveals a diverse landscape, with a substantial presence of middle-aged individuals contributing significantly to the agricultural sector and cashew-related activities emerging as a primary income source for a substantial proportion (23.99%). Employing Structural Equation Modelling (SEM) with Maximum Likelihood Robust (MLR) estimation in R, the research elucidates the associations among latent variables. Despite the model’s complexity, the goodness-of-fit indices attest to the validity of the structural model, explaining approximately 40% of the variance in the intention to join cooperatives. Moral norms emerge as a pivotal construct, highlighting the profound influence of ethical considerations in decision-making processes, while perceived behavioural control presents potential challenges in active participation. Attitudes toward joining cooperatives reveal nuanced perspectives, with strong beliefs in enhanced connections with other farmers but varying perceptions on improved access to essential information. The SEM analysis establishes positive and significant effects of moral norms, perceived behavioural control, subjective norms, and attitudes on farmers’ intention to join cooperatives. The knowledge construct positively affects key factors influencing intention, emphasizing the importance of informed decision-making. A supplementary analysis using partial least squares (PLS) SEM corroborates the robustness of our findings, aligning with covariance-based SEM results. This research unveils the determinants of cooperative participation and provides valuable insights for policymakers and practitioners aiming to empower and support this vital demographic in the cashew industry.

Keywords: marketing cooperatives, theory of planned behaviour, structural equation modelling, cashew farmers

Procedia PDF Downloads 76

Authors: Volker Wannack

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Regional, national, and international strategies focusing on hydrogen (H₂) and blockchain are driving significant advancements in hydrogen and blockchain technology worldwide. These strategies lay the foundation for the groundbreaking "Blockchain Based Hydrogen Market (BBH₂)" project. The primary goal of this project is to develop a functional Blockchain Minimum Viable Product (B-MVP) for the hydrogen market. The B-MVP will leverage blockchain as an enabling technology with a common database and platform, facilitating secure and automated transactions through smart contracts. This innovation will revolutionize logistics, trading, and transactions within the hydrogen market. The B-MVP has transformative potential across various sectors. It benefits renewable energy producers, surplus energy-based hydrogen producers, hydrogen transport and distribution grid operators, and hydrogen consumers. By implementing standardized, automated, and tamper-proof processes, the B-MVP enhances cost efficiency and enables transparent and traceable transactions. Its key objective is to establish the verifiable integrity of climate-friendly "green" hydrogen by tracing its supply chain from renewable energy producers to end users. This emphasis on transparency and accountability promotes economic, ecological, and social sustainability while fostering a secure and transparent market environment. A notable feature of the B-MVP is its cross-border operability, eliminating the need for country-specific data storage and expanding its global applicability. This flexibility not only broadens its reach but also creates opportunities for long-term job creation through the establishment of a dedicated blockchain operating company. By attracting skilled workers and supporting their training, the B-MVP strengthens the workforce in the growing hydrogen sector. Moreover, it drives the emergence of innovative business models that attract additional company establishments and startups and contributes to long-term job creation. For instance, data evaluation can be utilized to develop customized tariffs and provide demand-oriented network capacities to producers and network operators, benefitting redistributors and end customers with tamper-proof pricing options. The B-MVP not only brings technological and economic advancements but also enhances the visibility of national and international standard-setting efforts. Regions implementing the B-MVP become pioneers in climate-friendly, sustainable, and forward-thinking practices, generating interest beyond their geographic boundaries. Additionally, the B-MVP serves as a catalyst for research and development, facilitating knowledge transfer between universities and companies. This collaborative environment fosters scientific progress, aligns with strategic innovation management, and cultivates an innovation culture within the hydrogen market. Through the integration of blockchain and hydrogen technologies, the B-MVP promotes holistic innovation and contributes to a sustainable future in the hydrogen industry. The implementation process involves evaluating and mapping suitable blockchain technology and architecture, developing and implementing the blockchain, smart contracts, and depositing certificates of origin. It also includes creating interfaces to existing systems such as nomination, portfolio management, trading, and billing systems, testing the scalability of the B-MVP to other markets and user groups, developing data formats for process-relevant data exchange, and conducting field studies to validate the B-MVP. BBH₂ is part of the "Technology Offensive Hydrogen" funding call within the research funding of the Federal Ministry of Economics and Climate Protection in the 7th Energy Research Programme of the Federal Government.

Keywords: hydrogen, blockchain, sustainability, innovation, structural change

Procedia PDF Downloads 160

Authors: Veenapani Rajeev Verma

Abstract:

Context: Assessing facility readiness is paramount as it can indicate capacity of facilities to provide essential care for resilience to health challenges. In the context of decentralization, estimation of supply side readiness indices at sub national level is imperative for effective evidence based policy but remains a colossal challenge due to lack of dependable and representative data sources. Setting: District Poonch of Jammu and Kashmir was selected for this study. It is remote, rural district with unprecedented topographical barriers and is identified as high priority by government. It is also a fragile area as is bounded by Line of Control with Pakistan bearing the brunt of cease fire violations, military skirmishes and sporadic militant attacks. Hilly geographical terrain, rudimentary/absence of road network and impoverishment are quintessential to this area. Objectives: Objective of the study is to a) Evaluate the service readiness of health facilities and create a concise index subsuming plethora of discrete indicators and b) Ascertain supply side barriers in service provisioning via stakeholder’s analysis. Study also strives to expand analytical domain unravelling context and area specific intricacies associated with service delivery. Methodology: Mixed method approach was employed to triangulate quantitative analysis with qualitative nuances. Facility survey encompassing 90 Subcentres, 44 Primary health centres, 3 Community health centres and 1 District hospital was conducted to gauge general service availability and service specific availability (depth of coverage). Compendium of checklist was designed using Indian Public Health Standards (IPHS) in form of standard core questionnaire and scorecard generated for each facility. Information was collected across dimensions of amenities, equipment, medicines, laboratory and infection control protocols as proposed in WHO’s Service Availability and Readiness Assesment (SARA). Two stage polychoric principal component analysis employed to generate a parsimonious index by coalescing an array of tracer indicators. OLS regression method used to determine factors explaining composite index generated from PCA. Stakeholder analysis was conducted to discern qualitative information. Myriad of techniques like observations, key informant interviews and focus group discussions using semi structured questionnaires on both leaders and laggards were administered for critical stakeholder’s analysis. Results: General readiness score of health facilities was found to be 0.48. Results indicated poorest readiness for subcentres and PHC’s (first point of contact) with composite score of 0.47 and 0.41 respectively. For primary care facilities; principal component was characterized by basic newborn care as well as preparedness for delivery. Results revealed availability of equipment and surgical preparedness having lowest score (0.46 and 0.47) for facilities providing secondary care. Presence of contractual staff, more than 1 hr walk to facility, facilities in zone A (most vulnerable) to cross border shelling and facilities inaccessible due to snowfall and thick jungles was negatively associated with readiness index. Nonchalant staff attitude, unavailability of staff quarters, leakages and constraint in supply chain of drugs and consumables were other impediments identified. Conclusions/Policy Implications: It is pertinent to first strengthen primary care facilities in this setting. Complex dimensions such as geographic barriers, user and provider behavior is not under precinct of this methodology.

Keywords: effective coverage, principal component analysis, readiness index, universal health coverage

Procedia PDF Downloads 106