Search results for: dividend paying stocks

Authors: Bisi S. Olawoyin

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This study attempts an exploration into behavioural finance in which the traditional assumptions of expected utility maximization with rational investors in efficient markets are dropped. It reviews prior research and evidence about how psychological biases affect investors behaviour and stock selection. This study examined the relationship between demographic variables and financial behaviour biases among public sector retirees who invested in the Nigerian Stock Exchange prior to their retirement. By using questionnaire survey method, a total of 214 valid convenient samples were collected in order to determine how specific demographic and psychological trait affect stock selection between dividend paying and non-dividend paying stocks. Descriptive statistics and OLS were used to analyse the results. Findings showed that most of the retirees prefer dividend paying stocks in few years preceding their retirement but still hold on to their non-dividend paying stock on retirement. A significant difference also exists between senior and junior retirees in preference for non-dividend paying stocks. These findings are consistent with the clientele theories of dividend.

Keywords: behavioural finance, clientele theories, dividend paying stocks, stock selection

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Authors: Jiahau Guo, Yihe Zhang

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This paper proposes solutions for pricing options on stocks paying discrete dividends in markets with daily price limits. We first extend the intraday density function of Guo and Chang (2020) to a multi-day one and use the framework of Haug et al. (2003) to value European options on stocks paying discrete dividends. Next, we adopt the fast Fourier transform (FFT) to derive accurate and efficient formulae for American options and further employ the three-point Richardson extrapolation to accelerate the computation. Finally, the accuracy of our proposed methods is verified by simulations.

Keywords: daily price limit, discrete dividend, early exercise, fast Fourier transform, multi-day density function, Richardson extrapolation

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Authors: Mohammed Benlemlih

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Using a sample of 22,839 US firm-year observations over the 1991-2012 period, we find that high CSR firms pay more dividends than low CSR firms. The analysis of individual components of CSR provides strong support for this main finding: five of the six individual dimensions are also associated with high dividend payout. When analyzing the stability of dividend payout, our results show that socially irresponsible firms adjust dividends more rapidly than socially responsible firms do: dividend payout is more stable in high CSR firms. Additional results suggest that firms involved in two controversial activities -the military and alcohol - are associated with low dividend payouts. These findings are robust to alternative assumptions and model specifications, alternative measures of dividend, additional control, and several approaches to address endogeneity. Overall, our results are consistent with the expectation that high CSR firms may use dividend policy to manage the agency problems related to overinvestment in CSR.

Keywords: corporate social responsibility, dividend policy, Lintner model, agency theory, signaling theory, dividend stability

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Authors: Abhinav Kumar Rajverma, Arun Kumar Misra, Abhijeet Chandra

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Family involvement in business is universal across countries, with varying characteristics. Firms of developed economies have diffused ownership structure; however, that of emerging markets have concentrated ownership structure, having resemblance with that of family firms. Optimization of dividend payout and leverage are very crucial for firm’s valuation. This paper studies dividend paying behavior of National Stock Exchange listed Indian firms from financial year 2007 to 2016. The final sample consists of 422 firms and of these more than 49% (207) are family firms. Results reveal that family firms pay lower dividend and are more leveraged compared to non-family firms. This unique data set helps to understand dividend behavior and capital structure of sample firms over a long-time period and across varying family ownership concentration. Using panel regression models, this paper examines factors affecting dividend payout and capital structure and establishes a link between the two using Two-stage Least Squares regression model. Profitability shows a positive impact on dividend and negative impact on leverage, confirming signaling and pecking order theory. Further, findings support bankruptcy theory as firm size has a positive relation with dividend and leverage and volatility shows a negative relation with both dividend and leverage. Findings are also consistent with agency theory, family ownership concentration has negative relation with both dividend payments and leverage. Further, the impact of family ownership control confirms the similar finding. The study further reveals that firms with high family ownership concentration (family control) do have an impact on determining the level of private benefits. Institutional ownership is not significant for dividend payments. However, it shows significant negative relation with leverage for both family and non-family firms. Dividend payout and leverage show mixed association with each other. This paper provides evidence of how varying level of family ownership concentration and ownership control influences the dividend policy and capital structure of firms in an emerging market like India and it can have significant contribution towards understanding and formulating corporate dividend policy decisions and capital structure for emerging economies, where majority of firms exhibit behavior of family firm.

Keywords: dividend, family firms, leverage, ownership structure

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Authors: Nithi Sermsiriviboon, Somchai Supattarakul

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Dividend initiations are an economically significant event that has important implications for a firm’s future financial capacity. Given that the market’s expectation of a consistent payout, managers of IPO firms must approach the initial dividend decision cautiously. We compare the long run performance of IPO firms that initiated dividends with those of similarly matched non-payers. We found that firms which initiated dividends perform significantly better up to three years after the initiation date. Moreover, we measure investor reactions by 2-day around dividend announcement date cumulative abnormal return. We evidence no statistically significant differences between cumulative abnormal returns (CAR) of IPO firms and cumulative abnormal returns of Non-IPO firms, indicating that investors do not respond to dividend announcement of IPO firms more than they do to the dividend announcement of Non-IPO firms.

Keywords: dividend, initial public offerings, long-run performance, finance

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Authors: Malathi Iyer, Jayesh Vaidya

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The demographic dividend of India will last for thirty years from now. However, reduction in birth rate, an increase in working population, improvements in medicine and better health practices lead to an ever-expanding elderly population, bringing additional burden to the economy and putting an end to the demographic dividend. To reap the dividend India needs to train the youth for employability. The need of the hour is to improve their life skills which lead the youth to become industrious and have continuous employment. The study will be conducted in perceiving the skill gaps that exist in commerce students for employability. The analysis results indicate the relation between the core study and the right skills for the workforce, with the steps that are taken to open the window for the demographic dividend.

Keywords: demographic dividend, life skills, employability, workforce

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Authors: Mahdi Azizzadeh, Ali Nabizadeh

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This paper investigates whether ownership structure has significant effects on dividend policy and the percentage of cash dividend payout ratio in Iranian companies listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange. We use a sample of 300 firm-years for 2010-2014. Results indicate that there is no significant relationship between family ownership and/or institutional ownership and dividend policy. Furthermore, there is no significant relationship between dividend policies in family-owned firms with high or low institutional ownership. However, our empirical test shows that family firms with a low level of institutional investors distribute more cash dividends on average than family firms with a high level of institutional ownership.

Keywords: family ownership, institutional ownership, dividend policy, dividend payout ratio

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Authors: Anwar Hussain, Ahmed Imran, Farida Faisal, Fatima Sultana

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The present research evaluates a comparative assessment of dividend policy and share price across the South Asian countries including Pakistan, India and Sri-Lanka over the period of 2010 to 2014. Academic writers found that dividend policy and share price relationship is not same in south Asian market due to different reasons. Moreover, Panel Models used = for the evaluation of current study. In addition, Redundant fixed effect Likelihood and Hausman test used for determine of Common, Fixed and Random effect model. Therefore Indian market dividend policies play a fundamental role and significant impact on Market Share Prices. Although, present research found that different as compared to previous study that dividend policy have no impact on share price in Sri-Lanka and Pakistan.

Keywords: dividend policy, share price, South Asian countries, panel data analysis, theories and parameters of dividend

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Authors: Abisola Akinola, Akinsulere Femi

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The stock market has continually been a source of economic development in most developing countries. This study examined the relationship between investors’ ratio analysis and profitability of quoted companies in Nigeria using secondary data obtained from the annual reports of forty-two (42) companies. The study employed the multiple regression technique to analyze the relationship between investors’ ratio analysis (measured by dividend per share and earning per share) and profitability (measured by the return on equity). The results from the analysis show that investors’ ratio analysis, when measured by earnings per share, have a positive and significant impact on profitability. However, the study noted that investors’ ratio analysis, when measured by dividend per share, tend to have a positive impact on profitability but it is statistically insignificant. By implication, investors and other stakeholders that are interested in investing in stocks can predict the earning capacity of listed firms in the stock market.

Keywords: dividend per share, earnings per share, profitability, return on equity

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Authors: Benjamin Bae, Mahdy Elhusseiny, Sherif El-Halaby

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This study investigates the relationship between some cultural factors and the level of dividend payouts of banks in a number of Muslim countries. We examine whether cultural factors play any role in determining dividend payout policy in banks. The results suggest that banks in high masculinity countries tend to pay higher dividends than low masculinity countries. The results also show that banks in high uncertainty avoidance (UA) countries tend to pay lower dividends than high UA countries. Additionally, the results of this study indicate that banks in high long-term orientation (LTO) countries tend to pay lower dividends than low LTO countries. However, two other cultural factors of power distance (PD) and individualism do not have any incremental explanatory power on the dividend payouts. Overall, this research adds to our understanding of the bank’s dividend payout policies. First, evidence on the relationship between the cultural factors and bank’s level of dividend payouts should be useful to investors. Second, the findings of this study provide financial statement users with useful information about the bank’s dividend payout levels. Third, in general, it also adds to the accounting and finance literature on dividends.

Keywords: cultural factor, dividend payout, Hofstede index, bank industry

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Authors: Madani Chahinaz

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This study aims to shed light on the impact of dividend policy on corporate profitability and its relationship to growth, considering the economic developments taking place. The study was conducted on a sample of seven companies for the period from 2014 to 2020, based on a set of determinants to select variables affecting dividend distribution, where the descriptive analytical approach relied upon using graphical data models. The study concluded that companies that follow a well-studied dividend distribution policy enjoy higher profitability rates, which contributes to enhancing their growth in light of the economic developments taking place. There is also no statistically significant relationship between the variables of total asset growth and fixed asset growth and profitability. The study also concluded that there is statistical significance for the relationship between the sales volume growth variable, the self-financing ratio variable, and dividend distribution at a significance level of 0.05, as the random effects model was able to explain 68% of the changes in dividend distribution policy.

Keywords: dividend distribution policy, profitability, growth, self-financing ratio

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Authors: Faustina Masocha

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This study sought to determine if the Covid-19 pandemic played a disruptive role in the signalling effect of dividend increases for the Top 40 companies listed on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange. With the use of Event Study Methodologies, it was found that dividend increases that were announced in the 2018 and 2019 financial years resulted in Cumulative Abnormal Returns (CARs) that were significantly different from zero, as confirmed by a p-value of 0,0300. This resulted in the conclusion that, under normal circumstances, dividend increases follow the precepts outlined in signalling theories which indicate that the announcement of dividend increases sent positive signals about the expected financial performance of a company. To prove the notion that Covid-19 plays a disruptive role on the signalling hypothesis, it was found from both parametric and non-parametric tests of significance that CARs related to dividend increases that were announced during the 2020 and 2021 financial years, when the Covid-19 pandemic was at its peak, were not significantly different from zero. Therefore, although the dividend increases still resulted in some CARs, such CARs were not statistically different from zero to confirm the signalling hypothesis. A p-value of 0.9830 from parametric t-tests and a p-value of 0.8971 from the Wilcoxon signed-rank test were used as a gauge that led to the conclusion that Covid-19 plays a disruptive effect on the signalling process of dividend increases.

Keywords: cumulative abnormal returns, dividend increases, event study methodology, signalling

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Authors: Vashti Carissa

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The main objective of this study is to examine whether the life-cycle theory of dividends could explain the determinant of an optimal dividend policy in Indonesia. The sample that was used consists of 1,420 non-financial and non-trade, services, investment firms listed in Indonesian Stock Exchange during the period of 2005-2014. According to this finding using logistic regression, firm life-cycle measured by retained earnings as a proportion of total equity (RETE) significantly has a positive effect on the propensity of a firm pays dividend. The higher company’s earned surplus portion in its capital structure could reflect firm maturity level which will increase the likelihood of dividend payment in mature firms. This result provides an additional empirical evidence about the existence of life-cycle theory of dividends for dividend payout phenomenon in Indonesia. It can be known that dividends tend to be paid by mature firms while retention is more dominating in growth firms. From the testing results, it can also be known that majority of sample firms are being in the growth phase which proves the fact about infrequent dividend distribution in Indonesia during the ten years observation period.

Keywords: dividend, dividend policy, life-cycle theory of dividends, mix of earned and contributed capital

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Authors: Oliver Ikechukwu Inyiama, Boniface Uche Ugwuanyi

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The aim of the research is to evaluate the key financial performance indicators that help both managers and their shareholders of Nigerian Banks to determine the appropriate dividend payout to their ordinary shareholders in an accounting year. Profitability, total asset, and earnings of commercial banks were selected as key performance indicators in Nigeria Banking Sector. They represent the independent variables of the study while dividend per share is the proxy for the dividend paid on ordinary shares which represent the dependent variable. The effect of profitability, total asset and earnings on dividend per share were evaluated through the ordinary least square method of multiple regression analysis. Test for normality of frequency distribution was conducted through descriptive statistics such as Jacque Bera Statistic, skewness and kurtosis. Rate of dividend payout was subsequently applied as an alternate dependent variable to test for robustness of the earlier results. The 64% adjusted R-squared of the pooled data indicates that profitability, total asset, and earnings explain the variation in dividend per share during the period under research while the remaining 36% variation in dividend per share could be explained by changes in other variables not captured by this study as well as the error term. The study concentrated on four leading Nigeria Commercial Banks namely; First Bank of Nigeria Plc, GTBank Plc, United Bank for Africa Plc and Zenith International Bank Plc. Dividend per share was found to be positively affected by total assets and earnings of the commercial banks. However, profitability which was proxied by profit after tax had a negative effect on dividend per share. The implication of the findings is that commercial banks in Nigeria pay more dividend when they are having a dwindling fortune in order to retain the confidence of the shareholders provided their gross earnings and size is on the increase. Therefore, the management and board of directors of Nigeria commercial banks should apply decent marketing strategies to enhance earnings through investment in profitable ventures for an improved dividend payout rate.

Keywords: assets, banks, indicators, performance, profitability, shares

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Authors: Pratap Chandra Pati, Prabina Rajib, Parama Barai

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The traditional finance theory neglects the role of sentiment factor in asset pricing. However, the behavioral approach to asset-pricing based on noise trader model and limit to arbitrage includes investor sentiment as a priced risk factor in the assist pricing model. Investor sentiment affects stock more that are vulnerable to speculation, hard to value and risky to arbitrage. It includes small stocks, high volatility stocks, growth stocks, distressed stocks, young stocks and non-dividend-paying stocks. Since the introduction of Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) volatility index (VIX) in 1993, it is used as a measure of future volatility in the stock market and also as a measure of investor sentiment. CBOE VIX index, in particular, is often referred to as the ‘investors’ fear gauge’ by public media and prior literature. The upward spikes in the volatility index are associated with bouts of market turmoil and uncertainty. High levels of the volatility index indicate fear, anxiety and pessimistic expectations of investors about the stock market. On the contrary, low levels of the volatility index reflect confident and optimistic attitude of investors. Based on the above discussions, we investigate whether market-wide fear levels measured volatility index is priced factor in the standard asset pricing model for the Indian stock market. First, we investigate the performance and validity of Fama and French three-factor model and Carhart four-factor model in the Indian stock market. Second, we explore whether India volatility index as a proxy for fearful market-based sentiment indicators affect the cross section of stock returns after controlling for well-established risk factors such as market excess return, size, book-to-market, and momentum. Asset pricing tests are performed using monthly data on CNX 500 index constituent stocks listed on the National stock exchange of India Limited (NSE) over the sample period that extends from January 2008 to March 2017. To examine whether India volatility index, as an indicator of fear sentiment, is a priced risk factor, changes in India VIX is included as an explanatory variable in the Fama-French three-factor model as well as Carhart four-factor model. For the empirical testing, we use three different sets of test portfolios used as the dependent variable in the in asset pricing regressions. The first portfolio set is the 4x4 sorts on the size and B/M ratio. The second portfolio set is the 4x4 sort on the size and sensitivity beta of change in IVIX. The third portfolio set is the 2x3x2 independent triple-sorting on size, B/M and sensitivity beta of change in IVIX. We find evidence that size, value and momentum factors continue to exist in Indian stock market. However, VIX index does not constitute a priced risk factor in the cross-section of returns. The inseparability of volatility and jump risk in the VIX is a possible explanation of the current findings in the study.

Keywords: India VIX, Fama-French model, Carhart four-factor model, asset pricing

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Authors: Chih-Hsiang Chang, Fang-Jyun Su

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This paper explores whether stock characteristics influence the herding formation among investors in the US equity market. To extend the research scope of the existing literature, this paper further examines the role that stock risk characteristics play in the US equity market, and the way they influence investors’ decision-making. First, empirical results show that whether general stocks or high-risk stocks, there are no herding behaviors among the investors in the US equity market during the whole research period or during four great events. Moreover, stock characteristics have great influence on investors’ trading decisions. Finally, there is a bidirectional lead-lag relationship of the herding formation between high-risk stocks and low-risk stocks, but the influence of high-risk stocks on the low-risk stocks is stronger than that of low-risk stocks on the high-risk stocks.

Keywords: stock characteristics, herding formation, investment decision, US equity market, lead-lag relationship

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Authors: George Hadjinicola, Andreas Soteriou

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This paper examines the relationship between the number of price promotions that a firm should conduct per year and the level of safety stocks that the firm should maintain. Price promotions result in temporary sales increases, which affect the operations function through (1) an increase in the quantities demanded and (2) an increase in safety stocks required to maintain the desired service level. We propose a modeling framework where both price promotions and improved service levels, operationalized through higher safety stocks, can affect sales. We treat the annual number of promotions as a decision variable. We identify market conditions where the operations function, through improved safety stocks, can complement price promotions or even play the leading role in sales increases.

Keywords: price promotions, safety stocks, marketing/operations interface, mathematical model

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Authors: Tahar Tayachi, Ahlam Alrehaili

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Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to investigate the relationship between the corporate board characteristics and the dividend policy among firms on the Saudi Stock Exchange. Design/Methodology/Approach: This paper uses a sample of 103 nonfinancial firms over a time period of 4 years from 2015 to 2018. To investigate how corporate governance mechanisms such as board independence, the board size, frequency of meetings, and free cash flow impact dividends, the study uses Logit and Tobit models. Findings: This paper finds that board size, board independence, and frequency of board meetings have no influence on a firm’s decision to pay dividends, while board size has a significantly positive impact on the levels of cash dividends paid to investors. This study also finds that the level of free cash flows has a positively significant influence on both the decision to pay dividends and the magnitude of dividend payouts. Research Limitations/Implications: This paper attempts to study the effectiveness of dividend policy among some firms on the Saudi Stock Exchange. Practical Implications: The findings reveal that board characteristics, which represent one of the crucial mechanisms of corporate governance, were found to be complementary to corporate laws and regulations imposed on the Saudi market in 2015. The findings also imply that capital market authorities should revise their corporate regulations and ensure that protection laws are adequate and strong enough to protect the interests of all shareholders. Originality/Value: This paper is among the few studies focusing on dividend policy in Saudi Arabia. Finally, these findings suggest that the improvements in corporate laws in Saudi Arabia led to such an outcome, and it has become prevalent in dividend policy decisions and behaviors of Saudi firms.

Keywords: agency theory, Tobit, corporate governance, dividend payout, Logit

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Authors: Zahra Hatami, Hesham Ali, David Volkman

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Selecting a portfolio for investing is a crucial decision for individuals and legal entities. In the last two decades, with economic globalization, a stream of financial innovations has rushed to the aid of financial institutions. The importance of selecting stocks for the portfolio is always a challenging task for investors. This study aims to create a financial network to identify optimal portfolios using network centralities metrics. This research presents a community detection technique of superior stocks that can be described as an optimal stock portfolio to be used by investors. By using the advantages of a network and its property in extracted communities, a group of stocks was selected for each of the various time periods. The performance of the optimal portfolios compared to the famous index. Their Sharpe ratio was calculated in a timely manner to evaluate their profit for making decisions. The analysis shows that the selected potential portfolio from stocks with low centrality measurement can outperform the market; however, they have a lower Sharpe ratio than stocks with high centrality scores. In other words, stocks with low centralities could outperform the S&P500 yet have a lower Sharpe ratio than high central stocks.

Keywords: portfolio management performance, network analysis, centrality measurements, Sharpe ratio

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Authors: Hina Munir Abbasi

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The current paper examines the relationship and diversification ability of Islamic stock indices /conventional stocks indices and Real Estate Investment Trust (REITs).To represent conditional dependency between stocks and REITs in a more realistic way, new modeling technique, time-varying copula with switching dependence is used. It represents reliance structure more accurately and realistically than a single copula regime as dependence may alter between positive and negative correlation regimes with time. The fluctuating behavior of markets has significant impact on economic variables; especially the downward trend during crisis. Overall addition of Real Estate Investment Trust in stocks portfolio reduces risks and provide better diversification benefit. Results varied depending upon the circumstances of the country. REITs provides better diversification benefits for Islamic Stocks, when both markets are bearish and can provide hedging benefit for conventional stocks portfolio.

Keywords: conventional stocks, real estate investment trust, copula, diversification, risk spillover, safe heaven

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Authors: Vish Putcha, Chandrasekhar Putcha, Siva Hari

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In the current digital era of free trading and pandemic-driven remote work culture, markets worldwide gained momentum for retail investors to trade from anywhere easily. The number of retail traders rose to 24% of the market from 15% at the pre-pandemic level. Most of them are young retail traders with high-risk tolerance compared to the previous generation of retail traders. This trend boosted the growth of subscription-based market predictors and market data vendors. Young traders are betting on these predictors, assuming one of them is correct. However, 90% of retail traders are on the losing end. This paper presents multiple indicators and attempts to derive behavioral patterns from the underlying stocks. The two major indicators that traders and investors follow are technical and fundamental. The famous investor, Warren Buffett, adheres to the “Value Investing” method that is based on a stock’s fundamental Analysis. In this paper, we present multiple indicators from various methods to understand the behavior patterns of stocks. For this research, we picked five stocks with a market capitalization of more than $200M, listed on the exchange for more than 20 years, and from different industry sectors. To study the behavioral pattern over time for these five stocks, a total of 8 indicators are chosen from fundamental, technical, and financial indicators, such as Price to Earning (P/E), Price to Book Value (P/B), Debt to Equity (D/E), Beta, Volatility, Relative Strength Index (RSI), Moving Averages and Dividend yields, followed by detailed mathematical Analysis. This is an interdisciplinary paper between various disciplines of Engineering, Accounting, and Finance. The research takes a new approach to identify clear indicators affecting stocks. Statistical Analysis of the data will be performed in terms of the probabilistic distribution, then follow and then determine the probability of the stock price going over a specific target value. The Chi-square test will be used to determine the validity of the assumed distribution. Preliminary results indicate that this approach is working well. When the complete results are presented in the final paper, they will be beneficial to the community.

Keywords: stock pattern, stock market analysis, stock predictions, trading, investing, fundamental analysis, technical analysis, quantitative trading, financial analysis, behavioral analysis

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Authors: Ross Guest, Bjarne Jensen

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This paper analyses a potentially new consumption dividend from lower fertility arising from imperfect labour substitution by age. A smaller proportion of young workers relative to older workers raises relative youth wages given imperfect labour substitution by age. Discounted lifetime labour income rises which provides a consumption dividend. Simulation results are reported for the four Scandinavian countries, adopting a simple overlapping generations model. Imperfect labour substitution is modelled using a CRESH functional form of an aggregate labour index. The magnitudes of this new consumption dividend from a Low fertility projection compared with a high fertility projection are found to be approximately 4 percent annually, on average over the Scandinavian countries in the very long run, but somewhat lower in the short term. There is some sensitivity to the interest rate and the degree of consumption smoothing.

Keywords: fertility, consumption, productivity, labour substitution

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Authors: Zahid Ahmad, Samia Yousaf

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The main purpose of this study is to evaluate and assess the financial position, operating performance, and recent outlook of the companies. This study investigates the impact of capital structure, dividend policy and sustainability on the value of firms of textile spinning sector of Pakistan which is listed on Pakistan stock exchange. The panel data technique has been applied to this group of textile sector which is textile spinning. This study covers the last ten years of time period. All the data related to the variables have been collected from the annual reports and financial statements of the textile sector firms. There are differently related determinants to measure the capital structure which are fixed assets turnover ratio, debt ratio, equity ratio, debt to equity ratio, assets tangibility, and shareholder’s equity. Dividend policy is being measured by two determinants which are earning per share (EPS) and dividend payout ratio. Sustainability is being measured by three suitable factors which are sales growth, gross profit margin ratio and firm size. These are three independent variables and their determinants of this study. Value of firm is measured through the return on asset (ROA). Capital structure is at the top of the list among all the three variables. According to the results of this research work, somewhere all the three variables generates positive and significant effect on the firm’s performance and its growth.

Keywords: capital structure, dividend policy, panel data, sustainability

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Authors: Arjun K., Arumugam Sankaran, Sanjay Kumar, Mousumi Das

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The paper analyses the existence of endogenous growth scenario emanating from the demographic dividend in India during the liberalization period starting from 1980. Demographic dividend creates a fertile ground for the cultivation of human and knowledge capitals contributing to technological progress which can be measured using total factor productivity. The relationship among total factor productivity, human and knowledge capitals are examined in an open endogenous framework for the period 1980-2016. The control variables such as foreign direct investment, trade openness, energy consumption are also employed. The data are sourced from Reserve Bank of India, World Bank, International Energy Agency and The National Science and Technology Management Information System. To understand the dynamic association among variables, ARDL bounds approach to cointegration followed by Toda-Yamamoto causality test are used. The results reveal a short run and long run relationship among the variables supported by the existence of causality. This calls for an integrated policy to build and augment human capital and research and development activities to sustain and pace up growth and development in the nation.

Keywords: demographic dividend, young population, open endogenous growth models, human and knowledge capital

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Authors: Tanapond S.

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Typically, most of the controlling firms are relate to family firms which are widespread and important for economic growth particularly in Asian Pacific region. The unique characteristics of the controlling families tend to play an important role in determining the corporate policies such as dividend policy. Given the complexity of the family business phenomenon, the empirical evidence has been unclear on how the families behind business groups influence dividend policy in Asian markets with the prevalent existence of cross-shareholdings and pyramidal structure. Dividend policy as one of an important determinant of firm value could also be implemented in order to examine the effect of the controlling families behind business groups on strategic decisions-making in terms of a governance perspective and agency problems. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the impact of ownership structure and concentration which are influential internal corporate governance mechanisms in family firms on dividend decision-making. Using panel data and constructing a unique dataset of family ownership and control through hand-collecting information from the nonfinancial companies listed in Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) between 2000 and 2015, the study finds that family firms with large stakes distribute higher dividends than family firms with small stakes. Family ownership can mitigate the agency problems and the expropriation of minority investors in family firms. To provide insight into the distinguish between ownership rights and control rights, this study examines specific firm characteristics including the degrees of concentration of controlling shareholders by classifying family ownership in different categories. The results show that controlling families with large deviation between voting rights and cash flow rights have more power and affect lower dividend payment. These situations become worse when second blockholders are families. To the best knowledge of the researcher, this study is the first to examine the association between family firms’ characteristics and dividend policy from the corporate governance perspectives in Thailand with weak investor protection environment and high ownership concentration. This research also underscores the importance of family control especially in a context in which family business groups and pyramidal structure are prevalent. As a result, academics and policy makers can develop markets and corporate policies to eliminate agency problem.

Keywords: agency theory, dividend policy, family control, Thailand

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Authors: Changju Lee, Seungmo Ku, Sondo Kim, Woojin Chang

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How to detecting financial bubble? Addressing this simple question has been the focus of a vast amount of empirical research spanning almost half a century. However, financial bubble is hard to observe and varying over the time; there needs to be more research on this area. In this paper, we used abnormal difference between common stocks price and those preferred stocks price to explain financial bubble. First, we proposed the ‘W-index’ which indicates spread between common stocks and those preferred stocks in stock market. Second, to prove that this ‘W-index’ is valid for measuring financial bubble, we showed that there is an inverse relationship between this ‘W-index’ and S&P500 rate of return. Specifically, our hypothesis is that when ‘W-index’ is comparably higher than other periods, financial bubbles are added up in stock market and vice versa; according to our hypothesis, if investors made long term investments when ‘W-index’ is high, they would have negative rate of return; however, if investors made long term investments when ‘W-index’ is low, they would have positive rate of return. By comparing correlation values and adjusted R-squared values of between W-index and S&P500 return, VIX index and S&P500 return, and TED index and S&P500 return, we showed only W-index has significant relationship between S&P500 rate of return. In addition, we figured out how long investors should hold their investment position regard the effect of financial bubble. Using this W-index, investors could measure financial bubble in the market and invest with low risk.

Keywords: financial bubble detection, future return, forecasting, pairs trading, preferred stocks

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Authors: Mussa Hussaini, Supasith Chonglerttham

Abstract:

Stocks are usually classified according to their characteristics which are unique enough such that the performance of each category can be differentiated from another. The reasons behind such classifications in the financial market are sometimes financial innovation or it can also be because of finding a premium in a group of stocks with similar features. One of the major classifications in stocks market is called momentum strategy. Based on this strategy stocks are classified according to their past performances into past winners and past losers. Momentum in a stock market refers to the idea that stocks will keep moving in the same direction. In other word, stocks with rising prices (past winners stocks) will continue to rise and those stocks with falling prices (past losers stocks) will continue to fall. The performance of this classification has been well documented in numerous studies in different countries. These studies suggest that past winners tend to outperform past losers in the future. However, academic research in this direction has been limited in countries such as Thailand and to the best of our knowledge, there has been no such study in Thailand after the financial crisis of 1997. The significance of this study stems from the fact that Thailand is an open market and has been encouraging foreign investments as one of the means to enhance employment, promote economic development, and technology transfer and the main equity market in Thailand, the Stock Exchange of Thailand is a crucial channel for Foreign Investment inflow into the country. The equity market size in Thailand increased from $1.72 billion in 1984 to $133.66 billion in 1993, an increase of over 77 times within a decade. The main contribution of this paper is evidence for size category in the context of the equity market in Thailand. Almost all previous studies have focused solely on large stocks or indices. This paper extends the scope beyond large stocks and indices by including small and tiny stocks as well. Further, since there is a distinct absence of detailed academic research on momentum strategy in the Stock Exchange of Thailand after the crisis, this paper also contributes to the extension of existing literature of the study. This research is also of significance for those researchers who would like to compare the performance of this strategy in different countries and markets. In the Stock Exchange of Thailand, we examined the performance of momentum strategy from 2010 to 2014. Returns on portfolios are calculated on monthly basis. Our results on momentum strategy confirm that there is positive momentum profit in large size stocks whereas there is negative momentum profit in small size stocks during the period of 2010 to 2014. Furthermore, the equal weighted average of momentum profit of both small and large size category do not provide any indication of overall momentum profit.

Keywords: momentum strategy, past loser, past winner, stock exchange of Thailand

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Authors: Yousef Abu Nahleh, Alhasan Hakami, Arun Kumar, Fugen Daver

Abstract:

This study considers the problem of calculating safety stocks in disaster situations inventory systems that face demand uncertainties. Safety stocks are essential to make the supply chain, which is controlled by forecasts of customer needs, in response to demand uncertainties and to reach predefined goal service levels. To solve the problem of uncertainties due to the disaster situations affecting the industry sector, the concept of Emergency Safety Stock (ESS) was proposed. While there exists a huge body of literature on determining safety stock levels, this literature does not address the problem arising due to the disaster and dealing with the situations. In this paper, the problem of improving the Order Quantity Model to deal with uncertainty of demand due to disasters is managed by incorporating a new idea called ESS which is based on the probability of disaster occurrence and uses probability matrix calculated from the historical data.

Keywords: Emergency Safety Stocks, safety stocks, Order Quantity Model, supply chain

Procedia PDF Downloads 347

Authors: Yunqi Wang

Abstract:

Benefiting from the demographic dividend, China has enjoyed export-led economic growth since 1978. While Lewis's model marks the structural transformation from the low-wage 'subsistence' sector to the 'modern sector' as the end of labour surplus, the Chinese government seems eager to extend such benefit by promoting a series of fertility encouragement policies, contrasting to its firm and strict birth control since last century. Based on a Attride-Stirling’s thematic analysis of interviews with unmarried female millennials in China, this paper argues that the young female generation responded to current fertility policies negatively, where the policy ineffectiveness and irresponsiveness have further worsened their marriage and childbirth reluctance. Instead of focusing on changes in wage level, this research contributes a qualitative perspective to the existing theoretical debate on the Lewis turning point, implying an inevitable end of demographic dividend in China. Highlighting the greater focus on female consciousness among the younger generation, it also suggests a policy orientation towards resolving outdated social norms to accommodate the rising female consciousness since millennials will become the childbirth mainstay in forthcoming years.

Keywords: lewis model, fertility policy, demographic dividend, one-child policy

Procedia PDF Downloads 119

Authors: Faustina Masocha, Vusani Moyo

Abstract:

For decades, dividend announcements have been presumed to contain important signals about the future prospects of companies. Similarly, the same has been presumed about management earnings announcements. Despite both dividend and earnings announcements being considered informative, a number of researchers questioned their credibility and found both to contain short-term signals. Pertaining to dividend announcements, some authors argued that although they might contain important information that can result in changes in share prices, which consequently results in the accumulation of abnormal returns, their degree of informativeness is less compared to other signaling tools such as earnings announcements. Yet, this claim in favor has been refuted by other researchers who found the effect of earnings to be transitory and of little value to shareholders as indicated by the little abnormal returns earned during the period surrounding earnings announcements. Considering the above, it is apparent that both dividends and earnings have been hypothesized to have a signaling impact. This prompts one to question which between these two signaling tools is more informative. To answer this question, two follow-up questions were asked. The first question sought to determine the event which results in the most effect on share prices, while the second question focused on the event that influenced trading volume the most. To answer the first question and evaluate the effect that each of these events had on share prices, an event study methodology was employed on a sample made up of the top 10 JSE-listed companies for data collected from 2012 to 2019 to determine if shareholders gained abnormal returns (ARs) during announcement dates. The event that resulted in the most persistent and highest amount of ARs was considered to be more informative. Looking at the second follow-up question, an investigation was conducted to determine if either dividends or earnings announcements influenced trading patterns, resulting in abnormal trading volumes (ATV) around announcement time. The event that resulted in the most ATV was considered more informative. Using an estimation period of 20 days and an event window of 21 days, and hypothesis testing, it was found that announcements pertaining to the increase of earnings resulted in the most ARs, Cumulative Abnormal Returns (CARs) and had a lasting effect in comparison to dividend announcements whose effect lasted until day +3. This solidifies some empirical arguments that the signaling effect of dividends has become diminishing. It was also found that when reported earnings declined in comparison to the previous period, there was an increase in trading volume, resulting in ATV. Although dividend announcements did result in abnormal returns, they were lesser than those acquired during earnings announcements which refutes a number of theoretical and empirical arguments that found dividends to be more informative than earnings announcements.

Keywords: dividend signaling, event study methodology, information content of earnings, signaling theory

Procedia PDF Downloads 172