Predicting Supply Delivery Delays Using Advanced Analytical Approaches

Authors: Mohammad Alshehri, Fahd Alfarsi

Abstract:

Efficient supply chains play an essential role in delivering humanitarian supplies and directly impact the success of public aid initiatives globally. Predicting the delivery status of these essential supplies in a timely manner is crucial. Therefore, this study investigates the application of various machine learning (ML) approaches to predict whether humanitarian deliveries will be made on time, using a comprehensive case-study dataset provided by one of the largest international supplying organizations. We employed several ML methods, namely Logistics Regression, Support Vector Machine (SVM), K-Nearest Neighbor (KNN), and Navie Bays, to assess the proposed predictive model. The outcome of the analysis showed promising results, with weighted Recall (WRec.) / Accuracy (Acc.) scores ranging from 0.77 to 0.86 using the 4 algorithms mentioned earlier. These high-performance levels indicate the robustness of Machine Learning (ML) techniques in forecasting delivery status, potentially enabling more proactive and efficient supply chain management in global aid initiatives. The implications of this study suggest that integrating advanced predictive analytics in supply chain management can significantly enhance the delivery performance of critical commodities to those in need.

Keywords: humanitarian aids, supply chains, artificial intelligence, delivery status