On Some Signs of a Recurrent Climate Scenario Advent

Authors: Vladimir I. Byshev, Victor G. Neiman, Yuri A. Romanov, Ilya V. Serykh

Abstract:

Since atmosphere pressure field is an actual envoy of climatic signal the atmospheric Highs and Lows should be attributed to the key active focal points within the ocean-atmosphere interplay system. Here we were set a task to determine how the dynamics of those centres of action relates to the climate change both on regional and global scales. For this target the near-surface temperature and atmospheric pressure differences between the Icelandic Low and the Azores High were considered. The secular term of phase states of the system under consideration was found divided into three nonintersecting subsets. Each of that was put in consequence with one of three climatic scenarios related to the periods of 1905-1935 (relatively warm phase), 1940-1970 (cold phase) and 1980-2000 (warm phase).

Keywords: Climate change, climatic scenario, fields of environmental characteristics, North Atlantic region.

Digital Object Identifier (DOI): doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.1078366

References:

[1] Akasofu, S.-I. 2010. On the recovery from the Little Ice Age. Natural Science, 2(11), 1211-1224. doi: 10.4236/ns.2010.210149.
[2] Allan, R. J. and Ansell, T. J. 2006. A new globally-complete monthly historical gridded mean sea level pressure data set (HadSLP2): 1850- 2004. Journal of Climate, 19, 5816-5842.
[3] Brohan, P., Kennedy, J. J., Harris, I., Tett, S. F. B., and Jones, P. D. 2006. Uncertainty estimates in regional and global observed temperature changes: a new dataset from 1850. J. Geophys. Res, 111(D12)106, doi:10.1029/2005JD006548.
[4] Bronnemann, S., Stickler, A., Griesser, T., Fischer, A.M. Grant, A., Ewen, T., Zhou, T., Schraner, M., Rozanov, E., Peter, T. 2009. Variability of large-scale atmospheric circulation indices for the Northern Hemisphere during the past 100 years. Meteorologische Zeitschrift. 18 (4), 379-396.
[5] Byshev, V. I. 2003. Synoptic and Large-Scale Variability of Ocean and Atmosphere. Nauka, Moscow
[in Russian]. 344 pp.
[6] Byshev, V. I., Neiman, V. G. and Romanov, Yu. A. 2006. On Pronounced Discrepancies of Surface Air Temperature Large-Scale Variation on Continents and over Oceans. Okeanologiya, 46(2). 165- 177.
[7] Byshev, V. I., Neiman, V. G., Romanov, Yu. A. and Serykh, I. V. 2009. On the spatial nonuniformity of some parameters of the recent climate global variations. Doklady Earth Sciences, 426. 705-709.
[8] Gill, A. E. 1982. Atmosphere-Ocean Dynamics. Academic Press. London. England, Cambridge (Mir, Moscow, 1986.2. 415 p).
[9] IPCC. 2007. Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of WGI to the Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC. Ed. by S. Solomon, D. Qin, and M. Manning, et al. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge and New-York. 996.
[10] Knight, J. R. 2005. A signature of persistent natural thermohaline circulation cycles in observed climate. Geophys. Res. Lett. 32, L20708. doi:10.1029/2005GL024233.
[11] Kouraev, A.V., Gretaux, G.-F., Lebedev, S.A., Kostianoy, A.G. Ginzburg, A.I., Sheremet, N.A., Mamedov, R., Zakharova, E.A., Roblou, L., Lyard, F., Calmant, S., Berge-Nguyen, M. 2011. Satellite Altimetry applications in the Caspian Sea. In: Coastal Altimetry. (eds. Vignudelli, S., Kostianoy, A. G., Cipollini, P., Benveniste, J. Springer- Verlag). Berlin. Heidelberg. 331-366. doi:101007-978-3-642-12796- 013.
[12] Lebedev, S. A. and Kostianoy, A. G. 2008. Integrated using of Satellite Altimetry in Investigation of meteorological, hydrological and hydrodynamic regime of the Caspian Sea. Journal of terrestrial atmospheric and oceanic Sciences. 19(1-2), 71-82
[13] Panin, G. N. 2009. On Climate Changes in Polar zones of the Earth in the twentieth and twenty first centuries. Doklady Earth Sciences. 427(2). 988-992.
[14] Tsonis, A.A., Swanson, K., Kravtsov, S. 2007. A new dynamical mechanism for major climate shifts. Geophys. Res. Lett. 34. L13705. doi:10.1029/2007GL030288,2007.
[15] Vakulenko, N.V., Monin, A.S., Shishkov, Yu. A. 2000. General Atmospheric Circulation Variations in the XXth Century. Doklady Earth Sciences. 371A(3). 579-584.
[16] Wang, G., Swanson, K.L., Tsonis, A.A. 2009. The Pacemaker of major Climate Shifts. Geophys. Res. Lett. 36. L07708. doi:10.1029/2008GL036874,2009.