Levels and Trends of Under-Five Mortality in South Africa from 1998 to 2012

Authors: T. Motsima, K. Zuma, E Rapoo

Abstract:

Childhood mortality is a key sign of the coverage of child survival interventions, social and economic progressions. Although the level of under-five mortality has been declining, it is still unacceptably high. The primary aim of this paper is to establish and analyse the levels and trends of under-five mortality for the periods 1998, 2003 and 2012 in South Africa. Methods: The data used for analysis came from the 1998 SADHS, the 2003 SADHS and the 2012 SABSSM which collected information on the survival status of children. The Kaplan-Meier estimate of the survival function method was used to determine the probabilities of failure (death) from birth up to 59 months. Results and Conclusion: The overall U5MR declined by 28.2% from 53.1 in 1998 to 38.1 in 2012. The U5MR of male children declined from 59.2 in 1998 to 46.2 in 2003 and dropped further to 41.4 in 2012. The U5MR of children of mothers aged 40 years and older increased from 64.0 in 1998 to 89.0 in 2003 and rose further to 129.9 in 2012. The U5MR of children of mothers with education level of 12 years or more increased from 32.2 in 1998 to 35.2 in 2003 and declined substantially to 17.5 in 2012.

Keywords: Demographic and health survey, Kaplan-Meier, levels and trends, under-five mortality.

Digital Object Identifier (DOI): doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.6008601

References:

[1] United Nations Children’s Fund, World Health Organization, and United Nations, “Levels & trends in child mortality: Report 2014,” 2015.
[2] United Nations, “United Nations Millenium Declarations. Resolution adopted by the General Assembly,” item 19 (bullet number3). A/55/L.2, 2000.
[3] United Nations Children’s Fund, World Health Organization, and United Nations, “Levels & trends in child mortality: Report 2015,” 2015.
[4] T. Motsima, K. Zuma, and E. Rapoo, “An investigation of trends and determinants of childhood mortality in South Africa from 1998 to 2012,” unpublished, 2019.
[5] N. Nannan, R. Dorrington, R. Laubscher, R. Zinyakatira, N. Prinsloo, M. Darikwa, R. Matzopoulos, and D. Bradshaw, “Under-five mortality statistics in South Africa: Shedding some light on the trend and causes 1997 – 2007,” Cape Town, South African Medical Research Council, 2012.
[6] G.A. Oni, and G.W. Adetoro, “Changing levels and patterns of under-five mortality in Nigeria: Empirical evidence from Nigeria Demographic and Health Surveys”, 2015.
[7] J. Kembo, and J.K. Van Ginneken, J.K, “Levels and trends in under-five mortality in Zimbabwe: findings from an analysis of recent Demographic and Health Surveys,” Genus., vol. 67, no. 1, pp. 61-74, 2011.
[8] Department of Health, “South African Demographic and Health Survey 1998: Full report”, 2002.
[9] Department of Health, “South African Demographic and Health Survey Report. Pretoria: Department of Health,” 2004.
[10] Human Science Research Council, “South African National HIV Prevalence, Incidence and Behaviour Survey, 2012,” 2014.
[11] Human Science Research Council, “Fact Sheet 1: South African National HIV, Behaviour and Health Survey 2012,” 2012.
[12] S.O. Rutstein, and G. Rojas, “Guide to DHS Statistics,” 2003.
[13] J. Kembo, and J.K. Van Ginneken, J.K, “Determinants of infant and child mortality in Zimbabwe: Results of multivariate hazard analysis,” Demographic Research., vol. 21, no. 13, pp. 367-384, 2009..
[14] K. Hill, “Tools for Demographic Estimation: Indirect estimation of child mortality,” January, 2013.
[15] M. Cleves, W. Gould, R.R. Gutierrez, and Y.V. Marchenko, An introduction to survival analysis using Stata. Texas: Stata Press, 2010.
[16] G. Rodríguez, “Survival models: Chapter 7”, Princeton University, 2010.
[17] A.R. Cook, “ST3242: Introduction to survival analysis”. National University of Singapore, 2009.
[18] M. Cleves, W. Gould, and R.R. Gutierrez, An introduction to survival analysis using Stata. Texas: Stata Press, 2003.
[19] J.S. Ndawala, “Infant and child mortality”. National Statistic Office (Malawi), ORC Macro eds, Malawi Demographic and Health Survey, 97-104, 2000.
[20] R. Hong, and D. Hor, “Factors associated with the decline of under-five mortality in Cambodia, 2000-2010: Further analysis of the Cambodia demographic and health surveys,” 2013.
[21] Department of Health, “National Antiretroviral Treatment Guidelines,” 2004.
[22] Statistics South Africa, “Census 2011: Fact sheet,” 2013.
[23] G.L. Drevenstedt, E.M. Crimmins, S. Vasunilashorn, and C.E. Finch, “The rise and fall of excess male infant mortality,” 2008.
[24] O.A. Uthman, M.B. Uthman, and I. Yahaya, “A population based study effect of multiple birth on infant mortality in Nigeria,” 2008.
[25] J.M. Sullivan, S.O. Rutstein, and G.T. Bicego, “Infant anf child mortality: DHS comparative studies No. 15,” 1994.
[26] T. Ayotunde, O. Mary, A.O. Melvin and F.F Faniyi, “Maternal age and under-5 mortality in Nigeria,” East African Journal of Public Health., vol. 6, no. 1. 2009.
[27] South Africa, “Every Woman Every Child, pledge of support to the global strategy for women’s, children’s, and adolescents’ health: Republic of South Africa,” 2015.
[28] United Nations, “Resolution adopted the General Assembly on 25 September 2015. Transforming our world: the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development,” 2015.