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Vaccinated Susceptible Infected and Recovered (VSIR) Mathematical Model to Study the Effect of Bacillus Calmette-Guerin (BCG) Vaccine and the Disease Stability Analysis

Authors: Muhammad Shahid, Nasir-uddin Khan, Mushtaq Hussain, Muhammad Liaquat Ali, Asif Mansoor


Tuberculosis (TB) remains a leading cause of infectious mortality. It is primarily transmitted by the respiratory route, individuals with active disease may infect others through airborne particles which releases when they cough, talk, or sing and subsequently inhale by others. In order to study the effect of the Bacilli Calmette-Guerin (BCG) vaccine after vaccination of TB patient, a Vaccinated Susceptible Infected and Recovered (VSIR) mathematical model is being developed to achieve the desired objectives. The mathematical model, so developed, shall be used to quantify the effect of BCG Vaccine to protect the immigrant young adult person. Moreover, equations are to be established for the disease endemic and free equilibrium states and subsequently utilized in disease stability analysis. The stability analysis will give a complete picture of disease annihilation from the total population if the total removal rate from the infectious group should be greater than total number of dormant infections produced throughout infectious period.

Keywords: Bacillus Calmette-Guerin vaccine, disease-free equilibrium state, VSIR Quantification, disease stability analysis.

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