Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 40

Uncertainty Related Publications

40 Uncertainty of the Brazilian Earth System Model for Solar Radiation

Authors: Elison Eduardo Jardim Bierhals, Claudineia Brazil, Deivid Pires, Rafael Haag, Elton Gimenez Rossini

Abstract:

This study evaluated the uncertainties involved in the solar radiation projections generated by the Brazilian Earth System Model (BESM) of the Weather and Climate Prediction Center (CPTEC) belonging to Coupled Model Intercomparison Phase 5 (CMIP5), with the aim of identifying efficiency in the projections for solar radiation of said model and in this way establish the viability of its use. Two different scenarios elaborated by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) were evaluated: RCP 4.5 (with more optimistic contour conditions) and 8.5 (with more pessimistic initial conditions). The method used to verify the accuracy of the present model was the Nash coefficient and the Statistical bias, as it better represents these atmospheric patterns. The BESM showed a tendency to overestimate the data ​​of solar radiation projections in most regions of the state of Rio Grande do Sul and through the validation methods adopted by this study, BESM did not present a satisfactory accuracy.

Keywords: Uncertainty, Climate Changes, Solar Radiation, projections

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39 Managing Uncertainty in Unmanned Aircraft System Safety Performance Requirements Compliance Process

Authors: Achim Washington, Reece Clothier, Jose Silva

Abstract:

System Safety Regulations (SSR) are a central component to the airworthiness certification of Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS). There is significant debate on the setting of appropriate SSR for UAS. Putting this debate aside, the challenge lies in how to apply the system safety process to UAS, which lacks the data and operational heritage of conventionally piloted aircraft. The limited knowledge and lack of operational data result in uncertainty in the system safety assessment of UAS. This uncertainty can lead to incorrect compliance findings and the potential certification and operation of UAS that do not meet minimum safety performance requirements. The existing system safety assessment and compliance processes, as used for conventional piloted aviation, do not adequately account for the uncertainty, limiting the suitability of its application to UAS. This paper discusses the challenges of undertaking system safety assessments for UAS and presents current and envisaged research towards addressing these challenges. It aims to highlight the main advantages associated with adopting a risk based framework to the System Safety Performance Requirement (SSPR) compliance process that is capable of taking the uncertainty associated with each of the outputs of the system safety assessment process into consideration. Based on this study, it is made clear that developing a framework tailored to UAS, would allow for a more rational, transparent and systematic approach to decision making. This would reduce the need for conservative assumptions and take the risk posed by each UAS into consideration while determining its state of compliance to the SSR.

Keywords: Uncertainty, System Safety, unmanned aircraft systems, Part 1309 regulations

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38 Risk and Uncertainty in Aviation: A Thorough Analysis of System Vulnerabilities

Authors: C. V. Pietreanu, S. E. Zaharia, C. Dinu

Abstract:

Hazard assessment and risks quantification are key components for estimating the impact of existing regulations. But since regulatory compliance cannot cover all risks in aviation, the authors point out that by studying causal factors and eliminating uncertainty, an accurate analysis can be outlined. The research debuts by making delimitations on notions, as confusion on the terms over time has reflected in less rigorous analysis. Throughout this paper, it will be emphasized the fact that the variation in human performance and organizational factors represent the biggest threat from an operational perspective. Therefore, advanced risk assessment methods analyzed by the authors aim to understand vulnerabilities of the system given by a nonlinear behavior. Ultimately, the mathematical modeling of existing hazards and risks by eliminating uncertainty implies establishing an optimal solution (i.e. risk minimization).

Keywords: Optimization, Control, Risk management, Human Factor, Uncertainty

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37 Improving Sales through Inventory Reduction: A Retail Chain Case Study

Authors: M. G. Mattos, J. E. Pécora Jr, T. A. Briso

Abstract:

Today's challenging business environment, with unpredictable demand and volatility, requires a supply chain strategy that handles uncertainty and risks in the right way. Even though inventory models have been previously explored, this paper seeks to apply these concepts on a practical situation. This study involves the inventory replenishment problem, applying techniques that are mainly based on mathematical assumptions and modeling. The primary goal is to improve the retailer’s supply chain processes taking store differences when setting the various target stock levels. Through inventory review policy, picking piece implementation and minimum exposure definition, we were able not only to promote the inventory reduction as well as improve sales results. The inventory management theory from literature review was then tested on a single case study regarding a particular department in one of the largest Latam retail chains.

Keywords: Distribution, Risk, Inventory, Uncertainty, retail, sales, safety stock

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36 Seismic Base Shear Force Depending on Building Fundamental Period and Site Conditions: Deterministic Formulation and Probabilistic Analysis

Authors: S. Dorbani, M. Badaoui, D. Benouar

Abstract:

The aim of this paper is to investigate the effect of the building fundamental period of reinforced concrete buildings of (6, 9, and 12-storey), with different floor plans: Symmetric, mono-symmetric, and unsymmetric. These structures are erected at different epicentral distances. Using the Boumerdes, Algeria (2003) earthquake data, we focused primarily on the establishment of the deterministic formulation linking the base shear force to two parameters: The first one is the fundamental period that represents the numerical fingerprint of the structure, and the second one is the epicentral distance used to represent the impact of the earthquake on this force. In a second step, with a view to highlight the effect of uncertainty in these parameters on the analyzed response, these parameters are modeled as random variables with a log-normal distribution. The variability of the coefficients of variation of the chosen uncertain parameters, on the statistics on the seismic base shear force, showed that the effect of uncertainty on fundamental period on this force statistics is low compared to the epicentral distance uncertainty influence.

Keywords: Statistics, Uncertainty, fundamental period, base shear force, epicentral distance, lognormal variable

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35 Probabilistic Simulation of Triaxial Undrained Cyclic Behavior of Soils

Authors: Arezoo Sadrinezhad, Kallol Sett, S. I. Hariharan

Abstract:

In this paper, a probabilistic framework based on Fokker-Planck-Kolmogorov (FPK) approach has been applied to simulate triaxial cyclic constitutive behavior of uncertain soils. The framework builds upon previous work of the writers, and it has been extended for cyclic probabilistic simulation of triaxial undrained behavior of soils. von Mises elastic-perfectly plastic material model is considered. It is shown that by using probabilistic framework, some of the most important aspects of soil behavior under cyclic loading can be captured even with a simple elastic-perfectly plastic constitutive model.

Keywords: Uncertainty, Soils, finite difference method, elasto-plasticity, fourier spectral method, Fokker-Planck equation

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34 Web Application for Evaluating Tests in Distance Learning Systems

Authors: Bogdan Walek, Vladimir Bradac, Radim Farana

Abstract:

Distance learning systems offer useful methods of learning and usually contain a final course test or another form of test. The paper proposes a web application for evaluating tests using an expert system in distance learning systems. The proposed web application is appropriate for didactic tests or tests with results for subsequent studying follow-up courses. The web application works with test questions and uses an expert system and LFLC tool for test evaluation. After test evaluation, the results are visualized and shown to the student.

Keywords: Test, Distance Learning, Uncertainty, Student, Fuzzy, expert system

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33 Theoretical Appraisal of Satisfactory Decisions: Uncertainty, Evolutionary Ideas and Beliefs, and Satisfactory Time Use

Authors: Okay Gunes

Abstract:

Unsatisfactory experiences due to an information shortage regarding the future pay-offs of actual choices, yield satisficing decision-making. This research will examine, for the first time in the literature, the motivation behind suboptimal decisions due to uncertainty by subjecting Adam Smith’s and Jeremy Bentham’s assumptions about the nature of the actions that lead to satisficing behavior, in order to clarify the theoretical background of a “consumption-based satisfactory time” concept. The contribution of this paper with respect to the existing literature is threefold: firstly, it is showed in this paper that Adam Smith’s uncertainty is related to the problem of the constancy of ideas and not related directly to beliefs. Secondly, possessions, as in Jeremy Bentham’s oeuvre, are assumed to be just as pleasing, as protecting and improving the actual or expected quality of life, so long as they reduce any displeasure due to the undesired outcomes of uncertainty. Finally, each consumption decision incurs its own satisfactory time period, owed to not feeling hungry, being healthy, not having transportation…etc. This reveals that the level of satisfaction is indeed a behavioral phenomenon where its value would depend on the simultaneous satisfaction derived from all activities.

Keywords: Uncertainty, Decision-making, idea and belief, satisficing

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32 Mind Your Product-Market Strategy on Selecting Marketing Inputs: An Uncertainty Approach in Indian Context

Authors: Susmita Ghosh, Bhaskar Bhowmick

Abstract:

Market is an important factor for start-ups to look into during decision-making in product development and related areas. Emerging country markets are more uncertain in terms of information availability and institutional supports. The literature review of market uncertainty reveals the need for identifying factors representing the market uncertainty. This paper identifies factors for market uncertainty using Exploratory Factor Analysis (EFA) and confirmed the number of factor retention using an alternative factor retention criterion ‘Parallel Analysis’. 500 entrepreneurs, engaged in start-ups from all over India participated in the study. This paper concludes with the factor structure of ‘market uncertainty’ having dimensions of uncertainty in industry orientation, uncertainty in customer orientation and uncertainty in marketing orientation.

Keywords: Market, Uncertainty, Orientation, Demand, competitor

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31 Application of Intuitionistic Fuzzy Cross Entropy Measure in Decision Making for Medical Diagnosis

Authors: Shikha Maheshwari, Amit Srivastava

Abstract:

In medical investigations, uncertainty is a major challenging problem in making decision for doctors/experts to identify the diseases with a common set of symptoms and also has been extensively increasing in medical diagnosis problems. The theory of cross entropy for intuitionistic fuzzy sets (IFS) is an effective approach in coping uncertainty in decision making for medical diagnosis problem. The main focus of this paper is to propose a new intuitionistic fuzzy cross entropy measure (IFCEM), which aid in reducing the uncertainty and doctors/experts will take their decision easily in context of patient’s disease. It is shown that the proposed measure has some elegant properties, which demonstrates its potency. Further, it is also exemplified in detail the efficiency and utility of the proposed measure by using a real life case study of diagnosis the disease in medical science.

Keywords: Uncertainty, Medical Diagnosis, Intuitionistic fuzzy cross entropy (IFCEM), intuitionistic fuzzy set (IFS)

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30 Objective and Subjective Preconditions for Entrepreneurship – From the Point of View of Enterprise Risk Management

Authors: Maria Luskova, Maria Hudakova, Katarina Buganova

Abstract:

Established objective and subjective preconditions for entrepreneurship, forming the business organically related whole, are the necessary condition of successful entrepreneurial activities. Objective preconditions for entrepreneurship are developed by market economy that should stimulate entrepreneurship by allowing the use of economic opportunities for all those who want to do business in respective field while providing guarantees to all owners and creating a stable business environment for entrepreneurs. Subjective preconditions of entrepreneurship are formed primarily by personal characteristics of the entrepreneur. These are his properties, abilities, skills, physiological and psychological preconditions which may be inherited, inborn or sequentially developed and obtained during his life on the basis of education and influences of surrounding environment. The paper is dealing with issues of objective and subjective preconditions for entrepreneurship and provides their analysis in view of the current situation in Slovakia. It presents risks of the business environment in Slovakia that the Slovak managers considered the most significant in 2014 and defines the dominant attributes of the entrepreneur in the current business environment in Slovakia.

Keywords: Entrepreneurship, Risk, Uncertainty, Innovations, Opportunity

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29 Wind Power Forecast Error Simulation Model

Authors: Josip Vasilj, Petar Sarajcev, Damir Jakus

Abstract:

One of the major difficulties introduced with wind power penetration is the inherent uncertainty in production originating from uncertain wind conditions. This uncertainty impacts many different aspects of power system operation, especially the balancing power requirements. For this reason, in power system development planing, it is necessary to evaluate the potential uncertainty in future wind power generation. For this purpose, simulation models are required, reproducing the performance of wind power forecasts. This paper presents a wind power forecast error simulation models which are based on the stochastic process simulation. Proposed models capture the most important statistical parameters recognized in wind power forecast error time series. Furthermore, two distinct models are presented based on data availability. First model uses wind speed measurements on potential or existing wind power plant locations, while the seconds model uses statistical distribution of wind speeds.

Keywords: wind power, Uncertainty, Stochastic Process, Monte Carlo simulation

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28 Airport Investment Risk Assessment under Uncertainty

Authors: Elena M. Capitanul, Carlos A. Nunes Cosenza, Walid El Moudani, Felix Mora Camino

Abstract:

The construction of a new airport or the extension of an existing one requires massive investments and many times public private partnerships were considered in order to make feasible such projects. One characteristic of these projects is uncertainty with respect to financial and environmental impacts on the medium to long term. Another one is the multistage nature of these types of projects. While many airport development projects have been a success, some others have turned into a nightmare for their promoters. This communication puts forward a new approach for airport investment risk assessment. The approach takes explicitly into account the degree of uncertainty in activity levels prediction and proposes milestones for the different stages of the project for minimizing risk. Uncertainty is represented through fuzzy dual theory and risk management is performed using dynamic programming. An illustration of the proposed approach is provided.

Keywords: Risk, Fuzzy Logic, Uncertainty, airports

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27 Science School Was Burned: A Case Study of Crisis Management in Thailand

Authors: Proud Arunrangsiwed

Abstract:

This study analyzes the crisis management and image repair strategies during the crisis of Mahidol Wittayanusorn School (MWIT) library burning. The library of this school was burned by a 16-year-old-male student on June 6th, 2010. This student blamed the school that the lesson was difficult, and other students were selfish. Although no one was in the building during the fire, it had caused damage to the building, books and electronic supplies around 130 million bahts (4.4 million USD). This event aroused many discourses arguing about the education system and morality. The strategies which were used during crisis were denial, shift the blame, bolstering, minimization, and uncertainty reduction. The results of using these strategies appeared after the crisis. That was the numbers of new students, who registered for the examination to get into this school in the later years, have remained the same.

Keywords: Crisis Management, Violence, Uncertainty, School, burn, image repair strategies

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26 How Do Crisis Affect Economic Policy?

Authors: Eva Kotlánová

Abstract:

After recession that began in 2007 in the United States and subsequently spilled over the Europe we could expect recovery of economic growth. According to the last estimation of economic progress of European countries, this recovery is not strong enough. Among others, it will depend on economic policy, where and in which way, the economic indicators will proceed. Economic theories postulate that the economic subjects prefer stably, continual economic policy without repeated and strong fluctuations. This policy is perceived as support of economic growth. Mostly in crises period, when the government must cope with consequences of recession, the economic policy becomes unpredictable for many subjects and economic policy uncertainty grows, which have negative influence on economic growth. The aim of this paper is to use panel regression to prove or disprove this hypothesis on the example of five largest European economies in the period 2008–2012.

Keywords: Economic Policy, Uncertainty, economic crises in Europe, panel analysis regression

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25 Representing Data without Lost Compression Properties in Time Series: A Review

Authors: Nabilah Filzah Mohd Radzuan, Zalinda Othman, Azuraliza Abu Bakar, Abdul Razak Hamdan

Abstract:

Uncertain data is believed to be an important issue in building up a prediction model. The main objective in the time series uncertainty analysis is to formulate uncertain data in order to gain knowledge and fit low dimensional model prior to a prediction task. This paper discusses the performance of a number of techniques in dealing with uncertain data specifically those which solve uncertain data condition by minimizing the loss of compression properties.

Keywords: Uncertainty, Weather Prediction, compression properties, uncertain time series, mining technique

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24 A Visualized Framework for Representing Uncertain and Incomplete Temporal Knowledge

Authors: Yue Wang, Jixin Ma, Brian Knight

Abstract:

This paper presents a visualized computer aided case tool for non-expert, called Visual Time, for representing and reasoning about incomplete and uncertain temporal information. It is both expressive and versatile, allowing logical conjunctions and disjunctions of both absolute and relative temporal relations, such as “Before”, “Meets”, “Overlaps”, “Starts”, “During”, and “Finishes”, etc. In terms of a visualized framework, Visual Time provides a user-friendly environment for describing scenarios with rich temporal structure in natural language, which can be formatted as structured temporal phrases and modeled in terms of Temporal Relationship Diagrams (TRD). A TRD can be automatically and visually transformed into a corresponding Time Graph, supported by automatic consistency checker that derives a verdict to confirm if a given scenario is temporally consistent or inconsistent.

Keywords: Uncertainty, incompleteness, Time Visualization, Consistency Checking

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23 Could Thermal Oceanic Hotspot Increase Climate Changes Activities in North Tropical Atlantic: Example of the 2005 Caribbean Coral Bleaching Hotspot and Hurricane Katrina Interaction

Authors: J- L. Siméon

Abstract:

This paper reviews recent studies and particularly the effects of Climate Change in the North Tropical Atlantic by studying atmospheric conditions that prevailed in 2005 ; Coral Bleaching HotSpot and Hurricane Katrina. In the aim to better understand and estimate the impact of the physical phenomenon, i.e. Thermal Oceanic HotSpot (TOHS), isotopic studies of δ18O and δ13C on marine animals from Guadeloupe (French Caribbean Island) were carried out. Recorded measures show Sea Surface Temperature (SST) up to 35°C in August which is much higher than data recorded by NOAA satellites 32°C. After having reviewed the process that led to the creation of Hurricane Katrina which hit New Orleans in August 29, 2005, it will be shown that the climatic conditions in the Caribbean from August to October 2005 have influenced Katrina evolution. This TOHS is a combined effect of various phenomenon which represent an additional factor to estimate future climate changes.

Keywords: Climate Change, Science, Uncertainty, sea, Isotope, connection, hurricane, Thermal Ocean HotSpot

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22 Modeling the Uncertainty of the Remanufacturing Process for Consideration of Extended Producer Responsibility (EPR)

Authors: Michael R. Johnson, Ian P. McCarthy

Abstract:

There is a growing body of evidence to support the proposition of product take back for remanufacturing particularly within the context of Extended Producer Responsibility (EPR). Remanufacturing however presents challenges unlike that of traditional manufacturing environments due to its high levels of uncertainty which may further distract organizations from considering its potential benefits. This paper presents a novel modeling approach for evaluating the uncertainty of part failures within the remanufacturing process and its impact on economic and environmental performance measures. This paper presents both the theoretical modeling approach and an example of its use in application.

Keywords: Sustainability, Uncertainty, Remanufacturing, extended producer responsibility, Demanufacturing

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21 Socio-Spatial Resilience Strategic Planning Through Understanding Strategic Perspectives on Tehran and Bath

Authors: Aynaz Lotfata

Abstract:

Planning community has been long discussing emerging paradigms within the planning theory in the face of the changing conditions of the world order. The paradigm shift concept was introduced by Thomas Kuhn, in 1960, who claimed the necessity of shifting within scientific knowledge boundaries; and following him in 1970 Imre Loktas also gave priority to the emergence of multi-paradigm societies [24]. Multi-paradigm is changing our predetermined lifeworld through uncertainties. Those uncertainties are reflected in two sides, the first one is uncertainty as a concept of possibility and creativity in public sphere and the second one is uncertainty as a risk. Therefore, it is necessary to apply a resilience planning approach to be more dynamic in controlling uncertainties which have the potential to transfigure present time and space definitions. In this way, stability of system can be achieved. Uncertainty is not only an outcome of worldwide changes but also a place-specific issue, i.e. it changes from continent to continent, a country to country; a region to region. Therefore, applying strategic spatial planning with respect to resilience principle contributes to: control, grasp and internalize uncertainties through place-specific strategies. In today-s fast changing world, planning system should follow strategic spatial projects to control multi-paradigm societies with adaptability capacities. Here, we have selected two alternatives to demonstrate; these are; 1.Tehran (Iran) from the Middle East 2.Bath (United Kingdom) from Europe. The study elaborates uncertainties and particularities in their strategic spatial planning processes in a comparative manner. Through the comparison, the study aims at assessing place-specific priorities in strategic planning. The approach is to a two-way stream, where the case cities from the extreme end of the spectrum can learn from each other. The structure of this paper is to firstly compare semi-periphery (Tehran) and coreperiphery (Bath) cities, with the focus to reveal how they equip to face with uncertainties according to their geographical locations and local particularities. Secondly, the key message to address is “Each locality requires its own strategic planning approach to be resilient.--

Keywords: Uncertainty, Adaptation, Relational Network, Socio-Spatial Strategic Resiliency

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20 A Novel Approach to Handle Uncertainty in Health System Variables for Hospital Admissions

Authors: Manisha Rathi, Thierry Chaussalet

Abstract:

Hospital staff and managers are under pressure and concerned for effective use and management of scarce resources. The hospital admissions require many decisions that have complex and uncertain consequences for hospital resource utilization and patient flow. It is challenging to predict risk of admissions and length of stay of a patient due to their vague nature. There is no method to capture the vague definition of admission of a patient. Also, current methods and tools used to predict patients at risk of admission fail to deal with uncertainty in unplanned admission, LOS, patients- characteristics. The main objective of this paper is to deal with uncertainty in health system variables, and handles uncertain relationship among variables. An introduction of machine learning techniques along with statistical methods like Regression methods can be a proposed solution approach to handle uncertainty in health system variables. A model that adapts fuzzy methods to handle uncertain data and uncertain relationships can be an efficient solution to capture the vague definition of admission of a patient.

Keywords: Uncertainty, Fuzzy, Regression, admission

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19 A Methodology for Creating a Conceptual Model Under Uncertainty

Authors: Bogdan Walek, Jiri Bartos, Cyril Klimes

Abstract:

This article deals with the conceptual modeling under uncertainty. First, the division of information systems with their definition will be described, focusing on those where the construction of a conceptual model is suitable for the design of future information system database. Furthermore, the disadvantages of the traditional approach in creating a conceptual model and database design will be analyzed. A comprehensive methodology for the creation of a conceptual model based on analysis of client requirements and the selection of a suitable domain model is proposed here. This article presents the expert system used for the construction of a conceptual model and is a suitable tool for database designers to create a conceptual model.

Keywords: Relationship, Database, Information System, Methodology, Uncertainty, Fuzzy, conceptual modeling, conceptual model, entity, attribute, conceptual domain model

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18 Confronting the Uncertainty of Systemic Innovation in Public Welfare Services

Authors: Harri Jalonen

Abstract:

Faced with social and health system capacity constraints and rising and changing demand for welfare services, governments and welfare providers are increasingly relying on innovation to help support and enhance services. However, the evidence reported by several studies indicates that the realization of that potential is not an easy task. Innovations can be deemed inherently complex to implement and operate, because many of them involve a combination of technological and organizational renewal within an environment featuring a diversity of stakeholders. Many public welfare service innovations are markedly systemic in their nature, which means that they emerge from, and must address, the complex interplay between political, administrative, technological, institutional and legal issues. This paper suggests that stakeholders dealing with systemic innovation in welfare services must deal with ambiguous and incomplete information in circumstances of uncertainty. Employing a literature review methodology and case study, this paper identifies, categorizes and discusses different aspects of the uncertainty of systemic innovation in public welfare services, and argues that uncertainty can be classified into eight categories: technological uncertainty, market uncertainty, regulatory/institutional uncertainty, social/political uncertainty, acceptance/legitimacy uncertainty, managerial uncertainty, timing uncertainty and consequence uncertainty.

Keywords: Uncertainty, systemic innovation, welfare services

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17 Investigating the Effect of Uncertainty on a LP Model of a Petrochemical Complex: Stability Analysis Approach

Authors: Abdallah Al-Shammari

Abstract:

This study discusses the effect of uncertainty on production levels of a petrochemical complex. Uncertainly or variations in some model parameters, such as prices, supply and demand of materials, can affect the optimality or the efficiency of any chemical process. For any petrochemical complex with many plants, there are many sources of uncertainty and frequent variations which require more attention. Many optimization approaches are proposed in the literature to incorporate uncertainty within the model in order to obtain a robust solution. In this work, a stability analysis approach is applied to a deterministic LP model of a petrochemical complex consists of ten plants to investigate the effect of such variations on the obtained optimal production levels. The proposed approach can determinate the allowable variation ranges of some parameters, mainly objective or RHS coefficients, before the system lose its optimality. Parameters with relatively narrow range of variations, i.e. stability limits, are classified as sensitive parameters or constraints that need accurate estimate or intensive monitoring. These stability limits offer easy-to-use information to the decision maker and help in understanding the interaction between some model parameters and deciding when the system need to be re-optimize. The study shows that maximum production of ethylene and the prices of intermediate products are the most sensitive factors that affect the stability of the optimum solution

Keywords: petrochemicals, Uncertainty, Stability Analysis, Linear Programming

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16 Mean Codeword Lengths and Their Correspondence with Entropy Measures

Authors: R.K.Tuli

Abstract:

The objective of the present communication is to develop new genuine exponentiated mean codeword lengths and to study deeply the problem of correspondence between well known measures of entropy and mean codeword lengths. With the help of some standard measures of entropy, we have illustrated such a correspondence. In literature, we usually come across many inequalities which are frequently used in information theory. Keeping this idea in mind, we have developed such inequalities via coding theory approach.

Keywords: Uncertainty, Codeword, Code alphabet, Uniquely decipherablecode, Mean codeword length, Noiseless channel

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15 Normalization and Constrained Optimization of Measures of Fuzzy Entropy

Authors: K.C. Deshmukh, P.G. Khot, Nikhil

Abstract:

In the literature of information theory, there is necessity for comparing the different measures of fuzzy entropy and this consequently, gives rise to the need for normalizing measures of fuzzy entropy. In this paper, we have discussed this need and hence developed some normalized measures of fuzzy entropy. It is also desirable to maximize entropy and to minimize directed divergence or distance. Keeping in mind this idea, we have explained the method of optimizing different measures of fuzzy entropy.

Keywords: Uncertainty, fuzzy set, membership function, fuzzy entropy, normalization

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14 Variation of Uncertainty in Steady And Non-Steady Processes Of Queuing Theory

Authors: Om Parkash, C.P.Gandhi

Abstract:

Probabilistic measures of uncertainty have been obtained as functions of time and birth and death rates in a queuing process. The variation of different entropy measures has been studied in steady and non-steady processes of queuing theory.

Keywords: Uncertainty, steady state, Non-steady state, trafficintensity, monotonocity

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13 Investigation and Calculation of Seismic Reliability of Structures

Authors: Panam. Zarfam, Mohsen. Javan Pour

Abstract:

Recently, analysis and designing of the structures based on the Reliability theory have been the center of attention. Reason of this attention is the existence of the natural and random structural parameters such as the material specification, external loads, geometric dimensions etc. By means of the Reliability theory, uncertainties resulted from the statistical nature of the structural parameters can be changed into the mathematical equations and the safety and operational considerations can be considered in the designing process. According to this theory, it is possible to study the destruction probability of not only a specific element but also the entire system. Therefore, after being assured of safety of every element, their reciprocal effects on the safety of the entire system can be investigated.

Keywords: Statistics, Probability, Reliability, Uncertainty

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12 Losses Analysis in TEP Considering Uncertainity in Demand by DPSO

Authors: S. Jalilzadeh, A. Kimiyaghalam, A. Ashouri

Abstract:

This paper presents a mathematical model and a methodology to analyze the losses in transmission expansion planning (TEP) under uncertainty in demand. The methodology is based on discrete particle swarm optimization (DPSO). DPSO is a useful and powerful stochastic evolutionary algorithm to solve the large-scale, discrete and nonlinear optimization problems like TEP. The effectiveness of the proposed idea is tested on an actual transmission network of the Azerbaijan regional electric company, Iran. The simulation results show that considering the losses even for transmission expansion planning of a network with low load growth is caused that operational costs decreases considerably and the network satisfies the requirement of delivering electric power more reliable to load centers.

Keywords: Uncertainty, DPSO, TEP

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11 On the Robust Stability of Homogeneous Perturbed Large-Scale Bilinear Systems with Time Delays and Constrained Inputs

Authors: Chien-Hua Lee, Cheng-Yi Chen

Abstract:

The stability test problem for homogeneous large-scale perturbed bilinear time-delay systems subjected to constrained inputs is considered in this paper. Both nonlinear uncertainties and interval systems are discussed. By utilizing the Lyapunove equation approach associated with linear algebraic techniques, several delay-independent criteria are presented to guarantee the robust stability of the overall systems. The main feature of the presented results is that although the Lyapunov stability theorem is used, they do not involve any Lyapunov equation which may be unsolvable. Furthermore, it is seen the proposed schemes can be applied to solve the stability analysis problem of large-scale time-delay systems.

Keywords: Uncertainty, transient response, time-delay, homogeneous bilinear system, constrained input, decay rate

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