Search results for: statistical inference

Authors: Peyman Shadman Heidari, Mohammad Khorasani

Abstract:

The principal purpose of this article is to present a new method based on Adaptive Neural Network Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) to generate additional artificial earthquake accelerograms from presented data, which are compatible with specified response spectra. The proposed method uses the learning abilities of ANFIS to develop the knowledge of the inverse mapping from response spectrum to earthquake records. In addition, wavelet packet transform is used to decompose specified earthquake records and then ANFISs are trained to relate the response spectrum of records to their wavelet packet coefficients. Finally, an interpretive example is presented which uses an ensemble of recorded accelerograms to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.

Keywords: Adaptive Neural Network Fuzzy Inference System, Wavelet Packet Transform, Response Spectrum.

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Authors: Yul Y. Nazaruddin, Anas Y. Widiaribowo, Satriyo Nugroho

Abstract:

Boiler is one of the critical unit in a petrochemical plant. Steam produced by the boiler is used for various processes in the plant such as urea and ammonia plant. An alternative method to optimize the boiler combustion system is presented in this paper. Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) approach is applied to model the boiler using real-time operational data collected from a boiler unit of the petrochemical plant. Nonlinear equation obtained is then used to optimize the air to fuel ratio using Genetic Algorithm, resulting an optimal ratio of 15.85. This optimal ratio is then maintained constant by ratio controller designed using inverse dynamics based on ANFIS. As a result, constant value of oxygen content in the flue gas is obtained which indicates more efficient combustion process.

Keywords: ANFIS, boiler, combustion process, genetic algorithm, optimization.

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Authors: Xiaoshu Lu, Päivi Leino-Arjas, Kustaa Piha, Akseli Aittomäki, Peppiina Saastamoinen, Ossi Rahkonen, Eero Lahelma

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Sickness absence represents a major economic and social issue. Analysis of sick leave data is a recurrent challenge to analysts because of the complexity of the data structure which is often time dependent, highly skewed and clumped at zero. Ignoring these features to make statistical inference is likely to be inefficient and misguided. Traditional approaches do not address these problems. In this study, we discuss model methodologies in terms of statistical techniques for addressing the difficulties with sick leave data. We also introduce and demonstrate a new method by performing a longitudinal assessment of long-term absenteeism using a large registration dataset as a working example available from the Helsinki Health Study for municipal employees from Finland during the period of 1990-1999. We present a comparative study on model selection and a critical analysis of the temporal trends, the occurrence and degree of long-term sickness absences among municipal employees. The strengths of this working example include the large sample size over a long follow-up period providing strong evidence in supporting of the new model. Our main goal is to propose a way to select an appropriate model and to introduce a new methodology for analysing sickness absence data as well as to demonstrate model applicability to complicated longitudinal data.

Keywords: Sickness absence, longitudinal data, methodologies, mix-distribution model.

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Authors: Besa Muslimi, Miriam A. M. Capretz, Jagath Samarabandu

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Artificial neural networks (ANN) have the ability to model input-output relationships from processing raw data. This characteristic makes them invaluable in industry domains where such knowledge is scarce at best. In the recent decades, in order to overcome the black-box characteristic of ANNs, researchers have attempted to extract the knowledge embedded within ANNs in the form of rules that can be used in inference systems. This paper presents a new technique that is able to extract a small set of rules from a two-layer ANN. The extracted rules yield high classification accuracy when implemented within a fuzzy inference system. The technique targets industry domains that possess less complex problems for which no expert knowledge exists and for which a simpler solution is preferred to a complex one. The proposed technique is more efficient, simple, and applicable than most of the previously proposed techniques.

Keywords: fuzzy rule extraction, fuzzy systems, knowledgeacquisition, pattern recognition, artificial neural networks.

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Authors: Takashi Sakai, Shinsaku Kikuta, Jun-ichi Koyama

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Using a texture database, a statistical estimation of spring-back was conducted in this study on the basis of statistical analysis. Both spring-back in bending deformation and experimental data related to the crystal orientation show significant dispersion. Therefore, a probabilistic statistical approach was established for the proper quantification of these values. Correlation was examined among the parameters F(x) of spring-back, F(x) of the buildup fraction to three orientations after 92° bending, and F(x) at an as-received part on the basis of the three-parameter Weibull distribution. Consequent spring-back estimation using a texture database yielded excellent estimates compared with experimental values.

Keywords: Bending, Spring-back, Database, Crystallographic Orientation, Texture, SEM-EBSD, Weibull distribution, Statistical analysis.

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Authors: V. Gomathi, Dr. K. Ramar, A. Santhiyaku Jeevakumar

Abstract:

Facial expression analysis plays a significant role for human computer interaction. Automatic analysis of human facial expression is still a challenging problem with many applications. In this paper, we propose neuro-fuzzy based automatic facial expression recognition system to recognize the human facial expressions like happy, fear, sad, angry, disgust and surprise. Initially facial image is segmented into three regions from which the uniform Local Binary Pattern (LBP) texture features distributions are extracted and represented as a histogram descriptor. The facial expressions are recognized using Multiple Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference System (MANFIS). The proposed system designed and tested with JAFFE face database. The proposed model reports 94.29% of classification accuracy.

Keywords: Adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system, Facialexpression, Local binary pattern, Uniform Histogram

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Authors: G. N. Srinivasan, G. Shobha

Abstract:

This paper presents an overview of the methodologies and algorithms for statistical texture analysis of 2D images. Methods for digital-image texture analysis are reviewed based on available literature and research work either carried out or supervised by the authors.

Keywords: Image Texture, Texture Analysis, Statistical Approaches, Structural approaches, spectral approaches, Morphological approaches, Fractals, Fourier Transforms, Gabor Filters, Wavelet transforms.

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Authors: Samad Nejatian, Vahideh Rezaie, Vahid Asadpour

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This paper presents a novel approach for the design of microwave circuits using Adaptive Network Fuzzy Inference Optimizer (ANFIO). The method takes advantage of direct synthesis of subsections of the amplifier using very fast and accurate ANFIO models based on exact simulations using ADS. A mapping from course space to fine space known as space mapping is also used. The proposed synthesis approach takes into account the noise and scattering parameters due to parasitic elements to achieve optimal results. The overall ANFIO system is capable of designing different LNAs at different noise and scattering criteria. This approach offers significantly reduced time in the design of microwave amplifiers within the validity range of the ANFIO system. The method has been proven to work efficiently for a 2.4GHz LNA example. The S21 of 10.1 dB and noise figure (NF) of 2.7 dB achieved for ANFIO while S21 of 9.05 dB and NF of 2.6 dB achieved for ANN.

Keywords: fuzzy system, low noise amplifier, microwaveamplifier, space mapping

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Authors: Anna Lower, Michal Lower, Robert Masztalski, Agnieszka Szumilas

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The paper presents a method in which the expert knowledge is applied to fuzzy inference model. Even a less experienced person could benefit from the use of such a system, e.g. urban planners, officials. The analysis result is obtained in a very short time, so a large number of the proposed locations can also be verified in a short time. The proposed method is intended for testing of locations of car parks in a city. The paper shows selected examples of locations of the P&R facilities in cities planning to introduce the P&R. The analyses of existing objects are also shown in the paper and they are confronted with the opinions of the system users, with particular emphasis on unpopular locations. The results of the analyses are compared to expert analysis of the P&R facilities location that was outsourced by the city and the opinions about existing facilities users that were expressed on social networking sites. The obtained results are consistent with actual users’ feedback. The proposed method proves to be good, but does not require the involvement of a large experts team and large financial contributions for complicated research. The method also provides an opportunity to show the alternative location of P&R facilities. Although the results of the method are approximate, they are not worse than results of analysis of employed experts. The advantage of this method is ease of use, which simplifies the professional expert analysis. The ability of analyzing a large number of alternative locations gives a broader view on the problem. It is valuable that the arduous analysis of the team of people can be replaced by the model's calculation. According to the authors, the proposed method is also suitable for implementation on a GIS platform.

Keywords: Fuzzy logic inference, P&R facilities, P&R location.

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Authors: Rahib Hidayat Abiyev

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This paper presents the development of recurrent neural network based fuzzy inference system for identification and control of dynamic nonlinear plant. The structure and algorithms of fuzzy system based on recurrent neural network are described. To train unknown parameters of the system the supervised learning algorithm is used. As a result of learning, the rules of neuro-fuzzy system are formed. The neuro-fuzzy system is used for the identification and control of nonlinear dynamic plant. The simulation results of identification and control systems based on recurrent neuro-fuzzy network are compared with the simulation results of other neural systems. It is found that the recurrent neuro-fuzzy based system has better performance than the others.

Keywords: Fuzzy logic, neural network, neuro-fuzzy system, control system.

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Authors: Leehter Yao, Chin-Chin Lin

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An adaptive fuzzy PID controller with gain scheduling is proposed in this paper. The structure of the proposed gain scheduled fuzzy PID (GS_FPID) controller consists of both fuzzy PI-like controller and fuzzy PD-like controller. Both of fuzzy PI-like and PD-like controllers are weighted through adaptive gain scheduling, which are also determined by fuzzy logic inference. A modified genetic algorithm called accumulated genetic algorithm is designed to learn the parameters of fuzzy inference system. In order to learn the number of fuzzy rules required for the TSK model, the fuzzy rules are learned in an accumulated way. In other words, the parameters learned in the previous rules are accumulated and updated along with the parameters in the current rule. It will be shown that the proposed GS_FPID controllers learned by the accumulated GA perform well for not only the regular linear systems but also the higher order and time-delayed systems.

Keywords: Gain scheduling, fuzzy PID controller, adaptive control, genetic algorithm.

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Authors: Frank Emmert-Streib, Matthias Dehmer

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Inferring the network structure from time series data is a hard problem, especially if the time series is short and noisy. DNA microarray is a technology allowing to monitor the mRNA concentration of thousands of genes simultaneously that produces data of these characteristics. In this study we try to investigate the influence of the experimental design on the quality of the result. More precisely, we investigate the influence of two different types of random single gene perturbations on the inference of genetic networks from time series data. To obtain an objective quality measure for this influence we simulate gene expression values with a biologically plausible model of a known network structure. Within this framework we study the influence of single gene knock-outs in opposite to linearly controlled expression for single genes on the quality of the infered network structure.

Keywords: Dynamic Bayesian networks, microarray data, structure learning, Markov chain Monte Carlo.

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Authors: Ramandeep S. Sidhu, Sunil Khullar, Parvinder S. Sandhu, R. P. S. Bedi, Kiranbir Kaur

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In this paper, subtractive clustering based fuzzy inference system approach is used for early detection of faults in the function oriented software systems. This approach has been tested with real time defect datasets of NASA software projects named as PC1 and CM1. Both the code based model and joined model (combination of the requirement and code based metrics) of the datasets are used for training and testing of the proposed approach. The performance of the models is recorded in terms of Accuracy, MAE and RMSE values. The performance of the proposed approach is better in case of Joined Model. As evidenced from the results obtained it can be concluded that Clustering and fuzzy logic together provide a simple yet powerful means to model the earlier detection of faults in the function oriented software systems.

Keywords: Subtractive clustering, fuzzy inference system, fault proneness.

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Authors: Alexandre Boum, Salomon Madinatou

Abstract:

This paper aims at bringing a scientific contribution to the cardiac arrhythmia biomedical diagnosis systems; more precisely to the study of the amelioration of cardiac arrhythmia classification performance using artificial neural network, adaptive neuro-fuzzy and fuzzy inference systems classifiers. The purpose of this amelioration is to enable cardiologists to make reliable diagnosis through automatic cardiac arrhythmia analyzes and classifications based on high confidence classifiers. In this study, six classes of the most commonly encountered arrhythmias are considered: the Right Bundle Branch Block, the Left Bundle Branch Block, the Ventricular Extrasystole, the Auricular Extrasystole, the Atrial Fibrillation and the Normal Cardiac rate beat. From the electrocardiogram (ECG) extracted parameters, we constructed a matrix (360x360) serving as an input data sample for the classifiers based on neural networks and a matrix (1x6) for the classifier based on fuzzy logic. By varying three parameters (the quality of the neural network learning, the data size and the quality of the input parameters) the automatic classification permitted us to obtain the following performances: in terms of correct classification rate, 83.6% was obtained using the fuzzy logic based classifier, 99.7% using the neural network based classifier and 99.8% for the adaptive neuro-fuzzy based classifier. These results are based on signals containing at least 360 cardiac cycles. Based on the comparative analysis of the aforementioned three arrhythmia classifiers, the classifiers based on neural networks exhibit a better performance.

Keywords: Adaptive neuro-fuzzy, artificial neural network, cardiac arrythmias, fuzzy inference systems.

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Authors: Hirofumi Miyajima, Kazuya Kishida, Noritaka Shigei, Hiromi Miyajima

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Most of self-tuning fuzzy systems, which are automatically constructed from learning data, are based on the steepest descent method (SDM). However, this approach often requires a large convergence time and gets stuck into a shallow local minimum. One of its solutions is to use fuzzy rule modules with a small number of inputs such as DIRMs (Double-Input Rule Modules) and SIRMs (Single-Input Rule Modules). In this paper, we consider a (generalized) DIRMs model composed of double and single-input rule modules. Further, in order to reduce the redundant modules for the (generalized) DIRMs model, pruning and generative learning algorithms for the model are suggested. In order to show the effectiveness of them, numerical simulations for function approximation, Box-Jenkins and obstacle avoidance problems are performed.

Keywords: Box-Jenkins’s problem, Double-input rule module, Fuzzy inference model, Obstacle avoidance, Single-input rule module.

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Authors: Jalal Haghighat Monfared, Zahra Akbari

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Today, business executives need to have useful information to make better decisions. Banks have also been using information tools so that they can direct the decision-making process in order to achieve their desired goals by rapidly extracting information from sources with the help of business intelligence. The research seeks to investigate whether there is a relationship between the quality of decision making and the business intelligence capabilities of Mellat Bank. Each of the factors studied is divided into several components, and these and their relationships are measured by a questionnaire. The statistical population of this study consists of all managers and experts of Mellat Bank's General Departments (including 190 people) who use commercial intelligence reports. The sample size of this study was 123 randomly determined by statistical method. In this research, relevant statistical inference has been used for data analysis and hypothesis testing. In the first stage, using the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, the normalization of the data was investigated and in the next stage, the construct validity of both variables and their resulting indexes were verified using confirmatory factor analysis. Finally, using the structural equation modeling and Pearson's correlation coefficient, the research hypotheses were tested. The results confirmed the existence of a positive relationship between decision quality and business intelligence capabilities in Mellat Bank. Among the various capabilities, including data quality, correlation with other systems, user access, flexibility and risk management support, the flexibility of the business intelligence system was the most correlated with the dependent variable of the present research. This shows that it is necessary for Mellat Bank to pay more attention to choose the required business intelligence systems with high flexibility in terms of the ability to submit custom formatted reports. Subsequently, the quality of data on business intelligence systems showed the strongest relationship with quality of decision making. Therefore, improving the quality of data, including the source of data internally or externally, the type of data in quantitative or qualitative terms, the credibility of the data and perceptions of who uses the business intelligence system, improves the quality of decision making in Mellat Bank.

Keywords: Business intelligence, business intelligence capability, decision making, decision quality.

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Authors: A. Ghaffari, A. Meghdari, D. Naderi, S. Eslami

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In this paper an algorithm based on the adaptive neuro-fuzzy controller is provided to enhance the tipover stability of mobile manipulators when they are subjected to predefined trajectories for the end-effector and the vehicle. The controller creates proper configurations for the manipulator to prevent the robot from being overturned. The optimal configuration and thus the most favorable control are obtained through soft computing approaches including a combination of genetic algorithm, neural networks, and fuzzy logic. The proposed algorithm, in this paper, is that a look-up table is designed by employing the obtained values from the genetic algorithm in order to minimize the performance index and by using this data base, rule bases are designed for the ANFIS controller and will be exerted on the actuators to enhance the tipover stability of the mobile manipulator. A numerical example is presented to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm.

Keywords: Mobile Manipulator, Tipover Stability Enhancement, Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference Controller System, Soft Computing.

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Authors: Cenk Akbiyik, Gonul Altin Akbiyik

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The main purpose of the study was to determine whether students- interpretation achievement differed with the use of various multimedia presentation types. Four groups of students, text only (T), audio only (A), text and audio (TA), text and image (TI), were arranged and they were presented the same story via different types of multimedia presentations. Inference achievement was measured by a critical thinking inference test. Higher mean scores for the TA group compared to the other three groups were found. Also when compared pairwise, interpretation achievement of the TA group differed significantly from scores of the T and TI groups. These differences were interpreted with the increased cognitive load. Increased cognitive load for the TA group may have invited students to put more effort into comprehending the text, thus resulting in better test scores. Findings of the study can be seen as a sign of the importance of learning situations and learning outcomes in multimedia-supported learning environments and may have practical benefits for instructional designers.

Keywords: Multimedia, cognitive multimedia, dual coding, cognitive load, critical thinking.

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Authors: Mohanchur Sakar, K.K.Shukla, K.S.Dasgupta

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This paper attempts to establish the fact that Multi State Network Classification is essential for performance enhancement of Transport protocols over Satellite based Networks. A model to classify Multi State network condition taking into consideration both congestion and channel error is evolved. In order to arrive at such a model an analysis of the impact of congestion and channel error on RTT values has been carried out using ns2. The analysis results are also reported in the paper. The inference drawn from this analysis is used to develop a novel statistical RTT based model for multi state network classification. An Adaptive Multi State Proactive Transport Protocol consisting of Proactive Slow Start, State based Error Recovery, Timeout Action and Proactive Reduction is proposed which uses the multi state network state classification model. This paper also confirms through detail simulation and analysis that a prior knowledge about the overall characteristics of the network helps in enhancing the performance of the protocol over satellite channel which is significantly affected due to channel noise and congestion. The necessary augmentation of ns2 simulator is done for simulating the multi state network classification logic. This simulation has been used in detail evaluation of the protocol under varied levels of congestion and channel noise. The performance enhancement of this protocol with reference to established protocols namely TCP SACK and Vegas has been discussed. The results as discussed in this paper clearly reveal that the proposed protocol always outperforms its peers and show a significant improvement in very high error conditions as envisaged in the design of the protocol.

Keywords: GEO, ns2, Proactive TCP, SACK, Vegas

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Authors: Ibtihaj Al-Siyabi

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The crisis of COVID-19 posed enormous challenges to the statistical providers. While official statistics were disrupted by the pandemic and related containment measures, there was a growing and pressing need for real-time data and statistics to inform decisions. This paper gives an account of the way the pandemic impacted the operations of the National Statistical Offices (NSOs) in general in terms of data collection and methods used, and the main challenges encountered by them based on international surveys. It highlights the performance of the Statistical Centre for the Cooperation Council for the Arab Countries of the Gulf, GCC-STAT, and its responsiveness to the pandemic placing special emphasis on environmental statistics. The paper concludes by confirming the GCC-STAT’s resilience and success in facing the challenges.

Keywords: NSO, COVID-19, pandemic, National Statistical Offices.

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Authors: Ali Asadian, Behzad Moshiri, Ali Khaki Sedigh, Caro Lucas

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Most integrated inertial navigation systems (INS) and global positioning systems (GPS) have been implemented using the Kalman filtering technique with its drawbacks related to the need for predefined INS error model and observability of at least four satellites. Most recently, a method using a hybrid-adaptive network based fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) has been proposed which is trained during the availability of GPS signal to map the error between the GPS and the INS. Then it will be used to predict the error of the INS position components during GPS signal blockage. This paper introduces a genetic optimization algorithm that is used to update the ANFIS parameters with respect to the INS/GPS error function used as the objective function to be minimized. The results demonstrate the advantages of the genetically optimized ANFIS for INS/GPS integration in comparison with conventional ANFIS specially in the cases of satellites- outages. Coping with this problem plays an important role in assessment of the fusion approach in land navigation.

Keywords: Adaptive Network based Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS), Genetic optimization, Global Positioning System (GPS), Inertial Navigation System (INS).

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Authors: Dimitra Alexiou

Abstract:

During the last 10 years, in spite of the economic crisis, the number of tourists arriving in Greece has increased, particularly during the tourist season from April to October. In this paper, the number of annual tourist arrivals is studied to explore their preferences with regard to the month of travel, the selected destinations, as well the amount of money spent. The collected data are processed with statistical methods, yielding numerical and graphical results. From the computation of statistical parameters and the forecasting with exponential smoothing, useful conclusions are arrived at that can be used by the Greek tourism authorities, as well as by tourist organizations, for planning purposes for the coming years. The results of this paper and the computed forecast can also be used for decision making by private tourist enterprises that are investing in Greece. With regard to the statistical methods, the method of Simple Exponential Smoothing of time series of data is employed. The search for a best forecast for 2017 and 2018 provides the value of the smoothing coefficient. For all statistical computations and graphics Microsoft Excel is used.

Keywords: Tourism, statistical methods, exponential smoothing, land spatial planning, economy, Microsoft Excel.

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Authors: Yohei Saika, Yuji Haraguchi

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We constructed a method of noise reduction for JPEG-compressed image based on Bayesian inference using the maximizer of the posterior marginal (MPM) estimate. In this method, we tried the MPM estimate using two kinds of likelihood, both of which enhance grayscale images converted into the JPEG-compressed image through the lossy JPEG image compression. One is the deterministic model of the likelihood and the other is the probabilistic one expressed by the Gaussian distribution. Then, using the Monte Carlo simulation for grayscale images, such as the 256-grayscale standard image “Lena" with 256 × 256 pixels, we examined the performance of the MPM estimate based on the performance measure using the mean square error. We clarified that the MPM estimate via the Gaussian probabilistic model of the likelihood is effective for reducing noises, such as the blocking artifacts and the mosquito noise, if we set parameters appropriately. On the other hand, we found that the MPM estimate via the deterministic model of the likelihood is not effective for noise reduction due to the low acceptance ratio of the Metropolis algorithm.

Keywords: Noise reduction, JPEG-compressed image, Bayesian inference, the maximizer of the posterior marginal estimate

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Authors: Abdelaziz Zaidi, Belkacem Ould Bouamama, Moncef Tagina

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Bond Graph as a unified multidisciplinary tool is widely used not only for dynamic modelling but also for Fault Detection and Isolation because of its structural and causal proprieties. A binary Fault Signature Matrix is systematically generated but to make the final binary decision is not always feasible because of the problems revealed by such method. The purpose of this paper is introducing a methodology for the improvement of the classical binary method of decision-making, so that the unknown and identical failure signatures can be treated to improve the robustness. This approach consists of associating the evaluated residuals and the components reliability data to build a Hybrid Bayesian Network. This network is used in two distinct inference procedures: one for the continuous part and the other for the discrete part. The continuous nodes of the network are the prior probabilities of the components failures, which are used by the inference procedure on the discrete part to compute the posterior probabilities of the failures. The developed methodology is applied to a real steam generator pilot process.

Keywords: Redundancy relations, decision-making, Bond Graph, reliability, Bayesian Networks.

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Authors: O. Belalia Douma, B. Boukhatem, M. Ghrici

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Self-compacting concrete (SCC) developed in Japan in the late 80s has enabled the construction industry to reduce demand on the resources, improve the work condition and also reduce the impact of environment by elimination of the need for compaction. Fuzzy logic (FL) approaches has recently been used to model some of the human activities in many areas of civil engineering applications. Especially from these systems in the model experimental studies, very good results have been obtained. In the present study, a model for predicting compressive strength of SCC containing various proportions of fly ash, as partial replacement of cement has been developed by using Fuzzy Inference System (FIS). For the purpose of building this model, a database of experimental data were gathered from the literature and used for training and testing the model. The used data as the inputs of fuzzy logic models are arranged in a format of five parameters that cover the total binder content, fly ash replacement percentage, water content, superplasticizer and age of specimens. The training and testing results in the fuzzy logic model have shown a strong potential for predicting the compressive strength of SCC containing fly ash in the considered range.

Keywords: Self-compacting concrete, fly ash, strength prediction, fuzzy logic.

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Authors: Leslie J.C.Bluck, Sarah J.Jackson, Georgios Vlasakakis, Adrian Mander

Abstract:

The use of a Bayesian Hierarchical Model (BHM) to interpret breath measurements obtained during a 13C Octanoic Breath Test (13COBT) is demonstrated. The statistical analysis was implemented using WinBUGS, a commercially available computer package for Bayesian inference. A hierarchical setting was adopted where poorly defined parameters associated with a delayed Gastric Emptying (GE) were able to "borrow" strength from global distributions. This is proved to be a sufficient tool to correct model's failures and data inconsistencies apparent in conventional analyses employing a Non-linear least squares technique (NLS). Direct comparison of two parameters describing gastric emptying ng ( tlag -lag phase, t1/ 2 -half emptying time) revealed a strong correlation between the two methods. Despite our large dataset ( n = 164 ), Bayesian modeling was fast and provided a successful fitting for all subjects. On the contrary, NLS failed to return acceptable estimates in cases where GE was delayed.

Keywords: Bayesian hierarchical analysis, 13COBT, Gastricemptying, WinBUGS.

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Authors: A. Maghari, V. H. Maleki

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In this paper, we present a quantum statistical mechanical formulation from our recently analytical expressions for partial-wave transition matrix of a three-particle system. We report the quantum reactive cross sections for three-body scattering processes 1+(2,3)→1+(2,3) as well as recombination 1+(2,3)→1+(3,1) between one atom and a weakly-bound dimer. The analytical expressions of three-particle transition matrices and their corresponding cross-sections were obtained from the threedimensional Faddeev equations subjected to the rank-two non-local separable potentials of the generalized Yamaguchi form. The equilibrium quantum statistical mechanical properties such partition function and equation of state as well as non-equilibrium quantum statistical properties such as transport cross-sections and their corresponding transport collision integrals were formulated analytically. This leads to obtain the transport properties, such as viscosity and diffusion coefficient of a moderate dense gas.

Keywords: Statistical mechanics, Nonlocal separable potential, three-body interaction, Faddeev equations.

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Authors: Hamed.Vezvaei, Sepideh.Ordibeheshti, Mehdi.Ardjmand

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Gasoline Octane Number is the standard measure of the anti-knock properties of a motor in platforming processes, that is one of the important unit operations for oil refineries and can be determined with online measurement or use CFR (Cooperative Fuel Research) engines. Online measurements of the Octane number can be done using direct octane number analyzers, that it is too expensive, so we have to find feasible analyzer, like ANFIS estimators. ANFIS is the systems that neural network incorporated in fuzzy systems, using data automatically by learning algorithms of NNs. ANFIS constructs an input-output mapping based both on human knowledge and on generated input-output data pairs. In this research, 31 industrial data sets are used (21 data for training and the rest of the data used for generalization). Results show that, according to this simulation, hybrid method training algorithm in ANFIS has good agreements between industrial data and simulated results.

Keywords: Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference Systems, GasolineOctane Number, Soft-sensor, Catalytic Naphtha Reforming

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Authors: Do-Hwan Kim, Roberto Leon

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Probabilistic characteristics of seismic responses of the Partially Restrained connection rotation (PRCR) and panel zone deformation (PZD) installed in older steel moment frames were investigated in accordance with statistical inference in decision-making process. The 4, 6 and 8 story older steel moment frames with clip angle and T-stub connections were designed and analyzed using 2%/50yrs ground motions in four cities of the Mid-America earthquake region. The probability density function and cumulative distribution function of PRCR and PZD were determined by the goodness-of-fit tests based on probabilistic parameters measured from the results of the nonlinear time-history analyses. The obtained probabilistic parameters and distributions can be used to find out what performance level mainly PR connections and panel zones satisfy and how many PR connections and panel zones experience a serious damage under the Mid-America ground motions.

Keywords: Mid-America earthquake, Panel zone, PR connection, Probabilistic characteristics, seismic performance

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Authors: Nigina Toktasynova, Sholpan Sagyndykova, Zhanat Kenzhebayeva, Maksat Kalimoldayev, Mariya Ishimova, Irbulat Utepbergenov

Abstract:

To solve these problems, we investigated the management system of heating enterprise, including strategic planning based on the balanced scorecard (BSC), quality management in accordance with the standards of the Quality Management System (QMS) ISO 9001 and analysis of the system based on expert judgment using fuzzy inference. To carry out our work we used the theory of fuzzy sets, the QMS in accordance with ISO 9001, BSC, method of construction of business processes according to the notation IDEF0, theory of modeling using Matlab software simulation tools and graphical programming LabVIEW. The results of the work are as follows: We determined possibilities of improving the management of heat-supply plant-based on QMS; after the justification and adaptation of software tool it has been used to automate a series of functions for the management and reduction of resources and for the maintenance of the system up to date; an application for the analysis of the QMS based on fuzzy inference has been created with novel organization of communication software with the application enabling the analysis of relevant data of enterprise management system. 

Keywords: Balanced scorecard, heat supply, quality management system, the theory of fuzzy sets.

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