Search results for: significant events.

Authors: Noratiqah Mohd Ariff, Abdul Aziz Jemain, Mohd Aftar Abu Bakar

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The construction of Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curves is one of the most common and useful tools in order to design hydraulic structures and to provide a mathematical relationship between rainfall characteristics. IDF curves, especially those in Peninsular Malaysia, are often built using moving windows of rainfalls. However, these windows do not represent the actual rainfall events since the duration of rainfalls is usually prefixed. Hence, instead of using moving windows, this study aims to find regionalized distributions for IDF curves of extreme rainfalls based on storm events. Homogeneity test is performed on annual maximum of storm intensities to identify homogeneous regions of storms in Peninsular Malaysia. The L-moment method is then used to regionalized Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution of these annual maximums and subsequently. IDF curves are constructed using the regional distributions. The differences between the IDF curves obtained and IDF curves found using at-site GEV distributions are observed through the computation of the coefficient of variation of root mean square error, mean percentage difference and the coefficient of determination. The small differences implied that the construction of IDF curves could be simplified by finding a general probability distribution of each region. This will also help in constructing IDF curves for sites with no rainfall station.

Keywords: IDF curves, L-moments, regionalization, storm events.

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Authors: Sudipta Majumdar, Amarendra Kumar Mishra

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This paper proposes empirical mode decomposition (EMD) together with wavelet transform (WT) based analytic signal for power quality (PQ) events assessment. EMD decomposes the complex signals into several intrinsic mode functions (IMF). As the PQ events are non stationary, instantaneous parameters have been calculated from these IMFs using analytic signal obtained form WT. We obtained three parameters from IMFs and then used KNN classifier for classification of PQ disturbance. We compared the classification of proposed method for PQ events by obtaining the features using Hilbert transform (HT) method. The classification efficiency using WT based analytic method is 97.5% and using HT based analytic signal is 95.5%.

Keywords: Empirical mode decomposition, Hilbert transform, wavelet transform.

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Authors: B. O. Diyaolu

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The opportunity provided by advances in technology as regard to sports betting is so numerous. Nigerian youth are not left out especially with the use of phones and visit to sports betting outlets. Today, it is more difficult to differentiate a true fan as there are quite a number of them that became fans as a result of betting on live games. This study investigated the influence of online sports events on betting among Nigerian youth. A descriptive survey research design was used and the population consists of all Nigerian youth that engages in betting and lives within the southwest zone of Nigeria. A simple random sampling technique was used to pick three states from the southwest zone of Nigeria. 2500 respondents comprising of males and females were sampled from the three states. A structured questionnaire on Online Sports Event Contribution to Sports Betting (OSECSB) was used. The instrument consists of three sections. Section A seeks information on the demographic data of the respondents. Section B seeks information on online sports events while section C was used to extract information on sports betting. The modified instrument which consists of 14 items has a reliability coefficient of 0.74. The hypothesis was tested at 0.05 significance level. The completed questionnaire was collated, coded, and analyzed using descriptive statistics of frequency counts, percentage and pie chart, and inferential statistics of multiple regressions. The findings of this study revealed that online sports betting is a significant predictor of an increase in sports betting among Nigerian youth. The media and television, as well as globalization and the internet, coupled with social media and various online platforms, have all contributed to the immense increase in sports betting. The increase in the advertisement of the betting platform during live matches, especially football, is becoming more alarming. In most organized international events, the media attention, as well as sponsorship rights, are now been given to one or two betting platforms. There is a need for all stakeholders to put in place school-based intervention programs to reorientate our youth about the consequences of addiction to betting. Such programs must include meta-analyses and emotional control towards sports betting.

Keywords: Betting platform, Nigerian fans, Nigerian youth, sports betting.

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Authors: Sozon H. Papavlasopoulos, Marios S. Poulos, George D. Bokos, Angelos M. Evangelou

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In this study, the problem of discriminating between interictal epileptic and non- epileptic pathological EEG cases, which present episodic loss of consciousness, investigated. We verify the accuracy of the feature extraction method of autocross-correlated coefficients which extracted and studied in previous study. For this purpose we used in one hand a suitable constructed artificial supervised LVQ1 neural network and in other a cross-correlation technique. To enforce the above verification we used a statistical procedure which based on a chi- square control. The classification and the statistical results showed that the proposed feature extraction is a significant accurate method for diagnostic discrimination cases between interictal and non-interictal EEG events and specifically the classification procedure showed that the LVQ neural method is superior than the cross-correlation one.

Keywords: Cross-Correlation Methods, Diagnostic Test, Interictal Epileptic, LVQ1 neural network, Auto-Cross-Correlation Methods, chi-square test.

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Authors: Samuel A. Phillips, Emmanuel A. Ayanlowo, Rasaki O. Olanrewaju, Olayode Fatoki

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This paper employs the Jeffrey's prior technique in the process of estimating the periodograms and frequency of sinusoidal model for unknown noisy time variants or oscillating events (data) in a Bayesian setting. The non-informative Jeffrey's prior was adopted for the posterior trigonometric function of the sinusoidal model such that Cramer-Rao Lower Bound (CRLB) inference was used in carving-out the minimum variance needed to curb the invariance structure effect for unknown noisy time observational and repeated circular patterns. An average monthly oscillating temperature series measured in degree Celsius (0C) from 1901 to 2014 was subjected to the posterior solution of the unknown noisy events of the sinusoidal model via Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). It was not only deduced that two minutes period is required before completing a cycle of changing temperature from one particular degree Celsius to another but also that the sinusoidal model via the CRLB-Jeffrey's prior for unknown noisy events produced a miniature posterior Maximum A Posteriori (MAP) compare to a known noisy events.

Keywords: Cramer-Rao Lower Bound (CRLB), Jeffrey's prior, Sinusoidal, Maximum A Posteriori (MAP), Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), Periodograms.

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Authors: Elizabeth Stojanovski

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Associations between life events and various forms of cancers have been identified. The purpose of a recent random-effects meta-analysis was to identify studies that examined the association between adverse events associated with changes to financial status including decreased income and breast cancer risk. The same association was studied in four separate studies which displayed traits that were not consistent between studies such as the study design, location, and time frame. It was of interest to pool information from various studies to help identify characteristics that differentiated study results. Two random-effects Bayesian meta-analysis models are proposed to combine the reported estimates of the described studies. The proposed models allow major sources of variation to be taken into account, including study level characteristics, between study variance and within study variance, and illustrate the ease with which uncertainty can be incorporated using a hierarchical Bayesian modelling approach.

Keywords: Random-effects, meta-analysis, Bayesian, variation.

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Authors: B. Golchin, N. Riahi

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One of the most significant issues as attended a lot in recent years is that of recognizing the sentiments and emotions in social media texts. The analysis of sentiments and emotions is intended to recognize the conceptual information such as the opinions, feelings, attitudes and emotions of people towards the products, services, organizations, people, topics, events and features in the written text. These indicate the greatness of the problem space. In the real world, businesses and organizations are always looking for tools to gather ideas, emotions, and directions of people about their products, services, or events related to their own. This article uses the Twitter social network, one of the most popular social networks with about 420 million active users, to extract data. Using this social network, users can share their information and opinions about personal issues, policies, products, events, etc. It can be used with appropriate classification of emotional states due to the availability of its data. In this study, supervised learning and deep neural network algorithms are used to classify the emotional states of Twitter users. The use of deep learning methods to increase the learning capacity of the model is an advantage due to the large amount of available data. Tweets collected on various topics are classified into four classes using a combination of two Bidirectional Long Short Term Memory network and a Convolutional network. The results obtained from this study with an average accuracy of 93%, show good results extracted from the proposed framework and improved accuracy compared to previous work.

Keywords: emotion classification, sentiment analysis, social networks, deep neural networks

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Authors: Moustafa S. El-Sammany

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Flash floods are considered natural disasters that can cause casualties and demolishing of infra structures. The problem is that flash floods, particularly in arid and semi arid zones, take place in very short time. So, it is important to forecast flash floods earlier to its events with a lead time up to 48 hours to give early warning alert to avoid or minimize disasters. The flash flood took place over Wadi Watier - Sinai Peninsula, in October 24th, 2008, has been simulated, investigated and analyzed using the state of the art regional weather model. The Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model, which is a reliable short term forecasting tool for precipitation events, has been utilized over the study area. The model results have been calibrated with the real data, for the same date and time, of the rainfall measurements recorded at Sorah gauging station. The WRF model forecasted total rainfall of 11.6 mm while the real measured one was 10.8 mm. The calibration shows significant consistency between WRF model and real measurements results.

Keywords: Early warning system, Flash floods forecasting, WadiWatier, WRF model.

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Authors: Mohd Aftar Abu Bakar, Noratiqah Mohd Ariff, Abdul Aziz Jemain

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Storm Event Analysis (SEA) provides a method to define rainfalls events as storms where each storm has its own amount and duration. By modelling daily probability of different types of storms, the onset, offset and cycle of rainfall seasons can be determined and investigated. Furthermore, researchers from the field of meteorology will be able to study the dynamical characteristics of rainfalls and make predictions for future reference. In this study, four categories of storms; short, intermediate, long and very long storms; are introduced based on the length of storm duration. Daily probability models of storms are built for these four categories of storms in Peninsular Malaysia. The models are constructed by using Bernoulli distribution and by applying linear regression on the first Fourier harmonic equation. From the models obtained, it is found that daily probability of storms at the Eastern part of Peninsular Malaysia shows a unimodal pattern with high probability of rain beginning at the end of the year and lasting until early the next year. This is very likely due to the Northeast monsoon season which occurs from November to March every year. Meanwhile, short and intermediate storms at other regions of Peninsular Malaysia experience a bimodal cycle due to the two inter-monsoon seasons. Overall, these models indicate that Peninsular Malaysia can be divided into four distinct regions based on the daily pattern for the probability of various storm events.

Keywords: Daily probability model, monsoon seasons, regions, storm events.

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Authors: Danielle Sandler dos Passos, Helder Coelho, Flávia Mori Sarti

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Analysing the world banking sector, we realize that traditional risk measurement methodologies no longer reflect the actual scenario with uncertainty and leave out events that can change the dynamics of markets. Considering this, regulators and financial institutions began to search more realistic models. The aim is to include external influences and interdependencies between agents, to describe and measure the operationalization of these complex systems and their risks in a more coherent and credible way. Within this context, X-Events are more frequent than assumed and, with uncertainties and constant changes, the concept of antifragility starts to gain great prominence in comparison to others methodologies of risk management. It is very useful to analyse whether a system succumbs (fragile), resists (robust) or gets benefits (antifragile) from disorder and stress. Thus, this work proposes the creation of the Banking Antifragility Index (BAI), which is based on the calculation of a triangular fuzzy number – to "quantify" qualitative criteria linked to antifragility.

Keywords: Complex adaptive systems, X-events, risk management, antifragility, banking antifragility index, triangular fuzzy number.

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Authors: Breda M. Kiernan, Cormac Fay, Stephen Beirne, Dermot Diamond

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This paper describes the designs of a first and second generation autonomous gas monitoring system and the successful field trial of the final system (2nd generation). Infrared sensing technology is used to detect and measure the greenhouse gases methane (CH4) and carbon dioxide (CO2) at point sources. The ability to monitor real-time events is further enhanced through the implementation of both GSM and Bluetooth technologies to communicate these data in real-time. These systems are robust, reliable and a necessary tool where the monitoring of gas events in real-time are needed.

Keywords: Environmental monitoring, infrared sensing, autonomous system.

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Authors: Julian Pigott

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This paper presents the Language Learning as a Means of Drive Engagement (LLMDE) theory, derived from a grounded theory analysis of interviews with Japanese university students. According to LLMDE theory, language learning can be understood as a means of engaging one or more of four self-fulfillment drives: the drive to expand one’s horizons (perspective drive); the drive to make a success of oneself (status drive); the drive to engage in interaction with others (communication drive); and the drive to obtain intellectual and affective stimulation (entertainment drive). While many theories of learner psychology focus on conscious agency, LLMDE theory addresses the role of the unconscious. In addition, supplementary thematic analysis of the data revealed the role of context in mediating drive engagement. Unexpected memorable events, for example, play a key role in instigating and, indirectly, in regulating learning, as do institutional and cultural contexts. Given the apparent importance of such factors beyond the immediate control of the learner, and given the pervasive role of habit and drives, it is argued that the concept of motivation merits theoretical reappraisal. Rather than an underlying force determining language learning success or failure, it can be understood to emerge sporadically in consciousness to promote behavioral change, or to protect habitual behavior from disruption.

Keywords: Drives, grounded theory, motivation, significant events.

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Authors: V. Jafari, M. Jafari

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When long-term changes in normal weather patterns happen in a certain area, it generally could be identified as climate change. Concentration of principal's greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide, methane, ozone, and water vapor will cause climate change and perhaps climate variability. Main climate factors are temperature, precipitation, air pressure, and humidity. Extreme events may be the result of the changing of carbon dioxide concentration levels in the atmosphere which cause a change in temperature. Extreme events in some ways will affect the productivity of crop and dairy livestock. In this research, the correlation of milk production and temperature as the main climate factor in ChaharMahal and Bakhtiari province in Iran has been considered. The methodology employed for this study consists, collect reports and published national and provincial data, available recorded data on climate factors and analyzing collected data using statistical software. Milk production in ChaharMahal and Bakhtiari province is in the same pattern as national milk production in Iran. According to the current study results, there is a significant negative correlation between milk production in ChaharMahal and Bakhtiari provinces and temperature as the main climate change factor.

Keywords: ChaharMahal and Bakhtiari, climate change, impacts, Iran, milk production.

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Authors: Ada Yurman

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Social reactions to deviant groups with political goals follow two central patterns; one that associates personal characteristics with deviant behavior, and the other that claims that society is to be blamed for deviant behavior. The establishment usually tends towards the former notion and thus disclaims any responsibility for the distress of the underprivileged, while it is usually those who oppose government policies who believe that the fault lies with society. The purpose of the present research was to examine social reactions to the Wadi Salib riots that occurred in Haifa in 1959. These riots represented the first ethnic protest within Israeli society with its ideology of the ingathering of the exiles. The central question was whether this ideology contributed to the development of a different reaction when compared to reactions to similar events abroad. This question was examined by means of analyzing articles in the Israeli press of that period. The Israeli press representing the views of the establishment was at pains to point out that the rioters were criminals, their object being to obstruct the development of society. Opposition party leaders claimed that the rioters lived in poor circumstances, which constituted a direct result of government policies. An analysis of press reports on the Wadi Salib riots indicates a correspondence between the reaction to these events and similar events abroad. Nevertheless, the reaction to the Wadi Salib riots did not only express a conflict between different political camps, but also different symbolic universes. Each group exploited the events at Wadi Salib to prove that their ideology was the legitimate one.

Keywords: Riots, media, political deviance, symbolic universe.

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Authors: Bo Liu, Qingshan Kong, Weiqing Huang

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With the rapid development of modern communication, diagnosing the fiber-optic quality and faults in real-time is widely focused. In this paper, a Labview-based system is proposed for fiber-optic faults detection. The wavelet threshold denoising method combined with Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) is applied to denoise the optical time domain reflectometer (OTDR) signal. Then the method based on Gabor representation is used to detect events. Experimental measurements show that signal to noise ratio (SNR) of the OTDR signal is improved by 1.34dB on average, compared with using the wavelet threshold denosing method. The proposed system has a high score in event detection capability and accuracy. The maximum detectable fiber length of the proposed Labview-based system can be 65km.

Keywords: Empirical mode decomposition (EMD), events detection, Gabor transform, optical time domain reflectometer (OTDR), wavelet threshold denoising.

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Authors: Kulaya Wimolwat, Panlop Chakravitthamrong, Neti Waranuch

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Background: Seborrheic dermatitis is a common chronic skin condition affecting the face, scalp, chest, and trunk. The cause of seborrheic dermatitis is still unknown. Sebum production, lipid composition, hormone levels, and Malassezia species have been suggested as important factors in the development of seborrheic dermatitis. Curcuma aeruginosa Roxb. extract-containing cream with anti-inflammatory and anti-androgenic properties may be beneficial for treating mild to moderate facial seborrheic dermatitis. Objectives: We evaluated the efficacy and safety of 2% C. aeruginosa Roxb. extract-containing cream in the treatment of mild to moderate seborrheic dermatitis. Methods: This was a prospective, open-label, and non-comparative study. Ten adult patients clinically diagnosed with mild to moderate seborrheic dermatitis were enrolled in a four-week study. The 2% C. aeruginosa Roxb. cream was applied twice daily to a lesional area on the face for four weeks. The Scoring Index (SI) ranking system on days 14 and 28 was compared with that at baseline to determine the efficacy of treatment. The adverse events (burning sensation and erythema) were evaluated on days 14 and 28 to determine the safety of the treatment. Results: Significant improvement was observed in the reduction of the mean SI at day 14 (2.9) and 28 (1.4) compared to that at baseline (4.9). An adverse reaction was observed on day 14 (mild erythema 20% and mild burning sensation 10%) and was resolved by the end of the study. Conclusion: This open-label pilot study has shown that there was a significant improvement in the severity in these seborrheic patients and most reported they were satisfied with it. Reported adverse events were all mild.

Keywords: Anti-androgenic, antifungals, anti-inflammatory, Curcuma aeruginosa, seborrheic dermatitis, efficacy, safety.

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Authors: Sabry A. El Azazy

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Tourism plays an essential role in supporting the National Economy. Egypt was ranked as one of the most attractive touristic destinations worldwide. Tourism as a service sector affects political events and unstable conditions. Within the revolution of January 25th, 2011, tourism became below standards, and the archeological heritage sites were subject to threat. Because of the political tension and social instability, Egypt's tourism sector has drastically dropped. Currently, Egypt is working on overcoming the crisis caused by political unrest. However, it is expected to take a long time to get back to where it was, especially in terms of regaining the confidence of travelers in the country's ability to guarantee and maintain security and stability. Recently, many great projects have been done, such as; New Administrative Cairo Capital, New Suez Canal logistic project, New City of Al Alamin, New Grand Egyptian Museum, as well as other great projects that reflect positively on the tourism industry and archaeological heritage development in Egypt.

Keywords: Archaeology, archaeological heritage, attractions, national economy, political events, touristic destinations, tourism industry.

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Authors: S. Pesina, T. Solonchak

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In the process of information transmission (concept verbalization) we deal mostly with the substance (contents), and then pay attention to the form. Recalling events from the remote past, often we cannot exactly reproduce specific heard or pronounced words, as well as the syntactic structures. We remember events, feelings, images; we recall the general contents of the discourse. The thought gets a specific language form only during the concept verbalization phase. With minimum time for pondering, depending on the language competence level, the grammar and syntactic shaping often occurs automatically with the use of famous models and stereotypes. This means that the language form adapts itself to the consciousness, and not vice versa.

Keywords: Lexical eidos, phenomenology, noema, polysemantic word, semantic core.

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Authors: E. L. Suarez, D. E. Meeroff, Y. Yong

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Current flooding risk modeling focuses on resilience, defined as the probability of recovery from a severe flooding event. However, the long-term damage to property and well-being by nuisance flooding and its long-term effects on communities are not typically included in risk assessments. An approach was developed to address the probability of recovering from a severe flooding event combined with the probability of community performance during a nuisance event. A consolidated model, namely the conflation flooding recovery (&FR) model, evaluates risk-coping mitigation strategies for communities based on the recovery time from catastrophic events, such as hurricanes or extreme surges, and from everyday nuisance flooding events. The &FR model assesses the variation contribution of each independent input and generates a weighted output that favors the distribution with minimum variation. This approach is especially useful if the input distributions have dissimilar variances. The &FR is defined as a single distribution resulting from the product of the individual probability density functions. The resulting conflated distribution resides between the parent distributions, and it infers the recovery time required by a community to return to basic functions, such as power, utilities, transportation, and civil order, after a flooding event. The &FR model is more accurate than averaging individual observations before calculating the mean and variance or averaging the probabilities evaluated at the input values, which assigns the same weighted variation to each input distribution. The main disadvantage of these traditional methods is that the resulting measure of central tendency is exactly equal to the average of the input distribution’s means without the additional information provided by each individual distribution variance. When dealing with exponential distributions, such as resilience from severe flooding events and from nuisance flooding events, conflation results are equivalent to the weighted least squares method or best linear unbiased estimation. The combination of severe flooding risk with nuisance flooding improves flood risk management for highly populated coastal communities, such as in South Florida, USA, and provides a method to estimate community flood recovery time more accurately from two different sources, severe flooding events and nuisance flooding events.

Keywords: Community resilience, conflation, flood risk, nuisance flooding.

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Authors: Ghzlan Mahmoud Abdel Aziz

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This case study aims to identify the intrastate conflicts between the nation state and armed groups. Nowadays, most wars weaken states against armed groups. Thus, it is very important to negotiate with such groups in order to reinforce the law for the protection of victims. These armed groups are the cause of conflicts and they are related with many of humanitarian issues that result out of conflicts. In this age of rivalry; terrorists, insurgents, or transnational criminal parties have surfaced to the top as a reaction to these armed groups in an effort to set up a new world order. Moreover, the intra state conflicts became increasingly treacherous than the interstate conflicts, particularly when nation state systems deal with armed groups which try to influence the state. The unexpected upraising of the Arab Spring during 2011 in parts of the Middle East and North Africa formed various patterns of conflicts. The events of the Arab Spring resulted in current and long term change across the region. Significant modifications in the level, strength and period of armed conflict around the world have been made. Egypt was in the center of these events. It has fought back the armed groups under the name of terrorism and spread common disorder and violence among civilians. On this note, this study focuses on the problem of the transformation in the methods of organized violence within one state rather than between two state or more and analyzes the objectives, strategies, and internal composition of armed groups and the environments that foster them, with a focus on the Egyptian case.

Keywords: Armed groups, conflicts, Egyptian armed forces, intrastate conflicts.

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Authors: Ek-Uma Imkome, Jintana Yunibhand, Waraporn Chaiyawat

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Background: Persons with schizophrenia patient and misusing methamphetamines suffering from social dysfunction that impact on their quality of life. Knowledge of factors related to social dysfunction will guide the effective intervention. Objectives: To determine the direct effect, indirect effect and total effect of an acerbate Psychotics’ Symptoms, Social Support, Stressful life events, Medication use self-efficacy impact on social dysfunction in Thai schizophrenic patient and methamphetamine misuse. Methods: Data were collected from schizophrenic and methamphetamine misuse patient by self report. A linear structural relationship was used to test the hypothesized path model. Results: The hypothesized model was found to fit the empirical data and explained 54% of the variance of the psychotic symptoms (X² = 114.35, df = 92, p-value = 0.05, X² /df = 1.24, GFI = 0.96, AGFI = 0.92, CFI = 1.00, NFI = 0.99, NNFI = 0.99, RMSEA = 0.02). The highest total effect on social dysfunction was psychotic symptoms (0.67, p<0.05). Medication use self-efficacy had a direct effect on psychotic symptoms (-0.25, p<0.01), and social support had direct effect on medication use self efficacy (0.36, p <0.01). Conclusions: Psychotic symptoms and stressful life events were the significance factors that influenced direct on social dysfunctioning. Therefore, interventions that are designed to manage these factors are crucial in order to enhance social functioning in this population.

Keywords: Psychotic symptoms, methamphetamine, schizophrenia, stressful life events, social dysfunction, social support, medication use self-efficacy.

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Authors: Masood Uzzafer

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A dynamic risk management framework for software projects is presented. Currently available software risk management frameworks and risk assessment models are static in nature and lacks feedback capability. Such risk management frameworks are not capable of providing the risk assessment of futuristic changes in risk events. A dynamic risk management framework for software project is needed that provides futuristic assessment of risk events.

Keywords: Software Risk Management, Dynamic Models, Software Project Managment.

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Authors: Mosaad Khadr, Gerd Morgenschweis, Andreas Schlenkhoff

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Drought is one of the most damaging climate-related hazards, it is generally considered as a prolonged absence of precipitation. This normal and recurring climate phenomenon had plagued civilization throughout history because of the negative impacts on economical, environmental and social sectors. Drought characteristics are thus recognized as important factors in water resources planning and management. The purpose of this study is to detect the changes in drought frequency, persistence and severity in the Ruhr river basin. The frequency of drought events was calculated using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). Used data are daily precipitation records from seven meteorological stations covering the period 1961-2007. The main benefit of the application of this index is its versatility, only rainfall data is required to deliver five major dimensions of a drought : duration, intensity, severity, magnitude, and frequency. Furthermore, drought can be calculated in different time steps. In this study SPI was calculated for 1, 3, 6, 9, 12, and 24 months. Several drought events were detected in the covered period, these events contain mild, moderate and severe droughts. Also positive and negative trends in the SPI values were observed.

Keywords: Drought, Germany, Precipitation, Ruhr River, Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Trend Test.

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Authors: Andrey V. Timofeev

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The paper presents new results concerning selection of optimal information fusion formula for ensembles of C-OTDR channels. The goal of information fusion is to create an integral classificator designed for effective classification of seismoacoustic target events. The LPBoost (LP-β and LP-B variants), the Multiple Kernel Learning, and Weighing of Inversely as Lipschitz Constants (WILC) approaches were compared. The WILC is a brand new approach to optimal fusion of Lipschitz Classifiers Ensembles. Results of practical usage are presented.

Keywords: Lipschitz Classifier, Classifiers Ensembles, LPBoost, C-OTDR systems, ν-OTDR systems.

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Authors: Carrie Ho, Choo Bo Quan

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Urban non-point source (NPS) pollution for a residential catchment in Miri, Sarawak was investigated for two storm events in 2011. Runoff from two storm events were sampled and tested for water quality parameters including TSS, BOD5, COD, NH3-N, NO3-N, NO2-N, P and Pb. Concentration of the water quality parameters was found to vary significantly between storms and the pollutant of concern was found to be NO3-N, TSS, COD and Pb. Results were compared to the Interim National Water Quality Standards for Malaysia (INWQS),and the stormwater runoff from the study can be classified as polluted, exceeding class III water quality, especially in terms of TSS, COD, and NH3-N with maximum EMCs of 158, 135, and 2.17 mg/L, respectively.

Keywords: Residential land-use, urban runoff, water quality.

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Authors: Aiping Liu, Xiaoping Ying, Jing Luo

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53 college students answered questions regarding the circumstances in which they first heard about the news of Wenchuan earthquake or the news of their acceptance to college which took place approximately one year ago, and answered again two years later. The number of details recalled about their circumstances for both events was high and didn-t decline two years later. However, consistency in reported details over two years was low. Participants were more likely to construct central (e.g., Where were you?) than peripheral information (What were you wearing?), and the confidence of the central information was higher than peripheral information, which indicated that they constructed more when they were more confident.

Keywords: flashbulb memory, consistency, reconstructive error, confidence

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Authors: Entisar A. Elgmati

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Martingale model diagnostic for assessing the fit of logistic regression model to recurrent events data are studied. One way of assessing the fit is by plotting the empirical standard deviation of the standardized martingale residual processes. Here we used another diagnostic plot based on martingale residual covariance. We investigated the plot performance under several types of model misspecification. Clearly the method has correctly picked up the wrong model. Also we present a test statistic that supplement the inspection of the two diagnostic. The test statistic power agrees with what we have seen in the plots of the estimated martingale covariance.

Keywords: Covariance, logistic model, misspecification, recurrent events.

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Authors: Parvinder S. Sandhu, Vijay K. Banga, Prateek Gupta, Amit Verma

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The current paper conceptualizes the technique of release consistency indispensable with the concept of synchronization that is user-defined. Programming model concreted with object and class is illustrated and demonstrated. The essence of the paper is phases, events and parallel computing execution .The technique by which the values are visible on shared variables is implemented. The second part of the paper consist of user defined high level synchronization primitives implementation and system architecture with memory protocols. There is a proposition of techniques which are core in deciding the validating and invalidating a stall page .

Keywords: synchronization objects, barrier, phases and events, shared memory

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Authors: M. H. Fattahi, H. Jahangiri

Abstract:

All the geophysical phenomena including river networks and flow time series are fractal events inherently and fractal patterns can be investigated through their behaviors. A non-linear system like a river basin can well be analyzed by a non-linear measure such as the fractal analysis. A bilateral study is held on the fractal properties of the river network and the river flow time series. A moving window technique is utilized to scan the fractal properties of them. Results depict both events follow the same strategy regarding to the fractal properties. Both the river network and the time series fractal dimension tend to saturate in a distinct value.

Keywords: river flow time series, fractal, river networks

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Authors: Farideh Sharififar, Zahra Jamalian, Reza Nikbakhsh, Zahra Nobakht Ramezani

Abstract:

In sport, human resources management gives special attention to method of applying volunteers, their maintenance, and participation of volunteers with each other and management approaches for better operation of events celebrants. The recognition of volunteers- characteristics and motives is important to notice, because it makes the basis of their participation and commitment at sport environment. The motivation and commitment of 281 volunteers were assessed using the organizational commitment scale, motivation scale and personal characteristics questionnaire.The descriptive results showed that; 64% of volunteers were women with age average 21/24 years old. They were physical education student, single (71/9%), without occupation (53%) and with average of 5 years sport experience. Their most important motivation was career factor and the most important commitment factor was normative factor. The results of examining the hypothesized showed that; age, sport experience and education are effective in the amount of volunteers- commitment. And the motive factors such as career, material, purposive and protective factors also have the power to predict the amount of sports volunteers- commitment value. Therefore it is recommended to provide possible opportunities for volunteers and carrying out appropriate instructional courses by events executive managers.

Keywords: Sport Volunteers, Motivation, Organizational Commitment, Sport Event

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