Search results for: risk mitigation

Authors: Eberechi Weli, Michael Todinov

Abstract:

The gap between the selection of risk-reduction options in the railway industry and the task of their effective implementation results in compromised safety and substantial losses. An effective risk management must necessarily integrate the evaluation phases with the implementation phase. This paper proposes an essential categorisation of risk reduction measures that best addresses a standard railway industry portfolio. By categorising the risk reduction options into design, operational, procedural and technical options, it is guaranteed that the efforts of the implementation facilitators (people, processes and supporting systems) are systematically harmonised. The classification is based on an integration of fundamental principles of risk reduction in the railway industry with the systems engineering approach.

This paper argues that the use of a similar classification approach is an attribute of organisations possessing a superior level of risk-reduction readiness. The integration of the proposed rational classification structure provides a solid ground for effective risk reduction.

Keywords: Cost effectiveness, organisational readiness, risk reduction, railway, system engineering.

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Authors: Fong-Woon Lai

Abstract:

The risk sphere in business is fast changing and expanding. Almost anything has become a risk factor that will have potent, direct, and far reaching impacts on business. This paper examines the intensity of enterprise risk management (ERM) practices among the Malaysian public listed companies. The paper espouses a ERM framework comprising fourteen important implementation elements and processes. Results of the analysis indicate that the intensity of ERM implementation among the respondents is in the ‘good’ category of the semantic scale, which is deemed encouraging vis-à-vis the country’s regulatory regime.

Keywords: Enterprise risk management, implementation framework, ERM practices.

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Authors: Preeda Sansakorn, Min An

Abstract:

In order to be capable of dealing with uncertainties, subjectivities, including vagueness arising in building construction projects, the application of fuzzy reasoning technique based on fuzzy set theory is proposed. This study contributes significantly to the development of a fuzzy reasoning safety risk assessment model for building construction projects that could be employed to assess the risk magnitude of each hazardous event identified during construction, and a third parameter of probability of consequence is incorporated in the model. By using the proposed safety risk analysis methodology, more reliable and less ambiguities, which provide the safety risk management project team for decision-making purposes.

Keywords: Safety risks assessment, building construction safety, fuzzy reasoning, construction risk assessment model, building construction projects.

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Authors: A.Roshandel, N.Hedayat, H.kiamanesh

Abstract:

The one of most important objects in implementation of damage analysis observations is manner of dam break wave propagation. In this paper velocity and wave height due dam break in with and without tailwater states for appointment hazardous lands and flood radius are investigate. In order to modeling above phenomenon finite volume method of Roe type for solving shallow water equations is used. Results indicated that in the dry bed state risk radius due to dam break is too high. While in the wet bed risk radius has a less wide. Therefore in the first state constructions and storage facilities are encountered with destruction risk. Further velocity due to dam break in the second state is more comparing to the first state. Hence erosion and scour the river bed in the dry bed is too more compare to the wet bed.

Keywords: Dam break, finite volume method, tailwater, risk radius, scour

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Authors: Huei-Wen Lin

Abstract:

This paper is to clarify the relationship of individual investor types, risk tolerance and herding bias. The questionnaire survey investigation is conducted to collect 389 valid and voluntary individual investors and to examine how the risk tolerance plays as a mediator between four types of personality and herding bias. Based on featuring BB&K model and reviewing the prior literature of psychology, a linear structural model are constructed and further used to evaluate the path of herding formation through the analysis of Structural Equation Modeling (SEM). The results showed that more impetuous investors would be prone to herding bias directly, but rather exhibit higher risk tolerance. However, risk tolerance would fully mediate between the level of confidence (i.e., confident or anxious) and herding bias, but not mediate between the method of action (careful or impetuous) for individual investors.

Keywords: Herding, investor types, risk tolerance.

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Authors: Youngseok Lee, Dongjin Chung, Youngjin Kim

Abstract:

R&D risk management has been suggested as one of the management approaches for accomplishing the goals of public R&D investment. The investment in basic science and core technology development is the essential roles of government for securing the social base needed for continuous economic growth. And, it is also an important role of the science and technology policy sectors to generate a positive environment in which the outcomes of public R&D can be diffused in a stable fashion by controlling the uncertainties and risk factors in advance that may arise during the application of such achievements to society and industry. Various policies have already been implemented to manage uncertainties and variables that may have negative impact on accomplishing public R& investment goals. But we may derive new policy measures for complementing the existing policies and for exploring progress direction by analyzing them in a policy package from the viewpoint of R&D risk management.

Keywords: Risk management, Public R&D policy, Science andtechnology policy, Performance management.

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Authors: T. Messikh, S. Mekhilef, N. A. Rahim

Abstract:

This paper presents an effective technique for harmonic current mitigation using an adaptive notch filter (ANF) to estimate current harmonics. The proposed filter consists of multiple units of ANF connected in parallel structure; each unit is governed by two ordinary differential equations. The frequency estimation is carried out based on the output of these units. The simulation and experimental results show the ability of the proposed tracking scheme to accurately estimate harmonics. The proposed filter was implemented digitally in TMS320F2808 and used in the control of hybrid active power filter (HAPF). The theoretical expectations are verified and demonstrated experimentally.

Keywords: Adaptive notch filter, Active power filter, harmonic filtering, Time varying frequency.

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Authors: Mitsuhiro Taniyama, Yuu Hidaka, Masato Arai, Satoshi Kai, Hiromi Igawa, Hiroshi Yajima, Ryoichi Sasaki

Abstract:

Along with the progress of our information society, various risks are becoming increasingly common, causing multiple social problems. For this reason, risk communications for establishing consensus among stakeholders who have different priorities have become important. However, it is not always easy for the decision makers to agree on measures to reduce risks based on opposing concepts, such as security, privacy and cost. Therefore, we previously developed and proposed the “Multiple Risk Communicator" (MRC) with the following functions: (1) modeling the support role of the risk specialist, (2) an optimization engine, and (3) displaying the computed results. In this paper, MRC program version 1.0 is applied to the personal information leakage problem. The application process and validation of the results are discussed.

Keywords: Decision Making, Personal Information Leakage Problem, Risk Communication, Risk Management

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Authors: Sadovska V.

Abstract:

The progress of concentrations of particular heavy metals was assessed in chosen localities in region Moravia, the Czech Republic, from 2007 to 2009. Particular metals were observed in localities with various types and characterization of zone. Pb, Ni, As and Cd were emphasized as a result of their toxicity and potential adverse health effect to the exposed population. The progress of metal concentrations and their health effects in the most polluted localities were examined. According to the results, the air pollution limit values were not exceeded. Based on the health risk assessment, the probability of developing tumorous diseases is acceptable, except for the increased probability of cancer risk from long-term exposure to As.

Keywords: Air pollution, heavy metals, health risk assessment, individual lifetime cancer risk

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Authors: L. Lindsay, S. A. Coleman, D. Kerr, B. J. Taylor, A. Moorhead

Abstract:

Cognitive decline and frailty is apparent in older adults leading to an increased likelihood of the risk of falling. Currently health care professionals have to make professional decisions regarding such risks, and hence make difficult decisions regarding the future welfare of the ageing population. This study uses health data from The Irish Longitudinal Study on Ageing (TILDA), focusing on adults over the age of 50 years, in order to analyse health risk factors and predict the likelihood of falls. This prediction is based on the use of machine learning algorithms whereby health risk factors are used as inputs to predict the likelihood of falling. Initial results show that health risk factors such as long-term health issues contribute to the number of falls. The identification of such health risk factors has the potential to inform health and social care professionals, older people and their family members in order to mitigate daily living risks.

Keywords: Classification, falls, health risk factors, machine learning, older adults.

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Authors: Mária Hudáková, Mária Lusková

Abstract:

This report is focused on widening the theoretical knowledge as well as controlling practical application from the risk management point of view, regarding to dynamic business changes that have occurred in Slovakia which recently has been considered to be an environment full of risk and uncertainty. The idea of the report is the proposal of the controlling operation model in the course of risk management process in an enterprise operating in Slovakia, by which the controller is able to identify early risk factors in suggested major areas of the business management upon appropriate business information integration, consecutive control and prognoses and to prepare in time full-value documents in order to suggest measures for reduction thereof. Dealing with risk factors, that can quickly limit the growth potential of the enterprise, is an essential part of managerial activities on each level. This is the reason why mutual unofficial, ergo collegial cooperation of individual departments is necessary for controlling application from the business risk management point of view. An important part of the report is elaborated survey of the most important risk factors existing in major management areas of enterprises operating in Slovakia. The outcome of the performed survey is a catalogue of the most important enterprise risk factors. The catalogue serves for better understanding risk factors affecting the Slovak enterprises, their importance and evaluation.

Keywords: Controlling, information system, risks management, risk factor, crisis of enterprise.

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Authors: P. Moeinzadeh, A. Hajfathaliha

Abstract:

Many firms implemented various initiatives such as outsourced manufacturing which could make a supply chain (SC) more vulnerable to various types of disruptions. So managing risk has become a critical component of SC management. Different types of SC vulnerability management methodologies have been proposed for managing SC risk, most offer only point-based solutions that deal with a limited set of risks. This research aims to reinforce SC risk management by proposing an integrated approach. SC risks are identified and a risk index classification structure is created. Then we develop a SC risk assessment approach based on the analytic network process (ANP) and the VIKOR methods under the fuzzy environment where the vagueness and subjectivity are handled with linguistic terms parameterized by triangular fuzzy numbers. By using FANP, risks weights are calculated and then inserted to the FVIKOR to rank the SC members and find the most risky partner.

Keywords: Analytic network process (ANP), Fuzzy sets, Supply chain risk management (SCRM), VIšekriterijumsko KOmpromisno Rangiranje (VIKOR)

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Authors: Y. Chiang, J. R. Wang, J. H. Yang, Y. S. Tseng, C. Shih, S. W. Chen

Abstract:

Kuosheng nuclear power plant (NPP) is a BWR/6 plant in Taiwan. There is more concern for the safety of Spent Fuel Pools (SFPs) in Taiwan after Fukushima event. In order to estimate the safety of Kuosheng NPP SFP, by using MELCOR2.1 and SNAP, the safety analysis of Kuosheng NPP SFP was performed combined with the mitigation strategy of NEI 06-12 report. There were several steps in this research. First, the Kuosheng NPP SFP models were established by MELCOR2.1/SNAP. Second, the Station Blackout (SBO) analysis of Kuosheng SFP was done by TRACE and MELCOR under the cooling system failure condition. The results showed that the calculations of MELCOR and TRACE were very similar in this case. Second, the mitigation strategy analysis was done with the MELCOR model by following the NEI 06-12 report. The results showed the effectiveness of NEI 06-12 strategy in Kuosheng NPP SFP. Finally, a sensitivity study of SFP quenching was done to check the differences of different water injection time and the phenomena during the quenching. The results showed that if the cladding temperature was over 1600 K, the water injection may have chance to cause the accident more severe with more hydrogen generation. It was because of the oxidation heat and the “Breakaway” effect of the zirconium-water reaction. An animation model built by SNAP was also shown in this study.

Keywords: MELCOR, SNAP, spent fuel pool, quenching.

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Authors: Hossein Amoozad Khalili, Anahita Maleki

Abstract:

Normally business changes are made in order to change a level of activity in some way, whether it is sales, cash flow, productivity, or product portfolio. When attempts are made to make such changes, too often the business reverts to the old levels of activity as soon as management attention is diverted. Risk management is a field of growing interest to project managers as well as in general business and organizational management. There are several approaches used to manage risk in projects and this paper is a brief outline of some that you might encounter, with an indication of their strengths and weaknesses.

Keywords: Risk Management, Project Management, Scheduling, Planning

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Authors: Sandija Zeverte-Rivza, Irina Pilvere, Baiba Rivza

Abstract:

The use of renewable energy sources incl. biogas has become topical in accordance with the increasing demand for energy, decrease of fossil energy resources and the efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions as well as to increase energy independence from the territories where fossil energy resources are available.

As the technologies of biogas production from agricultural biomass develop, risk assessment and risk management become necessary for farms producing such a renewable energy. The need for risk assessments has become particularly topical when discussions on changing the biogas policy in the EU take place, which may influence the development of the sector in the future, as well as the operation of existing biogas facilities and their income level.

The current article describes results of the risk assessment for farms producing biomass from agriculture biomass in Latvia, the risk assessment system included 24 risks, that affect the whole biogas production process and the obtained results showed the high significance of political and production risks.

Keywords: Biogas production, risks, risk assessment.

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Authors: R. Berglund, T. Backström, M. Bellgran

Abstract:

This study explores how management addresses psychosocial risks in seven teams of engineers and technicians in the midst of the fourth industrial revolution. The sample is from an ongoing quasi-experiment about psychosocial risk management in a manufacturing company in Sweden. Each of the seven teams belongs to one of two clusters: a positive cluster or a negative cluster. The positive cluster reports a significantly positive change in psychosocial risk levels between two time-points and the negative cluster reports a significantly negative change. The data are collected using semi-structured interviews. The results of the computer aided thematic analysis show that there are more differences than similarities when comparing the risk treatment actions taken between the two clusters. Findings show that the managers in the positive cluster use more enabling actions that foster and support formal and informal relationship building. In contrast, managers that use less enabling actions hinder the development of positive group processes and contribute negative changes in psychosocial risk levels. This exploratory study sheds some light on how management can influence significant positive and negative changes in psychosocial risk levels during a risk management process.

Keywords: Group process model, risk treatment, risk management, psychosocial.

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Authors: M. Balestrieri, C. Pusceddu

Abstract:

Issues relating to the destructive phenomena that can damage people and goods have returned to the centre of debate in Italy with the increase in catastrophic episodes in recent years in a country which is highly vulnerable to hydrological risk. Environmental factors and geological and geomorphological territorial characteristics play an important role in determining the level of vulnerability and the natural tendency to risk. However, a territory has also been subjected to the requirements of and transformations of society and this brings other relevant factors. The reasons for the increase in destructive phenomena are often to be found in the territorial development models adopted. Stewardship of the landscape and management of risk are related issues. This study aims to summarize the most relevant elements about this connection and at the same time to clarify the role of environmental risk assessment as a tool to aid in the sustainable management of landscape. Finally, the study reflects on how regional and urban planners deal with environmental risk and which aspects should be monitored in order to adopt responsible and useful interventions.

Keywords: Assessment, landscape, risk, planning.

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Authors: Chvalkovska, J., Jansky, P., Mejstrik, M.

Abstract:

The objective of this article is to discuss the potential of economic analysis as a tool for identification and evaluation of corruption in legislative acts. We propose that corruption be perceived as a risk variable within the legislative process. Therefore we find it appropriate to employ risk analysis methods, used in various fields of economics, for the evaluation of corruption in legislation. Furthermore we propose the incorporation of these methods into the so called corruption impact assessment (CIA), the general framework for detection of corruption in legislative acts. The applications of the risk analysis methods are demonstrated on examples of implementation of proposed CIA in the Czech Republic.

Keywords: corruption; corruption impact assessment (CIA); legislative; legislative process; risk analysis; Czech Republic

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Authors: Siti Raihana Hamzah

Abstract:

This paper elaborates risk shifting in debt financing system as the ultimate cause of the global financial crisis. In contrast, risk sharing in equity financing like sukuk helps the economic system to be better sustained. Nevertheless, some types of sukuk are haunted by the issue of imitation with bonds. The critics on the imitation issue not only have raised doubt on the ability of sukuk to diminish risk shifting behavior but also the ability of this Islamic financial instrument to ensure better future financial stability. Through that, this paper provides discussion on the possibility of sukuk to induce risk shifting and how equity financing may help sukuk to be free from risk shifting. This paper is important in the sense that sukuk receives a significant demand from investors throughout the world. For this instrument to be supportive in the future economic stability, the issue of imitation needs to be identified and addressed. Furthermore, critics cannot be focused on debts and its ability to gauge the financial flux but also to sukuk due to their structures similarity.

Keywords: Global financial crisis, debt, risk-shifting, risk sharing, equity, sukuk, bonds.

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Authors: Dariusz Dymek, Leszek Kotulski

Abstract:

Modeling of the distributed systems allows us to represent the whole its functionality. The working system instance rarely fulfils the whole functionality represented by model; usually some parts of this functionality should be accessible periodically. The reporting system based on the Data Warehouse concept seams to be an intuitive example of the system that some of its functionality is required only from time to time. Analyzing an enterprise risk associated with the periodical change of the system functionality, we should consider not only the inaccessibility of the components (object) but also their functions (methods), and the impact of such a situation on the system functionality from the business point of view. In the paper we suggest that the risk attributes should be estimated from risk attributes specified at the requirements level (Use Case in the UML model) on the base of the information about the structure of the model (presented at other levels of the UML model). We argue that it is desirable to consider the influence of periodical changes in requirements on the enterprise risk estimation. Finally, the proposition of such a solution basing on the UML system model is presented.

Keywords: Risk assessing, software maintenance, UML, graph grammars.

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Authors: Ritsuko Kawasaki (Aiba), Takeshi Hiromatsu

Abstract:

Management is required to understand all information security risks within an organization, and to make decisions on which information security risks should be treated in what level by allocating how much amount of cost. However, such decision-making is not usually easy, because various measures for risk treatment must be selected with the suitable application levels. In addition, some measures may have objectives conflicting with each other. It also makes the selection difficult. Moreover, risks generally have trends and it also should be considered in risk treatment. Therefore, this paper provides the extension of the model proposed in the previous study. The original model supports the selection of measures by applying a combination of weighted average method and goal programming method for multi-objective analysis to find an optimal solution. The extended model includes the notion of weights to the risks, and the larger weight means the priority of the risk.

Keywords: Information security risk treatment, Selection of risk measures, Risk acceptanceand Multi-objective optimization.

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Authors: Nur Atiqah Rochin Demong, Jie Lu, Farookh Khadeer Hussain

Abstract:

Property investment in the real estate industry has a high risk due to the uncertainty factors that will affect the decisions made and high cost. Analytic hierarchy process has existed for some time in which referred to an expert-s opinion to measure the uncertainty of the risk factors for the risk analysis. Therefore, different level of experts- experiences will create different opinion and lead to the conflict among the experts in the field. The objective of this paper is to propose a new technique to measure the uncertainty of the risk factors based on multidimensional data model and data mining techniques as deterministic approach. The propose technique consist of a basic framework which includes four modules: user, technology, end-user access tools and applications. The property investment risk analysis defines as a micro level analysis as the features of the property will be considered in the analysis in this paper.

Keywords: Uncertainty factors, data mining, multidimensional data model, risk analysis.

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Authors: Do Hyeung Kim, Dae Hee Seo, Byung Doo Kim, Byung Gil Lee

Abstract:

As many recent researches being implemented in aviation and maritime aspects, strong doubts have been raised concerning the reliability of the estimation of collision risk. It is shown that using position and velocity of objects can lead to imprecise results. In this paper, therefore, a new approach to the estimation of collision risks using pose and shape of objects is proposed. Simulation results are presented validating the accuracy of the new criterion to adapt to collision risk algorithm based on fuzzy logic.

Keywords: Collision risk, Pose and shape, Fuzzy logic.

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Authors: S. Mahalakshmi, B. Senthil Arasu

Abstract:

As per the recent changes happening in the global policies, climate related changes and the impact it causes across every sector are viewed as green swan events – in essence, climate related changes can happen often and lead to risk and lot of uncertainty, but need to be mitigated instead of considering them as black swan events. This brings about a question on how this risk can be computed, so that the financial institutions can plan to mitigate it. Climate related changes impact all risk types – credit risk, market risk, operational risk, liquidity risk, reputational risk and others. And the models required to compute this have to consider the different industrial needs of the counterparty, as well as the factors that are contributing to this – be it in the form of different risk drivers, or the different transmission channels or the different approaches and the granular form of data availability. This brings out to the suggestion that the climate related changes, though it affects Pillar I risks, will be a Pillar II risk. This has to be modeled specifically based on the financial institution’s actual exposure to different industries, instead of generalizing the risk charge. And this will have to be considered as the additional capital to be met by the financial institution in addition to their Pillar I risks, as well as the existing Pillar II risks. In this paper, we present a risk assessment framework to model and assess climate change risks - for both credit and market risks. This framework helps in assessing the different scenarios, and how the different transition risks affect the risk associated with the different parties. This research paper delves on the topic of increase in concentration of greenhouse gases, that in turn causing global warming. It then considers the various scenarios of having the different risk drivers impacting credit and market risk of an institution, by understanding the transmission channels, and also considering the transition risk. The paper then focuses on the industry that’s fast seeing a disruption: automobile industry. The paper uses the framework to show how the climate changes and the change to the relevant policies have impacted the entire financial institution. Appropriate statistical models for forecasting, anomaly detection and scenario modeling are built to demonstrate how the framework can be used by the relevant agencies to understand their financial risks. The paper also focuses on the climate risk calculation for the Pillar II capital calculations, and how it will make sense for the bank to maintain this in addition to their regular Pillar I and Pillar II capital.

Keywords: Capital calculation, climate risk, credit risk, pillar II risk, scenario modeling.

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Authors: Francesco Venuti, Simona Alfiero

Abstract:

The aim of this paper is to develop an empirical research on the nature and consequences of corporate governance on Eurozone Insurance Industry risk taking attitude. More particularly, we analyzed the effect of public ownership on risk taking with respect to privately held Insurance Companies. We also analyzed the effects on risk taking attitude of different degrees of ownership concentration, directors compensation, and the dimension/diversity of the Board of Directors. Our results provide quite strong evidence that, coherently with the Agency Theory, publicly traded insurance companies with more concentrated ownership are less risky than the corresponding privately held.

Keywords: Agency theory, corporate governance, insurance companies, risk taking.

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Authors: Dongdong Zhang, Deran Zhang

Abstract:

In this paper, a Markovian risk model with two-type claims is considered. In such a risk model, the occurrences of the two type claims are described by two point processes {Ni(t), t ¸ 0}, i = 1, 2, where {Ni(t), t ¸ 0} is the number of jumps during the interval (0, t] for the Markov jump process {Xi(t), t ¸ 0} . The ruin probability ª(u) of a company facing such a risk model is mainly discussed. An integral equation satisfied by the ruin probability ª(u) is obtained and the bounds for the convergence rate of the ruin probability ª(u) are given by using key-renewal theorem.

Keywords: Risk model, ruin probability, Markov jump process, integral equation.

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Authors: Ali Serhan Koyuncugil, Nermin Ozgulbas

Abstract:

In this paper, a data mining model to SMEs for detecting financial and operational risk indicators by data mining is presenting. The identification of the risk factors by clarifying the relationship between the variables defines the discovery of knowledge from the financial and operational variables. Automatic and estimation oriented information discovery process coincides the definition of data mining. During the formation of model; an easy to understand, easy to interpret and easy to apply utilitarian model that is far from the requirement of theoretical background is targeted by the discovery of the implicit relationships between the data and the identification of effect level of every factor. In addition, this paper is based on a project which was funded by The Scientific and Technological Research Council of Turkey (TUBITAK).

Keywords: Risk Management, Financial Risk, Operational Risk, Financial Early Warning System, Data Mining, CHAID Decision Tree Algorithm, SMEs.

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Authors: Amirhossein Karamoozian, Desheng Wu, Behzad Abbasnejad

Abstract:

Building information modelling (BIM) is a new technology to enhance the efficiency of project management in the construction industry. In addition to the potential benefits of this useful technology, there are various risks and obstacles to applying it in construction projects. In this study, a decision making approach is presented for risk assessment in BIM adoption in construction projects. Various risk factors of exerting BIM during different phases of the project lifecycle are identified with the help of Delphi method, experts’ opinions and related literature. Afterward, Shannon’s entropy and Fuzzy TOPSIS (Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Situation) are applied to derive priorities of the identified risk factors. Results indicated that lack of knowledge between professional engineers about workflows in BIM and conflict of opinions between different stakeholders are the risk factors with the highest priority.

Keywords: Risk, BIM, Shannon’s entropy, Fuzzy TOPSIS, construction projects.

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Authors: Ritsuko Kawasaki (Aiba), Takeshi Hiromatsu

Abstract:

Management is required to understand all information security risks within an organization, and to make decisions on which information security risks should be treated in what level by allocating how much amount of cost. However, such decision-making is not usually easy, because various measures for risk treatment must be selected with the suitable application levels. In addition, some measures may have objectives conflicting with each other. It also makes the selection difficult. Therefore, this paper provides a model which supports the selection of measures by applying multi-objective analysis to find an optimal solution. Additionally, a list of measures is also provided to make the selection easier and more effective without any leakage of measures.

Keywords: Information security risk treatment, Selection of risk measures, Risk acceptance and Multi-objective optimization.

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Authors: Amirali Shirazibeheshti, Tarik Radwan, Alireza Ettefaghian, Farbod Khanizadeh, George Wilson, Cristina Luca

Abstract:

Anticholinergic medication has been associated with events such as falls, delirium, and cognitive impairment in older patients. To further assess this, anticholinergic burden scores have been developed to quantify risk. A risk model based on clustering was deployed in a healthcare management system to cluster patients into multiple risk groups according to anticholinergic burden scores of multiple medicines prescribed to patients to facilitate clinical decision-making. To do so, anticholinergic burden scores of drugs were extracted from the literature which categorizes the risk on a scale of 1 to 3. Given the patients’ prescription data on the healthcare database, a weighted anticholinergic risk score was derived per patient based on the prescription of multiple anticholinergic drugs. This study was conducted on 300,000 records of patients currently registered with a major regional UK-based healthcare provider. The weighted risk scores were used as inputs to an unsupervised learning algorithm (mean-shift clustering) that groups patients into clusters that represent different levels of anticholinergic risk. This work evaluates the association between the average risk score and measures of socioeconomic status (index of multiple deprivation) and health (index of health and disability). The clustering identifies a group of 15 patients at the highest risk from multiple anticholinergic medication. Our findings show that this group of patients is located within more deprived areas of London compared to the population of other risk groups. Furthermore, the prescription of anticholinergic medicines is more skewed to female than male patients, suggesting that females are more at risk from this kind of multiple medication. The risk may be monitored and controlled in a healthcare management system that is well-equipped with tools implementing appropriate techniques of artificial intelligence.

Keywords: Anticholinergic medication, socioeconomic status, deprivation, clustering, risk analysis.

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