Search results for: risk factor
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 2482

Search results for: risk factor

2422 A Review on Bearing Capacity Factor Nγ of Shallow Foundations with Different Shapes

Authors: S. Taghvamanesh, R. Ziaie Moayed

Abstract:

There are several methods for calculating the bearing capacity factors of foundations and retaining walls. In this paper, the bearing capacity factor Nγ (shape factor) for different types of foundation have been investigated. The formula for bearing capacity on c–φ–γ soil can still be expressed by Terzaghi’s equation except that the bearing capacity factor Nγ depends on the surcharge ratio, and friction angle φ. It is apparent that the value of Nγ increases irregularly with the friction angle of the subsoil, which leads to an excessive increment in Nγ of foundations with larger width. Also, the bearing capacity factor Nγ will significantly decrease with an increase in foundation`s width. It also should be highlighted that the effect of shape and dimension will be less noticeable with a decrease in the relative density of the soil. Hence, the bearing capacity factor Nγ relatively depends on foundation`s width, surcharge and roughness ratio. This paper presents the results of various studies conducted on the bearing capacity factor Nγ of: different types of shallow foundation and foundations with irregular geometry (ring footing, triangular footing, shell foundations and etc.) Further studies on the effect of bearing capacity factor Nγ on mat foundations and the characteristics of this factor with or without consideration for the presence of friction between soil and foundation are recommended.

Keywords: Bearing capacity, Bearing capacity factor, irregular foundation, shallow foundation.

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2421 Analyzing Current Transformers Saturation Characteristics for Different Connected Burden Using LabVIEW Data Acquisition Tool

Authors: D. Subedi, S. Pradhan

Abstract:

Current transformers are an integral part of power system because it provides a proportional safe amount of current for protection and measurement applications. However, when the power system experiences an abnormal situation leading to huge current flow, then this huge current is proportionally injected to the protection and metering circuit. Since the protection and metering equipment’s are designed to withstand only certain amount of current with respect to time, these high currents pose a risk to man and equipment. Therefore, during such instances, the CT saturation characteristics have a huge influence on the safety of both man and equipment and on the reliability of the protection and metering system. This paper shows the effect of burden on the Accuracy Limiting factor/ Instrument security factor of current transformers and the change in saturation characteristics of the CT’s. The response of the CT to varying levels of overcurrent at different connected burden will be captured using the data acquisition software LabVIEW. Analysis is done on the real time data gathered using LabVIEW. Variation of current transformer saturation characteristics with changes in burden will be discussed.

Keywords: Accuracy limiting factor, burden, current transformer, instrument security factor, saturation characteristics.

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2420 The Risk Assessment of Cancer Risk during Normal Operation of Tehran Research Reactor Due to Radioactive Gas Emission

Authors: B. Salmasian, A. Rabiee, T. Yousefzadeh

Abstract:

In this research, the risk assessment of radiation hazard for the Research Nuclear Reactor has been studied. In the current study, the MCNPx computational code has been used and coupled with a developed program using MATLAB software to evaluate Total Effective Dose Equivalent (TEDE) and cancer risk according to the BEIR equations for various human organs. In this study, the risk assessment of cancer has been calculated for ten years after exposure, in each of body organs of different ages and sexes. Also, the risk assessment of cancer has been calculated in each of body organs of different ages and sexes due to exposure after the retirement of the reactor staff. According to obtained results, a conservative whole-body dose rate, during a year, is 0.261 Sv and the probability the cancer risk for women is more than men and for children is more than adults. It has been shown that thyroid cancer was more possible than others.

Keywords: MCNPx code, BEIR equation, equivalent dose, risk analysis.

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2419 The Relationship between Personality Characteristics and Driving Behavior

Authors: Bahram Esmaeili, Hamid Reza Imani Far, Hossein Hosseini, Mohammad Sharifi

Abstract:

The present study investigated the relationship between personality characteristics of drivers and the number and amount of fines they have in a year .This study was carried out on 120 male taxi drivers that worked at least seven hours in a day in Lamerd - a city in the south of IRAN. Subjects were chosen voluntarily among those available. Predictive variables were the NEO –five great personality factors (1. conscientiousness 2. Openness to Experience 3.Neuroticism4 .Extraversion 5.Agreeableness ) thecriterion variables were the number and amount of fines the drivers have had the last three years. the result of regression analysis showed that conscientiousness factor was able to negatively predict the number and amount of financial fines the drivers had during the last three years. The openness factor positively predicted the number of fines they had in last 3 years and the amount of financial fines during the last year. The extraversion factor both meaningfully and positively could predict only the amount of financial fines they had during the last year. Increasing age was associated with decreasing driving offenses as well as financial loss.The findings can be useful in recognizing the high-risk drivers and leading them to counseling centers .They can also be used to inform the drivers about their personality and it’s relation with their accident rate. Such criteria would be of great importance in employing drivers in different places such as companies, offices etc…

Keywords: drivers, financial fines, neo five-factor personality

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2418 Risk Quantification for Tunnel Excavation Process

Authors: J. Šejnoha, D. Jarušková, O. Špačková, E. Novotná

Abstract:

Construction of tunnels is connected with high uncertainty in the field of costs, construction period, safety and impact on surroundings. Risk management became therefore a common part of tunnel projects, especially after a set of fatal collapses occurred in 1990's. Such collapses are caused usually by combination of factors that can be divided into three main groups, i.e. unfavourable geological conditions, failures in the design and planning or failures in the execution. This paper suggests a procedure enabling quantification of the excavation risk related to extraordinary accidents using FTA and ETA tools. It will elaborate on a common process of risk analysis and enable the transfer of information and experience between particular tunnel construction projects. Further, it gives a guide for designers, management and other participants, how to deal with risk of such accidents and how to make qualified decisions based on a probabilistic approach.

Keywords: risk quantification, tunnel collapse, ETA, FTA, geotechnical risk

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2417 Health Risk Assessment of Trihalogenmethanes in Drinking Water

Authors: Lenka Jesonkova, Frantisek Bozek

Abstract:

Trihalogenmethanes (THMs) are disinfection byproducts with non-carcinogenic and genotoxic effects. The contamination of 6 sites close to the water treatment plant has been monitored in second largest city of the Czech Republic. Health risk assessment including both non-carcinogenic and genotoxic risk for long term exposition was realized using the critical concentrations. Concentrations of trihalogenmethanes met national standards in all samples. Risk assessment proved that health risks from trihalogenmethanes are acceptable on each site.

Keywords: Drinking water, health risk assessment, trihalogenmethanes, water pollution.

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2416 Strategic Risk Issues for Film Distributors of Hindi Film Industry in Mumbai: A Grounded Theory Approach

Authors: R. Dyondi, S. K. Jha

Abstract:

The purpose of the paper is to address the strategic risk issues surrounding Hindi film distribution in Mumbai for a film distributor, who acts as an entrepreneur when launching a product (movie) in the market (film territory).The paper undertakes a fundamental review of films and risk in the Hindi film industry and applies Grounded Theory technique to understand the complex phenomena of risk taking behavior of the film distributors (both independent and studios) in Mumbai. Rich in-depth interviews with distributors are coded to develop core categories through constant comparison leading to conceptualization of the phenomena of interest. This paper is a first-of-its-kind-attempt to understand risk behavior of a distributor, which is akin to entrepreneurial risk behavior under conditions of uncertainty.

Keywords: Entrepreneurial Risk Behavior, Film Distribution Strategy, Hindi Film Industry, Risk.

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2415 A Mixed Approach to Assess Information System Risk, Operational Risk, and Congolese Microfinance Institutions Performance

Authors: Alfred Kamate Siviri, Angelus Mafikiri Tsongo, Jean Robert Kala Kamdjoug

Abstract:

Well organized digitalization and information systems have been selected as relevant measures to mitigate operational risks within organizations. Unfortunately, information system comes with new threats that can cause severe damage and quick organization lockout. This study aims to measure perceived information system risks and their effects on operational risks within the microfinance institution in D.R. Congo. Also, the factors influencing the operational risk are to be identified, and the link between operational risk with other risks and performance is to be assessed. The study proposes a research model drawn on the combination of Resources-Based-View, dynamic capabilities, the agency theory, the Information System Security Model, and social theories of risk. Therefore, we suggest adopting a mixed methods research with the sole aim of increasing the literature that already exists on perceived operational risk assessment and its link with other risk and performance, with a focus on information system risks.

Keywords: information system risk, operational risk, microfinance performance, DR Congo

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2414 Copper Contamination in the Sediments of Northern Kaohsiung Harbor, Taiwan

Authors: Chiu-Wen Chen, Chih-Feng Chen, Cheng-Di Dong

Abstract:

The distribution, enrichment, accumulation, and potential ecological risk of copper (Cu) in the surface sediments of northern Kaohsiung Harbor, Taiwan were investigated. Sediment samples from 12 locations of northern Kaohsiung Harbor were collected and characterized for Cu, aluminum, water content, organic matter, total nitrogen, total phosphorous, total grease and grain size. Results showed that the Cu concentrations varied from 6.9–244 mg/kg with an average of 109±66 mg/kg. The spatial distribution of Cu reveals that the Cu concentration is relatively high in the river mouth region, and gradually diminishes toward the harbor entrance region. This indicates that upstream industrial and municipal wastewater discharges along the river bank are major sources of Cu pollution. Results from the enrichment factor and geo-accumulation index analyses imply that the sediments collected from the river mouth can be characterized between moderate and moderately severe degree enrichment and between none to medium and moderate accumulation of Cu, respectively. However, results of potential ecological risk index indicate that the sediment has low ecological potential risk.

Keywords: Accumulation, ecological risk, enrichment, copper, sediment.

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2413 The Underestimation of Cultural Risk in the Execution of Megaprojects

Authors: Alan Walsh, Peter Walker, Michael Ellis

Abstract:

There is a real danger that both practitioners and researchers considering risks associated with megaprojects ignore or underestimate the impacts of cultural risk. The paper investigates the potential impacts of a failure to achieve cultural unity between the principal actors executing a megaproject. The principle relationships include the relationships between the principle Contractors and the project stakeholders or the project stakeholders and their principle advisors, Western Consultants. This study confirms that cultural dissonance between these parties can delay or disrupt the megaproject execution and examines why cultural issues should be prioritized as a significant risk factor in megaproject delivery. This paper addresses the practical impacts and potential mitigation measures, which may reduce cultural dissonance for a megaproject's delivery. This information is retrieved from on-going case studies in live infrastructure megaprojects in Europe and the Middle East's GCC states, from Western Consultants' perspective. The collaborating researchers each have at least 30 years of construction experience and are engaged in architecture, project management and contracts management, dealing with megaprojects in Europe or the GCC. After examining the cultural interfaces they have observed during the execution of megaprojects, they conclude that globally, culture significantly influences their efficient delivery. The study finds that cultural risk is ever-present, where different nationalities co-manage megaprojects and that cultural conflict poses a real threat to the timely delivery of megaprojects. The study indicates that the higher the cultural distance between the principal actors, the more pronounced the risk, with the risk of cultural dissonance more prominent in GCC megaprojects. The findings support a more culturally aware and cohesive team approach and recommend cross-cultural training to mitigate the effects of cultural disparity.

Keywords: Cultural risk underestimation, cultural distance, megaproject characteristics, megaproject execution.

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2412 The Impact of Recommendation Sources on Online Purchase Intentions: The Moderating Effects of Gender and Perceived Risk

Authors: Chiao-Chen Chang, Yang-Chieh Chin

Abstract:

This study examines the issue of recommendation sources from the perspectives of gender and consumers- perceived risk, and validates a model for the antecedents of consumer online purchases. The method of obtaining quantitative data was that of the instrument of a survey questionnaire. Data were collected via questionnaires from 396 undergraduate students aged 18-24, and a multiple regression analysis was conducted to identify causal relationships. Empirical findings established the link between recommendation sources (word-of-mouth, advertising, and recommendation systems) and the likelihood of making online purchases and demonstrated the role of gender and perceived risk as moderators in this context. The results showed that the effects of word-of-mouth on online purchase intentions were stronger than those of advertising and recommendation systems. In addition, female consumers have less experience with online purchases, so they may be more likely than males to refer to recommendations during the decision-making process. The findings of the study will help marketers to address the recommendation factor which influences consumers- intention to purchase and to improve firm performances to meet consumer needs.

Keywords: Recommendation sources, Online purchaseintentions, Gender differences, Perceived risk.

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2411 A Study of Relationship between Mountaineering Participation Motivation and Risk Perception

Authors: Yen-Chieh Wen, Ching-Hui Lin

Abstract:

The main purpose of this study is to analyze climbers involved in motivation and risk perception and analysis of the predictive ability of the risk perception "mountaineering" involved in motivation. This study used questionnaires, to have to climb the 3000m high mountain in Taiwan climbers object to carry out an investigation in order to non-random sampling, a total of 231 valid questionnaires were. After statistical analysis, the study found that: 1. Climbers the highest climbers involved in motivation "to enjoy the natural beauty of the fun. 2 climbers for climbers "risk perception" the highest: the natural environment of risk. 3. Climbers “seeking adventure stimulate", “competence achievement" motivation highly predictive of risk perception. Based on these findings, this study not only practices the recommendations of the outdoor leisure industry, and also related research proposals for future researchers.

Keywords: Mountaineering, motivation, risk perception, decision-making.

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2410 The Impact of Financial Risks on Profitability of Malaysian Commercial Banks: 1996-2005

Authors: Fauziah Hanim Tafri, Zarinah Hamid, Ahamed Kameel Mydin Meera, Mohd Azmi Omar

Abstract:

This paper examines the relationship between financial risks and profitability of the conventional and Islamic banks in Malaysia for the period between 1996 and 2005. The measures of profitability that have been used in the study are the return on equity (ROE) and return on assets (ROA) while the financial risks are credit risk, interest rate risk and liquidity risks. This study employs panel data regression analysis of Generalised Least Squares of fixed effects and random effects models. It was found that credit risk has a significant impact on ROA and ROE for the conventional as well as the Islamic banks. The relationship between interest rate risk and ROE were found to be weakly significant for the conventional banks and insignificant for the Islamic banks. The effect of interest rate risk on ROA is significant for the conventional banks. Liquidity risk was found to have an insignificant impact on both profitability measures.

Keywords: Credit risk, interest rate risk, liquidity risk, market risk, profitability.

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2409 Energy Efficiency Testing of Fluorescent and WOLED (White Organic LED)

Authors: Hari Maghfiroh, Harry Prabowo

Abstract:

WOLED is widely used as lighting for high efficacy and little power consumption. In this research, power factor testing between WOLED and fluorescent lamp to see which one is more efficient in consuming energy. Since both lamps use semiconductor components, so calculation of the power factor need to consider the effects of harmonics. Harmonic make bigger losses. The study is conducted by comparing the value of the power factor regardless of harmonics (DPF) and also by included the harmonics (TPF). The average value of DPF of fluorescent is 0.953 while WOLED is 0.972. The average value of TPF of fluorescent is 0.717 whereas WOLED is 0.933. So from the review of power factor WOLED is more energy efficient than fluorescent lamp.

Keywords: Fluorescent, harmonic, power factor, WOLED.

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2408 The Wijma Delivery Expectancy/Experience Questionnaire (W-DEQ) with Turkish Sample: Confirmatory and Exploratory Factor Analysis

Authors: Oznur Korukcu, Kamile Kukulu, Mehmet Z. Firat

Abstract:

The propose of this study is to investigate the factor structures of the W-DEQ, originally developed on UK and Swedish women, were confirmed in Turkish samples, and to obtain a new modified factor structure appropriate to Turkish culture. Statistical analyses of the data obtained were performed using SPSS© for Windows version 13.0 and the SAS statistical software Version 9.1. Both confirmatory and exploratory factor analysis of W-DEQ were performed in the study. Factor analysis yielded four factors related to hope, fear, lack of positive anticipation and riskiness. The alpha estimates of the total W-DEQ score were somewhat higher, being 0.92 for the parous and 0.90 for the nulliparous sample. These are well above the accepted limit of 0.70 and indicate excellent levels of internal reliability, thus showing that the questions were appropriate to the Turkish culture and useful scale for the evaluation of fear of childbirth in Turkish pregnants.

Keywords: Confirmatory factor analysis, cross-cultural research, exploratory factor analysis, fear of childbirth.

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2407 Deficiency Risk in Islamic and Conventional Banks

Authors: Korbi Fakhri

Abstract:

In this article, we have elaborated a study over the nature of financial intermediation in Islamic banks by comparison to those of conventional ones. We have found a striking difference between two kinds of intermediation. We tried, from another side, to study the relationship between the capital level and deficiency risk relying on econometric model, and we have obtained a positive and significant relation between the capital and the deficiency risk for the conventional banks. This means that when the capital of these banks increases, the deficiency risk increases as well. In return, since the Islamic banks are constrained to respect the Sharia Committee as well as customers’ demands that may, in certain contracts, choose to invest their capitals in projects they are interested in. These constraints have as effects to reduce the deficiency risk even when the capital increases.

Keywords: Conventional bank, deficiency risk, financial intermediation, Islamic bank.

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2406 Evaluation of Behavior Factor for Steel Moment-Resisting Frames

Authors: Taïeb Branci, Djamal Yahmi, Abdelhamid Bouchair, Eric Fourneley

Abstract:

According to current seismic codes the structures are calculated using the capacity design procedure based on the concept of shear at the base depending on several parameters including behavior factor which is considered to be the most important parameter. The behavior factor allows designing the structure when it is at its ultimate limit state taking into account its energy dissipation through its plastic deformation. The aim of the present study is to assess the basic parameters on which is composed the behavior factor among them the reduction factor due to ductility, and those due to redundancy and the overstrength for steel moment-resisting frames of different heights and regular configuration. Analyses are conducted on these frames using the nonlinear static method where the effect of some parameters on the behavior factor, such as the number of stories and the number of spans, are taken into account. The results show that the behavior factor is rather sensitive to the variation of the number of stories and bays.

Keywords: Behavior, code, frame, ductility, overstrength, redundancy, plastic.

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2405 Feasibility of Risk Assessment for Type 2 Diabetes in Community Pharmacies Using Two Different Approaches: A Pilot Study in Thailand

Authors: Thitaporn Thoopputra, Tipaporn Pongmesa, Shuchuen Li

Abstract:

Aims: To evaluate the application of non-invasive diabetes risk assessment tool in community pharmacy setting. Methods: Thai diabetes risk score was applied to assess individuals at risk of developing type 2 diabetes. Interactive computer-based risk screening (IT) and paper-based risk screening (PT) tools were applied. Participants aged over 25 years with no known diabetes were recruited in six participating pharmacies. Results: A total of 187 clients, mean aged (+SD) was 48.6 (+10.9) years. 35% were at high risk. The mean value of willingness-to-pay for the service fee in IT group was significantly higher than PT group (p=0.013). No significant difference observed for the satisfaction between groups. Conclusions: Non-invasive risk assessment tool, whether paper-based or computerized-based can be applied in community pharmacy to support the enhancing role of pharmacists in chronic disease management. Long term follow up is needed to determine the impact of its application in clinical, humanistic and economic outcomes.

Keywords: Community pharmacy, intervention, prevention, risk assessment, type 2 diabetes.

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2404 Information Security Risk in Financial Institutions

Authors: James A. Nelson

Abstract:

The history of technology and banking is examined as it relates to risk and technological determinism. It is proposed that the services that banks offer are determined by technology and that banks must adopt new technologies to be competitive. The adoption of technologies paradoxically forces the adoption of other new technologies to protect the bank from the increased risk of technology. This cycle will lead to bank examiners and regulators to focus on human behavior, not on the ever changing technology.

Keywords: Banking, information security, risk, technologicaldeterminism.

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2403 Security Risk Analysis Based on the Policy Formalization and the Modeling of Big Systems

Authors: Luc Cessieux, French Navy, Adrien Derock, DCNS/IMATH

Abstract:

Security risk models have been successful in estimating the likelihood of attack for simple security threats. However, modeling complex system and their security risk is even a challenge. Many methods have been proposed to face this problem. Often difficult to manipulate, and not enough all-embracing they are not as famous as they should with administrators and deciders. We propose in this paper a new tool to model big systems on purpose. The software, takes into account attack threats and security strength.

Keywords: Security, risk management, threat, modelization.

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2402 Risk Classification of SMEs by Early Warning Model Based on Data Mining

Authors: Nermin Ozgulbas, Ali Serhan Koyuncugil

Abstract:

One of the biggest problems of SMEs is their tendencies to financial distress because of insufficient finance background. In this study, an Early Warning System (EWS) model based on data mining for financial risk detection is presented. CHAID algorithm has been used for development of the EWS. Developed EWS can be served like a tailor made financial advisor in decision making process of the firms with its automated nature to the ones who have inadequate financial background. Besides, an application of the model implemented which covered 7,853 SMEs based on Turkish Central Bank (TCB) 2007 data. By using EWS model, 31 risk profiles, 15 risk indicators, 2 early warning signals, and 4 financial road maps has been determined for financial risk mitigation.

Keywords: Early Warning Systems, Data Mining, Financial Risk, SMEs.

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2401 Gender Differences in Risk Aversion Behavior: Case Study of Saudi Arabia and Jordan

Authors: Razan Salem

Abstract:

Men and women have different approaches towards investing, both in terms of strategies and risk attitudes. This study aims to focus mainly on investigating the financial risk behaviors of Arab women investors and to examine the financial risk tolerance levels of Arab women relative to Arab men investors. Using survey data on 547 Arab men and women investors, the results of Wilcoxon Signed-Rank (One-Sample) test Mann-Whitney U test reveal that Arab women are risk-averse investors and have lower financial risk tolerance levels relative to Arab men. Such findings can be explained by the fact of women's nature and lower investment literacy levels. Further, the current political uncertainty in the Arab region may be considered as another explanation of Arab women’s risk aversion behavior. The study's findings support the existing literature by validating the stereotype of “women are more risk-averse than men” in the Arab region. Overall, when it comes to investment and financial behaviors, women around the world behave similarly.

Keywords: Arab region, financial risk behavior, gender differences, women investors.

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2400 Combined Safety and Cybersecurity Risk Assessment for Intelligent Distributed Grids

Authors: Anders Thorsèn, Behrooz Sangchoolie, Peter Folkesson, Ted Strandberg

Abstract:

As more parts of the power grid become connected to the internet, the risk of cyberattacks increases. To identify the cybersecurity threats and subsequently reduce vulnerabilities, the common practice is to carry out a cybersecurity risk assessment. For safety classified systems and products, there is also a need for safety risk assessments in addition to the cybersecurity risk assessment to identify and reduce safety risks. These two risk assessments are usually done separately, but since cybersecurity and functional safety are often related, a more comprehensive method covering both aspects is needed. Some work addressing this has been done for specific domains like the automotive domain, but more general methods suitable for, e.g., Intelligent Distributed Grids, are still missing. One such method from the automotive domain is the Security-Aware Hazard Analysis and Risk Assessment (SAHARA) method that combines safety and cybersecurity risk assessments. This paper presents an approach where the SAHARA method has been modified to be more suitable for larger distributed systems. The adapted SAHARA method has a more general risk assessment approach than the original SAHARA. The proposed method has been successfully applied on two use cases of an intelligent distributed grid.

Keywords: Intelligent distribution grids, threat analysis, risk assessment, safety, cybersecurity.

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2399 A Neighborhood Condition for Fractional k-deleted Graphs

Authors: Sizhong Zhou, Hongxia Liu

Abstract:

Abstract–Let k ≥ 3 be an integer, and let G be a graph of order n with n ≥ 9k +3- 42(k - 1)2 + 2. Then a spanning subgraph F of G is called a k-factor if dF (x) = k for each x ∈ V (G). A fractional k-factor is a way of assigning weights to the edges of a graph G (with all weights between 0 and 1) such that for each vertex the sum of the weights of the edges incident with that vertex is k. A graph G is a fractional k-deleted graph if there exists a fractional k-factor after deleting any edge of G. In this paper, it is proved that G is a fractional k-deleted graph if G satisfies δ(G) ≥ k + 1 and |NG(x) ∪ NG(y)| ≥ 1 2 (n + k - 2) for each pair of nonadjacent vertices x, y of G.

Keywords: Graph, minimum degree, neighborhood union, fractional k-factor, fractional k-deleted graph.

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2398 Statistical Analysis-Driven Risk Assessment of Criteria Air Pollutants: A Sulfur Dioxide Case Study

Authors: Ehsan Bashiri

Abstract:

A 7-step method (with 25 sub-steps) to assess risk of air pollutants is introduced. These steps are: pre-considerations, sampling, statistical analysis, exposure matrix and likelihood, doseresponse matrix and likelihood, total risk evaluation, and discussion of findings. All mentioned words and expressions are wellunderstood; however, almost all steps have been modified, improved, and coupled in such a way that a comprehensive method has been prepared. Accordingly, the SADRA (Statistical Analysis-Driven Risk Assessment) emphasizes extensive and ongoing application of analytical statistics in traditional risk assessment models. A Sulfur Dioxide case study validates the claim and provides a good illustration for this method.

Keywords: Criteria air pollutants, Matrix of risk, Riskassessment, Statistical analysis.

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2397 Cognitive Weighted Polymorphism Factor: A Comprehension Augmented Complexity Metric

Authors: T. Francis Thamburaj, A. Aloysius

Abstract:

Polymorphism is one of the main pillars of objectoriented paradigm. It induces hidden forms of class dependencies which may impact software quality, resulting in higher cost factor for comprehending, debugging, testing, and maintaining the software. In this paper, a new cognitive complexity metric called Cognitive Weighted Polymorphism Factor (CWPF) is proposed. Apart from the software structural complexity, it includes the cognitive complexity on the basis of type. The cognitive weights are calibrated based on 27 empirical studies with 120 persons. A case study and experimentation of the new software metric shows positive results. Further, a comparative study is made and the correlation test has proved that CWPF complexity metric is a better, more comprehensive, and more realistic indicator of the software complexity than Abreu’s Polymorphism Factor (PF) complexity metric.

Keywords: Cognitive complexity metric, cognitive weighted polymorphism factor, object-oriented metrics, polymorphism factor, software metrics.

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2396 Overview of Risk Management in Electricity Markets Using Financial Derivatives

Authors: Aparna Viswanath

Abstract:

Electricity spot prices are highly volatile under optimal generation capacity scenarios due to factors such as nonstorability of electricity, peak demand at certain periods, generator outages, fuel uncertainty for renewable energy generators, huge investments and time needed for generation capacity expansion etc. As a result market participants are exposed to price and volume risk, which has led to the development of risk management practices. This paper provides an overview of risk management practices by market participants in electricity markets using financial derivatives.

Keywords: Financial Derivatives, Forward, Futures, Options, Risk Management.

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2395 Effective Methodology for Security Risk Assessment of Computer Systems

Authors: Daniel F. García, Adrián Fernández

Abstract:

Today, computer systems are more and more complex and support growing security risks. The security managers need to find effective security risk assessment methodologies that allow modeling well the increasing complexity of current computer systems but also maintaining low the complexity of the assessment procedure. This paper provides a brief analysis of common security risk assessment methodologies leading to the selection of a proper methodology to fulfill these requirements. Then, a detailed analysis of the most effective methodology is accomplished, presenting numerical examples to demonstrate how easy it is to use.

Keywords: Computer security, qualitative and quantitative methods, risk assessment methodologies, security risk assessment.

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2394 Stock Characteristics and Herding Formation: Evidence from the United States Equity Market

Authors: Chih-Hsiang Chang, Fang-Jyun Su

Abstract:

This paper explores whether stock characteristics influence the herding formation among investors in the US equity market. To extend the research scope of the existing literature, this paper further examines the role that stock risk characteristics play in the US equity market, and the way they influence investors’ decision-making. First, empirical results show that whether general stocks or high-risk stocks, there are no herding behaviors among the investors in the US equity market during the whole research period or during four great events. Moreover, stock characteristics have great influence on investors’ trading decisions. Finally, there is a bidirectional lead-lag relationship of the herding formation between high-risk stocks and low-risk stocks, but the influence of high-risk stocks on the low-risk stocks is stronger than that of low-risk stocks on the high-risk stocks.

Keywords: Stock characteristics, herding formation, investment decision, US equity market, lead-lag relationship.

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2393 Development of Risk-Based Ambient Air Quality Standards in the Russian Federation on the Basis of Risk Assessment Procedures Harmonized with International Approaches

Authors: Nina V. Zaitseva, Pavel Z. Shur, Nina G. Atiskova

Abstract:

Nowadays harmonization of sanitary and hygienic standards of environmental quality with international standards is crucial part of integration of Russia into the international community. Harmonization of Russian and international ambient air quality standards may be realized by risk-based standards development. In this paper approaches to risk-based standards development and examples of these approaches implementation are presented.

Keywords: Harmonization, health risk assessment, evolutionary modelling, benchmark level, nickel, manganese.

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