Search results for: prediction mechanism.
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 1929

Search results for: prediction mechanism.

1749 Software Maintenance Severity Prediction with Soft Computing Approach

Authors: E. Ardil, Erdem Uçar, Parvinder S. Sandhu

Abstract:

As the majority of faults are found in a few of its modules so there is a need to investigate the modules that are affected severely as compared to other modules and proper maintenance need to be done on time especially for the critical applications. In this paper, we have explored the different predictor models to NASA-s public domain defect dataset coded in Perl programming language. Different machine learning algorithms belonging to the different learner categories of the WEKA project including Mamdani Based Fuzzy Inference System and Neuro-fuzzy based system have been evaluated for the modeling of maintenance severity or impact of fault severity. The results are recorded in terms of Accuracy, Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE). The results show that Neuro-fuzzy based model provides relatively better prediction accuracy as compared to other models and hence, can be used for the maintenance severity prediction of the software.

Keywords: Software Metrics, Fuzzy, Neuro-Fuzzy, SoftwareFaults, Accuracy, MAE, RMSE.

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1748 Mathematical modeling of Bi-Substrate Enzymatic Reactions with Ping-Pong Mechanism in the Presence of Competitive Inhibitors

Authors: Rafayel A. Azizyan, Aram E. Gevogyan, Valeri B. Arakelyan, Emil S. Gevorgyan

Abstract:

The mathematical modeling of different biological processes is usually used to predict or assess behavior of systems in which these processes take place. This study deals with mathematical and computer modeling of bi-substrate enzymatic reactions with ping-pong mechanism, which play an important role in different biochemical pathways. Besides that, three models of competitive inhibition were designed using different software packages. The main objective of this study is to represent the results from in silico investigation of bi-substrate enzymatic reactions with ordered pingpong mechanism in the presence of competitive inhibitors, as well as to describe in details the inhibition effects. The simulation of the models with certain kinetic parameters allowed investigating the behavior of reactions as well as determined some interesting aspects concerning influence of different cases of competitive inhibition. Simultaneous presence of two inhibitors, competitive to the S1 and S2 substrates have been studied. Moreover, we have found the pattern of simultaneous influence of both inhibitors.

Keywords: Mathematical modeling, bi-substrate enzymatic reactions, ping-pong mechanism, competitive inhibition.

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1747 Energy Separation Mechanism in Uni-Flow Vortex Tube Using Compressible Vortex Flow

Authors: Hiroshi Katanoda, Mohd Hazwan bin Yusof

Abstract:

A theoretical investigation from the view point of gas-dynamics and thermodynamics was carried out, in order to clarify the energy separation mechanism in a viscous compressible vortex, as a primary flow element in a uni-flow vortex tube. The mathematical solutions of tangential velocity, density and temperature in a viscous compressible vortical flow were used in this study.It is clear that a total temperature in the vortex core falls well below that distant from the vortex core in the radial direction, causing aregion with higher total temperature,compared to the distant region,peripheral to the vortex core.

Keywords: Energy separation mechanism, theoretical analysis, vortex tube, vortical flow.

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1746 The Effect of Maximum Strain on Fatigue Life Prediction for Natural Rubber Material

Authors: Chang S. Woo, Hyun S. Park, Wan D. Kim

Abstract:

Fatigue life prediction and evaluation are the key technologies to assure the safety and reliability of automotive rubber components. The objective of this study is to develop the fatigue analysis process for vulcanized rubber components, which is applicable to predict fatigue life at initial product design step. Fatigue life prediction methodology of vulcanized natural rubber was proposed by incorporating the finite element analysis and fatigue damage parameter of maximum strain appearing at the critical location determined from fatigue test. In order to develop an appropriate fatigue damage parameter of the rubber material, a series of displacement controlled fatigue test was conducted using threedimensional dumbbell specimen with different levels of mean displacement. It was shown that the maximum strain was a proper damage parameter, taking the mean displacement effects into account. Nonlinear finite element analyses of three-dimensional dumbbell specimens were performed based on a hyper-elastic material model determined from the uni-axial tension, equi-biaxial tension and planar test. Fatigue analysis procedure employed in this study could be used approximately for the fatigue design.

Keywords: Rubber, Material test, Finite element analysis, Strain, Fatigue test, Fatigue life prediction.

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1745 Virulent-GO: Prediction of Virulent Proteins in Bacterial Pathogens Utilizing Gene Ontology Terms

Authors: Chia-Ta Tsai, Wen-Lin Huang, Shinn-Jang Ho, Li-Sun Shu, Shinn-Ying Ho

Abstract:

Prediction of bacterial virulent protein sequences can give assistance to identification and characterization of novel virulence-associated factors and discover drug/vaccine targets against proteins indispensable to pathogenicity. Gene Ontology (GO) annotation which describes functions of genes and gene products as a controlled vocabulary of terms has been shown effectively for a variety of tasks such as gene expression study, GO annotation prediction, protein subcellular localization, etc. In this study, we propose a sequence-based method Virulent-GO by mining informative GO terms as features for predicting bacterial virulent proteins. Each protein in the datasets used by the existing method VirulentPred is annotated by using BLAST to obtain its homologies with known accession numbers for retrieving GO terms. After investigating various popular classifiers using the same five-fold cross-validation scheme, Virulent-GO using the single kind of GO term features with an accuracy of 82.5% is slightly better than VirulentPred with 81.8% using five kinds of sequence-based features. For the evaluation of independent test, Virulent-GO also yields better results (82.0%) than VirulentPred (80.7%). When evaluating single kind of feature with SVM, the GO term feature performs much well, compared with each of the five kinds of features.

Keywords: Bacterial virulence factors, GO terms, prediction, protein sequence.

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1744 Mechanisms of Ginger Bioactive Compounds Extract Using Soxhlet and Accelerated Water Extraction

Authors: M. N. Azian, A. N. Ilia Anisa, Y. Iwai

Abstract:

The mechanism for extraction bioactive compounds from plant matrix is essential for optimizing the extraction process. As a benchmark technique, a soxhlet extraction has been utilized for discussing the mechanism and compared with an accelerated water extraction. The trends of both techniques show that the process involves extraction and degradation. The highest yields of 6-, 8-, 10-gingerols and 6-shogaol in soxhlet extraction were 13.948, 7.12, 10.312 and 2.306 mg/g, respectively. The optimum 6-, 8-, 10-gingerols and 6-shogaol extracted by the accelerated water extraction at 140oC were 68.97±3.95 mg/g at 3min, 18.98±3.04 mg/g at 5min, 5.167±2.35 mg/g at 3min and 14.57±6.27 mg/g at 3min, respectively. The effect of temperature at 3mins shows that the concentration of 6-shogaol increased rapidly as decreasing the recovery of 6-gingerol.

Keywords: Mechanism, bioactive compounds, soxhlet extraction, accelerated water extraction.

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1743 Hydrodynamic Characteristics of Weis–Fogh Type Ship-s Propulsion Mechanism Having Elastic Wing

Authors: K. D. Ro, J. T. Park, J. H. Kim

Abstract:

This experiment was conducted in attempt of improving hydrodynamic efficiency of the propulsion mechanism by installing a spring to the wing so that the opening angle of the wing in one stroke can be changed automatically, compared to the existing method of fixed maximum opening angle in Weis-Fogh type ship propulsion mechanism. Average thrust coefficient was almost fixed with all velocity ratio with the prototype, but with the spring type, thrust coefficient increased sharply as velocity ratio increased. Average propulsive efficiency was larger with bigger opening angle in the prototype, but in the spring type, the one with smaller spring coefficient had larger value. In the range over 1.0 in velocity ratio where big thrust can be generated, spring type had more than twice of propulsive efficiency increase compared to the prototype.

Keywords: Hydraulic Machine, Propulsion Mechanism, FluidForce, Elastic Wing.

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1742 Performance Evaluation of Neural Network Prediction for Data Prefetching in Embedded Applications

Authors: Sofien Chtourou, Mohamed Chtourou, Omar Hammami

Abstract:

Embedded systems need to respect stringent real time constraints. Various hardware components included in such systems such as cache memories exhibit variability and therefore affect execution time. Indeed, a cache memory access from an embedded microprocessor might result in a cache hit where the data is available or a cache miss and the data need to be fetched with an additional delay from an external memory. It is therefore highly desirable to predict future memory accesses during execution in order to appropriately prefetch data without incurring delays. In this paper, we evaluate the potential of several artificial neural networks for the prediction of instruction memory addresses. Neural network have the potential to tackle the nonlinear behavior observed in memory accesses during program execution and their demonstrated numerous hardware implementation emphasize this choice over traditional forecasting techniques for their inclusion in embedded systems. However, embedded applications execute millions of instructions and therefore millions of addresses to be predicted. This very challenging problem of neural network based prediction of large time series is approached in this paper by evaluating various neural network architectures based on the recurrent neural network paradigm with pre-processing based on the Self Organizing Map (SOM) classification technique.

Keywords: Address, data set, memory, prediction, recurrentneural network.

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1741 Design of an Stable GPC for Nonminimum Phase LTI Systems

Authors: Mahdi Yaghobi, Mohammad Haeri

Abstract:

The current methods of predictive controllers are utilized for those processes in which the rate of output variations is not high. For such processes, therefore, stability can be achieved by implementing the constrained predictive controller or applying infinite prediction horizon. When the rate of the output growth is high (e.g. for unstable nonminimum phase process) the stabilization seems to be problematic. In order to avoid this, it is suggested to change the method in the way that: first, the prediction error growth should be decreased at the early stage of the prediction horizon, and second, the rate of the error variation should be penalized. The growth of the error is decreased through adjusting its weighting coefficients in the cost function. Reduction in the error variation is possible by adding the first order derivate of the error into the cost function. By studying different examples it is shown that using these two remedies together, the closed-loop stability of unstable nonminimum phase process can be achieved.

Keywords: GPC, Stability, Varying Weighting Coefficients.

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1740 Multi-Agent Searching Adaptation Using Levy Flight and Inferential Reasoning

Authors: Sagir M. Yusuf, Chris Baber

Abstract:

In this paper, we describe how to achieve knowledge understanding and prediction (Situation Awareness (SA)) for multiple-agents conducting searching activity using Bayesian inferential reasoning and learning. Bayesian Belief Network was used to monitor agents' knowledge about their environment, and cases are recorded for the network training using expectation-maximisation or gradient descent algorithm. The well trained network will be used for decision making and environmental situation prediction. Forest fire searching by multiple UAVs was the use case. UAVs are tasked to explore a forest and find a fire for urgent actions by the fire wardens. The paper focused on two problems: (i) effective agents’ path planning strategy and (ii) knowledge understanding and prediction (SA). The path planning problem by inspiring animal mode of foraging using Lévy distribution augmented with Bayesian reasoning was fully described in this paper. Results proof that the Lévy flight strategy performs better than the previous fixed-pattern (e.g., parallel sweeps) approaches in terms of energy and time utilisation. We also introduced a waypoint assessment strategy called k-previous waypoints assessment. It improves the performance of the ordinary levy flight by saving agent’s resources and mission time through redundant search avoidance. The agents (UAVs) are to report their mission knowledge at the central server for interpretation and prediction purposes. Bayesian reasoning and learning were used for the SA and results proof effectiveness in different environments scenario in terms of prediction and effective knowledge representation. The prediction accuracy was measured using learning error rate, logarithm loss, and Brier score and the result proves that little agents mission that can be used for prediction within the same or different environment. Finally, we described a situation-based knowledge visualization and prediction technique for heterogeneous multi-UAV mission. While this paper proves linkage of Bayesian reasoning and learning with SA and effective searching strategy, future works is focusing on simplifying the architecture.

Keywords: Lèvy flight, situation awareness, multi-agent system, multi-robot coordination, autonomous system, swarm intelligence.

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1739 An Improved Heat Transfer Prediction Model for Film Condensation inside a Tube with Interphacial Shear Effect

Authors: V. G. Rifert, V. V. Gorin, V. V. Sereda, V. V. Treputnev

Abstract:

The analysis of heat transfer design methods in condensing inside plain tubes under existing influence of shear stress is presented in this paper. The existing discrepancy in more than 30-50% between rating heat transfer coefficients and experimental data has been noted. The analysis of existing theoretical and semi-empirical methods of heat transfer prediction is given. The influence of a precise definition concerning boundaries of phase flow (it is especially important in condensing inside horizontal tubes), shear stress (friction coefficient) and heat flux on design of heat transfer is shown. The substantiation of boundary conditions of the values of parameters, influencing accuracy of rated relationships, is given. More correct relationships for heat transfer prediction, which showed good convergence with experiments made by different authors, are substantiated in this work.

Keywords: Film condensation, heat transfer, plain tube, shear stress.

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1738 Analysis on Urban Form and Evolution Mechanism of High-Density City: Case Study of Hong Kong

Authors: Yuan Zhang

Abstract:

Along with large population and great demands for urban development, Hong Kong serves as a typical high-density city with multiple altitudes, advanced three-dimensional traffic system, rich city open space, etc. This paper contributes to analyzing its complex urban form and evolution mechanism from three aspects of view, separately as time, space and buildings. Taking both horizontal and vertical dimension into consideration, this paper provides a perspective to explore the fascinating process of growing and space folding in the urban form of high-density city, also as a research reference for related high-density urban design.

Keywords: Evolution mechanism, high-density city, Hong Kong, urban form.

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1737 The Use Support Vector Machine and Back Propagation Neural Network for Prediction of Daily Tidal Levels along the Jeddah Coast, Saudi Arabia

Authors: E. A. Mlybari, M. S. Elbisy, A. H. Alshahri, O. M. Albarakati

Abstract:

Sea level rise threatens to increase the impact of future  storms and hurricanes on coastal communities. Accurate sea level  change prediction and supplement is an important task in determining  constructions and human activities in coastal and oceanic areas. In  this study, support vector machines (SVM) is proposed to predict  daily tidal levels along the Jeddah Coast, Saudi Arabia. The optimal  parameter values of kernel function are determined using a genetic  algorithm. The SVM results are compared with the field data and  with back propagation (BP). Among the models, the SVM is superior  to BPNN and has better generalization performance.

 

Keywords: Tides, Prediction, Support Vector Machines, Genetic Algorithm, Back-Propagation Neural Network, Risk, Hazards.

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1736 Alternative Methods to Rank the Impact of Object Oriented Metrics in Fault Prediction Modeling using Neural Networks

Authors: Kamaldeep Kaur, Arvinder Kaur, Ruchika Malhotra

Abstract:

The aim of this paper is to rank the impact of Object Oriented(OO) metrics in fault prediction modeling using Artificial Neural Networks(ANNs). Past studies on empirical validation of object oriented metrics as fault predictors using ANNs have focused on the predictive quality of neural networks versus standard statistical techniques. In this empirical study we turn our attention to the capability of ANNs in ranking the impact of these explanatory metrics on fault proneness. In ANNs data analysis approach, there is no clear method of ranking the impact of individual metrics. Five ANN based techniques are studied which rank object oriented metrics in predicting fault proneness of classes. These techniques are i) overall connection weights method ii) Garson-s method iii) The partial derivatives methods iv) The Input Perturb method v) the classical stepwise methods. We develop and evaluate different prediction models based on the ranking of the metrics by the individual techniques. The models based on overall connection weights and partial derivatives methods have been found to be most accurate.

Keywords: Artificial Neural Networks (ANNS), Backpropagation, Fault Prediction Modeling.

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1735 The Effect of Clamping Restrain on the Prediction of Drape Simulation Software Tool

Authors: T.A. Adegbola, IEA Aghachi, E.R. Sadiku

Abstract:

To investigates the effect of fiberglass clamping process improvement on drape simulation prediction. This has great effect on the mould and the fiber during manufacturing process. This also, improves the fiber strain, the quality of the fiber orientation in the area of folding and wrinkles formation during the press-forming process. Drape simulation software tool was used to digitalize the process, noting the formation problems on the contour sensitive part. This was compared with the real life clamping processes using single and double frame set-ups to observe the effects. Also, restrains are introduced by using clips, and the G-clamps with predetermine revolution to; restrain the fabric deformation during the forming process.The incorporation of clamping and fabric restrain deformation improved on the prediction of the simulation tool. Therefore, for effective forming process, incorporation of clamping process into the drape simulation process will assist in the development of fiberglass application in manufacturing process.

Keywords: clamping, fiberglass, drape simulation, pressforming.

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1734 Artificial Neural Network Prediction for Coke Strength after Reaction and Data Analysis

Authors: Sulata Maharana, B Biswas, Adity Ganguly, Ashok Kumar

Abstract:

In this paper, the requirement for Coke quality prediction, its role in Blast furnaces, and the model output is explained. By applying method of Artificial Neural Networking (ANN) using back propagation (BP) algorithm, prediction model has been developed to predict CSR. Important blast furnace functions such as permeability, heat exchanging, melting, and reducing capacity are mostly connected to coke quality. Coke quality is further dependent upon coal characterization and coke making process parameters. The ANN model developed is a useful tool for process experts to adjust the control parameters in case of coke quality deviations. The model also makes it possible to predict CSR for new coal blends which are yet to be used in Coke Plant. Input data to the model was structured into 3 modules, for tenure of past 2 years and the incremental models thus developed assists in identifying the group causing the deviation of CSR.

Keywords: Artificial Neural Networks, backpropagation, CokeStrength after Reaction, Multilayer Perceptron.

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1733 Pathogenetic Mechanism of Alcohol's Effect on Academic Performance

Authors: M. O. Welcome, E. V. Pereverzeva, V. A. Pereverzev

Abstract:

The regulatory competence of blood glucose homeostasis might determine the degree of academic performance. The aim of this study was to produce a model of students' alcohol use based on glucose homeostasis control and cognitive functions that might define the pathogenetic mechanism of alcohol's effect on academic performance. The study took six hours and thirty minutes on fasting, involving thirteen male students. Disturbances in cognitive functions, precisely a decrease in the effectiveness of active attention and a faster development of fatigue after four to six hours of mental work in alcohol users, compared to abstainers was statistically proven. These disturbances in alcohol users were retained even after seven to ten days of moderate alcohol use and might be the reason for the low academic performances among students who use alcoholic beverages.

Keywords: Alcohol, academic performance, pathogenetic mechanism.

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1732 The Predictability and Abstractness of Language: A Study in Understanding and Usage of the English Language through Probabilistic Modeling and Frequency

Authors: Revanth Sai Kosaraju, Michael Ramscar, Melody Dye

Abstract:

Accounts of language acquisition differ significantly in their treatment of the role of prediction in language learning. In particular, nativist accounts posit that probabilistic learning about words and word sequences has little to do with how children come to use language. The accuracy of this claim was examined by testing whether distributional probabilities and frequency contributed to how well 3-4 year olds repeat simple word chunks. Corresponding chunks were the same length, expressed similar content, and were all grammatically acceptable, yet the results of the study showed marked differences in performance when overall distributional frequency varied. It was found that a distributional model of language predicted the empirical findings better than a number of other models, replicating earlier findings and showing that children attend to distributional probabilities in an adult corpus. This suggested that language is more prediction-and-error based, rather than on abstract rules which nativist camps suggest.

Keywords: Abstractness, child psychology, language acquisition, prediction and error.

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1731 Integrated Energy-Aware Mechanism for MANETs using On-demand Routing

Authors: M. Tamilarasi, T.G. Palanivelu

Abstract:

Mobile Ad Hoc Networks (MANETs) are multi-hop wireless networks in which all nodes cooperatively maintain network connectivity. In such a multi-hop wireless network, every node may be required to perform routing in order to achieve end-to-end communication among nodes. These networks are energy constrained as most ad hoc mobile nodes today operate with limited battery power. Hence, it is important to minimize the energy consumption of the entire network in order to maximize the lifetime of ad hoc networks. In this paper, a mechanism involving the integration of load balancing approach and transmission power control approach is introduced to maximize the life-span of MANETs. The mechanism is applied on Ad hoc On-demand Vector (AODV) protocol to make it as energy aware AODV (EA_AODV). The simulation is carried out using GloMoSim2.03 simulator. The results show that the proposed mechanism reduces the average required transmission energy per packet compared to the standard AODV.

Keywords: energy aware routing, load balance, Mobile Ad HocNetworks, MANETs , on demand routing, transmission power control.

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1730 Classification of Initial Stripe Height Patterns using Radial Basis Function Neural Network for Proportional Gain Prediction

Authors: Prasit Wonglersak, Prakarnkiat Youngkong, Ittipon Cheowanish

Abstract:

This paper aims to improve a fine lapping process of hard disk drive (HDD) lapping machines by removing materials from each slider together with controlling the strip height (SH) variation to minimum value. The standard deviation is the key parameter to evaluate the strip height variation, hence it is minimized. In this paper, a design of experiment (DOE) with factorial analysis by twoway analysis of variance (ANOVA) is adopted to obtain a statistically information. The statistics results reveal that initial stripe height patterns affect the final SH variation. Therefore, initial SH classification using a radial basis function neural network is implemented to achieve the proportional gain prediction.

Keywords: Stripe height variation, Two-way analysis ofvariance (ANOVA), Radial basis function neural network, Proportional gain prediction.

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1729 Phase Equilibrium of Volatile Organic Compounds in Polymeric Solvents Using Group Contribution Methods

Authors: E. Muzenda

Abstract:

Group contribution methods such as the UNIFAC are of major interest to researchers and engineers involved synthesis, feasibility studies, design and optimization of separation processes as well as other applications of industrial use. Reliable knowledge of the phase equilibrium behavior is crucial for the prediction of the fate of the chemical in the environment and other applications. The objective of this study was to predict the solubility of selected volatile organic compounds (VOCs) in glycol polymers and biodiesel. Measurements can be expensive and time consuming, hence the need for thermodynamic models. The results obtained in this study for the infinite dilution activity coefficients compare very well those published in literature obtained through measurements. It is suggested that in preliminary design or feasibility studies of absorption systems for the abatement of volatile organic compounds, prediction procedures should be implemented while accurate fluid phase equilibrium data should be obtained from experiment.

Keywords: Volatile organic compounds, Prediction, Phaseequilibrium, Environmental, Infinite dilution.

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1728 Methods for Better Assessment of Fatigue and Deterioration in Bridges and Other Steel or Concrete Constructions

Authors: J. Menčík, B. Culek, Jr., L. Beran, J. Mareš

Abstract:

Large metal and concrete structures suffer by various kinds of deterioration, and accurate prediction of the remaining life is important. This paper informs about two methods for its assessment. One method, suitable for steel bridges and other constructions exposed to fatigue, monitors the loads and damage accumulation using information systems for the operation and the finite element model of the construction. In addition to the operation load, the dead weight of the construction and thermal stresses can be included into the model. The second method is suitable for concrete bridges and other structures, which suffer by carbonatation and other degradation processes, driven by diffusion. The diffusion constant, important for the prediction of future development, can be determined from the depth-profile of pH, obtained by pH measurement at various depths. Comparison with measurements on real objects illustrates the suitability of both methods.

Keywords: Bridges, carbonatation, concrete, diagnostics, fatigue, life prediction, monitoring, railway, simulation, structures.

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1727 CFD Analysis of Two Phase Flow in a Horizontal Pipe – Prediction of Pressure Drop

Authors: P. Bhramara, V. D. Rao, K. V. Sharma , T. K. K. Reddy

Abstract:

In designing of condensers, the prediction of pressure drop is as important as the prediction of heat transfer coefficient. Modeling of two phase flow, particularly liquid – vapor flow under diabatic conditions inside a horizontal tube using CFD analysis is difficult with the available two phase models in FLUENT due to continuously changing flow patterns. In the present analysis, CFD analysis of two phase flow of refrigerants inside a horizontal tube of inner diameter, 0.0085 m and 1.2 m length is carried out using homogeneous model under adiabatic conditions. The refrigerants considered are R22, R134a and R407C. The analysis is performed at different saturation temperatures and at different flow rates to evaluate the local frictional pressure drop. Using Homogeneous model, average properties are obtained for each of the refrigerants that is considered as single phase pseudo fluid. The so obtained pressure drop data is compared with the separated flow models available in literature.

Keywords: Adiabatic conditions, CFD analysis, Homogeneousmodel and Liquid – Vapor flow.

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1726 A Fast Replica Placement Methodology for Large-scale Distributed Computing Systems

Authors: Samee Ullah Khan, C. Ardil

Abstract:

Fine-grained data replication over the Internet allows duplication of frequently accessed data objects, as opposed to entire sites, to certain locations so as to improve the performance of largescale content distribution systems. In a distributed system, agents representing their sites try to maximize their own benefit since they are driven by different goals such as to minimize their communication costs, latency, etc. In this paper, we will use game theoretical techniques and in particular auctions to identify a bidding mechanism that encapsulates the selfishness of the agents, while having a controlling hand over them. In essence, the proposed game theory based mechanism is the study of what happens when independent agents act selfishly and how to control them to maximize the overall performance. A bidding mechanism asks how one can design systems so that agents- selfish behavior results in the desired system-wide goals. Experimental results reveal that this mechanism provides excellent solution quality, while maintaining fast execution time. The comparisons are recorded against some well known techniques such as greedy, branch and bound, game theoretical auctions and genetic algorithms.

Keywords: Data replication, auctions, static allocation, pricing.

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1725 Towards End-To-End Disease Prediction from Raw Metagenomic Data

Authors: Maxence Queyrel, Edi Prifti, Alexandre Templier, Jean-Daniel Zucker

Abstract:

Analysis of the human microbiome using metagenomic sequencing data has demonstrated high ability in discriminating various human diseases. Raw metagenomic sequencing data require multiple complex and computationally heavy bioinformatics steps prior to data analysis. Such data contain millions of short sequences read from the fragmented DNA sequences and stored as fastq files. Conventional processing pipelines consist in multiple steps including quality control, filtering, alignment of sequences against genomic catalogs (genes, species, taxonomic levels, functional pathways, etc.). These pipelines are complex to use, time consuming and rely on a large number of parameters that often provide variability and impact the estimation of the microbiome elements. Training Deep Neural Networks directly from raw sequencing data is a promising approach to bypass some of the challenges associated with mainstream bioinformatics pipelines. Most of these methods use the concept of word and sentence embeddings that create a meaningful and numerical representation of DNA sequences, while extracting features and reducing the dimensionality of the data. In this paper we present an end-to-end approach that classifies patients into disease groups directly from raw metagenomic reads: metagenome2vec. This approach is composed of four steps (i) generating a vocabulary of k-mers and learning their numerical embeddings; (ii) learning DNA sequence (read) embeddings; (iii) identifying the genome from which the sequence is most likely to come and (iv) training a multiple instance learning classifier which predicts the phenotype based on the vector representation of the raw data. An attention mechanism is applied in the network so that the model can be interpreted, assigning a weight to the influence of the prediction for each genome. Using two public real-life data-sets as well a simulated one, we demonstrated that this original approach reaches high performance, comparable with the state-of-the-art methods applied directly on processed data though mainstream bioinformatics workflows. These results are encouraging for this proof of concept work. We believe that with further dedication, the DNN models have the potential to surpass mainstream bioinformatics workflows in disease classification tasks.

Keywords: Metagenomics, phenotype prediction, deep learning, embeddings, multiple instance learning.

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1724 Model-Driven and Data-Driven Approaches for Crop Yield Prediction: Analysis and Comparison

Authors: Xiangtuo Chen, Paul-Henry Cournéde

Abstract:

Crop yield prediction is a paramount issue in agriculture. The main idea of this paper is to find out efficient way to predict the yield of corn based meteorological records. The prediction models used in this paper can be classified into model-driven approaches and data-driven approaches, according to the different modeling methodologies. The model-driven approaches are based on crop mechanistic modeling. They describe crop growth in interaction with their environment as dynamical systems. But the calibration process of the dynamic system comes up with much difficulty, because it turns out to be a multidimensional non-convex optimization problem. An original contribution of this paper is to propose a statistical methodology, Multi-Scenarios Parameters Estimation (MSPE), for the parametrization of potentially complex mechanistic models from a new type of datasets (climatic data, final yield in many situations). It is tested with CORNFLO, a crop model for maize growth. On the other hand, the data-driven approach for yield prediction is free of the complex biophysical process. But it has some strict requirements about the dataset. A second contribution of the paper is the comparison of these model-driven methods with classical data-driven methods. For this purpose, we consider two classes of regression methods, methods derived from linear regression (Ridge and Lasso Regression, Principal Components Regression or Partial Least Squares Regression) and machine learning methods (Random Forest, k-Nearest Neighbor, Artificial Neural Network and SVM regression). The dataset consists of 720 records of corn yield at county scale provided by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) and the associated climatic data. A 5-folds cross-validation process and two accuracy metrics: root mean square error of prediction(RMSEP), mean absolute error of prediction(MAEP) were used to evaluate the crop prediction capacity. The results show that among the data-driven approaches, Random Forest is the most robust and generally achieves the best prediction error (MAEP 4.27%). It also outperforms our model-driven approach (MAEP 6.11%). However, the method to calibrate the mechanistic model from dataset easy to access offers several side-perspectives. The mechanistic model can potentially help to underline the stresses suffered by the crop or to identify the biological parameters of interest for breeding purposes. For this reason, an interesting perspective is to combine these two types of approaches.

Keywords: Crop yield prediction, crop model, sensitivity analysis, paramater estimation, particle swarm optimization, random forest.

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1723 A Prediction-Based Reversible Watermarking for MRI Images

Authors: Nuha Omran Abokhdair, Azizah Bt Abdul Manaf

Abstract:

Reversible watermarking is a special branch of image watermarking, that is able to recover the original image after extracting the watermark from the image. In this paper, an adaptive prediction-based reversible watermarking scheme is presented, in order to increase the payload capacity of MRI medical images. The scheme divides the image into two parts, Region of Interest (ROI) and Region of Non-Interest (RONI). Two bits are embedded in each embeddable pixel of RONI and one bit is embedded in each embeddable pixel of ROI. The experimental results demonstrate that the proposed scheme is able to achieve high embedding capacity. This is mainly caused by two reasons. First, the pixels that were excluded from data embedding due to overflow/underflow are used for data embedding. Second, large location map that need to be added to watermark data as overhead is eliminated and thus lower data embedding capacity is prevented. Moreover, the scheme provides good visual quality to the watermarked image.

Keywords: Medical image watermarking, reversible watermarking, Difference Expansion, Prediction-Error Expansion.

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1722 Stature Prediction Model Based On Hand Anthropometry

Authors: Arunesh Chandra, Pankaj Chandna, Surinder Deswal, Rajesh Kumar Mishra, Rajender Kumar

Abstract:

The arm length, hand length, hand breadth and middle finger length of 1540 right-handed industrial workers of Haryana state was used to assess the relationship between the upper limb dimensions and stature. Initially, the data were analyzed using basic univariate analysis and independent t-tests; then simple and multiple linear regression models were used to estimate stature using SPSS (version 17). There was a positive correlation between upper limb measurements (hand length, hand breadth, arm length and middle finger length) and stature (p < 0.01), which was highest for hand length. The accuracy of stature prediction ranged from ± 54.897 mm to ± 58.307 mm. The use of multiple regression equations gave better results than simple regression equations. This study provides new forensic standards for stature estimation from the upper limb measurements of male industrial workers of Haryana (India). The results of this research indicate that stature can be determined using hand dimensions with accuracy, when only upper limb is available due to any reasons likewise explosions, train/plane crashes, mutilated bodies, etc. The regression formula derived in this study will be useful for anatomists, archaeologists, anthropologists, design engineers and forensic scientists for fairly prediction of stature using regression equations.

Keywords: Anthropometric dimensions, Forensic identification, Industrial workers, Stature prediction.

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1721 Copper Price Prediction Model for Various Economic Situations

Authors: Haidy S. Ghali, Engy Serag, A. Samer Ezeldin

Abstract:

Copper is an essential raw material used in the construction industry. During 2021 and the first half of 2022, the global market suffered from a significant fluctuation in copper raw material prices due to the aftermath of both the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war which exposed its consumers to an unexpected financial risk. Thereto, this paper aims to develop two hybrid price prediction models using artificial neural network and long short-term memory (ANN-LSTM), by Python, that can forecast the average monthly copper prices, traded in the London Metal Exchange; the first model is a multivariate model that forecasts the copper price of the next 1-month and the second is a univariate model that predicts the copper prices of the upcoming three months. Historical data of average monthly London Metal Exchange copper prices are collected from January 2009 till July 2022 and potential external factors are identified and employed in the multivariate model. These factors lie under three main categories: energy prices, and economic indicators of the three major exporting countries of copper depending on the data availability. Before developing the LSTM models, the collected external parameters are analyzed with respect to the copper prices using correlation, and multicollinearity tests in R software; then, the parameters are further screened to select the parameters that influence the copper prices. Then, the two LSTM models are developed, and the dataset is divided into training, validation, and testing sets. The results show that the performance of the 3-month prediction model is better than the 1-month prediction model; but still, both models can act as predicting tools for diverse economic situations.

Keywords: Copper prices, prediction model, neural network, time series forecasting.

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1720 Unsupervised Text Mining Approach to Early Warning System

Authors: Ichihan Tai, Bill Olson, Paul Blessner

Abstract:

Traditional early warning systems that alarm against crisis are generally based on structured or numerical data; therefore, a system that can make predictions based on unstructured textual data, an uncorrelated data source, is a great complement to the traditional early warning systems. The Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) Volatility Index (VIX), commonly referred to as the fear index, measures the cost of insurance against market crash, and spikes in the event of crisis. In this study, news data is consumed for prediction of whether there will be a market-wide crisis by predicting the movement of the fear index, and the historical references to similar events are presented in an unsupervised manner. Topic modeling-based prediction and representation are made based on daily news data between 1990 and 2015 from The Wall Street Journal against VIX index data from CBOE.

Keywords: Early Warning System, Knowledge Management, Topic Modeling, Market Prediction.

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