Search results for: pickand valley load forecasting
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 1677

Search results for: pickand valley load forecasting

1557 Forecasting Stock Price Manipulation in Capital Market

Authors: F. Rahnamay Roodposhti, M. Falah Shams, H. Kordlouie

Abstract:

The aim of the article is extending and developing econometrics and network structure based methods which are able to distinguish price manipulation in Tehran stock exchange. The principal goal of the present study is to offer model for approximating price manipulation in Tehran stock exchange. In order to do so by applying separation method a sample consisting of 397 companies accepted at Tehran stock exchange were selected and information related to their price and volume of trades during years 2001 until 2009 were collected and then through performing runs test, skewness test and duration correlative test the selected companies were divided into 2 sets of manipulated and non manipulated companies. In the next stage by investigating cumulative return process and volume of trades in manipulated companies, the date of starting price manipulation was specified and in this way the logit model, artificial neural network, multiple discriminant analysis and by using information related to size of company, clarity of information, ratio of P/E and liquidity of stock one year prior price manipulation; a model for forecasting price manipulation of stocks of companies present in Tehran stock exchange were designed. At the end the power of forecasting models were studied by using data of test set. Whereas the power of forecasting logit model for test set was 92.1%, for artificial neural network was 94.1% and multi audit analysis model was 90.2%; therefore all of the 3 aforesaid models has high power to forecast price manipulation and there is no considerable difference among forecasting power of these 3 models.

Keywords: Price Manipulation, Liquidity, Size of Company, Floating Stock, Information Clarity

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1556 Levenberg-Marquardt Algorithm for Karachi Stock Exchange Share Rates Forecasting

Authors: Syed Muhammad Aqil Burney, Tahseen Ahmed Jilani, C. Ardil

Abstract:

Financial forecasting is an example of signal processing problems. A number of ways to train/learn the network are available. We have used Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm for error back-propagation for weight adjustment. Pre-processing of data has reduced much of the variation at large scale to small scale, reducing the variation of training data.

Keywords: Gradient descent method, jacobian matrix.Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm, quadratic error surfaces,

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1555 A Two Level Load Balancing Approach for Cloud Environment

Authors: Anurag Jain, Rajneesh Kumar

Abstract:

Cloud computing is the outcome of rapid growth of internet. Due to elastic nature of cloud computing and unpredictable behavior of user, load balancing is the major issue in cloud computing paradigm. An efficient load balancing technique can improve the performance in terms of efficient resource utilization and higher customer satisfaction. Load balancing can be implemented through task scheduling, resource allocation and task migration. Various parameters to analyze the performance of load balancing approach are response time, cost, data processing time and throughput. This paper demonstrates a two level load balancer approach by combining join idle queue and join shortest queue approach. Authors have used cloud analyst simulator to test proposed two level load balancer approach. The results are analyzed and compared with the existing algorithms and as observed, proposed work is one step ahead of existing techniques.

Keywords: Cloud Analyst, Cloud Computing, Join Idle Queue, Join Shortest Queue, Load balancing, Task Scheduling.

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1554 A Study on Unidirectional Analog Output Voltage Inverter for Capacitive Load

Authors: Sun-Ki Hong, Nam-HeeByeon, Jung-Seop Lee, Tae-Sam Kang

Abstract:

For Common R or R-L load to apply arbitrary voltage, the bridge traditional inverters don’t have any difficulties by PWM method. However for driving some piezoelectric actuator, arbitrary voltage not a pulse but a steady voltage should be applied. Piezoelectric load is considered as R-C load and its voltage does not decrease even though the applied voltage decreases. Therefore it needs some special inverter with circuit that can discharge the capacitive energy. Especially for unidirectional arbitrary voltage driving like as sine wave, it becomes more difficult problem. In this paper, a charge and discharge circuit for unidirectional arbitrary voltage driving for piezoelectric actuator is proposed. The circuit has charging and discharging switches for increasing and decreasing output voltage. With the proposed simple circuit, the load voltage can have any unidirectional level with tens of bandwidth because the load voltage can be adjusted by switching the charging and discharging switch appropriately. The appropriateness is proved from the simulation of the proposed circuit.

Keywords: DC-DC converter, analog output voltage, sinusoidal drive, piezoelectric load, discharging circuit.

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1553 An Autonomous Collaborative Forecasting System Implementation – The First Step towards Successful CPFR System

Authors: Chi-Fang Huang, Yun-Shiow Chen, Yun-Kung Chung

Abstract:

In the past decade, artificial neural networks (ANNs) have been regarded as an instrument for problem-solving and decision-making; indeed, they have already done with a substantial efficiency and effectiveness improvement in industries and businesses. In this paper, the Back-Propagation neural Networks (BPNs) will be modulated to demonstrate the performance of the collaborative forecasting (CF) function of a Collaborative Planning, Forecasting and Replenishment (CPFR®) system. CPFR functions the balance between the sufficient product supply and the necessary customer demand in a Supply and Demand Chain (SDC). Several classical standard BPN will be grouped, collaborated and exploited for the easy implementation of the proposed modular ANN framework based on the topology of a SDC. Each individual BPN is applied as a modular tool to perform the task of forecasting SKUs (Stock-Keeping Units) levels that are managed and supervised at a POS (point of sale), a wholesaler, and a manufacturer in an SDC. The proposed modular BPN-based CF system will be exemplified and experimentally verified using lots of datasets of the simulated SDC. The experimental results showed that a complex CF problem can be divided into a group of simpler sub-problems based on the single independent trading partners distributed over SDC, and its SKU forecasting accuracy was satisfied when the system forecasted values compared to the original simulated SDC data. The primary task of implementing an autonomous CF involves the study of supervised ANN learning methodology which aims at making “knowledgeable" decision for the best SKU sales plan and stocks management.

Keywords: CPFR, artificial neural networks, global logistics, supply and demand chain.

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1552 WEMax: Virtual Manned Assembly Line Generation

Authors: Won Kyung Ham, Kang Hoon Cho, Yongho Chung, Sang C. Park

Abstract:

Presented in this paper is a framework of a software ‘WEMax’. The WEMax is invented for analysis and simulation for manned assembly lines to sustain and improve performance of manufacturing systems. In a manufacturing system, performance, such as productivity, is a key of competitiveness for output products. However, the manned assembly lines are difficult to forecast performance, because human labors are not expectable factors by computer simulation models or mathematical models. Existing approaches to performance forecasting of the manned assembly lines are limited to matters of the human itself, such as ergonomic and workload design, and non-human-factor-relevant simulation. Consequently, an approach for the forecasting and improvement of manned assembly line performance is needed to research. As a solution of the current problem, this study proposes a framework that is for generation and simulation of virtual manned assembly lines, and the framework has been implemented as a software.

Keywords: Performance Forecasting, Simulation, Virtual Manned Assembly Line.

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1551 VaR Forecasting in Times of Increased Volatility

Authors: Ivo Jánský, Milan Rippel

Abstract:

The paper evaluates several hundred one-day-ahead VaR forecasting models in the time period between the years 2004 and 2009 on data from six world stock indices - DJI, GSPC, IXIC, FTSE, GDAXI and N225. The models model mean using the ARMA processes with up to two lags and variance with one of GARCH, EGARCH or TARCH processes with up to two lags. The models are estimated on the data from the in-sample period and their forecasting accuracy is evaluated on the out-of-sample data, which are more volatile. The main aim of the paper is to test whether a model estimated on data with lower volatility can be used in periods with higher volatility. The evaluation is based on the conditional coverage test and is performed on each stock index separately. The primary result of the paper is that the volatility is best modelled using a GARCH process and that an ARMA process pattern cannot be found in analyzed time series.

Keywords: VaR, risk analysis, conditional volatility, garch, egarch, tarch, moving average process, autoregressive process

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1550 Influence of Paralleled Capacitance Effect in Well-defined Multiple Value Logical Level System with Active Load

Authors: Chih Chin Yang, Yen Chun Lin, Hsiao Hsuan Cheng

Abstract:

Three similar negative differential resistance (NDR) profiles with both high peak to valley current density ratio (PVCDR) value and high peak current density (PCD) value in unity resonant tunneling electronic circuit (RTEC) element is developed in this paper. The PCD values and valley current density (VCD) values of the three NDR curves are all about 3.5 A and 0.8 A, respectively. All PV values of NDR curves are 0.40 V, 0.82 V, and 1.35 V, respectively. The VV values are 0.61 V, 1.07 V, and 1.69 V, respectively. All PVCDR values reach about 4.4 in three NDR curves. The PCD value of 3.5 A in triple PVCDR RTEC element is better than other resonant tunneling devices (RTD) elements. The high PVCDR value is concluded the lower VCD value about 0.8 A. The low VCD value is achieved by suitable selection of resistors in triple PVCDR RTEC element. The low PV value less than 1.35 V possesses low power dispersion in triple PVCDR RTEC element. The designed multiple value logical level (MVLL) system using triple PVCDR RTEC element provides equidistant logical level. The logical levels of MVLL system are about 0.2 V, 0.8 V, 1.5 V, and 2.2 V from low voltage to high voltage and then 2.2 V, 1.3 V, 0.8 V, and 0.2 V from high voltage back to low voltage in half cycle of sinusoid wave. The output level of four levels MVLL system is represented in 0.3 V, 1.1 V, 1.7 V, and 2.6 V, which satisfies the NMP condition of traditional two-bit system. The remarkable logical characteristic of improved MVLL system with paralleled capacitor are with four significant stable logical levels about 220 mV, 223 mV, 228 mV, and 230 mV. The stability and articulation of logical levels of improved MVLL system are outstanding. The average holding time of improved MVLL system is approximately 0.14 μs. The holding time of improved MVLL system is fourfold than of basic MVLL system. The function of additional capacitor in the improved MVLL system is successfully discovered.

Keywords: Capacitance, Logical level, Constant current source

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1549 Applying Energy Consumption Schedule and Comparing It with Load Shifting Technique in Residential Load

Authors: Amira M. Attia, Karim H. Youssef, Nabil H. Abbasy

Abstract:

Energy consumption schedule (ECS) technique shifts usage of loads from on peak hours and redistributes them throughout the day according to residents’ operating time preferences. This technique is used as form of indirect control from utility to improve the load curve and hence its load factor and reduce customer’s total electric bill as well. Similarly, load shifting technique achieves ECS purposes but as direct control form applied from utility. In this paper, ECS is simulated twice as optimal constrained mathematical formula, solved by using CVX program in MATLAB® R2013b. First, it is utilized for single residential building with ten apartments to determine max allowable energy consumption per hour for each residential apartment. Then, it is used for single apartment with number of shiftable domestic devices, where operating schedule is deduced using previous simulation output results as constraints. The paper ends by giving differences between ECS technique and load shifting technique via literature and simulation. Based on results assessment, it will be shown whether using ECS or load shifting is more beneficial to both customer and utility.

Keywords: Energy consumption schedule, load shifting technique, comparison.

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1548 Finite Element Analysis of Connecting Rod

Authors: Mohammed Mohsin Ali H., Mohamed Haneef

Abstract:

The connecting rod transmits the piston load to the crank causing the latter to turn, thus converting the reciprocating motion of the piston into a rotary motion of the crankshaft. Connecting rods are subjected to forces generated by mass and fuel combustion. This study investigates and compares the fatigue behavior of forged steel, powder forged and ASTM a 514 steel cold quenched connecting rods. The objective is to suggest for a new material with reduced weight and cost with the increased fatigue life. This has entailed performing a detailed load analysis. Therefore, this study has dealt with two subjects: first, dynamic load and stress analysis of the connecting rod, and second, optimization for material, weight and cost. In the first part of the study, the loads acting on the connecting rod as a function of time were obtained. Based on the observations of the dynamic FEA, static FEA, and the load analysis results, the load for the optimization study was selected. It is the conclusion of this study that the connecting rod can be designed and optimized under a load range comprising tensile load and compressive load. Tensile load corresponds to 360o crank angle at the maximum engine speed. The compressive load is corresponding to the peak gas pressure. Furthermore, the existing connecting rod can be replaced with a new connecting rod made of ASTM a 514 steel cold quenched that is 12% lighter and 28% cheaper.

Keywords: Connecting rod, ASTM a514 cold quenched steel, static analysis, fatigue analysis, stress life approach.

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1547 The Role of Business Survey Measures in Forecasting Croatian Industrial Production

Authors: M. Cizmesija, N. Erjavec, V. Bahovec

Abstract:

While the European Union (EU) harmonized methodology is a benchmark of worldwide used business survey (BS) methodology, the choice of variables that are components of the confidence indicators, as the leading indicators, is not strictly determined and unique. Therefore, the aim of this paper is to investigate and to quantify the relationship between all business survey variables in manufacturing industry and industrial production as a reference macroeconomic series in Croatia. The assumption is that there are variables in the business survey, that are not components of Industrial Confidence Indicator (ICI) and which can accurately (and sometimes better then ICI) predict changes in Croatian industrial production. Empirical analyses are conducted using quarterly data of BS variables in manufacturing industry and Croatian industrial production over the period from the first quarter 2005 to the first quarter 2013. Research results confirmed the assumption: three BS variables which is not components of ICI (competitive position, demand and liquidity) are the best leading indicator then ICI, in forecasting changes in Croatian industrial production instantaneously, with one, two or three quarter ahead.

Keywords: Balance, Business Survey, Confidence Indicators, Industrial Production, Forecasting.

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1546 An Evaluation of the Opportunities and Challenges of Wi-Fi Adoption in Malaysian Institutions

Authors: Subrahmanyam Kodukula, Nurbiya Maimaiti

Abstract:

There have been many variations of technologies that helped educators in teaching & learning. From the past research it is evident that Information Technology significantly increases student participation and interactivity in the classrooms. This research started with a aim to find whether adoption of Wi-Fi environment by Malaysian Higher Educational Institutions (HEI) can benefit students and staff equally. The study was carried out in HEI-s of Klang Valley, Malaysia and the data is gathered through paper based surveys. A sample size of 237 units were randomly selected from 5 higher educational institutions in the Klang Valley using the Stratified Random sampling method and from the analysis of the data, it was found that the implementation of wireless technologies in HEIs have created lot of opportunities and also challenges.

Keywords: Wired Technologies, Wireless Classroom, HEI, Dense User Environment.

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1545 Reciprocating Equipment Piston Rod Dynamic Elastic-Plastic Deformation Analysis

Authors: Amin Almasi

Abstract:

Analysis of reciprocating equipment piston rod leads to nonlinear elastic-plastic deformation analysis of rod with initial imperfection under axial dynamic load. In this paper a new and effective model and analytical formulations are presented to evaluate dynamic deformation and elastic-plastic stresses of reciprocating machine piston rod. This new method has capability to account for geometric nonlinearity, elastic-plastic deformation and dynamic effects. Proposed method can be used for evaluation of piston rod performance for various reciprocating machines under different operation situations. Rod load curves and maximum allowable rod load are calculated with presented method for a refinery type reciprocating compressor. Useful recommendations and guidelines for rod load, rod load reversal and rod drop monitoring are also addressed.

Keywords: Deformation, Reciprocating Equipment, Rod.

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1544 Measuring Cognitive Load - A Solution to Ease Learning of Programming

Authors: Muhammed Yousoof, Mohd Sapiyan, Khaja Kamaluddin

Abstract:

Learning programming is difficult for many learners. Some researches have found that the main difficulty relates to cognitive load. Cognitive overload happens in programming due to the nature of the subject which is intrinisicly over-bearing on the working memory. It happens due to the complexity of the subject itself. The problem is made worse by the poor instructional design methodology used in the teaching and learning process. Various efforts have been proposed to reduce the cognitive load, e.g. visualization softwares, part-program method etc. Use of many computer based systems have also been tried to tackle the problem. However, little success has been made to alleviate the problem. More has to be done to overcome this hurdle. This research attempts at understanding how cognitive load can be managed so as to reduce the problem of overloading. We propose a mechanism to measure the cognitive load during pre instruction, post instruction and in instructional stages of learning. This mechanism is used to help the instruction. As the load changes the instruction is made to adapt itself to ensure cognitive viability. This mechanism could be incorporated as a sub domain in the student model of various computer based instructional systems to facilitate the learning of programming.

Keywords: Cognitive load, Working memory, Cognitive Loadmeasurement.

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1543 Prediction of Research Topics Using Ensemble of Best Predictors from Similar Dataset

Authors: Indra Budi, Rizal Fathoni Aji, Agus Widodo

Abstract:

Prediction of future research topics by using time series analysis either statistical or machine learning has been conducted previously by several researchers. Several methods have been proposed to combine the forecasting results into single forecast. These methods use fixed combination of individual forecast to get the final forecast result. In this paper, quite different approach is employed to select the forecasting methods, in which every point to forecast is calculated by using the best methods used by similar validation dataset. The dataset used in the experiment is time series derived from research report in Garuda, which is an online sites belongs to the Ministry of Education in Indonesia, over the past 20 years. The experimental result demonstrates that the proposed method may perform better compared to the fix combination of predictors. In addition, based on the prediction result, we can forecast emerging research topics for the next few years.

Keywords: Combination, emerging topics, ensemble, forecasting, machine learning, prediction, research topics, similarity measure, time series.

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1542 Probabilistic Model Development for Project Performance Forecasting

Authors: Milad Eghtedari Naeini, Gholamreza Heravi

Abstract:

In this paper, based on the past project cost and time performance, a model for forecasting project cost performance is developed. This study presents a probabilistic project control concept to assure an acceptable forecast of project cost performance. In this concept project activities are classified into sub-groups entitled control accounts. Then obtain the Stochastic S-Curve (SS-Curve), for each sub-group and the project SS-Curve is obtained by summing sub-groups- SS-Curves. In this model, project cost uncertainties are considered through Beta distribution functions of the project activities costs required to complete the project at every selected time sections through project accomplishment, which are extracted from a variety of sources. Based on this model, after a percentage of the project progress, the project performance is measured via Earned Value Management to adjust the primary cost probability distribution functions. Then, accordingly the future project cost performance is predicted by using the Monte-Carlo simulation method.

Keywords: Monte Carlo method, Probabilistic model, Project forecasting, Stochastic S-curve

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1541 Development of a Wind Resource Assessment Framework Using Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model, Python Scripting and Geographic Information Systems

Authors: Jerome T. Tolentino, Ma. Victoria Rejuso, Jara Kaye Villanueva, Loureal Camille Inocencio, Ma. Rosario Concepcion O. Ang

Abstract:

Wind energy is rapidly emerging as the primary source of electricity in the Philippines, although developing an accurate wind resource model is difficult. In this study, Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model, an open source mesoscale Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) model, was used to produce a 1-year atmospheric simulation with 4 km resolution on the Ilocos Region of the Philippines. The WRF output (netCDF) extracts the annual mean wind speed data using a Python-based Graphical User Interface. Lastly, wind resource assessment was produced using a GIS software. Results of the study showed that it is more flexible to use Python scripts than using other post-processing tools in dealing with netCDF files. Using WRF Model, Python, and Geographic Information Systems, a reliable wind resource map is produced.

Keywords: Wind resource assessment, Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model, python, GIS software.

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1540 An Analysis of Blackouts for Electric Power Transmission Systems

Authors: Karamitsos Ioannis, Orfanidis Konstantinos

Abstract:

In this paper an analysis of blackouts in electric power transmission systems is implemented using a model and studied in simple networks with a regular topology. The proposed model describes load demand and network improvements evolving on a slow timescale as well as the fast dynamics of cascading overloads and outages.

Keywords: Blackout, Generator, Load, Power Load.

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1539 Rational Structure of Cable Truss

Authors: V. Goremikins, K. Rocens, D. Serdjuks

Abstract:

One of the main problems of suspended cable structures is initial shape change under the action of non uniform load. The problem can be solved by increasing of weight of construction or by using of prestressing. But this methods cause increasing of materials consumption of suspended cable structure. The cable truss usage is another way how the problem of shape change under the action of non uniform load can be fixed. The cable trusses with the vertical and inclined suspensions, cross web and single cable were analyzed as the main load-bearing structures of suspension bridge. It was shown, that usage of cable truss allows to reduce the vertical displacements up to 32% in comparison with the single cable in case of non uniformly distributed load. In case of uniformly distributed load single cable is preferable.

Keywords: Cable trusses, Non uniform load, Suspension bridge, Vertical displacements.

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1538 Design and Manufacture of Non-Contact Moving Load for Experimental Analysis of Beams

Authors: FiroozBakhtiari-Nejad, Hamidreza Rostami, MeysamMirzaee, Mona Zandbaf

Abstract:

Dynamic tests are an important step of the design of engineering structures, because the accuracy of predictions of theoretical–numerical procedures can be assessed. In experimental test of moving loads that is one of the major research topics, the load is modeled as a simple moving mass or a small vehicle. This paper deals with the applicability of Non-contact Moving Load (NML) for vibration analysis. For this purpose, an experimental set-up is designed to generate the different types of NML including constant and harmonic. The proposed method relies on pressurized air which is useful, especially when dealing with fragile or sensitive structures. To demonstrate the performance of this system, the set-up is employedfor a modal analysis of a beam and detecting crack of the beam.The obtained results indicate that the experimental set-up for NML can be an attractive alternative to the moving load problems.

Keywords: Experimental analysis, Moving load, Non-contact excitation.

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1537 Development of Cooling Load Demand Program for Building in Malaysia

Authors: Zamri Noranai, Dayang Siti Zainab Abang Bujang, Rosli Asmawi, Hamidon Salleh, Mohammad Zainal Md Yusof

Abstract:

Air conditioning is mainly to be used as human comfort medium. It has been use more often in country in which the daily temperatures are high. In scientific, air conditioning is defined as a process of controlling the moisture, cooling, heating and cleaning air. Without proper estimation of cooling load, big amount of waste energy been used because of unsuitable of air conditioning system are not considering to overcoming heat gains from surrounding. This is due to the size of the room is too big and the air conditioning has to use more energy to cool the room and the air conditioning is too small for the room. The studies are basically to develop a program to calculate cooling load. Through this study it is easy to calculate cooling load estimation. Furthermore it-s help to compare the cooling load estimation by hourly and yearly. Base on the last study that been done, the developed software are not user-friendly. For individual without proper knowledge of calculating cooling load estimation might be problem. Easy excess and user-friendly should be the main objective to design something. This program will allow cooling load able be estimate by any users rather than estimation by using rule of thumb. Several of limitation of case study is judged to sure it-s meeting to Malaysia building specification. Finally validation is done by comparison manual calculation and by developed program.

Keywords: Building, Energy and Coaling Load

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1536 Mechanical Model of Gypsum Board Anchors Subjected Cyclic Shear Loading

Authors: Yoshinori Kitsutaka, Fumiya Ikedo

Abstract:

In this study, the mechanical model of various anchors embedded in gypsum board subjected cyclic shear loading were investigated. Shear tests for anchors embedded in 200 mm square size gypsum board were conducted to measure the load - load displacement curves. The strength of the gypsum board was changed for three conditions and 12 kinds of anchors were selected which were ordinary used for gypsum board anchoring. The loading conditions were a monotonous loading and a cyclic loading controlled by a servo-controlled hydraulic loading system to achieve accurate measurement. The fracture energy for each of the anchors was estimated by the analysis of consumed energy calculated by the load - load displacement curve. The effect of the strength of gypsum board and the types of anchors on the shear properties of gypsum board anchors was cleared. A numerical model to predict the load-unload curve of shear deformation of gypsum board anchors caused by such as the earthquake load was proposed and the validity on the model was proved.

Keywords: Gypsum board, anchor, shear test, cyclic loading, load-unload curve.

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1535 Application of Particle Swarm Optimization for Economic Load Dispatch and Loss Reduction

Authors: N. Phanthuna, J. Jaturacherdchaiskul, S. Lerdvanittip, S. Auchariyamet

Abstract:

This paper proposes a particle swarm optimization (PSO) technique to solve the economic load dispatch (ELD) problems. For the ELD problem in this work, the objective function is to minimize the total fuel cost of all generator units for a given daily load pattern while the main constraints are power balance and generation output of each units. Case study in the test system of 40-generation units with 6 load patterns is presented to demonstrate the performance of PSO in solving the ELD problem. It can be seen that the optimal solution given by PSO provides the minimum total cost of generation while satisfying all the constraints and benefiting greatly from saving in power loss reduction.

Keywords: Particle Swarm Optimization, Economic Load Dispatch, Loss Reduction.

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1534 Controlling of Load Elevators by the Fuzzy Logic Method

Authors: Ismail Saritas, Abdullah Adiyaman

Abstract:

In this study, a fuzzy-logic based control system was designed to ensure that time and energy is saved during the operation of load elevators which are used during the construction of tall buildings. In the control system that was devised, for the load elevators to work more efficiently, the energy interval where the motor worked was taken as the output variable whereas the amount of load and the building height were taken as input variables. The most appropriate working intervals depending on the characteristics of these variables were defined by the help of an expert. Fuzzy expert system software was formed using Delphi programming language. In this design, mamdani max-min inference mechanism was used and the centroid method was employed in the clarification procedure. In conclusion, it is observed that the system that was designed is feasible and this is supported by statistical analyses..

Keywords: Fuzzy Logic Control, DC Motor, Load Elevators, Power Control.

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1533 Technological Forecasting on Phytotherapics Development in Brazil

Authors: Simões, Evelyne Rolim Braun, Marques, Lana Grasiela Alves, Soares, Bruno Marques Pinheiro, Daniel Pascoalino, Santos, Maria Rita Morais Chaves, Pessoa, Claudia

Abstract:

The prospective analysis is presented as an important tool to identify the most relevant opportunities and needs in research and development from planned interventions in innovation systems. This study chose Phyllanthus niruri, known as "stone break" to describe the knowledge about the specie, by using biotechnological forecasting through the software Vantage Point. It can be seen a considerable increase in studies on Phyllanthus niruri in recent years and that there are patents about this plant since twenty-five years ago. India was the country that most carried out research on the specie, showing interest, mainly in studies of hepatoprotection, antioxidant and anti-cancer activities. Brazil is in the second place, with special interest for anti-tumor studies. Given the identification of the Brazilian groups that exploit the species it is possible to mediate partnerships and cooperation aiming to help on the implementing of the Program of Herbal medicines (phytotherapics) in Brazil.

Keywords: Phyllanthus niruri, phytotherapics, technological forecasting.

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1532 Reducing Cognitive Load in Learning Computer Programming

Authors: Muhammed Yousoof, Mohd Sapiyan, Khaja Kamaluddin

Abstract:

Many difficulties are faced in the process of learning computer programming. This paper will propose a system framework intended to reduce cognitive load in learning programming. In first section focus is given on the process of learning and the shortcomings of the current approaches to learning programming. Finally the proposed prototype is suggested along with the justification of the prototype. In the proposed prototype the concept map is used as visualization metaphor. Concept maps are similar to the mental schema in long term memory and hence it can reduce cognitive load well. In addition other method such as part code method is also proposed in this framework to can reduce cognitive load.

Keywords: Cognitive load, concept maps, working memory, split attention effect, partial code programs.

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1531 Limit State of Trapezoidal Metal Sheets Exposed to Concentrated Load

Authors: Kateřina Jurdová

Abstract:

In most industrial compounds are used trapezoidal metal sheets like a roof decks. These trapezoidal metal sheets are exposed by concentrated loads, usually by service loads arise from installation of air distribution, sanitary distribution, sprinkler system or wiring installation. In objects of public facilities (like shopping centre, tennis hall, etc.) they can be used for hanging advertising posters etc, too. These systems work as “building kit”. These anchoring systems are represented by clamps in shape of “V”.

This paper is occupy with recapitulation of installation systems available in trade with focus on load-bearing capacity specified by producer and on possible methods, how exactly define load bearing capacity of trapezoidal sheet loaded by concentrated load. The load bearing capacity was verified at experimental samples to determine real behavior of trapezoidal metal sheets exposed to concentrated loads.

Keywords: Clamps, concentrated load, loading test, trapezoidal metal sheet.

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1530 A Framework for University Social Responsibility and Sustainability: The Case of South Valley University, Egypt

Authors: Alaa Tag Eldin Mohamed

Abstract:

The environmental, cultural, social, and technological changes have led higher education institutes to question their traditional roles. Many declarations and frameworks highlight the importance of fulfilling social responsibility of higher education institutes. The study aims at developing a framework of university social responsibility and sustainability (USR&S) with focus on South Valley University (SVU) as a case study of Egyptian Universities. The study used meetings with 12 vice deans of community services and environmental affairs on social responsibility and environmental issues. The proposed framework integrates social responsibility with strategic management through the establishment and maintenance of the vision, mission, values, goals and management systems; elaboration of policies; provision of actions; evaluation of services and development of social collaboration with stakeholders to meet current and future needs of the community and environment. The framework links between different stakeholders internally and externally using communication and reporting tools. The results show that SVU integrates social responsibility and sustainability in its strategic plans. It has policies and actions however fragmented and lack of appropriate structure and budgeting. The proposed framework could be valuable for researchers and decision makers of the Egyptian Universities. The study proposed recommendations and highlighted building on the results and conducting future research.

Keywords: Corporate social responsibility (CSR), South Valley University, Sustainable University, university social responsibility and sustainability (USR&S).

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1529 Development of Cooling Demand by Computerize

Authors: Bobby Anak John, Zamri Noranai, Md. Norrizam Mohmad Jaat, Hamidon Salleh, Mohammad Zainal Md Yusof

Abstract:

Air conditioning is mainly use as human comfort cooling medium. It use more in high temperatures are country such as Malaysia. Proper estimation of cooling load will archive ideal temperature. Without proper estimation can lead to over estimation or under estimation. The ideal temperature should be comfort enough. This study is to develop a program to calculate an ideal cooling load demand, which is match with heat gain. Through this study, it is easy to calculate cooling load estimation. Objective of this study are to develop user-friendly and easy excess cooling load program. This is to insure the cooling load can be estimate by any of the individual rather than them using rule-of-thumb. Developed software is carryout by using Matlab-GUI. These developments are only valid for common building in Malaysia only. An office building was select as case study to verify the applicable and accuracy of develop software. In conclusion, the main objective has successfully where developed software is user friendly and easily to estimate cooling load demand.

Keywords: Cooling Load, Heat Gain, Building and GUI.

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1528 Nodal Load Profiles Estimation for Time Series Load Flow Using Independent Component Analysis

Authors: Mashitah Mohd Hussain, Salleh Serwan, Zuhaina Hj Zakaria

Abstract:

This paper presents a method to estimate load profile in a multiple power flow solutions for every minutes in 24 hours per day. A method to calculate multiple solutions of non linear profile is introduced. The Power System Simulation/Engineering (PSS®E) and python has been used to solve the load power flow. The result of this power flow solutions has been used to estimate the load profiles for each load at buses using Independent Component Analysis (ICA) without any knowledge of parameter and network topology of the systems. The proposed algorithm is tested with IEEE 69 test bus system represents for distribution part and the method of ICA has been programmed in MATLAB R2012b version. Simulation results and errors of estimations are discussed in this paper.

Keywords: Electrical Distribution System, Power Flow Solution, Distribution Network, Independent Component Analysis, Newton Raphson, Power System Simulation for Engineering.

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