Search results for: parameters estimation
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 4489

Search results for: parameters estimation

4399 A Novel Multiresolution based Optimization Scheme for Robust Affine Parameter Estimation

Authors: J.Dinesh Peter

Abstract:

This paper describes a new method for affine parameter estimation between image sequences. Usually, the parameter estimation techniques can be done by least squares in a quadratic way. However, this technique can be sensitive to the presence of outliers. Therefore, parameter estimation techniques for various image processing applications are robust enough to withstand the influence of outliers. Progressively, some robust estimation functions demanding non-quadratic and perhaps non-convex potentials adopted from statistics literature have been used for solving these. Addressing the optimization of the error function in a factual framework for finding a global optimal solution, the minimization can begin with the convex estimator at the coarser level and gradually introduce nonconvexity i.e., from soft to hard redescending non-convex estimators when the iteration reaches finer level of multiresolution pyramid. Comparison has been made to find the performance of the results of proposed method with the results found individually using two different estimators.

Keywords: Image Processing, Affine parameter estimation, Outliers, Robust Statistics, Robust M-estimators

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4398 Exponentiated Transmuted Weibull Distribution A Generalization of the Weibull Distribution

Authors: Abd El Hady N. Ebraheim

Abstract:

This paper introduces a new generalization of the two parameter Weibull distribution. To this end, the quadratic rank transmutation map has been used. This new distribution is named exponentiated transmuted Weibull (ETW) distribution. The ETW distribution has the advantage of being capable of modeling various shapes of aging and failure criteria. Furthermore, eleven lifetime distributions such as the Weibull, exponentiated Weibull, Rayleigh and exponential distributions, among others follow as special cases. The properties of the new model are discussed and the maximum likelihood estimation is used to estimate the parameters. Explicit expressions are derived for the quantiles. The moments of the distribution are derived, and the order statistics are examined.

Keywords: Exponentiated, Inversion Method, Maximum Likelihood Estimation, Transmutation Map.

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4397 Newton-Raphson State Estimation Solution Employing Systematically Constructed Jacobian Matrix

Authors: Nursyarizal Mohd Nor, Ramiah Jegatheesan, Perumal Nallagownden

Abstract:

Newton-Raphson State Estimation method using bus admittance matrix remains as an efficient and most popular method to estimate the state variables. Elements of Jacobian matrix are computed from standard expressions which lack physical significance. In this paper, elements of the state estimation Jacobian matrix are obtained considering the power flow measurements in the network elements. These elements are processed one-by-one and the Jacobian matrix H is updated suitably in a simple manner. The constructed Jacobian matrix H is integrated with Weight Least Square method to estimate the state variables. The suggested procedure is successfully tested on IEEE standard systems.

Keywords: State Estimation (SE), Weight Least Square (WLS), Newton-Raphson State Estimation (NRSE), Jacobian matrix H.

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4396 Techniques for Video Mosaicing

Authors: P.Saravanan, Narayanan .C.K., P.V.S.S Prakash, Prabhakara Rao .G.V

Abstract:

Video Mosaicing is the stitching of selected frames of a video by estimating the camera motion between the frames and thereby registering successive frames of the video to arrive at the mosaic. Different techniques have been proposed in the literature for video mosaicing. Despite of the large number of papers dealing with techniques to generate mosaic, only a few authors have investigated conditions under which these techniques generate good estimate of motion parameters. In this paper, these techniques are studied under different videos, and the reasons for failures are found. We propose algorithms with incorporation of outlier removal algorithms for better estimation of motion parameters.

Keywords: Motion parameters, Outlier removal algorithms, Registering , and Video Mosaicing.

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4395 Real Time Speed Estimation of Vehicles

Authors: Azhar Hussain, Kashif Shahzad, Chunming Tang

Abstract:

this paper gives a novel approach towards real-time speed estimation of multiple traffic vehicles using fuzzy logic and image processing techniques with proper arrangement of camera parameters. The described algorithm consists of several important steps. First, the background is estimated by computing median over time window of specific frames. Second, the foreground is extracted using fuzzy similarity approach (FSA) between estimated background pixels and the current frame pixels containing foreground and background. Third, the traffic lanes are divided into two parts for both direction vehicles for parallel processing. Finally, the speeds of vehicles are estimated by Maximum a Posterior Probability (MAP) estimator. True ground speed is determined by utilizing infrared sensors for three different vehicles and the results are compared to the proposed algorithm with an accuracy of ± 0.74 kmph.

Keywords: Defuzzification, Fuzzy similarity approach, lane cropping, Maximum a Posterior Probability (MAP) estimator, Speed estimation

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4394 Stature Estimation Based On Lower Limb Dimensions in the Malaysian Population

Authors: F. M. Nor, N. Abdullah, Al-M. Mustapa, L. Q. Wen, N. A. Faisal, D. A. A. Ahmad Nazari

Abstract:

Estimation of stature is an important step in developing a biological profile for human identification. It may provide a valuable indicator for unknown individual in a population. The aim of this study was to analyses the relationship between stature and lower limb dimensions in the Malaysian population. The sample comprised 100 corpses, which included 69 males and 31 females between age ranges of 20 to 90 years old. The parameters measured were stature, thigh length, lower leg length, leg length, foot length, foot height and foot breadth. Results showed that mean values in males were significantly higher than those in females (P < 0.05). There were significant correlations between lower limb dimensions and stature. Cross-validation of the equation on 100 individuals showed close approximation between known stature and estimated stature. It was concluded that lower limb dimensions were useful for estimation of stature, which should be validated in future studies. 

Keywords: Forensic anthropology population data, lower leg length, Malaysian, stature.

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4393 Influential Parameters in Estimating Soil Properties from Cone Penetrating Test: An Artificial Neural Network Study

Authors: Ahmed G. Mahgoub, Dahlia H. Hafez, Mostafa A. Abu Kiefa

Abstract:

The Cone Penetration Test (CPT) is a common in-situ test which generally investigates a much greater volume of soil more quickly than possible from sampling and laboratory tests. Therefore, it has the potential to realize both cost savings and assessment of soil properties rapidly and continuously. The principle objective of this paper is to demonstrate the feasibility and efficiency of using artificial neural networks (ANNs) to predict the soil angle of internal friction (Φ) and the soil modulus of elasticity (E) from CPT results considering the uncertainties and non-linearities of the soil. In addition, ANNs are used to study the influence of different parameters and recommend which parameters should be included as input parameters to improve the prediction. Neural networks discover relationships in the input data sets through the iterative presentation of the data and intrinsic mapping characteristics of neural topologies. General Regression Neural Network (GRNN) is one of the powerful neural network architectures which is utilized in this study. A large amount of field and experimental data including CPT results, plate load tests, direct shear box, grain size distribution and calculated data of overburden pressure was obtained from a large project in the United Arab Emirates. This data was used for the training and the validation of the neural network. A comparison was made between the obtained results from the ANN's approach, and some common traditional correlations that predict Φ and E from CPT results with respect to the actual results of the collected data. The results show that the ANN is a very powerful tool. Very good agreement was obtained between estimated results from ANN and actual measured results with comparison to other correlations available in the literature. The study recommends some easily available parameters that should be included in the estimation of the soil properties to improve the prediction models. It is shown that the use of friction ration in the estimation of Φ and the use of fines content in the estimation of E considerable improve the prediction models.

Keywords: Angle of internal friction, Cone penetrating test, General regression neural network, Soil modulus of elasticity.

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4392 The Sequential Estimation of the Seismoacoustic Source Energy in C-OTDR Monitoring Systems

Authors: Andrey V. Timofeev, Dmitry V. Egorov

Abstract:

The practical efficient approach is suggested for estimation of the seismoacoustic sources energy in C-OTDR monitoring systems. This approach is represents the sequential plan for confidence estimation both the seismoacoustic sources energy, as well the absorption coefficient of the soil. The sequential plan delivers the non-asymptotic guaranteed accuracy of obtained estimates in the form of non-asymptotic confidence regions with prescribed sizes. These confidence regions are valid for a finite sample size when the distributions of the observations are unknown. Thus, suggested estimates are non-asymptotic and nonparametric, and also these estimates guarantee the prescribed estimation accuracy in form of prior prescribed size of confidence regions, and prescribed confidence coefficient value.

Keywords: C-OTDR-system, guaranteed estimates, nonparametric estimation, sequential confidence estimation, multichannel monitoring systems.

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4391 Online Estimation of Clutch Drag Torque in Wet Dual Clutch Transmission Based on Recursive Least Squares

Authors: Hongkui Li, Tongli Lu , Jianwu Zhang

Abstract:

This paper focuses on developing an estimation method of clutch drag torque in wet DCT. The modelling of clutch drag torque is investigated. As the main factor affecting the clutch drag torque, dynamic viscosity of oil is discussed. The paper proposes an estimation method of clutch drag torque based on recursive least squares by utilizing the dynamic equations of gear shifting synchronization process. The results demonstrate that the estimation method has good accuracy and efficiency.

Keywords: Clutch drag torque, wet DCT, dynamic viscosity, recursive least squares.

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4390 A Novel Estimation Method for Integer Frequency Offset in Wireless OFDM Systems

Authors: Taeung Yoon, Youngpo Lee, Chonghan Song, Na Young Ha, Seokho Yoon

Abstract:

Ren et al. presented an efficient carrier frequency offset (CFO) estimation method for orthogonal frequency division multiplexing (OFDM), which has an estimation range as large as the bandwidth of the OFDM signal and achieves high accuracy without any constraint on the structure of the training sequence. However, its detection probability of the integer frequency offset (IFO) rapidly varies according to the fractional frequency offset (FFO) change. In this paper, we first analyze the Ren-s method and define two criteria suitable for detection of IFO. Then, we propose a novel method for the IFO estimation based on the maximum-likelihood (ML) principle and the detection criteria defined in this paper. The simulation results demonstrate that the proposed method outperforms the Ren-s method in terms of the IFO detection probability irrespective of a value of the FFO.

Keywords: Orthogonal frequency division multiplexing, integer frequency offset, estimation, training symbol

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4389 The Gasoil Hydrofining Kinetics Constants Identification

Authors: C. Patrascioiu, V. Matei, N. Nicolae

Abstract:

The paper describes the experiments and the kinetic parameters calculus of the gasoil hydrofining. They are presented experimental results of gasoil hidrofining using Mo and promoted with Ni on aluminum support catalyst. The authors have adapted a kinetic model gasoil hydrofining. Using this proposed kinetic model and the experimental data they have calculated the parameters of the model. The numerical calculus is based on minimizing the difference between the experimental sulf concentration and kinetic model estimation.

Keywords: Hydrofining, kinetic, modeling, optimization.

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4388 Blind Channel Estimation Based on URV Decomposition Technique for Uplink of MC-CDMA

Authors: Pradya Pornnimitkul, Suwich Kunaruttanapruk, Bamrung Tau Sieskul, Somchai Jitapunkul

Abstract:

In this paper, we investigate a blind channel estimation method for Multi-carrier CDMA systems that use a subspace decomposition technique. This technique exploits the orthogonality property between the noise subspace and the received user codes to obtain channel of each user. In the past we used Singular Value Decomposition (SVD) technique but SVD have most computational complexity so in this paper use a new algorithm called URV Decomposition, which serve as an intermediary between the QR decomposition and SVD, replaced in SVD technique to track the noise space of the received data. Because of the URV decomposition has almost the same estimation performance as the SVD, but has less computational complexity.

Keywords: Channel estimation, MC-CDMA, SVD, URV.

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4387 Traffic Density Estimation for Multiple Segment Freeways

Authors: Karandeep Singh, Baibing Li

Abstract:

Traffic density, an indicator of traffic conditions, is one of the most critical characteristics to Intelligent Transport Systems (ITS). This paper investigates recursive traffic density estimation using the information provided from inductive loop detectors. On the basis of the phenomenological relationship between speed and density, the existing studies incorporate a state space model and update the density estimate using vehicular speed observations via the extended Kalman filter, where an approximation is made because of the linearization of the nonlinear observation equation. In practice, this may lead to substantial estimation errors. This paper incorporates a suitable transformation to deal with the nonlinear observation equation so that the approximation is avoided when using Kalman filter to estimate the traffic density. A numerical study is conducted. It is shown that the developed method outperforms the existing methods for traffic density estimation.

Keywords: Density estimation, Kalman filter, speed-densityrelationship, Traffic surveillance.

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4386 State Estimation Method Based on Unscented Kalman Filter for Vehicle Nonlinear Dynamics

Authors: Wataru Nakamura, Tomoaki Hashimoto, Liang-Kuang Chen

Abstract:

This paper provides a state estimation method for automatic control systems of nonlinear vehicle dynamics. A nonlinear tire model is employed to represent the realistic behavior of a vehicle. In general, all the state variables of control systems are not precisedly known, because those variables are observed through output sensors and limited parts of them might be only measurable. Hence, automatic control systems must incorporate some type of state estimation. It is needed to establish a state estimation method for nonlinear vehicle dynamics with restricted measurable state variables. For this purpose, unscented Kalman filter method is applied in this study for estimating the state variables of nonlinear vehicle dynamics. The objective of this paper is to propose a state estimation method using unscented Kalman filter for nonlinear vehicle dynamics. The effectiveness of the proposed method is verified by numerical simulations.

Keywords: State estimation, control systems, observer systems, unscented Kalman filter, nonlinear vehicle dynamics.

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4385 Electric Load Forecasting Using Genetic Based Algorithm, Optimal Filter Estimator and Least Error Squares Technique: Comparative Study

Authors: Khaled M. EL-Naggar, Khaled A. AL-Rumaih

Abstract:

This paper presents performance comparison of three estimation techniques used for peak load forecasting in power systems. The three optimum estimation techniques are, genetic algorithms (GA), least error squares (LS) and, least absolute value filtering (LAVF). The problem is formulated as an estimation problem. Different forecasting models are considered. Actual recorded data is used to perform the study. The performance of the above three optimal estimation techniques is examined. Advantages of each algorithms are reported and discussed.

Keywords: Forecasting, Least error squares, Least absolute Value, Genetic algorithms

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4384 Formant Tracking Linear Prediction Model using HMMs for Noisy Speech Processing

Authors: Zaineb Ben Messaoud, Dorra Gargouri, Saida Zribi, Ahmed Ben Hamida

Abstract:

This paper presents a formant-tracking linear prediction (FTLP) model for speech processing in noise. The main focus of this work is the detection of formant trajectory based on Hidden Markov Models (HMM), for improved formant estimation in noise. The approach proposed in this paper provides a systematic framework for modelling and utilization of a time- sequence of peaks which satisfies continuity constraints on parameter; the within peaks are modelled by the LP parameters. The formant tracking LP model estimation is composed of three stages: (1) a pre-cleaning multi-band spectral subtraction stage to reduce the effect of residue noise on formants (2) estimation stage where an initial estimate of the LP model of speech for each frame is obtained (3) a formant classification using probability models of formants and Viterbi-decoders. The evaluation results for the estimation of the formant tracking LP model tested in Gaussian white noise background, demonstrate that the proposed combination of the initial noise reduction stage with formant tracking and LPC variable order analysis, results in a significant reduction in errors and distortions. The performance was evaluated with noisy natual vowels extracted from international french and English vocabulary speech signals at SNR value of 10dB. In each case, the estimated formants are compared to reference formants.

Keywords: Formants Estimation, HMM, Multi Band Spectral Subtraction, Variable order LPC coding, White Gauusien Noise.

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4383 Zero Inflated Strict Arcsine Regression Model

Authors: Y. N. Phang, E. F. Loh

Abstract:

Zero inflated strict arcsine model is a newly developed model which is found to be appropriate in modeling overdispersed count data. In this study, we extend zero inflated strict arcsine model to zero inflated strict arcsine regression model by taking into consideration the extra variability caused by extra zeros and covariates in count data. Maximum likelihood estimation method is used in estimating the parameters for this zero inflated strict arcsine regression model.

Keywords: Overdispersed count data, maximum likelihood estimation, simulated annealing.

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4382 Exponentially Weighted Simultaneous Estimation of Several Quantiles

Authors: Valeriy Naumov, Olli Martikainen

Abstract:

In this paper we propose new method for simultaneous generating multiple quantiles corresponding to given probability levels from data streams and massive data sets. This method provides a basis for development of single-pass low-storage quantile estimation algorithms, which differ in complexity, storage requirement and accuracy. We demonstrate that such algorithms may perform well even for heavy-tailed data.

Keywords: Quantile estimation, data stream, heavy-taileddistribution, tail index.

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4381 Implementation of Channel Estimation and Timing Synchronization Algorithms for MIMO-OFDM System Using NI USRP 2920

Authors: Ali Beydoun, Hamzé H. Alaeddine

Abstract:

MIMO-OFDM communication system presents a key solution for the next generation of mobile communication due to its high spectral efficiency, high data rate and robustness against multi-path fading channels. However, MIMO-OFDM system requires a perfect knowledge of the channel state information and a good synchronization between the transmitter and the receiver to achieve the expected performances. Recently, we have proposed two algorithms for channel estimation and timing synchronization with good performances and very low implementation complexity compared to those proposed in the literature. In order to validate and evaluate the efficiency of these algorithms in real environments, this paper presents in detail the implementation of 2 × 2 MIMO-OFDM system based on LabVIEW and USRP 2920. Implementation results show a good agreement with the simulation results under different configuration parameters.

Keywords: MIMO-OFDM system, timing synchronization, channel estimation, STBC, USRP 2920.

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4380 Stochastic Estimation of Wireless Traffic Parameters

Authors: Somenath Mukherjee, Raj Kumar Samanta, Gautam Sanyal

Abstract:

Different services based on different switching techniques in wireless networks leads to drastic changes in the properties of network traffic. Because of these diversities in services, network traffic is expected to undergo qualitative and quantitative variations. Hence, assumption of traffic characteristics and the prediction of network events become more complex for the wireless networks. In this paper, the traffic characteristics have been studied by collecting traces from the mobile switching centre (MSC). The traces include initiation and termination time, originating node, home station id, foreign station id. Traffic parameters namely, call interarrival and holding times were estimated statistically. The results show that call inter-arrival and distribution time in this wireless network is heavy-tailed and follow gamma distributions. They are asymptotically long-range dependent. It is also found that the call holding times are best fitted with lognormal distribution. Based on these observations, an analytical model for performance estimation is also proposed.

Keywords: Wireless networks, traffic analysis, long-range dependence, heavy-tailed distribution.

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4379 Sliding-Mode Control of a Permanent-Magnet Synchronous Motor with Uncertainty Estimation

Authors: Markus Reichhartinger, Martin Horn

Abstract:

In this paper, the application of sliding-mode control to a permanent-magnet synchronous motor (PMSM) is presented. The control design is based on a generic mathematical model of the motor. Some dynamics of the motor and of the power amplification stage remain unmodelled. This model uncertainty is estimated in realtime. The estimation is based on the differentiation of measured signals using the ideas of robust exact differentiator (RED). The control law is implemented on an industrial servo drive. Simulations and experimental results are presented and compared to the same control strategy without uncertainty estimation. It turns out that the proposed concept is superior to the same control strategy without uncertainty estimation especially in the case of non-smooth reference signals.

Keywords: sliding-mode control, Permanent-magnet synchronous motor, uncertainty estimation, robust exact differentiator.

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4378 A Modified Genetic Based Technique for Solving the Power System State Estimation Problem

Authors: A. A. Hossam-Eldin, E. N. Abdallah, M. S. El-Nozahy

Abstract:

Power system state estimation is the process of calculating a reliable estimate of the power system state vector composed of bus voltages' angles and magnitudes from telemetered measurements on the system. This estimate of the state vector provides the description of the system necessary for the operation and security monitoring. Many methods are described in the literature for solving the state estimation problem, the most important of which are the classical weighted least squares method and the nondeterministic genetic based method; however both showed drawbacks. In this paper a modified version of the genetic algorithm power system state estimation is introduced, Sensitivity of the proposed algorithm to genetic operators is discussed, the algorithm is applied to case studies and finally it is compared with the classical weighted least squares method formulation.

Keywords: Genetic algorithms, ill-conditioning, state estimation, weighted least squares.

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4377 Motion Area Estimated Motion Estimation with Triplet Search Patterns for H.264/AVC

Authors: T. Song, T. Shimamoto

Abstract:

In this paper a fast motion estimation method for H.264/AVC named Triplet Search Motion Estimation (TS-ME) is proposed. Similar to some of the traditional fast motion estimation methods and their improved proposals which restrict the search points only to some selected candidates to decrease the computation complexity, proposed algorithm separate the motion search process to several steps but with some new features. First, proposed algorithm try to search the real motion area using proposed triplet patterns instead of some selected search points to avoid dropping into the local minimum. Then, in the localized motion area a novel 3-step motion search algorithm is performed. Proposed search patterns are categorized into three rings on the basis of the distance from the search center. These three rings are adaptively selected by referencing the surrounding motion vectors to early terminate the motion search process. On the other hand, computation reduction for sub pixel motion search is also discussed considering the appearance probability of the sub pixel motion vector. From the simulation results, motion estimation speed improved by a factor of up to 38 when using proposed algorithm than that of the reference software of H.264/AVC with ignorable picture quality loss.

Keywords: Motion estimation, VLSI, image processing, search patterns

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4376 Improved Torque Control of Electrical Load Simulator with Parameters and State Estimation

Authors: Nasim Ullah, Shaoping Wang

Abstract:

ELS is an important ground based hardware in the loop simulator used for aerodynamics torque loading experiments of the actuators under test. This work focuses on improvement of the transient response of torque controller with parameters uncertainty of Electrical Load Simulator (ELS).The parameters of load simulator are estimated online and the model is updated, eliminating the model error and improving the steady state torque tracking response of torque controller. To improve the Transient control performance the gain of robust term of SMC is updated online using fuzzy logic system based on the amount of uncertainty in parameters of load simulator. The states of load simulator which cannot be measured directly are estimated using luenberger observer with update of new estimated parameters. The stability of the control scheme is verified using Lyapunov theorem. The validity of proposed control scheme is verified using simulations.

Keywords: ELS, Observer, Transient Performance, SMC, Extra Torque, Fuzzy Logic.

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4375 Optimization of the Transfer Molding Process by Implementation of Online Monitoring Techniques for Electronic Packages

Authors: Burcu Kaya, Jan-Martin Kaiser, Karl-Friedrich Becker, Tanja Braun, Klaus-Dieter Lang

Abstract:

Quality of the molded packages is strongly influenced by the process parameters of the transfer molding. To achieve a better package quality and a stable transfer molding process, it is necessary to understand the influence of the process parameters on the package quality. This work aims to comprehend the relationship between the process parameters, and to identify the optimum process parameters for the transfer molding process in order to achieve less voids and wire sweep. To achieve this, a DoE is executed for process optimization and a regression analysis is carried out. A systematic approach is represented to generate models which enable an estimation of the number of voids and wire sweep. Validation experiments are conducted to verify the model and the results are presented.

Keywords: Epoxy molding compounds, optimization, regression analysis, transfer molding process, voids, wire sweep.

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4374 Hardware Implementation of Local Binary Pattern Based Two-Bit Transform Motion Estimation

Authors: Seda Yavuz, Anıl Çelebi, Aysun Taşyapı Çelebi, Oğuzhan Urhan

Abstract:

Nowadays, demand for using real-time video transmission capable devices is ever-increasing. So, high resolution videos have made efficient video compression techniques an essential component for capturing and transmitting video data. Motion estimation has a critical role in encoding raw video. Hence, various motion estimation methods are introduced to efficiently compress the video. Low bit‑depth representation based motion estimation methods facilitate computation of matching criteria and thus, provide small hardware footprint. In this paper, a hardware implementation of a two-bit transformation based low-complexity motion estimation method using local binary pattern approach is proposed. Image frames are represented in two-bit depth instead of full-depth by making use of the local binary pattern as a binarization approach and the binarization part of the hardware architecture is explained in detail. Experimental results demonstrate the difference between the proposed hardware architecture and the architectures of well-known low-complexity motion estimation methods in terms of important aspects such as resource utilization, energy and power consumption.

Keywords: Binarization, hardware architecture, local binary pattern, motion estimation, two-bit transform.

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4373 Software Engineering Inspired Cost Estimation for Process Modelling

Authors: Felix Baumann, Aleksandar Milutinovic, Dieter Roller

Abstract:

Up to this point business process management projects in general and business process modelling projects in particular could not rely on a practical and scientifically validated method to estimate cost and effort. Especially the model development phase is not covered by a cost estimation method or model. Further phases of business process modelling starting with implementation are covered by initial solutions which are discussed in the literature. This article proposes a method of filling this gap by deriving a cost estimation method from available methods in similar domains namely software development or software engineering. Software development is regarded as closely similar to process modelling as we show. After the proposition of this method different ideas for further analysis and validation of the method are proposed. We derive this method from COCOMO II and Function Point which are established methods of effort estimation in the domain of software development. For this we lay out similarities of the software development process and the process of process modelling which is a phase of the Business Process Management life-cycle.

Keywords: Cost Estimation, Effort Estimation, Process Modelling, Business Process Management, COCOMO.

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4372 A Rule-based Approach for Anomaly Detection in Subscriber Usage Pattern

Authors: Rupesh K. Gopal, Saroj K. Meher

Abstract:

In this report we present a rule-based approach to detect anomalous telephone calls. The method described here uses subscriber usage CDR (call detail record) data sampled over two observation periods: study period and test period. The study period contains call records of customers- non-anomalous behaviour. Customers are first grouped according to their similar usage behaviour (like, average number of local calls per week, etc). For customers in each group, we develop a probabilistic model to describe their usage. Next, we use maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) to estimate the parameters of the calling behaviour. Then we determine thresholds by calculating acceptable change within a group. MLE is used on the data in the test period to estimate the parameters of the calling behaviour. These parameters are compared against thresholds. Any deviation beyond the threshold is used to raise an alarm. This method has the advantage of identifying local anomalies as compared to techniques which identify global anomalies. The method is tested for 90 days of study data and 10 days of test data of telecom customers. For medium to large deviations in the data in test window, the method is able to identify 90% of anomalous usage with less than 1% false alarm rate.

Keywords: Subscription fraud, fraud detection, anomalydetection, maximum likelihood estimation, rule based systems.

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4371 Parametric Cost Estimating Relationships for Design Effort Estimation

Authors: Adil Salam, Nadia Bhuiyan, Gerard J. Gouw

Abstract:

The Canadian aerospace industry faces many challenges. One of them is the difficulty in estimating costs. In particular, the design effort required in a project impacts resource requirements and lead-time, and consequently the final cost. This paper presents the findings of a case study conducted for recognized global leader in the design and manufacturing of aircraft engines. The study models parametric cost estimation relationships to estimate the design effort of integrated blade-rotor low-pressure compressor fans. Several effort drivers are selected to model the relationship. Comparative analyses of three types of models are conducted. The model with the best accuracy and significance in design estimation is retained.

Keywords: Effort estimation, design, aerospace.

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4370 Life Estimation of Induction Motor Insulation under Non-Sinusoidal Voltage and Current Waveforms Using Fuzzy Logic

Authors: Triloksingh G. Arora, Mohan V. Aware, Dhananjay R. Tutakne

Abstract:

Thyristor based firing angle controlled voltage regulators are extensively used for speed control of single phase induction motors. This leads to power saving but the applied voltage and current waveforms become non-sinusoidal. These non-sinusoidal waveforms increase voltage and thermal stresses which result into accelerated insulation aging, thus reducing the motor life. Life models that allow predicting the capability of insulation under such multi-stress situations tend to be very complex and somewhat impractical. This paper presents the fuzzy logic application to investigate the synergic effect of voltage and thermal stresses on intrinsic aging of induction motor insulation. A fuzzy expert system is developed to estimate the life of induction motor insulation under multiple stresses. Three insulation degradation parameters, viz. peak modification factor, wave shape modification factor and thermal loss are experimentally obtained for different firing angles. Fuzzy expert system consists of fuzzyfication of the insulation degradation parameters, algorithms based on inverse power law to estimate the life and defuzzyficaton process to output the life. An electro-thermal life model is developed from the results of fuzzy expert system. This fuzzy logic based electro-thermal life model can be used for life estimation of induction motors operated with non-sinusoidal voltage and current waveforms.

Keywords: Aging, Dielectric losses, Insulation and Life Estimation.

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