Search results for: monthly precipitation

Authors: Hermenegilde Nkurunziza, Albrecht Gebhardt, Juergen Pilz

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The focus in this work is to assess which method allows a better forecasting of malaria cases in Bujumbura ( Burundi) when taking into account association between climatic factors and the disease. For the period 1996-2007, real monthly data on both malaria epidemiology and climate in Bujumbura are described and analyzed. We propose a hierarchical approach to achieve our objective. We first fit a Generalized Additive Model to malaria cases to obtain an accurate predictor, which is then used to predict future observations. Various well-known forecasting methods are compared leading to different results. Based on in-sample mean average percentage error (MAPE), the multiplicative exponential smoothing state space model with multiplicative error and seasonality performed better.

Keywords: Burundi, Forecasting, Malaria, Regressionmodel, State space model.

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Authors: Maria V. Morozova, Zoya A. Mikhaylovskaya, Elena S. Buyanova, Sofia A. Petrova, Ksenia V. Arishina, Robert G. Zaharov

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The present work is devoted to the investigation of two series of doped bismuth molybdates: Bi_26-2xMn_2xMo₁₀O_69-d and Bi₂₆Mo_10-2yMn_2yO_69-d. Complex oxides were synthesized by conventional solid state technology and by co-precipitation method. The products were identified by powder diffraction. The powders and ceramic samples were examined by means of densitometry, laser diffraction, and electron microscopic methods. Porosity of the ceramic materials was estimated using the hydrostatic method. The electrical conductivity measurements were carried out using impedance spectroscopy method.

Keywords: Bismuth molybdate, columnar structures, impedance spectroscopy, oxygen ionic conductors.

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Authors: Wint Thida Zaw, Thinn Thu Naing

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One of the essential sectors of Myanmar economy is agriculture which is sensitive to climate variation. The most important climatic element which impacts on agriculture sector is rainfall. Thus rainfall prediction becomes an important issue in agriculture country. Multi variables polynomial regression (MPR) provides an effective way to describe complex nonlinear input output relationships so that an outcome variable can be predicted from the other or others. In this paper, the modeling of monthly rainfall prediction over Myanmar is described in detail by applying the polynomial regression equation. The proposed model results are compared to the results produced by multiple linear regression model (MLR). Experiments indicate that the prediction model based on MPR has higher accuracy than using MLR.

Keywords: Polynomial Regression, Rainfall Forecasting, Statistical forecasting.

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Authors: E. F. Ochulor, S. O. Adeosun, S. A. Balogun

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Effect of sprue/metal head height on mould filling, microstructure and mechanical properties of TWDI casting is studied. Results show that metal/sprue height of 50 mm is not sufficient to push the melt through the gating channel, but as it is increased from 100-350 mm, proper mould filling is achieved. However at higher heights between 200 mm and 350 mm, defects associated with incomplete solidification, carbide precipitation and turbulent flow are evident. This research shows that superior UTS, hardness, nodularity and nodule count are obtained at 100 mm sprue height.

Keywords: Melt pressure and velocity, nodularity, nodule count, sprue height.

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Authors: Liubov Evstigneeva

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In this paper an attempt is made to establish causal nexuses between innovation and international trade in Russia. The topicality of this issue is determined by the necessity of choosing policy instruments for economic modernization and transition to innovative development. The vector auto regression (VAR) model and Granger test are applied for the Russian monthly data from 2005 until the second quartile of 2015. Both lagged import and export at the national level cause innovation, the latter starts to stimulate foreign trade since it is a remote lag. In comparison to aggregate data, the results by patent’s categories are more diverse. Importing technologies from foreign countries stimulates patent activity, while innovations created in Russia are only Granger causality for import to Commonwealth of Independent States.

Keywords: Export, import, innovation, patents.

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Authors: Ε. Giovanis

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In this paper we apply an Adaptive Network-Based Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) with one input, the dependent variable with one lag, for the forecasting of four macroeconomic variables of US economy, the Gross Domestic Product, the inflation rate, six monthly treasury bills interest rates and unemployment rate. We compare the forecasting performance of ANFIS with those of the widely used linear autoregressive and nonlinear smoothing transition autoregressive (STAR) models. The results are greatly in favour of ANFIS indicating that is an effective tool for macroeconomic forecasting used in academic research and in research and application by the governmental and other institutions

Keywords: Linear models, Macroeconomics, Neuro-Fuzzy, Non-Linear models

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Authors: Victor E. Gromov, Yurii F. Ivanov, Vadim B. Kosterev, Sergey V. Konovalov, Veronica I. Myasnikova, Guoyi Tang

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A study of the H-beam's nanosize structure phase states after thermomechanical strengthening was carried out by TEM. The following processes were analyzed. 1. The dispersing of the cementite plates by cutting them by moving dislocations. 2. The dissolution of cementite plates and repeated precipitation of the cementite particles on the dislocations, the boundaries, subgrains and grains. 3. The decay of solid solution of carbon in the α-iron after "self-tempering" of martensite. 4. The final transformation of the retained austenite in beinite with α-iron particles and cementite formation. 5. The implementation of the diffusion mechanism of γ ⇒ α transformation.

Keywords: nanosize, phase, steel, strengthening

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Authors: Mohammad H. Fattahi

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Chaotic analysis has been performed on the river flow time series before and after applying the wavelet based de-noising techniques in order to investigate the noise content effects on chaotic nature of flow series. In this study, 38 years of monthly runoff data of three gauging stations were used. Gauging stations were located in Ghar-e-Aghaj river basin, Fars province, Iran. Noise level of time series was estimated with the aid of Gaussian kernel algorithm. This step was found to be crucial in preventing removal of the vital data such as memory, correlation and trend from the time series in addition to the noise during de-noising process.

Keywords: Chaotic behavior, wavelet, noise reduction, river flow.

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Authors: W. Kritsarikan, T. Patcharawit, T. Yingnakorn, S. Khumkoa

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Neodymium-iron-boron (NdFeB) magnets classified as high-power magnets are widely used in various applications such as automotive, electrical and medical devices. Because significant amounts of rare earth metals will be subjected to shortages in the future, therefore domestic NdFeB magnet waste recycling should therefore be developed in order to reduce social and environmental impacts towards a circular economy. Each type of wastes has different characteristics and compositions. As a result, these directly affect recycling efficiency as well as types and purity of the recyclable products. This research, therefore, focused on the recycling of manufacturing NdFeB magnet waste obtained from the sintering stage of magnet production and the waste contained 23.6% Nd, 60.3% Fe and 0.261% B in order to recover high purity neodymium oxide (Nd2O3) using hybrid metallurgical process via oxidative roasting and selective leaching techniques. The sintered NdFeB waste was first ground to under 70 mesh prior to oxidative roasting at 550–800 oC to enable selective leaching of neodymium in the subsequent leaching step using H2SO4 at 2.5 M over 24 h. The leachate was then subjected to drying and roasting at 700–800 oC prior to precipitation by oxalic acid and calcination to obtain Nd2O3 as the recycling product. According to XRD analyses, it was found that increasing oxidative roasting temperature led to an increasing amount of hematite (Fe2O3) as the main composition with a smaller amount of magnetite (Fe3O4) found. Peaks of Nd2O3 were also observed in a lesser amount. Furthermore, neodymium iron oxide (NdFeO3) was present and its XRD peaks were pronounced at higher oxidative roasting temperatures. When proceeded to acid leaching and drying, iron sulfate and neodymium sulfate were mainly obtained. After the roasting step prior to water leaching, iron sulfate was converted to form Fe2O3 as the main compound, while neodymium sulfate remained in the ingredient. However, a small amount of Fe3O4 was still detected by XRD. The higher roasting temperature at 800 oC resulted in a greater Fe2O3 to Nd2(SO4)3 ratio, indicating a more effective roasting temperature. Iron oxides were subsequently water leached and filtered out while the solution contained mainly neodymium sulfate. Therefore, low oxidative roasting temperature not exceeding 600 oC followed by acid leaching and roasting at 800 oC gave the optimum condition for further steps of precipitation and calcination to finally achieve Nd2O3.

Keywords: NdFeB magnet waste, oxidative roasting, recycling, selective leaching

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Authors: Amina Amirat, Abdelfettah Bouri

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If price and quantity are the fundamental building blocks of any theory of market interactions, the importance of trading volume in understanding the behavior of financial markets is clear. However, while many economic models of financial markets have been developed to explain the behavior of prices -predictability, variability, and information content- far less attention has been devoted to explaining the behavior of trading volume. In this article, we hope to expand our understanding of trading volume by developing a new measure of herding behavior based on a cross sectional dispersion of volumes betas. We apply our measure to the Toronto stock exchange using monthly data from January 2000 to December 2002. Our findings show that the herd phenomenon consists of three essential components: stationary herding, intentional herding and the feedback herding.

Keywords: Herding behavior, market return, trading volume.

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Authors: Seyed Abbas Tabatabaei

Abstract:

One of the important factors of cracks on the asphalt pavements is bitumen aging that associated with the loss of volatile components and oxidation of asphalt binder. This paper is about effect of Styrene-Butadiene-Styrene (SBS) polymer on asphalt aging In order to decrease asphalt aging effects. For this purpose samples of base bitumen and SBS modified bitumen aged according to the rolling thin film oven test (RTFOT) and pressure aging vessel (PAV), respectively. Properties of each sample were evaluated using Fourier Transform Infrared (FTIR) spectroscopy, n-heptane precipitation, viscosity test, softening point test and penetration test. FT-IR Analysis, showed lower oxidation of SBS modified bitumen than base bitumen, after aging.

Keywords: SBS, Asphalt aging, modified bitumen.

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Authors: Goodness C. Aye

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This paper examines the effect of the volatility of oil prices on food price in South Africa using monthly data covering the period 2002:01 to 2014:09. Food price is measured by the South African consumer price index for food while oil price is proxied by the Brent crude oil. The study employs the GARCH-in-mean VAR model, which allows the investigation of the effect of a negative and positive shock in oil price volatility on food price. The model also allows the oil price uncertainty to be measured as the conditional standard deviation of a one-step-ahead forecast error of the change in oil price. The results show that oil price uncertainty has a positive and significant effect on food price in South Africa. The responses of food price to a positive and negative oil price shocks is asymmetric.

Keywords: Oil price volatility, Food price, Bivariate GARCH-in- mean VAR, Asymmetric.

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Authors: W.M.F. Wan Ishak, N. A. Rowson

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The aim of this study is to compare the effect of the ultrasonic pre treatment on the removal of heavy metals (Iron, Zinc and Copper) from Acid Mine Drainage (AMD) by Denver Cell flotation. Synthetic AMD and individual metal solutions are used in the initial experiments to optimise the process conditions for real AMD. Three different process methods, ultrasound treatment followed by Denver flotation cell, Denver flotation cell alone and ultrasonic treatments run simultaneously with the Denver flotation cell were tested for every sample. Precipitation of the metal solutions by using sodium hydroxide (NaOH) and application of the optimum frother dosage followed by flotation significantly reduced the metal content of the AMD.

Keywords: Ultrasound, Denver cell, Flotation, Heavy metals, AMD

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Authors: M. Anis-ur- Rehman, A. Abdullah, Mariam Ansari , Zeb-un-Nisa, M. S. Awan

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Samples of CoFe2-xCrxO4 where x varies from 0.0 to 0.5 were prepared by co-precipitation route. These samples were sintered at 750°C for 2 hours. These particles were characterized by X-ray diffraction (XRD) at room temperature. The FCC spinel structure was confirmed by XRD patterns of the samples. The crystallite sizes of these particles were calculated from the most intense peak by Scherrer formula. The crystallite sizes lie in the range of 37-60 nm. The lattice parameter was found decreasing upon substitution of Cr. DC electrical resistivity was measured as a function of temperature. The room temperature thermoelectric power was measured for the prepared samples. The magnitude of Seebeck coefficient depends on the composition and resistivity of the samples.

Keywords: Ferrites, crystallite size, drift mobility, seebeck coefficient, thermopower.

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Authors: Sherien H. Ahmed, Osama S. Helaly, Mohamed S. Abd El-Ghany

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Heavy rare earth (HRE) oxalate concentrates were prepared from the Egyptian crude monazite sand (graded about 47%). The concentrates were specified quantitatively for their constituents of individual rare earth elements using ion chromatograph (IC) and qualitatively by scanning electron microscope (SEM) for the other major constituents. The 1st concentrate was composed of 10.5% HREE where 7.25% of them represented yttrium. The 2nd concentrate contained about 41.7% LREE, 17.5% HREE and 13.6% Th. The LREE involved 18.3% Ce, 10.5% La and 8% Nd while the HREE were 8.7% Y, 3.5% Gd and 2.9% Dy. The 3rd concentrate was containing about 8.0% LREE (3.7% Ce, 2.0% La and 1.5% Nd), 10.2% HREE (6.4% yttrium and 2.0% Dy) and 2.1% uranium. The final concentrate comprised 0.84% uranium beside iron, chromium and traces of REE.

Keywords: Oxalic Acid Precipitation, Rare Earth Concentrates, Thorium, Uranium.

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Authors: Nikolaos Sariannidis, Grigoris Giannarakis, Nikolaos Litinas, Nikos Kartalis

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This study investigates the relationship between 10 year bond value, Yen/U.S dollar exchange rate, non-farm payrolls (all employs) and crude oil to U.S. Dow Jones Sustainability Index. A GARCH model is used to test these relationships for the period January 1st 1999 to January 31st 2008 using monthly data. Results show that an increase of the 10 year bond and non farm payrolls (all employs) lead to an increase of the D.J.S.I returns. On the contrary the volatility of the Yen/U.S dollar exchange rates as well as the increase of crude oil returns has negative effects on the U.S D.J.S.I returns. This study aims at assisting investors to understand the influences certain macroeconomic indicators have on the companies- stock returns as reported by the D.J.S.I.

Keywords: Bond value, Corporate Social Responsibility, Crudeoil, D.J.S.I United States, Exchange rate, GARCH, Non-farmpayrolls.

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Authors: Wisutmethangoon S., Pannaray S., Plookphol T., Wannasin J.

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2024 Aluminum alloy was squeezed cast by the Gas Induced Semi Solid (GISS) process. Effect of artificial aging on microstructure and mechanical properties of this alloy was studied in the present work. The solutionized specimens were aged hardened at temperatures of 175°C, 200°C, and 225°C under various time durations. The highest hardness of about 77.7 HRE was attained from specimen aged at the temperature of 175°C for 36h. Upon investigation the microstructure by using transmission electron microscopy (TEM), the S’ phase was mainly attributed to the strengthening effect in the aged alloy. The apparent activation energy for precipitation hardening of the alloy was calculated as 133,805 J/mol.

Keywords: 2024 aluminum alloy, Gas induced semi solid, T6 heat treatment, Aged hardening, Transmission electron microscopy.

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Authors: Sirichai Chantara-arpornchai, Apanee Luengnaruemitchai, Samai Jai-In

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In this study, the transesterification of palm oil with methanol for biodiesel production was studied by using CaO–ZnO as a heterogeneous base catalyst prepared by incipient-wetness impregnation (IWI) and co-precipitation (CP) methods. The reaction parameters considered were molar ratio of methanol to oil, amount of catalyst, reaction temperature, and reaction time. The optimum conditions–15:1 molar ratio of methanol to oil, a catalyst amount of 6 wt%, reaction temperature of 60 °C, and reaction time of 8 h–were observed. The effects of Ca loading, calcination temperature, and catalyst preparation on the catalytic performance were studied. The fresh and spent catalysts were characterized by several techniques, including XRD, TPR, and XRF.

Keywords: CaO, ZnO, biodiesel, heterogeneous catalyst, trans-esterification.

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Authors: Ying Xin, Shigeki Kametani

Abstract:

This paper deals the energy saving performance of GHP (Gas engine heat pump) air conditioning system has improved with time-series variation. There are two types of air conditioning systems, VRF (Variable refrigerant flow) and central cooling and heating system. VRF is classified as EHP (Electric driven heat pump) and GHP. EHP drives the compressor with electric motor. GHP drives the compressor with the gas engine. The electric consumption of GHP is less than one tenth of EHP does.

In this study, the energy consumption data of GHP installed the junior high schools was collected. An annual and monthly energy consumption per rated thermal output power of each apparatus was calculated, and then their energy efficiency was analyzed. From these data, we investigated improvement of the energy saving of the GHP air conditioning system by the change in the generation.

Keywords: Energy-saving, VRF, GHP, EHP, Air Conditioning System.

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Authors: Pek Chuen-Khee, Jamal Othman

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This paper estimates the economic values of household preference for enhanced solid waste disposal services in Malaysia. The contingent valuation (CV) method estimates an average additional monthly willingness-to-pay (WTP) in solid waste management charges of Ôé¼0.77 to 0.80 for improved waste disposal services quality. The finding of a slightly higher WTP from the generic CV question than that of label-specific, further reveals a higher WTP for sanitary landfill, at Ôé¼0.90, than incineration, at Ôé¼0.63. This suggests that sanitary landfill is a more preferred alternative. The logistic regression estimation procedure reveals that household-s concern of where their rubbish is disposed, age, ownership of house, household income and format of CV question are significant factors in influencing WTP.

Keywords: contingent valuation, logistic regression, solid waste disposal, willingness-to-pay.

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Authors: Liberty L Mguni, Reinout Meijboom, Kalala Jalama

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The effect of calcination temperature and MgO crystallite sizes on the structure and catalytic performance of TiO2 supported nano-MgO catalyst for the trans-esterification of soybean oil has been studied. The catalyst has been prepared by deposition precipitation method, characterised by XRD and FTIR and tested in an autoclave at 225oC. The soybean oil conversion after 15 minutes of the trans-esterification reaction increased when the calcination temperature was increased from 500 to 600oC and decreased with further increase in calcination temperature. Some glycerolysis activity was also detected on catalysts calcined at 600 and 700oC after 45 minutes of reaction. The trans-esterification reaction rate increased with the decrease in MgO crystallite size for the first 30 min.

Keywords: Calcination temperature, crystallite size, MgO/TiO2, transesterification

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Authors: Anocha Kimkong

Abstract:

The purpose of this research was to study the behavior trend factors of consumers to roasted coffee at the petrol station on the route of Rangsit to Nakhon Nayok. The research drew upon data collected from the regular consumers of roasted coffee stands. The majority of respondents was male, 33-39 years old, and holding a bachelor degree. The majority of respondents considered themselves private business proprietors or entrepreneurs and had a monthly income of between 10,000-16,000 baht. The regular coffee consumers spent a minimum coffee expense of between 45 and 300 baht per day. These consumers also displayed good attitude and good motivation which can be ranked as very high. From the hypothesis testing of the behavior trend for the roasted coffee consumers in repurchasing coffee and recommended the coffee to others, the findings revealed that it had a significant correlation. Moreover, the overall attitude towards the marketing mix factors also had a significant correlation with the behavior trend consumers.

Keywords: Factors Related, Consuming Behaviour, Coffee Consumers.

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Authors: O. Alizadeh Sahraei, A. Khodadadi, Y. Mortazavi, M. Vesali Naseh, S. Mosadegh

Abstract:

A composite made of plasma functionalized multiwall carbon nanotubes (MWNTs) coated with SnO2 was synthesized by sonochemical precipitation method. Thick layer of this nanocomposite material was used as ethanol sensor at low temperatures. The composite sensitivity for ethanol has increased by a factor of 2 at room temperature and by a factor of 13 at 250°C in comparison to that of pure SnO2. SEM image of nanocomposite material showed MWNTs were embedded in SnO2 matrix and also a higher surface area was observed in the presence of functionalized MWNTs. Greatly improved sensitivity of the composite material to ethanol can be attributed to new gas accessing passes through MWNTs and higher specific surface area.

Keywords: Carbon nanotube, Functionalized, Gas sensor, Low temperature, Nanocomposite, Tin oxide.

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Authors: S. Kazemzadeh Hannani, A. Azimi, S. Nikoofard

Abstract:

To simulate heating systems in buildings, a research oriented computer code has been developed in Sharif University of Technology in Iran where the climate, existing heating equipment in buildings, consumer behavior and their interactions are considered for simulating energy consumption in conventional systems such as heaters, radiators and fan-coils. In order to validate the computer code, the available data of five buildings was used and the computed consumed energy was compared with the estimated energy extracted from monthly bills. The initial heating system was replaced by the alternative system and the effect of this change was observed on the energy consumption. As a result, the effect of changing heating equipment on energy consumption was investigated in different climates. Changing heater to radiator renders energy conservation up to 50% in all climates and changing radiator to fan-coil decreases energy consumption in climates with cold and dry winter.

Keywords: Energy consumption, heating system, energy simulation.

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Authors: S. Kazemzadeh Hannani, A. Azimi, S. Nikoofard

Abstract:

To simulate heating systems in buildings, a research oriented computer code has been developed in Sharif University of Technology in Iran where the climate, existing heating equipment in buildings, consumer behavior and their interactions are considered for simulating energy consumption in conventional systems such as heaters, radiators and fan-coils. In order to validate the computer code, the available data of five buildings was used and the computed consumed energy was compared with the estimated energy extracted from monthly bills. The initial heating system was replaced by the alternative system and the effect of this change was observed on the energy consumption. As a result, the effect of changing heating equipment on energy consumption was investigated in different climates. Changing heater to radiator renders energy conservation up to 50% in all climates and changing radiator to fan-coil decreases energy consumption in climates with cold and dry winter.

Keywords: Energy consumption, heating system, energy simulation.

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Authors: Walid K. M. Bani Salameh, Hesham Ahmad, Mohammad Al-Shannag

Abstract:

In Jordan having deficit atmospheric precipitation, an increase in water demand occurs during summer months. Jordan can be regarded with a relatively high potential for wastewater recycling and reuse. The main purpose of this paper was to investigate the removal of total suspended solids (TSS) and chemical oxygen demand (COD) for olive mill wastewater (OMW) by electrocoagulation (EC) process. In the combination of electrocoagulation by using coupled iron–aluminum electrodes, the optimum working pH was found to be around 6. Results indicated that the electrocoagulation process allowed removal of TSS and COD of about 82.5% and 47.5%, respectively at 45 mA/cm2 after 70 minutes by using coupled iron–aluminum electrodes. It was demonstrated that the maximum TSS and COD removals were obtained at some optimum experimental parameters for current density, pH, and reaction time.

Keywords: Olive Mill Wastewater, Electrode, Electrocoagulation (EC), TSS, COD.

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Authors: Li Wu

Abstract:

Plant ecological stoichiometry, which is one of the most important tools to connect the components among different levels of ecosystem, has obtained increasingly extensive concern, especially on its responses to the environmental gradients. Based on the published literatures and datasets, this article focused on reviewing the variable responses of plant foliar ecological stoichiometry to the climatic factors, such as temperature, water, elevated CO₂, and found that foliar ecological stoichiometry responded dynamically to climatic variations among different regions and different growth forms. Then, research status and deficiency were summarized and the expectation on studying the relationships between plant C, N and P ecological stoichiometry and environmental variations which can provide a reference to understand how plants will respond to global change in the future was pointed out.

Keywords: Climatic variations, terrestrial plant, foliar ecological stoichiometry, temperature, precipitation, drought, elevated CO2.

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Authors: I. Lolic, P. Soric, M. Cizmesija

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Based on Business and Consumer Survey (BCS) data, the European Commission (EC) regularly publishes the monthly Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) for each EU member state. ESI is conceptualized as a leading indicator, aimed ad tracking the overall economic activity. In calculating ESI, the EC employs arbitrarily chosen weights on 15 BCS response balances. This paper raises the predictive quality of ESI by applying nonlinear programming to find such weights that maximize the correlation coefficient of ESI and year-on-year GDP growth. The obtained results show that the highest weights are assigned to the response balances of industrial sector questions, followed by questions from the retail trade sector. This comes as no surprise since the existing literature shows that the industrial production is a plausible proxy for the overall Croatian economic activity and since Croatian GDP is largely influenced by the aggregate personal consumption.

Keywords: Business and Consumer Survey, Economic Sentiment Indicator, Leading Indicator, Nonlinear Optimization with Constraints.

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Authors: Ahmed Kayad Abdourazak, Abderafi Souad, Zejli Driss, Idriss Abdoulkader Ibrahim

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In this paper Artificial Neural Network (ANN) is used to predict the solar irradiation in Djibouti for the first Time that is useful to the integration of Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) and sites selections for new or future solar plants as part of solar energy development. An ANN algorithm was developed to establish a forward/reverse correspondence between the latitude, longitude, altitude and monthly solar irradiation. For this purpose the German Aerospace Centre (DLR) data of eight Djibouti sites were used as training and testing in a standard three layers network with the back propagation algorithm of Lavenber-Marquardt. Results have shown a very good agreement for the solar irradiation prediction in Djibouti and proves that the proposed approach can be well used as an efficient tool for prediction of solar irradiation by providing so helpful information concerning sites selection, design and planning of solar plants.

Keywords: Artificial neural network, solar irradiation, concentrated solar power, Lavenberg-Marquardt.

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Authors: João Paulo Teixeira, Paula Odete Fernandes

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The authors have been developing several models based on artificial neural networks, linear regression models, Box- Jenkins methodology and ARIMA models to predict the time series of tourism. The time series consist in the “Monthly Number of Guest Nights in the Hotels" of one region. Several comparisons between the different type models have been experimented as well as the features used at the entrance of the models. The Artificial Neural Network (ANN) models have always had their performance at the top of the best models. Usually the feed-forward architecture was used due to their huge application and results. In this paper the author made a comparison between different architectures of the ANNs using simply the same input. Therefore, the traditional feed-forward architecture, the cascade forwards, a recurrent Elman architecture and a radial based architecture were discussed and compared based on the task of predicting the mentioned time series.

Keywords: Artificial Neural Network Architectures, time series forecast, tourism.

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