Search results for: medical decisions

Authors: Sharan Badiger, Prema T. Akkasaligar

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Medical imaging technology has experienced a dramatic change in the last few years. Medical imaging refers to the techniques and processes used to create images of the human body (or parts thereof) for various clinical purposes such as medical procedures and diagnosis or medical science including the study of normal anatomy and function. With the growth of computers and image technology, medical imaging has greatly influenced the medical field. The diagnosis of a health problem is now highly dependent on the quality and the credibility of the image analysis. This paper deals with the various aspects and types of medical imaging.

Keywords: Computed Tomography, Echocardiography, Medical Imaging, Magnetic Resonance, Ultrasound Imaging.

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Authors: Abdul Salim Amin

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This paper focuses on how judiciaries in post-conflict societies can gain legitimacy through reformation. Legitimacy plays a pivotal role in shaping people’s behavior to submit to the law and verifies the rightfulness of an organ for taking binding decisions. Among various dynamics, judicial independence, access to justice and behavioral changes of the judicial officials broadly contribute to legitimation of judiciary in general, and the courts in particular. Increasing independence of judiciary through reform limits, inter alia, government interference in judicial issues and protects basic rights of the citizens. Judicial independence does not only matter in institutional terms, individual independence also influences the impartiality and integrity of judges, which can be increased through education and better administration of justice. Finally, access to justice as an intertwined concept both at the legal and moral spectrum of judicial reform avails justice to the citizens and increases the level of public trust and confidence. Efficient legal decisions on fostering such elements through holistic reform create a rule of law atmosphere. Citizens neither accept an illegitimate judiciary nor do they trust its decisions. Lack of such tolerance and confidence deters the rule of law and thus, undermines the democratic development of a society.

Keywords: Legitimacy, judicial reform, judicial independence, access to justice, legal training, informal justice, rule of law.

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Authors: Bita Mashayekhi, Hamid Kalhornia

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One of the most important roles of financial reporting is improving the firms’ investment decisions; however, there is not much supporting evidence for this claim in emerging markets like Iran. In this study, the effect of financial reporting transparency in investment efficiency of Iranian firms has been investigated. In order to do this, 336 listed companies on Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE) has been selected for time period 2012 to 2015 as research sample. For testing our main hypothesis, we classified sample firms into two groups based on their deviation from expected investment: under-investment and over-investment cases. The results indicate that there is positive significant relationship between financial transparency and investment efficiency. In the other words, transparency can mitigate both underinvestment and overinvestment situations.

Keywords: Corporate governance, disclosure, investment decisions, investment efficiency, transparency.

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Authors: O. Abiodun Adeyinka, B. Adeyemo Adesesan

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The forensic use of handwriting depends on the analysis, comparison, and evaluation decisions made by forensic document examiners. When using biometric technology in forensic applications, it is necessary to compute Likelihood Ratio (LR) for quantifying strength of evidence under two competing hypotheses, namely the prosecution and the defense hypotheses wherein a set of assumptions and methods for a given data set will be made. It is therefore important to know how repeatable and reproducible our estimated LR is. This paper evaluated the accuracy and reproducibility of examiners' decisions. Confidence interval for the estimated LR were presented so as not get an incorrect estimate that will be used to deliver wrong judgment in the court of Law. The estimate of LR is fundamentally a Bayesian concept and we used two LR estimators, namely Logistic Regression (LoR) and Kernel Density Estimator (KDE) for this paper. The repeatability evaluation was carried out by retesting the initial experiment after an interval of six months to observe whether examiners would repeat their decisions for the estimated LR. The experimental results, which are based on handwriting dataset, show that LR has different confidence intervals which therefore implies that LR cannot be estimated with the same certainty everywhere. Though the LoR performed better than the KDE when tested using the same dataset, the two LR estimators investigated showed a consistent region in which LR value can be estimated confidently. These two findings advance our understanding of LR when used in computing the strength of evidence in handwriting using forensics.

Keywords: Logistic Regression LoR, Kernel Density Estimator KDE, Handwriting, Confidence Interval, Repeatability, Reproducibility.

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Authors: Dimitrios J. Dimitriou

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The decades after the end of the second War provide evidence that infrastructures investments contibute to economic development, on terms of productivity and income growth. In order to force productivity and increase competitiveness the financing of large transport infrastructure projects are on the top of the agenda in strategic planning process. Such a decision may take form some days to some decades and stakeholders as well as decision makers need tools in order to estimate the economic impact on natioanl economy of such an investment. The key question in such decisions is if the effects caused by the new infrastructure could be able to boost economic development on one hand, and create new jobs and activities on the other. This paper deals with the review of estimation of the mega transport infrastructure projects economic effects in economy.

Keywords: Economic impact, transport infrastructure, strategic planning.

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Authors: Chanisada Choosuk, Napisporn Memongkol Runchana Sinthavalai, Fareeda Lambensah

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The objective of this research is to explore the role of actors at the local level in managing the Pre-hospital Emergency Medical Service (EMS) system in Thailand. The research method was done through documentary research, individual interviews, and one forum conducted in each province. This paper uses the case of three provinces located in three regions in Thailand including; Ubon Ratchathani (North-eastern region), Lampang (Northern Region), and Songkhla (Southern Region). The result shows that, recently, the role of the local government in being the service provider for their local people is increasingly concerned. In identifying the key success factors towards the EMS system, it includes; (i) the local executives- vision and influence that the decisions made by them, for both PAO (Provincial Administration Organisation (PAO) and TAO (Tambon Administration Organisation), is vital to address the overall challenges in EMS development, (ii) the administrative system through reforming their working style create the flexibility in running the EMS task, (iii) the network-based management among different agencies at the local level leads to the better EMS practices, and (iv) the development in human resource is very vital in delivering the effective services.

Keywords: Local governments, Management, Emergency Medical Services (EMS), Thailand

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Authors: Peter Boyes, Sarah Sharples, Paul Tennent, Gary Priestnall, Jeremy Morley

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Significant long-term investment projects can involve complex decisions. These are often described as capital projects and the factors that contribute to their complexity include budgets, motivating reasons for investment, stakeholder involvement, interdependent projects, and the delivery phases required. The complexity of these projects often requires management groups to be established involving stakeholder representatives, these teams are inherently multidisciplinary. This study uses two university campus capital projects as case studies for this type of management group. Due to the interaction of projects with wider campus infrastructure and users, decisions are made at varying spatial granularity throughout the project lifespan. This spatial-related context brings complexity to the group decisions. Sensemaking is the process used to achieve group situational awareness of a complex situation, enabling the team to arrive at a consensus and make a decision. The purpose of this study is to understand the role of people and data in complex spatial related long-term decision and sensemaking processes. The paper aims to identify and present issues experienced in practical settings of these types of decision. A series of exploratory semi-structured interviews with members of the two projects elicit an understanding of their operation. From two stages of thematic analysis, inductive and deductive, emergent themes are identified around the group structure, the data usage, and the decision making within these groups. When data were made available to the group, there were commonly issues with perception of veracity and validity of the data presented; this impacted the ability of the group to reach consensus and therefore for decision to be made. Similarly, there were different responses to forecasted or modelled data, shaped by the experience and occupation of the individuals within the multidisciplinary management group. This paper provides an understanding of further support required for team sensemaking and decision making in complex capital projects. The paper also discusses the barriers found to effective decision making in this setting and suggests opportunities to develop decision support systems in this team strategic decision-making process. Recommendations are made for further research into the sensemaking and decision-making process of this complex spatial-related setting.

Keywords: decision making, decisions under uncertainty, real decisions, sensemaking, spatial, team decision making

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Authors: Jeffrey L. Duffany

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The equivalence class subset algorithm is a powerful tool for solving a wide variety of constraint satisfaction problems and is based on the use of a decision function which has a very high but not perfect accuracy. Perfect accuracy is not required in the decision function as even a suboptimal solution contains valuable information that can be used to help find an optimal solution. In the hardest problems, the decision function can break down leading to a suboptimal solution where there are more equivalence classes than are necessary and which can be viewed as a mixture of good decision and bad decisions. By choosing a subset of the decisions made in reaching a suboptimal solution an iterative technique can lead to an optimal solution, using series of steadily improved suboptimal solutions. The goal is to reach an optimal solution as quickly as possible. Various techniques for choosing the decision subset are evaluated.

Keywords: np-complete, complexity, algorithm.

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Authors: J. A. López, J. E. Olguín, C. W. Camargo, G. A. Quijano, R. Martínez

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This paper presents an anthropometric study conducted to 300 employees in a maquiladora industry that belongs to the cluster of medical products as part of a research project to pretend simulate workplace conditions under which operators conduct their activities. This project is relevant because traditionally performed a study to design ergonomic workspaces according to anthropometric profile of users, however, this paper demonstrates the importance of making decisions when the infrastructure cannot be adapted for economic whichever put emphasis on user activity.

Keywords: Anthropometry, Biomechanics, Design, Ergonomics, Productivity.

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Authors: Nabilah Filzah Mohd Radzuan, Andi Putra, Zalinda Othman, Azuraliza Abu Bakar, Abdul Razak Hamdan

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Precipitation forecast is important in avoid incident of natural disaster which can cause loss in involved area. This review paper involves three techniques from artificial intelligence namely logistic regression, decisions tree, and random forest which used in making precipitation forecast. These combination techniques through VAR model in finding advantages and strength for every technique in forecast process. Data contains variables from rain domain. Adaptation of artificial intelligence techniques involved on rain domain enables the process to be easier and systematic for precipitation forecast.

Keywords: Logistic regression, decisions tree, random forest, VAR model.

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Authors: Mercan Efe Güney, Barış Parlatangiller, Melik Ayer

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In Turkey, while urban area boundaries are enlarged by making decisions on investment areas in cities, development plans are made according to government decisions, rather than scientific criteria. Even environment protection laws state that “if public interest is at stake”, areas under mandatory protection can be transformed into investment areas. This leads to destruction of valuable agricultural lands. Paper demonstrates loss of agricultural lands by superimposing plans, Suitability of the Lands for Agricultural Use and Google Earth Images in an exemplary settlement, and expresses that urban area boundaries should be included in legislation as an official boundary for all settlements.

Keywords: Agriculture, boundary, city planning, development plan, legislation.

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Authors: C. Ardil

Abstract:

This paper considers a comparative analysis of multiple criteria decision making analysis methods for strategic, tactical, and operational decisions in military fighter aircraft selection for the air force fleet planning. The evaluation criteria governing the decision analysis process are determined from the literature for the three existing military combat aircraft. Military fighter aircraft selection problem is structured using "preference analysis for reference ideal solution (PARIS)” approach in multiple criteria decision analysis (MCDMA). Systematic comparisons were made with existing MCDMA methods (PARIS, and TOPSIS) to verify the stability and accuracy of the results obtained. The proposed integrated MCDMA systematic approach is expected to address the issues encountered in the aircraft selection process. The comparative analysis results show that the proposed method is an effective and accurate tool that can help analysts make better strategic, tactical, and operational decisions.

Keywords: aircraft, military fighter aircraft selection, multiple criteria decision making, multiple criteria decision making analysis, mean weight, entropy weight, MCDMA, PARIS, TOPSIS, Saab Gripen, Dassault Rafale, Eurofighter Typhoon

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Authors: Yogesh C. Sharma, A. Seetharaman

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The decision-making process in humans is a complicated system influenced by a variety of intrinsic and extrinsic factors. Human decisions have a ripple effect on subsequent decisions. In this study, the scope of human decision making is limited to employees. In an organisation, a person makes a variety of decisions from the time they are hired to the time they retire. The goal of this research is to identify various elements that influence decision making. In addition, the environment in which a decision is made is a significant aspect of the decision-making process. Employees in today's workplace use artificial intelligence (AI) systems for automation and decision augmentation. The impact of AI systems on the decision-making process is examined in this study. This research is designed based on a systematic literature review. Based on gaps in the literature, limitations and the scope of future research have been identified. Based on these findings, a research framework has been designed to identify various factors affecting employee decision making. Employee decision making is influenced by technological advancement, data-driven culture, human trust, decision automation-augmentation and workplace motivation. Hybrid human-AI systems require development of new skill sets and organisational design. Employee psychological safety and supportive leadership influences overall job satisfaction.

Keywords: Employee decision making, artificial intelligence, environment, human trust, technology innovation, psychological safety.

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Authors: P. Sankar, P. James Daniel Paul, Siddhant Sahu

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A brief review of the empirical studies on the methodology of the stock market decision support would indicate that they are at a threshold of validating the accuracy of the traditional and the fuzzy, artificial neural network and the decision trees. Many researchers have been attempting to compare these models using various data sets worldwide. However, the research community is on the way to the conclusive confidence in the emerged models. This paper attempts to use the automotive sector stock prices from National Stock Exchange (NSE), India and analyze them for the intra-sectorial support for stock market decisions. The study identifies the significant variables and their lags which affect the price of the stocks using OLS analysis and decision tree classifiers.

Keywords: Indian Automotive Sector, Stock Market Decisions, Equity Portfolio Analysis, Decision Tree Classifiers, Statistical Data Analysis.

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Authors: Barbora Chmelíková

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Making sound financial decisions is an essential skill which can have an impact on life of each consumer of financial products. The aim of this paper is to examine decision-making concerning financial matters and personal finance. The selected target group was university students majoring in finance related fields. The study was conducted in the Czech Republic at Masaryk University in 2015. In order to analyze financial decision-making questions related to basic finance decisions were developed to address the research objective. The results of the study suggest gaps in detecting best solutions to given financial decision-making questions among finance students. The analysis results indicate relation between financial decision-making and own experience with holding and using concrete financial products.

Keywords: Financial decision-making, financial literacy, personal finance, university students.

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Authors: Katarzyna Strzała-Osuch

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Environmental investments, including ecological projects, relating to the protection of atmosphere are today a need. However, investing in the environment should be based on rational management rules. This comes across a problem of selecting a method to assess substances reduced during projects. Therefore, a method allowing for the assessment of decision rationality has to be found. The purpose of this article is to present and systematise pollution reduction assessment methods and illustrate theoretical analyses with empirical data. Empirical results confirm theoretical considerations, which proved that the only method for judging pollution reduction, free of apparent disadvantages, is the Eco 99-ratio method. To make decisions on environmental projects, financing institutions should take into account a rationality rule. Therefore the Eco 99-ratio method could be applied to make decisions relating to environmental investments in the area of air protection.

Keywords: Assessment of pollution reduction, costs of environmental protection, efficiency of environmental investments.

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Authors: Noraziah Ahmad, Roslina Mohd Sidek, Mohd Affendy Omardin

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E-Appointment Scheduling (EAS) has been developed to handle appointment for UMP students, lecturers in Faculty of Computer Systems & Software Engineering (FCSSE) and Student Medical Center. The schedules are based on the timetable and university activities. Constraints Logic Programming (CLP) has been implemented to solve the scheduling problems by giving recommendation to the users in part of determining any available slots from the lecturers and doctors- timetable. By using this system, we can avoid wasting time and cost because this application will set an appointment by auto-generated. In addition, this system can be an alternative to the lecturers and doctors to make decisions whether to approve or reject the appointments.

Keywords: EAS, Constraint Logic Programming, PHP, Apache.

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Authors: Sheila Marie G. Hocson

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One of the vital developmental tasks that an individual faces during adolescence is choosing a career. Arriving at a career decision is difficult and anxious for many adolescents in the tertiary level. The main purpose of this study is to determine the factors relating to career indecision among freshmen college students as basis for the formulation of a comprehensive career counseling program for the psychological well-being of freshmen university students. The subjects were purposively selected. The Slovin-s formula was used in determining the sample size, using a 0.05 margin of error in getting the total number of samples per college and per major. The researcher made use of descriptive correlational study in determining significant factors relating to career indecision. Multiple Regression Analysis indicated that career thoughts, career decisions and vocational identity as factors related to career indecision.

Keywords: career decisions, career guidance program, career thoughts, vocational identity

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Authors: S. Minhas, C. Juzek, U. Berger

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The planning in manufacturing system is becoming complicated day by day due to the expanding networks and shortage of skilled people to manage change. Consequently, faster lead time and rising demands for eco-efficient evaluation of manufacturing products and processes need exploitation of new and intelligent knowledge management concepts for manufacturing planning. This paper highlights motivation for incorporation of new features in the manufacturing planning system. Furthermore, it elaborates requirements for the development of intelligent knowledge management concept to support planning related decisions. Afterwards, the derived concept is presented in this paper considering two case studies. The first case study is concerned with the automotive ramp-up planning. The second case study specifies requirements for knowledge management system to support decisions in eco-efficient evaluation of manufacturing products and processes

Keywords: Ramp-up, Environmental impact, Knowledge management.

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Authors: G. Feletti, D. Tedesco, P. Trucco

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The present study aims to develop a dashboard of Key Performance Indicators (KPI) to enhance information and predictive capabilities in Emergency Medical Services (EMS) systems, supporting both operational and strategic decisions of different actors. The employed research methodology consists of a first phase of revision of the technical-scientific literature concerning the indicators currently in use for the performance measurement of EMS. It emerges that current studies focus on two distinct areas and independent objectives: the ambulance service, a fundamental component of pre-hospital health treatment, and the patient care in the Emergency Department (ED). Conversely, the perspective proposed by this study is to consider an integrated view of the ambulance service process and the ED process, both essential to ensure high quality of care and patient safety. Thus, the proposal covers the end-to-end healthcare service process and, as such, allows considering the interconnection between the two EMS processes, the pre-hospital and hospital ones, connected by the assignment of the patient to a specific ED. In this way, it is possible to optimize the entire patient management. Therefore, attention is paid even to EMS aspects that in current literature tend to be neglected or underestimated. In particular, the integration of the two processes enables to evaluate the advantage of an ED selection decision having visibility on EDs’ saturation status and therefore considering, besides the distance, the available resources and the expected waiting times. Starting from a critical review of the KPIs proposed in extant literature, the design of the dashboard was carried out: the high number of analyzed KPIs was reduced by eliminating firstly the ones not in line with the aim of the study and then the ones supporting a similar functionality. The KPIs finally selected were tested on a realistic dataset, which draw us to exclude additional indicators due to unavailability of data required for their computation. The final dashboard, that was discussed and validated by experts in the field, includes a variety of KPIs able to support operational and planning decisions, early warning, and citizens’ awareness on EDs accessibility in real time. The association of each KPI to the EMS phase it refers to enabled the design of a well-balanced dashboard, covering both efficiency and effectiveness performance objectives of the entire EMS process. Indeed, just the initial phases related to the interconnection between ambulance service and patient care are covered by traditional KPIs. Future developments could be directed to building a hierarchical dashboard, composed by a high-level minimal set of KPIs for measuring the basic performance of the EMS system, at an aggregate level, and lower levels of KPIs that bring additional and more detailed information on specific performance dimensions or EMS phases.

Keywords: Emergency Medical Services, Key Performance Indicators, Dashboard, Decision Support.

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Authors: Pei-Ti Chen, Ren-Hua Kung, Ming –Yi Huang , Fuu-Diing Chen, Lei Pei

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Medical Tourism is a new development in Taiwan recently. The willingness and barriers of potential tourists from China to participate medical tourism are studied. A questionnaire survey is conducted and the SPSS software is used to analyze data. The results show that under one fifth of respondents express full medical tourism participation willingness. Among travel barriers toward medical tourism, “insufficient information of medical tourism trip", “not enough time", “no companion", “worrying about unsatisfied itinerary." are perceived the most important barriers.

Keywords: medical tourism, travel barriers, participation willingness

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Authors: S. Sabbour, H. Lasi, P. von Tessin

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The purpose of this study is two-fold. First, it attempts to explore potential opportunities for utilizing visual interactive simulations along with Business Intelligence (BI) as a decision support tool for strategic decision making. Second, it tries to figure out the essential top-level managerial requirements that would transform strategic decision simulation into an integral component of BI systems. The domain of particular interest was the application of visual interactive simulation capabilities in the field of supply chains. A qualitative exploratory method was applied, through the use of interviews with two leading companies. The collected data was then analysed to demonstrate the difference between the literature perspective and the practical managerial perspective on the issue. The results of the study suggest that although the use of simulation particularly in managing supply chains is very evident in literature, yet, in practice such utilization is still in its infancy, particularly regarding strategic decisions. Based on the insights a prototype of a simulation based BI-solution-extension was developed and evaluated.

Keywords: Business Intelligence, decision support, strategic decisions, simulation, SCM.

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Authors: Michael T. Miller, G. David Gearhart

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Shared governance is an important element in higher education decision making. Through the joint decision making process, faculty members are provided an opportunity to help shape the future of an institution while increasing support for decisions that are made. Presidents, those leaders who are legally bound to guide their institutions, must find ways to collaborate effectively with faculty members in making decisions, and the first step in this process is understanding when and how presidents and faculty leaders interact. In the current study, a national sample of college presidents reported their preparation for the presidency, their perceptions of the functions of a faculty senate, and ultimately, the locations for important interactions between presidents and faculty senates. Results indicated that presidents, regardless of their preparation, found official functions to be the most important for communicating, although, those presidents with academic backgrounds were more likely to perceive faculty senates as having a role in all aspects of an institutions management.

Keywords: College faculty, college president, faculty senate, leadership.

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Authors: S. Madhavi, K. Baala Srinivas, G. Bharath, R. K. Indhuja, M. Kowser Chandini

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Game theory is the study of how people interact and make decisions to handle competitive situations. It has mainly been developed to study decision making in complex situations. Humans routinely alter their behaviour in response to changes in their social and physical environment. As a consequence, the outcomes of decisions that depend on the behaviour of multiple decision makers are difficult to predict and require highly adaptive decision-making strategies. In addition to the decision makers may have preferences regarding consequences to other individuals and choose their actions to improve or reduce the well-being of others. Nash equilibrium is a fundamental concept in the theory of games and the most widely used method of predicting the outcome of a strategic interaction in the social sciences. A Nash Equilibrium exists when there is no unilateral profitable deviation from any of the players involved. On the other hand, no player in the game would take a different action as long as every other player remains the same.

Keywords: Game Theory, Nash Equilibrium, Rules of Dominance.

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Authors: Afrooz Moatari Kazerouni

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In a competitive production environment, critical decision making are based on data resulted by random sampling of product units. Efficiency of these decisions depends on data quality and also their reliability scale. This point leads to the necessity of a reliable measurement system. Therefore, the conjecture process and analysing the errors contributes to a measurement system known as Measurement System Analysis (MSA). The aim of this research is on determining the necessity and assurance of extensive development in analysing measurement systems, particularly with the use of Repeatability and Reproducibility Gages (GR&R) to improve physical measurements. Nowadays in productive industries, repeatability and reproducibility gages released so well but they are not applicable as well as other measurement system analysis methods. To get familiar with this method and gain a feedback in improving measurement systems, this survey would be on “ANOVA" method as the most widespread way of calculating Repeatability and Reproducibility (R&R).

Keywords: Analysis of Variance (ANOVA), MeasurementSystem Analysis (MSA), Part-Operator interaction effect, Repeatability and Reproducibility.

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Authors: Hsing-Yi Kao, Der-Ming Liou

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Transferring patient information between medical care sites is necessary to deliver better patient care and to reduce medical cost. So developing of electronic medical records is an important trend for the world.The Continuity of Care Document (CCD) is product of collaboration between CDA and CCR standards. In this study, we will develop a system to generate medical records with entry level based on CCD template module.

Keywords: Continuity Care Document, medical record, entrylevel

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Authors: Julio Molleda, Daniel F. García, Juan C. Granda, Francisco J. Suárez

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One of the main trouble in a steel strip manufacturing line is the breakage of whatever weld carried out between steel coils, that are used to produce the continuous strip to be processed. A weld breakage results in a several hours stop of the manufacturing line. In this process the damages caused by the breakage must be repaired. After the reparation and in order to go on with the production it will be necessary a restarting process of the line. For minimizing this problem, a human operator must inspect visually and manually each weld in order to avoid its breakage during the manufacturing process. The work presented in this paper is based on the Bayesian decision theory and it presents an approach to detect, on real-time, steel strip defective welds. This approach is based on quantifying the tradeoffs between various classification decisions using probability and the costs that accompany such decisions.

Keywords: Classification, Pattern Recognition, ProbabilisticReasoning, Statistical Data Analysis.

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Authors: Joseph Ignagni, Rebecca E. Deen

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There are many views on how human decision makers behave. In this work, the Justices of the United States Supreme Court will be viewed in terms of constrained maximization and cognitivecybernetic theory. This paper will integrate research in such fields as law, political science, psychology, economics and decision making theory. It will be argued that due to its heavy workload, the Supreme Court is forced to make decisions in a boundedly rational manner. The ideas and theory put forward here will be tested in the area of the Court’s decisions involving religion. Therefore, the cases involving the U.S. Constitution’s Free Exercise Clause and Establishment Clause will be analyzed. Also, variables such as the U.S. government’s involvement in these cases will be considered. The years to be studied will be 1987-2011.

Keywords: Establishment Clause, Free Exercise Clause, U.S. Constitution, U.S. Supreme Court.

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Authors: Marcel Schneider, Nils Nießen

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Microscopic simulation tool kits allow for consideration of the two processes of railway operations and the previous timetable production. Block occupation conflicts on both process levels are often solved by using defined train priorities. These conflict resolutions (dispatching decisions) generate reactionary delays to the involved trains. The sum of reactionary delays is commonly used to evaluate the quality of railway operations, which describes the timetable robustness. It is either compared to an acceptable train performance or the delays are appraised economically by linear monetary functions. It is impossible to adequately evaluate dispatching decisions without a well-founded objective function. This paper presents a new approach for the evaluation of dispatching decisions. The approach uses mode choice models and considers the behaviour of the end-customers. These models evaluate the reactionary delays in more detail and consider other competing modes of transport. The new approach pursues the coupling of a microscopic model of railway operations with the macroscopic choice mode model. At first, it will be implemented for railway operations process but it can also be used for timetable production. The evaluation considers the possibility for the customer to interchange to other transport modes. The new approach starts to look at rail and road, but it can also be extended to air travel. The result of mode choice models is the modal split. The reactions by the end-customers have an impact on the revenue of the train operating companies. Different purposes of travel have different payment reserves and tolerances towards late running. Aside from changes to revenues, longer journey times can also generate additional costs. The costs are either time- or track-specific and arise from required changes to rolling stock or train crew cycles. Only the variable values are summarised in the contribution margin, which is the base for the monetary evaluation of delays. The contribution margin is calculated for different possible solutions to the same conflict. The conflict resolution is optimised until the monetary loss becomes minimal. The iterative process therefore determines an optimum conflict resolution by monitoring the change to the contribution margin. Furthermore, a monetary value of each dispatching decision can also be derived.

Keywords: Choice of mode, monetary evaluation, railway operations, reactionary delays.

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Authors: Qiang Yang, Ping-An Du

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Group decision making with multiple attribute has attracted intensive concern in the decision analysis area. This paper assumes that the contributions of all the decision makers (DMs) are not equal to the decision process based on different knowledge and experience in group setting. The aim of this paper is to develop a novel approach to determine weights of DMs in the group decision making problems. In this paper, the weights of DMs are determined in the group decision environment via angle cosine and projection method. First of all, the average decision of all individual decisions is defined as the ideal decision. After that, we define the weight of each decision maker (DM) by aggregating the angle cosine and projection between individual decision and ideal decision with associated direction indicator μ. By using the weights of DMs, all individual decisions are aggregated into a collective decision. Further, the preference order of alternatives is ranked in accordance with the overall row value of collective decision. Finally, an example in a chemical company is provided to illustrate the developed approach.

Keywords: Angel cosine, ideal decision, projection method, weights of decision makers.

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