Search results for: market return

Authors: Ahmed Kiani

Abstract:

The United Arab Emirates is clearly facing a multitude of challenges in curbing its greenhouse gas emissions to meet its pre-allotted framework of Kyoto protocol and COP21 targets due to its hunger for modernization, industrialization, infrastructure growth, soaring population and oil and gas activity. In this work, we focus on the bonafide zero emission electric vehicles market penetration in the country’s transport industry for emission reduction. We study the global electric vehicle market trends, the complementary battery technologies and the trends by manufacturers, emission standards across borders and prioritized advancements which will ultimately dictate the terms of future conditions for the United Arab Emirate transport industry. Based on our findings and analysis at every stage of current viability and state-of-transport-affairs, we postulate policy recommendations to local governmental entities from a supply and demand perspective covering aspects of technology, infrastructure requirements, change in power dynamics, end user incentives program, market regulators behavior and communications amongst key stakeholders. 

Keywords: Electric vehicles, greenhouse gas emission reductions, market analysis, policy recommendations.

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Authors: Esam Jassim

Abstract:

Supersonic nozzles are commonly used to purify natural gas in gas processing technology. As an innovated technology, it is employed to overcome the deficit of the traditional method, related to gas dynamics, thermodynamics and fluid dynamics theory. An indoor test rig is built to study the dehumidification process of moisture fluid. Humid air was chosen for the study. The working fluid was circulating in an open loop, which had provision for filtering, metering, and humidifying. A stainless steel supersonic separator is constructed together with the C-D nozzle system. The result shows that dehumidification enhances as NPR increases. This is due to the high intensity in the turbulence caused by the shock formation in the divergent section. Such disturbance strengthens the centrifugal force, pushing more particles toward the near-wall region. In return return, the pressure recovery factor, defined as the ratio of the outlet static pressure of the fluid to its inlet value, decreases with NPR.

Keywords: Supersonic nozzle, dehumidification, particle separation, geometry.

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Authors: Cheryl Marie Cordeiro

Abstract:

Although fisheries and aquaculture studies might seem marginal to international business (IB) studies in general, fisheries and aquaculture IB (FAIB) management is currently facing increasing pressure to meet global demand and consumption for fish in the next coming decades. In part address to this challenge, the purpose of this systematic review of literature (SLR) study is to investigate the use of the term ‘market access’ in its context of use in the generic literature and business sector discourse, in comparison to the more specific literature and discourse in fisheries, aquaculture and seafood. This SLR aims to uncover the knowledge/interest gaps between the academic subject discourses and business sector practices. Corpus driven in methodology and using a triangulation method of three different text analysis software including AntConc, VOSviewer and Web of Science (WoS) analytics, the SLR results indicate a gap in conceptual knowledge and business practices in how ‘market access’ is conceived and used in the context of the pharmaceutical healthcare industry and FAIB research and practice. While it is acknowledged that the product orientation of different business sectors might differ, this SLR study works with the assumption that both business sectors are global in orientation. These business sectors are complex in their operations from product to market. This SLR suggests a conceptual model in understanding the challenges, the potential barriers as well as avenues for solutions to developing market access for FAIB.

Keywords: Market access, fisheries and aquaculture, international business, systematic literature review.

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Authors: F. Lhafiane, A. Elbyed, M. Bouchoum

Abstract:

The design of Reverse logistics Network has attracted growing attention with the stringent pressures from both environmental awareness and business sustainability. Reverse logistical activities include return, remanufacture, disassemble and dispose of products can be quite complex to manage. In addition, demand can be difficult to predict, and decision making is one of the challenges task in such network. This complexity has amplified the need to develop an integrated architecture for product return as an enterprise system. The main purpose of this paper is to design Multi Agent System (MAS) architecture using the Prometheus methodology to efficiently manage reverse logistics processes. The proposed MAS architecture includes five types of agents: Gate keeping Agent, Collection Agent, Sorting Agent, Processing Agent and Disposal Agent which act respectively during the five steps of reverse logistics Network.

Keywords: Reverse logistics, multi agent system, Prometheus methodology.

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Authors: Rashid A. Fayadh, F. Malek, Hilal A. Fadhil, Norshafinash Saudin

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In this paper, a design of ultra wideband (UWB) printed microstrip antennas that fed by microstrip transmission line were presented and printed on a substrate Taconic TLY-5 material with relative dielectric constant of 2.2. The proposed antennas were designed to cover the frequency range of 3.5 to 12 GHz. The antennas of printed patch shapes are rectangular, triangle/rectangular, hexagonal, and circular with the same dimensions of feeder and ground plane. The proposed antennas were simulated using a package of CST microwave studio in the 2 to 12 GHz operating frequency range. Simulation results and comparison for return loss (S₁₁), radiation patterns, and voltage standing wave ratio (VSWR) were presented and discussed over the UWB frequency.

Keywords: Microstrip patch antenna, ultra-wideband frequency, wireless communication systems, return loss and radiation patterns.

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Authors: Vanessa de Cillos Silva, Fabrício José Piacente, Sônia Maria De Stefano Piedade, Valter Arthur

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The increasing concern in relation to safety and hygiene of food consumption makes it so that food conservation is studied. Food radiation is a technique used for conservation, but many consumers associate this technique with dangers such as environmental contamination and development of diseases. This research had the objective of evaluating the acceptance of radiated products by the consumer market in the city of Piracicaba/SP-Brasil. The methodology adopted was the application of a questionnaire in the city’s supermarkets. After the application, the data was tabulated and analyzed. It was observed that the majority of interviewees would not eat irradiated food. The unfamiliarity and questions about the safety of irradiated food were the main causes of your rejection.

Keywords: Irradiation, market acceptance, questionnaire, storage.

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Authors: Vilma Deltuvaitė

Abstract:

Comparisons of financial development across countries are central to answering many of the questions on factors leading to economic development. For this reason this study analyzes the implications of financial system’s development on country’s economic development. The aim of the article: to analyze the impact of financial system’s development on economic development. The following research methods were used: systemic, logical and comparative analysis of scientific literature, analysis of statistical data, time series model (Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Model). The empirical results suggest about positive short and long term effect of stock market development on GDP per capita.

Keywords: Banking sector, economic development, financial system’s development, stock market, private bond market.

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Authors: Pulak Swain, A. K. Ojha

Abstract:

Portfolio optimization is based on dealing with the problems of efficient asset allocation. Risk and Expected return are two conflicting criteria in such problems, where the investor prefers the return to be high and the risk to be low. Using multi-objective approach we can solve those type of problems. However the information which we have for the input parameters are generally ambiguous and the input values can fluctuate around some nominal values. We can not ignore the uncertainty in input values, as they can affect the asset allocation drastically. So we use Robust Optimization approach to the problems where the input parameters comes under box uncertainty. In this paper, we solve the multi criteria robust problem with the help of  E- constraint method.

Keywords: Portfolio optimization, multi-objective optimization, E-constraint method, box uncertainty, robust optimization.

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Authors: G.B. Nurlikhina, G.N. Azhimetova, R. M. Ashimova

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Currently, one of the main directions is developing of development based on the clustering of economic operations of Kazakhstan, providing for the organization and concentration of production capacity in one region or the most optimal system. In the modern economic literature clustering is regarded as one of the most effective tools to ensure competitive businesses, and improve their business itself.

Keywords: A cluster, food market, innovation cluster.

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Authors: Bita Mashayekhi, Seyed Meisam Tabatabaie Nasab

Abstract:

Intellectual capital is one of the most valuable and important parts of the intangible assets of enterprises especially in knowledge-based enterprises. With respect to increasing gap between the market value and the book value of the companies, intellectual capital is one of the components that can be placed in this gap. This paper uses the value added efficiency of the three components, capital employed, human capital and structural capital, to measure the intellectual capital efficiency of Iranian industries groups, listed in the Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE), using a 8 years period data set from 2005 to 2012. In order to analyze the effect of intellectual capital on the market-to-book value ratio of the companies, the data set was divided into 10 industries, Banking, Pharmaceutical, Metals & Mineral Nonmetallic, Food, Computer, Building, Investments, Chemical, Cement and Automotive, and the panel data method was applied to estimating pooled OLS. The results exhibited that value added of capital employed has a positive significant relation with increasing market value in the industries, Banking, Metals & Mineral Nonmetallic, Food, Computer, Chemical and Cement, and also, showed that value added efficiency of structural capital has a positive significant relation with increasing market value in the Banking, Pharmaceutical and Computer industries groups. The results of the value added showed a negative relation with the Banking and Pharmaceutical industries groups and a positive relation with computer and Automotive industries groups. Among the studied industries, computer industry has placed the widest gap between the market value and book value in its intellectual capital.

Keywords: Capital Employed, Human Capital, Intellectual Capital, Market-to-Book Value, Structural Capital, Value Added Efficiency.

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Authors: Moustafa Ahmed, Ahmed Bakry, Safwat W. Z. Mahmoud

Abstract:

We model and simulate the combined effect of fiber dispersion and frequency chirp of a directly modulated high-speed laser diode on the figures of merit of a non-amplified 40-Gbps optical fiber link. We consider both the return to zero (RZ) and non-return to zero (NRZ) patterns of the pseudorandom modulation bits. The performance of the fiber communication system is assessed by the fiber-length limitation due to the fiber dispersion. We study the influence of replacing standard single-mode fibers by non-zero dispersion-shifted fibers on the maximum fiber length and evaluate the associated power penalty. We introduce new dispersion tolerances for 1-dB power penalty of the RZ and NRZ 40-Gbps optical fiber links.

Keywords: Bit error rate, dispersion, frequency chirp, fiber communications, semiconductor laser.

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Authors: Atefeh Pourshafie, Mohsen. Saniei, S. S. Mortazavi, A. Saeedian

Abstract:

In this paper optimal capacitor placement problem has been formulated in a restructured distribution network. In this scenario the distribution network operator can consider reactive energy also as a service that can be sold to transmission system. Thus search for optimal location, size and number of capacitor banks with the objective of loss reduction, maximum income from selling reactive energy to transmission system and return on investment for capacitors, has been performed. Results is influenced with economic value of reactive energy, therefore problem has been solved for various amounts of it. The implemented optimization technique is genetic algorithm. For any value of reactive power economic value, when reverse of investment index increase and change from zero or negative values to positive values, the threshold value of selling reactive power has been obtained. This increasing price of economic parameter is reasonable until the network losses is less than loss before compensation.

Keywords: capacitor placement, deregulated electric market, distribution network optimization.

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Authors: Rohit Choudhry, Kumkum Garg

Abstract:

In this paper, we propose a hybrid machine learning system based on Genetic Algorithm (GA) and Support Vector Machines (SVM) for stock market prediction. A variety of indicators from the technical analysis field of study are used as input features. We also make use of the correlation between stock prices of different companies to forecast the price of a stock, making use of technical indicators of highly correlated stocks, not only the stock to be predicted. The genetic algorithm is used to select the set of most informative input features from among all the technical indicators. The results show that the hybrid GA-SVM system outperforms the stand alone SVM system.

Keywords: Genetic Algorithms, Support Vector Machines, Stock Market Forecasting.

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Authors: Vincent Fromentin

Abstract:

This paper examines whether or not immigration has a positive influence on the duration of unemployment, in a macroeconomic perspective. We analyse also whether the degree of labor market integration can influence migration. The integration of immigrants into the labor market is a recurrence theme in the work on the economic consequences of immigration. However, to our knowledge, no researchers have studied the impact of immigration on unemployment duration, and vice versa. With two methodology of research (panel estimations (OLS and 2SLS) and panel cointegration techniques), we show that migration seems to influence positively the short-term unemployment and negatively long-term unemployment, for 14 OECD destination countries. In addition, immigration seems to be conditioned by the structural and institutional characteristics of the labour market.

Keywords: international migration, unemployment duration, OECD countries, panel data

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Authors: Wafa Ghonaim

Abstract:

Though quite fast on growth, Islamic financing at large, and its diverse instruments, is a controversial matter among scholars. This is evident from the ongoing debates on its Shariah compliance. Arguments, however, are inciting doubts and concerns among clients about its credibility, which is harming this lucrative sector. The work here investigates, particularly, some issues related to the Tawarruq instrument. The work examines the issues of linking Murabaha and Wakala contracts, the reselling of commodities to same traders, and the transfer of ownerships. The work affirms that a multi-agent smart electronic market design would facilitate Shariah compliance. The smart market exploits the rational decision-making capabilities of autonomous proxy agents that enable the clients, traders, brokers, and the bank buy and sell commodities, and manage transactions and cash flow. The smart electronic market design delivers desirable qualities that terminate the need for Wakala contracts and the reselling of commodities to the same traders. It also resolves the ownership transfer issues by allowing stakeholders to trade independently. The bank administers the smart electronic market and assures reliability of trades, transactions and cash flow. A multi-agent simulation is presented to validate the concept and processes. We anticipate that the multi-agent smart electronic market design would deliver Shariah compliance of personal financing to the aspiration of scholars, banks, traders and potential clients.

Keywords: Islamic finance, Shariah compliance, smart electronic markets design, multi-agent systems.

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Authors: Durga Gautam, Mithulananthan Nadarajah

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This paper presents the influence of distributed generation (DG) on congestion and locational marginal price (LMP) in an optimal power flow (OPF) based wholesale electricity market. The problem of optimal placement to manage congestion and reduce LMP is formulated for the objective of social welfare maximization. From competitive electricity market standpoint, DGs have great value when they reduce load in particular locations and at particular times when feeders are heavily loaded. The paper lies on the groundwork that solution to optimal mix of generation and transmission resources can be achieved by addressing congestion and corresponding LMP. Obtained as lagrangian multiplier associated with active power flow equation for each node, LMP gives the short run marginal cost (SRMC) of electricity. Specific grid locations are examined to study the influence of DG penetration on congestion and corresponding shadow prices. The influence of DG on congestion and locational marginal prices has been demonstrated in a modified IEEE 14 bus test system.

Keywords: Congestion management, distributed generation, electricity market, locational marginal price, optimal power flow, social welfare.

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Authors: Jan Pavel

Abstract:

Public procurement is one of the most important areas in the public sector that introduces a possibility for a corruption. Due to the volume of the funds that are allocated through this institution (in the EU countries it is between 10 – 15% of GDP), it has very serious implications for the efficiency of public expenditures and the overall economic efficiency as well. Indicators that are usually used for the measurement of the corruption (such as Corruption Perceptions Index - CPI) show that the worst situation is in the post-communist countries and Mediterranean countries. The presented paper uses the Czech Republic as an example of a post-communist country and analyses the factors which influence the scope of corruption in public procurement. Moreover, the paper discusses indicators that could point at the public procurement market inefficiency. The presented results show that post-communist states use the institute of public contracts significantly more than the old member countries of the continental Europe. It has a very important implication because it gives more space for corruption. Furthermore, it appears that the inefficient functioning of public procurement market is clearly manifested in the low number of bids, low level of market transparency and an ineffective control system. Some of the observed indicators are statistically significantly correlated with the CPI.

Keywords: Czech Republic, Corruption, Public Procurement, Post-Communist Countries

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Authors: F. Di Pillo, G. Capece, L. Cricelli, N. Levialdi

Abstract:

The liberalization and privatization processes have forced public utility companies to face new competitive challenges, implementing strategies to gain market share and, at the same time, keep the old customers. To this end, many companies have carried out mergers, acquisitions and conglomerations in order to diversify their business. This paper focuses on companies operating in the free energy market in Italy. In the last decade, this sector has undergone profound changes that have radically changed the competitive scenario and have led companies to implement diversification strategies of the business. Our work aims to evaluate the economic and financial performances obtained by energy companies, following the beginning of the liberalization process, verifying the possible relationship with the implemented diversification strategies.

Keywords: Business diversification strategies, M&A, the Italian energy market liberalization, economic and financial performances.

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Authors: G. Erkomaishvili, M. Kobalava, T. Lazariashvili, M. Saghareishvili

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The article discusses the consumer market of agricultural products and agricultural policy in Georgia. It is noted that development of the strategic areas of the agricultural sector needs a special support. These strategic areas should create the country's major export potential. It is important to develop strategies to access to the international markets, form extensive marketing network etc., which will become the basis for the promotion and revenue growth of the country. The Georgian agricultural sector, with the right state policy and support, can achieve success and gain access to the world market with competitive agricultural products. The paper discusses the current condition of agriculture, export and import of agricultural products and agricultural policy in Georgia. The conducted research concludes the information that there is an increasing demand on the green goods in the world market. Natural and climatic conditions of Georgia give a serious possibility of implementing it. The research presents an agricultural development strategy in Georgia and the findings and based on them recommendations are proposed.

Keywords: Agriculture, agricultural cooperative society agricultural insurance, agricultural policy, export-import of agricultural products.

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Authors: Bassam Baroma

Abstract:

The main objective of this study is to test the relationship between numbers of variables representing the firm characteristics (market-related variables) and the extent of voluntary disclosure levels (forward-looking disclosure) in the annual reports of Egyptian firms listed on the Egyptian Stock Exchange. The results show that audit firm size is significantly positively correlated (in all the three years) with the level of forward-looking disclosure. However, industry type variable (which divided to: industries, cement, construction, petrochemicals and services), is found being insignificantly association with the level of forward-looking information disclosed in the annual reports for all the three years.

Keywords: Forward-looking disclosure, market-related variables, annual reports, Egyptian Stock Exchange.

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Authors: Emre Ünal, Hasan Başaran

Abstract:

In this study, starting with a predetermined Lunar free-return trajectory, an analysis of major near-Earth perturbations is carried out. Referencing to historical Apollo-13 flight, changes in the mission’s resultant perimoon and perigee altitudes with each perturbative effect are evaluated. The perturbations that were considered are Earth oblateness effects, up to the 6^th order, atmospheric drag, third body perturbations consisting of solar and planetary effects and solar radiation pressure effects. It is found that for a Moon mission, most of the main perturbative effects spoil the trajectory significantly while some came out to be negligible. It is seen that for apparent future request of constructing low cost, reliable and safe trajectories to the Moon, most of the orbital perturbations are crucial.

Keywords: Apollo-13 trajectory, atmospheric drag, lunar trajectories, oblateness effect, perturbative effects, solar radiation pressure, third body perturbations.

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Authors: Ivan Pavic, Fran Galetic, Tomislava Pavic Kramaric

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The purpose of this article is to analyze the degree of concentration in the banking market in EU member states as well as to determine the impact of the length of EU membership on the degree of concentration. In that sense several analysis were conducted, specifically, panel analysis, calculation of correlation coefficient and regression analysis of the impact of the length of EU membership on the degree of concentration. Panel analysis was conducted to determine whether there is a similar trend of concentration in three groups of countries - countries with a low, moderate and high level of concentration. The conducted panel analysis showed that in EU countries with a moderate level of concentration, the level of concentration decreases. The calculation of correlation showed that, to some extent, with other influential factors, the length of EU membership negatively affects the market concentration of the banking market. Using the regression analysis for investigation of the influence of the length of EU membership on the level of concentration in the banking sector in a particular country, the results reveal that there is a negative effect of the length in EU membership on market concentration, although it is not significantly influential variable.

Keywords: Banking sector, concentration, EU

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Authors: Biplab Bag

Abstract:

In this paper, the design of a coaxial feed single layer rectangular microstrip patch antenna for three different wireless communication band applications is presented. The proposed antenna is designed by using substrate Roger RT/duroid 5880 having permittivity of about 2.2 and tangent loss of 0.0009. The characteristics of the substrate are designed and to evaluate the performance of modeled antenna using HFSS v.11 EM simulator, from Ansoft. The proposed antenna has small in size and operates at 2.25GHz, 3.76GHz and 5.23GHz suitable for mobile satellite service (MSS) network, WiMAX and WLAN applications. The dimension of the patch and slots are optimized to obtain these desired functional frequency ranges. The simulation results with frequency response, radiation pattern and return loss, VSWR, Input Impedance are presented with appropriate table and graph.

Keywords: Microstrip, Tangent Loss, MSS, WiMAX, WLAN, Radiation Pattern, Return Loss, VSWR.

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Authors: M. Chobotová, Ž. Rylková

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Time full of changes which is associated with globalization, tougher competition, changes in the structures of markets and economic downturn, that all force companies to think about their competitive advantages. These changes can bring the company a competitive advantage and that can help improve competitive position in the market. Policy of the European Union is focused on the fast growing innovative companies which quickly respond to market demands and consequently increase its competitiveness. To meet those objectives companies need the right conditions and support of their state.

Keywords: Innovation, performance, measurements metrics, indices.

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Authors: Pongsiri K.

Abstract:

This research aimed to study the market feasibility for new brand coffee house, the case study of Thailand.. This study is a mixed methods research combining quantitative research and the qualitative research. Primary data 350 sets of questionnaires were distributed, and the high quality completed questionnaires of 320 sets returned. Research samples are identified as customers’ of Hi-end department stores in Thailand. The sources of secondary data were critical selected from highly reliable sources, both from public and private sectors. The results were used to classify the customer group into two main groups, the younger than 25 and the older than 25years old. Results of the younger group, are give priority to the dimension of coffee house and its services dimension more than others, then branding dimension and the product dimension respectively. On the other hand, the older group give the difference result as they rate the important of the branding, coffee house and its services, then the product respectively. Coffee consuming is not just the trend but it has become part of people lifestyle. And the new cultures also created by the wise businessman. Coffee was long produced and consumed in Thailand. But it is surprisingly the hi-end brand coffee houses in Thai market are mostly imported brands. The café business possibility for Thai brand coffee house in Thai market were discussed in the paper.

Keywords: Coffee House, Café, Coffee Consuming and new entry branding, market feasibility

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Authors: Edikan E. Akpanibah, Ogunmodimu Dupe Catherine

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The relevance of geometric Brownian motion (GBM) in modelling the behaviour of stock market prices (SMP) cannot be over emphasized taking into consideration the volatility of the SMP. Consequently, there is need to investigate how GBM models are being estimated and used in financial market to predict SMP. To achieve this, the GBM estimation and its application to the SMP of some selected companies are studied. The normal and log-normal distributions were used to determine the expected value, variance and co-variance. Furthermore, the GBM model was used to predict the SMP of some selected companies over a period of time and the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) were calculated and used to determine the accuracy of the GBM model in predicting the SMP of the four companies under consideration. It was observed that for all the four companies, their MAPE values were within the region of acceptance. Also, the MAPE values of our data were compared to an existing literature to test the accuracy of our prediction with respect to time of investment. Finally, some numerical simulations of the graphs of the SMP, expectations and variance of the four companies over a period of time were presented using MATLAB programming software.

Keywords: Stock Market, Geometric Brownian Motion, normal and log-normal distribution, mean absolute percentage error.

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Authors: Slavka Zeković

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A preliminary evaluation of the urban land system is presented in the article together with the instruments of land policy in Serbia. The main reason for the analysis is demand for definition of reform framework for urban land management in Serbia in the period of transition towards market-led system. It is concluded that due to the limitations of the current regulation it will be impossible in the future to apply market principles in the urban land policy (supply and demand of land, land capitalization, investment efficiency, et al.). Based on the estimation that the urban land system and land policy are key factors of competitiveness between regions and towns in Serbia, it is necessary to initiate changes in this field. There are indicated on an option of privatization of urban public land and possible establishment of leasehold land. A comparative analysis of the possibilities of the reform urban land system in Serbia has been carried out in relation to two approaches of market systems: (a) with dominant private ownership of urban land (neo/liberal approach) and (b) with dominant public ownership of urban land (system of leasehold)whose findings can be a basis for further study of the new system in Serbia.. The attanied results are part of studies matter for the making of Strategy of territorial development of Serbia.

Keywords: Urban Land System, Urban Land Management, Instruments of Land Policy, Evaluation, Market.

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Authors: K. Nirmala Devi, V. Murali Bhaskaran

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Traditional document representation for classification follows Bag of Words (BoW) approach to represent the term weights. The conventional method uses the Vector Space Model (VSM) to exploit the statistical information of terms in the documents and they fail to address the semantic information as well as order of the terms present in the documents. Although, the phrase based approach follows the order of the terms present in the documents rather than semantics behind the word. Therefore, a semantic concept based approach is used in this paper for enhancing the semantics by incorporating the ontology information. In this paper a novel method is proposed to forecast the intraday stock market price directional movement based on the sentiments from Twitter and money control news articles. The stock market forecasting is a very difficult and highly complicated task because it is affected by many factors such as economic conditions, political events and investor’s sentiment etc. The stock market series are generally dynamic, nonparametric, noisy and chaotic by nature. The sentiment analysis along with wisdom of crowds can automatically compute the collective intelligence of future performance in many areas like stock market, box office sales and election outcomes. The proposed method utilizes collective sentiments for stock market to predict the stock price directional movements. The collective sentiments in the above social media have powerful prediction on the stock price directional movements as up/down by using Granger Causality test.

Keywords: Bag of Words, Collective Sentiments, Ontology, Semantic relations, Sentiments, Social media, Stock Prediction, Twitter, Vector Space Model and wisdom of crowds.

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Authors: Rawaa H. El-Bidweihy, Hisham M. Abdelsalam, Ihab A. El-Khodary

Abstract:

Bayesian networks are now considered to be a promising tool in the field of energy with different applications. In this study, the aim was to indicate the states of a previous constructed Bayesian network related to the solar energy in Egypt and the factors affecting its market share, depending on the followed data distribution type for each factor, and using either the Z-distribution approach or the Chebyshev’s inequality theorem. Later on, the separate and the conditional probabilities of the states of each factor in the Bayesian network were derived, either from the collected and scrapped historical data or from estimations and past studies. Results showed that we could use the constructed model for scenario and decision analysis concerning forecasting the total percentage of the market share of the solar energy in Egypt by 2035 and using it as a stable renewable source for generating any type of energy needed. Also, it proved that whenever the use of the solar energy increases, the total costs decreases. Furthermore, we have identified different scenarios, such as the best, worst, 50/50, and most likely one, in terms of the expected changes in the percentage of the solar energy market share. The best scenario showed an 85% probability that the market share of the solar energy in Egypt will exceed 10% of the total energy market, while the worst scenario showed only a 24% probability that the market share of the solar energy in Egypt will exceed 10% of the total energy market. Furthermore, we applied policy analysis to check the effect of changing the controllable (decision) variable’s states acting as different scenarios, to show how it would affect the target nodes in the model. Additionally, the best environmental and economical scenarios were developed to show how other factors are expected to be, in order to affect the model positively. Additional evidence and derived probabilities were added for the weather dynamic nodes whose states depend on time, during the process of converting the Bayesian network into a dynamic Bayesian network.

Keywords: Bayesian network, Chebyshev, decision variable, dynamic Bayesian network, Z-distribution

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Authors: Samuel Carpintero

Abstract:

Public-private partnerships (PPP) arrangements have been extensively used in Canada, where the participation of private companies in financing and managing infrastructure projects has increased significantly in the last decade, particularly in the transportation sector. This paper analyses the evolution of the PPP market for transportation projects in Canada and examines the participation of Spanish developers in this market, which have been particularly successful in winning PPP contracts during the last decade.

Keywords: PPP, concession, infrastructure, construction.

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