**Commenced**in January 2007

**Frequency:**Monthly

**Edition:**International

**Paper Count:**1468

# Search results for: loss probability.

##### 1468 Evaluation of Expected Annual Loss Probabilities of RC Moment Resisting Frames

**Authors:**
Saemee Jun,
Dong-Hyeon Shin,
Tae-Sang Ahn,
Hyung-Joon Kim

**Abstract:**

Building loss estimation methodologies which have been advanced considerably in recent decades are usually used to estimate socio and economic impacts resulting from seismic structural damage. In accordance with these methods, this paper presents the evaluation of an annual loss probability of a reinforced concrete moment resisting frame designed according to Korean Building Code. The annual loss probability is defined by (1) a fragility curve obtained from a capacity spectrum method which is similar to a method adopted from HAZUS, and (2) a seismic hazard curve derived from annual frequencies of exceedance per peak ground acceleration. Seismic fragilities are computed to calculate the annual loss probability of a certain structure using functions depending on structural capacity, seismic demand, structural response and the probability of exceeding damage state thresholds. This study carried out a nonlinear static analysis to obtain the capacity of a RC moment resisting frame selected as a prototype building. The analysis results show that the probability of being extensive structural damage in the prototype building is expected to 0.01% in a year.

**Keywords:**
Expected annual loss,
Loss estimation,
RC structure,
Fragility analysis.

##### 1467 Coverage Probability Analysis of WiMAX Network under Additive White Gaussian Noise and Predicted Empirical Path Loss Model

**Authors:**
Chaudhuri Manoj Kumar Swain,
Susmita Das

**Abstract:**

This paper explores a detailed procedure of predicting a path loss (PL) model and its application in estimating the coverage probability in a WiMAX network. For this a hybrid approach is followed in predicting an empirical PL model of a 2.65 GHz WiMAX network deployed in a suburban environment. Data collection, statistical analysis, and regression analysis are the phases of operations incorporated in this approach and the importance of each of these phases has been discussed properly. The procedure of collecting data such as received signal strength indicator (RSSI) through experimental set up is demonstrated. From the collected data set, empirical PL and RSSI models are predicted with regression technique. Furthermore, with the aid of the predicted PL model, essential parameters such as PL exponent as well as the coverage probability of the network are evaluated. This research work may assist in the process of deployment and optimisation of any cellular network significantly.

**Keywords:**
WiMAX,
RSSI,
path loss,
coverage probability,
regression analysis.

##### 1466 Estimation of Bayesian Sample Size for Binomial Proportions Using Areas P-tolerance with Lowest Posterior Loss

**Authors:**
H. Bevrani,
N. Najafi

**Abstract:**

**Keywords:**
Bayesian inference,
Beta-binomial Distribution,
LPLcriteria,
quadratic loss function.

##### 1465 Performance Evaluation of the OCDM/WDM Technique for Optical Packet Switches

**Authors:**
V. Eramo,
L. Piazzo,
M. Listanti,
A. Germoni,
A Cianfrani

**Abstract:**

The performance of the Optical Code Division Multiplexing/ Wavelength Division Multiplexing (WDM/OCDM) technique for Optical Packet Switch is investigated. The impact on the performance of the impairment due to both Multiple Access Interference and Beat noise is studied. The Packet Loss Probability due to output packet contentions is evaluated as a function of the main switch and traffic parameters when Gold coherent optical codes are adopted. The Packet Loss Probability of the OCDM/WDM switch can reach 10-9 when M=16 wavelengths, Gold code of length L=511 and only 24 wavelength converters are used in the switch.

**Keywords:**
Optical code division multiplexing,
bufferless optical packet switch,
performance evaluation.

##### 1464 Performance of Soft Handover Algorithm in Varied Propagation Environments

**Authors:**
N. P. Singh,
Brahmjit Singh

**Abstract:**

**Keywords:**
CDMA,
Correlation coefficient,
Path loss exponent,
Probability of outage,
Soft handover.

##### 1463 The Research and Application of M/M/1/N Queuing Model with Variable Input Rates, Variable Service Rates and Impatient Customers

**Authors:**
Quanru Pan

**Abstract:**

**Keywords:**
variable input rates,
impatient customer,
variable servicerates,
profit maximization.

##### 1462 Remarks Regarding Queuing Model and Packet Loss Probability for the Traffic with Self-Similar Characteristics

**Authors:**
Mihails Kulikovs,
Ernests Petersons

**Abstract:**

**Keywords:**
Queuing System,
Packet Loss Probability,
Measurement-Based Admission Control (MBAC),
Performanceevaluation,
Quality of Service (QoS).

##### 1461 Coverage Availability for the IEEE 802.16 System over the SUI Channels with Rayleigh Fading

**Authors:**
Shiann-Shiun Jeng,
Chen-Wan Tsung,
Hong-You Liou,
Chun-Chieh Chang,
Jia-Ming Chen

**Abstract:**

**Keywords:**
OFDM,
coverage,
SUI channel,
IEEE 802.16

##### 1460 Effective Relay Communication for Scalable Video Transmission

**Authors:**
Jung Ah Park,
Zhijie Zhao,
Doug Young Suh,
Joern Ostermann

**Abstract:**

**Keywords:**
Relay communication,
Multiple Description Coding,
Scalable Video Coding

##### 1459 Modal Approach for Decoupling Damage Cost Dependencies in Building Stories

**Authors:**
Haj Najafi Leila,
Tehranizadeh Mohsen

**Abstract:**

Dependencies between diverse factors involved in probabilistic seismic loss evaluation are recognized to be an imperative issue in acquiring accurate loss estimates. Dependencies among component damage costs could be taken into account considering two partial distinct states of independent or perfectly-dependent for component damage states; however, in our best knowledge, there is no available procedure to take account of loss dependencies in story level. This paper attempts to present a method called "modal cost superposition method" for decoupling story damage costs subjected to earthquake ground motions dealt with closed form differential equations between damage cost and engineering demand parameters which should be solved in complex system considering all stories' cost equations by the means of the introduced "substituted matrixes of mass and stiffness". Costs are treated as probabilistic variables with definite statistic factors of median and standard deviation amounts and a presumed probability distribution. To supplement the proposed procedure and also to display straightforwardness of its application, one benchmark study has been conducted. Acceptable compatibility has been proven for the estimated damage costs evaluated by the new proposed modal and also frequently used stochastic approaches for entire building; however, in story level, insufficiency of employing modification factor for incorporating occurrence probability dependencies between stories has been revealed due to discrepant amounts of dependency between damage costs of different stories. Also, more dependency contribution in occurrence probability of loss could be concluded regarding more compatibility of loss results in higher stories than the lower ones, whereas reduction in incorporation portion of cost modes provides acceptable level of accuracy and gets away from time consuming calculations including some limited number of cost modes in high mode situation.

**Keywords:**
Dependency,
story-cost,
cost modes,
engineering demand parameter.

##### 1458 Probabilistic Robustness Assessment of Structures under Sudden Column-Loss Scenario

**Authors:**
Ali Y Al-Attraqchi,
P. Rajeev,
M. Javad Hashemi,
Riadh Al-Mahaidi

**Abstract:**

This paper presents a probabilistic incremental dynamic analysis (IDA) of a full reinforced concrete building subjected to column loss scenario for the assessment of progressive collapse. The IDA is chosen to explicitly account for uncertainties in loads and system capacity. Fragility curves are developed to predict the probability of progressive collapse given the loss of one or more columns. At a broader scale, it will also provide critical information needed to support the development of a new generation of design codes that attempt to explicitly quantify structural robustness.

**Keywords:**
Incremental dynamic analysis,
progressive collapse,
structural engineering,
pushdown analysis.

##### 1457 The Possibility-Probability Relationship for Bloodstream Concentrations of Physiologically Active Substances

**Authors:**
Arkady Bolotin

**Abstract:**

**Keywords:**
Possibility distributions,
possibility-probability relationship.

##### 1456 An Overview of Handoff Techniques in Cellular Networks

**Authors:**
Nasıf Ekiz,
Tara Salih,
Sibel Küçüköner,
Kemal Fidanboylu

**Abstract:**

Continuation of an active call is one of the most important quality measurements in the cellular systems. Handoff process enables a cellular system to provide such a facility by transferring an active call from one cell to another. Different approaches are proposed and applied in order to achieve better handoff service. The principal parameters used to evaluate handoff techniques are: forced termination probability and call blocking probability. The mechanisms such as guard channels and queuing handoff calls decrease the forced termination probability while increasing the call blocking probability. In this paper we present an overview about the issues related to handoff initiation and decision and discuss about different types of handoff techniques available in the literature.

**Keywords:**
Handoff,
Forced Termination Probability,
Blocking probability,
Handoff Initiation,
Handoff Decision,
Handoff Prioritization Schemes.

##### 1455 Video-On-Demand QoE Evaluation across Different Age-Groups and Its Significance for Network Capacity

**Authors:**
Mujtaba Roshan,
John A. Schormans

**Abstract:**

Quality of Experience (QoE) drives churn in the broadband networks industry, and good QoE plays a large part in the retention of customers. QoE is known to be affected by the Quality of Service (QoS) factors packet loss probability (PLP), delay and delay jitter caused by the network. Earlier results have shown that the relationship between these QoS factors and QoE is non-linear, and may vary from application to application. We use the network emulator Netem as the basis for experimentation, and evaluate how QoE varies as we change the emulated QoS metrics. Focusing on Video-on-Demand, we discovered that the reported QoE may differ widely for users of different age groups, and that the most demanding age group (the youngest) can require an order of magnitude lower PLP to achieve the same QoE than is required by the most widely studied age group of users. We then used a bottleneck TCP model to evaluate the capacity cost of achieving an order of magnitude decrease in PLP, and found it be (almost always) a 3-fold increase in link capacity that was required.

**Keywords:**
Quality of experience,
quality of service,
packet loss probability,
network capacity.

##### 1454 Computation of Probability Coefficients using Binary Decision Diagram and their Application in Test Vector Generation

**Authors:**
Ashutosh Kumar Singh,
Anand Mohan

**Abstract:**

**Keywords:**
Binary Decision Diagrams,
Spectral Coefficients,
Fault detection

##### 1453 Performance Evaluation of a Prioritized, Limited Multi-Server Processor-Sharing System That Includes Servers with Various Capacities

**Authors:**
Yoshiaki Shikata,
Nobutane Hanayama

**Abstract:**

We present a prioritized, limited multi-server processor sharing (PS) system where each server has various capacities, and N (≥2) priority classes are allowed in each PS server. In each prioritized, limited server, different service ratio is assigned to each class request, and the number of requests to be processed is limited to less than a certain number. Routing strategies of such prioritized, limited multi-server PS systems that take into account the capacity of each server are also presented, and a performance evaluation procedure for these strategies is discussed. Practical performance measures of these strategies, such as loss probability, mean waiting time, and mean sojourn time, are evaluated via simulation. In the PS server, at the arrival (or departure) of a request, the extension (shortening) of the remaining sojourn time of each request receiving service can be calculated by using the number of requests of each class and the priority ratio. Utilising a simulation program which executes these events and calculations, the performance of the proposed prioritized, limited multi-server PS rule can be analyzed. From the evaluation results, most suitable routing strategy for the loss or waiting system is clarified.

**Keywords:**
Processor sharing,
multi-server,
various capacity,
N priority classes,
routing strategy,
loss probability,
mean sojourn time,
mean waiting time,
simulation.

##### 1452 Vector Control Using Series Iron Loss Model of Induction, Motors and Power Loss Minimization

**Authors:**
Kheldoun Aissa,
Khodja Djalal Eddine

**Abstract:**

**Keywords:**
Field Oriented Controller,
Induction Motor,
Loss ModelController,
Series Iron Loss.

##### 1451 Determination of Sensitive Transmission Lines Due to the Effect of Protection System Hidden Failure in a Critical System Cascading Collapse

**Authors:**
N. A. Salim,
M. M. Othman,
I. Musirin,
M. S. Serwan

**Abstract:**

Protection system hidden failures have been identified as one of the main causes of system cascading collapse resulting to power system instability. In this paper, a systematic approach is presented in order to identify the probability of a system cascading collapse by taking into consideration the effect of protection system hidden failure. This includes the accurate calculation of the probability of hidden failure as it will provide significant impinge on the findings of the probability of system cascading collapse. The probability of a system cascading collapse is then used to identify the initial tripping of sensitive transmission lines which will contribute to a critical system cascading collapse. Based on the results obtained from this study, it is important to decide on the accurate value of the hidden failure probability as it will affect the probability of a system cascading collapse.

**Keywords:**
Critical system cascading collapse,
hidden failure,
probability of cascading collapse,
sensitive transmission lines.

##### 1450 An Approaching Index to Evaluate a forward Collision Probability

**Authors:**
Yuan-Lin Chen

**Abstract:**

This paper presents an approaching forward collision probability index (AFCPI) for alerting and assisting driver in keeping safety distance to avoid the forward collision accident in highway driving. The time to collision (TTC) and time headway (TH) are used to evaluate the TTC forward collision probability index (TFCPI) and the TH forward collision probability index (HFCPI), respectively. The Mamdani fuzzy inference algorithm is presented combining TFCPI and HFCPI to calculate the approaching collision probability index of the vehicle. The AFCPI is easier to understand for the driver who did not even have any professional knowledge in vehicle professional field. At the same time, the driver’s behavior is taken into account for suiting each driver. For the approaching index, the value 0 is indicating the 0% probability of forward collision, and the values 0.5 and 1 are indicating the 50% and 100% probabilities of forward collision, respectively. The AFCPI is useful and easy-to-understand for alerting driver to avoid the forward collision accidents when driving in highway.

**Keywords:**
Approaching index,
forward collision probability,
time to collision,
time headway.

##### 1449 Ruin Probability for a Markovian Risk Model with Two-type Claims

**Authors:**
Dongdong Zhang,
Deran Zhang

**Abstract:**

In this paper, a Markovian risk model with two-type claims is considered. In such a risk model, the occurrences of the two type claims are described by two point processes {Ni(t), t ¸ 0}, i = 1, 2, where {Ni(t), t ¸ 0} is the number of jumps during the interval (0, t] for the Markov jump process {Xi(t), t ¸ 0} . The ruin probability ª(u) of a company facing such a risk model is mainly discussed. An integral equation satisfied by the ruin probability ª(u) is obtained and the bounds for the convergence rate of the ruin probability ª(u) are given by using key-renewal theorem.

**Keywords:**
Risk model,
ruin probability,
Markov jump process,
integral equation.

##### 1448 Application of Adaptive Genetic Algorithm in Function Optimization

**Authors:**
Panpan Xu,
Shulin Sui

**Abstract:**

The crossover probability and mutation probability are the two important factors in genetic algorithm. The adaptive genetic algorithm can improve the convergence performance of genetic algorithm, in which the crossover probability and mutation probability are adaptively designed with the changes of fitness value. We apply adaptive genetic algorithm into a function optimization problem. The numerical experiment represents that adaptive genetic algorithm improves the convergence speed and avoids local convergence.

**Keywords:**
Genetic algorithm,
Adaptive genetic algorithm,
Function optimization.

##### 1447 Determination of the Best Fit Probability Distribution for Annual Rainfall in Karkheh River at Iran

**Authors:**
Karim Hamidi Machekposhti,
Hossein Sedghi

**Abstract:**

This study was designed to find the best-fit probability distribution of annual rainfall based on 50 years sample (1966-2015) in the Karkheh river basin at Iran using six probability distributions: Normal, 2-Parameter Log Normal, 3-Parameter Log Normal, Pearson Type 3, Log Pearson Type 3 and Gumbel distribution. The best fit probability distribution was selected using Stormwater Management and Design Aid (SMADA) software and based on the Residual Sum of Squares (R.S.S) between observed and estimated values Based on the R.S.S values of fit tests, the Log Pearson Type 3 and then Pearson Type 3 distributions were found to be the best-fit probability distribution at the Jelogir Majin and Pole Zal rainfall gauging station. The annual values of expected rainfall were calculated using the best fit probability distributions and can be used by hydrologists and design engineers in future research at studied region and other region in the world.

**Keywords:**
Log Pearson Type 3,
SMADA,
rainfall,
Karkheh River.

##### 1446 A Case Study on the Numerical-Probability Approach for Deep Excavation Analysis

**Authors:**
Komeil Valipourian

**Abstract:**

Urban advances and the growing need for developing infrastructures has increased the importance of deep excavations. In this study, after the introducing probability analysis as an important issue, an attempt has been made to apply it for the deep excavation project of Bangkok’s Metro as a case study. For this, the numerical probability model has been developed based on the Finite Difference Method and Monte Carlo sampling approach. The results indicate that disregarding the issue of probability in this project will result in an inappropriate design of the retaining structure. Therefore, probabilistic redesign of the support is proposed and carried out as one of the applications of probability analysis. A 50% reduction in the flexural strength of the structure increases the failure probability just by 8% in the allowable range and helps improve economic conditions, while maintaining mechanical efficiency. With regard to the lack of efficient design in most deep excavations, by considering geometrical and geotechnical variability, an attempt was made to develop an optimum practical design standard for deep excavations based on failure probability. On this basis, a practical relationship is presented for estimating the maximum allowable horizontal displacement, which can help improve design conditions without developing the probability analysis.

**Keywords:**
Numerical probability modeling,
deep excavation,
allowable maximum displacement,
finite difference method,
FDM.

##### 1445 Probability of Globality

**Authors:**
Eva Eggeling,
Dieter W. Fellner,
Torsten Ullrich

**Abstract:**

**Keywords:**
global optimization,
probability theory,
probability of
globality

##### 1444 Loss of P16/INK4A Protein Expression is a Common Abnormality in Hodgkin's Lymphoma

**Authors:**
Fawzi Irshaid,
Fatiha Dilmi,
Khaled Tarawneh,
Raji Hadeth,
Adnan Jaran,
Ahad Al-Khatib

**Abstract:**

P16/INK4A is tumor suppressor protein that plays a critical role in cell cycle regulation. Loss of P16 protein expression has been implicated in pathogenesis of many cancers, including lymphoma. Therefore, we sought to investigate if loss of P16 protein expression is associated with lymphoma and/or any specific lymphoma subtypes (Hodgkin-s lymphoma (HL) and nonHodgkin-s lymphoma (NHL)). Fifty-five lymphoma cases consisted of 30 cases of HL and 25 cases of NHL, with an age range of 3 to 78 years, were examined for loss of P16 by immunohistochemical technique using a specific antibody reacting against P16. In total, P16 loss was seen in 33% of all lymphoma cases. P16 loss was identified in 47.7% of HL cases. In contrast, only 16% of NHL showed loss of P16. Loss of P16 was seen in 67% of HL patients with 50 years of age or older, whereas P16 loss was found in only 42% of HL patients with less than 50 years of age. P16 loss in HL is somewhat higher in male (55%) than in female (30%). In subtypes of HL, P16 loss was found exclusively in all cases of lymphocyte depletion, lymphocyte predominance and unclassified cases, whereas P16 loss was seen in 39% of mixed cellularity and 29% of nodular sclerosis cases. In low grade NHL patients, P16 loss was seen in approximately one-third of cases, whereas no or very rare of P16 loss was found in intermediate and high grade cases. P16 loss did not show any correlation with age or gender of NHL patients. In conclusion, the high rate of P16 loss seen in our study suggests that loss of P16 expression plays a critical role in the pathogenesis of lymphoma, particularly with HL.

**Keywords:**
B-cells,
immunostaining,
P16 protein,
Reed-Sternberg cells,
tumors.

##### 1443 Approximation for Average Error Probability of BPSK in the Presence of Phase Error

**Authors:**
Yeonsoo Jang,
Dongweon Yoon,
Ki Ho Kwon,
Jaeyoon Lee,
Wooju Lee

**Abstract:**

**Keywords:**
Average error probability,
Phase shift keying,
Phase
error

##### 1442 The Giant Component in a Random Subgraph of a Weak Expander

**Authors:**
Yilun Shang

**Abstract:**

In this paper, we investigate the appearance of the giant component in random subgraphs G(p) of a given large finite graph family Gn = (Vn, En) in which each edge is present independently with probability p. We show that if the graph Gn satisfies a weak isoperimetric inequality and has bounded degree, then the probability p under which G(p) has a giant component of linear order with some constant probability is bounded away from zero and one. In addition, we prove the probability of abnormally large order of the giant component decays exponentially. When a contact graph is modeled as Gn, our result is of special interest in the study of the spread of infectious diseases or the identification of community in various social networks.

**Keywords:**
subgraph,
expander,
random graph,
giant component,
percolation.

##### 1441 The Locker Problem with Empty Lockers

**Authors:**
David Avis,
Luc Devroye,
Kazuo Iwama

**Abstract:**

We consider a cooperative game played by n players against a referee. The players names are randomly distributed among n lockers, with one name per locker. Each player can open up to half the lockers and each player must find his name. Once the game starts the players may not communicate. It has been previously shown that, quite surprisingly, an optimal strategy exists for which the success probability is never worse than 1 − ln 2 ≈ 0.306. In this paper we consider an extension where the number of lockers is greater than the number of players, so that some lockers are empty. We show that the players may still win with positive probability even if there are a constant k number of empty lockers. We show that for each fixed probability p, there is a constant c so that the players can win with probability at least p if they are allowed to open cn lockers.

**Keywords:**
Locker problem,
pointer-following algorithms.

##### 1440 Probabilities and the Persistence of Memory in a Bingo-like Carnival Game

**Authors:**
M. Glomski,
M. Lopes

**Abstract:**

Seemingly simple probabilities in the m-player game bingo have never been calculated. These probabilities include expected game length and the expected number of winners on a given turn. The difficulty in probabilistic analysis lies in the subtle interdependence among the m-many bingo game cards in play. In this paper, the game i got it!, a bingo variant, is considered. This variation provides enough weakening of the inter-player dependence to allow probabilistic analysis not possible for traditional bingo. The probability of winning in exactly k turns is calculated for a one-player game. Given a game of m-many players, the expected game length and tie probability are calculated. With these calculations, the game-s interesting payout scheme is considered.

**Keywords:**
Conditional probability,
games of chance,
npersongames,
probability theory.

##### 1439 Simple Procedure for Probability Calculation of Tensile Crack Occurring in Rigid Pavement – Case Study

**Authors:**
Aleš Florian,
Lenka Ševelová,
Jaroslav Žák

**Abstract:**

Formation of tensile cracks in concrete slabs of rigid pavement can be (among others) the initiation point of the other, more serious failures which can ultimately lead to complete degradation of the concrete slab and thus the whole pavement. Two measures can be used for reliability assessment of this phenomenon - the probability of failure and/or the reliability index. Different methods can be used for their calculation. The simple ones are called moment methods and simulation techniques. Two methods - FOSM Method and Simple Random Sampling Method - are verified and their comparison is performed. The influence of information about the probability distribution and the statistical parameters of input variables as well as of the limit state function on the calculated reliability index and failure probability are studied in three points on the lower surface of concrete slabs of the older type of rigid pavement formerly used in the Czech Republic.

**Keywords:**
Failure,
pavement,
probability,
reliability index,
simulation,
tensile crack.