Search results for: link breaking probability
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 1015

Search results for: link breaking probability

895 Dynamic Modeling of Tow Flexible Link Manipulators

Authors: E. Abedi, A. Ahmadi Nadooshan, S. Salehi

Abstract:

Modeling and vibration of a flexible link manipulator with tow flexible links and rigid joints are investigated which can include an arbitrary number of flexible links. Hamilton principle and finite element approach is proposed to model the dynamics of flexible manipulators. The links are assumed to be deflection due to bending. The association between elastic displacements of links is investigated, took into account the coupling effects of elastic motion and rigid motion. Flexible links are treated as Euler-Bernoulli beams and the shear deformation is thus abandoned. The dynamic behavior due to flexibility of links is well demonstrated through numerical simulation. The rigid-body motion and elastic deformations are separated by linearizing the equations of motion around the rigid body reference path. Simulation results are shown on for both position and force trajectory tracking tasks in the presence of varying parameters and unknown dynamics remarkably well. The proposed method can be used in both dynamic simulation and controller design.

Keywords: Flexible manipulator, flexible link, dynamicmodeling, end point.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2418
894 Reliability Analysis of Underground Pipelines Using Subset Simulation

Authors: Kong Fah Tee, Lutfor Rahman Khan, Hongshuang Li

Abstract:

An advanced Monte Carlo simulation method, called Subset Simulation (SS) for the time-dependent reliability prediction for underground pipelines has been presented in this paper. The SS can provide better resolution for low failure probability level with efficient investigating of rare failure events which are commonly encountered in pipeline engineering applications. In SS method, random samples leading to progressive failure are generated efficiently and used for computing probabilistic performance by statistical variables. SS gains its efficiency as small probability event as a product of a sequence of intermediate events with larger conditional probabilities. The efficiency of SS has been demonstrated by numerical studies and attention in this work is devoted to scrutinise the robustness of the SS application in pipe reliability assessment. It is hoped that the development work can promote the use of SS tools for uncertainty propagation in the decision-making process of underground pipelines network reliability prediction.

Keywords: Underground pipelines, Probability of failure, Reliability and Subset Simulation.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 3497
893 Ruin Probabilities with Dependent Rates of Interest and Autoregressive Moving Average Structures

Authors: Fenglong Guo, Dingcheng Wang

Abstract:

This paper studies ruin probabilities in two discrete-time risk models with premiums, claims and rates of interest modelled by three autoregressive moving average processes. Generalized Lundberg inequalities for ruin probabilities are derived by using recursive technique. A numerical example is given to illustrate the applications of these probability inequalities.

Keywords: Lundberg inequality, NWUC, Renewal recursive technique, Ruin probability

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1469
892 Wind Fragility for Honeycomb Roof Cladding Panels Using Screw Pull-Out Capacity

Authors: Viriyavudh Sim, Woo Young Jung

Abstract:

The failure of roof cladding mostly occurs due to the failing of the connection between claddings and purlins, which is the pull-out of the screw connecting the two parts when the pull-out load, i.e. typhoon, is higher than the resistance of the connection screw. As typhoon disasters in Korea are constantly on the rise, probability risk assessment (PRA) has become a vital tool to evaluate the performance of civil structures. In this study, we attempted to determine the fragility of roof cladding with the screw connection. Experimental study was performed to evaluate the pull-out resistance of screw joints between honeycomb panels and back frames. Subsequently, by means of Monte Carlo Simulation method, probability of failure for these types of roof cladding was determined. The results that the failure of roof cladding was depends on their location on the roof, for example, the edge most panel has the highest probability of failure.

Keywords: Monte Carlo Simulation, roof cladding, screw pull-out strength, wind fragility

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 899
891 Improved Segmentation of Speckled Images Using an Arithmetic-to-Geometric Mean Ratio Kernel

Authors: J. Daba, J. Dubois

Abstract:

In this work, we improve a previously developed segmentation scheme aimed at extracting edge information from speckled images using a maximum likelihood edge detector. The scheme was based on finding a threshold for the probability density function of a new kernel defined as the arithmetic mean-to-geometric mean ratio field over a circular neighborhood set and, in a general context, is founded on a likelihood random field model (LRFM). The segmentation algorithm was applied to discriminated speckle areas obtained using simple elliptic discriminant functions based on measures of the signal-to-noise ratio with fractional order moments. A rigorous stochastic analysis was used to derive an exact expression for the cumulative density function of the probability density function of the random field. Based on this, an accurate probability of error was derived and the performance of the scheme was analysed. The improved segmentation scheme performed well for both simulated and real images and showed superior results to those previously obtained using the original LRFM scheme and standard edge detection methods. In particular, the false alarm probability was markedly lower than that of the original LRFM method with oversegmentation artifacts virtually eliminated. The importance of this work lies in the development of a stochastic-based segmentation, allowing an accurate quantification of the probability of false detection. Non visual quantification and misclassification in medical ultrasound speckled images is relatively new and is of interest to clinicians.

Keywords: Discriminant function, false alarm, segmentation, signal-to-noise ratio, skewness, speckle.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1599
890 Influence of Maximum Fatigue Load on Probabilistic Aspect of Fatigue Crack Propagation Life at Specified Grown Crack in Magnesium Alloys

Authors: Seon Soon Choi

Abstract:

The principal purpose of this paper is to find the influence of maximum fatigue load on the probabilistic aspect of fatigue crack propagation life at a specified grown crack in magnesium alloys. The experiments of fatigue crack propagation are carried out in laboratory air under different conditions of the maximum fatigue loads to obtain the fatigue crack propagation data for the statistical analysis. In order to analyze the probabilistic aspect of fatigue crack propagation life, the goodness-of fit test for probability distribution of the fatigue crack propagation life at a specified grown crack is implemented through Anderson-Darling test. The good probability distribution of the fatigue crack propagation life is also verified under the conditions of the maximum fatigue loads.

Keywords: Fatigue crack propagation life, magnesium alloys, maximum fatigue load, probability.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 909
889 Evolutionary Dynamics on Small-World Networks

Authors: Jan Rychtar, Brian Stadler

Abstract:

We study how the outcome of evolutionary dynamics on graphs depends on a randomness on the graph structure. We gradually change the underlying graph from completely regular (e.g. a square lattice) to completely random. We find that the fixation probability increases as the randomness increases; nevertheless, the increase is not significant and thus the fixation probability could be estimated by the known formulas for underlying regular graphs.

Keywords: evolutionary dynamics, small-world networks

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1178
888 Impact of Weather Conditions on Generalized Frequency Division Multiplexing over Gamma Gamma Channel

Authors: Muhammad Sameer Ahmed, Piotr Remlein, Tansal Gucluoglu

Abstract:

The technique called as Generalized frequency division multiplexing (GFDM) used in the free space optical channel can be a good option for implementation free space optical communication systems. This technique has several strengths e.g. good spectral efficiency, low peak-to-average power ratio (PAPR), adaptability and low co-channel interference. In this paper, the impact of weather conditions such as haze, rain and fog on GFDM over the gamma-gamma channel model is discussed. A Trade off between link distance and system performance under intense weather conditions is also analysed. The symbol error probability (SEP) of GFDM over the gamma-gamma turbulence channel is derived and verified with the computer simulations.

Keywords: Free space optics, generalized frequency division multiplexing, weather conditions, gamma gamma distribution.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 594
887 ABURAS Index: A Statistically Developed Index for Dengue-Transmitting Vector Population Prediction

Authors: Hani M. Aburas

Abstract:

“Dengue" is an African word meaning “bone breaking" because it causes severe joint and muscle pain that feels like bones are breaking. It is an infectious disease mainly transmitted by female mosquito, Aedes aegypti, and causes four serotypes of dengue viruses. In recent years, a dramatic increase in the dengue fever confirmed cases around the equator-s belt has been reported. Several conventional indices have been designed so far to monitor the transmitting vector populations known as House Index (HI), Container Index (CI), Breteau Index (BI). However, none of them describes the adult mosquito population size which is important to direct and guide comprehensive control strategy operations since number of infected people has a direct relationship with the vector density. Therefore, it is crucial to know the population size of the transmitting vector in order to design a suitable and effective control program. In this context, a study is carried out to report a new statistical index, ABURAS Index, using Poisson distribution based on the collection of vector population in Jeddah Governorate, Saudi Arabia.

Keywords: Poisson distribution, statistical index, prediction, Aedes aegypti.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1862
886 A Simplified Distribution for Nonlinear Seas

Authors: M. A. Tayfun, M. A. Alkhalidi

Abstract:

The exact theoretical expression describing the probability distribution of nonlinear sea-surface elevations derived from the second-order narrowband model has a cumbersome form that requires numerical computations, not well-disposed to theoretical or practical applications. Here, the same narrowband model is reexamined to develop a simpler closed-form approximation suitable for theoretical and practical applications. The salient features of the approximate form are explored, and its relative validity is verified with comparisons to other readily available approximations, and oceanic data.

Keywords: Ocean waves, probability distributions, second-order nonlinearities, skewness coefficient, wave steepness.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2043
885 Quantifying and Adjusting the Effects of Publication Bias in Continuous Meta-Analysis

Authors: N.R.N. Idris

Abstract:

This study uses simulated meta-analysis to assess the effects of publication bias on meta-analysis estimates and to evaluate the efficacy of the trim and fill method in adjusting for these biases. The estimated effect sizes and the standard error were evaluated in terms of the statistical bias and the coverage probability. The results demonstrate that if publication bias is not adjusted it could lead to up to 40% bias in the treatment effect estimates. Utilization of the trim and fill method could reduce the bias in the overall estimate by more than half. The method is optimum in presence of moderate underlying bias but has minimal effects in presence of low and severe publication bias. Additionally, the trim and fill method improves the coverage probability by more than half when subjected to the same level of publication bias as those of the unadjusted data. The method however tends to produce false positive results and will incorrectly adjust the data for publication bias up to 45 % of the time. Nonetheless, the bias introduced into the estimates due to this adjustment is minimal

Keywords: Publication bias, Trim and Fill method, percentage relative bias, coverage probability

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1507
884 Direct Sequence Spread Spectrum Technique with Residue Number System

Authors: M. I. Youssef, A. E. Emam, M. Abd Elghany

Abstract:

In this paper, a residue number arithmetic is used in direct sequence spread spectrum system, this system is evaluated and the bit error probability of this system is compared to that of non residue number system. The effect of channel bandwidth, PN sequences, multipath effect and modulation scheme are studied. A Matlab program is developed to measure the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR), and the bit error probability for the various schemes.

Keywords: Spread Spectrum, Direct sequence, Bit errorprobability and Residue number system.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 3573
883 Data Oriented Modeling of Uniform Random Variable: Applied Approach

Authors: Ahmad Habibizad Navin, Mehdi Naghian Fesharaki, Mirkamal Mirnia, Mohamad Teshnelab, Ehsan Shahamatnia

Abstract:

In this paper we introduce new data oriented modeling of uniform random variable well-matched with computing systems. Due to this conformity with current computers structure, this modeling will be efficiently used in statistical inference.

Keywords: Uniform random variable, Data oriented modeling, Statistical inference, Prodigraph, Statistically complete tree, Uniformdigital probability digraph, Uniform n-complete probability tree.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1567
882 Optimization for Reducing Handoff Latency and Utilization of Bandwidth in ATM Networks

Authors: Pooja, Megha Kulshrestha, V. K. Banga, Parvinder S. Sandhu

Abstract:

To support mobility in ATM networks, a number of technical challenges need to be resolved. The impact of handoff schemes in terms of service disruption, handoff latency, cost implications and excess resources required during handoffs needs to be addressed. In this paper, a one phase handoff and route optimization solution using reserved PVCs between adjacent ATM switches to reroute connections during inter-switch handoff is studied. In the second phase, a distributed optimization process is initiated to optimally reroute handoff connections. The main objective is to find the optimal operating point at which to perform optimization subject to cost constraint with the purpose of reducing blocking probability of inter-switch handoff calls for delay tolerant traffic. We examine the relation between the required bandwidth resources and optimization rate. Also we calculate and study the handoff blocking probability due to lack of bandwidth for resources reserved to facilitate the rapid rerouting.

Keywords: Wireless ATM, Mobility, Latency, Optimization rateand Blocking Probability.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1380
881 Improving Flash Flood Forecasting with a Bayesian Probabilistic Approach: A Case Study on the Posina Basin in Italy

Authors: Zviad Ghadua, Biswa Bhattacharya

Abstract:

The Flash Flood Guidance (FFG) provides the rainfall amount of a given duration necessary to cause flooding. The approach is based on the development of rainfall-runoff curves, which helps us to find out the rainfall amount that would cause flooding. An alternative approach, mostly experimented with Italian Alpine catchments, is based on determining threshold discharges from past events and on finding whether or not an oncoming flood has its magnitude more than some critical discharge thresholds found beforehand. Both approaches suffer from large uncertainties in forecasting flash floods as, due to the simplistic approach followed, the same rainfall amount may or may not cause flooding. This uncertainty leads to the question whether a probabilistic model is preferable over a deterministic one in forecasting flash floods. We propose the use of a Bayesian probabilistic approach in flash flood forecasting. A prior probability of flooding is derived based on historical data. Additional information, such as antecedent moisture condition (AMC) and rainfall amount over any rainfall thresholds are used in computing the likelihood of observing these conditions given a flash flood has occurred. Finally, the posterior probability of flooding is computed using the prior probability and the likelihood. The variation of the computed posterior probability with rainfall amount and AMC presents the suitability of the approach in decision making in an uncertain environment. The methodology has been applied to the Posina basin in Italy. From the promising results obtained, we can conclude that the Bayesian approach in flash flood forecasting provides more realistic forecasting over the FFG.

Keywords: Flash flood, Bayesian, flash flood guidance, FFG, forecasting, Posina.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 672
880 The Impact of Trade on Social Development

Authors: Umut Gunduz, Mehtap Hisarciklilar, Tolga Kaya

Abstract:

Studies revealing the positive relationship between trade and income are often criticized with the argument that “development should mean more than rising incomes". Taking this argument as a base and utilizing panel data, Davies and Quinlivan [1] have demonstrated that increases in trade are positively associated with future increases in social welfare as measured by the Human Development Index (HDI). The purpose of this study is twofold: Firstly, utilizing an income based country classification; it is aimed to investigate whether the positive association between foreign trade and HDI is valid within all country groups. Secondly, keeping the same categorization as a base; it is aimed to reveal whether the positive link between trade and HDI still exists when the income components of the index are excluded. Employing a panel data framework of 106 countries, this study reveals that the positive link between trade and human development is valid only for high and medium income countries. Moreover, the positive link between trade and human development diminishes in lower-medium income countries when only non-income components of the index are taken into consideration.

Keywords: HDI, foreign trade, development, panel data.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2658
879 Stochastic Risk Analysis Framework for Building Construction Projects

Authors: Abdulkadir Abu Lawal

Abstract:

The study was carried out to establish the probability density function of some selected building construction projects of similar complexity delivered using Bill of Quantities (BQ) and Lump Sum (LS) forms of contract, and to draw a reliability scenario for each form of contract. 30 of such delivered projects are analyzed for each of the contract forms using Weibull Analysis, and their Weibull functions (α, and β) are determined based on their completion times. For the BQ form of contract delivered projects, α is calculated as 1.6737E20 and β as + 0.0115 and for the LS form, α is found to be 5.6556E03 and β is determined as + 0.4535. Using these values, respective probability density functions are calculated and plotted, as handy tool for risk analysis of future projects of similar characteristics. By input of variables from other projects, decision making processes can be made for a whole project or its components using EVM Analysis in project evaluation and review techniques. This framework, as a quantitative approach, depends on the assumption of normality in projects completion time, it can help greatly in determining the completion time probability for veritable projects using any of the contract forms under consideration. Projects aspects that are not amenable to measurement, on the other hand, can be analyzed using fuzzy sets and fuzzy logic. This scenario can be drawn for different types of building construction projects, and using different suitable forms of contract in projects delivery.

Keywords: Building construction, Projects, Forms of contract, Probability density function, Reliability scenario.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 713
878 Performance of Soft Handover Algorithm in Varied Propagation Environments

Authors: N. P. Singh, Brahmjit Singh

Abstract:

CDMA cellular networks support soft handover, which guarantees the continuity of wireless services and enhanced communication quality. Cellular networks support multimedia services under varied propagation environmental conditions. In this paper, we have shown the effect of characteristic parameters of the cellular environments on the soft handover performance. We consider path loss exponent, standard deviation of shadow fading and correlation coefficient of shadow fading as the characteristic parameters of the radio propagation environment. A very useful statistical measure for characterizing the performance of mobile radio system is the probability of outage. It is shown through numerical results that above parameters have decisive effect on the probability of outage and hence the overall performance of the soft handover algorithm.

Keywords: CDMA, Correlation coefficient, Path loss exponent, Probability of outage, Soft handover.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1659
877 Burden Sharing in Combating Terrorist Financing

Authors: M. Bogers, R. Beeres

Abstract:

This paper contributes to the literature concerning burden sharing. We provide a quantitative expression of the burden sharing behaviour of 174 states in the case of combating terrorist financing and address specific burden sharing issues in this context (i.e., weakest link; no substitutability). We conclude that advanced states have shown more effort to control terrorist financing than developing states. In this particular case, there is an incentive for advanced states to support developing states. Failing to do so will make the total financial system worse off.

Keywords: Burden sharing, combating terrorist financing, weakest link.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1804
876 Parametric Modeling Approach for Call Holding Times for IP based Public Safety Networks via EM Algorithm

Authors: Badarch Tuyatsetseg

Abstract:

This paper presents parametric probability density models for call holding times (CHTs) into emergency call center based on the actual data collected for over a week in the public Emergency Information Network (EIN) in Mongolia. When the set of chosen candidates of Gamma distribution family is fitted to the call holding time data, it is observed that the whole area in the CHT empirical histogram is underestimated due to spikes of higher probability and long tails of lower probability in the histogram. Therefore, we provide the Gaussian parametric model of a mixture of lognormal distributions with explicit analytical expressions for the modeling of CHTs of PSNs. Finally, we show that the CHTs for PSNs are fitted reasonably by a mixture of lognormal distributions via the simulation of expectation maximization algorithm. This result is significant as it expresses a useful mathematical tool in an explicit manner of a mixture of lognormal distributions.

Keywords: A mixture of lognormal distributions, modeling call holding times, public safety network.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1597
875 Adaptive Hysteresis Based SHAF Using PI and FLC Controller for Current Harmonics Mitigation

Authors: Ravit Gautam, Dipen A. Mistry, Manmohan Singh Meena, Bhupelly Dheeraj, Suresh Mikkili

Abstract:

Due to the increased use of the power electronic equipment, harmonics in the power system has increased to a greater extent. These harmonics results a poor power quality causing a major effect on the customers. Shunt active filters (SHAF) are used for the mitigations of the current harmonics and to maintain constant DC link voltage. PI and Fuzzy logic controllers (FLC) were used to control the performance of the shunt active filter under both balance and unbalance source voltage condition. The results found were not satisfying the IEEE-519 standards of THD to be less than 5%. Hysteresis band current control was used to obtain the gating signals for SHAF, though it has some drawbacks and thus to obtain a better performance of the SHAF to mitigate the harmonics, adaptive hysteresis band current control scheme is implemented. Adaptive hysteresis based SHAF is used to obtain better compensation of current harmonics and to regulate the DC link voltage in a better way.

Keywords: DC Link Voltage, Fuzzy Logic Controller, Adaptive Hysteresis, Harmonics, Shunt Active Filter.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2483
874 Cognitive Relaying in Interference Limited Spectrum Sharing Environment: Outage Probability and Outage Capacity

Authors: Md Fazlul Kader, Soo Young Shin

Abstract:

In this paper, we consider a cognitive relay network (CRN) in which the primary receiver (PR) is protected by peak transmit power ¯PST and/or peak interference power Q constraints. In addition, the interference effect from the primary transmitter (PT) is considered to show its impact on the performance of the CRN. We investigate the outage probability (OP) and outage capacity (OC) of the CRN by deriving closed-form expressions over Rayleigh fading channel. Results show that both the OP and OC improve by increasing the cooperative relay nodes as well as when the PT is far away from the SR.

Keywords: Cognitive relay, outage, interference limited, decode-and-forward (DF).

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1862
873 Upgrading Performance of DSR Routing Protocol in Mobile Ad Hoc Networks

Authors: Mehdi Alilou, Mehdi Dehghan

Abstract:

Routing in mobile ad hoc networks is a challenging task because nodes are free to move randomly. In DSR like all On- Demand routing algorithms, route discovery mechanism is associated with great delay. More Clearly in DSR routing protocol to send route reply packet, when current route breaks, destination seeks a new route. In this paper we try to change route selection mechanism proactively. We also define a link stability parameter in which a stability value is assigned to each link. Given this feature, destination node can estimate stability of routes and can select the best and more stable route. Therefore we can reduce the delay and jitter of sending data packets.

Keywords: DSR, MANET, proactive, routing.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2300
872 Modeling Default Probabilities of the Chosen Czech Banks in the Time of the Financial Crisis

Authors: Petr Gurný

Abstract:

One of the most important tasks in the risk management is the correct determination of probability of default (PD) of particular financial subjects. In this paper a possibility of determination of financial institution’s PD according to the creditscoring models is discussed. The paper is divided into the two parts. The first part is devoted to the estimation of the three different models (based on the linear discriminant analysis, logit regression and probit regression) from the sample of almost three hundred US commercial banks. Afterwards these models are compared and verified on the control sample with the view to choose the best one. The second part of the paper is aimed at the application of the chosen model on the portfolio of three key Czech banks to estimate their present financial stability. However, it is not less important to be able to estimate the evolution of PD in the future. For this reason, the second task in this paper is to estimate the probability distribution of the future PD for the Czech banks. So, there are sampled randomly the values of particular indicators and estimated the PDs’ distribution, while it’s assumed that the indicators are distributed according to the multidimensional subordinated Lévy model (Variance Gamma model and Normal Inverse Gaussian model, particularly). Although the obtained results show that all banks are relatively healthy, there is still high chance that “a financial crisis” will occur, at least in terms of probability. This is indicated by estimation of the various quantiles in the estimated distributions. Finally, it should be noted that the applicability of the estimated model (with respect to the used data) is limited to the recessionary phase of the financial market.

Keywords: Credit-scoring Models, Multidimensional Subordinated Lévy Model, Probability of Default.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1874
871 Energy Efficient and Reliable Geographic Routing in Wireless Sensor Networks

Authors: Eunil Park, Kwangsu Cho

Abstract:

The wireless link can be unreliable in realistic wireless sensor networks (WSNs). Energy efficient and reliable data forwarding is important because each node has limited resources. Therefore, we must suggest an optimal solution that considers using the information of the node-s characteristics. Previous routing protocols were unsuited to realistic asymmetric WSNs. In this paper, we propose a Protocol that considers Both sides of Link-quality and Energy (PBLE), an optimal routing protocol that balances modified link-quality, distance and energy. Additionally, we propose a node scheduling method. PBLE achieves a longer lifetime than previous routing protocols and is more energy-efficient. PBLE uses energy, local information and both sides of PRR in a 1-hop distance. We explain how to send data packets to the destination node using the node's information. Simulation shows PBLE improves delivery rate and network lifetime compared to previous schemes. Moreover, we show the improvement in various WSN environments.

Keywords: energy-efficient, lifetime, PBLE, unreliable

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1599
870 A 7DOF Manipulator Control in an Unknown Environment based on an Exact Algorithm

Authors: Pavel K. Lopatin, Artyom S. Yegorov

Abstract:

An exact algorithm for a n-link manipulator movement amidst arbitrary unknown static obstacles is presented. The algorithm guarantees the reaching of a target configuration of the manipulator in a finite number of steps. The algorithm is reduced to a finite number of calls of a subroutine for planning a trajectory in the presence of known forbidden states. The polynomial approximation algorithm which is used as the subroutine is presented. The results of the exact algorithm implementation for the control of a seven link (7 degrees of freedom, 7DOF) manipulator are given.

Keywords: Manipulator, trajectory planning, unknown obstacles

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1232
869 Probability Distribution of Rainfall Depth at Hourly Time-Scale

Authors: S. Dan'azumi, S. Shamsudin, A. A. Rahman

Abstract:

Rainfall data at fine resolution and knowledge of its characteristics plays a major role in the efficient design and operation of agricultural, telecommunication, runoff and erosion control as well as water quality control systems. The paper is aimed to study the statistical distribution of hourly rainfall depth for 12 representative stations spread across Peninsular Malaysia. Hourly rainfall data of 10 to 22 years period were collected and its statistical characteristics were estimated. Three probability distributions namely, Generalized Pareto, Exponential and Gamma distributions were proposed to model the hourly rainfall depth, and three goodness-of-fit tests, namely, Kolmogorov-Sminov, Anderson-Darling and Chi-Squared tests were used to evaluate their fitness. Result indicates that the east cost of the Peninsular receives higher depth of rainfall as compared to west coast. However, the rainfall frequency is found to be irregular. Also result from the goodness-of-fit tests show that all the three models fit the rainfall data at 1% level of significance. However, Generalized Pareto fits better than Exponential and Gamma distributions and is therefore recommended as the best fit.

Keywords: Goodness-of-fit test, Hourly rainfall, Malaysia, Probability distribution.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2847
868 Opportunistic Routing with Secure Coded Wireless Multicast Using MAS Approach

Authors: E. Golden Julie, S. Tamil Selvi, Y. Harold Robinson

Abstract:

Many Wireless Sensor Network (WSN) applications necessitate secure multicast services for the purpose of broadcasting delay sensitive data like video files and live telecast at fixed time-slot. This work provides a novel method to deal with end-to-end delay and drop rate of packets. Opportunistic Routing chooses a link based on the maximum probability of packet delivery ratio. Null Key Generation helps in authenticating packets to the receiver. Markov Decision Process based Adaptive Scheduling algorithm determines the time slot for packet transmission. Both theoretical analysis and simulation results show that the proposed protocol ensures better performance in terms of packet delivery ratio, average end-to-end delay and normalized routing overhead.

Keywords: Delay-sensitive data, Markovian Decision Process based Adaptive Scheduling, Opportunistic Routing, Digital Signature authentication.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1908
867 Establishing a Probabilistic Model of Extrapolated Wind Speed Data for Wind Energy Prediction

Authors: Mussa I. Mgwatu, Reuben R. M. Kainkwa

Abstract:

Wind is among the potential energy resources which can be harnessed to generate wind energy for conversion into electrical power. Due to the variability of wind speed with time and height, it becomes difficult to predict the generated wind energy more optimally. In this paper, an attempt is made to establish a probabilistic model fitting the wind speed data recorded at Makambako site in Tanzania. Wind speeds and direction were respectively measured using anemometer (type AN1) and wind Vane (type WD1) both supplied by Delta-T-Devices at a measurement height of 2 m. Wind speeds were then extrapolated for the height of 10 m using power law equation with an exponent of 0.47. Data were analysed using MINITAB statistical software to show the variability of wind speeds with time and height, and to determine the underlying probability model of the extrapolated wind speed data. The results show that wind speeds at Makambako site vary cyclically over time; and they conform to the Weibull probability distribution. From these results, Weibull probability density function can be used to predict the wind energy.

Keywords: Probabilistic models, wind speed, wind energy

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2294
866 The Research and Application of M/M/1/N Queuing Model with Variable Input Rates, Variable Service Rates and Impatient Customers

Authors: Quanru Pan

Abstract:

How to maintain the service speeds for the business to make the biggest profit is a problem worthy of study, which is discussed in this paper with the use of queuing theory. An M/M/1/N queuing model with variable input rates, variable service rates and impatient customers is established, and the following conclusions are drawn: the stationary distribution of the model, the relationship between the stationary distribution and the probability that there are n customers left in the system when a customer leaves (not including the customer who leaves himself), the busy period of the system, the average operating cycle, the loss probability for the customers not entering the system while they arriving at the system, the mean of the customers who leaves the system being for impatient, the loss probability for the customers not joining the queue due to the limited capacity of the system and many other indicators. This paper also indicates that the following conclusion is not correct: the more customers the business serve, the more profit they will get. At last, this paper points out the appropriate service speeds the business should keep to make the biggest profit.

Keywords: variable input rates, impatient customer, variable servicerates, profit maximization.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1903