Search results for: health risk assessment

Authors: Nur Atiqah Rochin Demong, Jie Lu, Farookh Khadeer Hussain

Abstract:

Property investment in the real estate industry has a high risk due to the uncertainty factors that will affect the decisions made and high cost. Analytic hierarchy process has existed for some time in which referred to an expert-s opinion to measure the uncertainty of the risk factors for the risk analysis. Therefore, different level of experts- experiences will create different opinion and lead to the conflict among the experts in the field. The objective of this paper is to propose a new technique to measure the uncertainty of the risk factors based on multidimensional data model and data mining techniques as deterministic approach. The propose technique consist of a basic framework which includes four modules: user, technology, end-user access tools and applications. The property investment risk analysis defines as a micro level analysis as the features of the property will be considered in the analysis in this paper.

Keywords: Uncertainty factors, data mining, multidimensional data model, risk analysis.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2868

Authors: I. Szer, J. Szer, M. Pieńko, A. Robak, P. Jamińska-Gadomska

Abstract:

Work at height, such as construction works on scaffoldings, is associated with a considerable risk. Scaffolding workers are usually exposed to changing weather conditions what can additionally increase the risk of dangerous situations. Therefore, it is very important to foresee the risk of adverse conditions to which the worker may be exposed. The data from meteorological stations may be used to asses this risk. However, the dependency between weather conditions on a scaffolding and in the vicinity of meteorological station, should be determined. The paper presents an analysis of two selected environmental parameters which have influence on the behavior of workers – air temperature and wind speed. Measurements of these parameters were made between April and November of 2016 on ten scaffoldings located in different parts of Poland. They were compared with the results taken from the meteorological stations located closest to the studied scaffolding. The results gathered from the construction sites and meteorological stations were not the same, but statistical analyses have shown that they were correlated.

Keywords: Scaffoldings, health and safety at work, temperature, wind speed.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1025

Authors: Marilena Ianculescu, Adriana Alexandru

Abstract:

Internet of Health Things (IoHT) has already proved to be a persuasive means to support a proper assessment of the living conditions by collecting a huge variety of data. For a customized health management of a senior patient, IoHT provides the capacity to build a dynamic solution for sustaining the shift inside the patient-physician relationship by allowing a real-time and continuous remote monitoring of the health status, well-being, safety and activities of the senior, especially in a non-clinical environment. Thus, is created a win-win solution in which both the patient and the physician enhance their involvement and shared decision-making, with significant outcomes. Health monitoring systems in smart environments are becoming a viable alternative to traditional healthcare solutions. The ongoing “Non-invasive monitoring and health assessment of the elderly in a smart environment (RO-SmartAgeing)” project aims to demonstrate that the existence of complete and accurate information is critical for assessing the health condition of the seniors, improving wellbeing and quality of life in relation to health. The researches performed inside the project aim to highlight how the management of IoHT devices connected to the RO-SmartAgeing platform in a secure way by using a role-based access control system, can allow the physicians to provide health services at a high level of efficiency and accessibility, which were previously only available in hospitals. The project aims to identify deficient aspects in the provision of health services tailored to a senior patient’s specificity and to offer a more comprehensive perspective of proactive and preventive medical acts.

Keywords: Health management, Internet of Health Things, remote monitoring, senior patient.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 584

Authors: Alireza Azimi Sani , Shahram Chaharmahalie

Abstract:

Internal controls of accounting are an essential business function for a growth-oriented organization, and include the elements of risk assessment, information communications and even employees' roles and responsibilities. Internal controls of accounting systems are designed to protect a company from fraud, abuse and inaccurate data recording and help organizations keep track of essential financial activities. Internal controls of accounting provide a streamlined solution for organizing all accounting procedures and ensuring that the accounting cycle is completed consistently and successfully. Implementing a formal Accounting Procedures Manual for the organization allows the financial department to facilitate several processes and maintain rigorous standards. Internal controls also allow organizations to keep detailed records, manage and organize important financial transactions and set a high standard for the organization's financial management structure and protocols. A well-implemented system also reduces the risk of accounting errors and abuse. A well-implemented controls system allows a company's financial managers to regulate and streamline all functions of the accounting department. Internal controls of accounting can be set up for every area to track deposits, monitor check handling, keep track of creditor accounts, and even assess budgets and financial statements on an ongoing basis. Setting up an effective accounting system to monitor accounting reports, analyze records and protect sensitive financial information also can help a company set clear goals and make accurate projections. Creating efficient accounting processes allows an organization to set specific policies and protocols on accounting procedures, and reach its financial objectives on a regular basis. Internal accounting controls can help keep track of such areas as cash-receipt recording, payroll management, appropriate recording of grants and gifts, cash disbursements by authorized personnel, and the recording of assets. These systems also can take into account any government regulations and requirements for financial reporting.

Keywords: Internal controls, risk assessment, financial management.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1972

Authors: Sachin Kumar, Vasilis Sotiris, Michael Pecht

Abstract:

With increasing complexity in electronic systems there is a need for system level anomaly detection and fault isolation. Anomaly detection based on vector similarity to a training set is used in this paper through two approaches, one the preserves the original information, Mahalanobis Distance (MD), and the other that compresses the data into its principal components, Projection Pursuit Analysis. These methods have been used to detect deviations in system performance from normal operation and for critical parameter isolation in multivariate environments. The study evaluates the detection capability of each approach on a set of test data with known faults against a baseline set of data representative of such “healthy" systems.

Keywords: Mahalanobis distance, Principle components, Projection pursuit, Health assessment, Anomaly.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1636

Authors: D. Bąk-Grabowska, K. Grzesik, A. Iwanicka, A. Jagoda

Abstract:

The process of human resources management in the structures of corporate groups demonstrates certain specificity, resulting from the division of decision-making and executive competencies, which occurs within these structures between a parent company and its subsidiaries. The subprocess of employee assessment is considered crucial, since it provides information for the implementation of personnel function. The empirical studies conducted in corporate groups, within which at least one company is located in Poland, confirmed the critical significance of employee assessment systems in the process of human resources management in corporate groups. Parent companies, most often, retain their decision-making authority within the framework of the discussed process and introduce uniform employee assessment and personnel controlling systems to subsidiary companies. However, the instruments for employee assessment applied in corporate groups do not present such specificity.

Keywords: Corporate groups, employee periodical assessment system, holding, human resources management.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1420

Authors: Do Hyeung Kim, Dae Hee Seo, Byung Doo Kim, Byung Gil Lee

Abstract:

As many recent researches being implemented in aviation and maritime aspects, strong doubts have been raised concerning the reliability of the estimation of collision risk. It is shown that using position and velocity of objects can lead to imprecise results. In this paper, therefore, a new approach to the estimation of collision risks using pose and shape of objects is proposed. Simulation results are presented validating the accuracy of the new criterion to adapt to collision risk algorithm based on fuzzy logic.

Keywords: Collision risk, Pose and shape, Fuzzy logic.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1861

Authors: Francesco Venuti, Simona Alfiero

Abstract:

The aim of this paper is to develop an empirical research on the nature and consequences of corporate governance on Eurozone Insurance Industry risk taking attitude. More particularly, we analyzed the effect of public ownership on risk taking with respect to privately held Insurance Companies. We also analyzed the effects on risk taking attitude of different degrees of ownership concentration, directors compensation, and the dimension/diversity of the Board of Directors. Our results provide quite strong evidence that, coherently with the Agency Theory, publicly traded insurance companies with more concentrated ownership are less risky than the corresponding privately held.

Keywords: Agency theory, corporate governance, insurance companies, risk taking.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2814

Authors: Efat Lali Dastjerdi, Hassan Sadeghi Naeini, Hadi Sanjari

Abstract:

One of the important steps in a safety and risk management system is the economical evaluation of occupational accident and diseases costs in order to decrease accidents from reoccurring in the workplace. This study proposed a plausible method for calculating occupational accident costs and illnesses in work place. This method design for cost estimation takes into account both the personnel, organizational level as well as the community level especially intended for an Iranian work place. The research indicates that a using systematic method for calculating costs which also provides risk evaluation can help managers to plan correctly the investment in health and safety measures. Using this method is that not only is it comprehensive, easy and practical and could be applied in practice by a manager within a short period of time but it also shows the importance of accident costs as well as calculates the real cost of an accident and illnesses.

Keywords: ost calculating model, Economics of health and Safety.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2169

Authors: Dongdong Zhang, Deran Zhang

Abstract:

In this paper, a Markovian risk model with two-type claims is considered. In such a risk model, the occurrences of the two type claims are described by two point processes {Ni(t), t ¸ 0}, i = 1, 2, where {Ni(t), t ¸ 0} is the number of jumps during the interval (0, t] for the Markov jump process {Xi(t), t ¸ 0} . The ruin probability ª(u) of a company facing such a risk model is mainly discussed. An integral equation satisfied by the ruin probability ª(u) is obtained and the bounds for the convergence rate of the ruin probability ª(u) are given by using key-renewal theorem.

Keywords: Risk model, ruin probability, Markov jump process, integral equation.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1319

Authors: Ali Serhan Koyuncugil, Nermin Ozgulbas

Abstract:

In this paper, a data mining model to SMEs for detecting financial and operational risk indicators by data mining is presenting. The identification of the risk factors by clarifying the relationship between the variables defines the discovery of knowledge from the financial and operational variables. Automatic and estimation oriented information discovery process coincides the definition of data mining. During the formation of model; an easy to understand, easy to interpret and easy to apply utilitarian model that is far from the requirement of theoretical background is targeted by the discovery of the implicit relationships between the data and the identification of effect level of every factor. In addition, this paper is based on a project which was funded by The Scientific and Technological Research Council of Turkey (TUBITAK).

Keywords: Risk Management, Financial Risk, Operational Risk, Financial Early Warning System, Data Mining, CHAID Decision Tree Algorithm, SMEs.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 3072

Authors: Ritsuko Kawasaki (Aiba), Takeshi Hiromatsu

Abstract:

Management is required to understand all information security risks within an organization, and to make decisions on which information security risks should be treated in what level by allocating how much amount of cost. However, such decision-making is not usually easy, because various measures for risk treatment must be selected with the suitable application levels. In addition, some measures may have objectives conflicting with each other. It also makes the selection difficult. Therefore, this paper provides a model which supports the selection of measures by applying multi-objective analysis to find an optimal solution. Additionally, a list of measures is also provided to make the selection easier and more effective without any leakage of measures.

Keywords: Information security risk treatment, Selection of risk measures, Risk acceptance and Multi-objective optimization.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2048

Authors: Shaneil Taylor

Abstract:

Gender-based violence is a reflection of the inequalities that are associated within a society between the men and women that affects the health, dignity, security and autonomy of its victims. There are various determinants that contribute to the health risk of young women who have experienced sexual violence, in countries that have a high prevalence rate for HIV. For instance, in South Africa, where the highest prevalence rate for HIV is among young women, their susceptibility to the virus has been increased by sexual violence and cultural inequalities. Therefore, this study is a review of literature that explores how gender-based violence increases the possibility for HIV/AIDS among young women in South Africa.

Keywords: Gender based violence, HIV/AIDS transmission, young women, Risky sexual behavior.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1727

Authors: A. Bey, T. Bensebaa, H. Benselem

Abstract:

This paper attempts to explore a new method to improve the teaching of algorithmic for beginners. It is well known that algorithmic is a difficult field to teach for teacher and complex to assimilate for learner. These difficulties are due to intrinsic characteristics of this field and to the manner that teachers (the majority) apprehend its bases. However, in a Technology Enhanced Learning environment (TEL), assessment, which is important and indispensable, is the most delicate phase to implement, for all problems that generate (noise...). Our objective registers in the confluence of these two axes. For this purpose, EASEL focused essentially to elaborate an assessment approach of algorithmic competences in a TEL environment. This approach consists in modeling an algorithmic solution according to basic and elementary operations which let learner draw his/her own step with all autonomy and independently to any programming language. This approach assures a trilateral assessment: summative, formative and diagnostic assessment.

Keywords: Algorithmic, assessment of competences, Technology Enhanced Learning (TEL).

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1396

Authors: Kottaridi Klimentia, Demopoulos Vasilis, Sidiropoulos Anastasios, Ihara Diego, Nikolaidis Vasileios, Antonopoulos Dimitrios

Abstract:

Aflatoxins are highly poisonous and carcinogenic compounds produced by species of the genus Aspergillus spp. that can infect a variety of agricultural foods, including dried figs. Biological and environmental factors, such as population, pathogenicity and aflatoxinogenic capacity of the strains, topography, soil and climate parameters of the fig orchards are believed to have a strong effect on aflatoxin levels. Existing methods for aflatoxin detection and measurement, such as high-performance liquid chromatography (HPLC), and enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA), can provide accurate results, but the procedures are usually time-consuming, sample-destructive and expensive. Predicting aflatoxin levels prior to crop harvest is useful for minimizing the health and financial impact of a contaminated crop. Consequently, there is interest in developing a tool that predicts aflatoxin levels based on topography and soil analysis data of fig orchards. This paper describes the development of a risk assessment tool for the contamination of aflatoxin on dried figs, based on the location and altitude of the fig orchards, the population of the fungus Aspergillus spp. in the soil, and soil parameters such as pH, saturation percentage (SP), electrical conductivity (EC), organic matter, particle size analysis (sand, silt, clay), concentration of the exchangeable cations (Ca, Mg, K, Na), extractable P and trace of elements (B, Fe, Mn, Zn and Cu), by employing machine learning methods. In particular, our proposed method integrates three machine learning techniques i.e., dimensionality reduction on the original dataset (Principal Component Analysis), metric learning (Mahalanobis Metric for Clustering) and K-nearest Neighbors learning algorithm (KNN), into an enhanced model, with mean performance equal to 85% by terms of the Pearson Correlation Coefficient (PCC) between observed and predicted values.

Keywords: aflatoxins, Aspergillus spp., dried figs, k-nearest neighbors, machine learning, prediction

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 569

Authors: Jayaletchumi T. Sambantha Moorthy, Suhaimi bin Ibrahim, Mohd Naz’ri Mahrin

Abstract:

Most quality models have defined usability as a significant factor that leads to improving product acceptability, increasing user satisfaction, improving product reliability, and also financially benefitting companies. Usability is also the best factor that balances both the technical and human aspects of a software product, which is an important aspect in defining quality during software development process. A usability risk consist risk factors that could impact the usability of a software product thereby contributing to negative user experiences and causing a possible software product failure. Hence, it is important to mitigate and reduce usability risks in the software development process itself. By managing possible usability risks in software development process, failure of software product could be reduced. Therefore, this research uses the Delphi method to identify mitigation plans for reducing potential usability risks. The Delphi method is conducted with seven experts from the field of risk management and software development.

Keywords: Usability, Usability Risk, Risk Management, Risk Mitigation, Delphi Method.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2179

Authors: Mohamed A. El-Kady, Badr M. Alshammari

Abstract:

In a recent major industry-supported research and development study, a novel framework was developed and applied for assessment of reliability and quality performance levels in reallife power systems with practical large-scale sizes. The new assessment methodology is based on three metaphors (dimensions) representing the relationship between available generation capacities and required demand levels. The paper shares the results of the successfully completed stud and describes the implementation of the new methodology on practical zones in the Saudi electricity system.

Keywords: Power systems; large-scale analysis, reliability; performance assessment, linear programming.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1807

Authors: Roman Graf, Sergiu Gordea, Heather M. Ryan

Abstract:

This paper presents an approach for easy creation and classification of institutional risk profiles supporting endangerment analysis of file formats. The main contribution of this work is the employment of data mining techniques to support set up of the most important risk factors. Subsequently, risk profiles employ risk factors classifier and associated configurations to support digital preservation experts with a semi-automatic estimation of endangerment group for file format risk profiles. Our goal is to make use of an expert knowledge base, accuired through a digital preservation survey in order to detect preservation risks for a particular institution. Another contribution is support for visualisation of risk factors for a requried dimension for analysis. Using the naive Bayes method, the decision support system recommends to an expert the matching risk profile group for the previously selected institutional risk profile. The proposed methods improve the visibility of risk factor values and the quality of a digital preservation process. The presented approach is designed to facilitate decision making for the preservation of digital content in libraries and archives using domain expert knowledge and values of file format risk profiles. To facilitate decision-making, the aggregated information about the risk factors is presented as a multidimensional vector. The goal is to visualise particular dimensions of this vector for analysis by an expert and to define its profile group. The sample risk profile calculation and the visualisation of some risk factor dimensions is presented in the evaluation section.

Keywords: linked open data, information integration, digital libraries, data mining.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 672

Authors: Hromada Martin

Abstract:

Risk analysis is considered as a fundamental aspect relevant for ensuring the level of critical infrastructure protection, where the critical infrastructure is seen as system, asset or its part which is important for maintaining the vital societal functions. Article actually discusses and analyzes the potential application of selected tools of information support for the implementation and within the framework of risk analysis and critical infrastructure protection. Use of the information in relation to their risk analysis can be viewed as a form of simplifying the analytical process. It is clear that these instruments (information support) for these purposes are countless, so they were selected representatives who have already been applied in the selected area of critical infrastructure, or they can be used. All presented fact were the basis for critical infrastructure resilience evaluation methodology development.

Keywords: Critical infrastructure, Protection, Resilience, Risk Analysis.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1572

Authors: Yuki Irie, Shota Ogawa, Hitomi Kosugi, Hiromitsu Shinozaki

Abstract:

Dropout rates in higher educational institutions pose significant challenges for both students and institutions, with poor mental health (MH) emerging as a key risk factor. Healthcare college students, including medical students, are particularly vulnerable to MH issues due to the demanding academic schedules they face. Poor mental health (MH) would be considered as a key risk factor for dropout from higher educational institutions that pose significant challenges for both students and institutions. And, inadequate food access (FA) has been related to poor MH. Given that targeted students may experience multiple risk factors for poor MH and vulnerable FA, the study aims to clarify the relationship between MH and FA to enhance student well-being. A cross-sectional design was used to explore the association between MH status and FA among 421 students (147 male, 274 female). Participants completed two questionnaires assessing MH and FA during winter 2022. The mean MH score was 6.7 ± 4.6, with higher scores indicating worse MH (max. score 27). While year-round FA showed no significant association with MH, FA during winter was significantly associated with MH (p = 0.01). Although car ownership did not directly impact MH, it was significantly associated with FA (p < 0.01), thus indirectly influencing MH. Our findings underscore the importance of FA in promoting MH, particularly during winter. Adopting a lifestyle that facilitates easier FA may be beneficial for MH, given its indirect association with MH outcomes. These insights emphasize the significance of addressing FA-related challenges to enhance student’s mental well-being.

Keywords: Mental health, food access, co-medical students, lifestyle.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 22

Authors: Monica Dudian , Raluca Andreea Popa

Abstract:

This article analyses the relationship between sovereign credit risk rating and gross domestic product for Central and Eastern European Countries for the period 1996 – 2010. In order to study the metioned relationship, we have used a numerical transformation of the risk qualification, thus: we marked 0 the lowest risk; then, we went on ascending, with a pace of 5, up to the score of 355 corresponding to the maximum risk. The used method of analysis is that of econometric modelling with EViews 7.0. programme. This software allows the analysis of data into a pannel type system, involving a mix of periods of time and series of data for different entities. The main conclusion of the work is the one confirming the negative relationship between the sovereign credit risk and the gross domestic product for the Central European and Eastern countries during the reviewed period.

Keywords: credit rating agencies, economic growth, gross domestic product, sovereign credit risk rating.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2380

Authors: Avelino Mondlane, Karin Hansson, Oliver Popov, Xavier Muianga

Abstract:

This paper discusses the role and importance of Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) and social Networking (SN) in the process of decision making for Flood Risk and Knowledge Management Strategies. We use Mozambique Red Cross (CVM) as the case study and further more we address scenarios for flood risk management strategies, using earlier warning and social networking and we argue that a sustainable desirable stage of life can be achieved by developing scenario strategic planning based on backcasting.

Keywords: ICT, KM, scenario planning, backcasting and flood risk management.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2877

Authors: A. G. Margaryan

Abstract:

Aims and Objectives: Assessment of health status and detection disorders of external respiration functions (ERF) during preventative medical examination among physicians of Armenia. Subjects and Methods: Overall, fifty-nine physicians (17 men and 42 women) were examined and spirometry was carried out. The average age of the physicians was 50 years old. The studies were conducted on the Micromedical MicroLab 3500 Spirometer. Results: 25.4% among 59 examined physicians are overweight; 22.0% of them suffer from obesity. Two physicians are currently smokers. About half of the examined physicians (50.8%) at the time of examination were diagnosed with some diseases and had different health-related problems (excluding the problems related to vision and hearing). FVC was 2.94±0.1, FEV1 – 2.64±0.1, PEF – 329.7±19.9, and FEV₁%/FVC – 89.7±1.3. Pathological changes of ERF are identified in 23 (39.0%) cases. 28.8% of physicians had first degree of restrictive disorders, 3.4% – first degree of combined obstructive/ restrictive disorders, 6.8% – second degree of combined obstructive/ restrictive disorders. Only three physicians with disorders of the ERF were diagnosed with chronic bronchitis and bronchial asthma. There were no statistically significant changes in ERF depending on the severity of obesity (P> 0.05). Conclusion: The study showed the prevalence of ERF among physicians, observing mainly mild and moderate changes in ERF parameters.

Keywords: Armenia, external respiration function, health status, physicians.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 991

Authors: Charawee Butbumrung

Abstract:

The purpose of this study is to evaluate the monetary worthiness of investment and the usefulness of risk estimation as a tool employed by a production section of an electronic factory. This study employed the case study of accidents occurring in production areas. Data is collected from interviews with six production of safety coordinators and collect the information from the relevant section. The study will present the ratio of benefits compared with the operation costs for investment. The result showed that it is worthwhile for investment with the safety measures. In addition, the organizations must be able to analyze the causes of accidents about the benefits of investing in protective working process. They also need to quickly provide the manual for the staff to learn how to protect themselves from accidents and how to use all of the safety equipment.

Keywords: Cost and benefit, enterprises in Thailand, investment in safety and health, risk estimation.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 732

Authors: Ali E. Abbas

Abstract:

This paper highlights some of the normative issues that might result by setting independent thresholds in risk analyses and particularly with safety regions. A second objective is to explain how such regions can be specified appropriately in a meaningful way. We start with a review of the importance of setting deterministic trade-offs among target requirements. We then show how to determine safety regions for risk analysis appropriately using utility functions.

Keywords: Decision analysis, thresholds, risk, reliability.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1052

Authors: MP. Mulaudzi, MA. Petersen, J. Mukuddem-Petersen , IM. Schoeman, B. de Waal, JM. Manale

Abstract:

This conference paper discusses a risk allocation problem for subprime investing banks involving investment in subprime structured mortgage products (SMPs) and Treasuries. In order to solve this problem, we develop a L'evy process-based model of jump diffusion-type for investment choice in subprime SMPs and Treasuries. This model incorporates subprime SMP losses for which credit default insurance in the form of credit default swaps (CDSs) can be purchased. In essence, we solve a mean swap-at-risk (SaR) optimization problem for investment which determines optimal allocation between SMPs and Treasuries subject to credit risk protection via CDSs. In this regard, SaR is indicative of how much protection investors must purchase from swap protection sellers in order to cover possible losses from SMP default. Here, SaR is defined in terms of value-at-risk (VaR). Finally, we provide an analysis of the aforementioned optimization problem and its connections with the subprime mortgage crisis (SMC).

Keywords: Investors; Jump Diffusion Process, Structured Mortgage Products, Treasuries, Credit Risk, Credit Default Swaps, Tranching Risk, Counterparty Risk, Value-at-Risk, Swaps-at-Risk, Subprime Mortgage Crisis.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1686

Authors: Gabriela-Andreea Despescu, Mădălina-Elena Mavrodin, Gheorghe Lăzăroiu, Florin Adrian Grădinaru

Abstract:

The purpose of this paper is to contribute to the enhancement of a hydroelectric plant protection by coordinating protection measures / existing security and introducing new measures under a risk management process. In addition, plan identifies key critical elements of a hydroelectric plant, from its level vulnerabilities and threats it is subjected to in order to achieve the necessary protection measures to reduce the level of risk.

Keywords: Critical infrastructure, risk analysis, critical infrastructure protection, vulnerability, risk management, turbine, Impact analysis.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1525

Authors: Hasimah Sapiri, Anton Abdulbasah Kamil, Razman Mat Tahar, Hanafi Tumin

Abstract:

Salary risk and demographic risk have been identified as main risks in analyzing pension expenditure particularly in Defined Benefit pension plan. Therefore, public pension plan in Malaysia is studied to analyze pension expenditure due to salary and demographic risk. Through the literature review and interview session with several officers in public sector, factors affecting pension expenditure are determined. Then, the inter-relationships between these factors are analyzed through causal loop diagram. The System Dynamics model is later developed using iThink software to show how demographic and salary changes affect the pension expenditure. Then, by using actual data, the impact of different policy scenarios on pension expenditure is analyzed. It is shown that dynamics simulation model of pension expenditure is useful to evaluate the impact of changes and policy decisions on risk particularly involving demographic and salary risk.

Keywords: Demographic and Salary risk, Pension Expenditure, Public Policy, System Dynamics.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2658

Authors: R. A. Temah, L. A. Nkengla-Asi

Abstract:

Planning for future disasters sets the stage for a variety of activities that may trigger multiple recurring operations and expose the community to opportunities to minimize risks. Local communities are increasingly embracing the necessity for planning based on local risks, but are also significantly challenged to effectively plan and response to disasters. This research examines basic risk-based disaster planning model and compares it with advanced risk-based planning that introduces the identification and alignment of varieties of local capabilities within and out of the local community that can be pivotal to facilitate the management of local risks and cascading effects prior to a disaster. A critical review shows that the identification and alignment of capabilities can potentially enhance risk-based disaster planning. A tailored holistic approach to risk based disaster planning is pivotal to enhance collective action and a reduction in disaster collective cost.

Keywords: Capabilities, disaster planning, hazards, local community, risk-based.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1015

Authors: Ya-Fen Lee, Yun-Yao Chi

Abstract:

The study aims to explore the relationship between risk perception of rockfall and revisit intention using a Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) analysis. A total of 573 valid questionnaires are collected from travelers to Taroko National Park, Taiwan. The findings show the majority of travelers have the medium perception of rockfall risk, and are willing to revisit the Taroko National Park. The revisit intention to Taroko National Park is influenced by hazardous preferences, willingness-to-pay, obstruction and attraction. The risk perception has an indirect effect on revisit intention through influencing willingness-to-pay. The study results can be a reference for mitigation the rockfall disaster.

Keywords: Risk perception, rockfall, revisit intention, structural equation modeling.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2102