Search results for: granger causality.

Authors: S. Noor, M. W. Siddiqi

Abstract:

This study examines causal link between energy use and economic growth for five South Asian countries over period 1971-2006. Panel cointegration, ECM and FMOLS are applied for short and long run estimates. In short run unidirectional causality from per capita GDP to per capita energy consumption is found, but not vice versa. In long run one percent increase in per capita energy consumption tend to decrease 0.13 percent per capita GDP. i.e. Energy use discourage economic growth. This short and long run relationship indicate energy shortage crisis in South Asia due to increased energy use coupled with insufficient energy supply. Beside this long run estimated coefficient of error term suggest that short term adjustment to equilibrium are driven by adjustment back to long run equilibrium. Moreover, per capita energy consumption is responsive to adjustment back to equilibrium and it takes 59 years approximately. It specifies long run feedback between both variables.

Keywords: Energy consumption, Income, Panel co-integration, Causality.

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Authors: Chimaobi V. Okolo, Kenneth A. Okpala, Johnbull S. Ogboi

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A teeming set of doctors that graduated from various universities within and outside Nigeria with the hope of practicing in the country, has their hope shattered because of poor financing, lack of medical equipments and a very weak healthcare systems. Such hydra headed challenges, allows room for quackery which increasingly contributes to the cause of mortality in Nigeria. With a view of reversing the challenges of healthcare delivery and financing in Nigeria, African Health Market for Equity (AHME), a project funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates foundation [With contribution from Department For International Development (DFID)] and currently implemented in three African Countries (Nigeria, Kenya and Ghana) over a Five (5) year period supports the healthcare sector via Medical credit fund (MCF). The study examines the impact of credit policy and medical credit funding on Nigerian health market. Ordinary least square analysis, correlation and granger causality tests were employed to measure the extent to which the Nigerian healthcare market has been influenced. Medical credit fund significantly and positively influenced average monthly turnover of private healthcare providers and Commercial bank’s lending rate had a weak relationship with access to credit/approved loans (13.46%). The programme has so far made 13.91% progress, which is very poor, considering the minimum targeted private health care providers (437.6) and expected number of loan approvals (180.4) for the two years. Medical credit policy in Nigeria should be revised to include private healthcare providers in rural area for more positive impact and increased returns. Good brand advert and sensitization of the programme to stakeholders and health pressure group, and an extension of the programme beyond five years is necessary to better address the issues raised in the study.

Keywords: Credit, health market, medical credit facility, policy.

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Authors: Amir Hossein Ghaffari Nejad, Forouhar Ferdowsi, Reza Mashhadi

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In the interest-free banking system of Iran, the savings of society are in the form of bank deposits, and banks using the Islamic contracts, allocate the resources to applicants for obtaining facilities and credit. In the meantime, the central bank, with the aim of introducing monetary policy, determines the maximum interest rate on bank deposits in terms of macroeconomic requirements. But in recent years, the country's economic constraints with the stagflation and the consequence of the institutional weaknesses of the financial market of Iran have resulted in massive disturbances in the balance sheet of the banking system, resulting in a period of mismatch maturity in the banks' assets and liabilities and the implementation of a Ponzi game. This issue caused determination of the interest rate in long-term bank deposit contracts to be associated with non-observance of the maximum rate set by the central bank. The result of this condition was in the allocation of new sources of equipment to meet past commitments towards the old depositors and, as a result, a significant part of the supply of equipment was leaked out of the facilitating cycle and credit crunch emerged. The purpose of this study is to identify the most important factors affecting the occurrence of non-confirmatory financial banking behavior using data from 19 public and private banks of Iran. For this purpose, the causes of this non-confirmatory behavior of banks have been investigated using the panel vector autoregression method (PVAR) for the period of 2007-2015. Granger's causality test results suggest that the return of parallel markets for bank deposits, non-performing loans and the high share of the ratio of facilities to banks' deposits are all a cause of the formation of non-confirmatory behavior. Also, according to the results of impulse response functions and variance decomposition, NPL and the ratio of facilities to deposits have the highest long-term effect and also have a high contribution to explaining the changes in banks' non-confirmatory behavior in determining the interest rate on deposits.

Keywords: Non-conformity behavior, Ponzi game, panel vector autoregression, nonperforming loans.

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Authors: Gilberto Gonzalez-A, Octavio Barriga

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A bond graph model of a hydroelectric plant is proposed. In order to analyze the system some structural properties of a bond graph are used. The structural controllability of the hydroelctric plant is described. Also, the steady state of the state variables applying the bond graph in a derivative causality assignment is obtained. Finally, simulation results of the system are shown.

Keywords: Bond graph, hydraulic plant, steady state.

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Authors: Gilberto Gonzalez-A, Jorge Madrigal

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The steady state response of bond graphs representing passive and active suspension is presented. A bond graph with preferred derivative causality assignment to get the steady state is proposed. A general junction structure of this bond graph is proposed. The proposed methodology to passive and active suspensions is applied.

Keywords: Bond graph, steady state, active suspension.

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Authors: Pavel Janak

Abstract:

This paper covers various aspects of the Internet film piracy. In order to successfully deal with this matter, it is needed to recognize and explain various motivational factors related to film piracy. Thus, this study proposes groups of economical, sociopsychological and other factors that could motivate individuals to engage in pirate activities. The paper also studies the interactions between downloaders and uploaders and offers the causality of the motivational factors and its effects on the film industry. Moreover, the study also focuses on proposed scheme of relations of downloading movies and the possible effect on box office revenues.

Keywords: Download, Film piracy, Internet, Upload

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Authors: Constantin Z. Leshan

Abstract:

Hole Vacuum theory is based on discontinuous spacetime that contains vacuum holes. Vacuum holes can explain gravitation, some laws of quantum mechanics and allow teleportation of matter. All massive bodies emit a flux of holes which curve the spacetime; if we increase the concentration of holes, it leads to length contraction and time dilation because the holes do not have the properties of extension and duration. In the limited case when space consists of holes only, the distance between every two points is equal to zero and time stops - outside of the Universe, the extension and duration properties do not exist. For this reason, the vacuum hole is the only particle in physics capable of describing gravitation using its own properties only. All microscopic particles must 'jump' continually and 'vibrate' due to the appearance of holes (impassable microscopic 'walls' in space), and it is the cause of the quantum behavior. Vacuum holes can explain the entanglement, non-locality, wave properties of matter, tunneling, uncertainty principle and so on. Particles do not have trajectories because spacetime is discontinuous and has impassable microscopic 'walls' due to the simple mechanical motion is impossible at small scale distances; it is impossible to 'trace' a straight line in the discontinuous spacetime because it contains the impassable holes. Spacetime 'boils' continually due to the appearance of the vacuum holes. For teleportation to be possible, we must send a body outside of the Universe by enveloping it with a closed surface consisting of vacuum holes. Since a material body cannot exist outside of the Universe, it reappears instantaneously in a random point of the Universe. Since a body disappears in one volume and reappears in another random volume without traversing the physical space between them, such a transportation method can be called teleportation (or Hole Teleportation). It is shown that Hole Teleportation does not violate causality and special relativity due to its random nature and other properties. Although Hole Teleportation has a random nature, it can be used for colonization of extrasolar planets by the help of the method called 'random jumps': after a large number of random teleportation jumps, there is a probability that the spaceship may appear near a habitable planet. We can create vacuum holes experimentally using the method proposed by Descartes: we must remove a body from the vessel without permitting another body to occupy this volume.

Keywords: Border of the universe, causality violation, perfect isolation, quantum jumps.

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Authors: Morteza Raei Dehaghi, Mojtaba Molaahmadi, Seyed Mohammad Mirhashemi

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This study aimed to explore the relationship between energy consumption and value-added in Iran’s industry sector during the time period 1973-2011. Annual data related to energy consumption and value added in the industry sector were used. The results of the study revealed a positive relationship between energy consumption and value-added of the industry sector. Similarly, the results showed that there is one-way causality between energy consumption and value-added in the industry sector.

Keywords: Energy consumption, economic growth, industry sector.

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Authors: Ahmet Ay, Hakan Acet, Ceyhun Can Özcan

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Economic freedoms, most emphasized issue in the recent years, are considered to affect economic growth and performance via institutional structure. In this context, a model that includes Turkey and Middle East Countries, and where the effects of economic freedom on growth are examined, was formed. For the groups of countries determined, in the study carried out by using the dataset belonging the period of 2004 - 2009, between economic freedoms and growth, a negative relationship was observed as group. In the sense of individual effects, it was identified that there was a positive relationship in terms of some Middle East Countries and Turkey.

Keywords: Economic Freedoms, Economic Growth, Freedoms.

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Authors: Junseok Ham, Chansun Jung, Junhyung Park, Jihye Ryeo, Ilju Ko

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It is hard to express emotion through only speech when we watch a character in a movie or a play because we cannot estimate the size, kind, and quantity of emotion. So this paper proposes an artificial emotion model for visualizing current emotion with color and location in emotion model. The artificial emotion model is designed considering causality of generated emotion, difference of personality, difference of continual emotional stimulus, and co-relation of various emotions. This paper supposed the Emotion Field for visualizing current emotion with location, and current emotion is expressed by location and color in the Emotion Field. For visualizing changes within current emotion, the artificial emotion model is adjusted to characters in Hamlet.

Keywords: Emotion, Artificial Emotion, Visualizing, EmotionModel.

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Authors: Alicia Y. C. Tang, Rukaini Hj. Abdullah, Sharifuddin M. Zain

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This paper discusses the development of a qualitative simulator (abbreviated QRiOM) for predicting the behaviour of organic chemical reactions. The simulation technique is based on the qualitative process theory (QPT) ontology. The modelling constructs of QPT embody notions of causality which can be used to explain the behaviour of a chemical system. The major theme of this work is that, in a qualitative simulation environment, students are able to articulate his/her knowledge through the inspection of explanations generated by software. The implementation languages are Java and Prolog. The software produces explanation in various forms that stresses on the causal theories in the chemical system which can be effectively used to support learning.

Keywords: Chemical reactions, explanation, qualitative processtheory, simulation

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Authors: M. Lloret-Climent, J. Nescolarde-Selva

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The aim of this paper is to propose a mathematical model to determine invariant sets, set covering, orbits and, in particular, attractors in the set of tourism variables. Analysis was carried out based on a pre-designed algorithm and applying our interpretation of chaos theory developed in the context of General Systems Theory. This article sets out the causal relationships associated with tourist flows in order to enable the formulation of appropriate strategies. Our results can be applied to numerous cases. For example, in the analysis of tourist flows, these findings can be used to determine whether the behaviour of certain groups affects that of other groups and to analyse tourist behaviour in terms of the most relevant variables. Unlike statistical analyses that merely provide information on current data, our method uses orbit analysis to forecast, if attractors are found, the behaviour of tourist variables in the immediate future.

Keywords: Attractor, invariant set, orbits, tourist variables.

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Authors: Esra E. Aleisa, Li Lin

Abstract:

Complex engineering design problems consist of numerous factors of varying criticalities. Considering fundamental features of design and inferior details alike will result in an extensive waste of time and effort. Design parameters should be introduced gradually as appropriate based on their significance relevant to the problem context. This motivates the representation of design parameters at multiple levels of an abstraction hierarchy. However, developing abstraction hierarchies is an area that is not well understood. Our research proposes a novel hierarchical abstraction methodology to plan effective engineering designs and processes. It provides a theoretically sound foundation to represent, abstract and stratify engineering design parameters and tasks according to causality and criticality. The methodology creates abstraction hierarchies in a recursive and bottom-up approach that guarantees no backtracking across any of the abstraction levels. The methodology consists of three main phases, representation, abstraction, and layering to multiple hierarchical levels. The effectiveness of the developed methodology is demonstrated by a design problem.

Keywords: Hierarchies, Abstraction, Loop-free, Engineering Design

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Authors: Rania Alshikhe, Vinita Jindal

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Digital innovation has played a crucial role in managing smart transportation. For this, big trajectory data collected from trav-eling vehicles, such as taxis through installed global positioning sys-tem (GPS)-enabled devices can be utilized. It offers an unprecedented opportunity to trace the movements of vehicles in fine spatiotemporal granularity. This paper aims to explore big trajectory data to measure the travel efficiency of road networks using the proposed statistical travel efficiency measure (STEM) across an entire city. Further, it identifies the cause of low travel efficiency by proposed least square approximation network-based causality exploration (LANCE). Finally, the resulting data analysis reveals the causes of low travel efficiency, along with the road segments that need to be optimized to improve the traffic conditions and thus minimize the average travel time from given point A to point B in the road network. Obtained results show that our proposed approach outperforms the baseline algorithms for measuring the travel efficiency of the road network.

Keywords: GPS trajectory, road network, taxi trips, digital map, big data, STEM, LANCE

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Authors: Kehinde Damilola Ilesanmi, Dev Datt Tewari

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South Africa is in its post-industrial era moving from the primary and secondary sector to the tertiary sector. The study investigated the impact of the disaggregated energy consumption (coal, oil, and electricity) on the primary, secondary and tertiary sectors of the economy between 1980 and 2012 in South Africa. Using vector error correction model, it was established that South Africa is an energy dependent economy, and that energy (especially electricity and oil) is a limiting factor of growth. This implies that implementation of energy conservation policies may hamper economic growth. Output growth is significantly outpacing energy supply, which has necessitated load shedding. To meet up the excess energy demand, there is a need to increase the generating capacity which will necessitate increased investment in the electricity sector as well as strategic steps to increase oil production. There is also need to explore more renewable energy sources, in order to meet the growing energy demand without compromising growth and environmental sustainability. Policy makers should also pursue energy efficiency policies especially at sectoral level of the economy.

Keywords: Causality, economic growth, energy consumption, hypothesis, sectoral output.

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Authors: Sourabh Jain, Sukhvir Singh Jain, Gaurav V. Jain

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Intelligent Transportation System is an integrated application of communication, control and monitoring and display process technologies for developing a user–friendly transportation system for urban areas in developing countries. In fact, the development of a country and the progress of its transportation system are complementary to each other. Urban traffic has been growing vigorously due to population growth as well as escalation of vehicle ownership causing congestion, delays, pollution, accidents, high-energy consumption and low productivity of resources. The development and management of urban transport in developing countries like India however, is at tryout stage with very few accumulations. Under the umbrella of ITS, urban corridor management strategy have proven to be one of the most successful system in accomplishing these objectives. The present study interprets and figures out the performance of the 27.4 km long Urban Bus route having six intersections, five flyovers and 29 bus stops that covers significant area of the city by causality analysis. Performance interpretations incorporate Passenger Boarding and Alighting, Dwell time, Distance between Bus Stops and Total trip time taken by bus on selected urban route.

Keywords: Congestion, Dwell time, delay, passengers boarding alighting, travel time.

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Authors: Mutuku Muvengei, John Kihiu

Abstract:

In this paper, a bond graph dynamic model for a valvecontrolled hydraulic cylinder has been developed. A simplified bond graph model of the inter-actuator interactions in a multi-cylinder hydraulic system has also been presented. The overall bond graph model of a valve-controlled hydraulic cylinder was developed by combining the bond graph sub-models of the pump, spool valve and the actuator using junction structures. Causality was then assigned in order to obtain a computational model which could be simulated. The causal bond graph model of the hydraulic cylinder was verified by comparing the open loop state responses to those of an ODE model which had been developed in literature based on the same assumptions. The results were found to correlate very well both in the shape of the curves, magnitude and the response times, thus indicating that the developed model represents the hydraulic dynamics of a valve-controlled cylinder. A simplified model for interactuator interaction was presented by connecting an effort source with constant pump pressure to the zero-junction from which the cylinders in a multi-cylinder system are supplied with a constant pressure from the pump. On simulating the state responses of the developed model under different situations of cylinder operations, indicated that such a simple model can be used to predict the inter-actuator interactions.

Keywords: Bond graphs, Inter-actuator interactions, Valvecontrolledhydraulic cylinder.

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Authors: Mosses E. Lufuke, Lorna M. Kamau

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This paper attempted to assess whether the size of the regional economic bloc has an impact to the flow of trade to a particular country. Two different sized blocs (COMESA and EAC) and one country (Tanzania) have been used as the point of references. Using the results from of the analyses, the paper also was anticipated to establish whether it was rational for Tanzania to withdraw its membership from COMESA (the larger bloc) to join EAC (the small one). Gravity model has been used to estimate the relationship between the variables, from which the bilateral trade flows between Tanzania and the eighteen member countries of the two blocs (COMESA and EAC) was employed for the time between 2000 and 2013. In the model, the dummy variable for regional bloc (bloc) at which the Tanzania trade partner countries belong are also added to the model to understand which trade bloc exhibit higher trade flow with Tanzania. From the findings, it was noted that over the period of study (2000-2013) Tanzania acknowledged more than 257% of trade volume in EAC than in COMESA. Conclusive, it was noted that the flow of trade is explained by many other variables apart from the size of regional bloc; and that the size by itself offer insufficient evidence in causality relationship. The paper therefore remain neutral on such staggered switching decision since more analyses are required to establish the country’s trade flow, especially when if it had been in multiple membership of COMESA and EAC.

Keywords: Economic Bloc, Flow of Trade, Size of Bloc, Switching.

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Authors: Angela–M. Paleologou, Aphrodite Dellaporta

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Erroneous computer entry problems [here: 'e'errors] in hospital labs threaten the patients-–health carers- relationship, undermining the health system credibility. Are e-errors random, and do lab professionals make them accidentally, or may they be traced through meaningful determinants? Theories on internal causality of mistakes compel to seek specific causal ascriptions of hospital lab eerrors instead of accepting some inescapability. Undeniably, 'To Err is Human'. But in view of rapid global health organizational changes, e-errors are too expensive to lack in-depth considerations. Yet, that efunction might supposedly be entrenched in the health carers- job description remains under dispute – at least for Hellenic labs, where e-use falls behind generalized(able) appreciation and application. In this study: i) an empirical basis of a truly high annual cost of e-errors at about €498,000.00 per rural Hellenic hospital was established, hence interest in exploring the issue was sufficiently substantiated; ii) a sample of 270 lab-expert nurses, technicians and doctors were assessed on several personality, burnout and e-error measures, and iii) the hypothesis that the Hardiness vs Alienation personality construct disposition explains resistance vs proclivity to e-errors was tested and verified: Hardiness operates as a resilience source in the encounter of high pressures experienced in the hospital lab, whereas its 'opposite', i.e., Alienation, functions as a predictor, not only of making e-errors, but also of leading to burn-out. Implications for apt interventions are discussed.

Keywords: Hospital lab, personality hardiness/alienation, e-errors' cost, burnout.

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Authors: Pranee Suecharoen, Jaturat Kanpittaya

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Background: The incidence of adverse reactions to iodinated contrast media has risen. The dearth of reports on reactions to the administration of iso- and low-osmolar contrast media should be addressed. We, therefore, studied the profile of adverse reactions to iodinated contrast media; viz., (a) the body systems affected (b) causality, (c) severity, and (d) preventability. Objective: To study adverse reactions (causes and severity) to iodinated contrast media at Srinagarind Hospital. Method: Between March and July, 2015, 1,101 patients from the Department of Radiology were observed and interviewed for the occurrence of adverse reactions. The patients were classified per Naranjo’s algorithm and through use of an adverse reactions questionnaire. Results: A total of 105 cases (9.5%) reported adverse reactions (57% male; 43% female); among whom 2% were iso-osmolar vs. 98% low-osmolar. Diagnoses included hepatoma and cholangiocarcinoma (24.8%), colorectal cancer (9.5%), breast cancer (5.7%), cervical cancer (3.8%), lung cancer (2.9%), bone cancer (1.9%), and others (51.5%). Underlying diseases included hypertension and diabetes mellitus type 2. Mild, moderate, and severe adverse reactions accounted for 92, 5 and 3%, respectively. The respective groups of escalating symptoms included (a) mild urticaria, itching, rash, nausea, vomiting, dizziness, and headache; (b) moderate hypertension, hypotension, dyspnea, tachycardia and bronchospasm; and (c) severe laryngeal edema, profound hypotension, and convulsions. All reactions could be anticipated per Naranjo’s algorithm. Conclusion: Mild to moderate adverse reactions to low-osmolar contrast media were most common and these occurred immediately after administration. For patient safety and better outcomes, improving the identification of patients likely to have an adverse reaction is essential.

Keywords: Adverse reactions, contrast media, computed tomography, iodinated contrast agents.

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Authors: Ana Pauna

Abstract:

The Expert Witness Testimony in the Battered Woman Syndrome Expert witness testimony (EWT) is a kind of information given by an expert specialized in the field (here in BWS) to the jury in order to help the court better understand the case. EWT does not always work in favor of the battered women. Two main decision-making models are discussed in the paper: the Mathematical model and the Explanation model. In the first model, the jurors calculate ″the importance and strength of each piece of evidence″ whereas in the second model they try to integrate the EWT with the evidence and create a coherent story that would describe the crime. The jury often misunderstands and misjudges battered women for their action (or in this case inaction). They assume that these women are masochists and accept being mistreated for if a man abuses a woman constantly, she should and could divorce him or simply leave at any time. The research in the domain found that indeed, expert witness testimony has a powerful influence on juror’s decisions thus its quality needs to be further explored. One of the important factors that need further studies is a bias called the dispositionist worldview (a belief that what happens to people is of their own doing). This kind of attributional bias represents a tendency to think that a person’s behavior is due to his or her disposition, even when the behavior is clearly attributed to the situation. Hypothesis The hypothesis of this paper is that if a juror has a dispositionist worldview then he or she will blame the rape victim for triggering the assault. The juror would therefore commit the fundamental attribution error and believe that the victim’s disposition caused the rape and not the situation she was in. Methods The subjects in the study were 500 randomly sampled undergraduate students from McGill, Concordia, Université de Montréal and UQAM. Dispositional Worldview was scored on the Dispositionist Worldview Questionnaire. After reading the Rape Scenarios, each student was asked to play the role of a juror and answer a questionnaire consisting of 7 questions about the responsibility, causality and fault of the victim. Results The results confirm the hypothesis which states that if a juror has a dispositionist worldview then he or she will blame the rape victim for triggering the assault. By doing so, the juror commits the fundamental attribution error because he will believe that the victim’s disposition, and not the constraints or opportunities of the situation, caused the rape scenario.

Keywords: bias, expert/witness testimony, attribution error, jury, rape myth

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Authors: Kaushik Chaudhuri

Abstract:

High Performance Work Systems (HPWS) generally give rise to positive impacts on employees by increasing their commitments in workplaces. While some argued this actually have considerable negative impacts on employees with increasing possibilities of imposing strains caused by stress and intensity of such work places. Do stressful workplaces hamper employee commitment? The author has tried to find the answer by exploring linkages between HPWS practices and its impact on employees in Japanese organizations. How negative outcomes like job intensity and workplaces and job stressors can influence different forms of employees- commitments which can be a hindrance to their performance. Design: A close ended questionnaire survey was conducted amongst 16 large, medium and small sized Japanese companies from diverse industries around Chiba, Saitama, and Ibaraki Prefectures and in Tokyo from the month of October 2008 to February 2009. Questionnaires were aimed to the non managerial employees- perceptions of HPWS practices, their behavior, working life experiences in their work places. A total of 227 samples are used for analysis in the study. Methods: Correlations, MANCOVA, SEM Path analysis using AMOS software are used for data analysis in this study. Findings: Average non-managerial perception of HPWS adoption is significantly but negatively correlated to both work place Stressors and Continuous commitment, but positively correlated to job Intensity, Affective, Occupational and Normative commitments in different workplaces at Japan. The path analysis by SEM shows significant indirect relationship between Stressors and employee Affective organizational commitment and Normative organizational commitments. Intensity also has a significant indirect effect on Occupational commitments. HPWS has an additive effect on all the outcomes variables. Limitations: The sample size in this study cannot be a representative to the entire population of non-managerial employees in Japan. There were no respondents from automobile, pharmaceuticals, finance industries. The duration of the survey coincided in a period when Japan as most of the other countries is under going recession. Biases could not be ruled out completely. We must take cautions in interpreting the results of studies as they cannot be generalized. And the path analysis cannot provide the complete causality of the inter linkages between the variables used in the study. Originality: There have been limited studies on linkages in HPWS adoptions and their impacts on employees- behaviors and commitments in Japanese workplaces. This study may provide some ingredients for further research in the fields of HRM policies and practices and their linkages on different forms of employees- commitments.

Keywords: HPWS, Job Intensity, Job and workplace Stressors, Continuous commitment, Affective commitment, Occupational commitment, Japan.

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Authors: N. Šarlija, S. Pfeifer, M. Jeger, A. Bilandžić

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Enterprise growth is generally considered as a key driver of competitiveness, employment, economic development and social inclusion. As such, it is perceived to be a highly desirable outcome of entrepreneurship for scholars and decision makers. The huge academic debate resulted in the multitude of theoretical frameworks focused on explaining growth stages, determinants and future prospects. It has been widely accepted that enterprise growth is most likely nonlinear, temporal and related to the variety of factors which reflect the individual, firm, organizational, industry or environmental determinants of growth. However, factors that affect growth are not easily captured, instruments to measure those factors are often arbitrary, causality between variables and growth is elusive, indicating that growth is not easily modeled. Furthermore, in line with heterogeneous nature of the growth phenomenon, there is a vast number of measurement constructs assessing growth which are used interchangeably. Differences among various growth measures, at conceptual as well as at operationalization level, can hinder theory development which emphasizes the need for more empirically robust studies. In line with these highlights, the main purpose of this paper is twofold. Firstly, to compare structure and performance of three growth prediction models based on the main growth measures: Revenues, employment and assets growth. Secondly, to explore the prospects of financial indicators, set as exact, visible, standardized and accessible variables, to serve as determinants of enterprise growth. Finally, to contribute to the understanding of the implications on research results and recommendations for growth caused by different growth measures. The models include a range of financial indicators as lag determinants of the enterprises’ performances during the 2008-2013, extracted from the national register of the financial statements of SMEs in Croatia. The design and testing stage of the modeling used the logistic regression procedures. Findings confirm that growth prediction models based on different measures of growth have different set of predictors. Moreover, the relationship between particular predictors and growth measure is inconsistent, namely the same predictor positively related to one growth measure may exert negative effect on a different growth measure. Overall, financial indicators alone can serve as good proxy of growth and yield adequate predictive power of the models. The paper sheds light on both methodology and conceptual framework of enterprise growth by using a range of variables which serve as a proxy for the multitude of internal and external determinants, but are unlike them, accessible, available, exact and free of perceptual nuances in building up the model. Selection of the growth measure seems to have significant impact on the implications and recommendations related to growth. Furthermore, the paper points out to potential pitfalls of measuring and predicting growth. Overall, the results and the implications of the study are relevant for advancing academic debates on growth-related methodology, and can contribute to evidence-based decisions of policy makers.

Keywords: Growth measurement constructs, logistic regression, prediction of growth potential, small and medium-sized enterprises.

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