Search results for: disease prediction.

Authors: N. A. Samat, S. H. Mohd Imam Ma’arof

Abstract:

Dengue disease is an infectious vector-borne viral disease that is commonly found in tropical and sub-tropical regions, especially in urban and semi-urban areas, around the world and including Malaysia. There is no currently available vaccine or chemotherapy for the prevention or treatment of dengue disease. Therefore prevention and treatment of the disease depend on vector surveillance and control measures. Disease risk mapping has been recognized as an important tool in the prevention and control strategies for diseases. The choice of statistical model used for relative risk estimation is important as a good model will subsequently produce a good disease risk map. Therefore, the aim of this study is to estimate the relative risk for dengue disease based initially on the most common statistic used in disease mapping called Standardized Morbidity Ratio (SMR) and one of the earliest applications of Bayesian methodology called Poisson-gamma model. This paper begins by providing a review of the SMR method, which we then apply to dengue data of Perak, Malaysia. We then fit an extension of the SMR method, which is the Poisson-gamma model. Both results are displayed and compared using graph, tables and maps. Results of the analysis shows that the latter method gives a better relative risk estimates compared with using the SMR. The Poisson-gamma model has been demonstrated can overcome the problem of SMR when there is no observed dengue cases in certain regions. However, covariate adjustment in this model is difficult and there is no possibility for allowing spatial correlation between risks in adjacent areas. The drawbacks of this model have motivated many researchers to propose other alternative methods for estimating the risk.

Keywords: Dengue disease, Disease mapping, Standardized Morbidity Ratio, Poisson-gamma model, Relative risk.

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Authors: K. Sreelakshmi, P. Ramakanthkumar

Abstract:

Predicting short term wind speed is essential in order to prevent systems in-action from the effects of strong winds. It also helps in using wind energy as an alternative source of energy, mainly for Electrical power generation. Wind speed prediction has applications in Military and civilian fields for air traffic control, rocket launch, ship navigation etc. The wind speed in near future depends on the values of other meteorological variables, such as atmospheric pressure, moisture content, humidity, rainfall etc. The values of these parameters are obtained from a nearest weather station and are used to train various forms of neural networks. The trained model of neural networks is validated using a similar set of data. The model is then used to predict the wind speed, using the same meteorological information. This paper reports an Artificial Neural Network model for short term wind speed prediction, which uses back propagation algorithm.

Keywords: Short term wind speed prediction, Neural networks, Back propagation.

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Authors: Fariba Esfandiary, Ghafoor Aghaie, Ali Dolati Mehr

Abstract:

Wheat prediction was carried out using different meteorological variables together with agro meteorological indices in Ardebil district for the years 2004-2005 & 2005–2006. On the basis of correlation coefficients, standard error of estimate as well as relative deviation of predicted yield from actual yield using different statistical models, the best subset of agro meteorological indices were selected including daily minimum temperature (Tmin), accumulated difference of maximum & minimum temperatures (TD), growing degree days (GDD), accumulated water vapor pressure deficit (VPD), sunshine hours (SH) & potential evapotranspiration (PET). Yield prediction was done two months in advance before harvesting time which was coincide with commencement of reproductive stage of wheat (5th of June). It revealed that in the final statistical models, 83% of wheat yield variability was accounted for variation in above agro meteorological indices.

Keywords: Wheat yields prediction, agro meteorological indices, statistical models

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Authors: Ersin Kaya, Bulent Oran, Ahmet Arslan

Abstract:

In this study, fuzzy rule-based classifier is used for the diagnosis of congenital heart disease. Congenital heart diseases are defined as structural or functional heart disease. Medical data sets were obtained from Pediatric Cardiology Department at Selcuk University, from years 2000 to 2003. Firstly, fuzzy rules were generated by using medical data. Then the weights of fuzzy rules were calculated. Two different reasoning methods as “weighted vote method" and “singles winner method" were used in this study. The results of fuzzy classifiers were compared.

Keywords: Congenital heart disease, Fuzzy rule-basedclassifiers, Classification

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Authors: Shogo Kato, Daisuke Okamoto, Satoko Tsuru, Yoshinori Iizuka, Ryoko Shimono

Abstract:

Healthcare safety has been perceived important. It is essential to prevent troubles in healthcare processes for healthcare safety. Trouble prevention is based on trouble prediction using accumulated knowledge on processes, troubles, and countermeasures. However, information on troubles has not been accumulated in hospitals in the appropriate structure, and it has not been utilized effectively to prevent troubles. In the previous study, however a detailed knowledge acquisition process for trouble prediction was proposed, the knowledgebase for countermeasures was not involved. In this paper, we aim to propose the structure of the knowledgebase for countermeasures, in the knowledge acquisition process for trouble prediction in healthcare process. We first design the structure of countermeasures and propose the knowledge representation form on countermeasures. Then, we evaluate the validity of the proposal, by applying it into an actual hospital.

Keywords: Trouble prevention, knowledge structure, structured knowledge, reusable knowledge.

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Authors: Vasco A. P. Cadavez, Fernando C. Monteiro

Abstract:

The objective of this study was to develop and compare alternative prediction equations of lean meat proportion (LMP) of lamb carcasses. Forty (40) male lambs, 22 of Churra Galega Bragançana Portuguese local breed and 18 of Suffolk breed were used. Lambs were slaughtered, and carcasses weighed approximately 30 min later in order to obtain hot carcass weight (HCW). After cooling at 4º C for 24-h a set of seventeen carcass measurements was recorded. The left side of carcasses was dissected into muscle, subcutaneous fat, inter-muscular fat, bone, and remainder (major blood vessels, ligaments, tendons, and thick connective tissue sheets associated with muscles), and the LMP was evaluated as the dissected muscle percentage. Prediction equations of LMP were developed, and fitting quality was evaluated through the coefficient of determination of estimation (R2 e) and standard error of estimate (SEE). Models validation was performed by k-fold crossvalidation and the coefficient of determination of prediction (R2 p) and standard error of prediction (SEP) were computed. The BT2 measurement was the best single predictor and accounted for 37.8% of the LMP variation with a SEP of 2.30%. The prediction of LMP of lamb carcasses can be based simple models, using as predictors the HCW and one fat thickness measurement.

Keywords: Bootstrap, Carcass, Lambs, Lean meat

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Authors: Shivakumar, G. S. Vijay, P. Srinivas Pai, B. R. Shrinivasa Rao

Abstract:

In the present study, RBF neural networks were used for predicting the performance and emission parameters of a biodiesel engine. Engine experiments were carried out in a 4 stroke diesel engine using blends of diesel and Honge methyl ester as the fuel. Performance parameters like BTE, BSEC, Tex and emissions from the engine were measured. These experimental results were used for ANN modeling. RBF center initialization was done by random selection and by using Clustered techniques. Network was trained by using fixed and varying widths for the RBF units. It was observed that RBF results were having a good agreement with the experimental results. Networks trained by using clustering technique gave better results than using random selection of centers in terms of reduced MRE and increased prediction accuracy. The average MRE for the performance parameters was 3.25% with the prediction accuracy of 98% and for emissions it was 10.4% with a prediction accuracy of 80%.

Keywords: Radial Basis Function networks, emissions, Performance parameters, Fuzzy c means.

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Authors: [email protected]

Abstract:

Breast cancer is one of the most common types in women. Early prediction of breast cancer helps physicians detect cancer in its early stages. Big cancer data need a very powerful tool to analyze and extract predictions. Machine learning and deep learning are two of the most efficient tools for predicting cancer based on textual data. In this study, we developed a fusion model of two machine learning and deep learning models. To obtain the final prediction, Long-Short Term Memory (LSTM), ensemble learning with hyper parameters optimization, and score-level fusion is used. Experiments are done on the Breast Cancer Surveillance Consortium (BCSC) dataset after balancing and grouping the class categories. Five different training scenarios are used, and the tests show that the designed fusion model improved the performance by 3.3% compared to the individual models.

Keywords: Machine learning, Deep learning, cancer prediction, breast cancer, LSTM, Score-Level Fusion.

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Authors: Chutimon Thitipornvanid, Siripun Sanguansintukul

Abstract:

Choosing the right metadata is a critical, as good information (metadata) attached to an image will facilitate its visibility from a pile of other images. The image-s value is enhanced not only by the quality of attached metadata but also by the technique of the search. This study proposes a technique that is simple but efficient to predict a single human image from a website using the basic image data and the embedded metadata of the image-s content appearing on web pages. The result is very encouraging with the prediction accuracy of 95%. This technique may become a great assist to librarians, researchers and many others for automatically and efficiently identifying a set of human images out of a greater set of images.

Keywords: Metadata, Prediction, Multi-layer perceptron, Human facial image, Image mining.

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Authors: K. Assis, K. P. Chong, A. S. Idris, C. M. Ho

Abstract:

Oil palm or Elaeis guineensis is considered as the golden crop in Malaysia. But oil palm industry in this country is now facing with the most devastating disease called as Ganoderma Basal Stem Rot disease. The objective of this paper is to analyze the economic loss due to this disease. There were three commercial oil palm sites selected for collecting the required data for economic analysis. Yield parameter used to measure the loss was the total weight of fresh fruit bunch in six months. The predictors include disease severity, change in disease severity, number of infected neighbor palms, age of palm, planting generation, topography, and first order interaction variables. The estimation model of yield loss was identified by using backward elimination based regression method. Diagnostic checking was conducted on the residual of the best yield loss model. The value of mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) was used to measure the forecast performance of the model. The best yield loss model was then used to estimate the economic loss by using the current monthly price of fresh fruit bunch at mill gate.

Keywords: Ganoderma, oil palm, regression model, yield loss, economic loss.

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Authors: Wenlong Liu, Yucheng Liu

Abstract:

This paper introduces the application of seismic wave method in earthquake prediction and early estimation. The advantages of the seismic wave method over the traditional earthquake prediction method are demonstrated. An example is presented in this study to show the accuracy and efficiency of using the seismic wave method in predicting a medium-sized earthquake swarm occurred in Wencheng, Zhejiang, China. By applying this method, correct predictions were made on the day after this earthquake swarm started and the day the maximum earthquake occurred, which provided scientific bases for governmental decision-making.

Keywords: earthquake prediction, earthquake swarm, seismicactivity method, seismic wave method, Wencheng earthquake

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Authors: Sadaf Sahar, Usman Qamar, Sadaf Ayaz

Abstract:

In the software development lifecycle, the quality prediction techniques hold a prime importance in order to minimize future design errors and expensive maintenance. There are many techniques proposed by various researchers, but with the increasing complexity of the software lifecycle model, it is crucial to develop a flexible system which can cater for the factors which in result have an impact on the quality of the end product. These factors include properties of the software development process and the product along with its operation conditions. In this paper, a neural network (perceptron) based software quality prediction technique is proposed. Using this technique, the stakeholders can predict the quality of the resulting software during the early phases of the lifecycle saving time and resources on future elimination of design errors and costly maintenance. This technique can be brought into practical use using successful training.

Keywords: Software quality, fuzzy logic, perceptron, prediction.

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Authors: Ilma Robo, Saimir Heta, Merilda Tarja, Sonila Kapaj, Eduart Kapaj, Geriona Lasku

Abstract:

The classification of periodontal diseases has changed significantly in favor of simplifying the protocol of diagnosis and periodontal treatment. This review study aims to highlight the latest publications in the new periodontal disease classification, talking about the most significant differences versus the old classification with the tendency to express the advantages or disadvantages of clinical application. The aim of the study also includes the growing tendency to link the way of classification of periodontal diseases with predetermined protocols of periodontal treatment of the diagnoses included in the classification. The new classification of periodontal diseases is rather comprehensive in its subdivisions, as the disease is viewed in its entirety, with the biological dimensions of the disease, the degree of aggravation and progression of the disease, in relation to risk factors, predisposition to patient susceptibility and impact of periodontal disease to the general health status of the patient.

Keywords: Periodontal diseases, clinical application, periodontal treatment, oral diagnosis.

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Authors: Li Kewen, Su Zhaoxin, Wang Xingmou, Zhu Jian Bing

Abstract:

Conventional reservoir prediction methods ar not sufficient to explore the implicit relation between seismic attributes, and thus data utilization is low. In order to improve the predictive classification accuracy of reservoir lithology, this paper proposes a deep learning lithology prediction method based on ResNet (Residual Neural Network) and SENet (Squeeze-and-Excitation Neural Network). The neural network model is built and trained by using seismic attribute data and lithology data of Shengli oilfield, and the nonlinear mapping relationship between seismic attribute and lithology marker is established. The experimental results show that this method can significantly improve the classification effect of reservoir lithology, and the classification accuracy is close to 70%. This study can effectively predict the lithology of undrilled area and provide support for exploration and development.

Keywords: Convolutional neural network, lithology, prediction of reservoir lithology, seismic attributes.

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Authors: Chunshien Li, Jhao-Wun Hu, Tai-Wei Chiang, Tsunghan Wu

Abstract:

Time series forecasting is an important and widely popular topic in the research of system modeling. This paper describes how to use the hybrid PSO-RLSE neuro-fuzzy learning approach to the problem of time series forecasting. The PSO algorithm is used to update the premise parameters of the proposed prediction system, and the RLSE is used to update the consequence parameters. Thanks to the hybrid learning (HL) approach for the neuro-fuzzy system, the prediction performance is excellent and the speed of learning convergence is much faster than other compared approaches. In the experiments, we use the well-known Mackey-Glass chaos time series. According to the experimental results, the prediction performance and accuracy in time series forecasting by the proposed approach is much better than other compared approaches, as shown in Table IV. Excellent prediction performance by the proposed approach has been observed.

Keywords: forecasting, hybrid learning (HL), Neuro-FuzzySystem (NFS), particle swarm optimization (PSO), recursiveleast-squares estimator (RLSE), time series

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Authors: Akram Khaleghei Ghosheh Balagh, Viliam Makis

Abstract:

In this paper, we investigate the residual life prediction problem for a partially observable system subject to two failure modes, namely a catastrophic failure and a failure due to the system degradation. The system is subject to condition monitoring and the degradation process is described by a hidden Markov model with unknown parameters. The parameter estimation procedure based on an EM algorithm is developed and the formulas for the conditional reliability function and the mean residual life are derived, illustrated by a numerical example.

Keywords: Partially observable system, hidden Markov model, competing risks, residual life prediction.

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Authors: Sung Ho Ha, Seong Hyeon Joo, Eun Kyung Kwon

Abstract:

Until recently, researchers have developed various tools and methodologies for effective clinical decision-making. Among those decisions, chest pain diseases have been one of important diagnostic issues especially in an emergency department. To improve the ability of physicians in diagnosis, many researchers have developed diagnosis intelligence by using machine learning and data mining. However, most of the conventional methodologies have been generally based on a single classifier for disease classification and prediction, which shows moderate performance. This study utilizes an ensemble strategy to combine multiple different classifiers to help physicians diagnose chest pain diseases more accurately than ever. Specifically the ensemble strategy is applied by using the integration of decision trees, neural networks, and support vector machines. The ensemble models are applied to real-world emergency data. This study shows that the performance of the ensemble models is superior to each of single classifiers.

Keywords: Diagnosis intelligence, ensemble approach, data mining, emergency department

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Authors: Wei-hua Ai, Wei Yan, Xiang Li

Abstract:

Data compression is used operationally to reduce bandwidth and storage requirements. An efficient method for achieving lossless weather radar data compression is presented. The characteristics of the data are taken into account and the optical linear prediction is used for the PPI images in the weather radar data in the proposed method. The next PPI image is identical to the current one and a dramatic reduction in source entropy is achieved by using the prediction algorithm. Some lossless compression methods are used to compress the predicted data. Experimental results show that for the weather radar data, the method proposed in this paper outperforms the other methods.

Keywords: Lossless compression, weather radar data, optical linear prediction, PPI image

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Authors: Jamalizadeh, M.R., Moghaddamnia, A., Piri, J., Arbabi, V., Homayounifar, M., Shahryari, A.

Abstract:

Dust storms are one of the most costly and destructive events in many desert regions. They can cause massive damages both in natural environments and human lives. This paper is aimed at presenting a preliminary study on dust storms, as a major natural hazard in arid and semi-arid regions. As a case study, dust storm events occurred in Zabol city located in Sistan Region of Iran was analyzed to diagnose and predict dust storms. The identification and prediction of dust storm events could have significant impacts on damages reduction. Present models for this purpose are complicated and not appropriate for many areas with poor-data environments. The present study explores Gamma test for identifying inputs of ANNs model, for dust storm prediction. Results indicate that more attempts must be carried out concerning dust storms identification and segregate between various dust storm types.

Keywords: Dust Storm, Gamma Test, Prediction, ANNs, Zabol.

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Authors: Indra Budi, Rizal Fathoni Aji, Agus Widodo

Abstract:

Prediction of future research topics by using time series analysis either statistical or machine learning has been conducted previously by several researchers. Several methods have been proposed to combine the forecasting results into single forecast. These methods use fixed combination of individual forecast to get the final forecast result. In this paper, quite different approach is employed to select the forecasting methods, in which every point to forecast is calculated by using the best methods used by similar validation dataset. The dataset used in the experiment is time series derived from research report in Garuda, which is an online sites belongs to the Ministry of Education in Indonesia, over the past 20 years. The experimental result demonstrates that the proposed method may perform better compared to the fix combination of predictors. In addition, based on the prediction result, we can forecast emerging research topics for the next few years.

Keywords: Combination, emerging topics, ensemble, forecasting, machine learning, prediction, research topics, similarity measure, time series.

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Authors: Brian A. Smith, Ronald W. McClendon, Gerrit Hoogenboom

Abstract:

The mitigation of crop loss due to damaging freezes requires accurate air temperature prediction models. Previous work established that the Ward-style artificial neural network (ANN) is a suitable tool for developing such models. The current research focused on developing ANN models with reduced average prediction error by increasing the number of distinct observations used in training, adding additional input terms that describe the date of an observation, increasing the duration of prior weather data included in each observation, and reexamining the number of hidden nodes used in the network. Models were created to predict air temperature at hourly intervals from one to 12 hours ahead. Each ANN model, consisting of a network architecture and set of associated parameters, was evaluated by instantiating and training 30 networks and calculating the mean absolute error (MAE) of the resulting networks for some set of input patterns. The inclusion of seasonal input terms, up to 24 hours of prior weather information, and a larger number of processing nodes were some of the improvements that reduced average prediction error compared to previous research across all horizons. For example, the four-hour MAE of 1.40°C was 0.20°C, or 12.5%, less than the previous model. Prediction MAEs eight and 12 hours ahead improved by 0.17°C and 0.16°C, respectively, improvements of 7.4% and 5.9% over the existing model at these horizons. Networks instantiating the same model but with different initial random weights often led to different prediction errors. These results strongly suggest that ANN model developers should consider instantiating and training multiple networks with different initial weights to establish preferred model parameters.

Keywords: Decision support systems, frost protection, fruit, time-series prediction, weather modeling

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Authors: Chang Su Woo, Hyun Sung Park

Abstract:

Useful lifetime evaluation of railpads were very important in design procedure to assure the safety and reliability. It is, therefore, necessary to establish a suitable criterion for the replacement period of rail pads. In this study, we performed properties and accelerated heat aging tests of rail pads considering degradation factors and all environmental conditions including operation, and then derived a lifetime prediction equation according to changes in hardness, thickness, and static spring constants in the Arrhenius plot to establish how to estimate the aging of rail pads. With the useful lifetime prediction equation, the lifetime of e-clip pads was 2.5 years when the change in hardness was 10% at 25°C; and that of f-clip pads was 1.7 years. When the change in thickness was 10%, the lifetime of e-clip pads and f-clip pads is 2.6 years respectively. The results obtained in this study to estimate the useful lifetime of rail pads for high speed trains can be used for determining the maintenance and replacement schedule for rail pads.

Keywords: Rail pads, accelerated test, Arrhenius plot, useful lifetime prediction.

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Authors: S. Wiriyarattanakun, A. Ruengsiriwatanakun, S. Noimanee

Abstract:

The drainage Estimating is an important factor in dam management. In this paper, we use fuzzy support vector regression (FSVR) to predict the drainage of the Sirikrit Dam at Uttaradit province, Thailand. The results show that the FSVR is a suitable method in drainage estimating.

Keywords: Drainage Estimation, Prediction.

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Authors: Anne-Lena Kampen, Øivind Kure

Abstract:

Machine learning (ML) can be implemented in Wireless Sensor Networks (WSNs) as a central solution or distributed solution where the ML is embedded in the nodes. Embedding improves privacy and may reduce prediction delay. In addition, the number of transmissions is reduced. However, quality factors such as prediction accuracy, fault detection efficiency and coordinated control of the overall system suffer. Here, we discuss and highlight the trade-offs that should be considered when choosing between embedding and centralized ML, especially for multihop networks. In addition, we present estimations that demonstrate the energy trade-offs between embedded and centralized ML. Although the total network energy consumption is lower with central prediction, it makes the network more prone for partitioning due to the high forwarding load on the one-hop nodes. Moreover, the continuous improvements in the number of operations per joule for embedded devices will move the energy balance toward embedded prediction.

Keywords: Central ML, embedded machine learning, energy consumption, local ML, Wireless Sensor Networks, WSN.

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Authors: Parvinder S. Sandhu, Sandeep Khimta, Kiranpreet Kaur

Abstract:

The prediction of Software quality during development life cycle of software project helps the development organization to make efficient use of available resource to produce the product of highest quality. “Whether a module is faulty or not" approach can be used to predict quality of a software module. There are numbers of software quality prediction models described in the literature based upon genetic algorithms, artificial neural network and other data mining algorithms. One of the promising aspects for quality prediction is based on clustering techniques. Most quality prediction models that are based on clustering techniques make use of K-means, Mixture-of-Guassians, Self-Organizing Map, Neural Gas and fuzzy K-means algorithm for prediction. In all these techniques a predefined structure is required that is number of neurons or clusters should be known before we start clustering process. But in case of Growing Neural Gas there is no need of predetermining the quantity of neurons and the topology of the structure to be used and it starts with a minimal neurons structure that is incremented during training until it reaches a maximum number user defined limits for clusters. Hence, in this work we have used Growing Neural Gas as underlying cluster algorithm that produces the initial set of labeled cluster from training data set and thereafter this set of clusters is used to predict the quality of test data set of software modules. The best testing results shows 80% accuracy in evaluating the quality of software modules. Hence, the proposed technique can be used by programmers in evaluating the quality of modules during software development.

Keywords: Growing Neural Gas, data clustering, fault prediction.

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Authors: Edwaldo R. B. Monteiro, Patricia D. M. Plentz, Edson R. De Pieri

Abstract:

Mobile robotics is gaining an increasingly important role in modern society. Several potentially dangerous or laborious tasks for human are assigned to mobile robots, which are increasingly capable. Many of these tasks need to be performed within a specified period, i.e, meet a deadline. Missing the deadline can result in financial and/or material losses. Mechanisms for predicting the missing of deadlines are fundamental because corrective actions can be taken to avoid or minimize the losses resulting from missing the deadline. In this work we propose a simple but reliable deadline missing prediction mechanism for mobile robots through the use of historical data and we use the Pioneer 3-DX robot for experiments and simulations, one of the most popular robots in academia.

Keywords: Deadline missing, historical data, mobile robots, prediction mechanism.

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Authors: Jiakai Li, Gursel Serpen, Steven Selman, Matt Franchetti, Mike Riesen, Cynthia Schneider

Abstract:

This paper presents the development of a Bayesian belief network classifier for prediction of graft status and survival period in renal transplantation using the patient profile information prior to the transplantation. The objective was to explore feasibility of developing a decision making tool for identifying the most suitable recipient among the candidate pool members. The dataset was compiled from the University of Toledo Medical Center Hospital patients as reported to the United Network Organ Sharing, and had 1228 patient records for the period covering 1987 through 2009. The Bayes net classifiers were developed using the Weka machine learning software workbench. Two separate classifiers were induced from the data set, one to predict the status of the graft as either failed or living, and a second classifier to predict the graft survival period. The classifier for graft status prediction performed very well with a prediction accuracy of 97.8% and true positive values of 0.967 and 0.988 for the living and failed classes, respectively. The second classifier to predict the graft survival period yielded a prediction accuracy of 68.2% and a true positive rate of 0.85 for the class representing those instances with kidneys failing during the first year following transplantation. Simulation results indicated that it is feasible to develop a successful Bayesian belief network classifier for prediction of graft status, but not the graft survival period, using the information in UNOS database.

Keywords: Bayesian network classifier, renal transplantation, graft survival period, United Network for Organ Sharing

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Authors: Joseph C. Chen, Venkata Mohan Kudapa

Abstract:

Development of two real-time surface roughness (Ra) prediction systems for milling operations was attempted. The systems used not only cutting parameters, such as feed rate and spindle speed, but also the cutting current generated and corrected by a clamp type energy sensor. Two different approaches were developed. First, a fuzzy inference system (FIS), in which the fuzzy logic rules are generated by experts in the milling processes, was used to conduct prediction modeling using current cutting data. Second, a neuro-fuzzy system (ANFIS) was explored. Neuro-fuzzy systems are adaptive techniques in which data are collected on the network, processed, and rules are generated by the system. The inference system then uses these rules to predict Ra as the output. Experimental results showed that the parameters of spindle speed, feed rate, depth of cut, and input current variation could predict Ra. These two systems enable the prediction of Ra during the milling operation with an average of 91.83% and 94.48% accuracy by FIS and ANFIS systems, respectively. Statistically, the ANFIS system provided better prediction accuracy than that of the FIS system.

Keywords: Surface roughness, input current, fuzzy logic, neuro-fuzzy, milling operations.

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Authors: Muhammad Shahid, Nasir-uddin Khan, Mushtaq Hussain, Muhammad Liaquat Ali, Asif Mansoor

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Tuberculosis (TB) remains a leading cause of infectious mortality. It is primarily transmitted by the respiratory route, individuals with active disease may infect others through airborne particles which releases when they cough, talk, or sing and subsequently inhale by others. In order to study the effect of the Bacilli Calmette-Guerin (BCG) vaccine after vaccination of TB patient, a Vaccinated Susceptible Infected and Recovered (VSIR) mathematical model is being developed to achieve the desired objectives. The mathematical model, so developed, shall be used to quantify the effect of BCG Vaccine to protect the immigrant young adult person. Moreover, equations are to be established for the disease endemic and free equilibrium states and subsequently utilized in disease stability analysis. The stability analysis will give a complete picture of disease annihilation from the total population if the total removal rate from the infectious group should be greater than total number of dormant infections produced throughout infectious period.

Keywords: Bacillus Calmette-Guerin vaccine, disease-free equilibrium state, VSIR Quantification, disease stability analysis.

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Authors: Vuk M. Popovic, Dunja D. Popovic

Abstract:

Software maintenance phase is started once a software project has been developed and delivered. After that, any modification to it corresponds to maintenance. Software maintenance involves modifications to keep a software project usable in a changed or a changing environment, to correct discovered faults, and modifications, and to improve performance or maintainability. Software maintenance and management of software maintenance are recognized as two most important and most expensive processes in a life of a software product. This research is basing the prediction of maintenance, on risks and time evaluation, and using them as data sets for working with neural networks. The aim of this paper is to provide support to project maintenance managers. They will be able to pass the issues planned for the next software-service-patch to the experts, for risk and working time evaluation, and afterward to put all data to neural networks in order to get software maintenance prediction. This process will lead to the more accurate prediction of the working hours needed for the software-service-patch, which will eventually lead to better planning of budget for the software maintenance projects.

Keywords: Laboratory information system, maintenance engineering, neural networks, software maintenance, software maintenance costs.

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