**Commenced**in January 2007

**Frequency:**Monthly

**Edition:**International

**Paper Count:**633

# Search results for: cumulative probability.

##### 633 Reliability Indices Evaluation of SEIG Rotor Core Magnetization with Minimum Capacitive Excitation for WECs

**Authors:**
Lokesh Varshney,
R. K. Saket

**Abstract:**

This paper presents reliability indices evaluation of the rotor core magnetization of the induction motor operated as a self excited induction generator by using probability distribution approach and Monte Carlo simulation. Parallel capacitors with calculated minimum capacitive value across the terminals of the induction motor operated as a SEIG with unregulated shaft speed have been connected during the experimental study. A three phase, 4 poles, 50Hz, 5.5 hp, 12.3A, 230V induction motor coupled with DC Shunt Motor was tested in the electrical machine laboratory with variable reactive loads. Based on this experimental study, it is possible to choose a reliable induction machines operated as a SEIG for unregulated renewable energy application in remote area or where grid is not available. Failure density function, cumulative failure distribution function, survivor function, hazard model, probability of success and probability of failure for reliability evaluation of the three phase induction motor operating as a SEIG have been presented graphically in this paper.

**Keywords:**
Residual magnetism,
magnetization curve,
induction
motor,
self excited induction generator,
probability distribution,
Monte Carlo simulation.

##### 632 Comparison of Wind Fragility for Window System in the Simplified 10 and 15-Story Building Considering Exposure Category

**Authors:**
Viriyavudh Sim,
WooYoung Jung

**Abstract:**

**Keywords:**
Wind fragility,
window system,
high rise building.

##### 631 Improved Segmentation of Speckled Images Using an Arithmetic-to-Geometric Mean Ratio Kernel

**Abstract:**

**Keywords:**
Discriminant function,
false alarm,
segmentation,
signal-to-noise ratio,
skewness,
speckle.

##### 630 The Possibility-Probability Relationship for Bloodstream Concentrations of Physiologically Active Substances

**Authors:**
Arkady Bolotin

**Abstract:**

**Keywords:**
Possibility distributions,
possibility-probability relationship.

##### 629 A Branch and Bound Algorithm for Resource Constrained Project Scheduling Problem Subject to Cumulative Resources

**Authors:**
A. Shirzadeh Chaleshtari,
Sh. Shadrokh

**Abstract:**

Renewable and non-renewable resource constraints have been vast studied in theoretical fields of project scheduling problems. However, although cumulative resources are widespread in practical cases, the literature on project scheduling problems subject to these resources is scant. So in order to study this type of resources more, in this paper we use the framework of a resource constrained project scheduling problem (RCPSP) with finish-start precedence relations between activities and subject to the cumulative resources in addition to the renewable resources. We develop a branch and bound algorithm for this problem customizing precedence tree algorithm of RCPSP. We perform extensive experimental analysis on the algorithm to check its effectiveness and performance for solving different instances of the problem in question.

**Keywords:**
Resource constrained project scheduling problem,
cumulative resources,
branch and bound algorithm,
precedence tree.

##### 628 An Overview of Handoff Techniques in Cellular Networks

**Authors:**
Nasıf Ekiz,
Tara Salih,
Sibel Küçüköner,
Kemal Fidanboylu

**Abstract:**

Continuation of an active call is one of the most important quality measurements in the cellular systems. Handoff process enables a cellular system to provide such a facility by transferring an active call from one cell to another. Different approaches are proposed and applied in order to achieve better handoff service. The principal parameters used to evaluate handoff techniques are: forced termination probability and call blocking probability. The mechanisms such as guard channels and queuing handoff calls decrease the forced termination probability while increasing the call blocking probability. In this paper we present an overview about the issues related to handoff initiation and decision and discuss about different types of handoff techniques available in the literature.

**Keywords:**
Handoff,
Forced Termination Probability,
Blocking probability,
Handoff Initiation,
Handoff Decision,
Handoff Prioritization Schemes.

##### 627 The State-of-Art Environmental Impact Assessment: An Overview

**Authors:**
Tsolmon Tumenjargal,
Muhammad Hassan Khalil,
Wu Yao Guo

**Abstract:**

The research on the effectiveness of environmental assessment (EA) is a milestone effort to evaluate the state of the field, including many contributors related with a lot of countries since more than two decades. In the 1960s, there was a surge of interest between modern industrialized countries over unexpected opposite effects of technical invention. The interest led to choice of approaches for assessing and prediction the impressions of technology and advancement for social and economic, state health and safety, solidity and the circumstances. These are consisting of risk assessment, technology assessment, environmental impact assessment and costbenefit analysis. In this research contribution, the authors have described the research status for environmental assessment in cumulative environmental system. This article discusses the methods for cumulative effect assessment (CEA).

**Keywords:**
Cumulative effect assessment,
Environmental impact
assessment.

##### 626 Computation of Probability Coefficients using Binary Decision Diagram and their Application in Test Vector Generation

**Authors:**
Ashutosh Kumar Singh,
Anand Mohan

**Abstract:**

**Keywords:**
Binary Decision Diagrams,
Spectral Coefficients,
Fault detection

##### 625 Reliability Assessment of Bangladesh Power System Using Recursive Algorithm

**Authors:**
Nahid-Al-Masood,
Jubaer Ahmed,
Amina Hasan Abedin,
S. R. Deeba,
Faeza Hafiz,
Mahmuda Begum

**Abstract:**

An electric utility-s main concern is to plan, design, operate and maintain its power supply to provide an acceptable level of reliability to its users. This clearly requires that standards of reliability be specified and used in all three sectors of the power system, i.e., generation, transmission and distribution. That is why reliability of a power system is always a major concern to power system planners. This paper presents the reliability analysis of Bangladesh Power System (BPS). Reliability index, loss of load probability (LOLP) of BPS is evaluated using recursive algorithm and considering no de-rated states of generators. BPS has sixty one generators and a total installed capacity of 5275 MW. The maximum demand of BPS is about 5000 MW. The relevant data of the generators and hourly load profiles are collected from the National Load Dispatch Center (NLDC) of Bangladesh and reliability index 'LOLP' is assessed for the period of last ten years.

**Keywords:**
Recursive algorithm,
LOLP,
forced outage rate,
cumulative probability.

##### 624 Analysis Fraction Flow of Water versus Cumulative Oil Recoveries Using Buckley Leverett Method

**Authors:**
Reza Cheraghi Kootiani,
Ariffin Bin Samsuri

**Abstract:**

**Keywords:**
Fractional Flow,
Fluid Saturations,
Permeability,
Cumulative Oil Recoveries,
Buckley Leverett Method.

##### 623 Determination of Sensitive Transmission Lines Due to the Effect of Protection System Hidden Failure in a Critical System Cascading Collapse

**Authors:**
N. A. Salim,
M. M. Othman,
I. Musirin,
M. S. Serwan

**Abstract:**

Protection system hidden failures have been identified as one of the main causes of system cascading collapse resulting to power system instability. In this paper, a systematic approach is presented in order to identify the probability of a system cascading collapse by taking into consideration the effect of protection system hidden failure. This includes the accurate calculation of the probability of hidden failure as it will provide significant impinge on the findings of the probability of system cascading collapse. The probability of a system cascading collapse is then used to identify the initial tripping of sensitive transmission lines which will contribute to a critical system cascading collapse. Based on the results obtained from this study, it is important to decide on the accurate value of the hidden failure probability as it will affect the probability of a system cascading collapse.

**Keywords:**
Critical system cascading collapse,
hidden failure,
probability of cascading collapse,
sensitive transmission lines.

##### 622 Normalized Cumulative Spectral Distribution in Music

**Authors:**
Young-Hwan Song,
Hyung-Jun Kwon,
Myung-Jin Bae

**Abstract:**

**Keywords:**
Cognitive Psychology,
Normalized Cumulative
Spectral Distribution,
Curvature.

##### 621 An Approaching Index to Evaluate a forward Collision Probability

**Authors:**
Yuan-Lin Chen

**Abstract:**

This paper presents an approaching forward collision probability index (AFCPI) for alerting and assisting driver in keeping safety distance to avoid the forward collision accident in highway driving. The time to collision (TTC) and time headway (TH) are used to evaluate the TTC forward collision probability index (TFCPI) and the TH forward collision probability index (HFCPI), respectively. The Mamdani fuzzy inference algorithm is presented combining TFCPI and HFCPI to calculate the approaching collision probability index of the vehicle. The AFCPI is easier to understand for the driver who did not even have any professional knowledge in vehicle professional field. At the same time, the driver’s behavior is taken into account for suiting each driver. For the approaching index, the value 0 is indicating the 0% probability of forward collision, and the values 0.5 and 1 are indicating the 50% and 100% probabilities of forward collision, respectively. The AFCPI is useful and easy-to-understand for alerting driver to avoid the forward collision accidents when driving in highway.

**Keywords:**
Approaching index,
forward collision probability,
time to collision,
time headway.

##### 620 Ruin Probability for a Markovian Risk Model with Two-type Claims

**Authors:**
Dongdong Zhang,
Deran Zhang

**Abstract:**

In this paper, a Markovian risk model with two-type claims is considered. In such a risk model, the occurrences of the two type claims are described by two point processes {Ni(t), t ¸ 0}, i = 1, 2, where {Ni(t), t ¸ 0} is the number of jumps during the interval (0, t] for the Markov jump process {Xi(t), t ¸ 0} . The ruin probability ª(u) of a company facing such a risk model is mainly discussed. An integral equation satisfied by the ruin probability ª(u) is obtained and the bounds for the convergence rate of the ruin probability ª(u) are given by using key-renewal theorem.

**Keywords:**
Risk model,
ruin probability,
Markov jump process,
integral equation.

##### 619 On-line Lao Handwritten Recognition with Proportional Invariant Feature

**Authors:**
Khampheth Bounnady,
Boontee Kruatrachue,
Somkiat Wangsiripitak

**Abstract:**

This paper proposed high level feature for online Lao handwritten recognition. This feature must be high level enough so that the feature is not change when characters are written by different persons at different speed and different proportion (shorter or longer stroke, head, tail, loop, curve). In this high level feature, a character is divided in to sequence of curve segments where a segment start where curve reverse rotation (counter clockwise and clockwise). In each segment, following features are gathered cumulative change in direction of curve (- for clockwise), cumulative curve length, cumulative length of left to right, right to left, top to bottom and bottom to top ( cumulative change in X and Y axis of segment). This feature is simple yet robust for high accuracy recognition. The feature can be gather from parsing the original time sampling sequence X, Y point of the pen location without re-sampling. We also experiment on other segmentation point such as the maximum curvature point which was widely used by other researcher. Experiments results show that the recognition rates are at 94.62% in comparing to using maximum curvature point 75.07%. This is due to a lot of variations of turning points in handwritten.

**Keywords:**
Handwritten feature,
chain code,
Lao handwritten recognition.

##### 618 Application of Adaptive Genetic Algorithm in Function Optimization

**Authors:**
Panpan Xu,
Shulin Sui

**Abstract:**

The crossover probability and mutation probability are the two important factors in genetic algorithm. The adaptive genetic algorithm can improve the convergence performance of genetic algorithm, in which the crossover probability and mutation probability are adaptively designed with the changes of fitness value. We apply adaptive genetic algorithm into a function optimization problem. The numerical experiment represents that adaptive genetic algorithm improves the convergence speed and avoids local convergence.

**Keywords:**
Genetic algorithm,
Adaptive genetic algorithm,
Function optimization.

##### 617 Determination of the Best Fit Probability Distribution for Annual Rainfall in Karkheh River at Iran

**Authors:**
Karim Hamidi Machekposhti,
Hossein Sedghi

**Abstract:**

This study was designed to find the best-fit probability distribution of annual rainfall based on 50 years sample (1966-2015) in the Karkheh river basin at Iran using six probability distributions: Normal, 2-Parameter Log Normal, 3-Parameter Log Normal, Pearson Type 3, Log Pearson Type 3 and Gumbel distribution. The best fit probability distribution was selected using Stormwater Management and Design Aid (SMADA) software and based on the Residual Sum of Squares (R.S.S) between observed and estimated values Based on the R.S.S values of fit tests, the Log Pearson Type 3 and then Pearson Type 3 distributions were found to be the best-fit probability distribution at the Jelogir Majin and Pole Zal rainfall gauging station. The annual values of expected rainfall were calculated using the best fit probability distributions and can be used by hydrologists and design engineers in future research at studied region and other region in the world.

**Keywords:**
Log Pearson Type 3,
SMADA,
rainfall,
Karkheh River.

##### 616 A Case Study on the Numerical-Probability Approach for Deep Excavation Analysis

**Authors:**
Komeil Valipourian

**Abstract:**

Urban advances and the growing need for developing infrastructures has increased the importance of deep excavations. In this study, after the introducing probability analysis as an important issue, an attempt has been made to apply it for the deep excavation project of Bangkok’s Metro as a case study. For this, the numerical probability model has been developed based on the Finite Difference Method and Monte Carlo sampling approach. The results indicate that disregarding the issue of probability in this project will result in an inappropriate design of the retaining structure. Therefore, probabilistic redesign of the support is proposed and carried out as one of the applications of probability analysis. A 50% reduction in the flexural strength of the structure increases the failure probability just by 8% in the allowable range and helps improve economic conditions, while maintaining mechanical efficiency. With regard to the lack of efficient design in most deep excavations, by considering geometrical and geotechnical variability, an attempt was made to develop an optimum practical design standard for deep excavations based on failure probability. On this basis, a practical relationship is presented for estimating the maximum allowable horizontal displacement, which can help improve design conditions without developing the probability analysis.

**Keywords:**
Numerical probability modeling,
deep excavation,
allowable maximum displacement,
finite difference method,
FDM.

##### 615 Probability of Globality

**Authors:**
Eva Eggeling,
Dieter W. Fellner,
Torsten Ullrich

**Abstract:**

**Keywords:**
global optimization,
probability theory,
probability of
globality

##### 614 Approximation for Average Error Probability of BPSK in the Presence of Phase Error

**Authors:**
Yeonsoo Jang,
Dongweon Yoon,
Ki Ho Kwon,
Jaeyoon Lee,
Wooju Lee

**Abstract:**

**Keywords:**
Average error probability,
Phase shift keying,
Phase
error

##### 613 The Giant Component in a Random Subgraph of a Weak Expander

**Authors:**
Yilun Shang

**Abstract:**

In this paper, we investigate the appearance of the giant component in random subgraphs G(p) of a given large finite graph family Gn = (Vn, En) in which each edge is present independently with probability p. We show that if the graph Gn satisfies a weak isoperimetric inequality and has bounded degree, then the probability p under which G(p) has a giant component of linear order with some constant probability is bounded away from zero and one. In addition, we prove the probability of abnormally large order of the giant component decays exponentially. When a contact graph is modeled as Gn, our result is of special interest in the study of the spread of infectious diseases or the identification of community in various social networks.

**Keywords:**
subgraph,
expander,
random graph,
giant component,
percolation.

##### 612 Dissociation of CDS from CVA Valuation under Notation Changes

**Authors:**
R. Henry,
J-B. Paulin,
St. Fauchille,
Ph. Delord,
K. Benkirane,
A. Brunel

**Abstract:**

In this paper the CVA computation of interest rate swap is presented based on its rating. Rating and probability default given by Moody’s Investors Service are used to calculate our CVA for a specific swap with different maturities. With this computation the influence of rating variation can be shown on CVA. Application is made to the analysis of Greek CDS variation during the period of Greek crisis between 2008 and 2011. The main point is the determination of correlation between the fluctuation of Greek CDS cumulative value and the variation of swap CVA due to change of rating.

**Keywords:**
CDS,
Computation,
CVA,
Greek Crisis,
Interest
Rate Swap,
Maturity,
Rating,
Swap.

##### 611 The Locker Problem with Empty Lockers

**Authors:**
David Avis,
Luc Devroye,
Kazuo Iwama

**Abstract:**

We consider a cooperative game played by n players against a referee. The players names are randomly distributed among n lockers, with one name per locker. Each player can open up to half the lockers and each player must find his name. Once the game starts the players may not communicate. It has been previously shown that, quite surprisingly, an optimal strategy exists for which the success probability is never worse than 1 − ln 2 ≈ 0.306. In this paper we consider an extension where the number of lockers is greater than the number of players, so that some lockers are empty. We show that the players may still win with positive probability even if there are a constant k number of empty lockers. We show that for each fixed probability p, there is a constant c so that the players can win with probability at least p if they are allowed to open cn lockers.

**Keywords:**
Locker problem,
pointer-following algorithms.

##### 610 Probabilities and the Persistence of Memory in a Bingo-like Carnival Game

**Authors:**
M. Glomski,
M. Lopes

**Abstract:**

Seemingly simple probabilities in the m-player game bingo have never been calculated. These probabilities include expected game length and the expected number of winners on a given turn. The difficulty in probabilistic analysis lies in the subtle interdependence among the m-many bingo game cards in play. In this paper, the game i got it!, a bingo variant, is considered. This variation provides enough weakening of the inter-player dependence to allow probabilistic analysis not possible for traditional bingo. The probability of winning in exactly k turns is calculated for a one-player game. Given a game of m-many players, the expected game length and tie probability are calculated. With these calculations, the game-s interesting payout scheme is considered.

**Keywords:**
Conditional probability,
games of chance,
npersongames,
probability theory.

##### 609 Simple Procedure for Probability Calculation of Tensile Crack Occurring in Rigid Pavement – Case Study

**Authors:**
Aleš Florian,
Lenka Ševelová,
Jaroslav Žák

**Abstract:**

Formation of tensile cracks in concrete slabs of rigid pavement can be (among others) the initiation point of the other, more serious failures which can ultimately lead to complete degradation of the concrete slab and thus the whole pavement. Two measures can be used for reliability assessment of this phenomenon - the probability of failure and/or the reliability index. Different methods can be used for their calculation. The simple ones are called moment methods and simulation techniques. Two methods - FOSM Method and Simple Random Sampling Method - are verified and their comparison is performed. The influence of information about the probability distribution and the statistical parameters of input variables as well as of the limit state function on the calculated reliability index and failure probability are studied in three points on the lower surface of concrete slabs of the older type of rigid pavement formerly used in the Czech Republic.

**Keywords:**
Failure,
pavement,
probability,
reliability index,
simulation,
tensile crack.

##### 608 Performance Analysis of Energy-Efficient Home Femto Base Stations

**Authors:**
Yun Won Chung

**Abstract:**

**Keywords:**
energy consumption,
power saving,
femto base station.

##### 607 Disaggregation the Daily Rainfall Dataset into Sub-Daily Resolution in the Temperate Oceanic Climate Region

**Authors:**
Mohammad Bakhshi,
Firas Al Janabi

**Abstract:**

High resolution rain data are very important to fulfill the input of hydrological models. Among models of high-resolution rainfall data generation, the temporal disaggregation was chosen for this study. The paper attempts to generate three different rainfall resolutions (4-hourly, hourly and 10-minutes) from daily for around 20-year record period. The process was done by DiMoN tool which is based on random cascade model and method of fragment. Differences between observed and simulated rain dataset are evaluated with variety of statistical and empirical methods: Kolmogorov-Smirnov test (K-S), usual statistics, and Exceedance probability. The tool worked well at preserving the daily rainfall values in wet days, however, the generated data are cumulated in a shorter time period and made stronger storms. It is demonstrated that the difference between generated and observed cumulative distribution function curve of 4-hourly datasets is passed the K-S test criteria while in hourly and 10-minutes datasets the P-value should be employed to prove that their differences were reasonable. The results are encouraging considering the overestimation of generated high-resolution rainfall data.

**Keywords:**
DiMoN tool,
disaggregation,
exceedance probability,
Kolmogorov-Smirnov Test,
rainfall.

##### 606 Assessment of Landslide Volume for Alishan Highway Based On Database of Rainfall-Induced Slope Failure

**Authors:**
Yun-Yao Chi,
Ya-Fen Lee

**Abstract:**

In this paper, a study of slope failures along the Alishan Highway is carried out. An innovative empirical model is developed based on 15-year records of rainfall-induced slope failures. The statistical models are intended for assessing the volume of landslide for slope failure along the Alishan Highway in the future. The rainfall data considered in the proposed models include the effective cumulative rainfall and the critical rainfall intensity. The effective cumulative rainfall is defined at the point when the curve of cumulative rainfall goes from steep to flat. Then, the rainfall thresholds of landslide are established for assessing the volume of landslide and issuing warning and/or closure for the Alishan Highway during a future extreme rainfall. Slope failures during Typhoon Saola in 2012 demonstrate that the new empirical model is effective and applicable to other cases with similar rainfall conditions.

**Keywords:**
Slope failure,
landslide,
volume,
model,
rainfall thresholds.

##### 605 Detection of Bias in GPS satellites- Measurements for Enhanced Measurement Integrity

**Authors:**
Mamoun F. Abdel-Hafez

**Abstract:**

In this paper, the detection of a fault in the Global Positioning System (GPS) measurement is addressed. The class of faults considered is a bias in the GPS pseudorange measurements. This bias is modeled as an unknown constant. The fault could be the result of a receiver fault or signal fault such as multipath error. A bias bank is constructed based on set of possible fault hypotheses. Initially, there is equal probability of occurrence for any of the biases in the bank. Subsequently, as the measurements are processed, the probability of occurrence for each of the biases is sequentially updated. The fault with a probability approaching unity will be declared as the current fault in the GPS measurement. The residual formed from the GPS and Inertial Measurement Unit (IMU) measurements is used to update the probability of each fault. Results will be presented to show the performance of the presented algorithm.

**Keywords:**
Estimation and filtering,
Statistical data analysis,
Faultdetection and identification.

##### 604 One scheme of Transition Probability Evaluation

**Authors:**
Alexander B. Bichkov,
Alla A. Mityureva,
Valery V. Smirnov

**Abstract:**

**Keywords:**
Path integral,
saddle point method,
semiclassical approximation,
transition probability