Search results for: combined cycle simulation

Authors: M. Kovac

Abstract:

This article describes design of the 8-bit asynchronous microcontroller simulation model in VHDL. The model is created in ISE Foundation design tool and simulated in Modelsim tool. This model is a simple application example of asynchronous systems designed in synchronous design tools. The design process of creating asynchronous system with 4-phase bundled-data protocol and with matching delays is described in the article. The model is described in gate-level abstraction. The simulation waveform of the functional construction is the result of this article. Described construction covers only the simulation model. The next step would be creating synthesizable model to FPGA.

Keywords: Asynchronous, Microcontroller, VHDL, FPGA.

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Authors: Christian Doppler, Gernot Hirschl, Gerhard Zsiga

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Starting in 2020, an EU-wide CO2-limitation of 95 g/km is scheduled for the average of an OEMs passenger car fleet. Taking that into consideration additional improvement measures of the Diesel cycle are necessary in order to reduce fuel consumption and emissions while boosting, or at the least, keeping performance values at the same time. The present article deals with the possibilities of an optimized air/water charge air cooler, also called iCAC (indirect Charge Air Cooler) for a Diesel passenger car amongst extreme-boundary conditions. In this context, the precise objective was to show the impact of improved intercooling with reference to the engine working process (fuel consumption and NOx-emissions). Several extremeboundaries - e.g. varying ambient temperatures or mountainous routes - that will become very important in the near future regarding RDE (Real Driving emissions) were subject of the investigation. With the introduction of RDE in 2017 (EU6c measure), the controversial NEDC (New European Driving Cycle) will belong to the past and the OEMs will have to avoid harmful emissions in any conceivable real life situation. This is certainly going to lead to optimization-measurements at the powertrain, which again is going to make the implementation of iCACs, presently solely used for the premium class, more and more attractive for compact class cars. The investigations showed a benefit in FC between 1 and 3% for the iCAC in real world conditions.

Keywords: Air/Water-Charge Air Cooler, Co-Simulation, Diesel Working Process, EURO VI Fuel Consumption.

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Authors: Shamsuddin Ahmed, Francis Amagoh

Abstract:

This paper presents a case study that uses processoriented simulation to identify bottlenecks in the service delivery system in an emergency department of a hospital in the United Arab Emirates. Using results of the simulation, response surface models were developed to explain patient waiting time and the total time patients spend in the hospital system. Results of the study could be used as a service improvement tool to help hospital management in improving patient throughput and service quality in the hospital system.

Keywords: Simulation, Hospital Service, Resource Utilization, United Arab Emirates.

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Authors: Anabel Fernandez, Leandro Rodriguez-Ortiz, Rosa Rodríguez

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Due to the negative impact of fossil fuels, renewable energies are promising sources to limit global temperature rise and damage to the environment. Also, the development of technology is focused on obtaining energetic products from renewable sources. In this study, a thermodynamic model including exergy balance and a subsequent Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) were carried out for four subsystems of the integrated gasification-combustion of pinewood. Results of exergy analysis and LCA showed the process feasibility in terms of exergy efficiency and global energy efficiency of the life cycle (GEELC). Moreover, the energy return on investment (EROI) index was calculated. The global exergy efficiency resulted in 67%. For pretreatment, reaction, cleaning, and electric generation subsystems, the results were 85%, 59%, 87%, and 29%, respectively. Results of LCA indicated that the emissions from the electric generation caused the most damage to the atmosphere, water, and soil. GEELC resulted in 31.09% for the global process. This result suggested the environmental feasibility of an integrated gasification-combustion system. EROI resulted in 3.15, which determines the sustainability of the process.

Keywords: Exergy analysis, Life Cycle Assessment, LCA, renewability, sustainability.

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Authors: E. Yosry, W. Fikry, A. El-henawy, M. Marzouk

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This work offers a study of new simple compact model of dual-drain Magnetic Field Effect Transistor (MAGFET) including geometrical effects and biasing dependency. An explanation of the sensitivity is investigated, involving carrier deflection as the dominant operating principle. Finally, model verification with simulation results is introduced to ensure that acceptable error of 2% is achieved.

Keywords: MAGFET, Modeling, Simulation, Split-drain.

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Authors: B. A. A. Paixão, J. V. B. Gomide

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This work aims to analyze the locative structure used by the locative games of the company Niantic. To fulfill this objective, a literature review on the representation and simulation of cities was developed; interviews with Ingress players and playing Ingress. Relating these data, it was possible to deepen the relationship between the virtual and the real to create the simulation of cities and their cultural objects in locative games. Cities representation associates geo-location provided by the Global Positioning System (GPS), with augmented reality and digital image, and provides a new paradigm in the city interaction with its parts and real and virtual world elements, homeomorphic to real world. Bibliographic review of papers related to the representation and simulation study and their application in locative games was carried out and is presented in the present paper. The cities representation and simulation concepts in locative games, and how this setting enables the flow and immersion in urban space, are analyzed. Some examples of games are discussed for this new setting development, which is a mix of real and virtual world. Finally, it was proposed a Locative Structure for electronic games using the concepts of heterotrophic representations and isotropic representations conjoined with immediacy and hypermediacy.

Keywords: Cities representation, city simulation, games simulation, locative games.

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Authors: Yasmin Yahya, Roslan Ismail, Samreth Vanna, Khorn Saret

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The study on the tree growth for four species groups of commercial timber in Koh Kong province, Cambodia-s tropical rainforest is described. The simulation for these four groups had been successfully developed in the 5-year interval through year-60. Data were obtained from twenty permanent sample plots in the duration of thirteen years. The aim for this study was to develop stand table simulation system of tree growth by the species group. There were five steps involved in the development of the tree growth simulation: aggregate the tree species into meaningful groups by using cluster analysis; allocate the trees in the diameter classes by the species group; observe the diameter movement of the species group. The diameter growth rate, mortality rate and recruitment rate were calculated by using some mathematical formula. Simulation equation had been created by combining those parameters. Result showed the dissimilarity of the diameter growth among species groups.

Keywords: cluster analysis, diameter growth, simulation

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Authors: Sh. Shahhosseini, S. Alinia, M. Irani

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In this paper 2D Simulation of catalytic Fixed Bed Reactor in Fischer-Tropsch Synthesis of GTL technology has been performed utilizing computational fluid dynamics (CFD). Synthesis gas (a mixture of carbon monoxide and hydrogen) has been used as feedstock. The reactor was modeled and the model equations were solved employing finite volume method. The model was validated against the experimental data reported in literature. The comparison showed a good agreement between simulation results and the experimental data. In addition, the model was applied to predict the concentration contours of the reactants and products along the length of reactor.

Keywords: GTL, Fischer–Tropsch synthesis, Fixed Bed Reactor, CFD simulation.

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Authors: Elyse Sili, Jean Pascal Cambronne

Abstract:

In aircraft applications, according to the nature of electrical equipment its location may be in unpressurized area or very close to the engine; thus, the environmental conditions may change from atmospheric pressure to less than 100 mbar, and the temperature may be higher than the ambient one as in most real working conditions of electrical equipment. Then, the classical Paschen curve has to be replotted since these parameters may affect the discharge ignition voltage. In this paper, we firstly investigate the domain of validity of two corrective expressions on the Paschen-s law found in the literature, in case of changing the air environment and known as Peek and Dunbar corrections. Results show that these corrections are no longer valid for combined variation of temperature and pressure. After that, a new empirical expression for breakdown voltage is proposed and is validated in the case of combined variations of temperature and pressure.

Keywords: Gas breakdown, gas density, Paschen curve, temperature effects

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Authors: N. Javadian, J. Rezaeian, Y. Maali

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In this paper a multi-objective nonlinear programming model of cellular manufacturing system is presented which minimize the intercell movements and maximize the sum of reliability of cells. We present a genetic approach for finding efficient solutions to the problem of cell formation for products having multiple routings. These methods find the non-dominated solutions and according to decision makers prefer, the best solution will be chosen.

Keywords: Cellular Manufacturing, Genetic Algorithm, Multiobjective, Life-Cycle.

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Authors: U. P. L. Wijayarathne, K. C. Wasalathilake

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This work presents the modelling and simulation of saponification of ethyl acetate in the presence of sodium hydroxide in a plug flow reactor using Aspen Plus simulation software. Plug flow reactors are widely used in the industry due to the non-mixing property. The use of plug flow reactors becomes significant when there is a need for continuous large scale reaction or fast reaction. Plug flow reactors have a high volumetric unit conversion as the occurrence for side reactions is minimum. In this research Aspen Plus V8.0 has been successfully used to simulate the plug flow reactor. In order to simulate the process as accurately as possible HYSYS Peng- Robinson EOS package was used as the property method. The results obtained from the simulation were verified by the experiment carried out in the EDIBON plug flow reactor module. The correlation coefficient (r2) was 0.98 and it proved that simulation results satisfactorily fit for the experimental model. The developed model can be used as a guide for understanding the reaction kinetics of a plug flow reactor.

Keywords: Aspen Plus, Modelling, Plug Flow Reactor, Simulation.

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Authors: Markéta Gregušová, Vladimíra Schindlerová, Ivana Šajdlerová, Petr Mohyla, Jan Kedroň

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Company managers are always looking for more and more opportunities to succeed in today's fiercely competitive market. To maintain your place among the successful companies on the market today or to come up with a revolutionary business idea is much more difficult than before. Each new or improved method, tool, or approach that can improve the functioning of business processes or even of the entire system is worth checking and verification. The use of simulation in the design of manufacturing systems and their management in practice is one of the ways without increased risk, which makes it possible to find the optimal parameters of manufacturing processes and systems. The paper presents an example of use of simulation for solution of the bottleneck problem in the concrete company.

Keywords: Practical applications, business processes, systems, simulation.

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Authors: Musthafah b. Mohd.Tahir, Noboru Yamada, Tetsuya Hoshino

Abstract:

This paper describes the experimental efficiency of a compact organic Rankine cycle (ORC) system with a compact rotary-vane-type expander. The compact ORC system can be used for power generation from low-temperature heat sources such as waste heat from various small-scale heat engines, fuel cells, electric devices, and solar thermal energy. The purpose of this study is to develop an ORC system with a low power output of less than 1 kW with a hot temperature source ranging from 60°C to 100°C and a cold temperature source ranging from 10°C to 30°C. The power output of the system is rather less due to limited heat efficiency. Therefore, the system should have an economically optimal efficiency. In order to realize such a system, an efficient and low-cost expander is indispensable. An experimental ORC system was developed using the rotary-vane-type expander which is one of possible candidates of the expander. The experimental results revealed the expander performance for various rotation speeds, expander efficiencies, and thermal efficiencies. Approximately 30 W of expander power output with 48% expander efficiency and 4% thermal efficiency with a temperature difference between the hot and cold sources of 80°C was achieved.

Keywords: Organic Rankine cycle, Thermodynamic cycle, Thermal efficiency, Turbine efficiency, Waste heat recovery, Powergeneration, Low temperature heat engine.

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Authors: He Chao, Zhang Lei, Liu Ran, Li Ang

Abstract:

Temperature regulating system by gaseous nitrogen is of importance to the space environment simulator, which keeps the shrouds in the temperature range from -150°C to +150°C. Liquid nitrogen spray equipment is one of the most critical parts in the temperature regulating system by gaseous nitrogen. Y type jet atomizer and internal mixing atomizer of the liquid nitrogen spray equipment are studied in this paper, 2D/3D atomizer model was established and grid division was conducted respectively by the software of Catia and ICEM. Based on the above preparation, numerical simulation on the spraying process of the atomizer by FLUENT is performed. Using air and water as the medium, comparison between the tests and numerical simulation was conducted and the results of two ways match well. Hence, it can be conclude that this atomizer model can be applied in the numerical simulation of liquid nitrogen spray equipment.

Keywords: Space environmental simulator, liquid nitrogen spray, Y type jet atomizer, internal mixing atomizer, numerical simulation, fluent.

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Authors: Hazem M. El-Bakry, Ahmed Atwan

Abstract:

Computer networks are essential part in computerbased information systems. The performance of these networks has a great influence on the whole information system. Measuring the usability criteria and customers satisfaction on small computer network is very important. In this article, an effective approach for measuring the usability of business network in an information system is introduced. The usability process for networking provides us with a flexible and a cost-effective way to assess the usability of a network and its products. In addition, the proposed approach can be used to certify network product usability late in the development cycle. Furthermore, it can be used to help in developing usable interfaces very early in the cycle and to give a way to measure, track, and improve usability. Moreover, a new approach for fast information processing over computer networks is presented. The entire data are collected together in a long vector and then tested as a one input pattern. Proposed fast time delay neural networks (FTDNNs) use cross correlation in the frequency domain between the tested data and the input weights of neural networks. It is proved mathematically and practically that the number of computation steps required for the presented time delay neural networks is less than that needed by conventional time delay neural networks (CTDNNs). Simulation results using MATLAB confirm the theoretical computations.

Keywords: Usability Criteria, Computer Networks, Fast Information Processing, Cross Correlation, Frequency Domain.

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Authors: Fabrice Poirion, Benedicte Puig

Abstract:

Mathematical justifications are given for a simulation technique of multivariate nonGaussian random processes and fields based on Rosenblatt-s transformation of Gaussian processes. Different types of convergences are given for the approaching sequence. Moreover an original numerical method is proposed in order to solve the functional equation yielding the underlying Gaussian process autocorrelation function.

Keywords: Simulation, nonGaussian, random field, multivariate, stochastic process.

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Authors: Nyein Nyein Soe, Thet Thet Han Yee, Soe Sandar Aung

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This paper is proposed the dynamic simulation of small power induction motor based on Mathematical modeling. The dynamic simulation is one of the key steps in the validation of the design process of the motor drive systems and it is needed for eliminating inadvertent design mistakes and the resulting error in the prototype construction and testing. This paper demonstrates the simulation of steady-state performance of induction motor by MATLAB Program Three phase 3 hp induction motor is modeled and simulated with SIMULINK model.

Keywords: Squirrel cage induction motor, modeling andsimulation, MATLAB software, torque, speed.

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Authors: Thandar Aung, Tun Lin Naing

Abstract:

In this paper, the DC-link voltage control of DC-DC boost converter–inverter system is proposed. The mathematical model is developed from four different sub-circuits that depended on the switch positions. The developed differential equations are combined to develop the dynamic model. Transfer function is generated from the switched function model. Fluctuation of DC-link voltage causes connected loads malfunction. For this problem, a kind of traditional controller, the PI controller is applied to achieve constant DC-link voltage. The PI controller gains are obtained based on transfer function step response. The simulation work has been studied by using MATLAB/Simulink software and hardware prototype is implemented with a low-cost microcontroller Arduino Nano. Experimental results are collected by using ArduinoIO library package. Closed-loop DC-link voltage control system is tested with various line and load disturbances. It is found that the experimental results give equal responses with the simulation results.

Keywords: ArduinoIO library package, boost converter-inverter system, low cost microcontroller, PI controller, switched function model.

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Authors: Mohammed W. Abdulrahman

Abstract:

The thermochemical copper-chlorine (Cu-Cl) cycle is considered as a sustainable and efficient technology for a hydrogen production, when linked with clean-energy systems such as nuclear reactors or solar thermal plants. In the Cu-Cl cycle, water is decomposed thermally into hydrogen and oxygen through a series of intermediate reactions. This paper investigates the thermal scale up analysis of the three phase oxygen production reactor in the Cu-Cl cycle, where the reaction is endothermic and the temperature is about 530 ^oC. The paper focuses on examining the size and number of oxygen reactors required to provide enough heat input for different rates of hydrogen production. The type of the multiphase reactor used in this paper is the continuous stirred tank reactor (CSTR) that is heated by a half pipe jacket. The thermal resistance of each section in the jacketed reactor system is studied to examine its effect on the heat balance of the reactor. It is found that the dominant contribution to the system thermal resistance is from the reactor wall. In the analysis, the Cu-Cl cycle is assumed to be driven by a nuclear reactor where two types of nuclear reactors are examined as the heat source to the oxygen reactor. These types are the CANDU Super Critical Water Reactor (CANDU-SCWR) and High Temperature Gas Reactor (HTGR). It is concluded that a better heat transfer rate has to be provided for CANDU-SCWR by 3-4 times than HTGR. The effect of the reactor aspect ratio is also examined in this paper and is found that increasing the aspect ratio decreases the number of reactors and the rate of decrease in the number of reactors decreases by increasing the aspect ratio. Finally, a comparison between the results of heat balance and existing results of mass balance is performed and is found that the size of the oxygen reactor is dominated by the heat balance rather than the material balance.

Keywords: Clean energy, Cu-Cl cycle, heat transfer, sustainable energy.

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Authors: Pawan S. Nagda, Purnank S. Bhatt, Mit K. Shah

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Earing defect in drawing process is highly undesirable not only because it adds on an additional trimming operation but also because the uneven material flow demands extra care. The objective of this work is to study the earing problem in the Deep Drawing of circular cup and to optimize the blank shape to reduce the earing. A finite element model is developed for 3-D numerical simulation of cup forming process in ABAQUS. Extra-deep-drawing (EDD) steel sheet has been used for simulation. Properties and tool design parameters were used as input for simulation. Earing was observed in the simulated cup and it was measured at various angles with respect to rolling direction. To reduce the earing defect initial blank shape was modified with the help of anisotropy coefficient. Modified blanks showed notable reduction in earing.

Keywords: Finite element simulation, deep drawing, earing, anisotropy.

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Authors: Padmakumar S., Vivek Agarwal, Kallol Roy

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With the advent of inexpensive 32 bit floating point digital signal processor-s availability in market, many computationally intensive algorithms such as Kalman filter becomes feasible to implement in real time. Dynamic simulation of a self excited DC motor using second order state variable model and implementation of Kalman Filter in a floating point DSP TMS320C6713 is presented in this paper with an objective to introduce and implement such an algorithm, for beginners. A fractional hp DC motor is simulated in both Matlab® and DSP and the results are included. A step by step approach for simulation of DC motor in Matlab® and “C" routines in CC Studio® is also given. CC studio® project file details and environmental setting requirements are addressed. This tutorial can be used with 6713 DSK, which is based on floating point DSP and CC Studio either in hardware mode or in simulation mode.

Keywords: DC motor, DSP, Dynamic simulation, Kalman Filter

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Authors: Gonçalo G. Aleixo, Alexandra B. Tenera

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This work will provide a new perspective of exploring innovation thematic. It will reveal that radical and incremental innovations are complementary during the innovation life cycle and accomplished through distinct ways of developing new products. Each new product development process will be constructed according to the nature of each innovation and the state of the product development. This paper proposes the inclusion of the organizational function areas that influence new product's development on the new product development process.

Keywords: Cross-functional, Incremental Innovation, New Product development Process, Radical Innovation

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Authors: Martin Kendra, Tomas Skrucany, Jozef Gnap, Jan Ponicky

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Paper deals with the modeling and simulation of energy consumption and GHG production of two different modes of regional passenger transport – road and railway. These two transport modes use the same type of fuel – diesel. Modeling and simulation of the energy consumption in transport is often used due to calculation satisfactory accuracy and cost efficiency. Paper deals with the calculation based on EN standards and information collected from technical information from vehicle producers and characteristics of tracks. Calculation included maximal theoretical capacity of bus and train and real passenger’s measurement from operation. Final energy consumption and GHG production is calculated by using software simulation. In evaluation of the simulation is used system “well to wheel”.

Keywords: Bus, energy consumption, GHG, production, simulation, train.

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Authors: Hakim T. Kadhim, Faris A. Jabbar, Aldo Rona, Audrius Bagdanaviciu

Abstract:

Computer-based optimization techniques can be employed to improve the efficiency of energy conversions processes, including reducing the aerodynamic loss in a thermal power plant turbomachine. In this paper, towards mitigating secondary flow losses, a design optimization workflow is implemented for the casing geometry of a 1.5 stage axial flow turbine that improves the turbine isentropic efficiency. The improved turbine is used in an open thermodynamic gas cycle with regeneration and cogeneration. Performance estimates are obtained by the commercial software Cycle – Tempo. Design and off design conditions are considered as well as variations in inlet air temperature. Reductions in both the natural gas specific fuel consumption and in CO₂ emissions are predicted by using the gas turbine cycle fitted with the new casing design. These gains are attractive towards enhancing the competitiveness and reducing the environmental impact of thermal power plant.

Keywords: Axial flow turbine, computational fluid dynamics, gas turbine power plant, optimization.

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Authors: Peter G. Youssef, Saad M. Mahmoud, Raya K. Al-Dadah

Abstract:

Many water desalination technologies have been developed but in general they are energy intensive and have high cost and adverse environmental impact. Recently, adsorption technology for water desalination has been investigated showing the potential of using low temperature waste heat (50-85oC) thus reducing energy consumption and CO2 emissions. This work mathematically compares the performance of an adsorption cycle that produces two useful effects namely, fresh water and cooling using two different adsorbents, silica-gel and an advanced zeolite material AQSOA-ZO2, produced by Mitsubishi plastics. It was found that at low chilled water temperatures, typically below 20oC, the AQSOA-Z02 is more efficient than silica-gel as the cycle can produce 5.8 m3 of fresh water per day and 50.1 Rton of cooling per tonne of AQSOA-ZO2. Above 20oC silica-gel is still better as the cycle production reaches 8.4 m3 per day and 62.4 Rton per tonne of silica-gel. These results show the potential of using the AQSOA-Z02 at low chilled water temperature for water desalination and cooling applications.

Keywords: Adsorption, desalination, refrigeration, seawater.

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Authors: Teerapun Saeheaw, Nivit Charoenchai, Wichai Chattinnawat

Abstract:

Simulation model is an easy way to build up models to represent real life scenarios, to identify bottlenecks and to enhance system performance. Using a valid simulation model may give several advantages in creating better manufacturing design in order to improve the system performances. This paper presents result of implementing a simulation model to design hard disk drive manufacturing process by applying line balancing to improve both productivity and quality of hard disk drive process. The line balance efficiency showed 86% decrease in work in process, output was increased by an average of 80%, average time in the system was decreased 86% and waiting time was decreased 90%.

Keywords: line balancing, arena, hard disk drive process, simulation, work in process (WIP)

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Authors: Kevin Fong-Rey Liu, Cheng-Wu Chen, Ken Yeh, Han-Hsi Liang

Abstract:

Environmental impact assessment (EIA) is a procedure tool of environmental management for identifying, predicting, evaluating and mitigating the adverse effects of development proposals. EIA reports usually analyze how the amounts or concentrations of pollutants obey the relevant standards. Actually, many analytical tools can deepen the analysis of environmental impacts in EIA reports, such as life cycle assessment (LCA) and environmental risk assessment (ERA). Life cycle impact assessment (LCIA) is one of steps in LCA to introduce the causal relationships among environmental hazards and damage. Incorporating the LCIA concept into ERA as an integrated tool for EIA can extend the focus of the regulatory compliance of environmental impacts to determine of the significance of environmental impacts. Sometimes, when using integrated tools, it is necessary to consider fuzzy situations due to insufficient information; therefore, ERA should be generalized to fuzzy risk assessment (FRA). Finally, the use of the proposed methodology is demonstrated through the study case of the expansion plan of the world-s largest plastics processing factory.

Keywords: Fuzzy risk analysis, life cycle impact assessment, fuzzy logic, environmental impact assessment

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Authors: G. Papageorgiou, A. Hadjis

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This paper examines the problem of strategic management in highly turbulent dynamic business environmental conditions. As shown the high complexity of the problem can be managed with the use of System Dynamics Models and Computer Simulation in obtaining insights, and thorough understanding of the interdependencies between the organizational structure and the business environmental elements, so that effective product –market strategies can be designed. Simulation reveals the underlying forces that hold together the structure of an organizational system in relation to its environment. Such knowledge will contribute to the avoidance of fundamental planning errors and enable appropriate proactive well focused action.

Keywords: Strategic Management, System Dynamics, Modelingand Simulation, Strategic Planning, Organizational Dynamics

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Authors: Reza Maddahian, Bijan Farhanieh, Simin Dokht Saemi

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In this research the separation efficiency of deoiling hydrocyclone is evaluated using three-dimensional simulation of multiphase flow based on Eulerian-Eulerian finite volume method. The mixture approach of Reynolds Stress Model is also employed to capture the features of turbulent multiphase swirling flow. The obtained separation efficiency of Colman's design is compared with available experimental data and showed that the separation curve of deoiling hydrocyclones can be predicted using numerical simulation.

Keywords: Deoiling hydrocyclone, Eulerian-Eulerian Model, Numerical simulation, Separation efficiency, Reynolds Stress Model

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Authors: Chau-Kuang Chen, John Hughes, Jr., A. Dexter Samuels

Abstract:

The prediction models for the United States Medical Licensure Examination (USMLE) Steps 1 and 2 performances were constructed by the Monte Carlo simulation modeling approach via linear regression. The purpose of this study was to build robust simulation models to accurately identify the most important predictors and yield the valid range estimations of the Steps 1 and 2 scores. The application of simulation modeling approach was deemed an effective way in predicting student performances on licensure examinations. Also, sensitivity analysis (a/k/a what-if analysis) in the simulation models was used to predict the magnitudes of Steps 1 and 2 affected by changes in the National Board of Medical Examiners (NBME) Basic Science Subject Board scores. In addition, the study results indicated that the Medical College Admission Test (MCAT) Verbal Reasoning score and Step 1 score were significant predictors of the Step 2 performance. Hence, institutions could screen qualified student applicants for interviews and document the effectiveness of basic science education program based on the simulation results.

Keywords: Prediction Model, Sensitivity Analysis, Simulation Method, USMLE.

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