Search results for: climatic risk management
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 3578

Search results for: climatic risk management

3308 Comparative Analysis of Commercial Property and Stock-Market Investments in Nigeria

Authors: Bello Nurudeen Akinsola

Abstract:

The study analyzed the risk and returns of commercial-property in Southwestern Nigeria and selected stocksmarket investment between 2000 and 2009; compared the inflation hedging characteristics and diversification potentials of investing in commercial-property and selected stock- market investment. Primary data were collected on characteristics, rental and capital values of commercial- properties from their property managers through the use of questionnaire. Secondary data on stock prices and dividends on banking, insurance and conglomerates sectors were sourced from the Nigerian Stock Exchange (2000-2009). The result showed that average return on all the selected stock- investments was higher than that of commercial-property. As regards risk, commercial-property indicated lower risk, compared to stocks. Also the stock-investment had better inflation hedging capacity than commercial-properties; combination of both had diversification potentials. The study concluded that stock-market investment offered attractive higher return than commercial-property although with higher risk and there could be diversification benefits in combining commercial-property with stock- investment.

Keywords: Commercial-Property, Return, Risk, Stock Market

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3307 Estimating Affected Croplands and Potential Crop Yield Loss of an Individual Farmer Due to Floods

Authors: Shima Nabinejad, Holger Schüttrumpf

Abstract:

Farmers who are living in flood-prone areas such as coasts are exposed to storm surges increased due to climate change. Crop cultivation is the most important economic activity of farmers, and in the time of flooding, agricultural lands are subject to inundation. Additionally, overflow saline water causes more severe damage outcomes than riverine flooding. Agricultural crops are more vulnerable to salinity than other land uses for which the economic damages may continue for a number of years even after flooding and affect farmers’ decision-making for the following year. Therefore, it is essential to assess what extent the agricultural areas are flooded and how much the associated flood damage to each individual farmer is. To address these questions, we integrated farmers’ decision-making at farm-scale with flood risk management. The integrated model includes identification of hazard scenarios, failure analysis of structural measures, derivation of hydraulic parameters for the inundated areas and analysis of the economic damages experienced by each farmer. The present study has two aims; firstly, it attempts to investigate the flooded cropland and potential crop damages for the whole area. Secondly, it compares them among farmers’ field for three flood scenarios, which differ in breach locations of the flood protection structure. To achieve its goal, the spatial distribution of fields and cultivated crops of farmers were fed into the flood risk model, and a 100-year storm surge hydrograph was selected as the flood event. The study area was Pellworm Island that is located in the German Wadden Sea National Park and surrounded by North Sea. Due to high salt content in seawater of North Sea, crops cultivated in the agricultural areas of Pellworm Island are 100% destroyed by storm surges which were taken into account in developing of depth-damage curve for analysis of consequences. As a result, inundated croplands and economic damages to crops were estimated in the whole Island which was further compared for six selected farmers under three flood scenarios. The results demonstrate the significance and the flexibility of the proposed model in flood risk assessment of flood-prone areas by integrating flood risk management and decision-making.

Keywords: Crop damages, flood risk analysis, individual farmer, inundated cropland, Pellworm Island, storm surges.

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3306 Analysis of Possible Draught Size of Container Vessels on the Lower Danube

Authors: Todor Bačkalić, Marinko Maslarić, Milosav Georgijević, Sanja Bojić

Abstract:

Presented article outlines a rationale, why it is necessary to develop competence about infrastructure risk in water transport. Climate changes are evident and require special attention and global monitoring. Current risk assessment methods for Inland waterway transport just consider some dramatic events. We present a new method for the assessment of risk and vulnerability of inland waterway transport where river depth represents a crucial part. The analysis of water level changes in the lower Danube was done for two significant periods (1965-1979 and 1998-2012).

Keywords: Container ship, draught, probability, the Danube.

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3305 Maternal Smoking and Risk of Childhood Overweight and Obesity: A Meta-Analysis

Authors: Martina Kanciruk, Jac W. Andrews, Tyrone Donnon

Abstract:

The purpose of this study was to determine the significance of maternal smoking for the development of childhood overweight and/or obesity. Accordingly, a systematic literature review of English-language studies published from 1980 to 2012 using the following data bases: MEDLINE, PsychINFO, Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, and Dissertation Abstracts International was conducted. The following terms were used in the search: pregnancy, overweight, obesity, smoking, parents, childhood, risk factors. Eighteen studies of maternal smoking during pregnancy and obesity conducted in Europe, Asia, North America, and South America met the inclusion criteria. A meta-analysis of these studies indicated that maternal smoking during pregnancy is a significant risk factor for overweight and obesity; mothers who smoke during pregnancy are at a greater risk for developing obesity or overweight; the quantity of cigarettes consumed by the mother during pregnancy influenced the odds of offspring overweight and/or obesity. In addition, the results from moderator analyses suggest that part of the heterogeneity discovered between the studies can be explained by the region of world that the study occurred in and the age of the child at the time of weight assessment.

Keywords: Childhood obesity, overweight, smoking, parents, risk factors.

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3304 Using Analytic Hierarchy Process as a Decision-Making Tool in Project Portfolio Management

Authors: D. Danesh, M. J. Ryan, A. Abbasi

Abstract:

Project Portfolio Management (PPM) is an essential component of an organisation’s strategic procedures, which requires attention of several factors to envisage a range of long-term outcomes to support strategic project portfolio decisions. To evaluate overall efficiency at the portfolio level, it is essential to identify the functionality of specific projects as well as to aggregate those findings in a mathematically meaningful manner that indicates the strategic significance of the associated projects at a number of levels of abstraction. PPM success is directly associated with the quality of decisions made and poor judgment increases portfolio costs. Hence, various Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) techniques have been designed and employed to support the decision-making functions. This paper reviews possible options to enhance the decision-making outcomes in organisational portfolio management processes using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) both from academic and practical perspectives and will examine the usability, certainty and quality of the technique. The results of the study will also provide insight into the technical risk associated with current decision-making model to underpin initiative tracking and strategic portfolio management.

Keywords: Analytic hierarchy process, decision support systems, multi-criteria decision-making, project portfolio management.

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3303 Determining Occurrence in FMEA Using Hazard Function

Authors: Hazem J. Smadi

Abstract:

FMEA has been used for several years and proved its efficiency for system’s risk analysis due to failures. Risk priority number found in FMEA is used to rank failure modes that may occur in a system. There are some guidelines in the literature to assign the values of FMEA components known as Severity, Occurrence and Detection. This paper propose a method to assign the value for occurrence in more realistic manner representing the state of the system under study rather than depending totally on the experience of the analyst. This method uses the hazard function of a system to determine the value of occurrence depending on the behavior of the hazard being constant, increasing or decreasing.

Keywords: FMEA, Hazard Function, Risk Priority Number.

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3302 Ranking - Convex Risk Minimization

Authors: Wojciech Rejchel

Abstract:

The problem of ranking (rank regression) has become popular in the machine learning community. This theory relates to problems, in which one has to predict (guess) the order between objects on the basis of vectors describing their observed features. In many ranking algorithms a convex loss function is used instead of the 0-1 loss. It makes these procedures computationally efficient. Hence, convex risk minimizers and their statistical properties are investigated in this paper. Fast rates of convergence are obtained under conditions, that look similarly to the ones from the classification theory. Methods used in this paper come from the theory of U-processes as well as empirical processes.

Keywords: Convex loss function, empirical risk minimization, empirical process, U-process, boosting, euclidean family.

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3301 An Effective Decision-Making Strategy Based on Multi-Objective Optimization for Commercial Vehicles in Highway Scenarios

Authors: Weiming Hu, Xu Li, Xiaonan Li, Zhong Xu, Li Yuan, Xuan Dong

Abstract:

Maneuver decision-making plays a critical role in high-performance intelligent driving. This paper proposes a risk assessment-based decision-making network (RADMN) to address the problem of driving strategy for the commercial vehicle. RADMN integrates two networks, aiming at identifying the risk degree of collision and rollover and providing decisions to ensure the effectiveness and reliability of driving strategy. In the risk assessment module, risk degrees of the backward collision, forward collision and rollover are quantified for hazard recognition. In the decision module, a deep reinforcement learning based on multi-objective optimization (DRL-MOO) algorithm is designed, which comprehensively considers the risk degree and motion states of each traffic participant. To evaluate the performance of the proposed framework, Prescan/Simulink joint simulation was conducted in highway scenarios. Experimental results validate the effectiveness and reliability of the proposed RADMN. The output driving strategy can guarantee the safety and provide key technical support for the realization of autonomous driving of commercial vehicles.

Keywords: Decision-making strategy, risk assessment, multi-objective optimization, commercial vehicle.

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3300 Methods for Analyzing the Energy Efficiencyand Cost Effectiveness of Evaporative Cooling Air Conditioning

Authors: A Fouda, Z. Melikyan

Abstract:

Air conditioning systems of houses consume large quantity of electricity. To reducing energy consumption for air conditioning purposes it is becoming attractive the use of evaporative cooling air conditioning which is less energy consuming compared to air chillers. But, it is obvious that higher energy efficiency of evaporative cooling is not enough to judge whether evaporative cooling economically is competitive with other types of cooling systems. To proving the higher energy efficiency and cost effectiveness of the evaporative cooling competitive analysis of various types of cooling system should be accomplished. For noted purpose optimization mathematical model for each system should be composed based on system approach analysis. In this paper different types of evaporative cooling-heating systems are discussed and methods for increasing their energy efficiency and as well as determining of their design parameters are developed. The optimization mathematical models for each of them are composed with help of which least specific costs for each of them are reviled. The comparison of specific costs proved that the most efficient and cost effective is considered the “direct evaporating" system if it is applicable for given climatic conditions. Next more universal and applicable for many climatic conditions system providing least cost of heating and cooling is considered the “direct evaporating" system.

Keywords: air, conditioning, system, evaporative cooling, mathematical model, optimization, thermoeconomic.

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3299 Data Envelopment Analysis under Uncertainty and Risk

Authors: P. Beraldi, M. E. Bruni

Abstract:

Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) is one of the most widely used technique for evaluating the relative efficiency of a set of homogeneous decision making units. Traditionally, it assumes that input and output variables are known in advance, ignoring the critical issue of data uncertainty. In this paper, we deal with the problem of efficiency evaluation under uncertain conditions by adopting the general framework of the stochastic programming. We assume that output parameters are represented by discretely distributed random variables and we propose two different models defined according to a neutral and risk-averse perspective. The models have been validated by considering a real case study concerning the evaluation of the technical efficiency of a sample of individual firms operating in the Italian leather manufacturing industry. Our findings show the validity of the proposed approach as ex-ante evaluation technique by providing the decision maker with useful insights depending on his risk aversion degree.

Keywords: DEA, Stochastic Programming, Ex-ante evaluation technique, Conditional Value at Risk.

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3298 Research on Rail Safety Security System

Authors: Cai Guoqiang, Jia Limin, Zhou Liming, Liang yu, Li xi

Abstract:

This paper analysis the integrated use of safety monitoring with the domestic and international latest research on rail safety protection system, and focus on the implementation of an organic whole system, with the monitoring and early warning, risk assessment, predictive control and emergency rescue system. The system framework, contents and system structure of Security system is proposed completely. It-s pointed out that the Security system is a negative feedback system composed of by safety monitoring and warning system, risk assessment and emergency rescue system. Safety monitoring and warning system focus on the monitoring target monitoring, early warning, tracking, integration of decision-making, for objective and subjective risks factors. Risk assessment system analysis the occurrence of a major Security risk mechanism, determines the standard of the future short, medium and long term safety conditions, and give prop for development of safety indicators, accident analysis and safety standards. Emergency rescue system is with the goal of rapid and effective rescue work for accident, to minimize casualties and property losses.

Keywords: rail safety protection, monitoring and early warning, risk assessment, emergency rescue.

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3297 Communication and Human Resource Management and its Compliance with Culture

Authors: D. Charvatova, C.G. van der Veer

Abstract:

According to the conception of personnel management, human resource management requires efficient use of human resources. This is ensured by various activities directed towards the area of management. Among these activities there are for example the recruitment of employees, development, strengthening of relations, mutual inspiring, implementation of correct working processes and systems used by individuals or groups.

Keywords: Communication, company, customers, employees, human resource management, manager, organizational structure, personnel management, strategic management.

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3296 Prevalence and Associated Risk Factors of Eimeria in Sheep of Punjab, Pakistan

Authors: M.N. Khan, T. Rehman, Z Iqbal, M.S Sajid, M Ahmad, M Riaz

Abstract:

A cross-sectional study was carried out to determine the prevalence, species characterization and associated risk factors with Eimeria (E.) in sheep of district Toba Tek Singh from April, 2009 to March, 2010. Of the total 486 faecal samples examined for Eimeria, 209 (43%) were found infected with five species of Eimeria. Amongst the identified species of Eimeria, E. ovinoidalis was the commonest one (48.32%), followed in order by E. ahsata, E. intricata, E. parva and E. faurei with prevalence of 45.45, 28.71, 24.40 and 19.14 percent respectively. Peak prevalence was observed in August. Wet season (rainy and post-rainy) was found to be favourable for Eimeria infection. Lambs had significantly higher prevalence (P < 0.05) of Eimeria than adults. Similarly higher prevalence of Eimeria was observed in female as compared to male. Among management and husbandry practices; watering system, housing system, floor type and herd size strongly influenced the prevalence of Eimeria. Coccidiosis was more prevalent in closed housing system, non-cemented floor type, pond watered animals and larger herds (P < 0.05) as compared to open housing system, partially cemented floor type, tap watered animals and smaller herds respectively. Feeding system, breed and body condition of animals were not found as risk factors (P>0.05) influencing prevalence of Eimeria.

Keywords: Eimeria, Pakistan prevalence, sheep.

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3295 Minimizing Risk Costs through Optimal Responses in NPD Projects

Authors: Chan-Sik Kim, Jong-Seong Kim, Se Won Lee, Hoo-Gon Choi

Abstract:

In rapidly changing market environment, firms are investing a lot of time and resources into new product development (NPD) projects to make profit and to obtain competitive advantage. However, failure rate of NPD projects is becoming high due to various internal and external risks which hinder successful NPD projects. To reduce the failure rate, it is critical that risks have to be managed effectively and efficiently through good strategy, and treated by optimal responses to minimize risk cost. Four strategies are adopted to handle the risks in this study. The optimal responses are characterized by high reduction of risk costs with high efficiency. This study suggests a framework to decide the optimal responses considering the core risks, risk costs, response efficiency and response costs for successful NPD projects. Both binary particles warm optimization (BPSO) and multi-objective particle swarm optimization (MOPSO) methods are mainly used in the framework. Although several limitations exist in use for real industries, the frame work shows good strength for handling the risks with highly scientific ways through an example.

Keywords: NPD projects, risk cost, strategy, optimal responses, Particle Swarm Optimization.

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3294 Investigating the Efficacy of HIV/AIDS Psycho-Education and Behavioural Skills Training in Reducing Sexual Risk Behaviours in a Trucking Population in Nigeria

Authors: Abiodun M. Lawal, Benjamin O. Olley

Abstract:

Long Distance Truck Drivers (LDTDs) have been found to be a high risk group in the spread of HIV/AIDS globally; perhaps, due to their high Sexual Risk Behaviours (SRBs). Interventions for reducing SRBs in trucking population have not been fully exploited. A quasi-experimental control group pretest-posttest design was used to assess the efficacy of psycho-education and behavioural skills training in reducing SRBs among LDTDs. Sixteen drivers rivers were randomly assigned into either experimental or control groups using balloting technique. Questionnaire was used as an instrument for data collection. Repeated measures t-test and independent t-test were used to test hypotheses. Intervention had significant effect on the SRBs among LDTDs at post-test (t{7}= 6.01, p<.01) and at follow up (t{7} = 6.42, p<.01). No significant difference in sexual risk behaviour of LDTDs at post-test and at follow-up stage. Similarly, intervention had significant effects on sexual risk behaviour at post-test (t {14} = - 4.69, p<.05) and at follow-up (t {14} = -9.56, p<.05) respectively. At post-test and follow-up stages, drivers in experimental group reported reduced SRBs than those in control group. Drivers in experimental group reported lower sexual risk behaviour a week after intervention as well as at three months follow-up than those in control group. It is concluded that HIV/AIDS preventive intervention that provides the necessary informational and behavioural skills content can significantly impact long distance truck drivers’ sexual risk behaviours.

Keywords: HIV/AIDS interventions, Long distance truck drivers, Nigeria, Sexual risk behaviours.

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3293 Sanitary Measures in Piggeries, Awareness and Risk Factors of African Swine Fever in Benue State, Nigeria

Authors: A. Asambe

Abstract:

A study was conducted to determine the level of compliance with sanitary measures in piggeries, and awareness and risk factors of African swine fever in Benue State, Nigeria. Questionnaires were distributed to 74 respondents consisting of piggery owners and attendants in different piggeries across 12 LGAs to collect data for this study. Sanitary measures in piggeries were observed to be generally very poor, though respondents admitted being aware of ASF. Piggeries located within a 1 km radius of a slaughter slab (OR=9.2, 95% CI - 3.0-28.8), piggeries near refuse dump sites (OR=3.0, 95% CI - 1.0-9.5) and piggeries where farm workers wear their work clothes outside of the piggery premises (OR=0.2, 95% CI - 0.1-0.7) showed higher chances of ASFV infection and were significantly associated (p < 0.0001), (p < 0.05) and (p < 0.01), and were identified as potential risk factors. The study concluded that pigs in Benue State are still at risk of an ASF outbreak. Proper sanitary and hygienic practices is advocated and emphasized in piggeries, while routine surveillance for ASFV antibodies in pigs in Benue State is strongly recommended to provide a reliable reference data base to plan for the prevention of any devastating ASF outbreak.

Keywords: African swine fever, awareness, piggery, risk factors, sanitary measures.

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3292 Aircraft Selection Using Preference Optimization Programming (POP)

Authors: C. Ardil

Abstract:

A multiple-criteria decision support system is proposed for the best aircraft selection decision. Various strategic, economic, environmental, and risk-related factors can directly or indirectly influence this choice, and they should be taken into account in the decision-making process. The paper suggests a multiple-criteria analysis to aid in the airline management's decision-making process when choosing an appropriate aircraft. In terms of the suggested approach, an integrated entropic preference optimization programming (POP) for fleet modeling risk analysis is applied. The findings of the study of multiple criteria analysis indicate that the A321(neo) aircraft type is the best alternative in this particular optimization instance. The proposed methodology can be applied to other complex engineering problems involving multiple criteria analysis.

Keywords: Aircraft selection, decision making, multiple criteria decision making, preference optimization programming, POP, entropic weight method, TOPSIS, WSM, WPM

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3291 Conflation Methodology Applied to Flood Recovery

Authors: E. L. Suarez, D. E. Meeroff, Y. Yong

Abstract:

Current flooding risk modeling focuses on resilience, defined as the probability of recovery from a severe flooding event. However, the long-term damage to property and well-being by nuisance flooding and its long-term effects on communities are not typically included in risk assessments. An approach was developed to address the probability of recovering from a severe flooding event combined with the probability of community performance during a nuisance event. A consolidated model, namely the conflation flooding recovery (&FR) model, evaluates risk-coping mitigation strategies for communities based on the recovery time from catastrophic events, such as hurricanes or extreme surges, and from everyday nuisance flooding events. The &FR model assesses the variation contribution of each independent input and generates a weighted output that favors the distribution with minimum variation. This approach is especially useful if the input distributions have dissimilar variances. The &FR is defined as a single distribution resulting from the product of the individual probability density functions. The resulting conflated distribution resides between the parent distributions, and it infers the recovery time required by a community to return to basic functions, such as power, utilities, transportation, and civil order, after a flooding event. The &FR model is more accurate than averaging individual observations before calculating the mean and variance or averaging the probabilities evaluated at the input values, which assigns the same weighted variation to each input distribution. The main disadvantage of these traditional methods is that the resulting measure of central tendency is exactly equal to the average of the input distribution’s means without the additional information provided by each individual distribution variance. When dealing with exponential distributions, such as resilience from severe flooding events and from nuisance flooding events, conflation results are equivalent to the weighted least squares method or best linear unbiased estimation. The combination of severe flooding risk with nuisance flooding improves flood risk management for highly populated coastal communities, such as in South Florida, USA, and provides a method to estimate community flood recovery time more accurately from two different sources, severe flooding events and nuisance flooding events.

Keywords: Community resilience, conflation, flood risk, nuisance flooding.

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3290 The Significance of Cultural Risks for Western Consultants Executing Gulf Cooperation Council Megaprojects

Authors: Alan Walsh, Peter Walker

Abstract:

Differences in commercial, professional and personal cultural traditions between western consultants and project sponsors in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) region are potentially significant in the workplace, and this can impact on project outcomes. These cultural differences can, for example, result in conflict amongst senior managers, which can negatively impact the megaproject. New entrants to the GCC often experience ‘culture shock’ as they attempt to integrate into their unfamiliar environments. Megaprojects are unique ventures with individual project characteristics, which need to be considered when managing their associated risks. Megaproject research to date has mostly ignored the significance of the absence of cultural congruence in the GCC, which is surprising considering that there are large volumes of megaprojects in various stages of construction in the GCC. An initial step to dealing with cultural issues is to acknowledge culture as a significant risk factor (SRF). This paper seeks to understand the criticality for western consultants to address these risks. It considers the cultural barriers that exist between GCC sponsors and western consultants and examines the cultural distance between the key actors. Initial findings suggest the presence to a certain extent of ethnocentricity. Other cultural clashes arise out of a lack of appreciation of the customs, practices and traditions of ‘the Other’, such as the need for avoiding public humiliation and the hierarchal significance rankings. The concept and significance of cultural shock as part of the integration process for new arrivals are considered. Culture shock describes the state of anxiety and frustration resulting from the immersion in a culture distinctly different from one's own. There are potentially substantial project risks associated with underestimating the process of cultural integration. This paper examines two distinct but intertwined issues: the societal and professional culture differences associated with expatriate assignments. A case study examines the cultural congruences between GCC sponsors and American, British and German consultants, over a ten-year cycle. This provides indicators as to which nationalities encountered the most profound cultural issues and the nature of these. GCC megaprojects are typically intensive fast track demanding ventures, where consultant turnover is high. The study finds that building trust-filled relationships is key to successful project team integration and therefore, to successful megaproject execution. Findings indicate that both professional and social inclusion processes have steep learning curves. Traditional risk management practice is to approach any uncertainty in a structured way to mitigate the potential impact on project outcomes. This research highlights cultural risk as a significant factor in the management of GCC megaprojects. These risks arising from high staff turnover typically include loss of project knowledge, delays to the project, cost and disruption in replacing staff. This paper calls for cultural risk to be recognised as an SRF, as the first step to developing risk management strategies, and to reduce staff turnover for western consultants in GCC megaprojects.

Keywords: Western consultants in megaprojects, national culture impacts on GCC Megaprojects, significant risk factors in megaprojects, professional culture in megaprojects.

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3289 Health Risk Assessment of Heavy Metals in Clarias gariepinus (Burchell, 1822) from Fish Mongers within Akure Metropolis, Ondo State, Nigeria

Authors: O. O. Olawusi-Peters, K. I. Adejugbagbe

Abstract:

The concentration of heavy metal (Cd, Pb, Fe, Zn, Cu) in Clarias gariepinus collected from fish markets; Fanibi (Station I) and Fiwasaye (Station II) in Akure metropolis, Ondo state, Nigeria were investigated to ascertain the safety for the consumers. 60 samples were collected from the two markets in three batches (I, II, III) for a period of six months and analyzed for heavy metals in the gills and muscles of the fish. Also, the Health Risk Index (HRI) was used to determine the health risk of these metals to the consumer. The results showed that the investigated metal concentration was higher in station I than station II, except Pb having higher concentration in station II than station I. In both stations, the highest concentration of Fe was recorded in the gills (12.60 ± 1.51; 6.94 ± 1.38) and muscles (3.72 ± 0.09; 3.86 ± 0.33) of samples in batch I. Also, the HRI revealed that consumption of Clarias gariepinus from these study areas did not pose any health risk (HRI < 1). In addition, concentrations of the heavy metals were all below the permissible limits recommended by FAO/WHO.

Keywords: Health risk index, heavy metals, Clarias gariepinus, Akure metropolis, fish monger.

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3288 Solid Waste Management in Adama, Ethiopia: Aspects and Challenges

Authors: Mengist Hailemariam, Assegid Ajeme

Abstract:

The ever increasing amount of solid waste (SW) generated which is exacerbated by lack of proper waste management system is of growing concern worldwide and in major cities in developing countries due to its social, economic and environmental implications. This study attempts to describe the aspects of solid waste management (SWM) in Adama, one of the fast urbanizing cities in Ethiopia, and highlights the challenges thereof. Data were gathered through interview supplemented by field observation and self-administered questionnaire. Then, the data were analyzed using the Statistical Package for Social Science (SPSS) software. In addition, secondary data were gathered from documents. Findings revealed that the current SWM practice couldn’t cope with the fast urbanizing needs and the rapid population growth exhibited by the city. Besides, major factors contributing to the inefficient system were identified. The study would provide practical insights to decision makers in developing a sustainable SWM system leading to minimized risk in the city.

Keywords: Adama, Aspects and challenges, Ethiopia, Solid waste management.

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3287 Scientometrics Analysis of Food Supply Chain Risk Assessment Literature Based on Web of Science Record 1996-2014

Authors: Mohsen Shirani, Shadi Asadzandi, Micaela Demichela

Abstract:

This paper presents the results of a study to assess crucial aspects and the strength of the scientific basis of a typically interdisciplinary, applied field: food supply chain risk assessment research. Our approach is based on an advanced scientometrics analysis that is a quantitative study of the disciplines of science based on published literature to measure interdisciplinary. This paper aims to describe the quantity and quality of the publication trends in food supply chain risk assessment. The publication under study was composed of 266 articles from database web of science. The results were analyzed based on date of publication, type of document, language of the documents, source of publications, subject areas, authors and their affiliations, and the countries involved in developing the articles.

Keywords: Food Supply Chain, Risk Assessment, Scientometrics, Web of science.

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3286 A New Gateway for Rheumatoid Arthritis: COXIBs with an Improved Cardiovascular Profile

Authors: M. Hoxha, V. Capra, C. Buccellati, A. Sala, C. Cena, R. Fruttero, M. Bertinaria, G. E. Rovati

Abstract:

Today COXIBs are used in the treatment of arthritis and many other painful conditions in selected patients with high gastrointestinal risk and low cardiovascular (CV) risk. Previously, we have identified an unexpected mechanism of action of a traditional non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drug (NSAID) (diclofenac) and a specific inhibitor of cyclooxygenase-2 (COXIB) (lumiracoxib) demonstrating that they possess weak competitive antagonism at the thromboxane receptor (TP). We hypothesize that modifying the structure of a known COXIB so that it becomes also a more potent TP antagonist will preserve the anti-inflammatory and gastrointestinal safety typical of COXIBs and prevent the CV risk associated with long term therapy.

Keywords: Cyclooxygenase, inflammation, lumiracoxib, thromboxane A2.

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3285 Urban Form, Heritage, and Disaster Prevention: What Do They Have in Common?

Authors: Milton Montejano Castillo, Tarsicio Pastrana Salcedo

Abstract:

Based on the hypothesis that disaster risk is constructed socially and historically, this article shows the importance of keeping alive the historical memory of disaster by means of architectural and urban heritage conservation. This is illustrated with three examples of Latin American World Heritage cities, where disasters like floods and earthquakes have shaped urban form. Therefore, the study of urban form or "Urban Morphology" is proposed as a tool to understand and analyze urban transformations with the documentation of the occurrence of disasters. Lessons learned from such cities may be useful to reduce disasters risk in contemporary built environments.

Keywords: Conservation, disaster risk reduction, urban morphology, world heritage.

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3284 An Investigation into the Role of Market Beta in Asset Pricing: Evidence from the Romanian Stock Market

Authors: Ioan Popa, Radu Lupu, Cristiana Tudor

Abstract:

In this paper, we apply the FM methodology to the cross-section of Romanian-listed common stocks and investigate the explanatory power of market beta on the cross-section of commons stock returns from Bucharest Stock Exchange. Various assumptions are empirically tested, such us linearity, market efficiency, the “no systematic effect of non-beta risk" hypothesis or the positive expected risk-return trade-off hypothesis. We find that the Romanian stock market shows the same properties as the other emerging markets in terms of efficiency and significance of the linear riskreturn models. Our analysis included weekly returns from January 2002 until May 2010 and the portfolio formation, estimation and testing was performed in a rolling manner using 51 observations (one year) for each stage of the analysis.

Keywords: Bucharest Stock Exchange, Fama-Macbeth methodology, systematic risk, non-linear risk-return dependence.

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3283 Intelligent Path Planning for Rescue Robot

Authors: Sohrab Khanmohammadi, Raana Soltani Zarrin

Abstract:

In this paper, a heuristic method for simultaneous rescue robot path-planning and mission scheduling is introduced based on project management techniques, multi criteria decision making and artificial potential fields path-planning. Groups of injured people are trapped in a disastrous situation. These people are categorized into several groups based on the severity of their situation. A rescue robot, whose ultimate objective is reaching injured groups and providing preliminary aid for them through a path with minimum risk, has to perform certain tasks on its way towards targets before the arrival of rescue team. A decision value is assigned to each target based on the whole degree of satisfaction of the criteria and duties of the robot toward the target and the importance of rescuing each target based on their category and the number of injured people. The resulted decision value defines the strength of the attractive potential field of each target. Dangerous environmental parameters are defined as obstacles whose risk determines the strength of the repulsive potential field of each obstacle. Moreover, negative and positive energies are assigned to the targets and obstacles, which are variable with respects to the factors involved. The simulation results show that the generated path for two cases studies with certain differences in environmental conditions and other risk factors differ considerably.

Keywords: Artificial potential field, GERT, path planning

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3282 Risk Assessment of Musculoskeletal Disorders in an Electronic Components Company

Authors: Sara Bragança, Eric Costa

Abstract:

The work presented in this paper was performed for a workstation of an assembly section in a company that manufactures radio modules and air conditioning for cars. After performing a workstation analysis and a questionnaire to the operators it was possible to understand the need to investigate the risk of musculoskeletal disorders originated from both the handling of loads as the incorrect dimensioning of the workstation. Regarding the handling of loads the NIOSH Equation was used and it was verified that there was no risk of musculoskeletal disorders. As the operators expressed their lack of satisfaction regarding back pains due to posture adopted they were established the appropriate dimensions (to satisfy 97.5% of the population and using the table of anthropometric data of the Portuguese population) for the workstation and it was proposed the availability of a chair for the workers.

Keywords: Anthropometry, Musculoskeletal disorders, NIOSH Equation.

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3281 Assessment of the Vulnerability and Risk of Climate Change on Water Supply and Demand in Taijiang Area

Authors: Yu-Chen Lin, Tzong-Yeang Lee, Hung-Chih Shih

Abstract:

The development of sustainable utilization water resources is crucial. The ecological environment and water resources systems form the foundation of the existence and development of the social economy. The urban ecological support system depends on these resources as well. This research studies the vulnerability, criticality, and risk of climate change on water supply and demand in the main administrative district of the Taijiang Area (Tainan City). Based on the two situations set in this paper and various factors (indexes), this research adopts two kinds of weights (equal and AHP) to conduct the calculation and establish the water supply and demand risk map for the target year 2039. According to the risk analysis result, which is based on equal weight, only one district belongs to a high-grade district (Grade 4). Based on the AHP weight, 16 districts belong to a high-grade or higher-grade district (Grades 4 and 5), and from among them, two districts belong to the highest grade (Grade 5). These results show that the risk level of water supply and demand in cities is higher than that in towns. The government generally gives more attention to the adjustment strategy in the “cities." However, it should also provide proper adjustment strategies for the “towns" to be able to cope with the risks of water supply and demand.

Keywords: Climate change, risk, vulnerability, water supply and demand.

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3280 Performance of Flat Plate Loop Heat Pipe for Thermal Management of Lithium-Ion Battery in Electric Vehicle Application

Authors: Bambang Ariantara, Nandy Putra, Rangga Aji Pamungkas

Abstract:

The development of electric vehicle batteries have resulted in very high energy density lithium-ion batteries. However, this progress is accompanied by the risk of thermal runaway, which can result in serious accidents. Heat pipes are heat exchangers that are suitable to be applied in electric vehicle battery thermal management for their lightweight, compact size and do not require external power supply. This paper aims to examine experimentally a Flat Plate Loop Heat Pipe (FPLHP) performance as a heat exchanger in thermal management system of lithium-ion battery for electric vehicle application. The heat generation of the battery was simulated using a cartridge heater. Stainless steel screen mesh was used as the capillary wick. Distilled water, alcohol and acetone were used as working fluids with a filling ratio of 60%. It was found that acetone gives the best performance that produces thermal resistance of 0.22 W/°C with 50°C evaporator temperature at heat flux load of 1.61 W/cm2.

Keywords: Electric vehicle, flat plate loop heat pipe, lithium-ion battery, thermal management system.

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3279 Quantitative Indicator of Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm Rupture Risk Based on its Geometric Parameters

Authors: Guillermo Vilalta, Félix Nieto, Carlos Vaquero, José A. Vilalta

Abstract:

Abdominal aortic aneurysms rupture (AAAs) is one of the main causes of death in the world. This is a very complex phenomenon that usually occurs “without previous warning". Currently, criteria to assess the aneurysm rupture risk (peak diameter and growth rate) can not be considered as reliable indicators. In a first approach, the main geometric parameters of aneurysms have been linked into five biomechanical factors. These are combined to obtain a dimensionless rupture risk index, RI(t), which has been validated preliminarily with a clinical case and others from literature. This quantitative indicator is easy to understand, it allows estimating the aneurysms rupture risks and it is expected to be able to identify the one in aneurysm whose peak diameter is less than the threshold value. Based on initial results, a broader study has begun with twelve patients from the Clinic Hospital of Valladolid-Spain, which are submitted to periodic follow-up examinations.

Keywords: AAA, rupture risk prediction, biomechanical factors, AAA geometric characterization.

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