Search results for: business process evolution
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 6567

Search results for: business process evolution

6567 Towards Incorporating Context Awareness into Business Process Management

Authors: Xiaohui Zhao, Shahan Mafuz

Abstract:

Context-aware technologies provide system applications with the awareness of environmental conditions, customer behaviours, object movements, etc. Further, with such capability system applications can be smart to intelligently adapt their responses to the changing conditions. In regard to business operations, this promises businesses that their business processes can run more intelligently, adaptively and flexibly, and thereby either improve customer experience, enhance reliability of service delivery, or lower operational cost, to make the business more competitive and sustainable. Aiming at realising such context-aware business process management, this paper firstly explores its potential benefit, and then identifies some gaps between the current business process management support and the expected. In addition, some preliminary solutions are also discussed in regard to context definition, rule-based process execution, run-time process evolution, etc. A framework is also presented to give a conceptual architecture of context-aware business process management system to guide system implementation.

Keywords: Business process adaptation, business process evolution, business process modelling, and context awareness.

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6566 Business Process Orientation: Case of Croatia

Authors: Ljubica Milanović Glavan

Abstract:

Because of the increasing business pressures, companies must be adaptable and flexible in order to withstand them. Inadequate business processes and low level of business process orientation, that in its core accentuates business processes as opposed to business functions and focuses on process performance and customer satisfaction, hider the ability to adapt to changing environment. It has been shown in previous studies that the companies which have reached higher business process maturity level consistently outperform those that have not reached them. The aim of this paper is to provide a basic understanding of business process orientation concept and business process maturity model. Besides that the paper presents the state of business process orientation in Croatia that has been captured with a study conducted in 2013. Based on the results some practical implications and guidelines for managers are given.

Keywords: Business process orientation, business process maturity, Croatia, maturity score.

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6565 Methods for Business Process Simulation Based on Petri Nets

Authors: K. Shoylekova, K. Grigorova

Abstract:

The Petri nets are the first standard for business process modeling. Most probably, it is one of the core reasons why all new standards created afterwards have to be so reformed as to reach the stage of mapping the new standard onto Petri nets. The paper presents a business process repository based on a universal database. The repository provides the possibility the data about a given process to be stored in three different ways. Business process repository is developed with regard to the reformation of a given model to a Petri net in order to be easily simulated. Two different techniques for business process simulation based on Petri nets - Yasper and Woflan are discussed. Their advantages and drawbacks are outlined. The way of simulating business process models, stored in the Business process repository is shown.

Keywords: Business process repository, Petri nets, Simulation, Woflan, Yasper.

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6564 Assessing Semantic Consistency of Business Process Models

Authors: Bernhard G. Humm, Janina Fengel

Abstract:

Business process modeling has become an accepted means for designing and describing business operations. Thereby, consistency of business process models, i.e., the absence of modeling faults, is of upmost importance to organizations. This paper presents a concept and subsequent implementation for detecting faults in business process models and for computing a measure of their consistency. It incorporates not only syntactic consistency but also semantic consistency, i.e., consistency regarding the meaning of model elements from a business perspective.

Keywords: Business process modeling, model analysis, semantic consistency, Semantic Web

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6563 Knowledge Acquisition for the Construction of an Evolving Ontology: Application to Augmented Surgery

Authors: Nora Taleb, Sellami Mokhtar, Michel Simonet

Abstract:

This work concerns the evolution and the maintenance of an ontological resource in relation with the evolution of the corpus of texts from which it had been built. The knowledge forming a text corpus, especially in dynamic domains, is in continuous evolution. When a change in the corpus occurs, the domain ontology must evolve accordingly. Most methods manage ontology evolution independently from the corpus from which it is built; in addition, they treat evolution just as a process of knowledge addition, not considering other knowledge changes. We propose a methodology for managing an evolving ontology from a text corpus that evolves over time, while preserving the consistency and the persistence of this ontology. Our methodology is based on the changes made on the corpus to reflect the evolution of the considered domain - augmented surgery in our case. In this context, the results of text mining techniques, as well as the ARCHONTE method slightly modified, are used to support the evolution process.

Keywords: Corpus, Evolution, Ontology

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6562 Conceptual Method for Flexible Business Process Modeling

Authors: Adla Bentellis, Zizette Boufaïda

Abstract:

Nowadays, the pace of business change is such that, increasingly, new functionality has to be realized and reliably installed in a matter of days, or even hours. Consequently, more and more business processes are prone to a continuous change. The objective of the research in progress is to use the MAP model, in a conceptual modeling method for flexible and adaptive business process. This method can be used to capture the flexibility dimensions of a business process; it takes inspiration from modularity concept in the object oriented paradigm to establish a hierarchical construction of the BP modeling. Its intent is to provide a flexible modeling that allows companies to quickly adapt their business processes.

Keywords: Business Process, Business process modeling, flexibility, MAP Model.

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6561 The Evolution of Quality Improvement Methodology in Malaysia-s IT Industry: The Past, Current and Future

Authors: Whee Yen Wong, Kim Yeow Tshai, Chan Wai Lee

Abstract:

There are various approaches to implement quality improvements. Organizations aim for a management standard which is capable of providing customers with quality assurance on their product/service via continuous process improvement. Carefully planned steps are necessary to ensure the right quality improvement methodology (QIM) and business operations are consistent, reliable and truly meet the customers' needs. This paper traces the evolution of QIM in Malaysia-s Information Technology (IT) industry in the past, current and future; and highlights some of the thought of researchers who contributed to the science and practice of quality, and identifies leading methodologies in use today. Some of the misconceptions and mistakes leading to quality system failures will also be examined and discussed. This paper aims to provide a general overview of different types of QIMs available for IT businesses in maximizing business advantages, enhancing product quality, improving process routines and increasing performance earnings.

Keywords: Evolution, Integrating and Aligning, Malaysia's Quality Improvement Methodology, Six Sigma Data Quality Management.

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6560 Bridging the Gap between Different Interfaces for Business Process Modeling

Authors: Katalina Grigorova, Kaloyan Mironov

Abstract:

The paper focuses on the benefits of business process modeling. Although this discipline is developing for many years, there is still necessity of creating new opportunities to meet the ever increasing users’ needs. Because one of these needs is related to the conversion of business process models from one standard to another, the authors have developed a converter between BPMN and EPC standards using workflow patterns as intermediate tool. Nowadays there are too many systems for business process modeling. The variety of output formats is almost the same as the systems themselves. This diversity additionally hampers the conversion of the models. The presented study is aimed at discussing problems due to differences in the output formats of various modeling environments.

Keywords: Business process modeling, business process modeling standards, workflow patterns, converting models.

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6559 A Goal-Oriented Social Business Process Management Framework

Authors: Mohammad Ehson Rangiha, Bill Karakostas

Abstract:

Social Business Process Management (SBPM) promises to overcome limitations of traditional BPM by allowing flexible process design and enactment through the involvement of users from a social community. This paper proposes a meta-model and architecture for socially driven business process management systems. It discusses the main facets of the architecture such as goalbased role assignment that combines social recommendations with user profile, and process recommendation, through a real example of a charity organization.

Keywords: Business Process Management, Goal-Based Modelling, Process Recommendation Social Collaboration, Social BPM.

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6558 Accessible Business Process Modelling

Authors: D. D. Vaziri, D. DeOliveira

Abstract:

This article concerns with the accessibility of Business process modelling tools (BPMo tools) and business process modelling languages (BPMo languages). Therefore the reader will be introduced to business process management and the authors' motivation behind this inquiry. Afterwards, the paper will reflect problems when applying inaccessible BPMo tools. To illustrate these problems the authors distinguish between two different categories of issues and provide practical examples. Finally the article will present three approaches to improve the accessibility of BPMo tools and BPMo languages.

Keywords: Accessibility, Business Process Management, BPM, Event Process Chains, Modelling Languages

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6557 A Holistic Workflow Modeling Method for Business Process Redesign

Authors: Heejung Lee

Abstract:

In a highly competitive environment, it becomes more important to shorten the whole business process while delivering or even enhancing the business value to the customers and suppliers. Although the workflow management systems receive much attention for its capacity to practically support the business process enactment, the effective workflow modeling method remain still challenging and the high degree of process complexity makes it more difficult to gain the short lead time. This paper presents a workflow structuring method in a holistic way that can reduce the process complexity using activity-needs and formal concept analysis, which eventually enhances the key performance such as quality, delivery, and cost in business process.

Keywords: Workflow management, reengineering, formal concept analysis.

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6556 A Quantitative Approach to Strategic Design of Component-Based Business Process Models

Authors: Eakong Atiptamvaree, Twittie Senivongse

Abstract:

A new paradigm for software design and development models software by its business process, translates the model into a process execution language, and has it run by a supporting execution engine. This process-oriented paradigm promotes modeling of software by less technical users or business analysts as well as rapid development. Since business process models may be shared by different organizations and sometimes even by different business domains, it is interesting to apply a technique used in traditional software component technology to design reusable business processes. This paper discusses an approach to apply a technique for software component fabrication to the design of process-oriented software units, called process components. These process components result from decomposing a business process of a particular application domain into subprocesses with an aim that the process components can be reusable in different process-based software models. The approach is quantitative because the quality of process component design is measured from technical features of the process components. The approach is also strategic because the measured quality is determined against business-oriented component management goals. A software tool has been developed to measure how good a process component design is, according to the required managerial goals and comparing to other designs. We also discuss how we benefit from reusable process components.

Keywords: Business process model, process component, component management goals, measurement

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6555 Using Ontology Search in the Design of Class Diagram from Business Process Model

Authors: Wararat Rungworawut, Twittie Senivongse

Abstract:

Business process model describes process flow of a business and can be seen as the requirement for developing a software application. This paper discusses a BPM2CD guideline which complements the Model Driven Architecture concept by suggesting how to create a platform-independent software model in the form of a UML class diagram from a business process model. An important step is the identification of UML classes from the business process model. A technique for object-oriented analysis called domain analysis is borrowed and key concepts in the business process model will be discovered and proposed as candidate classes for the class diagram. The paper enhances this step by using ontology search to help identify important classes for the business domain. As ontology is a source of knowledge for a particular domain which itself can link to ontologies of related domains, the search can give a refined set of candidate classes for the resulting class diagram.

Keywords: Business Process Model, Model DrivenArchitecture, Ontology, UML Class Diagram.

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6554 Process-based Business Transformation through Services Computing

Authors: Sinnakkrishnan Perumal, Nitish Pandey

Abstract:

Business transformation initiatives are required by any organization to jump from its normal mode of operation to the one that is suitable for the change in the environment such as competitive pressures, regulatory requirements, changes in labor market, etc., or internal such as changes in strategy/vision, changes in the capability, change in the management, etc. Recent advances in information technology in automating the business processes have the potential to transform an organization to provide it with a sustained competitive advantage. Process constitutes the skeleton of a business. Thus, for a business to exist and compete well, it is essential for the skeleton to be robust and agile. This paper details “transformation" from a business perspective, methodologies to bring about an effective transformation, process-based transformation, and the role of services computing in this. Further, it details the benefits that could be achieved through services computing.

Keywords: Business Transformation, Services Oriented Architecture, Business Processes, Process-based Transformation.

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6553 Simulation Games in Business Process Management Education

Authors: Vesna Bosilj Vuksic, Mirjana Pejic Bach

Abstract:

Business process management (BPM) has become widely accepted within business community as a means for improving business performance. However, it is of the highest importance to incorporate BPM as part of the curriculum at the university level education in order to achieve the appropriate acceptance of the method. Goal of the paper is to determine the current state of education in business process management (BPM) at the Croatian universities and abroad. It investigates the applied forms of instruction and teaching methods and gives several proposals for BPM courses improvement. Since majority of undergraduate and postgraduate students have limited understanding of business processes and lack of any practical experience, there is a need for introducing new teaching approaches. Therefore, we offer some suggestions for further improvement, among which the introduction of simulation games environment in BPM education is strongly recommended.

Keywords: business process management, simulation games, education

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6552 Quality-Driven Business Process Refactoring

Authors: María Fernández-Ropero, Ricardo Pérez-Castillo, Ismael Caballero, Mario Piattini

Abstract:

Appropriate description of business processes through standard notations has become one of the most important assets for organizations. Organizations must therefore deal with quality faults in business process models such as the lack of understandability and modifiability. These quality faults may be exacerbated if business process models are mined by reverse engineering, e.g., from existing information systems that support those business processes. Hence, business process refactoring is often used, which change the internal structure of business processes whilst its external behavior is preserved. This paper aims to choose the most appropriate set of refactoring operators through the quality assessment concerning understandability and modifiability. These quality features are assessed through well-proven measures proposed in the literature. Additionally, a set of measure thresholds are heuristically established for applying the most promising refactoring operators, i.e., those that achieve the highest quality improvement according to the selected measures in each case.

Keywords: business process model, modifiability, refactoring, understandability

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6551 Digital Manufacturing: Evolution and a Process Oriented Approach to Align with Business Strategy

Authors: Abhimanyu Pati, Prabir K. Bandyopadhyay

Abstract:

The paper intends to highlight the significance of Digital Manufacturing (DM) strategy in support and achievement of business strategy and goals of any manufacturing organization. Towards this end, DM initiatives have been given a process perspective, while not undermining its technological significance, with a view to link its benefits directly with fulfilment of customer needs and expectations in a responsive and cost-effective manner. A digital process model has been proposed to categorize digitally enabled organizational processes with a view to create synergistic groups, which adopt and use digital tools having similar characteristics and functionalities. This will throw future opportunities for researchers and developers to create a unified technology environment for integration and orchestration of processes. Secondly, an effort has been made to apply “what” and “how” features of Quality Function Deployment (QFD) framework to establish the relationship between customers’ needs – both for external and internal customers, and the features of various digital processes, which support for the achievement of these customer expectations. The paper finally concludes that in the present highly competitive environment, business organizations cannot thrive to sustain unless they understand the significance of digital strategy and integrate it with their business strategy with a clearly defined implementation roadmap. A process-oriented approach to DM strategy will help business executives and leaders to appreciate its value propositions and its direct link to organization’s competitiveness.

Keywords: Digital manufacturing, digital process model, quality function deployment, business strategy.

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6550 Measuring Process Component Design on Achieving Managerial Goals

Authors: Eakong Atiptamvaree, Twittie Senivongse

Abstract:

Process-oriented software development is a new software development paradigm in which software design is modeled by a business process which is in turn translated into a process execution language for execution. The building blocks of this paradigm are software units that are composed together to work according to the flow of the business process. This new paradigm still exhibits the characteristic of the applications built with the traditional software component technology. This paper discusses an approach to apply a traditional technique for software component fabrication to the design of process-oriented software units, called process components. These process components result from decomposing a business process of a particular application domain into subprocesses, and these process components can be reused to design the business processes of other application domains. The decomposition considers five managerial goals, namely cost effectiveness, ease of assembly, customization, reusability, and maintainability. The paper presents how to design or decompose process components from a business process model and measure some technical features of the design that would affect the managerial goals. A comparison between the measurement values from different designs can tell which process component design is more appropriate for the managerial goals that have been set. The proposed approach can be applied in Web Services environment which accommodates process-oriented software development.

Keywords: Business Process Model, Managerial Goals, ProcessComponent.

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6549 Linking Business Process Models and System Models Based on Business Process Modelling

Authors: Faisal A. Aburub

Abstract:

Organizations today need to invest in software in order to run their businesses, and to the organizations’ objectives, the software should be in line with the business process. This research presents an approach for linking process models and system models. Particularly, the new approach aims to synthesize sequence diagram based on role activity diagram (RAD) model. The approach includes four steps namely: Create business process model using RAD, identify computerized activities, identify entities in sequence diagram and identify messages in sequence diagram. The new approach has been validated using the process of student registration in University of Petra as a case study. Further research is required to validate the new approach using different domains.

Keywords: Business process modelling, system models, role activity diagrams, sequence diagrams.

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6548 Object-Centric Process Mining Using Process Cubes

Authors: Anahita Farhang Ghahfarokhi, Alessandro Berti, Wil M.P. van der Aalst

Abstract:

Process mining provides ways to analyze business processes. Common process mining techniques consider the process as a whole. However, in real-life business processes, different behaviors exist that make the overall process too complex to interpret. Process comparison is a branch of process mining that isolates different behaviors of the process from each other by using process cubes. Process cubes organize event data using different dimensions. Each cell contains a set of events that can be used as an input to apply process mining techniques. Existing work on process cubes assume single case notions. However, in real processes, several case notions (e.g., order, item, package, etc.) are intertwined. Object-centric process mining is a new branch of process mining addressing multiple case notions in a process. To make a bridge between object-centric process mining and process comparison, we propose a process cube framework, which supports process cube operations such as slice and dice on object-centric event logs. To facilitate the comparison, the framework is integrated with several object-centric process discovery approaches.

Keywords: Process mining, multidimensional process mining, multi-perspective business processes, OLAP, process cubes, process discovery.

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6547 Towards Development of Solution for Business Process-Oriented Data Analysis

Authors: M. Klimavicius

Abstract:

This paper proposes a modeling methodology for the development of data analysis solution. The Author introduce the approach to address data warehousing issues at the at enterprise level. The methodology covers the process of the requirements eliciting and analysis stage as well as initial design of data warehouse. The paper reviews extended business process model, which satisfy the needs of data warehouse development. The Author considers that the use of business process models is necessary, as it reflects both enterprise information systems and business functions, which are important for data analysis. The Described approach divides development into three steps with different detailed elaboration of models. The Described approach gives possibility to gather requirements and display them to business users in easy manner.

Keywords: Data warehouse, data analysis, business processmanagement.

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6546 Software Engineering Inspired Cost Estimation for Process Modelling

Authors: Felix Baumann, Aleksandar Milutinovic, Dieter Roller

Abstract:

Up to this point business process management projects in general and business process modelling projects in particular could not rely on a practical and scientifically validated method to estimate cost and effort. Especially the model development phase is not covered by a cost estimation method or model. Further phases of business process modelling starting with implementation are covered by initial solutions which are discussed in the literature. This article proposes a method of filling this gap by deriving a cost estimation method from available methods in similar domains namely software development or software engineering. Software development is regarded as closely similar to process modelling as we show. After the proposition of this method different ideas for further analysis and validation of the method are proposed. We derive this method from COCOMO II and Function Point which are established methods of effort estimation in the domain of software development. For this we lay out similarities of the software development process and the process of process modelling which is a phase of the Business Process Management life-cycle.

Keywords: Cost Estimation, Effort Estimation, Process Modelling, Business Process Management, COCOMO.

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6545 Heterogeneous Artifacts Construction for Software Evolution Control

Authors: Mounir Zekkaoui, Abdelhadi Fennan

Abstract:

The software evolution control requires a deep understanding of the changes and their impact on different system heterogeneous artifacts. And an understanding of descriptive knowledge of the developed software artifacts is a prerequisite condition for the success of the evolutionary process. The implementation of an evolutionary process is to make changes more or less important to many heterogeneous software artifacts such as source code, analysis and design models, unit testing, XML deployment descriptors, user guides, and others. These changes can be a source of degradation in functional, qualitative or behavioral terms of modified software. Hence the need for a unified approach for extraction and representation of different heterogeneous artifacts in order to ensure a unified and detailed description of heterogeneous software artifacts, exploitable by several software tools and allowing to responsible for the evolution of carry out the reasoning change concerned.

Keywords: Heterogeneous software artifacts, Software evolution control, Unified approach, Meta Model, Software Architecture.

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6544 Information Technology for Business Process Management in Insurance Companies

Authors: Vesna Bosilj Vukšić, Darija Ivandić Vidović, Ljubica Milanović Glavan

Abstract:

Information technology plays an irreplaceable role in introducing and improving business process orientation in a company. It enables implementation of the theoretical concept, measurement of results achieved and undertaking corrective measures aimed at improvements. Information technology is a key concept in the development and implementation of the business process management systems as it establishes a connection to business operations. Both in the literature and practice, insurance companies are often seen as highly process oriented due to the nature of their business and focus on customers. They are also considered leaders in using information technology for business process management. The research conducted aimed to investigate whether the perceived leadership status of insurance companies is well deserved, i.e. to establish the level of process orientation and explore the practice of information technology use in insurance companies in the region. The main instrument for primary data collection within this research was an electronic survey questionnaire sent to the management of insurance companies in the Republic of Croatia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Slovenia, Serbia and Macedonia. The conducted research has shown that insurance companies have a satisfactory level of process orientation, but that there is also a huge potential for improvement, especially in the segment of information technology and its connection to business processes.

Keywords: Business processes management, process orientation, information technology, insurance companies.

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6543 Using Agility in Building Business Process Management Solutions

Authors: Krešimir Fertalj, Mladen Matejaš

Abstract:

In turbulent modern economy, the companies need to properly manage their business processes. Well-defined and stable business processes ensure security of crucial data and applications, and provide a quality product or service to the end customer. On the other side, constant changes on the market, new regulatory provisions, and emerging new technologies require the need of issuing prompt and effective changes of business process. In this article, we explore the use of agile principles in working with business process management (BPM) solutions. We deal with difficulties in BPM development cycle, review the benefits of using agility, and choose the basic agile principles that ensure the success of a BPM project.

Keywords: Agile development, BPM environment, Kanban, SCRUM, XP.

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6542 Control-flow Complexity Measurement of Processes and Weyuker's Properties

Authors: Jorge Cardoso

Abstract:

Process measurement is the task of empirically and objectively assigning numbers to the properties of business processes in such a way as to describe them. Desirable attributes to study and measure include complexity, cost, maintainability, and reliability. In our work we will focus on investigating process complexity. We define process complexity as the degree to which a business process is difficult to analyze, understand or explain. One way to analyze a process- complexity is to use a process control-flow complexity measure. In this paper, an attempt has been made to evaluate the control-flow complexity measure in terms of Weyuker-s properties. Weyuker-s properties must be satisfied by any complexity measure to qualify as a good and comprehensive one.

Keywords: Business process measurement, workflow, complexity.

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6541 Managing Business Processes in the Age of Digital Transformation: A Literature Review

Authors: Ana-Marija Stjepić, Dalia Suša Vugec

Abstract:

Today, digital transformation is one of the leading topics that occupy the attention of scientific circles and business experts. Organizational success is most often reflected through the successful managing of business processes. Given the growing market for digital innovations and its ever-increasing impact on business, organizations need to be prepared for organizational changes that come with the digital era. In order to maintain their competitive advantage in the global market, organizations must adapt their processes to new digitalization conditions. The main goal of this study is to point out the link between the digital transformation and the business process management concept. Therefore, in order to contribute to the scientific field that explores the potential relation between business process management concept and digital transformation, a literature review has been conducted. Papers have been searched within the Business Process Management Journal by keywords related to the term digital transformation. Selected papers have been analyzed according to the topic, type of publication, year of publication, keywords, etc. The results reveal a growing number of papers published on the topic of digital transformation to the Business Process Management Journal, but the lack of case studies. This paper contributes to the extension of academic literature in this important, yet insufficiently researched, scientific field that creates the bond between two strong concepts of digital transformation and business process management.

Keywords: Business process management, digital transformation, digitalization, process change.

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6540 A Tool for Rational Assessment of Dynamic Trust in Networked Organizations

Authors: Simon Samwel Msanjila

Abstract:

Networked environments which provide platforms for business organizations are configured in different forms depending on many factors including life time, member characteristics, communication structure, and business objectives, among others. With continuing advances in digital technologies the distance has become a less barrier for business minded collaboration among organizations. With the need and ease to make business collaborate nowadays organizations are sometimes forced to co-work with others that are either unknown or less known to them in terms of history and performance. A promising approach for sustaining established collaboration has been establishment of trust relationship among organizations based on assessed trustworthiness for each participating organization. It has been stated in research that trust in organization is dynamic and thus assessment of trust level must address such dynamic nature. This paper assesses relevant aspects of trust and applies the assessed concepts to propose a semi-automated system for the management of Sustainability and Evolution of trust in organizations participating in specific objective in a networked organizations environment.

Keywords: Trust evolution, trust sustainability, networked organizations, dynamic trust.

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6539 A New Dimension of Business Intelligence: Location-based Intelligence

Authors: Zeljko Panian

Abstract:

Through the course of this paper we define Locationbased Intelligence (LBI) which is outgrowing from process of amalgamation of geolocation and Business Intelligence. Amalgamating geolocation with traditional Business Intelligence (BI) results in a new dimension of BI named Location-based Intelligence. LBI is defined as leveraging unified location information for business intelligence. Collectively, enterprises can transform location data into business intelligence applications that will benefit all aspects of the enterprise. Expectations from this new dimension of business intelligence are great and its future is obviously bright.

Keywords: Business intelligence, geolocation, location-based intelligence, innovation, location-intelligent business

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6538 Demand and Price Evolution Forecasting as Tools for Facilitating the RoadMapping Process of the Photonic Component Industry

Authors: T. Kamalakis, I. Neokosmidis, D. Varoutas, T. Sphicopoulos

Abstract:

The photonic component industry is a highly innovative industry with a large value chain. In order to ensure the growth of the industry much effort must be devoted to road mapping activities. In such activities demand and price evolution forecasting tools can prove quite useful in order to help in the roadmap refinement and update process. This paper attempts to provide useful guidelines in roadmapping of optical components and considers two models based on diffusion theory and the extended learning curve for demand and price evolution forecasting.

Keywords: Roadmapping, Photonic Components, Forecasting, Diffusion Theory.

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