Search results for: autoregressive distributed lag
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 923

Search results for: autoregressive distributed lag

713 Trispectral Analysis of Voiced Sounds Defective Audition and Tracheotomisian Cases

Authors: H. Maalem, F. Marir

Abstract:

This paper presents the cepstral and trispectral analysis of a speech signal produced by normal men, men with defective audition (deaf, deep deaf) and others affected by tracheotomy, the trispectral analysis based on parametric methods (Autoregressive AR) using the fourth order cumulant. These analyses are used to detect and compare the pitches and the formants of corresponding voiced sounds (vowel \a\, \i\ and \u\). The first results appear promising, since- it seems after several experimentsthere is no deformation of the spectrum as one could have supposed it at the beginning, however these pathologies influenced the two characteristics: The defective audition influences to the formants contrary to the tracheotomy, which influences the fundamental frequency (pitch).

Keywords: Cepstrum, cumulant, defective audition, tracheotomisy, trispectrum.

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712 Variation of Streamwise and Vertical Turbulence Intensity in a Smooth and Rough Bed Open Channel Flow

Authors: Md Abdullah Al Faruque, Ram Balachandar

Abstract:

An experimental study with four different types of bed conditions was carried out to understand the effect of roughness in open channel flow at two different Reynolds numbers. The bed conditions include a smooth surface and three different roughness conditions, which were generated using sand grains with a median diameter of 2.46 mm. The three rough conditions include a surface with distributed roughness, a surface with continuously distributed roughness and a sand bed with a permeable interface. A commercial two-component fibre-optic LDA system was used to conduct the velocity measurements. The variables of interest include the mean velocity, turbulence intensity, correlation between the streamwise and the wall normal turbulence, Reynolds shear stress and velocity triple products. Quadrant decomposition was used to extract the magnitude of the Reynolds shear stress of the turbulent bursting events. The effect of roughness was evident throughout the flow depth. The results show that distributed roughness has the greatest roughness effect followed by the sand bed and the continuous roughness. Compared to the smooth bed, the streamwise turbulence intensity reduces but the vertical turbulence intensity increases at a location very close to the bed due to the introduction of roughness. Although the same sand grain is used to create the three different rough bed conditions, the difference in the turbulence intensity is an indication that the specific geometry of the roughness has an influence on turbulence structure.

Keywords: Open channel flow, smooth bed, rough bed, Reynolds number, turbulence.

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711 Effect of DG Installation in Distribution System for Voltage Monitoring Scheme

Authors: S. R. A. Rahim, I. Musirin, M. M. Othman, M. H. Hussain

Abstract:

Loss minimization is a long progressing issue mainly in distribution system. Nevertheless its effect led to temperature rise due to significant voltage drop through the distribution line. Thus, compensation scheme should be proper scheduled in the attempt to alleviate the voltage drop phenomenon. Distributed generation has been profoundly known for voltage profile improvement; provided that over-compensation or under-compensation phenomena are avoided. This paper addresses the issue of voltage improvement through different type DG installation. In ensuring optimal sizing and location of the DGs, pre-developed EMEFA technique was made use for this purpose. Incremental loading condition subjected to the system is the concern such that it is beneficial to the power system operator.

Keywords: Distributed generation, EMEFA, power loss, voltage profile.

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710 Unbalanced Distribution Optimal Power Flow to Minimize Losses with Distributed Photovoltaic Plants

Authors: Malinwo Estone Ayikpa

Abstract:

Electric power systems are likely to operate with minimum losses and voltage meeting international standards. This is made possible generally by control actions provide by automatic voltage regulators, capacitors and transformers with on-load tap changer (OLTC). With the development of photovoltaic (PV) systems technology, their integration on distribution networks has increased over the last years to the extent of replacing the above mentioned techniques. The conventional analysis and simulation tools used for electrical networks are no longer able to take into account control actions necessary for studying distributed PV generation impact. This paper presents an unbalanced optimal power flow (OPF) model that minimizes losses with association of active power generation and reactive power control of single-phase and three-phase PV systems. Reactive power can be generated or absorbed using the available capacity and the adjustable power factor of the inverter. The unbalance OPF is formulated by current balance equations and solved by primal-dual interior point method. Several simulation cases have been carried out varying the size and location of PV systems and the results show a detailed view of the impact of PV distributed generation on distribution systems.

Keywords: Distribution system, losses, photovoltaic generation, primal-dual interior point method, reactive power control.

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709 Optimized Approach for Secure Data Sharing in Distributed Database

Authors: Ahmed Mateen, Zhu Qingsheng, Ahmad Bilal

Abstract:

In the current age of technology, information is the most precious asset of a company. Today, companies have a large amount of data. As the data become larger, access to data for some particular information is becoming slower day by day. Faster data processing to shape it in the form of information is the biggest issue. The major problems in distributed databases are the efficiency of data distribution and response time of data distribution. The security of data distribution is also a big issue. For these problems, we proposed a strategy that can maximize the efficiency of data distribution and also increase its response time. This technique gives better results for secure data distribution from multiple heterogeneous sources. The newly proposed technique facilitates the companies for secure data sharing efficiently and quickly.

Keywords: ER-schema, electronic record, P2P framework, API, query formulation.

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708 FWM Wavelength Conversion Analysis in a 3-Integrated Portion SOA and DFB Laser using Coupled Wave Approach and FD-BPM Method

Authors: M. K. Moazzam, A. Salmanpour, M. Nirouei

Abstract:

In this paper we have numerically analyzed terahertzrange wavelength conversion using nondegenerate four wave mixing (NDFWM) in a SOA integrated DFB laser (experiments reported both in MIT electronics and Fujitsu research laboratories). For analyzing semiconductor optical amplifier (SOA), we use finitedifference beam propagation method (FDBPM) based on modified nonlinear SchrÖdinger equation and for distributed feedback (DFB) laser we use coupled wave approach. We investigated wavelength conversion up to 4THz probe-pump detuning with conversion efficiency -5dB in 1THz probe-pump detuning for a SOA integrated quantum-well

Keywords: distributed feedback laser, nondegenerate fourwave mixing, semiconductor optical amplifier, wavelengthconversion

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707 A Comparison between Heterogeneous and Homogeneous Gas Flow Model in Slurry Bubble Column Reactor for Direct Synthesis of DME

Authors: Sadegh Papari, Mohammad Kazemeini, Moslem Fattahi

Abstract:

In the present study, a heterogeneous and homogeneous gas flow dispersion model for simulation and optimisation of a large-scale catalytic slurry reactor for the direct synthesis of dimethyl ether (DME) from syngas and CO2, using a churn-turbulent regime was developed. In the heterogeneous gas flow model the gas phase was distributed into two bubble phases: small and large, however in the homogeneous one, the gas phase was distributed into only one large bubble phase. The results indicated that the heterogeneous gas flow model was in more agreement with experimental pilot plant data than the homogeneous one.

Keywords: Modelling, Slurry bubble column, Dimethyl ether synthesis, Homogeneous gas flow, Heterogeneous gas flow

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706 Asynchronous Parallel Distributed Genetic Algorithm with Elite Migration

Authors: Kazunori Kojima, Masaaki Ishigame, Goutam Chakraborty, Hiroshi Hatsuo, Shozo Makino

Abstract:

In most of the popular implementation of Parallel GAs the whole population is divided into a set of subpopulations, each subpopulation executes GA independently and some individuals are migrated at fixed intervals on a ring topology. In these studies, the migrations usually occur 'synchronously' among subpopulations. Therefore, CPUs are not used efficiently and the communication do not occur efficiently either. A few studies tried asynchronous migration but it is hard to implement and setting proper parameter values is difficult. The aim of our research is to develop a migration method which is easy to implement, which is easy to set parameter values, and which reduces communication traffic. In this paper, we propose a traffic reduction method for the Asynchronous Parallel Distributed GA by migration of elites only. This is a Server-Client model. Every client executes GA on a subpopulation and sends an elite information to the server. The server manages the elite information of each client and the migrations occur according to the evolution of sub-population in a client. This facilitates the reduction in communication traffic. To evaluate our proposed model, we apply it to many function optimization problems. We confirm that our proposed method performs as well as current methods, the communication traffic is less, and setting of the parameters are much easier.

Keywords: Parallel Distributed Genetic Algorithm (PDGA), asynchronousPDGA, Server-Client configuration, Elite Migration

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705 A Graph-Based Approach for Placement of No-Replicated Databases in Grid

Authors: Cherif Haddad, Faouzi Ben Charrada

Abstract:

On a such wide-area environment as a Grid, data placement is an important aspect of distributed database systems. In this paper, we address the problem of initial placement of database no-replicated fragments in Grid architecture. We propose a graph based approach that considers resource restrictions. The goal is to optimize the use of computing, storage and communication resources. The proposed approach is developed in two phases: in the first phase, we perform fragment grouping using knowledge about fragments dependency and, in the second phase, we determine an efficient placement of the fragment groups on the Grid. We also show, via experimental analysis that our approach gives solutions that are close to being optimal for different databases and Grid configurations.

Keywords: Grid computing, Distributed systems, Data resourcesmanagement, Database systems, Database placement.

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704 Stress Concentration around Countersunk Hole in Isotropic Plate under Transverse Loading

Authors: Parveen K. Saini, Tarun Agarwal

Abstract:

An investigation into the effect of countersunk depth, plate thickness, countersunk angle and plate width on the stress concentration around countersunk hole is carried out with the help of finite element analysis. The variation of stress concentration with respect to these parameters is studied for three types of loading viz. uniformly distributed load, uniformly varying load and functionally distributed load. The results of the finite element analysis are interpreted and some conclusions are drawn. The distribution of stress concentration around countersunk hole in isotropic plates simply supported at all the edges is found similar and is independent of loading. The maximum stress concentration also occurs at a particular point irrespective of the loading conditions.

Keywords: Stress Concentration Factor, Countersunk hole, Finite element, ANSYS.

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703 Forecasting Tala-AUD and Tala-USD Exchange Rates with ANN

Authors: Shamsuddin Ahmed, M. G. M. Khan, Biman Prasad, Avlin Prasad

Abstract:

The focus of this paper is to construct daily time series exchange rate forecast models of Samoan Tala/USD and Tala/AUD during the year 2008 to 2012 with neural network The performance of the models was measured by using varies error functions such as Root Square mean error (RSME), Mean absolute error (MAE), and Mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). Our empirical findings suggest that AR (1) model is an effective tool to forecast the Tala/USD and Tala/AUD.

Keywords: Neural Network Forecasting Model, Autoregressive time series, Exchange rate, Tala/AUD, winters model.

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702 An Agent Oriented Approach to Operational Profile Management

Authors: Sunitha Ramanujam, Hany El Yamany, Miriam A. M. Capretz

Abstract:

Software reliability, defined as the probability of a software system or application functioning without failure or errors over a defined period of time, has been an important area of research for over three decades. Several research efforts aimed at developing models to improve reliability are currently underway. One of the most popular approaches to software reliability adopted by some of these research efforts involves the use of operational profiles to predict how software applications will be used. Operational profiles are a quantification of usage patterns for a software application. The research presented in this paper investigates an innovative multiagent framework for automatic creation and management of operational profiles for generic distributed systems after their release into the market. The architecture of the proposed Operational Profile MAS (Multi-Agent System) is presented along with detailed descriptions of the various models arrived at following the analysis and design phases of the proposed system. The operational profile in this paper is extended to comprise seven different profiles. Further, the criticality of operations is defined using a new composed metrics in order to organize the testing process as well as to decrease the time and cost involved in this process. A prototype implementation of the proposed MAS is included as proof-of-concept and the framework is considered as a step towards making distributed systems intelligent and self-managing.

Keywords: Software reliability, Software testing, Metrics, Distributed systems, Multi-agent systems

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701 Distributed Coordination of Connected and Automated Vehicles at Multiple Interconnected Intersections

Authors: Zhiyuan Du, Baisravan Hom Chaudhuri, Pierluigi Pisu

Abstract:

In connected vehicle systems where wireless communication is available among the involved vehicles and intersection controllers, it is possible to design an intersection coordination strategy that leads the connected and automated vehicles (CAVs) travel through the road intersections without the conventional traffic light control. In this paper, we present a distributed coordination strategy for the CAVs at multiple interconnected intersections that aims at improving system fuel efficiency and system mobility. We present a distributed control solution where in the higher level, the intersection controllers calculate the road desired average velocity and optimally assign reference velocities of each vehicle. In the lower level, every vehicle is considered to use model predictive control (MPC) to track their reference velocity obtained from the higher level controller. The proposed method has been implemented on a simulation-based case with two-interconnected intersection network. Additionally, the effects of mixed vehicle types on the coordination strategy has been explored. Simulation results indicate the improvement on vehicle fuel efficiency and traffic mobility of the proposed method.

Keywords: Connected vehicles, automated vehicles, intersection coordination systems, multiple interconnected intersections, model predictive control.

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700 Review and Experiments on SDMSCue

Authors: Ashraf Anwar

Abstract:

In this work, I present a review on Sparse Distributed Memory for Small Cues (SDMSCue), a variant of Sparse Distributed Memory (SDM) that is capable of handling small cues. I then conduct and show some cognitive experiments on SDMSCue to test its cognitive soundness compared to SDM. Small cues refer to input cues that are presented to memory for reading associations; but have many missing parts or fields from them. The original SDM failed to handle such a problem. SDMSCue handles and overcomes this pitfall. The main idea in SDMSCue; is the repeated projection of the semantic space on smaller subspaces; that are selected based on the input cue length and pattern. This process allows for Read/Write operations using an input cue that is missing a large portion. SDMSCue is augmented with the use of genetic algorithms for memory allocation and initialization. I claim that SDM functionality is a subset of SDMSCue functionality.

Keywords: Artificial intelligence, recall, recognition, SDM, SDMSCue.

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699 Distributed Splay Suffix Arrays: A New Structure for Distributed String Search

Authors: Tu Kun, Gu Nai-jie, Bi Kun, Liu Gang, Dong Wan-li

Abstract:

As a structure for processing string problem, suffix array is certainly widely-known and extensively-studied. But if the string access pattern follows the “90/10" rule, suffix array can not take advantage of the fact that we often find something that we have just found. Although the splay tree is an efficient data structure for small documents when the access pattern follows the “90/10" rule, it requires many structures and an excessive amount of pointer manipulations for efficiently processing and searching large documents. In this paper, we propose a new and conceptually powerful data structure, called splay suffix arrays (SSA), for string search. This data structure combines the features of splay tree and suffix arrays into a new approach which is suitable to implementation on both conventional and clustered computers.

Keywords: suffix arrays, splay tree, string search, distributedalgorithm

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698 Rule-Based Message Passing for Collaborative Application in Distributed Environments

Authors: Wataru Yamazaki, Hironori Hiraishi, Fumio Mizoguchi

Abstract:

In this paper, we describe a rule-based message passing method to support developing collaborative applications, in which multiple users share resources in distributed environments. Message communications of applications in collaborative environments tend to be very complex because of the necessity to manage context situations such as sharing events, access controlling of users, and network places. In this paper, we propose a message communications method based on unification of artificial intelligence and logic programming for defining rules of such context information in a procedural object-oriented programming language. We also present an implementation of the method as java classes.

Keywords: agent programming, logic programming, multi-media application, collaborative application.

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697 Compressed Suffix Arrays to Self-Indexes Based on Partitioned Elias-Fano

Authors: Guo Wenyu, Qu Youli

Abstract:

A practical and simple self-indexing data structure, Partitioned Elias-Fano (PEF) - Compressed Suffix Arrays (CSA), is built in linear time for the CSA based on PEF indexes. Moreover, the PEF-CSA is compared with two classical compressed indexing methods, Ferragina and Manzini implementation (FMI) and Sad-CSA on different type and size files in Pizza & Chili. The PEF-CSA performs better on the existing data in terms of the compression ratio, count, and locates time except for the evenly distributed data such as proteins data. The observations of the experiments are that the distribution of the φ is more important than the alphabet size on the compression ratio. Unevenly distributed data φ makes better compression effect, and the larger the size of the hit counts, the longer the count and locate time.

Keywords: Compressed suffix array, self-indexing, partitioned Elias-Fano, PEF-CSA.

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696 Trade Policy and Economic Growth of Turkey in Global Economy: New Empirical Evidences

Authors: Pınar Yardımcı

Abstract:

This paper tries to answer to the questions whether or not trade openness causes economic growth and trade policy changes are good for Turkey as a developing country in global economy before and after 1980. We employ Johansen co-integration and Granger causality tests with error correction modeling based on vector autoregressive. Using WDI data from the pre-1980 and the post-1980, we find that trade openness and economic growth are cointegrated in the second term only. Also the results suggest a lack of long-run causality between our two variables. These findings may imply that trade policy of Turkey should concentrate more on extra complementary economic reforms.

Keywords: Globalization, Trade Policy, Economic Growth, Openness, Co-integration, Turkey.

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695 Hysteresis Control of Power Conditioning Unit for Fuel Cell Distributed Generation System

Authors: Kanhu Charan Bhuyan, Subhransu Padhee, Rajesh Kumar Patjoshi, Kamalakanta Mahapatra

Abstract:

Fuel cell is an emerging technology in the field of renewable energy sources which has the capacity to replace conventional energy generation sources. Fuel cell utilizes hydrogen energy to produce electricity. The electricity generated by the fuel cell can’t be directly used for a specific application as it needs proper power conditioning. Moreover, the output power fluctuates with different operating conditions. To get a stable output power at an economic rate, power conditioning circuit is essential for fuel cell. This paper implements a two-staged power conditioning unit for fuel cell based distributed generation using hysteresis current control technique.

Keywords: Fuel cell, power conditioning unit, hysteresis control.

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694 Modeling Spatial Distributions of Point and Nonpoint Source Pollution Loadings in the Great Lakes Watersheds

Authors: Chansheng He, Carlo DeMarchi

Abstract:

A physically based, spatially-distributed water quality model is being developed to simulate spatial and temporal distributions of material transport in the Great Lakes Watersheds of the U.S. Multiple databases of meteorology, land use, topography, hydrography, soils, agricultural statistics, and water quality were used to estimate nonpoint source loading potential in the study watersheds. Animal manure production was computed from tabulations of animals by zip code area for the census years of 1987, 1992, 1997, and 2002. Relative chemical loadings for agricultural land use were calculated from fertilizer and pesticide estimates by crop for the same periods. Comparison of these estimates to the monitored total phosphorous load indicates that both point and nonpoint sources are major contributors to the total nutrient loads in the study watersheds, with nonpoint sources being the largest contributor, particularly in the rural watersheds. These estimates are used as the input to the distributed water quality model for simulating pollutant transport through surface and subsurface processes to Great Lakes waters. Visualization and GIS interfaces are developed to visualize the spatial and temporal distribution of the pollutant transport in support of water management programs.

Keywords: Distributed Large Basin Runoff Model, Great LakesWatersheds, nonpoint source pollution, and point sources.

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693 Computationally Efficient Signal Quality Improvement Method for VoIP System

Authors: H. P. Singh, S. Singh

Abstract:

The voice signal in Voice over Internet protocol (VoIP) system is processed through the best effort policy based IP network, which leads to the network degradations including delay, packet loss jitter. The work in this paper presents the implementation of finite impulse response (FIR) filter for voice quality improvement in the VoIP system through distributed arithmetic (DA) algorithm. The VoIP simulations are conducted with AMR-NB 6.70 kbps and G.729a speech coders at different packet loss rates and the performance of the enhanced VoIP signal is evaluated using the perceptual evaluation of speech quality (PESQ) measurement for narrowband signal. The results show reduction in the computational complexity in the system and significant improvement in the quality of the VoIP voice signal.

Keywords: VoIP, Signal Quality, Distributed Arithmetic, Packet Loss, Speech Coder.

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692 Probabilistic Approach of Dealing with Uncertainties in Distributed Constraint Optimization Problems and Situation Awareness for Multi-agent Systems

Authors: Sagir M. Yusuf, Chris Baber

Abstract:

In this paper, we describe how Bayesian inferential reasoning will contributes in obtaining a well-satisfied prediction for Distributed Constraint Optimization Problems (DCOPs) with uncertainties. We also demonstrate how DCOPs could be merged to multi-agent knowledge understand and prediction (i.e. Situation Awareness). The DCOPs functions were merged with Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) in the form of situation, awareness, and utility nodes. We describe how the uncertainties can be represented to the BBN and make an effective prediction using the expectation-maximization algorithm or conjugate gradient descent algorithm. The idea of variable prediction using Bayesian inference may reduce the number of variables in agents’ sampling domain and also allow missing variables estimations. Experiment results proved that the BBN perform compelling predictions with samples containing uncertainties than the perfect samples. That is, Bayesian inference can help in handling uncertainties and dynamism of DCOPs, which is the current issue in the DCOPs community. We show how Bayesian inference could be formalized with Distributed Situation Awareness (DSA) using uncertain and missing agents’ data. The whole framework was tested on multi-UAV mission for forest fire searching. Future work focuses on augmenting existing architecture to deal with dynamic DCOPs algorithms and multi-agent information merging.

Keywords: DCOP, multi-agent reasoning, Bayesian reasoning, swarm intelligence.

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691 A Distributed Cognition Framework to Compare E-Commerce Websites Using Data Envelopment Analysis

Authors: C. lo Storto

Abstract:

This paper presents an approach based on the adoption of a distributed cognition framework and a non parametric multicriteria evaluation methodology (DEA) designed specifically to compare e-commerce websites from the consumer/user viewpoint. In particular, the framework considers a website relative efficiency as a measure of its quality and usability. A website is modelled as a black box capable to provide the consumer/user with a set of functionalities. When the consumer/user interacts with the website to perform a task, he/she is involved in a cognitive activity, sustaining a cognitive cost to search, interpret and process information, and experiencing a sense of satisfaction. The degree of ambiguity and uncertainty he/she perceives and the needed search time determine the effort size – and, henceforth, the cognitive cost amount – he/she has to sustain to perform his/her task. On the contrary, task performing and result achievement induce a sense of gratification, satisfaction and usefulness. In total, 9 variables are measured, classified in a set of 3 website macro-dimensions (user experience, site navigability and structure). The framework is implemented to compare 40 websites of businesses performing electronic commerce in the information technology market. A questionnaire to collect subjective judgements for the websites in the sample was purposely designed and administered to 85 university students enrolled in computer science and information systems engineering undergraduate courses.

Keywords: Website, e-commerce, DEA, distributed cognition, evaluation, comparison.

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690 Topological Properties of an Exponential Random Geometric Graph Process

Authors: Yilun Shang

Abstract:

In this paper we consider a one-dimensional random geometric graph process with the inter-nodal gaps evolving according to an exponential AR(1) process. The transition probability matrix and stationary distribution are derived for the Markov chains concerning connectivity and the number of components. We analyze the algorithm for hitting time regarding disconnectivity. In addition to dynamical properties, we also study topological properties for static snapshots. We obtain the degree distributions as well as asymptotic precise bounds and strong law of large numbers for connectivity threshold distance and the largest nearest neighbor distance amongst others. Both exact results and limit theorems are provided in this paper.

Keywords: random geometric graph, autoregressive process, degree, connectivity, Markovian, wireless network.

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689 Enabling Automated Deployment for Cluster Computing in Distributed PC Classrooms

Authors: Shuen-Tai Wang, Ying-Chuan Chen, Hsi-Ya Chang

Abstract:

The rapid improvement of the microprocessor and network has made it possible for the PC cluster to compete with conventional supercomputers. Lots of high throughput type of applications can be satisfied by using the current desktop PCs, especially for those in PC classrooms, and leave the supercomputers for the demands from large scale high performance parallel computations. This paper presents our development on enabling an automated deployment mechanism for cluster computing to utilize the computing power of PCs such as reside in PC classroom. After well deployment, these PCs can be transformed into a pre-configured cluster computing resource immediately without touching the existing education/training environment installed on these PCs. Thus, the training activities will not be affected by this additional activity to harvest idle computing cycles. The time and manpower required to build and manage a computing platform in geographically distributed PC classrooms also can be reduced by this development.

Keywords: PC cluster, automated deployment, cluster computing, PC classroom.

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688 Variability of Hydrological Modeling of the Blue Nile

Authors: Abeer Samy, Oliver C. Saavedra Valeriano, Abdelazim Negm

Abstract:

The Blue Nile Basin is the most important tributary of the Nile River. Egypt and Sudan are almost dependent on water originated from the Blue Nile. This multi-dependency creates conflicts among the three countries Egypt, Sudan, and Ethiopia making the management of these conflicts as an international issue. Good assessment of the water resources of the Blue Nile is an important to help in managing such conflicts. Hydrological models are good tool for such assessment. This paper presents a critical review of the nature and variability of the climate and hydrology of the Blue Nile Basin as a first step of using hydrological modeling to assess the water resources of the Blue Nile. Many several attempts are done to develop basin-scale hydrological modeling on the Blue Nile. Lumped and semi distributed models used averages of meteorological inputs and watershed characteristics in hydrological simulation, to analyze runoff for flood control and water resource management. Distributed models include the temporal and spatial variability of catchment conditions and meteorological inputs to allow better representation of the hydrological process. The main challenge of all used models was to assess the water resources of the basin is the shortage of the data needed for models calibration and validation. It is recommended to use distributed model for their higher accuracy to cope with the great variability and complexity of the Blue Nile basin and to collect sufficient data to have more sophisticated and accurate hydrological modeling.

Keywords: Blue Nile Basin, Climate Change, Hydrological Modeling, Watershed.

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687 Distributed Manufacturing (DM) - Smart Units and Collaborative Processes

Authors: Hermann Kuehnle

Abstract:

Applications of the Hausdorff space and its mappings into tangent spaces are outlined, including their fractal dimensions and self-similarities. The paper details this theory set up and further describes virtualizations and atomization of manufacturing processes. It demonstrates novel concurrency principles that will guide manufacturing processes and resources configurations. Moreover, varying levels of details may be produced by up folding and breaking down of newly introduced generic models. This choice of layered generic models for units and systems aspects along specific aspects allows research work in parallel to other disciplines with the same focus on all levels of detail. More credit and easier access are granted to outside disciplines for enriching manufacturing grounds. Specific mappings and the layers give hints for chances for interdisciplinary outcomes and may highlight more details for interoperability standards, as already worked on the international level. The new rules are described, which require additional properties concerning all involved entities for defining distributed decision cycles, again on the base of self-similarity. All properties are further detailed and assigned to a maturity scale, eventually displaying the smartness maturity of a total shopfloor or a factory. The paper contributes to the intensive ongoing discussion in the field of intelligent distributed manufacturing and promotes solid concepts for implementations of Cyber Physical Systems and the Internet of Things into manufacturing industry, like industry 4.0, as discussed in German-speaking countries.

Keywords: Autonomous unit, Networkability, Smart manufacturing unit, Virtualization.

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686 Currency Exchange Rate Forecasts Using Quantile Regression

Authors: Yuzhi Cai

Abstract:

In this paper, we discuss a Bayesian approach to quantile autoregressive (QAR) time series model estimation and forecasting. Together with a combining forecasts technique, we then predict USD to GBP currency exchange rates. Combined forecasts contain all the information captured by the fitted QAR models at different quantile levels and are therefore better than those obtained from individual models. Our results show that an unequally weighted combining method performs better than other forecasting methodology. We found that a median AR model can perform well in point forecasting when the predictive density functions are symmetric. However, in practice, using the median AR model alone may involve the loss of information about the data captured by other QAR models. We recommend that combined forecasts should be used whenever possible.

Keywords: Exchange rate, quantile regression, combining forecasts.

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685 A Fault Tolerant Token-based Algorithm for Group Mutual Exclusion in Distributed Systems

Authors: Abhishek Swaroop, Awadhesh Kumar Singh

Abstract:

The group mutual exclusion (GME) problem is a variant of the mutual exclusion problem. In the present paper a token-based group mutual exclusion algorithm, capable of handling transient faults, is proposed. The algorithm uses the concept of dynamic request sets. A time out mechanism is used to detect the token loss; also, a distributed scheme is used to regenerate the token. The worst case message complexity of the algorithm is n+1. The maximum concurrency and forum switch complexity of the algorithm are n and min (n, m) respectively, where n is the number of processes and m is the number of groups. The algorithm also satisfies another desirable property called smooth admission. The scheme can also be adapted to handle the extended group mutual exclusion problem.

Keywords: Dynamic request sets, Fault tolerance, Smoothadmission, Transient faults.

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684 Recent Trends in Nonlinear Methods of HRV Analysis: A Review

Authors: Ramesh K. Sunkaria

Abstract:

The linear methods of heart rate variability analysis such as non-parametric (e.g. fast Fourier transform analysis) and parametric methods (e.g. autoregressive modeling) has become an established non-invasive tool for marking the cardiac health, but their sensitivity and specificity were found to be lower than expected with positive predictive value <30%. This may be due to considering the RR-interval series as stationary and re-sampling them prior to their use for analysis, whereas actually it is not. This paper reviews the non-linear methods of HRV analysis such as correlation dimension, largest Lyupnov exponent, power law slope, fractal analysis, detrended fluctuation analysis, complexity measure etc. which are currently becoming popular as these uses the actual RR-interval series. These methods are expected to highly accurate cardiac health prognosis.

Keywords: chaos, nonlinear dynamics, sample entropy, approximate entropy, detrended fluctuation analysis.

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