Search results for: Uncertainty.

Authors: Ruiheng Li, Amir Parsa Anvar, Amir M. Anvar, Tien-Fu Lu

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High redundancy and strong uncertainty are two main characteristics for underwater robotic manipulators with unlimited workspace and mobility, but they also make the motion planning and control difficult and complex. In order to setup the groundwork for the research on control schemes, the mathematical representation is built by using the Denavit-Hartenberg (D-H) method [9]&[12]; in addition to the geometry of the manipulator which was studied for establishing the direct and inverse kinematics. Then, the dynamic model is developed and used by employing the Lagrange theorem. Furthermore, derivation and computer simulation is accomplished using the MATLAB environment. The result obtained is compared with mechanical system dynamics analysis software, ADAMS. In addition, the creation of intelligent artificial skin using Interlink Force Sensing ResistorTM technology is presented as groundwork for future work

Keywords: Manipulator System, Robot, AUV, Denavit- Hartenberg method Lagrange theorem, MALTAB, ADAMS, Direct and Inverse Kinematics, Dynamics, PD Control-law, Interlink Force Sensing ResistorTM, intelligent artificial skin system.

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Authors: Takeshi Takeda

Abstract:

The author conducted post-test analysis with the RELAP5/MOD3.3 code for an experiment using the ROSA/LSTF (rig of safety assessment/large-scale test facility) that simulated a 1% cold leg small-break loss-of-coolant accident under the failure of scram in a pressurized water reactor. The LSTF test assumed total failure of high-pressure injection system of emergency core cooling system. In the LSTF test, natural circulation contributed to maintain core cooling effect for a relatively long time until core uncovery occurred. The post-test analysis result confirmed inadequate prediction of the primary coolant distribution. The author created the phenomena identification and ranking table (PIRT) for each component. The author investigated the influences of uncertain parameters determined by the PIRT on the cladding surface temperature at a certain time during core uncovery within the defined uncertain ranges.

Keywords: LSTF, LOCA, scram, RELAP5.

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Authors: Tarifa S. Almulhim, Ludmil Mikhailov, Dong-Ling Xu

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In this paper, a method for deriving a group priority vector in the Fuzzy Analytic Network Process (FANP) is proposed. By introducing importance weights of multiple decision makers (DMs) based on their experiences, the Fuzzy Preferences Programming Method (FPP) is extended to a fuzzy group prioritization problem in the FANP. Additionally, fuzzy pair-wise comparison judgments are presented rather than exact numerical assessments in order to model the uncertainty and imprecision in the DMs- judgments and then transform the fuzzy group prioritization problem into a fuzzy non-linear programming optimization problem which maximize the group satisfaction. Unlike the known fuzzy prioritization techniques, the new method proposed in this paper can easily derive crisp weights from incomplete and inconsistency fuzzy set of comparison judgments and does not require additional aggregation producers. Detailed numerical examples are used to illustrate the implement of our approach and compare with the latest fuzzy prioritization method.

Keywords: Fuzzy Analytic Network Process (FANP), Fuzzy Non-linear Programming, Fuzzy Preferences Programming Method (FPP), Multiple Criteria Decision-Making (MCDM), Triangular Fuzzy Number.

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Authors: Hossein Gitinavard, Mohammad Hossein Fazel Zarandi

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In the last decades, concerns about the environmental issues lead to professional and academic efforts on green supplier selection problems. In this sake, one of the main issues in evaluating the green supplier selection problems, which could increase the uncertainty, is the preferences of the experts' judgments about the candidate green suppliers. Therefore, preparing an expert system to evaluate the problem based on the historical data and the experts' knowledge can be sensible. This study provides an expert evaluation system to assess the candidate green suppliers under selected criteria in a multi-period approach. In addition, a ranking approach under interval-valued hesitant fuzzy set (IVHFS) environment is proposed to select the most appropriate green supplier in planning horizon. In the proposed ranking approach, the IVHFS and the last aggregation approach are considered to margin the errors and to prevent data loss, respectively. Hence, a comparative analysis is provided based on an illustrative example to show the feasibility of the proposed approach.

Keywords: Green supplier selection, expert system, ranking approach, interval-valued hesitant fuzzy setting.

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Authors: M. Osmani, A. O'Reilly

Abstract:

Housebuilders in England have been the target of numerous government policies in recent years promoting increased productivity and affordability. As a result, the housebuilding industry is currently faced with objectives to improve the affordability and sustainability of new homes whilst also increasing production rates to 240,000 per year by 2016.Yet amidst a faltering economic climate, the UK Government is forging ahead with the 'Code for Sustainable Homes', which includes stringent sustainable standards for all new homes and sets ambitious targets for the housebuilding industry, the culmination of which is the production of zero carbon homes by 2016.Great uncertainty exists amongst housebuilders as to the costs, benefits and risks of building zero carbon homes. This paper examines the key barriers to zero carbon homes from housebuilders- perspective. A comprehensive opinion on the challenges to deliver zero carbon homes is gathered through a questionnaire survey issued to the major housing developers in England. The study found that a number of cultural, legislative, and financial barriers stand in the way of the widespread construction of zero carbon homes. The study concludes with several recommendations to both the Government and the housebuilding industry to address the barriers that hinder a successful delivery of zero carbon homes in England.

Keywords: Zero carbon homes, Code for Sustainable Homes, housebuilders, England

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Authors: Kaustav Kundu, Alberto Portioli Staudacher

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Construction industry plays a vital role in the economy of the world. However, due to high uncertainty and variability in the industry, its performance is not as efficient in terms of quality, lead times, productivity and costs as of other industries. Moreover, there are continuous conflicts among the different actors in the construction supply chains in terms of profit sharing. Previous studies suggested partnership as an important approach to promote cooperation among the different actors in the construction supply chains and thereby it improves the overall performance. Construction practitioners tried to focus on partnership which can enhance the performance of construction supply chains but they are not fully aware of different approaches and techniques for improving partnership. In this research, a systematic review on partnership in relation to construction supply chains is carried out to understand different elements influencing the partnership. The research development of this domain is analyzed by reviewing selected articles published from 1996 to 2015. Based on the papers, three major elements influencing partnership in construction supply chains are identified: ‘Lean approach’, ‘Relationship building’ and ‘E-commerce applications’. This study analyses the contributions in the areas within each element and provides suggestions for future developments of partnership in construction supply chains.

Keywords: Partnership, construction, lean, SCM, supply chain management.

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Authors: M. Ahmadnezhad, M. Soltanpour

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Electrohydraulic servo system have been used in industry in a wide number of applications. Its dynamics are highly nonlinear and also have large extent of model uncertainties and external disturbances. In this paper, a robust back-stepping control (RBSC) scheme is proposed to overcome the problem of disturbances and system uncertainties effectively and to improve the tracking performance of EHS systems. In order to implement the proposed control scheme, the system uncertainties in EHS systems are considered as total leakage coefficient and effective oil volume. In addition, in order to obtain the virtual controls for stabilizing system, the update rule for the system uncertainty term is induced by the Lyapunov control function (LCF). To verify the performance and robustness of the proposed control system, computer simulation of the proposed control system using Matlab/Simulink Software is executed. From the computer simulation, it was found that the RBSC system produces the desired tracking performance and has robustness to the disturbances and system uncertainties of EHS systems.

Keywords: Electro hydraulic servo system, back-stepping control, robust back-stepping control, Lyapunov redesign

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Authors: M. Ahmadnezhad, M. Soltanpour

Abstract:

Electrohydraulic servo system have been used in industry in a wide number of applications. Its dynamics are highly nonlinear and also have large extent of model uncertainties and external disturbances. In this paper, a robust back-stepping control (RBSC) scheme is proposed to overcome the problem of disturbances and system uncertainties effectively and to improve the tracking performance of EHS systems. In order to implement the proposed control scheme, the system uncertainties in EHS systems are considered as total leakage coefficient and effective oil volume. In addition, in order to obtain the virtual controls for stabilizing system, the update rule for the system uncertainty term is induced by the Lyapunov control function (LCF). To verify the performance and robustness of the proposed control system, computer simulation of the proposed control system using Matlab/Simulink Software is executed. From the computer simulation, it was found that the RBSC system produces the desired tracking performance and has robustness to the disturbances and system uncertainties of EHS systems.

Keywords: Electro hydraulic servo system, back-stepping control, robust back-stepping control, Lyapunov redesign.

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Authors: Nesapriya. P., S. Rajalaxmi

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This paper is based on the bridgeless single-phase Ac–Dc Power Factor Correction (PFC) converters with Fuzzy Logic Controller. High frequency isolated Cuk converters are used as a modular dc-dc converter in Discontinuous Conduction Mode (DCM) of operation of Power Factor Correction. The aim of this paper is to simplify the program complexity of the controller by reducing the number of fuzzy sets of the Membership Functions (MFs) and to improve the efficiency and to eliminate the power quality problems. The output of Fuzzy controller is compared with High frequency triangular wave to generate PWM gating signals of Cuk converter. The proposed topologies are designed to work in Discontinuous Conduction Mode (DCM) to achieve a unity power factor and low total harmonic distortion of the input current. The Fuzzy Logic Controller gives additional advantages such as accurate result, uncertainty and imprecision and automatic control circuitry. Performance comparisons between the proposed and conventional controllers and circuits are performed based on circuit simulations.

Keywords: Fuzzy Logic Controller (FLC), Bridgeless rectifier, Cuk converter, Pulse Width Modulation (PWM), Power Factor Correction, Total Harmonic Distortion (THD).

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Authors: Mohamad Saab, Sidi Souvi

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In a major nuclear accident, the released fission products (FPs) and the structural materials are likely to influence the transport of iodine in the reactor coolant system (RCS) of a pressurized water reactor (PWR). So far, the thermodynamic data on cesium and silver species used to estimate the magnitude of FP release show some discrepancies, data are scarce and not reliable. For this reason, it is crucial to review the thermodynamic values related to cesium and silver materials. To this end, we have used state-of-the-art quantum chemical methods to compute the formation enthalpies and entropies of AgHMoO₄, CsHMoO₄, and AgCsMoO₄ in the gas phase. Different quantum chemical methods have been investigated (DFT and CCSD(T)) in order to predict the geometrical parameters and the energetics including the correlation energy. The geometries were optimized with TPSSh-5%HF method, followed by a single point calculation of the total electronic energies using the CCSD(T) wave function method. We thus propose with a final uncertainty of about 2 kJmol⁻¹ standard enthalpies of formation of AgHMoO₄, CsHMoO₄, and AgCsMoO₄.

Keywords: ASTEC, Accident Source Term Evaluation Code, quantum chemical methods, severe nuclear accident, thermochemical database.

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Authors: F. Felipe

Abstract:

Air Defense Systems contain high-value assets that are expected to fulfill their mission for several years - in many cases, even decades - while operating in a fast-changing, technology-driven environment. Thus, it is paramount that decision-makers can assess how effective an Air Defense System is in the face of new developing threats, as well as to identify the bottlenecks that could jeopardize the security of the airspace of a country. Given the broad extent of activities and the great variety of assets necessary to achieve the strategic objectives, a systems approach was taken in order to delineate the core requirements and the physical architecture of an Air Defense System. Then, value-focused thinking helped in the definition of the measures of effectiveness. Furthermore, analytical methods were applied to create a formal structure that preliminarily assesses such measures. To validate the proposed methodology, a powerful simulation was also used to determine the measures of effectiveness, now in more complex environments that incorporate both uncertainty and multiple interactions of the entities. The results regarding the validity of this methodology suggest that the approach can support decisions aimed at enhancing the capabilities of Air Defense Systems. In conclusion, this paper sheds some light on how consolidated approaches of Systems Engineering and Operations Research can be used as valid techniques for solving problems regarding a complex and yet vital matter.

Keywords: Air defense, effectiveness, system, simulation, decision-support.

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Authors: Sayed Amir Hamzeh Mirkheshti

Abstract:

Offshore wind energy as a strategic renewable energy, has been growing rapidly due to availability, abundance and clean nature of it. On the other hand, budget of this project is incredibly higher in comparison with other renewable energies and it takes more duration. Accordingly, precise estimation of time and cost is needed in order to promote awareness in the developers and society and to convince them to develop this kind of energy despite its difficulties. Occurrence risks during on project would cause its duration and cost constantly changed. Therefore, to develop offshore wind power, it is critical to consider all potential risks which impacted project and to simulate their impact. Hence, knowing about these risks could be useful for the selection of most influencing strategies such as avoidance, transition, and act in order to decrease their probability and impact. This paper presents an evaluation of the feasibility of 500 MV offshore wind project in the Persian Gulf and compares its situation with uncertainty resources and risk. The purpose of this study is to evaluate time and cost of offshore wind project under risk circumstances and uncertain resources by using Monte Carlo simulation. We analyzed each risk and activity along with their distribution function and their effect on the project.

Keywords: Wind energy project; uncertain resources; risks; Monte Carlo simulation.

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Authors: Amr Abdel Azim Ali, G. A. Elsheikh, Moutaz Hegazy

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This paper presents verification of a modeling and simulation for a Spacecraft (SC) attitude and orbit control system. Detailed formulation of coupled SC orbital and attitude equations of motion is performed in order to achieve accepted accuracy to meet the requirements of multitargets tracking and orbit correction complex modes. Correction of the target parameter based on the estimated state vector during shooting time to enhance pointing accuracy is considered. Time-optimal nonlinear feedback control technique was used in order to take full advantage of the maximum torques that the controller can deliver. This simulation provides options for visualizing SC trajectory and attitude in a 3D environment by including an interface with V-Realm Builder and VR Sink in Simulink/MATLAB. Verification data confirms the simulation results, ensuring that the model and the proposed control law can be used successfully for large and fast tracking and is robust enough to keep the pointing accuracy within the desired limits with considerable uncertainty in inertia and control torque.

Keywords: Attitude and orbit control, time-optimal nonlinear feedback control, modeling and simulation, pointing accuracy, maximum torques.

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Authors: Ramesh K. Sunkaria, Puneeta Marwaha

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Non linear methods of heart rate variability (HRV) analysis are becoming more popular. It has been observed that complexity measures quantify the regularity and uncertainty of cardiovascular RR-interval time series. In the present work, SampEn has been evaluated in healthy normal sinus rhythm (NSR) male and female subjects for different data lengths and tolerance level r. It is demonstrated that SampEn is small for higher values of tolerance r. Also SampEn value of healthy female group is higher than that of healthy male group for short data length and with increase in data length both groups overlap each other and it is difficult to distinguish them. The SampEn gives inaccurate results by assigning higher value to female group, because male subject have more complex HRV pattern than that of female subjects. Therefore, this traditional algorithm exhibits higher complexity for healthy female subjects than for healthy male subjects, which is misleading observation. This may be due to the fact that SampEn do not account for multiple time scales inherent in the physiologic time series and the hidden spatial and temporal fluctuations remains unexplored.

Keywords: Heart rate variability, normal sinus rhythm group, RR interval time series, sample entropy.

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Authors: C. Ardil

Abstract:

This article presents a multiple criteria evaluation approach to uncertainty, vagueness, and imprecision analysis for ranking alternatives with fuzzy data for decision making using the Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS). The fighter aircraft evaluation and selection decision making problem is modeled in a fuzzy environment with triangular fuzzy numbers. The fuzzy decision information related to the fighter aircraft selection problem is taken into account in ordering the alternatives and selecting the best candidate. The basic fuzzy TOPSIS procedure steps transform fuzzy decision matrices into matrices of alternatives evaluated according to all decision criteria. A practical numerical example illustrates the proposed approach to the fighter aircraft selection problem.

Keywords: triangular fuzzy number (TFN), multiple criteria decision making analysis, decision making, aircraft selection, MCDMA, fuzzy TOPSIS

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Authors: G. Kumaravelan, R. Sivakumar

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Modeling the behavior of the dialogue management in the design of a spoken dialogue system using statistical methodologies is currently a growing research area. This paper presents a work on developing an adaptive learning approach to optimize dialogue strategy. At the core of our system is a method formalizing dialogue management as a sequential decision making under uncertainty whose underlying probabilistic structure has a Markov Chain. Researchers have mostly focused on model-free algorithms for automating the design of dialogue management using machine learning techniques such as reinforcement learning. But in model-free algorithms there exist a dilemma in engaging the type of exploration versus exploitation. Hence we present a model-based online policy learning algorithm using interconnected learning automata for optimizing dialogue strategy. The proposed algorithm is capable of deriving an optimal policy that prescribes what action should be taken in various states of conversation so as to maximize the expected total reward to attain the goal and incorporates good exploration and exploitation in its updates to improve the naturalness of humancomputer interaction. We test the proposed approach using the most sophisticated evaluation framework PARADISE for accessing to the railway information system.

Keywords: Dialogue management, Learning automata, Reinforcement learning, Spoken dialogue system

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Authors: Abdellatif Kasbi, Abderrafii Rahali

Abstract:

During the recent years, much interest has been devoted to fractional order control that has appeared as a very eligible control approach for the systems experiencing parametric uncertainty and outer disturbances. The main purpose of this paper is to design and evaluate the performance of a fractional order proportional integral (FOPI) controller applied to control prototype variable speed wind generation system (WGS) that uses a doubly fed induction generator (DFIG). In this paper, the DFIG-machine is controlled according to the stator field-oriented control (FOC) strategy, which makes it possible to regulate separately the reactive and active powers exchanged between the WGS and the grid. The considered system is modeled and simulated using MATLAB-Simulink, and the performance of FOPI controller applied to the back-to-back power converter control of DFIG based grid connected variable speed wind turbine are evaluated and compared to the ones obtained with a conventional PI controller.

Keywords: Design, fractional order PI controller, wind generation system, doubly fed induction generator, wind turbine, field-oriented control.

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Authors: C. Ardil

Abstract:

Fighter aircraft selection is one of the most critical strategies for defense multiple criteria decision-making analysis to increase the decisive power of air defense and its superior power in the defense strategy. Vague set theory is an adequate approach for modeling vagueness, uncertainty, and imprecision in decision-making problems. This study integrates vague set theory and the technique for order of preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS) to support fighter aircraft selection. The proposed method is applied in the selection of fighter aircraft for the Air Force. In the proposed approach, the ratings of alternatives and the importance weights of criteria for fighter aircraft selection are represented by the vague set theory. Finally, an illustrative example for fighter aircraft selection is given to demonstrate the applicability and effectiveness of the proposed approach. The fighter aircraft candidates were selected under six criteria including costability, payloadability, maneuverability, speedability, stealthility, and survivability. Analysis results show that the best fighter aircraft is selected with the highest closeness coefficient value. The proposed method can also be applied to solve other multiple criteria decision analysis problems. 

Keywords: fighter aircraft selection, vague set theory, fuzzy set theory, neutrosophic set theory, multiple criteria decision making analysis, MCDMA, TOPSIS

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Authors: Debabrata Das, Pankaj Dutta

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Along with forward supply chain organization needs to consider the impact of reverse logistics due to its economic advantage, social awareness and strict legislations. In this paper, we develop a system dynamics framework for a closed-loop supply chain with fuzzy demand and fuzzy collection rate by incorporating product exchange policy in forward channel and various recovery options in reverse channel. The uncertainty issues associated with acquisition and collection of used product have been quantified using possibility measures. In the simulation study, we analyze order variation at both retailer and distributor level and compare bullwhip effects of different logistics participants over time between the traditional forward supply chain and the closed-loop supply chain. Our results suggest that the integration of reverse logistics can reduce order variation and bullwhip effect of a closed-loop system. Finally, sensitivity analysis is performed to examine the impact of various parameters on recovery process and bullwhip effect.

Keywords: Bullwhip Effect, Fuzzy Possibility Measures, Reverse Supply Chain, System Dynamics.

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Authors: Abeer Amayri, Akif A. Bulgak

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Due to today’s globalization as well as outsourcing practices of the companies, the Supply Chain (SC) performances have become more dependent on the efficient movement of material among places that are geographically dispersed, where there is more chance for disruptions. One such disruption is the quality and delivery uncertainties of outsourcing. These uncertainties could lead the products to be unsafe and, as is the case in a number of recent examples, companies may have to end up in recalling their products. As a result of these problems, there is a need to develop a methodology for selecting suppliers globally in view of risks associated with low quality and late delivery. Accordingly, we developed a two-stage stochastic model that captures the risks associated with uncertainty in quality and delivery as well as a solution procedure for the model. The stochastic model developed simultaneously optimizes supplier selection and purchase quantities under price discounts over a time horizon. In particular, our target is the study of global organizations with multiple sites and multiple overseas suppliers, where the pricing is offered in suppliers’ local currencies. Our proposed methodology is applied to a case study for a US automotive company having two assembly plants and four potential global suppliers to illustrate how the proposed model works in practice.

Keywords: Global supply chains, quality, stochastic programming, supplier selection.

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Authors: Dorota Kobus-Ostrowska

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Work for everyone, especially for person with disability is a condition in independence; it secures basic needs and develops manual and intellectual capabilities. The work is a source of income, and it builds and strengthens of self-esteem and competence. The purpose of this article is to identify work as an important factor in everyone’s life, despite Polish disabled persons rarely having the chance to undertake a job. In order to achieve this purpose, two methods were used: comparative and qualitative. The theoretical part of this article is based on studies of a wide range of Polish and foreign literature devoted to the issue of the occupational development of people with disabilities. The article was also enriched with the institutional and legal analysis types of support for people with disabilities in Poland. Currently, a Polish person with disability who wants to enter or return to the labor market is under a special protection. Those entities employing workers with disabilities may obtain a subsidy for the salary of a person with disabilities. Unfortunately, people with disability in Poland rarely participate in the workforce. The factors that contribute to this include the difficulty in obtaining work, the uncertainty of keeping it, and the low salary offered. Despite that domestic and foreign literature highlight the important role of disabled people as a workforce, very few people with disability in Poland are economically active.

Keywords: Disabled person, work, employer, rehabilitation.

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Authors: S. P. Sharma, Monica Rani

Abstract:

In conventional reliability assessment, the reliability data of system components are treated as crisp values. The collected data have some uncertainties due to errors by human beings/machines or any other sources. These uncertainty factors will limit the understanding of system component failure due to the reason of incomplete data. In these situations, we need to generalize classical methods to fuzzy environment for studying and analyzing the systems of interest. Fuzzy set theory has been proposed to handle such vagueness by generalizing the notion of membership in a set. Essentially, in a Fuzzy Set (FS) each element is associated with a point-value selected from the unit interval [0, 1], which is termed as the grade of membership in the set. A Vague Set (VS), as well as an Intuitionistic Fuzzy Set (IFS), is a further generalization of an FS. Instead of using point-based membership as in FS, interval-based membership is used in VS. The interval-based membership in VS is more expressive in capturing vagueness of data. In the present paper, vague set theory coupled with conventional Lambda-Tau method is presented for reliability analysis of repairable systems. The methodology uses Petri nets (PN) to model the system instead of fault tree because it allows efficient simultaneous generation of minimal cuts and path sets. The presented method is illustrated with the press unit of the paper mill.

Keywords: Lambda -Tau methodology, Petri nets, repairable system, vague fuzzy set.

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Authors: Emna Benmohamed, Hela Ltifi, Mounir Ben Ayed

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Bayesian Network (BN) is one of the most efficient classification methods. It is widely used in several fields (i.e., medical diagnostics, risk analysis, bioinformatics research). The BN is defined as a probabilistic graphical model that represents a formalism for reasoning under uncertainty. This classification method has a high-performance rate in the extraction of new knowledge from data. The construction of this model consists of two phases for structure learning and parameter learning. For solving this problem, the K2 algorithm is one of the representative data-driven algorithms, which is based on score and search approach. In addition, the integration of the expert's knowledge in the structure learning process allows the obtainment of the highest accuracy. In this paper, we propose a hybrid approach combining the improvement of the K2 algorithm called K2 algorithm for Parents and Children search (K2PC) and the expert-driven method for learning the structure of BN. The evaluation of the experimental results, using the well-known benchmarks, proves that our K2PC algorithm has better performance in terms of correct structure detection. The real application of our model shows its efficiency in the analysis of the phosphate laundry effluents' impact on the watershed in the Gafsa area (southwestern Tunisia).

Keywords: Classification, Bayesian network; structure learning, K2 algorithm, expert knowledge, surface water analysis.

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Authors: Ishapathik Das

Abstract:

The purpose of this article is to find a method of comparing designs for ordinal regression models using quantile dispersion graphs in the presence of linear predictor misspecification. The true relationship between response variable and the corresponding control variables are usually unknown. Experimenter assumes certain form of the linear predictor of the ordinal regression models. The assumed form of the linear predictor may not be correct always. Thus, the maximum likelihood estimates (MLE) of the unknown parameters of the model may be biased due to misspecification of the linear predictor. In this article, the uncertainty in the linear predictor is represented by an unknown function. An algorithm is provided to estimate the unknown function at the design points where observations are available. The unknown function is estimated at all points in the design region using multivariate parametric kriging. The comparison of the designs are based on a scalar valued function of the mean squared error of prediction (MSEP) matrix, which incorporates both variance and bias of the prediction caused by the misspecification in the linear predictor. The designs are compared using quantile dispersion graphs approach. The graphs also visually depict the robustness of the designs on the changes in the parameter values. Numerical examples are presented to illustrate the proposed methodology.

Keywords: Model misspecification, multivariate kriging, multivariate logistic link, ordinal response models, quantile dispersion graphs.

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Authors: M. R. Ghasemi, R. Ghiasi, H. Varaee

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Surrogate model has received increasing attention for use in detecting damage of structures based on vibration modal parameters. However, uncertainties existing in the measured vibration data may lead to false or unreliable output result from such model. In this study, an efficient approach based on Monte Carlo simulation is proposed to take into account the effect of uncertainties in developing a surrogate model. The probability of damage existence (PDE) is calculated based on the probability density function of the existence of undamaged and damaged states. The kriging technique allows one to genuinely quantify the surrogate error, therefore it is chosen as metamodeling technique. Enhanced version of ideal gas molecular movement (EIGMM) algorithm is used as main algorithm for model updating. The developed approach is applied to detect simulated damage in numerical models of 72-bar space truss and 120-bar dome truss. The simulation results show the proposed method can perform well in probability-based damage detection of structures with less computational effort compared to direct finite element model.

Keywords: Enhanced ideal gas molecular movement, Kriging, probability-based damage detection, probability of damage existence, surrogate modeling, uncertainty quantification.

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Authors: R. Tlili Yaakoubi, H. Nakouri, O. Blanpain, S. Lallahem

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The current tools for real time management of sewer systems are based on two software tools: the software of weather forecast and the software of hydraulic simulation. The use of the first ones is an important cause of imprecision and uncertainty, the use of the second requires temporal important steps of decision because of their need in times of calculation. This way of proceeding fact that the obtained results are generally different from those waited. The major idea of this project is to change the basic paradigm by approaching the problem by the "automatic" face rather than by that "hydrology". The objective is to make possible the realization of a large number of simulations at very short times (a few seconds) allowing to take place weather forecasts by using directly the real time meditative pluviometric data. The aim is to reach a system where the decision-making is realized from reliable data and where the correction of the error is permanent. A first model of control laws was realized and tested with different return-period rainfalls. The gains obtained in rejecting volume vary from 19 to 100 %. The development of a new algorithm was then used to optimize calculation time and thus to overcome the subsequent combinatorial problem in our first approach. Finally, this new algorithm was tested with 16- year-rainfall series. The obtained gains are 40 % of total volume rejected to the natural environment and of 65 % in the number of discharges.

Keywords: Automation, optimization, paradigm, RTC.

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Authors: Nieves M. C. Talavera-Prieto, Abel G. M. Ferreira, António T. G. Portugal, Rui J. Moreira, Jaime B. Santos

Abstract:

The knowledge of biodiesel density over large ranges of temperature and pressure is important for predicting the behavior of fuel injection and combustion systems in diesel engines, and for the optimization of such systems. In this study, cottonseed oil was transesterified into biodiesel and its density was measured at temperatures between 288 K and 358 K and pressures between 0.1 MPa and 30 MPa, with expanded uncertainty estimated as ±1.6 kg⋅m- 3. Experimental pressure-volume-temperature (pVT) cottonseed data was used along with literature data relative to other 18 biodiesels, in order to build a database used to test the correlation of density with temperarure and pressure using the Goharshadi–Morsali–Abbaspour equation of state (GMA EoS). To our knowledge, this is the first that density measurements are presented for cottonseed biodiesel under such high pressures, and the GMA EoS used to model biodiesel density. The new tested EoS allowed correlations within 0.2 kg·m-3 corresponding to average relative deviations within 0.02%. The built database was used to develop and test a new full predictive model derived from the observed linear relation between density and degree of unsaturation (DU), which depended from biodiesel FAMEs profile. The average density deviation of this method was only about 3 kg.m-3 within the temperature and pressure limits of application. These results represent appreciable improvements in the context of density prediction at high pressure when compared with other equations of state.

Keywords: Biodiesel, Correlation, Density, Equation of state, Prediction.

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Authors: Jing Yu Pan, Dahai Liu

Abstract:

Airlines in the US have taken protective measures to battle the COVID-19 pandemic, with a mask mandate being the most important one, especially in the aircraft cabin. As the airline industry is recovering from the pandemic, mask-wearing will eventually become a personal choice during a flight. Nevertheless, COVID-19 will continue to create uncertainty for a long time into the future, making it necessary to understand the attitude and voluntary use of masks by air travelers on airplanes even after masks are no longer mandatory. This study aimed to understand the relationship between demographic characteristics and mask-wearing intention in the US. For age, gender, income, educational, and ethnicity groups, this study examined three factors – subjective norms, risk avoidance, and information seeking and their influence on the mask-wearing intention onboard airplanes during COVID-19, and whether or not attitude toward masks was an important mediator. The results show that all demographic factors except gender could help to explain the group variations in factor impact and the mediating effect in mask-wearing intentions. In particular, Asian travelers had mask-wearing intentions that were not affected by attitude either directly or indirectly. These findings provide useful implications to enhance the health safety of air travelers, especially in the US where opposing views toward mask-wearing still widely exist.

Keywords: COVID-19, passenger demographics, aircraft cabin, mask-wearing intention, attitude as mediator.

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Authors: A. M. Pashayev, D. D. Askerov, C. Ardil, R. A. Sadiqov, P. S. Abdullayev

Abstract:

Researches show that probability-statistical methods application, especially at the early stage of the aviation Gas Turbine Engine (GTE) technical condition diagnosing, when the flight information has property of the fuzzy, limitation and uncertainty is unfounded. Hence the efficiency of application of new technology Soft Computing at these diagnosing stages with the using of the Fuzzy Logic and Neural Networks methods is considered. According to the purpose of this problem training with high accuracy of fuzzy multiple linear and non-linear models (fuzzy regression equations) which received on the statistical fuzzy data basis is made. For GTE technical condition more adequate model making dynamics of skewness and kurtosis coefficients- changes are analysed. Researches of skewness and kurtosis coefficients values- changes show that, distributions of GTE workand output parameters of the multiple linear and non-linear generalised models at presence of noise measured (the new recursive Least Squares Method (LSM)). The developed GTE condition monitoring system provides stage-by-stage estimation of engine technical conditions. As application of the given technique the estimation of the new operating aviation engine technical condition was made.

Keywords: aviation gas turbine engine, technical condition, fuzzy logic, neural networks, fuzzy statistics

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Authors: Abbas Siefi, Mohammad Javad Karimifar

Abstract:

We study the spatial design of experiment and we want to select a most informative subset, having prespecified size, from a set of correlated random variables. The problem arises in many applied domains, such as meteorology, environmental statistics, and statistical geology. In these applications, observations can be collected at different locations and possibly at different times. In spatial design, when the design region and the set of interest are discrete then the covariance matrix completely describe any objective function and our goal is to choose a feasible design that minimizes the resulting uncertainty. The problem is recast as that of maximizing the determinant of the covariance matrix of the chosen subset. This problem is NP-hard. For using these designs in computer experiments, in many cases, the design space is very large and it's not possible to calculate the exact optimal solution. Heuristic optimization methods can discover efficient experiment designs in situations where traditional designs cannot be applied, exchange methods are ineffective and exact solution not possible. We developed a GA algorithm to take advantage of the exploratory power of this algorithm. The successful application of this method is demonstrated in large design space. We consider a real case of design of experiment. In our problem, design space is very large and for solving the problem, we used proposed GA algorithm.

Keywords: Spatial design of experiments, maximum entropy sampling, computer experiments, genetic algorithm.

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