Search results for: Statistical models and Timed automata

Authors: Ammar Mahjoubi, Ridha Fethi Mechlouch, Belgacem Mahdhaoui, Ammar Ben Brahim

Abstract:

This purpose of this paper is to develop and validate a model to accurately predict the cell temperature of a PV module that adapts to various mounting configurations, mounting locations, and climates while only requiring readily available data from the module manufacturer. Results from this model are also compared to results from published cell temperature models. The models were used to predict real-time performance from a PV water pumping systems in the desert of Medenine, south of Tunisia using 60-min intervals of measured performance data during one complete year. Statistical analysis of the predicted results and measured data highlight possible sources of errors and the limitations and/or adequacy of existing models, to describe the temperature and efficiency of PV-cells and consequently, the accuracy of performance of PV water pumping systems prediction models.

Keywords: Temperature of a photovoltaic module, Predicted models, PV water pumping systems efficiency, Simulation, Desert of southern Tunisia.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1797

Authors: Nnamdi I. Nwulu, Shola G. Oroja

Abstract:

It has become crucial over the years for nations to improve their credit scoring methods and techniques in light of the increasing volatility of the global economy. Statistical methods or tools have been the favoured means for this; however artificial intelligence or soft computing based techniques are becoming increasingly preferred due to their proficient and precise nature and relative simplicity. This work presents a comparison between Support Vector Machines and Artificial Neural Networks two popular soft computing models when applied to credit scoring. Amidst the different criteria-s that can be used for comparisons; accuracy, computational complexity and processing times are the selected criteria used to evaluate both models. Furthermore the German credit scoring dataset which is a real world dataset is used to train and test both developed models. Experimental results obtained from our study suggest that although both soft computing models could be used with a high degree of accuracy, Artificial Neural Networks deliver better results than Support Vector Machines.

Keywords: Artificial Neural Networks, Credit Scoring, SoftComputing Models, Support Vector Machines.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2089

Authors: Mohamed Elhakeem, A. N. Thanos Papanicolaou, Christopher Wilson, Yi-Jia Chang

Abstract:

In this study, a physically-based, modeling framework was developed to predict saturated hydraulic conductivity (K_sat) dynamics in the Clear Creek Watershed (CCW), Iowa. The modeling framework integrated selected pedotransfer functions and watershed models with geospatial tools. A number of pedotransfer functions and agricultural watershed models were examined to select the appropriate models that represent the study site conditions. Models selection was based on statistical measures of the models’ errors compared to the K_sat field measurements conducted in the CCW under different soil, climate and land use conditions. The study has shown that the predictions of the combined pedotransfer function of Rosetta and the Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) provided the best agreement to the measured K_sat values in the CCW compared to the other tested models. Therefore, Rosetta and WEPP were integrated with the Geographic Information System (GIS) tools for visualization of the data in forms of geospatial maps and prediction of K_sat variability in CCW due to the seasonal changes in climate and land use activities. 

Keywords: Saturated hydraulic conductivity, pedotransfer functions, watershed models, geospatial tools.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2487

Authors: Shuimiao Wan, Chao Yuan, Baoguang Tian

Abstract:

In this paper, a linear mixed model which has two random effects is broken up into two models. This thesis gets the parameter estimation of the original model and an estimation’s statistical qualities based on these two models. Then many important properties are given by comparing this estimation with other general estimations. At the same time, this paper proves the analysis of variance estimate (ANOVAE) about σ2 of the original model is equal to the least-squares estimation (LSE) about σ2 of these two models. Finally, it also proves that this estimation is better than ANOVAE under Stein function and special condition in some degree.

Keywords: Linear mixed model, Random effects, Parameter estimation, Stein function.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1773

Authors: Hui-Min Ting, Tsair-Fwu Lee, Ming-Yuan Cho, Pei-Ju Chao, Chun-Ming Chang, Long-Chang Chen, Fu-Min Fang

Abstract:

To evaluate the ability to predict xerostomia after radiotherapy, we constructed and compared neural network and logistic regression models. In this study, 61 patients who completed a questionnaire about their quality of life (QoL) before and after a full course of radiation therapy were included. Based on this questionnaire, some statistical data about the condition of the patients’ salivary glands were obtained, and these subjects were included as the inputs of the neural network and logistic regression models in order to predict the probability of xerostomia. Seven variables were then selected from the statistical data according to Cramer’s V and point-biserial correlation values and were trained by each model to obtain the respective outputs which were 0.88 and 0.89 for AUC, 9.20 and 7.65 for SSE, and 13.7% and 19.0% for MAPE, respectively. These parameters demonstrate that both neural network and logistic regression methods are effective for predicting conditions of parotid glands.

Keywords: NPC, ANN, logistic regression, xerostomia.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1593

Authors: Riad S. Jabri

Abstract:

Pattern matching based on regular tree grammars have been widely used in many areas of computer science. In this paper, we propose a pattern matcher within the framework of code generation, based on a generic and a formalized approach. According to this approach, parsers for regular tree grammars are adapted to a general pattern matching solution, rather than adapting the pattern matching according to their parsing behavior. Hence, we first formalize the construction of the pattern matches respective to input trees drawn from a regular tree grammar in a form of the so-called match trees. Then, we adopt a recently developed generic parser and tightly couple its parsing behavior with such construction. In addition to its generality, the resulting pattern matcher is characterized by its soundness and efficient implementation. This is demonstrated by the proposed theory and by the derived algorithms for its implementation. A comparison with similar and well-known approaches, such as the ones based on tree automata and LR parsers, has shown that our pattern matcher can be applied to a broader class of grammars, and achieves better approximation of pattern matches in one pass. Furthermore, its use as a machine code selector is characterized by a minimized overhead, due to the balanced distribution of the cost computations into static ones, during parser generation time, and into dynamic ones, during parsing time.

Keywords: Bottom-up automata, Code selection, Pattern matching, Regular tree grammars, Match trees.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1221

Authors: Jihad S. Daba, J. P. Dubois

Abstract:

Understanding the statistics of non-isotropic scattering multipath channels that fade randomly with respect to time, frequency, and space in a mobile environment is very crucial for the accurate detection of received signals in wireless and cellular communication systems. In this paper, we derive stochastic models for the probability density function (PDF) of the shift in the carrier frequency caused by the Doppler Effect on the received illuminating signal in the presence of a dominant line of sight. Our derivation is based on a generalized Clarke’s and a two-wave partially developed scattering models, where the statistical distribution of the frequency shift is shown to be consistent with the power spectral density of the Doppler shifted signal.

Keywords: Doppler shift, filtered Poisson process, generalized Clark’s model, non-isotropic scattering, partially developed scattering, Rician distribution.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 790

Authors: Y. Lu, X. S. Qin

Abstract:

Extensive rainfall disaggregation approaches have been developed and applied in climate change impact studies such as flood risk assessment and urban storm water management.In this study, five rainfall models that were capable ofdisaggregating daily rainfall data into hourly one were investigated for the rainfall record in theChangi Airport, Singapore. The objectives of this study were (i) to study the temporal characteristics of hourly rainfall in Singapore, and (ii) to evaluate the performance of variousdisaggregation models. The used models included: (i) Rectangular pulse Poisson model (RPPM), (ii) Bartlett-Lewis Rectangular pulse model (BLRPM), (iii) Bartlett-Lewis model with 2 cell types (BL2C), (iv) Bartlett-Lewis Rectangular with cell depth distribution dependent on duration (BLRD), and (v) Neyman-Scott Rectangular pulse model (NSRPM). All of these models werefitted using hourly rainfall data ranging from 1980 to 2005 (which was obtained from Changimeteorological station).The study results indicated that the weight scheme of inversely proportional variance could deliver more accurateoutputs for fitting rainfall patterns in tropical areas, and BLRPM performedrelatively better than other disaggregation models.

Keywords: Rainfall disaggregation, statistical properties, poisson processed, Bartlett-Lewis model, Neyman-Scott model.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2242

Authors: Kenneth M. Oba

Abstract:

Adequate management, control, and optimization of cost is an essential element for a successful construction project. A multiple linear regression optimization model was formulated to address the problem of costs associated with pile construction operations. A total of 32 PVC-reinforced concrete piles with diameter of 300 mm, 5.4 m long, were studied during the construction. The soil upon which the piles were installed was mostly silty sand, and completely submerged in water at Bonny, Nigeria. The piles are friction piles installed by boring method, using a piling auger. The volumes of soil removed, the weight of reinforcement cage installed, and volumes of fresh concrete poured into the PVC void were determined. The cost of constructing each pile based on the calculated quantities was determined. A model was derived and subjected to statistical tests using Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS) software. The model turned out to be adequate, fit, and have a high predictive accuracy with an R2 value of 0.833.

Keywords: Cost optimization modelling, multiple linear models, pile construction, regression models.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 100

Authors: Hyunchul Ahn, Kyoung-Jae Kim

Abstract:

Corporate credit rating prediction using statistical and artificial intelligence (AI) techniques has been one of the attractive research topics in the literature. In recent years, multiclass classification models such as artificial neural network (ANN) or multiclass support vector machine (MSVM) have become a very appealing machine learning approaches due to their good performance. However, most of them have only focused on classifying samples into nominal categories, thus the unique characteristic of the credit rating - ordinality - has been seldom considered in their approaches. This study proposes new types of ANN and MSVM classifiers, which are named OMANN and OMSVM respectively. OMANN and OMSVM are designed to extend binary ANN or SVM classifiers by applying ordinal pairwise partitioning (OPP) strategy. These models can handle ordinal multiple classes efficiently and effectively. To validate the usefulness of these two models, we applied them to the real-world bond rating case. We compared the results of our models to those of conventional approaches. The experimental results showed that our proposed models improve classification accuracy in comparison to typical multiclass classification techniques with the reduced computation resource.

Keywords: Artificial neural network, Corporate credit rating, Support vector machines, Ordinal pairwise partitioning

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 3382

Authors: Andrea Bellucci, Martina Tofi

Abstract:

The aim of paper is to analyze business models of bancassurance in Italy for life business. The life insurance business is very developed in the Italian market and banks branches have 80% of the market share. Given its maturity, the life insurance market needs to consolidate its organizational form to allow for the development of non-life business, which nowadays collects few premiums but represents a great opportunity to enlarge the market share of bancassurance using its strength in the distribution channel while the market share of independent agents is decreasing. Starting with the main business model of bancassurance for life business, this paper will analyze the performances of life companies in the Italian market by balance sheet indicators and by main discriminant variables of business models. The study will observe trends from 2013 to 2015 for the Italian market by exploiting a database managed by Associazione Nazionale delle Imprese di Assicurazione (ANIA). The applied approach is based on a bottom-up analysis starting with variables and indicators to define business models’ classification. The statistical classification algorithm proposed by Ward is employed to design business models’ profiles. Results from the analysis will be a representation of the main business models built by their profile related to indicators. In that way, an unsupervised analysis is developed that has the limit of its judgmental dimension based on research opinion, but it is possible to obtain a design of effective business models.

Keywords: Balance sheet indicators, Bancassurance, business models, ward algorithm.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1222

Authors: J. P. Dubois, O. M. Abdul-Latif

Abstract:

Support Vector Machine (SVM) is a recent class of statistical classification and regression techniques playing an increasing role in applications to detection problems in various engineering problems, notably in statistical signal processing, pattern recognition, image analysis, and communication systems. In this paper, SVM is applied to an infrared (IR) binary communication system with different types of channel models including Ricean multipath fading and partially developed scattering channel with additive white Gaussian noise (AWGN) at the receiver. The structure and performance of SVM in terms of the bit error rate (BER) metric is derived and simulated for these channel stochastic models and the computational complexity of the implementation, in terms of average computational time per bit, is also presented. The performance of SVM is then compared to classical binary signal maximum likelihood detection using a matched filter driven by On-Off keying (OOK) modulation. We found that the performance of SVM is superior to that of the traditional optimal detection schemes used in statistical communication, especially for very low signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) ranges. For large SNR, the performance of the SVM is similar to that of the classical detectors. The implication of these results is that SVM can prove very beneficial to IR communication systems that notoriously suffer from low SNR at the cost of increased computational complexity.

Keywords: Least square-support vector machine, on-off keying, matched filter, maximum likelihood detector, wireless infrared communication.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1912

Authors: N. Sopipan

Abstract:

In this paper, we study the rainfall using a time series for weather stations in Nakhon Ratchasima province in Thailand by various statistical methods to enable us to analyse the behaviour of rainfall in the study areas. Time-series analysis is an important tool in modelling and forecasting rainfall. The ARIMA and Holt-Winter models were built on the basis of exponential smoothing. All the models proved to be adequate. Therefore it is possible to give information that can help decision makers establish strategies for the proper planning of agriculture, drainage systems and other water resource applications in Nakhon Ratchasima province. We obtained the best performance from forecasting with the ARIMA Model(1,0,1)(1,0,1)12.

Keywords: ARIMA Models, Exponential Smoothing, Holt- Winter model.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2632

Authors: Y. N. Phang, E. F. Loh

Abstract:

Many researchers have suggested the use of zero inflated Poisson (ZIP) and zero inflated negative binomial (ZINB) models in modeling overdispersed medical count data with extra variations caused by extra zeros and unobserved heterogeneity. The studies indicate that ZIP and ZINB always provide better fit than using the normal Poisson and negative binomial models in modeling overdispersed medical count data. In this study, we proposed the use of Zero Inflated Inverse Trinomial (ZIIT), Zero Inflated Poisson Inverse Gaussian (ZIPIG) and zero inflated strict arcsine models in modeling overdispered medical count data. These proposed models are not widely used by many researchers especially in the medical field. The results show that these three suggested models can serve as alternative models in modeling overdispersed medical count data. This is supported by the application of these suggested models to a real life medical data set. Inverse trinomial, Poisson inverse Gaussian and strict arcsine are discrete distributions with cubic variance function of mean. Therefore, ZIIT, ZIPIG and ZISA are able to accommodate data with excess zeros and very heavy tailed. They are recommended to be used in modeling overdispersed medical count data when ZIP and ZINB are inadequate.

Keywords: Zero inflated, inverse trinomial distribution, Poisson inverse Gaussian distribution, strict arcsine distribution, Pearson’s goodness of fit.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 3260

Authors: Mohammad Namazi, Mohammad Sadeghzadeh Maharluie

Abstract:

Predicting earnings management is vital for the capital market participants, financial analysts and managers. The aim of this research is attempting to respond to this query: Is there a significant difference between the regression model and neural networks’ models in predicting earnings management, and which one leads to a superior prediction of it? In approaching this question, a Linear Regression (LR) model was compared with two neural networks including Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP), and Generalized Regression Neural Network (GRNN). The population of this study includes 94 listed companies in Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE) market from 2003 to 2011. After the results of all models were acquired, ANOVA was exerted to test the hypotheses. In general, the summary of statistical results showed that the precision of GRNN did not exhibit a significant difference in comparison with MLP. In addition, the mean square error of the MLP and GRNN showed a significant difference with the multi variable LR model. These findings support the notion of nonlinear behavior of the earnings management. Therefore, it is more appropriate for capital market participants to analyze earnings management based upon neural networks techniques, and not to adopt linear regression models.

Keywords: Earnings management, generalized regression neural networks, linear regression, multi-layer perceptron, Tehran stock exchange.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2057

Authors: Yan Su, L. C. Chan

Abstract:

A novel typical day prediction model have been built and validated by the measured data of a grid-connected solar photovoltaic (PV) system in Macau. Unlike conventional statistical method used by previous study on PV systems which get results by averaging nearby continuous points, the present typical day statistical method obtain the value at every minute in a typical day by averaging discontinuous points at the same minute in different days. This typical day statistical method based on discontinuous point averaging makes it possible for us to obtain the Gaussian shape dynamical distributions for solar irradiance and output power in a yearly or monthly typical day. Based on the yearly typical day statistical analysis results, the maximum possible accumulated output energy in a year with on site climate conditions and the corresponding optimal PV system running time are obtained. Periodic Gaussian shape prediction models for solar irradiance, output energy and system energy efficiency have been built and their coefficients have been determined based on the yearly, maximum and minimum monthly typical day Gaussian distribution parameters, which are obtained from iterations for minimum Root Mean Squared Deviation (RMSD). With the present model, the dynamical effects due to time difference in a day are kept and the day to day uncertainty due to weather changing are smoothed but still included. The periodic Gaussian shape correlations for solar irradiance, output power and system energy efficiency have been compared favorably with data of the PV system in Macau and proved to be an improvement than previous models.

Keywords: Grid Connected, RMSD, Solar PV System, Typical Day.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1638

Authors: M. A. Meslem

Abstract:

For precise geoid determination, we use a reference field to subtract long and medium wavelength of the gravity field from observations data when we use the remove-compute-restore technique. Therefore, a comparison study between considered models should be made in order to select the optimal reference gravity field to be used. In this context, two recent global geopotential models have been selected to perform this comparison study over Northern Algeria. The Earth Gravitational Model (EGM2008) and the Global Gravity Model (GECO) conceived with a combination of the first model with anomalous potential derived from a GOCE satellite-only global model. Free air gravity anomalies in the area under study have been used to compute residual data using both gravity field models and a Digital Terrain Model (DTM) to subtract the residual terrain effect from the gravity observations. Residual data were used to generate local empirical covariance functions and their fitting to the closed form in order to compare their statistical behaviors according to both cases. Finally, height anomalies were computed from both geopotential models and compared to a set of GPS levelled points on benchmarks using least squares adjustment. The result described in details in this paper regarding these two models has pointed out a slight advantage of GECO global model globally through error degree variances comparison and ground-truth evaluation.

Keywords: Quasigeoid, gravity anomalies, covariance, GGM.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 825

Authors: Parvinder S. Sandhu, Manisha Prashar, Pourush Bassi, Atul Bisht

Abstract:

Software effort estimation is the process of predicting the most realistic use of effort required to develop or maintain software based on incomplete, uncertain and/or noisy input. Effort estimates may be used as input to project plans, iteration plans, budgets. There are various models like Halstead, Walston-Felix, Bailey-Basili, Doty and GA Based models which have already used to estimate the software effort for projects. In this study Statistical Models, Fuzzy-GA and Neuro-Fuzzy (NF) Inference Systems are experimented to estimate the software effort for projects. The performances of the developed models were tested on NASA software project datasets and results are compared with the Halstead, Walston-Felix, Bailey-Basili, Doty and Genetic Algorithm Based models mentioned in the literature. The result shows that the NF Model has the lowest MMRE and RMSE values. The NF Model shows the best results as compared with the Fuzzy-GA based hybrid Inference System and other existing Models that are being used for the Effort Prediction with lowest MMRE and RMSE values.

Keywords: Neuro-Fuzzy Model, Halstead Model, Walston-Felix Model, Bailey-Basili Model, Doty Model, GA Based Model, Genetic Algorithm.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 3176

Authors: Snezhana G. Gocheva-Ilieva, Maya P. Stoimenova

Abstract:

Ambient air pollution with fine particulate matter (PM10) is a systematic permanent problem in many countries around the world. The accumulation of a large number of measurements of both the PM10 concentrations and the accompanying atmospheric factors allow for their statistical modeling to detect dependencies and forecast future pollution. This study applies the classification and regression trees (CART) method for building and analyzing PM10 models. In the empirical study, average daily air data for the city of Pleven, Bulgaria for a period of 5 years are used. Predictors in the models are seven meteorological variables, time variables, as well as lagged PM10 variables and some lagged meteorological variables, delayed by 1 or 2 days with respect to the initial time series, respectively. The degree of influence of the predictors in the models is determined. The selected best CART models are used to forecast future PM10 concentrations for two days ahead after the last date in the modeling procedure and show very accurate results.

Keywords: Cross-validation, decision tree, lagged variables, short-term forecasting.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 660

Authors: Mária Stachová, Lukáš Sobíšek

Abstract:

Data mining incorporates a group of statistical methods used to analyze a set of information, or a data set. It operates with models and algorithms, which are powerful tools with the great potential. They can help people to understand the patterns in certain chunk of information so it is obvious that the data mining tools have a wide area of applications. For example in the theoretical chemistry data mining tools can be used to predict moleculeproperties or improve computer-assisted drug design. Classification analysis is one of the major data mining methodologies. The aim of thecontribution is to create a classification model, which would be able to deal with a huge data set with high accuracy. For this purpose logistic regression, Bayesian logistic regression and random forest models were built using R software. TheBayesian logistic regression in Latent GOLD software was created as well. These classification methods belong to supervised learning methods. It was necessary to reduce data matrix dimension before construct models and thus the factor analysis (FA) was used. Those models were applied to predict the biological activity of molecules, potential new drug candidates.

Keywords: data mining, classification, drug design, QSAR

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2795

Authors: L. J. de Bessa Neto, V. S. Filho, J. V. Ferreira Nunes, G. C. Bergamo

Abstract:

There are many situations in which human activities have significant effects on the environment. Damage to the ozone layer is one of them. The objective of this work is to use the Least Squares Method, considering the linear, exponential, logarithmic, power and polynomial models of the second degree, to analyze through the coefficient of determination (R²), which model best fits the behavior of the chlorodifluoromethane (HCFC-142b) in parts per trillion between 1992 and 2018, as well as estimates of future concentrations between 5 and 10 periods, i.e. the concentration of this pollutant in the years 2023 and 2028 in each of the adjustments. A total of 809 observations of the concentration of HCFC-142b in one of the monitoring stations of gases precursors of the deterioration of the ozone layer during the period of time studied were selected and, using these data, the statistical software Excel was used for make the scatter plots of each of the adjustment models. With the development of the present study, it was observed that the logarithmic fit was the model that best fit the data set, since besides having a significant R² its adjusted curve was compatible with the natural trend curve of the phenomenon.

Keywords: Chlorodifluoromethane (HCFC-142b), ozone (O3), least squares method, regression models.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 753

Authors: Nishi Bhuvandas, P. V. Timbadiya, P. L. Patel, P. D. Porey

Abstract:

Recent perceived climate variability raises concerns with unprecedented hydrological phenomena and extremes. Distribution and circulation of the waters of the Earth become increasingly difficult to determine because of additional uncertainty related to anthropogenic emissions. The world wide observed changes in the large-scale hydrological cycle have been related to an increase in the observed temperature over several decades. Although the effect of change in climate on hydrology provides a general picture of possible hydrological global change, new tools and frameworks for modelling hydrological series with nonstationary characteristics at finer scales, are required for assessing climate change impacts. Of the downscaling techniques, dynamic downscaling is usually based on the use of Regional Climate Models (RCMs), which generate finer resolution output based on atmospheric physics over a region using General Circulation Model (GCM) fields as boundary conditions. However, RCMs are not expected to capture the observed spatial precipitation extremes at a fine cell scale or at a basin scale. Statistical downscaling derives a statistical or empirical relationship between the variables simulated by the GCMs, called predictors, and station-scale hydrologic variables, called predictands. The main focus of the paper is on the need for using statistical downscaling techniques for projection of local hydrometeorological variables under climate change scenarios. The projections can be then served as a means of input source to various hydrologic models to obtain streamflow, evapotranspiration, soil moisture and other hydrological variables of interest.

Keywords: Climate Change, Downscaling, GCM, RCM.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 3310

Authors: Hyun-Woo Cho

Abstract:

Detection of incipient abnormal events is important to improve safety and reliability of machine operations and reduce losses caused by failures. Improper set-ups or aligning of parts often leads to severe problems in many machines. The construction of prediction models for predicting faulty conditions is quite essential in making decisions on when to perform machine maintenance. This paper presents a multivariate calibration monitoring approach based on the statistical analysis of machine measurement data. The calibration model is used to predict two faulty conditions from historical reference data. This approach utilizes genetic algorithms (GA) based variable selection, and we evaluate the predictive performance of several prediction methods using real data. The results shows that the calibration model based on supervised probabilistic principal component analysis (SPPCA) yielded best performance in this work. By adopting a proper variable selection scheme in calibration models, the prediction performance can be improved by excluding non-informative variables from their model building steps.

Keywords: Prediction, operation monitoring, on-line data, nonlinear statistical methods, empirical model.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1620

Authors: Mohammad Ali Tabarzad, Caro Lucas, Ali Hamzeh

Abstract:

Adaptive Genetic Algorithms extend the Standard Gas to use dynamic procedures to apply evolutionary operators such as crossover, mutation and selection. In this paper, we try to propose a new adaptive genetic algorithm, which is based on the statistical information of the population as a guideline to tune its crossover, selection and mutation operators. This algorithms is called Statistical Genetic Algorithm and is compared with traditional GA in some benchmark problems.

Keywords: Genetic Algorithms, Statistical Information ofthe Population, PAUX, SSO.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1694

Authors: Efstratios Doukakis, Nikolaos Petrelis

Abstract:

All climate models agree that the temperature in Greece will increase in the range of 1° to 2°C by the year 2030 and mean sea level in Mediterranean is expected to rise at the rate of 5 cm/decade. The aim of the present paper is the estimation of the coastline displacement driven by the climate change and sea level rise. In order to achieve that, all known statistical and non-statistical computational methods are employed on some Greek coastal areas. Furthermore, Kalman filtering techniques are for the first time introduced, formulated and tested. Based on all the above, shoreline change signals and noises are computed and an inter-comparison between the different methods can be deduced to help evaluating which method is most promising as far as the retrieve of shoreline change rate is concerned.

Keywords: Climate Change, Coastal Displacement, KalmanFilter

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1357

Authors: A. M. Pashayev, D. D. Askerov, C. Ardil, R. A. Sadiqov, P. S. Abdullayev

Abstract:

Researches show that probability-statistical methods application, especially at the early stage of the aviation Gas Turbine Engine (GTE) technical condition diagnosing, when the flight information has property of the fuzzy, limitation and uncertainty is unfounded. Hence the efficiency of application of new technology Soft Computing at these diagnosing stages with the using of the Fuzzy Logic and Neural Networks methods is considered. According to the purpose of this problem training with high accuracy of fuzzy multiple linear and non-linear models (fuzzy regression equations) which received on the statistical fuzzy data basis is made. For GTE technical condition more adequate model making dynamics of skewness and kurtosis coefficients- changes are analysed. Researches of skewness and kurtosis coefficients values- changes show that, distributions of GTE work parameters have fuzzy character. Hence consideration of fuzzy skewness and kurtosis coefficients is expedient. Investigation of the basic characteristics changes- dynamics of GTE work parameters allows drawing conclusion on necessity of the Fuzzy Statistical Analysis at preliminary identification of the engines' technical condition. Researches of correlation coefficients values- changes shows also on their fuzzy character. Therefore for models choice the application of the Fuzzy Correlation Analysis results is offered. At the information sufficiency is offered to use recurrent algorithm of aviation GTE technical condition identification (Hard Computing technology is used) on measurements of input and output parameters of the multiple linear and non-linear generalised models at presence of noise measured (the new recursive Least Squares Method (LSM)). The developed GTE condition monitoring system provides stageby- stage estimation of engine technical conditions. As application of the given technique the estimation of the new operating aviation engine technical condition was made.

Keywords: aviation gas turbine engine, technical condition, fuzzy logic, neural networks, fuzzy statistics

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1527

Authors: Bharathi P. T, P. Subashini

Abstract:

Ice cover County has a significant impact on rivers as it affects with the ice melting capacity which results in flooding, restrict navigation, modify the ecosystem and microclimate. River ices are made up of different ice types with varying ice thickness, so surveillance of river ice plays an important role. River ice types are captured using infrared imaging camera which captures the images even during the night times. In this paper the river ice infrared texture images are analysed using first-order statistical methods and secondorder statistical methods. The second order statistical methods considered are spatial gray level dependence method, gray level run length method and gray level difference method. The performance of the feature extraction methods are evaluated by using Probabilistic Neural Network classifier and it is found that the first-order statistical method and second-order statistical method yields low accuracy. So the features extracted from the first-order statistical method and second-order statistical method are combined and it is observed that the result of these combined features (First order statistical method + gray level run length method) provides higher accuracy when compared with the features from the first-order statistical method and second-order statistical method alone.

Keywords: Gray Level Difference Method, Gray Level Run Length Method, Kurtosis, Probabilistic Neural Network, Skewness, Spatial Gray Level Dependence Method.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2851

Authors: Mahmoud Elmezain, Samar El-shinawy

Abstract:

Many approaches to pattern recognition are founded on probability theory, and can be broadly characterized as either generative or discriminative according to whether or not the distribution of the image features. Generative and discriminative models have very different characteristics, as well as complementary strengths and weaknesses. In this paper, we study these models to recognize the patterns of alphabet characters (A-Z) and numbers (0-9). To handle isolated pattern, generative model as Hidden Markov Model (HMM) and discriminative models like Conditional Random Field (CRF), Hidden Conditional Random Field (HCRF) and Latent-Dynamic Conditional Random Field (LDCRF) with different number of window size are applied on extracted pattern features. The gesture recognition rate is improved initially as the window size increase, but degrades as window size increase further. Experimental results show that the LDCRF is the best in terms of results than CRF, HCRF and HMM at window size equal 4. Additionally, our results show that; an overall recognition rates are 91.52%, 95.28%, 96.94% and 98.05% for CRF, HCRF, HMM and LDCRF respectively.

Keywords: Statistical Pattern Recognition, Generative Model, Discriminative Model, Human Computer Interaction.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2861

Authors: Vladimir S. Timofeev

Abstract:

In this article the problem of distributional moments estimation is considered. The new approach of moments estimation based on usage of the characteristic function is proposed. By statistical simulation technique author shows that new approach has some robust properties. For calculation of the derivatives of characteristic function there is used numerical differentiation. Obtained results confirmed that author’s idea has a certain working efficiency and it can be recommended for any statistical applications.

Keywords: Characteristic function, distributional moments, robustness, outlier, statistical estimation problem, statistical simulation.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2212

Authors: Y. Tiamaz, N. Souissi

Abstract:

The purpose of this paper is to present a classification of Lean models which aims to capture all the concepts related to this approach and thus facilitate its implementation. This classification allows the identification of the most relevant models according to several dimensions. From this perspective, we present a review and an analysis of Lean models literature and we propose dimensions for the classification of the current proposals while respecting among others the axes of the Lean approach, the maturity of the models as well as their application domains. This classification allowed us to conclude that researchers essentially consider the Lean approach as a toolbox also they design their models to solve problems related to a specific environment. Since Lean approach is no longer intended only for the automotive sector where it was invented, but to all fields (IT, Hospital, ...), we consider that this approach requires a generic model that is capable of being implemented in all areas.

Keywords: Lean approach, lean models, classification, dimensions, holistic view.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1193