Search results for: Statistical and probabilistic approaches
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 2489

Search results for: Statistical and probabilistic approaches

2459 Methodologies for Crack Initiation in Welded Joints Applied to Inspection Planning

Authors: Guang Zou, Kian Banisoleiman, Arturo González

Abstract:

Crack initiation and propagation threatens structural integrity of welded joints and normally inspections are assigned based on crack propagation models. However, the approach based on crack propagation models may not be applicable for some high-quality welded joints, because the initial flaws in them may be so small that it may take long time for the flaws to develop into a detectable size. This raises a concern regarding the inspection planning of high-quality welded joins, as there is no generally acceptable approach for modeling the whole fatigue process that includes the crack initiation period. In order to address the issue, this paper reviews treatment methods for crack initiation period and initial crack size in crack propagation models applied to inspection planning. Generally, there are four approaches, by: 1) Neglecting the crack initiation period and fitting a probabilistic distribution for initial crack size based on statistical data; 2) Extrapolating the crack propagation stage to a very small fictitious initial crack size, so that the whole fatigue process can be modeled by crack propagation models; 3) Assuming a fixed detectable initial crack size and fitting a probabilistic distribution for crack initiation time based on specimen tests; and, 4) Modeling the crack initiation and propagation stage separately using small crack growth theories and Paris law or similar models. The conclusion is that in view of trade-off between accuracy and computation efforts, calibration of a small fictitious initial crack size to S-N curves is the most efficient approach.

Keywords: Crack initiation, fatigue reliability, inspection planning, welded joints.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1334
2458 Estimation of Broadcast Probability in Wireless Adhoc Networks

Authors: Bharadwaj Kadiyala, Sunitha V

Abstract:

Most routing protocols (DSR, AODV etc.) that have been designed for wireless adhoc networks incorporate the broadcasting operation in their route discovery scheme. Probabilistic broadcasting techniques have been developed to optimize the broadcast operation which is otherwise very expensive in terms of the redundancy and the traffic it generates. In this paper we have explored percolation theory to gain a different perspective on probabilistic broadcasting schemes which have been actively researched in the recent years. This theory has helped us estimate the value of broadcast probability in a wireless adhoc network as a function of the size of the network. We also show that, operating at those optimal values of broadcast probability there is at least 25-30% reduction in packet regeneration during successful broadcasting.

Keywords: Crossover length, Percolation, Probabilistic broadcast, Wireless adhoc networks

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1539
2457 A Brief Study about Nonparametric Adherence Tests

Authors: Vinicius R. Domingues, Luan C. S. M. Ozelim

Abstract:

The statistical study has become indispensable for various fields of knowledge. Not any different, in Geotechnics the study of probabilistic and statistical methods has gained power considering its use in characterizing the uncertainties inherent in soil properties. One of the situations where engineers are constantly faced is the definition of a probability distribution that represents significantly the sampled data. To be able to discard bad distributions, goodness-of-fit tests are necessary. In this paper, three non-parametric goodness-of-fit tests are applied to a data set computationally generated to test the goodness-of-fit of them to a series of known distributions. It is shown that the use of normal distribution does not always provide satisfactory results regarding physical and behavioral representation of the modeled parameters.

Keywords: Kolmogorov-Smirnov, Anderson-Darling, Cramer-Von-Mises, Nonparametric adherence tests.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1782
2456 The Research Approaches on Crisis and its Management

Authors: M. Mikušová, P. Horváthová

Abstract:

The paper structures research approaches to the crisis and its management. It focuses on approaches – psychological, sociological, economic, ethical and technological. Furthermore, it describes the basic features of models chosen according to those approaches. By their comparison it shows how the crisis influences organizations and individuals, and their mutual interaction.

Keywords: approaches, crisis, model.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1259
2455 Improving Flash Flood Forecasting with a Bayesian Probabilistic Approach: A Case Study on the Posina Basin in Italy

Authors: Zviad Ghadua, Biswa Bhattacharya

Abstract:

The Flash Flood Guidance (FFG) provides the rainfall amount of a given duration necessary to cause flooding. The approach is based on the development of rainfall-runoff curves, which helps us to find out the rainfall amount that would cause flooding. An alternative approach, mostly experimented with Italian Alpine catchments, is based on determining threshold discharges from past events and on finding whether or not an oncoming flood has its magnitude more than some critical discharge thresholds found beforehand. Both approaches suffer from large uncertainties in forecasting flash floods as, due to the simplistic approach followed, the same rainfall amount may or may not cause flooding. This uncertainty leads to the question whether a probabilistic model is preferable over a deterministic one in forecasting flash floods. We propose the use of a Bayesian probabilistic approach in flash flood forecasting. A prior probability of flooding is derived based on historical data. Additional information, such as antecedent moisture condition (AMC) and rainfall amount over any rainfall thresholds are used in computing the likelihood of observing these conditions given a flash flood has occurred. Finally, the posterior probability of flooding is computed using the prior probability and the likelihood. The variation of the computed posterior probability with rainfall amount and AMC presents the suitability of the approach in decision making in an uncertain environment. The methodology has been applied to the Posina basin in Italy. From the promising results obtained, we can conclude that the Bayesian approach in flash flood forecasting provides more realistic forecasting over the FFG.

Keywords: Flash flood, Bayesian, flash flood guidance, FFG, forecasting, Posina.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 672
2454 A Probabilistic Reinforcement-Based Approach to Conceptualization

Authors: Hadi Firouzi, Majid Nili Ahmadabadi, Babak N. Araabi

Abstract:

Conceptualization strengthens intelligent systems in generalization skill, effective knowledge representation, real-time inference, and managing uncertain and indefinite situations in addition to facilitating knowledge communication for learning agents situated in real world. Concept learning introduces a way of abstraction by which the continuous state is formed as entities called concepts which are connected to the action space and thus, they illustrate somehow the complex action space. Of computational concept learning approaches, action-based conceptualization is favored because of its simplicity and mirror neuron foundations in neuroscience. In this paper, a new biologically inspired concept learning approach based on the probabilistic framework is proposed. This approach exploits and extends the mirror neuron-s role in conceptualization for a reinforcement learning agent in nondeterministic environments. In the proposed method, instead of building a huge numerical knowledge, the concepts are learnt gradually from rewards through interaction with the environment. Moreover the probabilistic formation of the concepts is employed to deal with uncertain and dynamic nature of real problems in addition to the ability of generalization. These characteristics as a whole distinguish the proposed learning algorithm from both a pure classification algorithm and typical reinforcement learning. Simulation results show advantages of the proposed framework in terms of convergence speed as well as generalization and asymptotic behavior because of utilizing both success and failures attempts through received rewards. Experimental results, on the other hand, show the applicability and effectiveness of the proposed method in continuous and noisy environments for a real robotic task such as maze as well as the benefits of implementing an incremental learning scenario in artificial agents.

Keywords: Concept learning, probabilistic decision making, reinforcement learning.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1475
2453 A Direct Probabilistic Optimization Method for Constrained Optimal Control Problem

Authors: Akbar Banitalebi, Mohd Ismail Abd Aziz, Rohanin Ahmad

Abstract:

A new stochastic algorithm called Probabilistic Global Search Johor (PGSJ) has recently been established for global optimization of nonconvex real valued problems on finite dimensional Euclidean space. In this paper we present convergence guarantee for this algorithm in probabilistic sense without imposing any more condition. Then, we jointly utilize this algorithm along with control parameterization technique for the solution of constrained optimal control problem. The numerical simulations are also included to illustrate the efficiency and effectiveness of the PGSJ algorithm in the solution of control problems.

Keywords: Optimal Control Problem, Constraints, Direct Methods, Stochastic Algorithm

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1645
2452 Infrastructure Change Monitoring Using Multitemporal Multispectral Satellite Images

Authors: U. Datta

Abstract:

The main objective of this study is to find a suitable approach to monitor the land infrastructure growth over a period of time using multispectral satellite images. Bi-temporal change detection method is unable to indicate the continuous change occurring over a long period of time. To achieve this objective, the approach used here estimates a statistical model from series of multispectral image data over a long period of time, assuming there is no considerable change during that time period and then compare it with the multispectral image data obtained at a later time. The change is estimated pixel-wise. Statistical composite hypothesis technique is used for estimating pixel based change detection in a defined region. The generalized likelihood ratio test (GLRT) is used to detect the changed pixel from probabilistic estimated model of the corresponding pixel. The changed pixel is detected assuming that the images have been co-registered prior to estimation. To minimize error due to co-registration, 8-neighborhood pixels around the pixel under test are also considered. The multispectral images from Sentinel-2 and Landsat-8 from 2015 to 2018 are used for this purpose. There are different challenges in this method. First and foremost challenge is to get quite a large number of datasets for multivariate distribution modelling. A large number of images are always discarded due to cloud coverage. Due to imperfect modelling there will be high probability of false alarm. Overall conclusion that can be drawn from this work is that the probabilistic method described in this paper has given some promising results, which need to be pursued further.

Keywords: Co-registration, GLRT, infrastructure growth, multispectral, multitemporal, pixel-based change detection.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 631
2451 Evaluation of Horizontal Seismic Hazard of Naghan, Iran

Authors: S. A. Razavian Amrei, G.Ghodrati Amiri, D. Rezaei

Abstract:

This paper presents probabilistic horizontal seismic hazard assessment of Naghan, Iran. It displays the probabilistic estimate of Peak Ground Horizontal Acceleration (PGHA) for the return period of 475, 950 and 2475 years. The output of the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis is based on peak ground acceleration (PGA), which is the most common criterion in designing of buildings. A catalogue of seismic events that includes both historical and instrumental events was developed and covers the period from 840 to 2009. The seismic sources that affect the hazard in Naghan were identified within the radius of 200 km and the recurrence relationships of these sources were generated by Kijko and Sellevoll. Finally Peak Ground Horizontal Acceleration (PGHA) has been prepared to indicate the earthquake hazard of Naghan for different hazard levels by using SEISRISK III software.

Keywords: Seismic Hazard Assessment, Seismicity Parameters, PGA, Naghan, Iran

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1641
2450 Comparison of Different Neural Network Approaches for the Prediction of Kidney Dysfunction

Authors: Ali Hussian Ali AlTimemy, Fawzi M. Al Naima

Abstract:

This paper presents the prediction of kidney dysfunction using different neural network (NN) approaches. Self organization Maps (SOM), Probabilistic Neural Network (PNN) and Multi Layer Perceptron Neural Network (MLPNN) trained with Back Propagation Algorithm (BPA) are used in this study. Six hundred and sixty three sets of analytical laboratory tests have been collected from one of the private clinical laboratories in Baghdad. For each subject, Serum urea and Serum creatinin levels have been analyzed and tested by using clinical laboratory measurements. The collected urea and cretinine levels are then used as inputs to the three NN models in which the training process is done by different neural approaches. SOM which is a class of unsupervised network whereas PNN and BPNN are considered as class of supervised networks. These networks are used as a classifier to predict whether kidney is normal or it will have a dysfunction. The accuracy of prediction, sensitivity and specificity were found for each type of the proposed networks .We conclude that PNN gives faster and more accurate prediction of kidney dysfunction and it works as promising tool for predicting of routine kidney dysfunction from the clinical laboratory data.

Keywords: Kidney Dysfunction, Prediction, SOM, PNN, BPNN, Urea and Creatinine levels.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1880
2449 Probabilistic Graphical Model for the Web

Authors: M. Nekri, A. Khelladi

Abstract:

The world wide web network is a network with a complex topology, the main properties of which are the distribution of degrees in power law, A low clustering coefficient and a weak average distance. Modeling the web as a graph allows locating the information in little time and consequently offering a help in the construction of the research engine. Here, we present a model based on the already existing probabilistic graphs with all the aforesaid characteristics. This work will consist in studying the web in order to know its structuring thus it will enable us to modelize it more easily and propose a possible algorithm for its exploration.

Keywords: Clustering coefficient, preferential attachment, small world, Web community.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1556
2448 FIR Filter Design via Linear Complementarity Problem, Messy Genetic Algorithm, and Ising Messy Genetic Algorithm

Authors: A.M. Al-Fahed Nuseirat, R. Abu-Zitar

Abstract:

In this paper the design of maximally flat linear phase finite impulse response (FIR) filters is considered. The problem is handled with totally two different approaches. The first one is completely deterministic numerical approach where the problem is formulated as a Linear Complementarity Problem (LCP). The other one is based on a combination of Markov Random Fields (MRF's) approach with messy genetic algorithm (MGA). Markov Random Fields (MRFs) are a class of probabilistic models that have been applied for many years to the analysis of visual patterns or textures. Our objective is to establish MRFs as an interesting approach to modeling messy genetic algorithms. We establish a theoretical result that every genetic algorithm problem can be characterized in terms of a MRF model. This allows us to construct an explicit probabilistic model of the MGA fitness function and introduce the Ising MGA. Experimentations done with Ising MGA are less costly than those done with standard MGA since much less computations are involved. The least computations of all is for the LCP. Results of the LCP, random search, random seeded search, MGA, and Ising MGA are discussed.

Keywords: Filter design, FIR digital filters, LCP, Ising model, MGA, Ising MGA.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1977
2447 Hybrid Neural Network Methods for Lithology Identification in the Algerian Sahara

Authors: S. Chikhi, M. Batouche, H. Shout

Abstract:

In this paper, we combine a probabilistic neural method with radial-bias functions in order to construct the lithofacies of the wells DF01, DF02 and DF03 situated in the Triassic province of Algeria (Sahara). Lithofacies is a crucial problem in reservoir characterization. Our objective is to facilitate the experts' work in geological domain and to allow them to obtain quickly the structure and the nature of lands around the drilling. This study intends to design a tool that helps automatic deduction from numerical data. We used a probabilistic formalism to enhance the classification process initiated by a Self-Organized Map procedure. Our system gives lithofacies, from well-log data, of the concerned reservoir wells in an aspect easy to read by a geology expert who identifies the potential for oil production at a given source and so forms the basis for estimating the financial returns and economic benefits.

Keywords: Classification, Lithofacies, Probabilistic formalism, Reservoir characterization, Well-log data.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1822
2446 New Multisensor Data Fusion Method Based on Probabilistic Grids Representation

Authors: Zhichao Zhao, Yi Liu, Shunping Xiao

Abstract:

A new data fusion method called joint probability density matrix (JPDM) is proposed, which can associate and fuse measurements from spatially distributed heterogeneous sensors to identify the real target in a surveillance region. Using the probabilistic grids representation, we numerically combine the uncertainty regions of all the measurements in a general framework. The NP-hard multisensor data fusion problem has been converted to a peak picking problem in the grids map. Unlike most of the existing data fusion method, the JPDM method dose not need association processing, and will not lead to combinatorial explosion. Its convergence to the CRLB with a diminishing grid size has been proved. Simulation results are presented to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed technique.

Keywords: Cramer-Rao lower bound (CRLB), data fusion, probabilistic grids, joint probability density matrix, localization, sensor network.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1732
2445 A Comparative Analysis of Fuzzy, Neuro-Fuzzy and Fuzzy-GA Based Approaches for Software Reusability Evaluation

Authors: Parvinder Singh Sandhu, Dalwinder Singh Salaria, Hardeep Singh

Abstract:

Software Reusability is primary attribute of software quality. There are metrics for identifying the quality of reusable components but the function that makes use of these metrics to find reusability of software components is still not clear. These metrics if identified in the design phase or even in the coding phase can help us to reduce the rework by improving quality of reuse of the component and hence improve the productivity due to probabilistic increase in the reuse level. In this paper, we have devised the framework of metrics that uses McCabe-s Cyclometric Complexity Measure for Complexity measurement, Regularity Metric, Halstead Software Science Indicator for Volume indication, Reuse Frequency metric and Coupling Metric values of the software component as input attributes and calculated reusability of the software component. Here, comparative analysis of the fuzzy, Neuro-fuzzy and Fuzzy-GA approaches is performed to evaluate the reusability of software components and Fuzzy-GA results outperform the other used approaches. The developed reusability model has produced high precision results as expected by the human experts.

Keywords: Software Reusability, Software Metrics, Neural Networks, Genetic Algorithm, Fuzzy Logic.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1764
2444 Second Order Statistics of Dynamic Response of Structures Using Gamma Distributed Damping Parameters

Authors: B. Chemali, B. Tiliouine

Abstract:

This article presents the main results of a numerical investigation on the uncertainty of dynamic response of structures with statistically correlated random damping Gamma distributed. A computational method based on a Linear Statistical Model (LSM) is implemented to predict second order statistics for the response of a typical industrial building structure. The significance of random damping with correlated parameters and its implications on the sensitivity of structural peak response in the neighborhood of a resonant frequency are discussed in light of considerable ranges of damping uncertainties and correlation coefficients. The results are compared to those generated using Monte Carlo simulation techniques. The numerical results obtained show the importance of damping uncertainty and statistical correlation of damping coefficients when obtaining accurate probabilistic estimates of dynamic response of structures. Furthermore, the effectiveness of the LSM model to efficiently predict uncertainty propagation for structural dynamic problems with correlated damping parameters is demonstrated.

Keywords: Correlated random damping, linear statistical model, Monte Carlo simulation, uncertainty of dynamic response.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1773
2443 A Neural Computing-Based Approach for the Early Detection of Hepatocellular Carcinoma

Authors: Marina Gorunescu, Florin Gorunescu, Kenneth Revett

Abstract:

Hepatocellular carcinoma, also called hepatoma, most commonly appears in a patient with chronic viral hepatitis. In patients with a higher suspicion of HCC, such as small or subtle rising of serum enzymes levels, the best method of diagnosis involves a CT scan of the abdomen, but only at high cost. The aim of this study was to increase the ability of the physician to early detect HCC, using a probabilistic neural network-based approach, in order to save time and hospital resources.

Keywords: Early HCC diagnosis, probabilistic neural network.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1207
2442 An Evolutionary Statistical Learning Theory

Authors: Sung-Hae Jun, Kyung-Whan Oh

Abstract:

Statistical learning theory was developed by Vapnik. It is a learning theory based on Vapnik-Chervonenkis dimension. It also has been used in learning models as good analytical tools. In general, a learning theory has had several problems. Some of them are local optima and over-fitting problems. As well, statistical learning theory has same problems because the kernel type, kernel parameters, and regularization constant C are determined subjectively by the art of researchers. So, we propose an evolutionary statistical learning theory to settle the problems of original statistical learning theory. Combining evolutionary computing into statistical learning theory, our theory is constructed. We verify improved performances of an evolutionary statistical learning theory using data sets from KDD cup.

Keywords: Evolutionary computing, Local optima, Over-fitting, Statistical learning theory

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1706
2441 Probabilistic Model Development for Project Performance Forecasting

Authors: Milad Eghtedari Naeini, Gholamreza Heravi

Abstract:

In this paper, based on the past project cost and time performance, a model for forecasting project cost performance is developed. This study presents a probabilistic project control concept to assure an acceptable forecast of project cost performance. In this concept project activities are classified into sub-groups entitled control accounts. Then obtain the Stochastic S-Curve (SS-Curve), for each sub-group and the project SS-Curve is obtained by summing sub-groups- SS-Curves. In this model, project cost uncertainties are considered through Beta distribution functions of the project activities costs required to complete the project at every selected time sections through project accomplishment, which are extracted from a variety of sources. Based on this model, after a percentage of the project progress, the project performance is measured via Earned Value Management to adjust the primary cost probability distribution functions. Then, accordingly the future project cost performance is predicted by using the Monte-Carlo simulation method.

Keywords: Monte Carlo method, Probabilistic model, Project forecasting, Stochastic S-curve

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2644
2440 Probabilistic Wavelet Neural Network Based Vibration Analysis of Induction Motor Drive

Authors: K. Jayakumar, S. Thangavel

Abstract:

In this paper proposed the effective fault detection of industrial drives by using Biorthogonal Posterior Vibration Signal-Data Probabilistic Wavelet Neural Network (BPPVS-WNN) system. This system was focused to reducing the current flow and to identify faults with lesser execution time with harmonic values obtained through fifth derivative. Initially, the construction of Biorthogonal vibration signal-data based wavelet transform in BPPVS-WNN system localizes the time and frequency domain. The Biorthogonal wavelet approximates the broken bearing using double scaling and factor, identifies the transient disturbance due to fault on induction motor through approximate coefficients and detailed coefficient. Posterior Probabilistic Neural Network detects the final level of faults using the detailed coefficient till fifth derivative and the results obtained through it at a faster rate at constant frequency signal on the industrial drive. Experiment through the Simulink tool detects the healthy and unhealthy motor on measuring parametric factors such as fault detection rate based on time, current flow rate, and execution time.

Keywords: Biorthogonal Wavelet Transform, Posterior Probabilistic Neural Network, Induction Motor.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 973
2439 An Optimal Unsupervised Satellite image Segmentation Approach Based on Pearson System and k-Means Clustering Algorithm Initialization

Authors: Ahmed Rekik, Mourad Zribi, Ahmed Ben Hamida, Mohamed Benjelloun

Abstract:

This paper presents an optimal and unsupervised satellite image segmentation approach based on Pearson system and k-Means Clustering Algorithm Initialization. Such method could be considered as original by the fact that it utilised K-Means clustering algorithm for an optimal initialisation of image class number on one hand and it exploited Pearson system for an optimal statistical distributions- affectation of each considered class on the other hand. Satellite image exploitation requires the use of different approaches, especially those founded on the unsupervised statistical segmentation principle. Such approaches necessitate definition of several parameters like image class number, class variables- estimation and generalised mixture distributions. Use of statistical images- attributes assured convincing and promoting results under the condition of having an optimal initialisation step with appropriated statistical distributions- affectation. Pearson system associated with a k-means clustering algorithm and Stochastic Expectation-Maximization 'SEM' algorithm could be adapted to such problem. For each image-s class, Pearson system attributes one distribution type according to different parameters and especially the Skewness 'β1' and the kurtosis 'β2'. The different adapted algorithms, K-Means clustering algorithm, SEM algorithm and Pearson system algorithm, are then applied to satellite image segmentation problem. Efficiency of those combined algorithms was firstly validated with the Mean Quadratic Error 'MQE' evaluation, and secondly with visual inspection along several comparisons of these unsupervised images- segmentation.

Keywords: Unsupervised classification, Pearson system, Satellite image, Segmentation.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1974
2438 Estimation of Missing or Incomplete Data in Road Performance Measurement Systems

Authors: Kristjan Kuhi, Kati K. Kaare, Ott Koppel

Abstract:

Modern management in most fields is performance based; both planning and implementation of maintenance and operational activities are driven by appropriately defined performance indicators. Continuous real-time data collection for management is becoming feasible due to technological advancements. Outdated and insufficient input data may result in incorrect decisions. When using deterministic models the uncertainty of the object state is not visible thus applying the deterministic models are more likely to give false diagnosis. Constructing structured probabilistic models of the performance indicators taking into consideration the surrounding indicator environment enables to estimate the trustworthiness of the indicator values. It also assists to fill gaps in data to improve the quality of the performance analysis and management decisions. In this paper authors discuss the application of probabilistic graphical models in the road performance measurement and propose a high-level conceptual model that enables analyzing and predicting more precisely future pavement deterioration based on road utilization.

Keywords: Probabilistic graphical models, performance indicators, road performance management, data collection

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1769
2437 A Combined Neural Network Approach to Soccer Player Prediction

Authors: Wenbin Zhang, Hantian Wu, Jian Tang

Abstract:

An artificial neural network is a mathematical model inspired by biological neural networks. There are several kinds of neural networks and they are widely used in many areas, such as: prediction, detection, and classification. Meanwhile, in day to day life, people always have to make many difficult decisions. For example, the coach of a soccer club has to decide which offensive player to be selected to play in a certain game. This work describes a novel Neural Network using a combination of the General Regression Neural Network and the Probabilistic Neural Networks to help a soccer coach make an informed decision.

Keywords: General Regression Neural Network, Probabilistic Neural Networks, Neural function.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 3702
2436 Reliability Levels of Reinforced Concrete Bridges Obtained by Mixing Approaches

Authors: Adrián D. García-Soto, Alejandro Hernández-Martínez, Jesús G. Valdés-Vázquez, Reyna A. Vizguerra-Alvarez

Abstract:

Reinforced concrete bridges designed by code are intended to achieve target reliability levels adequate for the geographical environment where the code is applicable. Several methods can be used to estimate such reliability levels. Many of them require the establishment of an explicit limit state function (LSF). When such LSF is not available as a close-form expression, the simulation techniques are often employed. The simulation methods are computing intensive and time consuming. Note that if the reliability of real bridges designed by code is of interest, numerical schemes, the finite element method (FEM) or computational mechanics could be required. In these cases, it can be quite difficult (or impossible) to establish a close-form of the LSF, and the simulation techniques may be necessary to compute reliability levels. To overcome the need for a large number of simulations when no explicit LSF is available, the point estimate method (PEM) could be considered as an alternative. It has the advantage that only the probabilistic moments of the random variables are required. However, in the PEM, fitting of the resulting moments of the LSF to a probability density function (PDF) is needed. In the present study, a very simple alternative which allows the assessment of the reliability levels when no explicit LSF is available and without the need of extensive simulations is employed. The alternative includes the use of the PEM, and its applicability is shown by assessing reliability levels of reinforced concrete bridges in Mexico when a numerical scheme is required. Comparisons with results by using the Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) technique are included. To overcome the problem of approximating the probabilistic moments from the PEM to a PDF, a well-known distribution is employed. The approach mixes the PEM and other classic reliability method (first order reliability method, FORM). The results in the present study are in good agreement whit those computed with the MCS. Therefore, the alternative of mixing the reliability methods is a very valuable option to determine reliability levels when no close form of the LSF is available, or if numerical schemes, the FEM or computational mechanics are employed.

Keywords: Structural reliability, reinforced concrete bridges, mixing approaches, point estimate method, Monte Carlo simulation.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1343
2435 Pakistan Sign Language Recognition Using Statistical Template Matching

Authors: Aleem Khalid Alvi, M. Yousuf Bin Azhar, Mehmood Usman, Suleman Mumtaz, Sameer Rafiq, RaziUr Rehman, Israr Ahmed

Abstract:

Sign language recognition has been a topic of research since the first data glove was developed. Many researchers have attempted to recognize sign language through various techniques. However none of them have ventured into the area of Pakistan Sign Language (PSL). The Boltay Haath project aims at recognizing PSL gestures using Statistical Template Matching. The primary input device is the DataGlove5 developed by 5DT. Alternative approaches use camera-based recognition which, being sensitive to environmental changes are not always a good choice.This paper explains the use of Statistical Template Matching for gesture recognition in Boltay Haath. The system recognizes one handed alphabet signs from PSL.

Keywords: Gesture Recognition, Pakistan Sign Language, DataGlove, Human Computer Interaction, Template Matching, BoltayHaath

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2948
2434 Robust Probabilistic Online Change Detection Algorithm Based On the Continuous Wavelet Transform

Authors: Sergei Yendiyarov, Sergei Petrushenko

Abstract:

In this article we present a change point detection algorithm based on the continuous wavelet transform. At the beginning of the article we describe a necessary transformation of a signal which has to be made for the purpose of change detection. Then case study related to iron ore sinter production which can be solved using our proposed technique is discussed. After that we describe a probabilistic algorithm which can be used to find changes using our transformed signal. It is shown that our algorithm works well with the presence of some noise and abnormal random bursts.

Keywords: Change detection, sinter production, wavelet transform.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1411
2433 Detecting Circles in Image Using Statistical Image Analysis

Authors: Fathi M. O. Hamed, Salma F. Elkofhaifee

Abstract:

The aim of this work is to detect geometrical shape objects in an image. In this paper, the object is considered to be as a circle shape. The identification requires find three characteristics, which are number, size, and location of the object. To achieve the goal of this work, this paper presents an algorithm that combines from some of statistical approaches and image analysis techniques. This algorithm has been implemented to arrive at the major objectives in this paper. The algorithm has been evaluated by using simulated data, and yields good results, and then it has been applied to real data.

Keywords: Image processing, median filter, projection, scalespace, segmentation, threshold.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1767
2432 Probabilities and the Persistence of Memory in a Bingo-like Carnival Game

Authors: M. Glomski, M. Lopes

Abstract:

Seemingly simple probabilities in the m-player game bingo have never been calculated. These probabilities include expected game length and the expected number of winners on a given turn. The difficulty in probabilistic analysis lies in the subtle interdependence among the m-many bingo game cards in play. In this paper, the game i got it!, a bingo variant, is considered. This variation provides enough weakening of the inter-player dependence to allow probabilistic analysis not possible for traditional bingo. The probability of winning in exactly k turns is calculated for a one-player game. Given a game of m-many players, the expected game length and tie probability are calculated. With these calculations, the game-s interesting payout scheme is considered.

Keywords: Conditional probability, games of chance, npersongames, probability theory.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1475
2431 Probabilistic Robustness Assessment of Structures under Sudden Column-Loss Scenario

Authors: Ali Y Al-Attraqchi, P. Rajeev, M. Javad Hashemi, Riadh Al-Mahaidi

Abstract:

This paper presents a probabilistic incremental dynamic analysis (IDA) of a full reinforced concrete building subjected to column loss scenario for the assessment of progressive collapse. The IDA is chosen to explicitly account for uncertainties in loads and system capacity. Fragility curves are developed to predict the probability of progressive collapse given the loss of one or more columns. At a broader scale, it will also provide critical information needed to support the development of a new generation of design codes that attempt to explicitly quantify structural robustness.

Keywords: Incremental dynamic analysis, progressive collapse, structural engineering, pushdown analysis.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 985
2430 Effective Sonar Target Classification via Parallel Structure of Minimal Resource Allocation Network

Authors: W.S. Lim, M.V.C. Rao

Abstract:

In this paper, the processing of sonar signals has been carried out using Minimal Resource Allocation Network (MRAN) and a Probabilistic Neural Network (PNN) in differentiation of commonly encountered features in indoor environments. The stability-plasticity behaviors of both networks have been investigated. The experimental result shows that MRAN possesses lower network complexity but experiences higher plasticity than PNN. An enhanced version called parallel MRAN (pMRAN) is proposed to solve this problem and is proven to be stable in prediction and also outperformed the original MRAN.

Keywords: Ultrasonic sensing, target classification, minimalresource allocation network (MRAN), probabilistic neural network(PNN), stability-plasticity dilemma.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1545