Search results for: Short Term Load Forecasting (STLF)
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 3067

Search results for: Short Term Load Forecasting (STLF)

2827 Anti-Counterfeiting Solution Employing Mobile RFID Environment

Authors: Juhan Kim, Howon Kim

Abstract:

EPC Class-1 Generation-2 UHF tags, one of Radio frequency identification or RFID tag types, is expected that most companies are planning to use it in the supply chain in the short term and in consumer packaging in the long term due to its inexpensive cost. Because of the very cost, however, its resources are extremely scarce and it is hard to have any valuable security algorithms in it. It causes security vulnerabilities, in particular cloning the tags for counterfeits. In this paper, we propose a product authentication solution for anti-counterfeiting at application level in the supply chain and mobile RFID environment. It aims to become aware of distribution of spurious products with fake RFID tags and to provide a product authentication service to general consumers with mobile RFID devices like mobile phone or PDA which has a mobile RFID reader. We will discuss anti-counterfeiting mechanisms which are required to our proposed solution and address requirements that the mechanisms should have.

Keywords: EPC, RFID, Anti-Counterfeiting, Mobile RFIDenvironment.

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2826 Investigation of Short Time Scale Variation of Solar Radiation Spectrum in UV, PAR, and NIR Bands due to Atmospheric Aerosol and Water Vapor

Authors: Jackson H. W. Chang, Jedol Dayou, Justin Sentian

Abstract:

Long terms variation of solar insolation had been widely studied. However, its parallel observations in short time scale is rather lacking. This paper aims to investigate the short time scale evolution of solar radiation spectrum (UV, PAR, and NIR bands) due to atmospheric aerosols and water vapors. A total of 25 days of global and diffused solar spectrum ranges from air mass 2 to 6 were collected using ground-based spectrometer with shadowband technique. The result shows that variation of solar radiation is the least in UV fraction, followed by PAR and the most in NIR. Broader variations in PAR and NIR are associated with the short time scale fluctuations of aerosol and water vapors. The corresponding daily evolution of UV, PAR, and NIR fractions implies that aerosol and water vapors variation could also be responsible for the deviation pattern in the Langley-plot analysis.

Keywords: Aerosol, short time scale variation, solar radiation, water vapor.

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2825 The Dynamics of Algeria’s Natural Gas Exports to Europe: Evidence from ARDL Bounds Testing Approach with Breakpoints

Authors: Hicham Benamirouche, Oum Elkheir Moussi

Abstract:

The purpose of the study is to examine the dynamics of Algeria’s natural gas exports through the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach with break points. The analysis was carried out for the period from 1967 to 2015. Based on imperfect substitution specification, the ARDL approach reveals a long-run equilibrium relationship between Algeria’s Natural gas exports and their determinant factors (Algeria’s gas reserves, Domestic gas consumption, Europe’s GDP per capita, relative prices, the European gas production and the market share of competitors). All the long-run elasticities estimated are statistically significant with a large impact of domestic factors, which constitute the supply constraints. In short term, the elasticities are statistically significant, and almost comparable to those of the long term. Furthermore, the speed of adjustment towards long-run equilibrium is less than one year because of the little flexibility of the long term export contracts. Two break points have been estimated when we employ the domestic gas consumption as a break variable; 1984 and 2010, which reflect the arbitration policy between the domestic gas market and gas exports.

Keywords: Natural gas exports, elasticity, ARDL bounds testing, break points, Algeria.

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2824 An Experimental Investigation of Thermoelectric Air-Cooling Module

Authors: Yu-Wei Chang, Chiao-Hung Cheng, Wen-Fang Wu, Sih-Li Chen

Abstract:

This article experimentally investigates the thermal performance of thermoelectric air-cooling module which comprises a thermoelectric cooler (TEC) and an air-cooling heat sink. The influences of input current and heat load are determined. And performances under each situation are quantified by thermal resistance analysis. Since TEC generates Joule heat, this nature makes construction of thermal resistance network difficult. To simplify the analysis, this article emphasizes on the resistance heat load might meet when passing through the device. Therefore, the thermal resistances in this paper are to divide temperature differences by heat load. According to the result, there exists an optimum input current under every heating power. In this case, the optimum input current is around 6A or 7A. The performance of the heat sink would be improved with TEC under certain heating power and input current, especially at a low heat load. According to the result, the device can even make the heat source cooler than the ambient. However, TEC is not always effective at every heat load and input current. In some situation, the device works worse than the heat sink without TEC. To determine the availability of TEC, this study figures out the effective operating region in which the TEC air-cooling module works better than the heat sink without TEC. The result shows that TEC is more effective at a lower heat load. If heat load is too high, heat sink with TEC will perform worse than without TEC. The limit of this device is 57W. Besides, TEC is not helpful if input current is too high or too low. There is an effective range of input current, and the range becomes narrower when the heat load grows.

Keywords: Thermoelectric cooler, TEC, electronic cooling, heat sink.

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2823 The Load Balancing Algorithm for the Star Interconnection Network

Authors: Ahmad M. Awwad, Jehad Al-Sadi

Abstract:

The star network is one of the promising interconnection networks for future high speed parallel computers, it is expected to be one of the future-generation networks. The star network is both edge and vertex symmetry, it was shown to have many gorgeous topological proprieties also it is owns hierarchical structure framework. Although much of the research work has been done on this promising network in literature, it still suffers from having enough algorithms for load balancing problem. In this paper we try to work on this issue by investigating and proposing an efficient algorithm for load balancing problem for the star network. The proposed algorithm is called Star Clustered Dimension Exchange Method SCDEM to be implemented on the star network. The proposed algorithm is based on the Clustered Dimension Exchange Method (CDEM). The SCDEM algorithm is shown to be efficient in redistributing the load balancing as evenly as possible among all nodes of different factor networks.

Keywords: Interconnection networks, Load balancing, Star network.

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2822 On the Analysis of IP Traffic Distribution in the Network of Suranaree University of Technology

Authors: Paramet Nualmuenwai, Chutima Prommak

Abstract:

This paper presents the IP traffic analysis. The traffic was collected from the network of Suranaree University of Technology using the software based on the Simple Network Management Protocol (SNMP). In particular, we analyze the distribution of the aggregated traffic during the hours of peak load and light load. The traffic profiles including the parameters described the traffic distributions were derived. From the statistical analysis applying three different methods, including the Kolmogorov Smirnov test, Anderson Darling test, and Chi-Squared test, we found that the IP traffic distribution is a non-normal distribution and the distributions during the peak load and the light load are different. The experimental study and analysis show high uncertainty of the IP traffic.

Keywords: IP traffic analysis, IP traffic distribution, Traffic uncertainty

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2821 Impact of Altered Behavioral Condition on Markers of Oxidative Stress and Different Biochemical Parameters

Authors: D. S. Mohale, A. V. Chandewar

Abstract:

Aim- Study was undertaken to investigate the effect of altered behavioral condition like depression on various oxidative stress markers and biochemical parameters in rats. Methods- Rats were subjected for short (21 days) and long term (84 days) social isolation; the rats displayed an increase in depression on force swim test relative to control. Various markers of oxidative stress like lipid per oxidation (LPO), reduced glutathione (GSH), Supers oxide dismutase (SOD), catalase (CAT) and biochemical parameters like SGOT, SGPT, and blood glucose were determined. Results- There was significant increase in the level of LPO and decrease in the levels of GSH, SOD and CAT after long term isolation. Biochemical parameters were significantly altered after social isolation. Conclusion- Increased oxidative stress in depression which may leads to alteration of biochemical parameters.

Keywords: Depression, Glucose, LPO, Oxidative stress.

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2820 The Analysis of Defects Prediction in Injection Molding

Authors: Mehdi Moayyedian, Kazem Abhary, Romeo Marian

Abstract:

This paper presents an evaluation of a plastic defect in injection molding before it occurs in the process; it is known as the short shot defect. The evaluation of different parameters which affect the possibility of short shot defect is the aim of this paper. The analysis of short shot possibility is conducted via SolidWorks Plastics and Taguchi method to determine the most significant parameters. Finite Element Method (FEM) is employed to analyze two circular flat polypropylene plates of 1 mm thickness. Filling time, part cooling time, pressure holding time, melt temperature and gate type are chosen as process and geometric parameters, respectively. A methodology is presented herein to predict the possibility of the short-shot occurrence. The analysis determined melt temperature is the most influential parameter affecting the possibility of short shot defect with a contribution of 74.25%, and filling time with a contribution of 22%, followed by gate type with a contribution of 3.69%. It was also determined the optimum level of each parameter leading to a reduction in the possibility of short shot are gate type at level 1, filling time at level 3 and melt temperature at level 3. Finally, the most significant parameters affecting the possibility of short shot were determined to be melt temperature, filling time, and gate type.

Keywords: Injection molding, plastic defects, short shot, Taguchi method.

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2819 A Simplified Approach for Load Flow Analysis of Radial Distribution Network

Authors: K. Vinoth Kumar, M.P. Selvan

Abstract:

This paper presents a simple approach for load flow analysis of a radial distribution network. The proposed approach utilizes forward and backward sweep algorithm based on Kirchoff-s current law (KCL) and Kirchoff-s voltage law (KVL) for evaluating the node voltages iteratively. In this approach, computation of branch current depends only on the current injected at the neighbouring node and the current in the adjacent branch. This approach starts from the end nodes of sub lateral line, lateral line and main line and moves towards the root node during branch current computation. The node voltage evaluation begins from the root node and moves towards the nodes located at the far end of the main, lateral and sub lateral lines. The proposed approach has been tested using four radial distribution systems of different size and configuration and found to be computationally efficient.

Keywords: constant current load, constant impedance load, constant power load, forward–backward sweep, load flow analysis, radial distribution system.

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2818 Load Discontinuity in Shock Response and Its Remedies

Authors: Shuenn-Yih Chang, Chiu-Li Huang

Abstract:

It has been shown that a load discontinuity at the end of an impulse will result in an extra impulse and hence an extra amplitude distortion if a step-by-step integration method is employed to yield the shock response. In order to overcome this difficulty, three remedies are proposed to reduce the extra amplitude distortion. The first remedy is to solve the momentum equation of motion instead of the force equation of motion in the step-by-step solution of the shock response, where an external momentum is used in the solution of the momentum equation of motion. Since the external momentum is a resultant of the time integration of external force, the problem of load discontinuity will automatically disappear. The second remedy is to perform a single small time step immediately upon termination of the applied impulse while the other time steps can still be conducted by using the time step determined from general considerations. This is because that the extra impulse caused by a load discontinuity at the end of an impulse is almost linearly proportional to the step size. Finally, the third remedy is to use the average value of the two different values at the integration point of the load discontinuity to replace the use of one of them for loading input. The basic motivation of this remedy originates from the concept of no loading input error associated with the integration point of load discontinuity. The feasibility of the three remedies are analytically explained and numerically illustrated.

Keywords: Dynamic analysis, load discontinuity, shock response, step-by-step integration

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2817 Developing a Simple and an Accurate Formula for the Conduction Angle of a Single Phase Rectifier with RL Load

Authors: S. Ali Al-Mawsawi, Fadhel A. Albasri

Abstract:

The paper presents a simple and an accurate formula that has been developed for the conduction angle (δ) of a single phase half-wave or full-wave controlled rectifier with RL load. This formula can be also used for calculating the conduction angle (δ) in case of A.C. voltage regulator with inductive load under discontinuous current mode. The simulation results shows that the conduction angle calculated from the developed formula agree very well with that obtained from the exact solution arrived from the iterative method. Applying the developed formula can reduce the computational time and reduce the time for manual classroom calculation. In addition, the proposed formula is attractive for real time implementations.

Keywords: Conduction Angle, Firing Angle, Excitation Angle, Load Angle.

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2816 Multi-Context Recurrent Neural Network for Time Series Applications

Authors: B. Q. Huang, Tarik Rashid, M-T. Kechadi

Abstract:

this paper presents a multi-context recurrent network for time series analysis. While simple recurrent network (SRN) are very popular among recurrent neural networks, they still have some shortcomings in terms of learning speed and accuracy that need to be addressed. To solve these problems, we proposed a multi-context recurrent network (MCRN) with three different learning algorithms. The performance of this network is evaluated on some real-world application such as handwriting recognition and energy load forecasting. We study the performance of this network and we compared it to a very well established SRN. The experimental results showed that MCRN is very efficient and very well suited to time series analysis and its applications.

Keywords: Gradient descent method, recurrent neural network, learning algorithms, time series, BP

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2815 Copper Price Prediction Model for Various Economic Situations

Authors: Haidy S. Ghali, Engy Serag, A. Samer Ezeldin

Abstract:

Copper is an essential raw material used in the construction industry. During 2021 and the first half of 2022, the global market suffered from a significant fluctuation in copper raw material prices due to the aftermath of both the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war which exposed its consumers to an unexpected financial risk. Thereto, this paper aims to develop two hybrid price prediction models using artificial neural network and long short-term memory (ANN-LSTM), by Python, that can forecast the average monthly copper prices, traded in the London Metal Exchange; the first model is a multivariate model that forecasts the copper price of the next 1-month and the second is a univariate model that predicts the copper prices of the upcoming three months. Historical data of average monthly London Metal Exchange copper prices are collected from January 2009 till July 2022 and potential external factors are identified and employed in the multivariate model. These factors lie under three main categories: energy prices, and economic indicators of the three major exporting countries of copper depending on the data availability. Before developing the LSTM models, the collected external parameters are analyzed with respect to the copper prices using correlation, and multicollinearity tests in R software; then, the parameters are further screened to select the parameters that influence the copper prices. Then, the two LSTM models are developed, and the dataset is divided into training, validation, and testing sets. The results show that the performance of the 3-month prediction model is better than the 1-month prediction model; but still, both models can act as predicting tools for diverse economic situations.

Keywords: Copper prices, prediction model, neural network, time series forecasting.

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2814 High-Frequency Monitoring Results of a Piled Raft Foundation under Wind Loading

Authors: Laurent Pitteloud, Jörg Meier

Abstract:

Piled raft foundations represent an efficient and reliable technique for transferring high vertical and horizontal loads to the subsoil. Piled raft foundations were success­fully implemented for several high-rise buildings world­wide over the last decades. For the structural design of this foundation type the stiffnesses of both the piles and the raft have to be deter­mined for the static (e.g. dead load, live load) and the dynamic load cases (e.g. earthquake). In this context the question often arises, to which proportion wind loads are to be considered as dynamic loads. Usually a piled raft foundation has to be monitored in order to verify the design hypotheses. As an additional benefit, the analysis of this monitoring data may lead to a better under­standing of the behaviour of this foundation type for future projects in similar subsoil conditions. In case the measurement frequency is high enough, one may also draw conclusions on the effect of wind loading on the piled raft foundation. For a 41-storey office building in Basel, Switzerland, the preliminary design showed that a piled raft foundation was the best solution to satisfy both design requirements, as well as economic aspects. A high-frequency monitoring of the foundation including pile loads, vertical stresses under the raft, as well as pore water pressures was performed over 5 years. In windy situations the analysis of the measure­ments shows that the pile load increment due to wind consists of a static and a cyclic load term. As piles and raft react with different stiffnesses under static and dynamic loading, these measure­ments are useful for the correct definition of stiffnesses of future piled raft foundations. This paper outlines the design strategy and the numerical modelling of the aforementioned piled raft foundation. The measurement results are presented and analysed. Based on the findings, comments and conclusions on the definition of pile and raft stiffnesses for vertical and wind loading are proposed.

Keywords: Dynamic loading, high-frequency monitoring, piled raft foundations, wind loading.

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2813 Optimal Placement and Sizing of Distributed Generation in Microgrid for Power Loss Reduction and Voltage Profile Improvement

Authors: Ferinar Moaidi, Mahdi Moaidi

Abstract:

Environmental issues and the ever-increasing in demand of electrical energy make it necessary to have distributed generation (DG) resources in the power system. In this research, in order to realize the goals of reducing losses and improving the voltage profile in a microgrid, the allocation and sizing of DGs have been used. The proposed Genetic Algorithm (GA) is described from the array of artificial intelligence methods for solving the problem. The algorithm is implemented on the IEEE 33 buses network. This study is presented in two scenarios, primarily to illustrate the effect of location and determination of DGs has been done to reduce losses and improve the voltage profile. On the other hand, decisions made with the one-level assumptions of load are not universally accepted for all levels of load. Therefore, in this study, load modelling is performed and the results are presented for multi-levels load state.

Keywords: Distributed generation, genetic algorithm, microgrid, load modelling, loss reduction, voltage improvement.

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2812 A 3 Dimensional Simulation of the Repeated Load Triaxial Test

Authors: Bao Thach Nguyen, Abbas Mohajerani

Abstract:

A typical flexible pavement structure consists of the surface, base, sub-base and subgrade soil. The loading traffic is transferred from the top layer with higher stiffness to the layer below with less stiffness. Under normal traffic loading, the behaviour of flexible pavement is very complex and can be predicted by using the repeated load triaxial test equipment in the laboratory. However, the nature of the repeated load triaxial testing procedure is considered time-consuming, complicated and expensive, and it is a challenge to carry out as a routine test in the laboratory. Therefore, the current paper proposes a numerical approach to simulate the repeated load triaxial test by employing the discrete element method. A sample with particle size ranging from 2.36mm to 19.0mm was constructed. Material properties, which included normal stiffness, shear stiffness, coefficient of friction, maximum dry density and particle density, were used as the input for the simulation. The sample was then subjected to a combination of deviator and confining stress and it was found that the discrete element method is able to simulate the repeated load triaxial test in the laboratory.

Keywords: Discrete element method, repeated load triaxial, pavement materials.

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2811 Empirical Statistical Modeling of Rainfall Prediction over Myanmar

Authors: Wint Thida Zaw, Thinn Thu Naing

Abstract:

One of the essential sectors of Myanmar economy is agriculture which is sensitive to climate variation. The most important climatic element which impacts on agriculture sector is rainfall. Thus rainfall prediction becomes an important issue in agriculture country. Multi variables polynomial regression (MPR) provides an effective way to describe complex nonlinear input output relationships so that an outcome variable can be predicted from the other or others. In this paper, the modeling of monthly rainfall prediction over Myanmar is described in detail by applying the polynomial regression equation. The proposed model results are compared to the results produced by multiple linear regression model (MLR). Experiments indicate that the prediction model based on MPR has higher accuracy than using MLR.

Keywords: Polynomial Regression, Rainfall Forecasting, Statistical forecasting.

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2810 Sensitivity Parameter Analysis of Negative Moment Dynamic Load Allowance of Continuous T-Girder Bridge

Authors: Fan Yang, Ye-lu Wang, Yang Zhao

Abstract:

The dynamic load allowance, as an application result of the vehicle-bridge coupled vibration theory, is an important parameter for bridge design and evaluation. Based on the coupled vehicle-bridge vibration theory, the current work establishes a full girder model of a dynamic load allowance, selects a planar five-degree-of-freedom three-axis vehicle model, solves the coupled vehicle-bridge dynamic response using the APDL language in the spatial finite element program ANSYS, selects the pivot point 2 sections as the representative of the negative moment section, and analyzes the effects of parameters such as travel speed, unevenness, vehicle frequency, span diameter, span number and forced displacement of the support on the negative moment dynamic load allowance through orthogonal tests. The influence of parameters such as vehicle speed, unevenness, vehicle frequency, span diameter, span number, and forced displacement of the support on the negative moment dynamic load allowance is analyzed by orthogonal tests, and the influence law of each influencing parameter is summarized. It is found that the effects of vehicle frequency, unevenness, and speed on the negative moment dynamic load allowance are significant, among which vehicle frequency has the greatest effect on the negative moment dynamic load allowance; the effects of span number and span diameter on the negative moment dynamic load allowance are relatively small; the effects of forced displacement of the support on the negative moment dynamic load allowance are negligible.

Keywords: Continuous T-girder bridge, dynamic load allowance, sensitivity analysis, vehicle-bridge coupling.

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2809 Settlement Analysis of Axially Loaded Bored Piles: A Case History

Authors: M. Mert, M. T. Ozkan

Abstract:

Pile load tests should be applied to check the bearing capacity calculations and to determine the settlement of the pile corresponding to test load. Strain gauges can be installed into pile in order to determine the shaft resistance of the piles for every soil layer respectively. Detailed results can be obtained by means of strain gauges placed at certain levels into test piles. In the scope of this study, pile load test data obtained from two different projects are examined.  Instrumented static pile load tests were applied on totally 7 test bored piles of different diameters (80 cm, 150 cm, and 200 cm) and different lengths (between 30-76 m) in two different project site. Settlement analysis of test piles is done by using some of load transfer methods and finite element method. Plaxis 3D which is a three-dimensional finite element program is also used for settlement analysis of the test piles. In this study, firstly bearing capacity of test piles are determined and compared with strain gauge data which is required for settlement analysis. Then, settlement values of the test piles are estimated by using load transfer methods developed in recent years and finite element method. The aim of this study is to show similarities and differences between the results obtained from settlement analysis methods and instrumented pile load tests.

Keywords: Failure, finite element method, monitoring and instrumentation, pile, settlement.

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2808 Research on Load Balancing Technology for Web Service Mobile Host

Authors: Yao Lu, Xiuguo Zhang, Zhiying Cao

Abstract:

In this paper, Load Balancing idea is used in the Web service mobile host. The main idea of Load Balancing is to establish a one-to-many mapping mechanism: An entrance-mapping request to plurality of processing node in order to realize the dividing and assignment processing. Because the mobile host is a resource constrained environment, there are some Web services which cannot be completed on the mobile host. When the mobile host resource is not enough to complete the request, Load Balancing scheduler will divide the request into a plurality of sub-requests and transfer them to different auxiliary mobile hosts. Auxiliary mobile host executes sub-requests, and then, the results will be returned to the mobile host. Service request integrator receives results of sub-requests from the auxiliary mobile host, and integrates the sub-requests. In the end, the complete request is returned to the client. Experimental results show that this technology adopted in this paper can complete requests and have a higher efficiency.

Keywords: Dinic, load balancing, mobile host, web service.

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2807 An On-chip LDO Voltage Regulator with Improved Current Buffer Compensation

Authors: Lv Xiaopeng, Bian Qiang, Yue Suge

Abstract:

A fully on-chip low drop-out (LDO) voltage regulator with 100pF output load capacitor is presented. A novel frequency compensation scheme using current buffer is adopted to realize single dominant pole within the unit gain frequency of the regulation loop, the phase margin (PM) is at least 50 degree under the full range of the load current, and the power supply rejection (PSR) character is improved compared with conventional Miller compensation. Besides, the differentiator provides a high speed path during the load current transient. Implemented in 0.18μm CMOS technology, the LDO voltage regulator provides 100mA load current with a stable 1.8V output voltage consuming 80μA quiescent current.

Keywords: capacitor-less LDO, frequency compensation, transient response, power supply rejection

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2806 Long Term Follow-Up, Clinical Outcomes and Quality of Life after Total Arterial Revascularisation versus Conventional Coronary Surgery: A Retrospective Study

Authors: Jitendra Jain, Cassandra Hidajat, Hansraj Riteesh Bookun

Abstract:

Graft patency underpins long-term prognosis after coronary artery bypass grafting surgery (CABG). The benefits of the combined use of only the left internal mammary artery and radial artery, referred to as total arterial revascularisation (TAR), on long-term clinical outcomes and quality of life are relatively unknown. The aim of this study was to identify whether there were differences in long term clinical outcomes between recipients of TAR compared to a cohort of mostly arterial revascularization involving the left internal mammary, at least one radial artery and at least one saphenous vein graft. A retrospective analysis was performed on all patients who underwent TAR or were re-vascularized with supplementary saphenous vein graft from February 1996 to December 2004. Telephone surveys were conducted to obtain clinical outcome parameters including major adverse cardiac and cerebrovascular events (MACCE) and Short Form (SF-36v2) Health Survey responses. A total of 176 patients were successfully contacted to obtain postop follow up results. The mean follow-up length from time of surgery in our study was TAR 12.4±1.8 years and conventional 12.6±2.1. PCS score was TAR 45.9±8.8 vs LIMA/Rad/ SVG 44.9±9.2 (p=0.468) and MCS score was TAR 52.0±8.9 vs LIMA/Rad/SVG 52.5±9.3 (p=0.723). There were no significant differences between groups for NYHA class 3+ TAR 9.4% vs. LIMA/Rad/SVG 6.6%; or CCS 3+ TAR 2.35% vs. LIMA/Rad/SVG 0%.

Keywords: CABG, MACCEs, quality of life, total arterial revascularization.

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2805 Footbridge Response on Single Pedestrian Induced Vibration Analysis

Authors: J. Kala, V. Salajka, P. Hradil

Abstract:

Many footbridges have natural frequencies that coincide with the dominant frequencies of the pedestrian-induced load and therefore they have a potential to suffer excessive vibrations under dynamic loads induced by pedestrians. Some of the design standards introduce load models for pedestrian loads applicable for simple structures. Load modeling for more complex structures, on the other hand, is most often left to the designer. The main focus of this paper is on the human induced forces transmitted to a footbridge and on the ways these loads can be modeled to be used in the dynamic design of footbridges. Also design criteria and load models proposed by widely used standards were introduced and a comparison was made. The dynamic analysis of the suspension bridge in Kolin in the Czech Republic was performed on detailed FEM model using the ANSYS program system. An attempt to model the load imposed by a single person and a crowd of pedestrians resulted in displacements and accelerations that are compared with serviceability criteria.

Keywords: Footbridge, Serviceability, Pedestrian action, Numerical analysis.

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2804 Assessment of the Environmental Destructive Effects of Building Dams

Authors: Mohammad Reza Pirestani, Mehdi Shafaghati, Amir Ahmad Dehghani

Abstract:

From the beginning of creation, human being has ever fought against the ecosystem by changes has made in environment. The most environmental changes on the nature have been done after starting the concentrated life in the same region. Dams are one of the most important buildings in water resources and transferring. These buildings have been made from old times without access to hydrological, hydraulically, hydro mechanical information. Dams have positive and negative effects on environment. Constructing a dam relatively causes equal ecological consequences. According to different criteria, environmental effects of dams can lead short term and long term damages. These effects may influence on the situation and treatment of meteorology, biology, culture, ancient works, etc and severely causes to change and complicate it. So considering importance of positive effects of dam construction, it is necessary to minimize negative environmental effects of dams to achieve a stable development. In this article the considered effects and their solutions in influencing on assessment of destructive environmental effects of dams construction have been surveyed and presented.

Keywords: Dam, Environment, Water Resources, Assessment

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2803 A Practical Method for Load Balancing in the LV Distribution Networks Case Study: Tabriz Electrical Network

Authors: A. Raminfard, S. M. Shahrtash

Abstract:

In this paper, a new efficient method for load balancing in low voltage distribution systems is presented. The proposed method introduces an improved Leap-frog method for optimization. The proposed objective function includes the difference between three phase currents, as well as two other terms to provide the integer property of the variables; where the latter are the status of the connection of loads to different phases. Afterwards, a new algorithm is supplemented to undertake the integer values for the load connection status. Finally, the method is applied to different parts of Tabriz low voltage network, where the results have shown the good performance of the proposed method.

Keywords: Load balancing, improved leap-frog method, optimization algorithm, low voltage distribution systems.

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2802 Forecasting the Volatility of Geophysical Time Series with Stochastic Volatility Models

Authors: Maria C. Mariani, Md Al Masum Bhuiyan, Osei K. Tweneboah, Hector G. Huizar

Abstract:

This work is devoted to the study of modeling geophysical time series. A stochastic technique with time-varying parameters is used to forecast the volatility of data arising in geophysics. In this study, the volatility is defined as a logarithmic first-order autoregressive process. We observe that the inclusion of log-volatility into the time-varying parameter estimation significantly improves forecasting which is facilitated via maximum likelihood estimation. This allows us to conclude that the estimation algorithm for the corresponding one-step-ahead suggested volatility (with ±2 standard prediction errors) is very feasible since it possesses good convergence properties.

Keywords: Augmented Dickey Fuller Test, geophysical time series, maximum likelihood estimation, stochastic volatility model.

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2801 Performance Enhancement of Analog Voltage Inverter with Adaptive Gain Control for Capacitive Load

Authors: Sun-Ki Hong, Yong-Ho Cho, Ki-Seok Kim, Tae-Sam Kang

Abstract:

Piezoelectric actuator is treated as RC load when it is modeled electrically. For some piezoelectric actuator applications, arbitrary voltage is required to actuate. Especially for unidirectional arbitrary voltage driving like as sine wave, some special inverter with circuit that can charge and discharge the capacitive energy can be used. In this case, the difference between power supply level and the object voltage level for RC load is varied. Because the control gain is constant, the controlled output is not uniform according to the voltage difference. In this paper, for charge and discharge circuit for unidirectional arbitrary voltage driving for piezoelectric actuator, the controller gain is controlled according to the voltage difference. With the proposed simple idea, the load voltage can have controlled smoothly although the voltage difference is varied. The appropriateness is proved from the simulation of the proposed circuit.

Keywords: Analog voltage inverter, Capacitive load, Gain control, DC-DC converter, Piezoelectric, Voltage waveform.

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2800 A Hybrid Machine Learning System for Stock Market Forecasting

Authors: Rohit Choudhry, Kumkum Garg

Abstract:

In this paper, we propose a hybrid machine learning system based on Genetic Algorithm (GA) and Support Vector Machines (SVM) for stock market prediction. A variety of indicators from the technical analysis field of study are used as input features. We also make use of the correlation between stock prices of different companies to forecast the price of a stock, making use of technical indicators of highly correlated stocks, not only the stock to be predicted. The genetic algorithm is used to select the set of most informative input features from among all the technical indicators. The results show that the hybrid GA-SVM system outperforms the stand alone SVM system.

Keywords: Genetic Algorithms, Support Vector Machines, Stock Market Forecasting.

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2799 Efficient Tools for Managing Uncertainties in Design and Operation of Engineering Structures

Authors: J. Menčík

Abstract:

Actual load, material characteristics and other quantities often differ from the design values. This can cause worse function, shorter life or failure of a civil engineering structure, a machine, vehicle or another appliance. The paper shows main causes of the uncertainties and deviations and presents a systematic approach and efficient tools for their elimination or mitigation of consequences. Emphasis is put on the design stage, which is most important for reliability ensuring. Principles of robust design and important tools are explained, including FMEA, sensitivity analysis and probabilistic simulation methods. The lifetime prediction of long-life objects can be improved by long-term monitoring of the load response and damage accumulation in operation. The condition evaluation of engineering structures, such as bridges, is often based on visual inspection and verbal description. Here, methods based on fuzzy logic can reduce the subjective influences.

Keywords: Design, fuzzy methods, Monte Carlo, reliability, robust design, sensitivity analysis, simulation, uncertainties.

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2798 An Elin Load Tap Changer Diagnosis by DGA

Authors: Hoda Molavi, Alireza Zahiri, Katayoon Anvarizadeh

Abstract:

Dissolved gas analysis has been accepted as a sensitive, informative and reliable technique for incipient faults detection in power transformers and is widely used. In the last few years this method, which has been recommended by IEEE Power & Energy society, has been applied for fault detection in load tap changers. Regarding the critical role of load tap changers in electrical network and essential of catastrophic failures prevention, it is necessary to choose "condition based preventative maintenance strategy" which leads to reduction in costs, the number of unnecessary visits as well as the probability of interruptions and also increment in equipment reliability. In current work, considering the condition based preventative maintenance strategy, condition assessment of an Elin tap changer was carried out using dissolved gas analysis.

Keywords: Condition Assessment, Dissolved Gas Analysis, Load Tap Changer

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