Search results for: Series compensation

Authors: N. Z. A. Hamid, M. S. M. Noorani

Abstract:

This study is focused on the development of prediction models of the Ozone concentration time series. Prediction model is built based on chaotic approach. Firstly, the chaotic nature of the time series is detected by means of phase space plot and the Cao method. Then, the prediction model is built and the local linear approximation method is used for the forecasting purposes. Traditional prediction of autoregressive linear model is also built. Moreover, an improvement in local linear approximation method is also performed. Prediction models are applied to the hourly Ozone time series observed at the benchmark station in Malaysia. Comparison of all models through the calculation of mean absolute error, root mean squared error and correlation coefficient shows that the one with improved prediction method is the best. Thus, chaotic approach is a good approach to be used to develop a prediction model for the Ozone concentration time series.

Keywords: Chaotic approach, phase space, Cao method, local linear approximation method.

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Authors: Chee Peng Lim, Wei Yee Goh

Abstract:

In this paper, the application of multiple Elman neural networks to time series data regression problems is studied. An ensemble of Elman networks is formed by boosting to enhance the performance of the individual networks. A modified version of the AdaBoost algorithm is employed to integrate the predictions from multiple networks. Two benchmark time series data sets, i.e., the Sunspot and Box-Jenkins gas furnace problems, are used to assess the effectiveness of the proposed system. The simulation results reveal that an ensemble of boosted Elman networks can achieve a higher degree of generalization as well as performance than that of the individual networks. The results are compared with those from other learning systems, and implications of the performance are discussed.

Keywords: AdaBoost, Elman network, neural network ensemble, time series regression.

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Authors: Guoyuan Qi , Yskandar Hamam, Barend Jacobus van Wyk, Shengzhi Du

Abstract:

The majority of existing predictors for time series are model-dependent and therefore require some prior knowledge for the identification of complex systems, usually involving system identification, extensive training, or online adaptation in the case of time-varying systems. Additionally, since a time series is usually generated by complex processes such as the stock market or other chaotic systems, identification, modeling or the online updating of parameters can be problematic. In this paper a model-free predictor (MFP) for a time series produced by an unknown nonlinear system or process is derived using tracking theory. An identical derivation of the MFP using the property of the Newton form of the interpolating polynomial is also presented. The MFP is able to accurately predict future values of a time series, is stable, has few tuning parameters and is desirable for engineering applications due to its simplicity, fast prediction speed and extremely low computational load. The performance of the proposed MFP is demonstrated using the prediction of the Dow Jones Industrial Average stock index.

Keywords: Forecast, model-free predictor, prediction, time series

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Authors: Atefeh Pourshafie, Mohsen. Saniei, S. S. Mortazavi, A. Saeedian

Abstract:

In this paper optimal capacitor placement problem has been formulated in a restructured distribution network. In this scenario the distribution network operator can consider reactive energy also as a service that can be sold to transmission system. Thus search for optimal location, size and number of capacitor banks with the objective of loss reduction, maximum income from selling reactive energy to transmission system and return on investment for capacitors, has been performed. Results is influenced with economic value of reactive energy, therefore problem has been solved for various amounts of it. The implemented optimization technique is genetic algorithm. For any value of reactive power economic value, when reverse of investment index increase and change from zero or negative values to positive values, the threshold value of selling reactive power has been obtained. This increasing price of economic parameter is reasonable until the network losses is less than loss before compensation.

Keywords: capacitor placement, deregulated electric market, distribution network optimization.

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Authors: Veronika Antoniou, Rene Carraz, Yiorgos Hadjichristou

Abstract:

The Green Urban Lab took the form of public installations that were placed at various locations in four cities in Cyprus. These installations - through which a series of events, activities, workshops and research took place - were the main tools in regenerating a series of urban public spaces in Cyprus. The purpose of this project was to identify issues and opportunities related to public space and to offer guidelines on how design and participatory democracy improvements could strengthen civil society, while raising the quality of the urban public scene. Giant inflatable structures were injected in important urban fragments in order to accommodate series of events. The design and playful installation generated a wide community engagement. The fluid presence of the installations acted as a catalyst for social interaction. They were accessed and viewed effortlessly and surprisingly, creating opportunities to rediscover public spaces.

Keywords: Bottom-up initiatives, creativity, public space, social innovation, urban environments.

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Authors: Wen-Chi Liu

Abstract:

This study applies the sequential panel selection method (SPSM) procedure proposed by Chortareas and Kapetanios (2009) to investigate the time-series properties of energy consumption in 50 US states from 1963 to 2009. SPSM involves the classification of the entire panel into a group of stationary series and a group of non-stationary series to identify how many and which series in the panel are stationary processes. Empirical results obtained through SPSM with the panel KSS unit root test developed by Ucar and Omay (2009) combined with a Fourier function indicate that energy consumption in all the 50 US states are stationary. The results of this study have important policy implications for the 50 US states.

Keywords: Energy Consumption, Panel Unit Root, Sequential Panel Selection Method, Fourier Function, US states.

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Authors: Wanda Luen-Wun Siu, Xiaowen Zhang

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This paper offered the primary methodical proof on how director remuneration related to enterprise earnings in listed firms in China in light of most evidence focusing on cross-sectional data or data in a short span of time. Using full economic and business panel data on China’s publicly listed enterprise from 1999 to 2020 over two decades in the China Stock Market & Accounting Research database, we found statistically significant positive associations between director pay and firm performance in privately owned firms over this period, supporting the agency theory. In contrast, among the state-owned enterprises, there was a reverse relation between director compensation and firm financial performance, contributing to the existing literature. But the results also revealed that state-owned enterprises financially performed as well as private enterprises. Such findings suggested that state ownership might line up officials’ career incentives with party prime concern rather than pecuniary incentives. Also, CEO duality enhanced firm performance. As such, allegiance to the party and possible advancement to an upper-level political position would motivate company directors in state-owned enterprises. On the other hand, directors in privately owned enterprises might be motivated by monetary incentives. In addition, a statistical regression model was proposed and tested to get the results of the performance of state-owned enterprises. Finally, some suggestions were made about how to improve the institutional management of government-owned corporations in China.

Keywords: China’s listed Firm, director compensation, CEO duality, firm performance, panel analysis.

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Authors: Chien-Chun Kung, Feng-Lung Chiang, Kuei-Yi Chen, Hsien-Wen Wei, Ming-Yi Huang, Cai-Ming Huang, Sheng-Kai Wang

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The aim of this paper is to present a new three-dimensional proportional-pursuit coupled (PP) guidance law to track highly maneuverable aircraft. Utilizing a 3-D polar coordinate frame, the PP guidance law is formed by collecting proportional navigation guidance in Z-R plane and pursuit guidance in X-Y plane. Feedback linearization control method to solve the guidance accelerations is used to implement PP guidance. In order to compensate the actuator time delay, the time delay compensated version of PP guidance law (CPP) was derived and proved the effectiveness of modifying the problem of high acceleration in the final phase of pursuit guidance and improving the weak robustness of proportional navigation. The simulation results for intercepting Max G turn situation show that the proposed proportional-pursuit coupled guidance law guidance law with actuator delay compensation (CPP) possesses satisfactory robustness and performance.

Keywords: Feedback linearization control, time delay, guidance law, robustness, proportional navigation guidance, pursuit guidance.

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Authors: Nabilah Filzah Mohd Radzuan, Zalinda Othman, Azuraliza Abu Bakar, Abdul Razak Hamdan

Abstract:

Uncertain data is believed to be an important issue in building up a prediction model. The main objective in the time series uncertainty analysis is to formulate uncertain data in order to gain knowledge and fit low dimensional model prior to a prediction task. This paper discusses the performance of a number of techniques in dealing with uncertain data specifically those which solve uncertain data condition by minimizing the loss of compression properties.

Keywords: Compression properties, uncertainty, uncertain time series, mining technique, weather prediction.

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Authors: M. Rahou, A. Cheikh, F. Sebaa

Abstract:

Manufacturing tolerancing is intended to determine the intermediate geometrical and dimensional states of the part during its manufacturing process. These manufacturing dimensions also serve to satisfy not only the functional requirements given in the definition drawing, but also the manufacturing constraints, for example geometrical defects of the machine, vibration and the wear of the cutting tool. In this paper, an experimental study on the influence of the wear of the cutting tool (systematic dispersions) is explored. This study was carried out on three stages .The first stage allows machining without elimination of dispersions (random, systematic) so the tolerances of manufacture according to total dispersions. In the second stage, the results of the first stage are filtered in such way to obtain the tolerances according to random dispersions. Finally, from the two previous stages, the systematic dispersions are generated. The objective of this study is to model by the least squares method the error of manufacture based on systematic dispersion. Finally, an approach of optimization of the manufacturing tolerances was developed for machining on a CNC machine tool

Keywords: Dispersions, Compensation, modeling, manufacturing Tolerance, machine tool.

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Authors: Adil AL-Rammahi

Abstract:

In this paper, a new method for solution of second order linear Fredholm integral equation in power series form was studied. The result is obtained by using Banach fixed point theorem.

Keywords: Fredholm integral equation, power series, Banach fixed point theorem, Linear Systems.

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Authors: P. Nagendra, S. Halder nee Dey, S. Paul, T. Datta

Abstract:

This paper presents a methodology to assess the voltage stability status combined with optimal power flow technique using an instantaneous two-bus equivalent model of power system incorporating static var compensator (SVC) and thyristor controlled series compensator (TCSC) controllers. There by, a generalized global voltage stability indicator being developed has been applied to a robust practical Indian Eastern Grid 203-bus system. Simulation results have proved that the proposed methodology is promising to assess voltage stability of any power system at any operating point in global scenario. Voltage stability augmentation with the application of SVC at the weakest bus and TCSC at critical line connected to the weakest bus is compared with the system having no compensation. In the proposed network equivalent model the generators have been modeled more accurately considering economic criteria.

Keywords: Equivalent two-bus model, global voltage security indicator, optimal power flow, SVC, TCSC.

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Authors: Liping Li, Changchun Liu, Ke Li, Chengyu Liu

Abstract:

Non-stationary trend in R-R interval series is considered as a main factor that could highly influence the evaluation of spectral analysis. It is suggested to remove trends in order to obtain reliable results. In this study, three detrending methods, the smoothness prior approach, the wavelet and the empirical mode decomposition, were compared on artificial R-R interval series with four types of simulated trends. The Lomb-Scargle periodogram was used for spectral analysis of R-R interval series. Results indicated that the wavelet method showed a better overall performance than the other two methods, and more time-saving, too. Therefore it was selected for spectral analysis of real R-R interval series of thirty-seven healthy subjects. Significant decreases (19.94±5.87% in the low frequency band and 18.97±5.78% in the ratio (p<0.001)) were found. Thus the wavelet method is recommended as an optimal choice for use.

Keywords: empirical mode decomposition, heart rate variability, signal detrending, smoothness priors, wavelet

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Authors: Salvatore Marra, Francesco C. Morabito

Abstract:

In this paper we present an efficient approach for the prediction of two sunspot-related time series, namely the Yearly Sunspot Number and the IR5 Index, that are commonly used for monitoring solar activity. The method is based on exploiting partially recurrent Elman networks and it can be divided into three main steps: the first one consists in a “de-rectification" of the time series under study in order to obtain a new time series whose appearance, similar to a sum of sinusoids, can be modelled by our neural networks much better than the original dataset. After that, we normalize the derectified data so that they have zero mean and unity standard deviation and, finally, train an Elman network with only one input, a recurrent hidden layer and one output using a back-propagation algorithm with variable learning rate and momentum. The achieved results have shown the efficiency of this approach that, although very simple, can perform better than most of the existing solar activity forecasting methods.

Keywords: Elman neural networks, sunspot, solar activity, time series prediction.

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Authors: Sagaren Pillay

Abstract:

In this paper bi-annual time series data on unemployment rates (from the Labour Force Survey) are expanded to quarterly rates and linked to quarterly unemployment rates (from the Quarterly Labour Force Survey). The resultant linked series and the consumer price index (CPI) series are examined using Johansen’s cointegration approach and vector error correction modeling. The study finds that both the series are integrated of order one and are cointegrated. A statistically significant co-integrating relationship is found to exist between the time series of unemployment rates and the CPI. Given this significant relationship, the study models this relationship using Vector Error Correction Models (VECM), one with a restriction on the deterministic term and the other with no restriction.

A formal statistical confirmation of the existence of a unique linear and lagged relationship between inflation and unemployment for the period between September 2000 and June 2011 is presented. For the given period, the CPI was found to be an unbiased predictor of the unemployment rate. This relationship can be explored further for the development of appropriate forecasting models incorporating other study variables.

Keywords: Forecasting, lagged, linear, relationship.

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Authors: Shigeaki Sakurai, Ken Ueno, Ryohei Orihara

Abstract:

This paper proposes a method that discovers time series event patterns from textual data with time information. The patterns are composed of sequences of events and each event is extracted from the textual data, where an event is characteristic content included in the textual data such as a company name, an action, and an impression of a customer. The method introduces 7 types of time constraints based on the analysis of the textual data. The method also evaluates these constraints when the frequency of a time series event pattern is calculated. We can flexibly define the time constraints for interesting combinations of events and can discover valid time series event patterns which satisfy these conditions. The paper applies the method to daily business reports collected by a sales force automation system and verifies its effectiveness through numerical experiments.

Keywords: Text mining, sequential mining, time constraints, daily business reports.

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Authors: Charline David, Alexandre Blondin Massé, Arnaud Zinflou

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We present a multiple equation time series approach for the short-term load forecasting applied to the electrical power load consumption for the whole Quebec province, in Canada. More precisely, we take into account three meteorological variables — temperature, cloudiness and wind speed —, and we use meteorological measurements taken at different locations on the territory. Our final model shows an average MAPE score of 1.79% over an 8-years dataset.

Keywords: Short-term load forecasting, special days, time series, multiple equations, parallelization, clustering.

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Authors: Renju Gangadharan, G. N. Pillai, Indra Gupta

Abstract:

In this paper a novel method for finding the fault zone on a Thyristor Controlled Series Capacitor (TCSC) incorporated transmission line is presented. The method makes use of the Support Vector Machine (SVM), used in the classification mode to distinguish between the zones, before or after the TCSC. The use of Discrete Wavelet Transform is made to prepare the features which would be given as the input to the SVM. This method was tested on a 400 kV, 50 Hz, 300 Km transmission line and the results were highly accurate.

Keywords: Flexible ac transmission system (FACTS), thyristorcontrolled series-capacitor (TCSC), discrete wavelet transforms(DWT), support vector machine (SVM).

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Authors: Sidhartha Panda, N.P.Padhy, R.N.Patel

Abstract:

This paper presents a procedure for modeling and tuning the parameters of Thyristor Controlled Series Compensation (TCSC) controller in a multi-machine power system to improve transient stability. First a simple transfer function model of TCSC controller for stability improvement is developed and the parameters of the proposed controller are optimally tuned. Genetic algorithm (GA) is employed for the optimization of the parameter-constrained nonlinear optimization problem implemented in a simulation environment. By minimizing an objective function in which the oscillatory rotor angle deviations of the generators are involved, transient stability performance of the system is improved. The proposed TCSC controller is tested on a multi-machine system and the simulation results are presented. The nonlinear simulation results validate the effectiveness of proposed approach for transient stability improvement in a multimachine power system installed with a TCSC. The simulation results also show that the proposed TCSC controller is also effective in damping low frequency oscillations.

Keywords: Genetic algorithm, TCSC, transient stability, multimachinepower system.

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Authors: Wahab Ali Shah, Junjia He

Abstract:

Transferring electrical power without any wiring has been a dream since late 19^th century. There were some advances in this area as to know more about microwave systems. However, this subject has recently become very attractive due to their practiScal systems. There are low power applications such as charging the batteries of contactless tooth brushes or implanted devices, and higher power applications such as charging the batteries of electrical automobiles or buses. In the first group of applications operating frequencies are in microwave range while the frequency is lower in high power applications. In the latter, the concept is also called inductive power transfer. The aim of the paper is to have an overview of the inductive power transfer for electrical vehicles with a special concentration on coil design and power converter simulation for static charging. Coil design is very important for an efficient and safe power transfer. Coil design is one of the most critical tasks. Power converters are used in both side of the system. The converter on the primary side is used to generate a high frequency voltage to excite the primary coil. The purpose of the converter in the secondary is to rectify the voltage transferred from the primary to charge the battery. In this paper, an inductive power transfer system is studied. Inductive power transfer is a promising technology with several possible applications. Operation principles of these systems are explained, and components of the system are described. Finally, a single phase 2 kW system was simulated and results were presented. The work presented in this paper is just an introduction to the concept. A reformed compensation network based on traditional inductor-capacitor-inductor (LCL) topology is proposed to realize robust reaction to large coupling variation that is common in dynamic wireless charging application. In the future, this type compensation should be studied. Also, comparison of different compensation topologies should be done for the same power level.

Keywords: Coil design, contactless charging, electrical automobiles, inductive power transfer, operating frequency.

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Authors: I. Tiryakioglu, M. A. Ugur, C. Ozkaymak

Abstract:

The development of Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) technology has led to increasingly widely and successful applications of GNSS surveys for monitoring crustal movements. Instead of the multi-period GNSS solutions, this study utilizes GNSS time series that are required to more precisely determine the vertical deformations in the study area. In recent years, the surface deformations that are parallel and semi-parallel to Bolvadin fault have occurred in Western Anatolia. These surface deformations have continued to occur in Bolvadin settlement area that is located mostly on alluvium ground. Due to these surface deformations, a number of cracks in the buildings located in the residential areas and breaks in underground water and sewage systems have been observed. In order to determine the amount of vertical surface deformations, two continuous GNSS stations have been established in the region. The stations have been operating since 2015 and 2017, respectively. In this study, GNSS observations from the mentioned two GNSS stations were processed with GAMIT/GLOBK (GNSS Analysis Massachusetts Institute of Technology/GLOBal Kalman) program package to create coordinate time series. With the time series analyses, the GNSS stations’ behaviour models (linear, periodical, etc.), the causes of these behaviours, and mathematical models were determined. The study results from the time series analysis of these two 2 GNSS stations show approximately 50-90 mm/yr vertical movement.

Keywords: Bolvadin fault, GAMIT, GNSS time series, surface deformations.

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Authors: Tahseen A. Jilani, Aqil S. Burney, C. Ardil

Abstract:

Time series models have been used to make predictions of academic enrollments, weather, road accident, casualties and stock prices, etc. Based on the concepts of quartile regression models, we have developed a simple time variant quantile based fuzzy time series forecasting method. The proposed method bases the forecast using prediction of future trend of the data. In place of actual quantiles of the data at each point, we have converted the statistical concept into fuzzy concept by using fuzzy quantiles using fuzzy membership function ensemble. We have given a fuzzy metric to use the trend forecast and calculate the future value. The proposed model is applied for TAIFEX forecasting. It is shown that proposed method work best as compared to other models when compared with respect to model complexity and forecasting accuracy.

Keywords: Quantile Regression, Fuzzy time series, fuzzy logicalrelationship groups, heuristic trend prediction.

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Authors: Young-Seok Choi

Abstract:

This paper presents a multiscale information measure of Electroencephalogram (EEG) for analysis with a short data length. A multiscale extension of permutation entropy (MPE) is capable of fully reflecting the dynamical characteristics of EEG across different temporal scales. However, MPE yields an imprecise estimation due to coarse-grained procedure at large scales. We present an improved MPE measure to estimate entropy more accurately with a short time series. By computing entropies of all coarse-grained time series and averaging those at each scale, it leads to the modified MPE (MMPE) which provides an enhanced accuracy as compared to MPE. Simulation and experimental studies confirmed that MMPE has proved its capability over MPE in terms of accuracy.

Keywords: Multiscale entropy, permutation entropy, EEG, seizure.

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Authors: Maria C. Mariani, Md Al Masum Bhuiyan, Osei K. Tweneboah, Hector G. Huizar

Abstract:

This work is devoted to the study of modeling geophysical time series. A stochastic technique with time-varying parameters is used to forecast the volatility of data arising in geophysics. In this study, the volatility is defined as a logarithmic first-order autoregressive process. We observe that the inclusion of log-volatility into the time-varying parameter estimation significantly improves forecasting which is facilitated via maximum likelihood estimation. This allows us to conclude that the estimation algorithm for the corresponding one-step-ahead suggested volatility (with ±2 standard prediction errors) is very feasible since it possesses good convergence properties.

Keywords: Augmented Dickey Fuller Test, geophysical time series, maximum likelihood estimation, stochastic volatility model.

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Authors: Essa Abrahim Abdulgader Saleem, Thien-My Dao

Abstract:

The main objective of this paper is to optimize series-parallel system reliability using Genetic Algorithm (GA) and statistical analysis; considering system reliability constraints which involve the redundant numbers of selected components, total cost, and total weight. To perform this work, firstly the mathematical model which maximizes system reliability subject to maximum system cost and maximum system weight constraints is presented; secondly, a statistical analysis is used to optimize GA parameters, and thirdly GA is used to optimize series-parallel systems reliability. The objective is to determine the strategy choosing the redundancy level for each subsystem to maximize the overall system reliability subject to total cost and total weight constraints. Finally, the series-parallel system case study reliability optimization results are showed, and comparisons with the other previous results are presented to demonstrate the performance of our GA.

Keywords: Genetic algorithm, optimization, reliability, statistical analysis.

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Authors: S. V. Yendiyarov

Abstract:

Pattern discovery from time series is of fundamental importance. Particularly, when information about the structure of a pattern is not complete, an algorithm to discover specific patterns or shapes automatically from the time series data is necessary. The dynamic time warping is a technique that allows local flexibility in aligning time series. Because of this, it is widely used in many fields such as science, medicine, industry, finance and others. However, a major problem of the dynamic time warping is that it is not able to work with structural changes of a pattern. This problem arises when the structure is influenced by noise, which is a common thing in practice for almost every application. This paper addresses this problem by means of developing a novel technique called adaptive dynamic time warping.

Keywords: Pattern recognition, optimal control, quadratic programming, dynamic programming, dynamic time warping, sintering control.

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Authors: B. S. Saini, Dilbag Singh, Moin Uddin, Vinod Kumar

Abstract:

The RR interval series is non-stationary and unevenly spaced in time. For estimating its power spectral density (PSD) using traditional techniques like FFT, require resampling at uniform intervals. The researchers have used different interpolation techniques as resampling methods. All these resampling methods introduce the low pass filtering effect in the power spectrum. The lomb transform is a means of obtaining PSD estimates directly from irregularly sampled RR interval series, thus avoiding resampling. In this work, the superiority of Lomb transform method has been established over FFT based approach, after applying linear and cubicspline interpolation as resampling methods, in terms of reproduction of exact frequency locations as well as the relative magnitudes of each spectral component.

Keywords: HRV, Lomb Transform, Resampling, RR-intervals.

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Authors: Kheldoun Aissa, Khodja Djalal Eddine

Abstract:

The iron loss is a source of detuning in vector controlled induction motor drives if the classical rotor vector controller is used for decoupling. In fact, the field orientation will not be satisfied and the output torque will not truck the reference torque mostly used by Loss Model Controllers (LMCs). In addition, this component of loss, among others, may be excessive if the vector controlled induction motor is driving light loads. In this paper, the series iron loss model is used to develop a vector controller immune to iron loss effect and then an LMC to minimize the total power loss using the torque generated by the speed controller.

Keywords: Field Oriented Controller, Induction Motor, Loss ModelController, Series Iron Loss.

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Authors: Farhad Asadi, Mohammad Javad Mollakazemi, Aref Ghafouri

Abstract:

Recent research in neural networks science and neuroscience for modeling complex time series data and statistical learning has focused mostly on learning from high input space and signals. Local linear models are a strong choice for modeling local nonlinearity in data series. Locally weighted projection regression is a flexible and powerful algorithm for nonlinear approximation in high dimensional signal spaces. In this paper, different learning scenario of one and two dimensional data series with different distributions are investigated for simulation and further noise is inputted to data distribution for making different disordered distribution in time series data and for evaluation of algorithm in locality prediction of nonlinearity. Then, the performance of this algorithm is simulated and also when the distribution of data is high or when the number of data is less the sensitivity of this approach to data distribution and influence of important parameter of local validity in this algorithm with different data distribution is explained.

Keywords: Local nonlinear estimation, LWPR algorithm, Online training method.

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Authors: Wullapa Wongsinlatam

Abstract:

Back propagation algorithm (BP) is a widely used technique in artificial neural network and has been used as a tool for solving the time series problems, such as decreasing training time, maximizing the ability to fall into local minima, and optimizing sensitivity of the initial weights and bias. This paper proposes an improvement of a BP technique which is called IM-COH algorithm (IM-COH). By combining IM-COH algorithm with cuckoo search algorithm (CS), the result is cuckoo search improved control output hidden layer algorithm (CS-IM-COH). This new algorithm has a better ability in optimizing sensitivity of the initial weights and bias than the original BP algorithm. In this research, the algorithm of CS-IM-COH is compared with the original BP, the IM-COH, and the original BP with CS (CS-BP). Furthermore, the selected benchmarks, four time series samples, are shown in this research for illustration. The research shows that the CS-IM-COH algorithm give the best forecasting results compared with the selected samples.

Keywords: Artificial neural networks, back propagation algorithm, time series, local minima problem, metaheuristic optimization.

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