Search results for: Risk acceptance and Multi-objective optimization.
Commenced in January 2007
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Edition: International
Paper Count: 3031

Search results for: Risk acceptance and Multi-objective optimization.

2761 The Role of Optimization and Machine Learning in e-Commerce Logistics in 2030

Authors: Vincenzo Capalbo, Gianpaolo Ghiani, Emanuele Manni

Abstract:

Global e-commerce sales have reached unprecedented levels in the past few years. As this trend is only predicted to go up as we continue into the ’20s, new challenges will be faced by companies when planning and controlling e-commerce logistics. In this paper, we survey the related literature on Optimization and Machine Learning as well as on combined methodologies. We also identify the distinctive features of next-generation planning algorithms - namely scalability, model-and-run features and learning capabilities - that will be fundamental to cope with the scale and complexity of logistics in the next decade.

Keywords: e-Commerce, Logistics, Machine Learning, Optimization.

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2760 Representations of Childcare Robots as a Controversial Issue

Authors: Raya A. Jones

Abstract:

This paper interrogates online representations of robot companions for children, including promotional material by manufacturers, media articles and technology blogs. The significance of the study lies in its contribution to understanding attitudes to robots. The prospect of childcare robots is particularly controversial ethically, and is associated with emotive arguments. The sampled material is restricted to relatively recent posts (the past three years) though the analysis identifies both continuous and changing themes across the past decade. The method extrapolates social representations theory towards examining the ways in which information about robotic products is provided for the general public. Implications for social acceptance of robot companions for the home and robot ethics are considered.

Keywords: Acceptance of robots, childcare robots, ethics, social representations.

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2759 Shape Optimization of Permanent Magnet Motors Using the Reduced Basis Technique

Authors: A. Jabbari, M. Shakeri, A. Nabavi

Abstract:

In this paper, a tooth shape optimization method for cogging torque reduction in Permanent Magnet (PM) motors is developed by using the Reduced Basis Technique (RBT) coupled by Finite Element Analysis (FEA) and Design of Experiments (DOE) methods. The primary objective of the method is to reduce the enormous number of design variables required to define the tooth shape. RBT is a weighted combination of several basis shapes. The aim of the method is to find the best combination using the weights for each tooth shape as the design variables. A multi-level design process is developed to find suitable basis shapes or trial shapes at each level that can be used in the reduced basis technique. Each level is treated as a separated optimization problem until the required objective – minimum cogging torque – is achieved. The process is started with geometrically simple basis shapes that are defined by their shape co-ordinates. The experimental design of Taguchi method is used to build the approximation model and to perform optimization. This method is demonstrated on the tooth shape optimization of a 8-poles/12-slots PM motor.

Keywords: PM motor, cogging torque, tooth shape optimization, RBT, FEA, DOE.

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2758 Bin Bloom Filter Using Heuristic Optimization Techniques for Spam Detection

Authors: N. Arulanand, K. Premalatha

Abstract:

Bloom filter is a probabilistic and memory efficient data structure designed to answer rapidly whether an element is present in a set. It tells that the element is definitely not in the set but its presence is with certain probability. The trade-off to use Bloom filter is a certain configurable risk of false positives. The odds of a false positive can be made very low if the number of hash function is sufficiently large. For spam detection, weight is attached to each set of elements. The spam weight for a word is a measure used to rate the e-mail. Each word is assigned to a Bloom filter based on its weight. The proposed work introduces an enhanced concept in Bloom filter called Bin Bloom Filter (BBF). The performance of BBF over conventional Bloom filter is evaluated under various optimization techniques. Real time data set and synthetic data sets are used for experimental analysis and the results are demonstrated for bin sizes 4, 5, 6 and 7. Finally analyzing the results, it is found that the BBF which uses heuristic techniques performs better than the traditional Bloom filter in spam detection.

Keywords: Cuckoo search algorithm, levy’s flight, metaheuristic, optimal weight.

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2757 Project Risk Management Techniques in Resource Allocation, Scheduling and Planning

Authors: Hossein Amoozad Khalili, Anahita Maleki

Abstract:

Normally business changes are made in order to change a level of activity in some way, whether it is sales, cash flow, productivity, or product portfolio. When attempts are made to make such changes, too often the business reverts to the old levels of activity as soon as management attention is diverted. Risk management is a field of growing interest to project managers as well as in general business and organizational management. There are several approaches used to manage risk in projects and this paper is a brief outline of some that you might encounter, with an indication of their strengths and weaknesses.

Keywords: Risk Management, Project Management, Scheduling, Planning

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2756 Optimized Algorithm for Particle Swarm Optimization

Authors: Fuzhang Zhao

Abstract:

Particle swarm optimization (PSO) is becoming one of the most important swarm intelligent paradigms for solving global optimization problems. Although some progress has been made to improve PSO algorithms over the last two decades, additional work is still needed to balance parameters to achieve better numerical properties of accuracy, efficiency, and stability. In the optimal PSO algorithm, the optimal weightings of (√ 5 − 1)/2 and (3 − √5)/2 are used for the cognitive factor and the social factor, respectively. By the same token, the same optimal weightings have been applied for intensification searches and diversification searches, respectively. Perturbation and constriction effects are optimally balanced. Simulations of the de Jong, the Rosenbrock, and the Griewank functions show that the optimal PSO algorithm indeed achieves better numerical properties and outperforms the canonical PSO algorithm.

Keywords: Diversification search, intensification search, optimal weighting, particle swarm optimization.

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2755 Impact of Liquidity Crunch on Interbank Network

Authors: I. Lucas, N. Schomberg, F-A. Couturier

Abstract:

Most empirical studies have analyzed how liquidity risks faced by individual institutions turn into systemic risk. Recent banking crisis has highlighted the importance of grasping and controlling the systemic risk, and the acceptance by Central Banks to ease their monetary policies for saving default or illiquid banks. This last point shows that banks would pay less attention to liquidity risk which, in turn, can become a new important channel of loss. The financial regulation focuses on the most important and “systemic” banks in the global network. However, to quantify the expected loss associated with liquidity risk, it is worth to analyze sensitivity to this channel for the various elements of the global bank network. A small bank is not considered as potentially systemic; however the interaction of small banks all together can become a systemic element. This paper analyzes the impact of medium and small banks interaction on a set of banks which is considered as the core of the network. The proposed method uses the structure of agent-based model in a two-class environment. In first class, the data from actual balance sheets of 22 large and systemic banks (such as BNP Paribas or Barclays) are collected. In second one, to model a network as closely as possible to actual interbank market, 578 fictitious banks smaller than the ones belonging to first class have been split into two groups of small and medium ones. All banks are active on the European interbank network and have deposit and market activity. A simulation of 12 three month periods representing a midterm time interval three years is projected. In each period, there is a set of behavioral descriptions: repayment of matured loans, liquidation of deposits, income from securities, collection of new deposits, new demands of credit, and securities sale. The last two actions are part of refunding process developed in this paper. To strengthen reliability of proposed model, random parameters dynamics are managed with stochastic equations as rates the variations of which are generated by Vasicek model. The Central Bank is considered as the lender of last resort which allows banks to borrow at REPO rate and some ejection conditions of banks from the system are introduced.

Liquidity crunch due to exogenous crisis is simulated in the first class and the loss impact on other bank classes is analyzed though aggregate values representing the aggregate of loans and/or the aggregate of borrowing between classes. It is mainly shown that the three groups of European interbank network do not have the same response, and that intermediate banks are the most sensitive to liquidity risk.

Keywords: Systemic Risk, Financial Contagion, Liquidity Risk, Interbank Market, Network Model.

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2754 Risk Assessment Results in Biogas Production from Agriculture Biomass

Authors: Sandija Zeverte-Rivza, Irina Pilvere, Baiba Rivza

Abstract:

The use of renewable energy sources incl. biogas has become topical in accordance with the increasing demand for energy, decrease of fossil energy resources and the efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions as well as to increase energy independence from the territories where fossil energy resources are available.

As the technologies of biogas production from agricultural biomass develop, risk assessment and risk management become necessary for farms producing such a renewable energy. The need for risk assessments has become particularly topical when discussions on changing the biogas policy in the EU take place, which may influence the development of the sector in the future, as well as the operation of existing biogas facilities and their income level.

The current article describes results of the risk assessment for farms producing biomass from agriculture biomass in Latvia, the risk assessment system included 24 risks, that affect the whole biogas production process and the obtained results showed the high significance of political and production risks.

Keywords: Biogas production, risks, risk assessment.

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2753 Application of Artificial Intelligence for Tuning the Parameters of an AGC

Authors: R. N. Patel

Abstract:

This paper deals with the tuning of parameters for Automatic Generation Control (AGC). A two area interconnected hydrothermal system with PI controller is considered. Genetic Algorithm (GA) and Particle Swarm optimization (PSO) algorithms have been applied to optimize the controller parameters. Two objective functions namely Integral Square Error (ISE) and Integral of Time-multiplied Absolute value of the Error (ITAE) are considered for optimization. The effectiveness of an objective function is considered based on the variation in tie line power and change in frequency in both the areas. MATLAB/SIMULINK was used as a simulation tool. Simulation results reveal that ITAE is a better objective function than ISE. Performances of optimization algorithms are also compared and it was found that genetic algorithm gives better results than particle swarm optimization algorithm for the problems of AGC.

Keywords: Area control error, Artificial intelligence, Automatic generation control, Genetic Algorithms and modeling, ISE, ITAE, Particle swarm optimization.

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2752 Fault Location Identification in High Voltage Transmission Lines

Authors: Khaled M. El Naggar

Abstract:

This paper introduces a digital method for fault section identification in transmission lines. The method uses digital set of the measured short circuit current to locate faults in electrical power systems. The digitized current is used to construct a set of overdetermined system of equations. The problem is then constructed and solved using the proposed digital optimization technique to find the fault distance. The proposed optimization methodology is an application of simulated annealing optimization technique. The method is tested using practical case study to evaluate the proposed method. The accurate results obtained show that the algorithm can be used as a powerful tool in the area of power system protection.

Keywords: Optimization, estimation, faults, measurement, high voltage, simulated annealing.

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2751 Application of Ant Colony Optimization for Multi-objective Production Problems

Authors: Teerapun Saeheaw, Nivit Charoenchai, Wichai Chattinnawat

Abstract:

This paper proposes a meta-heuristic called Ant Colony Optimization to solve multi-objective production problems. The multi-objective function is to minimize lead time and work in process. The problem is related to the decision variables, i.e.; distance and process time. According to decision criteria, the mathematical model is formulated. In order to solve the model an ant colony optimization approach has been developed. The proposed algorithm is parameterized by the number of ant colonies and the number of pheromone trails. One example is given to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed model. The proposed formulations; Max-Min Ant system are then used to solve the problem and the results evaluate the performance and efficiency of the proposed algorithm using simulation.

Keywords: Ant colony optimization, multi-objective problems.

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2750 Critical Psychosocial Risk Treatment for Engineers and Technicians

Authors: R. Berglund, T. Backström, M. Bellgran

Abstract:

This study explores how management addresses psychosocial risks in seven teams of engineers and technicians in the midst of the fourth industrial revolution. The sample is from an ongoing quasi-experiment about psychosocial risk management in a manufacturing company in Sweden. Each of the seven teams belongs to one of two clusters: a positive cluster or a negative cluster. The positive cluster reports a significantly positive change in psychosocial risk levels between two time-points and the negative cluster reports a significantly negative change. The data are collected using semi-structured interviews. The results of the computer aided thematic analysis show that there are more differences than similarities when comparing the risk treatment actions taken between the two clusters. Findings show that the managers in the positive cluster use more enabling actions that foster and support formal and informal relationship building. In contrast, managers that use less enabling actions hinder the development of positive group processes and contribute negative changes in psychosocial risk levels. This exploratory study sheds some light on how management can influence significant positive and negative changes in psychosocial risk levels during a risk management process.

Keywords: Group process model, risk treatment, risk management, psychosocial.

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2749 Links between Landscape Management and Environmental Risk Assessment: Considerations from the Italian Context

Authors: M. Balestrieri, C. Pusceddu

Abstract:

Issues relating to the destructive phenomena that can damage people and goods have returned to the centre of debate in Italy with the increase in catastrophic episodes in recent years in a country which is highly vulnerable to hydrological risk. Environmental factors and geological and geomorphological territorial characteristics play an important role in determining the level of vulnerability and the natural tendency to risk. However, a territory has also been subjected to the requirements of and transformations of society and this brings other relevant factors. The reasons for the increase in destructive phenomena are often to be found in the territorial development models adopted. Stewardship of the landscape and management of risk are related issues. This study aims to summarize the most relevant elements about this connection and at the same time to clarify the role of environmental risk assessment as a tool to aid in the sustainable management of landscape. Finally, the study reflects on how regional and urban planners deal with environmental risk and which aspects should be monitored in order to adopt responsible and useful interventions.

Keywords: Assessment, landscape, risk, planning.

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2748 A Query Optimization Strategy for Autonomous Distributed Database Systems

Authors: Dina K. Badawy, Dina M. Ibrahim, Alsayed A. Sallam

Abstract:

Distributed database is a collection of logically related databases that cooperate in a transparent manner. Query processing uses a communication network for transmitting data between sites. It refers to one of the challenges in the database world. The development of sophisticated query optimization technology is the reason for the commercial success of database systems, which complexity and cost increase with increasing number of relations in the query. Mariposa, query trading and query trading with processing task-trading strategies developed for autonomous distributed database systems, but they cause high optimization cost because of involvement of all nodes in generating an optimal plan. In this paper, we proposed a modification on the autonomous strategy K-QTPT that make the seller’s nodes with the lowest cost have gradually high priorities to reduce the optimization time. We implement our proposed strategy and present the results and analysis based on those results.

Keywords: Autonomous strategies, distributed database systems, high priority, query optimization.

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2747 Elephant Herding Optimization for Service Selection in QoS-Aware Web Service Composition

Authors: Samia Sadouki Chibani, Abdelkamel Tari

Abstract:

Web service composition combines available services to provide new functionality. Given the number of available services with similar functionalities and different non functional aspects (QoS), the problem of finding a QoS-optimal web service composition is considered as an optimization problem belonging to NP-hard class. Thus, an optimal solution cannot be found by exact algorithms within a reasonable time. In this paper, a meta-heuristic bio-inspired is presented to address the QoS aware web service composition; it is based on Elephant Herding Optimization (EHO) algorithm, which is inspired by the herding behavior of elephant group. EHO is characterized by a process of dividing and combining the population to sub populations (clan); this process allows the exchange of information between local searches to move toward a global optimum. However, with Applying others evolutionary algorithms the problem of early stagnancy in a local optimum cannot be avoided. Compared with PSO, the results of experimental evaluation show that our proposition significantly outperforms the existing algorithm with better performance of the fitness value and a fast convergence.

Keywords: Elephant herding optimization, web service composition, bio-inspired algorithms, QoS optimization.

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2746 Choosing Search Algorithms in Bayesian Optimization Algorithm

Authors: Hao Wu, Jonathan L. Shapiro

Abstract:

The Bayesian Optimization Algorithm (BOA) is an algorithm based on the estimation of distributions. It uses techniques from modeling data by Bayesian networks to estimating the joint distribution of promising solutions. To obtain the structure of Bayesian network, different search algorithms can be used. The key point that BOA addresses is whether the constructed Bayesian network could generate new and useful solutions (strings), which could lead the algorithm in the right direction to solve the problem. Undoubtedly, this ability is a crucial factor of the efficiency of BOA. Varied search algorithms can be used in BOA, but their performances are different. For choosing better ones, certain suitable method to present their ability difference is needed. In this paper, a greedy search algorithm and a stochastic search algorithm are used in BOA to solve certain optimization problem. A method using Kullback-Leibler (KL) Divergence to reflect their difference is described.

Keywords: Bayesian optimization algorithm, greedy search, KL divergence, stochastic search.

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2745 Identifying Corruption in Legislation using Risk Analysis Methods

Authors: Chvalkovska, J., Jansky, P., Mejstrik, M.

Abstract:

The objective of this article is to discuss the potential of economic analysis as a tool for identification and evaluation of corruption in legislative acts. We propose that corruption be perceived as a risk variable within the legislative process. Therefore we find it appropriate to employ risk analysis methods, used in various fields of economics, for the evaluation of corruption in legislation. Furthermore we propose the incorporation of these methods into the so called corruption impact assessment (CIA), the general framework for detection of corruption in legislative acts. The applications of the risk analysis methods are demonstrated on examples of implementation of proposed CIA in the Czech Republic.

Keywords: corruption; corruption impact assessment (CIA); legislative; legislative process; risk analysis; Czech Republic

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2744 Genetic Algorithm Optimization of the Economical, Ecological and Self-Consumption Impact of the Energy Production of a Single Building

Authors: Ludovic Favre, Thibaut M. Schafer, Jean-Luc Robyr, Elena-Lavinia Niederhäuser

Abstract:

This paper presents an optimization method based on genetic algorithm for the energy management inside buildings developed in the frame of the project Smart Living Lab (SLL) in Fribourg (Switzerland). This algorithm optimizes the interaction between renewable energy production, storage systems and energy consumers. In comparison with standard algorithms, the innovative aspect of this project is the extension of the smart regulation over three simultaneous criteria: the energy self-consumption, the decrease of greenhouse gas emissions and operating costs. The genetic algorithm approach was chosen due to the large quantity of optimization variables and the non-linearity of the optimization function. The optimization process includes also real time data of the building as well as weather forecast and users habits. This information is used by a physical model of the building energy resources to predict the future energy production and needs, to select the best energetic strategy, to combine production or storage of energy in order to guarantee the demand of electrical and thermal energy. The principle of operation of the algorithm as well as typical output example of the algorithm is presented.

Keywords: Building’s energy, control system, energy management, modelling, genetic optimization algorithm, renewable energy, greenhouse gases, energy storage.

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2743 Debts and Debt-Based Sukuk Related to Risk Shifting Behavior

Authors: Siti Raihana Hamzah

Abstract:

This paper elaborates risk shifting in debt financing system as the ultimate cause of the global financial crisis. In contrast, risk sharing in equity financing like sukuk helps the economic system to be better sustained. Nevertheless, some types of sukuk are haunted by the issue of imitation with bonds. The critics on the imitation issue not only have raised doubt on the ability of sukuk to diminish risk shifting behavior but also the ability of this Islamic financial instrument to ensure better future financial stability. Through that, this paper provides discussion on the possibility of sukuk to induce risk shifting and how equity financing may help sukuk to be free from risk shifting. This paper is important in the sense that sukuk receives a significant demand from investors throughout the world. For this instrument to be supportive in the future economic stability, the issue of imitation needs to be identified and addressed. Furthermore, critics cannot be focused on debts and its ability to gauge the financial flux but also to sukuk due to their structures similarity.

Keywords: Global financial crisis, debt, risk-shifting, risk sharing, equity, sukuk, bonds.

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2742 Relation between Roots and Tangent Lines of Function in Fractional Dimensions: A Method for Optimization Problems

Authors: Ali Dorostkar

Abstract:

In this paper, a basic schematic of fractional dimensional optimization problem is presented. As will be shown, a method is performed based on a relation between roots and tangent lines of function in fractional dimensions for an arbitrary initial point. It is shown that for each polynomial function with order N at least N tangent lines must be existed in fractional dimensions of 0 < α < N+1 which pass exactly through the all roots of the proposed function. Geometrical analysis of tangent lines in fractional dimensions is also presented to clarify more intuitively the proposed method. Results show that with an appropriate selection of fractional dimensions, we can directly find the roots. Method is presented for giving a different direction of optimization problems by the use of fractional dimensions.

Keywords: Tangent line, fractional dimension, root, optimization problem.

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2741 Evaluation of Risk Attributes Driven by Periodically Changing System Functionality

Authors: Dariusz Dymek, Leszek Kotulski

Abstract:

Modeling of the distributed systems allows us to represent the whole its functionality. The working system instance rarely fulfils the whole functionality represented by model; usually some parts of this functionality should be accessible periodically. The reporting system based on the Data Warehouse concept seams to be an intuitive example of the system that some of its functionality is required only from time to time. Analyzing an enterprise risk associated with the periodical change of the system functionality, we should consider not only the inaccessibility of the components (object) but also their functions (methods), and the impact of such a situation on the system functionality from the business point of view. In the paper we suggest that the risk attributes should be estimated from risk attributes specified at the requirements level (Use Case in the UML model) on the base of the information about the structure of the model (presented at other levels of the UML model). We argue that it is desirable to consider the influence of periodical changes in requirements on the enterprise risk estimation. Finally, the proposition of such a solution basing on the UML system model is presented.

Keywords: Risk assessing, software maintenance, UML, graph grammars.

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2740 Optimization Technique in Scheduling Duck Tours

Authors: Norhazwani M. Y., Khoo, C. F., Hasrul Nisham R.

Abstract:

Tourism industries are rapidly increased for the last few years especially in Malaysia. In order to attract more tourists, Malaysian Governance encourages any effort to increase Malaysian tourism industry. One of the efforts in attracting more tourists in Malacca, Malaysia is a duck tour. Duck tour is an amphibious sightseeing tour that works in two types of engines, hence, it required a huge cost to operate and maintain the vehicle. To other country, it is not so new but in Malaysia, it is just introduced, thus it does not have any systematic routing yet. Therefore, this paper proposed an optimization technique to formulate and schedule this tour to minimize the operating costs by considering it into Travelling Salesman Problem (TSP). The problem is then can be solved by one of the optimization technique especially meta-heuristics approach such as Tabu Search (TS) and Reactive Tabu Search (RTS).

Keywords: Optimization, Reactive Tabu Search, Tabu Search, Travelling Salesman Problem

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2739 Robust FACTS Controller Design Employing Modern Heuristic Optimization Techniques

Authors: A.K.Balirsingh, S.C.Swain, S. Panda

Abstract:

Recently, Genetic Algorithms (GA) and Differential Evolution (DE) algorithm technique have attracted considerable attention among various modern heuristic optimization techniques. Since the two approaches are supposed to find a solution to a given objective function but employ different strategies and computational effort, it is appropriate to compare their performance. This paper presents the application and performance comparison of DE and GA optimization techniques, for flexible ac transmission system (FACTS)-based controller design. The design objective is to enhance the power system stability. The design problem of the FACTS-based controller is formulated as an optimization problem and both the PSO and GA optimization techniques are employed to search for optimal controller parameters. The performance of both optimization techniques has been compared. Further, the optimized controllers are tested on a weekly connected power system subjected to different disturbances, and their performance is compared with the conventional power system stabilizer (CPSS). The eigenvalue analysis and non-linear simulation results are presented and compared to show the effectiveness of both the techniques in designing a FACTS-based controller, to enhance power system stability.

Keywords: Differential Evolution, Flexible AC TransmissionSystems (FACTS), Genetic Algorithm, Low Frequency Oscillations, Single-machine Infinite Bus Power System.

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2738 Analyzing the Effects of Adding Bitcoin to Portfolio

Authors: Shashwat Gangwal

Abstract:

This paper analyses the effect of adding Bitcoin, to the portfolio (stocks, bonds, Baltic index, MXEF, gold, real estate and crude oil) of an international investor by using daily data available from 2nd of July, 2010 to 2nd of August, 2016. We conclude that adding Bitcoin to portfolio, over the course of the considered period, always yielded a higher Sharpe ratio. This means that Bitcoin’s returns offset its high volatility. This paper, recognizing the fact that Bitcoin is a relatively new asset class, gives the readers a basic idea about the working of the virtual currency, the increasing number developments in the financial industry revolving around it, its unique features and the detailed look into its continuously growing acceptance across different fronts (Banks, Merchants and Countries) globally. We also construct optimal portfolios to reflect the highly lucrative and largely unexplored opportunities associated with investment in Bitcoin.

Keywords: Portfolio management, Bitcoin, optimization, Sharpe ratio.

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2737 Residents’ Perceptions towards the Application of Vertical Landscape in Cairo, Egypt

Authors: Yomna Amr Ahmed Lotfi Koraim, Dalia Moati Rasmi Elkhateeb

Abstract:

Vertical landscape is introduced in this study as an alternative innovative technology for urban sustainable developments for its diverse environmental, economic, and psycho-social advantages. The main aim is to investigate the social acceptance of vertical landscape in Cairo, Egypt. The study objectives were to explore the perceptions of residents concerning this certain phenomenon and their opinions about its implementation. Survey questionnaires were administrated to 60 male and female residents from the Greater Cairo area. Despite the various concerns expressed about the application of vertical landscape, there was a clear majority of approval about its suitability. This is quite encouraging for the prospect of vertical landscape implementation in Cairo, Egypt.

Keywords: Vertical landscape, green facades, social acceptance, sustainable urban development.

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2736 Multidimensional and Data Mining Analysis for Property Investment Risk Analysis

Authors: Nur Atiqah Rochin Demong, Jie Lu, Farookh Khadeer Hussain

Abstract:

Property investment in the real estate industry has a high risk due to the uncertainty factors that will affect the decisions made and high cost. Analytic hierarchy process has existed for some time in which referred to an expert-s opinion to measure the uncertainty of the risk factors for the risk analysis. Therefore, different level of experts- experiences will create different opinion and lead to the conflict among the experts in the field. The objective of this paper is to propose a new technique to measure the uncertainty of the risk factors based on multidimensional data model and data mining techniques as deterministic approach. The propose technique consist of a basic framework which includes four modules: user, technology, end-user access tools and applications. The property investment risk analysis defines as a micro level analysis as the features of the property will be considered in the analysis in this paper.

Keywords: Uncertainty factors, data mining, multidimensional data model, risk analysis.

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2735 Comprehensive Evaluation on China-s Industrial Structure Optimization from the Perspective of Coordination

Authors: Ying Wang

Abstract:

From the perspective of industrial structure coordination and based on an explicit definition for the connotation of industrial structure coordination, the synergetic coefficients are used to measure the coordination degree between three industries' input structure and output structure, and then the efficacy function method is employed to comprehensively evaluate the level of China-s industrial structure optimization. It is showed that Chinese industrial structure presented a "v-shaped" variation tendency between 1996 and 2008, and its industrial structure adjustment got obvious achievements after 2003, with the industrial structure optimization level increasing continuously. However in 2009, the level of China-s industrial structure optimization declined sharply due to the decreasing contribution degree of value added structure and energy structure coordination and the lower coordination degree of value added structure and capital structure.

Keywords: China's industrial structure, Coordination degree, Efficacy function, Synergetic coefficients

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2734 Bee Colony Optimization Applied to the Bin Packing Problem

Authors: Kenza Aida Amara, Bachir Djebbar

Abstract:

We treat the two-dimensional bin packing problem which involves packing a given set of rectangles into a minimum number of larger identical rectangles called bins. This combinatorial problem is NP-hard. We propose a pretreatment for the oriented version of the problem that allows the valorization of the lost areas in the bins and the reduction of the size problem. A heuristic method based on the strategy first-fit adapted to this problem is presented. We present an approach of resolution by bee colony optimization. Computational results express a comparison of the number of bins used with and without pretreatment.

Keywords: Bee colony optimization, bin packing, heuristic algorithm, pretreatment.

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2733 A Mahalanobis Distance-based Diversification and Nelder-Mead Simplex Intensification Search Scheme for Continuous Ant Colony Optimization

Authors: Sasadhar Bera, Indrajit Mukherjee

Abstract:

Ant colony optimization (ACO) and its variants are applied extensively to resolve various continuous optimization problems. As per the various diversification and intensification schemes of ACO for continuous function optimization, researchers generally consider components of multidimensional state space to generate the new search point(s). However, diversifying to a new search space by updating only components of the multidimensional vector may not ensure that the new point is at a significant distance from the current solution. If a minimum distance is not ensured during diversification, then there is always a possibility that the search will end up with reaching only local optimum. Therefore, to overcome such situations, a Mahalanobis distance-based diversification with Nelder-Mead simplex-based search scheme for each ant is proposed for the ACO strategy. A comparative computational run results, based on nine nonlinear standard test problems, confirms that the performance of ACO is improved significantly with the integration of the proposed schemes in the ACO.

Keywords: Ant Colony Optimization, Diversification Scheme, Intensification, Mahalanobis Distance, Nelder-Mead Simplex.

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2732 A Fuzzy Satisfactory Optimization Method Based on Stress Analysis for a Hybrid Composite Flywheel

Authors: Liping Yang, Curran Crawford, Jr. Ren, Zhengyi Ren

Abstract:

Considering the cost evaluation and the stress analysis, a fuzzy satisfactory optimization (FSO) method has been developed for a hybrid composite flywheel. To evaluate the cost, the cost coefficients of the flywheel components are obtained through calculating the weighted sum of the scores of the material manufacturability, the structure character, and the material price. To express the satisfactory degree of the energy, the cost, and the mass, the satisfactory functions are proposed by using the decline function and introducing a satisfactory coefficient. To imply the different significance of the objectives, the object weight coefficients are defined. Based on the stress analysis of composite material, the circumferential and radial stresses are considered into the optimization formulation. The simulations of the FSO method with different weight coefficients and storage energy density optimization (SEDO) method of a flywheel are contrasted. The analysis results show that the FSO method can satisfy different requirements of the designer and the FSO method with suitable weight coefficients can replace the SEDO method.

Keywords: Flywheel energy storage, fuzzy, optimization, stress analysis.

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