Search results for: Possibility Theory
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 2070

Search results for: Possibility Theory

1620 Mathematical Expression for Machining Performance

Authors: Md. Ashikur Rahman Khan, M. M. Rahman

Abstract:

In electrical discharge machining (EDM), a complete and clear theory has not yet been established. The developed theory (physical models) yields results far from reality due to the complexity of the physics. It is difficult to select proper parameter settings in order to achieve better EDM performance. However, modelling can solve this critical problem concerning the parameter settings. Therefore, the purpose of the present work is to develop mathematical model to predict performance characteristics of EDM on Ti-5Al-2.5Sn titanium alloy. Response surface method (RSM) and artificial neural network (ANN) are employed to develop the mathematical models. The developed models are verified through analysis of variance (ANOVA). The ANN models are trained, tested, and validated utilizing a set of data. It is found that the developed ANN and mathematical model can predict performance of EDM effectively. Thus, the model has found a precise tool that turns EDM process cost-effective and more efficient.

Keywords: Analysis of variance, artificial neural network, material removal rate, modelling, response surface method, surface finish.

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1619 New Hybrid Method to Model Extreme Rainfalls

Authors: Y. Laaroussi, Z. Guennoun, A. Amar

Abstract:

Modeling and forecasting dynamics of rainfall occurrences constitute one of the major topics, which have been largely treated by statisticians, hydrologists, climatologists and many other groups of scientists. In the same issue, we propose, in the present paper, a new hybrid method, which combines Extreme Values and fractal theories. We illustrate the use of our methodology for transformed Emberger Index series, constructed basing on data recorded in Oujda (Morocco). The index is treated at first by Peaks Over Threshold (POT) approach, to identify excess observations over an optimal threshold u. In the second step, we consider the resulting excess as a fractal object included in one dimensional space of time. We identify fractal dimension by the box counting. We discuss the prospect descriptions of rainfall data sets under Generalized Pareto Distribution, assured by Extreme Values Theory (EVT). We show that, despite of the appropriateness of return periods given by POT approach, the introduction of fractal dimension provides accurate interpretation results, which can ameliorate apprehension of rainfall occurrences.

Keywords: Extreme values theory, Fractals dimensions, Peaks Over Threshold, Rainfall occurrences.

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1618 Computer Proven Correctness of the Rabin Public-Key Scheme

Authors: Johannes Buchmann, Markus Kaiser

Abstract:

We decribe a formal specification and verification of the Rabin public-key scheme in the formal proof system Is-abelle/HOL. The idea is to use the two views of cryptographic verification: the computational approach relying on the vocabulary of probability theory and complexity theory and the formal approach based on ideas and techniques from logic and programming languages. The analysis presented uses a given database to prove formal properties of our implemented functions with computer support. Thema in task in designing a practical formalization of correctness as well as security properties is to cope with the complexity of cryptographic proving. We reduce this complexity by exploring a light-weight formalization that enables both appropriate formal definitions as well as eficient formal proofs. This yields the first computer-proved implementation of the Rabin public-key scheme in Isabelle/HOL. Consequently, we get reliable proofs with a minimal error rate augmenting the used database. This provides a formal basis for more computer proof constructions in this area.

Keywords: public-key encryption, Rabin public-key scheme, formalproof system, higher-order logic, formal verification.

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1617 Revisiting Distributed Protocols for Mobility at the Application Layer

Authors: N. Nouali, H. Drias, A. Doucet

Abstract:

During more than a decade, many proposals and standards have been designed to deal with the mobility issues; however, there are still some serious limitations in basing solutions on them. In this paper we discuss the possibility of handling mobility at the application layer. We do this while revisiting the conventional implementation of the Two Phase Commit (2PC) protocol which is a fundamental asset of transactional technology for ensuring the consistent commitment of distributed transactions. The solution is based on an execution framework providing an efficient extension that is aware of the mobility and preserves the 2PC principle.

Keywords: Application layer, distributed mobile protocols, mobility management, mobile transaction processing.

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1616 Analysis of Possibilities for Using Recycled Concrete Aggregate in Concrete Pavement

Authors: R. Pernicova, D. Dobias

Abstract:

The present article describes the limits of using recycled concrete aggregate (denoted as RCA) in the top layer of concrete roads. The main aim of this work is to investigate the possibility of reuse of recycled aggregates obtained by crushing the old concrete roads as a building material in the new top layers of concrete pavements. The paper is based on gathering the current knowledge about how to use recycled concrete aggregate, suitability, and modification of the properties and its standards. Regulations are detailed and described especially for European Union and for Czech Republic.

Keywords: Concrete, Czech Republic, pavements, recycled concrete aggregate, RCA, standards.

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1615 An Exploration of Chinese Foreign Direct Investment in Africa from Ethical and Cultural Perspectives

Authors: Yongsheng Guo, Mirza Muhammad Naseer, Xiaoxian Zhu

Abstract:

This study explores the perceptions and conducts of Chinese foreign direct investment (FDI) in Africa from ethical and cultural perspectives. It offers a better understanding of how ethical and cultural factors affect Chinese investment in Africa and how the investment projects performed in Africa from both Chinese investors and African stakeholders’ perceptions. It adopted a grounded theory approach and conducted 30 in-depth interviews with corporate managers. Grounded theory models are developed to link the ethical and cultural factors, actions, and consequences. Results reveal that some ethical concepts like the unity of humans and nature, benevolence, virtue and responsibility, and cultural traits including propriety, righteousness, sincerity, equilibrium, long-term orientation, and principles affect Chinese investors when making investments in Africa. Most Chinese investors harmonize with local managers, cooperate with each other, and are gentle and courteous to partners. They take stable and steady actions and invest in infrastructure and agriculture projects and adopt a virtue governance system in the organization. This study finds that consequently, Chinese investors and local partners take complementary advantages, make achievements sequentially, and therefore both sides can win. They recognize great potentials and make sustainable development in Africa to achieve the Great Together in the future. This study proposes a Chinese ethics and governance system including economic, social, and political perspectives and compares it with alternative systems. It makes implications to the world island theory and propose suggestions to solve the Clash of Civilizations problem.

Keywords: Foreign Direct Investment, Ethics, National Culture, China, Africa.

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1614 Project Selection Using Fuzzy Group Analytic Network Process

Authors: Hamed Rafiei, Masoud Rabbani

Abstract:

This paper deals with the project selection problem. Project selection problem is one of the problems arose firstly in the field of operations research following some production concepts from primary product mix problem. Afterward, introduction of managerial considerations into the project selection problem have emerged qualitative factors and criteria to be regarded as well as quantitative ones. To overcome both kinds of criteria, an analytic network process is developed in this paper enhanced with fuzzy sets theory to tackle the vagueness of experts- comments to evaluate the alternatives. Additionally, a modified version of Least-Square method through a non-linear programming model is augmented to the developed group decision making structure in order to elicit the final weights from comparison matrices. Finally, a case study is considered by which developed structure in this paper is validated. Moreover, a sensitivity analysis is performed to validate the response of the model with respect to the condition alteration.

Keywords: Analytic network process, Fuzzy sets theory, Nonlinear programming, Project selection.

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1613 A Method for Measurement and Evaluation of Drape of Textiles

Authors: L. Fridrichova, R. Knížek, V. Bajzík

Abstract:

Drape is one of the important visual characteristics of the fabric. This paper is introducing an innovative method of measurement and evaluation of the drape shape of the fabric. The measuring principle is based on the possibility of multiple vertical strain of the fabric. This method more accurately simulates the real behavior of the fabric in the process of draping. The method is fully automated, so the sample can be measured by using any number of cycles in any time horizon. Using the present method of measurement, we are able to describe the viscoelastic behavior of the fabric.

Keywords: Drape, drape shape, automated drape meter.

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1612 Analytical Model of Connection Establishment Duration Calculation in Wireless Networks

Authors: Y. Chaiko

Abstract:

It is important to provide possibility of so called “handover" for the mobile subscriber from GSM network to Wi-Fi network and back. To solve specified problem it is necessary to estimate connection time between base station and wireless access point. Difficulty to estimate this parameter is that it doesn-t described in specifications of the standard and, hence, no recommended value is given. In this paper, the analytical model is presented that allows the estimating connection time between base station and IEEE 802.11 access point.

Keywords: Access point, connection procedure, Wi-Fi network.

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1611 The Employee's Right to Observe the Religious Worship Day: Position of the Portuguese Constitutional Court

Authors: Susana Sousa Machado

Abstract:

The present article seeks to carry out along the lines of interpretation of the recent Portuguese Constitutional Court case law on the possibility of an employee to observe a worship day imposed by religious beliefs. In this approach to the question, considerations on the subject of the relationship between religious freedom and labour relations will inevitably arise. We intend to draw conclusions of practical application from the court decisions on the matter of freedom of religion.

Keywords: Freedom of Religion, Religion Beliefs, Workplace, Worship Day.

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1610 Refined Buckling Analysis of Rectangular Plates Under Uniaxial and Biaxial Compression

Authors: V. Piscopo

Abstract:

In the traditional buckling analysis of rectangular plates the classical thin plate theory is generally applied, so neglecting the plating shear deformation. It seems quite clear that this method is not totally appropriate for the analysis of thick plates, so that in the following the two variable refined plate theory proposed by Shimpi (2006), that permits to take into account the transverse shear effects, is applied for the buckling analysis of simply supported isotropic rectangular plates, compressed in one and two orthogonal directions. The relevant results are compared with the classical ones and, for rectangular plates under uniaxial compression, a new direct expression, similar to the classical Bryan-s formula, is proposed for the Euler buckling stress. As the buckling analysis is a widely diffused topic for a variety of structures, such as ship ones, some applications for plates uniformly compressed in one and two orthogonal directions are presented and the relevant theoretical results are compared with those ones obtained by a FEM analysis, carried out by ANSYS, to show the feasibility of the presented method.

Keywords: Buckling analysis, Thick plates, Biaxial stresses

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1609 Integrated Models of Reading Comprehension: Understanding to Impact Teaching: The Teacher’s Central Role

Authors: Sally A. Brown

Abstract:

Over the last 30 years, researchers have developed models or frameworks to provide a more structured understanding of the reading comprehension process. Cognitive information processing models and social cognitive theories both provide frameworks to inform reading comprehension instruction. The purpose of this paper is to (a) provide an overview of the historical development of reading comprehension theory, (b) review the literature framed by cognitive information processing, social cognitive, and integrated reading comprehension theories, and (c) demonstrate how these frameworks inform instruction. As integrated models of reading can guide the interpretation of various factors related to student learning, an integrated framework designed by the researcher will be presented. Results indicated that features of cognitive processing and social cognitivism theory—represented in the integrated framework—highlight the importance of the role of the teacher. This model can aide teachers in not only improving reading comprehension instruction but in identifying areas of challenge for students.

Keywords: Explicit instruction, integrated models of reading comprehension, reading comprehension, teacher’s role.

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1608 Thermal Stability Boundary of FG Panel under Aerodynamic Load

Authors: Sang-Lae Lee, Ji-Hwan Kim

Abstract:

In this study, it is investigated the stability boundary of Functionally Graded (FG) panel under the heats and supersonic airflows. Material properties are assumed to be temperature dependent, and a simple power law distribution is taken. First-order shear deformation theory (FSDT) of plate is applied to model the panel, and the von-Karman strain- displacement relations are adopted to consider the geometric nonlinearity due to large deformation. Further, the first-order piston theory is used to model the supersonic aerodynamic load acting on a panel and Rayleigh damping coefficient is used to present the structural damping. In order to find a critical value of the speed, linear flutter analysis of FG panels is performed. Numerical results are compared with the previous works, and present results for the temperature dependent material are discussed in detail for stability boundary of the panel with various volume fractions, and aerodynamic pressures.

Keywords: Functionally graded panels, Linear flutter analysis, Supersonic airflows, Temperature dependent material property.

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1607 Optimal Transmission Network Usage and Loss Allocation Using Matrices Methodology and Cooperative Game Theory

Authors: Baseem Khan, Ganga Agnihotri

Abstract:

Restructuring of Electricity supply industry introduced many issues such as transmission pricing, transmission loss allocation and congestion management. Many methodologies and algorithms were proposed for addressing these issues. In this paper a power flow tracing based method is proposed which involves Matrices methodology for the transmission usage and loss allocation for generators and demands. This method provides loss allocation in a direct way because all the computation is previously done for usage allocation. The proposed method is simple and easy to implement in a large power system. Further it is less computational because it requires matrix inversion only a single time. After usage and loss allocation cooperative game theory is applied to results for finding efficient economic signals. Nucleolus and Shapely value approach is used for optimal allocation of results. Results are shown for the IEEE 6 bus system and IEEE 14 bus system.

Keywords: Modified Kirchhoff Matrix, Power flow tracing, Transmission Pricing, Transmission Loss Allocation.

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1606 Transformative Leadership and Learning Management Systems Implementation: Leadership Practices in Instructional Design for Online Learning

Authors: Felix Brito

Abstract:

With the growth of online learning, several higher education institutions have attempted to incorporate technology in their curriculum. Successful technology implementation projects really on technology infrastructure and on the acceptance of education professionals towards innovation. This research study is aimed at illustrating the relevance of the human component in technology implementation projects in higher education by describing the Learning Management System implementation project executed by instructional designers working for a higher education institution in the southeast region of the United States. An analysis of the Transformative Leadership Theory, the Technology Acceptance Model, and the Diffusion of Innovation Process provide the support for a solid understanding of this issue and address recommendations for future technology implementation projects in higher education institutions.

Keywords: Learning management systems, transformative leadership theory, technology acceptance model, diffusion of innovation process, leadership, instructional design, online learning.

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1605 Square Printed Monopole Antenna for Wireless Applications

Authors: Rekha P. Labade, Shankar B. Deosarkar, Narayan Pisharoty

Abstract:

In this article design and optimization of square printed monopole antenna for wireless application is proposed. Theory of characteristics mode (TCM) is used for analysis of current modes on the antenna. TCM analysis shows that beveled ground plane improves the impedance bandwidth. The antenna operates over the frequency range from 1.860 GHz to 5 GHz for a VSWR ≤ 2, covering the GSM (1900-1990MHz), IMT-2000(1920-2170MHz), Bluetooth (2.400-2484 MHz) and lower band of ultrawideband (UWB). Stable radiation pattern shows minimal pulse distortion. The radiation pattern is omni-directional along the H-plane and figure of eight along the E-plane. Size of proposed antenna is 39 mm x 29 mm x 1.6mm. Antenna is simulated using CAD FEKO suite (6.2) using method of moment. A prototype antenna is fabricated using FR4 dielectric substrate with a dielectric constant of 4.4 and loss tangent of 0.02 to validate the simulated and measured results of the proposed antenna. Measured results are in good agreement with simulated results.

Keywords: Destructive Ground Surface (DGS), Method of moment, Theory of characteristics mode, UWB, VSWR.

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1604 Fuzzy Types Clustering for Microarray Data

Authors: Seo Young Kim, Tai Myong Choi

Abstract:

The main goal of microarray experiments is to quantify the expression of every object on a slide as precisely as possible, with a further goal of clustering the objects. Recently, many studies have discussed clustering issues involving similar patterns of gene expression. This paper presents an application of fuzzy-type methods for clustering DNA microarray data that can be applied to typical comparisons. Clustering and analyses were performed on microarray and simulated data. The results show that fuzzy-possibility c-means clustering substantially improves the findings obtained by others.

Keywords: Clustering, microarray data, Fuzzy-type clustering, Validation

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1603 Behavior of Current in a Semiconductor Nanostructure under Influence of Embedded Quantum Dots

Authors: H. Paredes Gutiérrez, S. T. Pérez-Merchancano

Abstract:

Motivated by recent experimental and theoretical developments, we investigate the influence of embedded quantum dot (EQD) of different geometries (lens, ring and pyramidal) in a double barrier heterostructure (DBH). We work with a general theory of quantum transport that accounts the tight-binding model for the spin dependent resonant tunneling in a semiconductor nanostructure, and Rashba spin orbital to study the spin orbit coupling. In this context, we use the second quantization theory for Rashba effect and the standard Green functions method. We calculate the current density as a function of the voltage without and in the presence of quantum dots. In the second case, we considered the size and shape of the quantum dot, and in the two cases, we worked considering the spin polarization affected by external electric fields. We found that the EQD generates significant changes in current when we consider different morphologies of EQD, as those described above. The first thing shown is that the current decreases significantly, such as the geometry of EQD is changed, prevailing the geometrical confinement. Likewise, we see that the current density decreases when the voltage is increased, showing that the quantum system studied here is more efficient when the morphology of the quantum dot changes.

Keywords: Quantum semiconductors, nanostructures, quantum dots, spin polarization.

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1602 Online Forums Hotspot Detection and Analysis Using Aging Theory

Authors: K. Nirmala Devi, V. Murali Bhaskaran

Abstract:

The exponential growth of social media arouses much attention on public opinion information. The online forums, blogs, micro blogs are proving to be extremely valuable resources and are having bulk volume of information. However, most of the social media data is unstructured and semi structured form. So that it is more difficult to decipher automatically. Therefore, it is very much essential to understand and analyze those data for making a right decision. The online forums hotspot detection is a promising research field in the web mining and it guides to motivate the user to take right decision in right time. The proposed system consist of a novel approach to detect a hotspot forum for any given time period. It uses aging theory to find the hot terms and E-K-means for detecting the hotspot forum. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed approach outperforms k-means for detecting the hotspot forums with the improved accuracy.

Keywords: Hotspot forums, Micro blog, Blog, Sentiment Analysis, Opinion Mining, Social media, Twitter, Web mining.

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1601 Spatial Analysis of Park and Ride Users’ Dynamic Accessibility to Train Station: A Case Study in Perth

Authors: Ting (Grace) Lin, Jianhong (Cecilia) Xia, Todd Robinson

Abstract:

Accessibility analysis, examining people’s ability to access facilities and destinations, is a fundamental assessment for transport planning, policy making, and social exclusion research. Dynamic accessibility which measures accessibility in real-time traffic environment has been an advanced accessibility indicator in transport research. It is also a useful indicator to help travelers to understand travel time daily variability, assists traffic engineers to monitor traffic congestions, and finally develop effective strategies in order to mitigate traffic congestions. This research involved real-time traffic information by collecting travel time data with 15-minute interval via the TomTom® API. A framework for measuring dynamic accessibility was then developed based on the gravity theory and accessibility dichotomy theory through space and time interpolation. Finally, the dynamic accessibility can be derived at any given time and location under dynamic accessibility spatial analysis framework.

Keywords: Dynamic accessibility, space-time continuum, transport research, TomTom® API.

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1600 Influence of a Pulsatile Electroosmotic Flow on the Dispersivity of a Non-Reactive Solute through a Microcapillary

Authors: Jaime Muñoz, José Arcos, Oscar Bautista Federico Méndez

Abstract:

The influence of a pulsatile electroosmotic flow (PEOF) at the rate of spread, or dispersivity, for a non-reactive solute released in a microcapillary with slippage at the boundary wall (modeled by the Navier-slip condition) is theoretically analyzed. Based on the flow velocity field developed under such conditions, the present study implements an analytical scheme of scaling known as the Theory of Homogenization, in order to obtain a mathematical expression for the dispersivity, valid at a large time scale where the initial transients have vanished and the solute spreads under the Taylor dispersion influence. Our results show the dispersivity is a function of a slip coefficient, the amplitude of the imposed electric field, the Debye length and the angular Reynolds number, highlighting the importance of the latter as an enhancement/detrimental factor on the dispersivity, which allows to promote the PEOF as a strong candidate for chemical species separation at lab-on-a-chip devices.

Keywords: Dispersivity, microcapillary, Navier-slip condition, pulsatile electroosmotic flow, Taylor dispersion, Theory of Homogenization.

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1599 Developmental Social Work: A Derailed Post-Apartheid Development Approach in South Africa

Authors: P. Mbecke

Abstract:

Developmental social welfare implemented through developmental social work is being applauded internationally as an approach that facilitates social development theory and practice. However, twenty-two years into democracy, there are no tangible evidences that the much-desired developmental social welfare approach has assisted the post-apartheid macroeconomic policy frameworks in addressing poverty and inequality, thus, the derailment of the post-apartheid development approach in South Africa. Based on the implementation research theory, and the literature review technique, this paper recognizes social work as a principal role-player in social development. It recommends the redesign and implementation of an effective developmental social welfare approach with specific strategies, programs, activities and sufficient resources aligned to and appropriate in delivering on the promises of the government’s macroeconomic policy frameworks. Such approach should be implemented by skilled and dedicated developmental social workers in order to achieve transformation in South Africa.

Keywords: Apartheid, developmental social welfare, developmental social work, inequality, poverty alleviation, social development, South Africa.

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1598 To Know the Way to the Unknown: A Semi-Experimental Study on the Implication of Skills and Knowledge for Creative Processes in Higher Education

Authors: Mikkel Snorre Wilms Boysen

Abstract:

From a theoretical perspective, expertise is generally considered a precondition for creativity. The assumption is that an individual needs to master the common and accepted rules and techniques within a certain knowledge-domain in order to create something new and valuable. However, real life cases, and a limited amount of empirical studies, demonstrate that this assumption may be overly simple. In this article, this question is explored through a number of semi-experimental case studies conducted within the fields of music, technology, and youth culture. The studies indicate that, in various ways, expertise plays an important part in creative processes. However, the case studies also indicate that expertise sometimes leads to an entrenched perspective, in the sense that knowledge and experience may work as a path into the well-known rather than into the unknown. In this article, these issues are explored with reference to different theoretical approaches to creativity and learning, including actor-network theory, the theory of blind variation and selective retention, and Csikszentmihalyi’s system model. Finally, some educational aspects and implications of this are discussed.

Keywords: Creativity, education, expertise, technology.

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1597 Kant’s Conception of Human Dignity and the Importance of Singularity within Commonality

Authors: Francisco Lobo

Abstract:

Kant’s household theory of human dignity as a common feature of all rational beings is the starting point of any intellectual endeavor to unravel the implications of this normative notion. Yet, it is incomplete, as it neglects considering the importance of the singularity or uniqueness of the individual. In a first, deconstructive stage, this paper describes the Kantian account of human dignity as one among many conceptions of human dignity. It reads carefully into the original wording used by Kant in German and its English translations, as well as the works of modern commentators, to identify its shortcomings. In a second, constructive stage, it then draws on the theories of Aristotle, Alexis de Tocqueville, John Stuart Mill, and Hannah Arendt to try and enhance the Kantian conception, in the sense that these authors give major importance to the singularity of the individual. The Kantian theory can be perfected by including elements from the works of these authors, while at the same time being mindful of the dangers entailed in focusing too much on singularity. The conclusion of this paper is that the Kantian conception of human dignity can be enhanced if it acknowledges that not only morality has dignity, but also the irreplaceable human individual to the extent that she is a narrative, original creature with the potential to act morally.

Keywords: Commonality, dignity, Kant, singularity.

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1596 Linear Elasticity Problems Solved by Using the Fictitious Domain Method and Total - FETI Domain Decomposition

Authors: Lukas Mocek, Alexandros Markopoulos

Abstract:

The main goal of this paper is to show a possibility, how to solve numerically elliptic boundary value problems arising in 2D linear elasticity by using the fictitious domain method (FDM) and the Total-FETI domain decomposition method. We briefly mention the theoretical background of these methods and demonstrate their performance on a benchmark.

Keywords: Linear elasticity, fictitious domain method, Total-FETI, domain decomposition, saddle-point system.

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1595 Another Formal Proposal For Stealth

Authors: Adrien Derock, Pascal Veron

Abstract:

Taking into account the link between the efficiency of a detector and the complexity of a stealth mechanism, we propose in this paper a new formalism for stealth using graph theory.

Keywords: Detection, eradication, graph, rootkit, stealth.

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1594 Demonstration of a Low-Cost Monocycle Pulse for UWB Radio Transceiver

Authors: Richard Thai-Singama, Jean-Pierre Belin, Frédéric Du Burck, Marc Piette

Abstract:

This paper presents a simple and original method for the generation of short monocycle pulses based on the transient response of a passive band-pass filter. The recorded sub-nanosecond pulses show a good symmetry and a small ringing (13 % of the peak amplitude). Their spectral density covers the range 3.1 GHz to 10.6 GHz. The possibility to adapt the pulse spectral density to the indoor FCC frequency mask is demonstrated with a prototype working at a reduced frequency (FCC/1000). A detection technique is proposed.

Keywords: Impulse, Monocycle, Transient, UWB.

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1593 Model-free Prediction based on Tracking Theory and Newton Form of Polynomial

Authors: Guoyuan Qi , Yskandar Hamam, Barend Jacobus van Wyk, Shengzhi Du

Abstract:

The majority of existing predictors for time series are model-dependent and therefore require some prior knowledge for the identification of complex systems, usually involving system identification, extensive training, or online adaptation in the case of time-varying systems. Additionally, since a time series is usually generated by complex processes such as the stock market or other chaotic systems, identification, modeling or the online updating of parameters can be problematic. In this paper a model-free predictor (MFP) for a time series produced by an unknown nonlinear system or process is derived using tracking theory. An identical derivation of the MFP using the property of the Newton form of the interpolating polynomial is also presented. The MFP is able to accurately predict future values of a time series, is stable, has few tuning parameters and is desirable for engineering applications due to its simplicity, fast prediction speed and extremely low computational load. The performance of the proposed MFP is demonstrated using the prediction of the Dow Jones Industrial Average stock index.

Keywords: Forecast, model-free predictor, prediction, time series

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1592 Vibration of Functionally Graded Cylindrical Shells Under Effect Clamped-Free Boundary Conditions Using Hamilton's Principle

Authors: M.R. Isvandzibaei, M.R. Alinaghizadeh, A.H. Zaman

Abstract:

In the present work, study of the vibration of thin cylindrical shells made of a functionally gradient material (FGM) composed of stainless steel and nickel is presented. Material properties are graded in the thickness direction of the shell according to volume fraction power law distribution. The objective is to study the natural frequencies, the influence of constituent volume fractions and the effects of boundary conditions on the natural frequencies of the FG cylindrical shell. The study is carried out using third order shear deformation shell theory. The analysis is carried out using Hamilton's principle. The governing equations of motion of FG cylindrical shells are derived based on shear deformation theory. Results are presented on the frequency characteristics, influence of constituent volume fractions and the effects of clamped-free boundary conditions

Keywords: Vibration, FGM, cylindrical shell, Hamilton's principle, clamped supported.

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1591 Vibration of Functionally Graded Cylindrical Shells under Effects Free-free and Clamed-clamped Boundary Conditions

Authors: M. R.Isvandzibaei, A.Jahani

Abstract:

In the present work, study of the vibration of thin cylindrical shells made of a functionally gradient material (FGM) composed of stainless steel and nickel is presented. Material properties are graded in the thickness direction of the shell according to volume fraction power law distribution. The objective is to study the natural frequencies, the influence of constituent volume fractions and the effects of boundary conditions on the natural frequencies of the FG cylindrical shell. The study is carried out using third order shear deformation shell theory. The analysis is carried out using Hamilton's principle. The governing equations of motion of FG cylindrical shells are derived based on shear deformation theory. Results are presented on the frequency characteristics, influence of constituent volume fractions and the effects of free-free and clamped-clamped boundary conditions.

Keywords: Vibration, FGM, cylindrical shell, Hamilton's principle.

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