Search results for: Markov decision processes (MDPs)
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 3004

Search results for: Markov decision processes (MDPs)

2794 A Comparison of Single of Decision Tree, Decision Tree Forest and Group Method of Data Handling to Evaluate the Surface Roughness in Machining Process

Authors: S. Ghorbani, N. I. Polushin

Abstract:

The machinability of workpieces (AISI 1045 Steel, AA2024 aluminum alloy, A48-class30 gray cast iron) in turning operation has been carried out using different types of cutting tool (conventional, cutting tool with holes in toolholder and cutting tool filled up with composite material) under dry conditions on a turning machine at different stages of spindle speed (630-1000 rpm), feed rate (0.05-0.075 mm/rev), depth of cut (0.05-0.15 mm) and tool overhang (41-65 mm). Experimentation was performed as per Taguchi’s orthogonal array. To evaluate the relative importance of factors affecting surface roughness the single decision tree (SDT), Decision tree forest (DTF) and Group method of data handling (GMDH) were applied.

Keywords: Decision Tree Forest, GMDH, surface roughness, taguchi method, turning process.

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2793 Decision Support System for Farm Management

Authors: Manpreet Singh, Parvinder Singh, Sumitter Bir Singh

Abstract:

The emergence of information technology has resulted in an ever-increasing demand to use computers for the efficient management and dissemination of information. Keeping in view the strong need of farmers to collect important and updated information for interactive, flexible and quick decision-making, a model of Decision Support System for Farm Management is developed. The paper discusses the use of Internet technology for the farmers to take decisions. A model is developed for the farmers to access online interactive and flexible information for their farm management. The workflow of the model is presented highlighting the information transfer between different modules.

Keywords: Decision Support System, dissemination.

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2792 Decision Analysis Module for Excel

Authors: Radomir Perzina, Jaroslav Ramik

Abstract:

The Analytic Hierarchy Process is frequently used approach for solving decision making problems. There exists wide range of software programs utilizing that approach. Their main disadvantage is that they are relatively expensive and missing intermediate calculations. This work introduces a Microsoft Excel add-in called DAME – Decision Analysis Module for Excel. Comparing to other computer programs DAME is free, can work with scenarios or multiple decision makers and displays intermediate calculations. Users can structure their decision models into three levels – scenarios/users, criteria and variants. Items on all levels can be evaluated either by weights or pair-wise comparisons. There are provided three different methods for the evaluation of the weights of criteria, the variants as well as the scenarios – Saaty’s Method, Geometric Mean Method and Fuller’s Triangle Method. Multiplicative and additive syntheses are supported. The proposed software package is demonstrated on couple of illustrating examples of real life decision problems.

Keywords: Analytic hierarchy process, multi-criteria decision making, pair-wise comparisons, Microsoft Excel, Scenarios.

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2791 Advances in Artificial Intelligence Using Speech Recognition

Authors: Khaled M. Alhawiti

Abstract:

This research study aims to present a retrospective study about speech recognition systems and artificial intelligence. Speech recognition has become one of the widely used technologies, as it offers great opportunity to interact and communicate with automated machines. Precisely, it can be affirmed that speech recognition facilitates its users and helps them to perform their daily routine tasks, in a more convenient and effective manner. This research intends to present the illustration of recent technological advancements, which are associated with artificial intelligence. Recent researches have revealed the fact that speech recognition is found to be the utmost issue, which affects the decoding of speech. In order to overcome these issues, different statistical models were developed by the researchers. Some of the most prominent statistical models include acoustic model (AM), language model (LM), lexicon model, and hidden Markov models (HMM). The research will help in understanding all of these statistical models of speech recognition. Researchers have also formulated different decoding methods, which are being utilized for realistic decoding tasks and constrained artificial languages. These decoding methods include pattern recognition, acoustic phonetic, and artificial intelligence. It has been recognized that artificial intelligence is the most efficient and reliable methods, which are being used in speech recognition.

Keywords: Speech recognition, acoustic phonetic, artificial intelligence, Hidden Markov Models (HMM), statistical models of speech recognition, human machine performance.

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2790 Business Intelligence and Strategic Decision Simulation

Authors: S. Sabbour, H. Lasi, P. von Tessin

Abstract:

The purpose of this study is two-fold. First, it attempts to explore potential opportunities for utilizing visual interactive simulations along with Business Intelligence (BI) as a decision support tool for strategic decision making. Second, it tries to figure out the essential top-level managerial requirements that would transform strategic decision simulation into an integral component of BI systems. The domain of particular interest was the application of visual interactive simulation capabilities in the field of supply chains. A qualitative exploratory method was applied, through the use of interviews with two leading companies. The collected data was then analysed to demonstrate the difference between the literature perspective and the practical managerial perspective on the issue. The results of the study suggest that although the use of simulation particularly in managing supply chains is very evident in literature, yet, in practice such utilization is still in its infancy, particularly regarding strategic decisions. Based on the insights a prototype of a simulation based BI-solution-extension was developed and evaluated.

Keywords: Business Intelligence, decision support, strategic decisions, simulation, SCM.

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2789 Regional Aircraft Selection Using Preference Analysis for Reference Ideal Solution (PARIS)

Authors: C. Ardil

Abstract:

The paper presents a multiple criteria decision making analysis process to determine the most suitable regional aircraft type according to a set of evaluation criteria. The main purpose of this study is to use different decision making methods to determine the most suitable regional aircraft for aviation operators. In this context, the nine regional aircraft types were analyzed using multiple criteria decision making analysis methods. Preference analysis for reference ideal solution (PARIS) was used in regional aircraft selection process. The findings of the proposed model show that the ranking results of the multiple criteria decision making models are consistent with each other, and the proposed method is efficient, and the results are valid. Finally, the Embraer E195-E2 model regional aircraft is chosen as the most suitable aircraft type.

Keywords: aircraft, regional aircraft selection, multiple criteria decision making, multiple criteria decision making analysis, mean weight, entropy weight, MCDMA, PARIS

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2788 The Aspect of the Human Bias in Decision Making within Quality Management Systems & LEAN Theory

Authors: Adriana Ávila Zúñiga Nordfjeld

Abstract:

This paper provides a literature review to document the state of the art with respect to handling “human bias” in decision making within the established quality management systems (QMS) and LEAN theory, in the context of shipbuilding. Previous research shows that in shipbuilding there is a huge deviation from the planned man-hours under the project management to the actual man-hours used because of errors in planning and reworks caused by human bias in the information flows, among others. This reduces the efficiency, and increases operational costs. Thus, the research question is how QMS and LEAN handle biases. The findings show the gap in studying the integration of methods to handle human bias in decision making into QMS and lean, not only within shipbuilding, but in general. Theoretical and practical implications are discussed for researchers and practitioners in the areas of decision making, QMS and LEAN, and future research is suggested.

Keywords: Human bias, decision making, LEAN Shipbuilding, quality management systems.

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2787 Evaluation Pattern of Cognitive Processes in Language in Written Comprehension

Authors: Agnès Garletti

Abstract:

Our research aims at helping the tutor on line to evaluate the student-s cognitive processes. The student is a learner in French as a Second Language who studies an on-line socio-cognitive scenario in written communication. In our method, these cognitive processes are defined. For that, the language abilities and learning tasks are associated to cognitive operation. Moreover, the found cognitive processes are named with specific terms. The result was to create an instrumental pattern to question the learner about the cognitive processes used to build an item of written comprehension. Our research follows the principles of the third historical generation of studies on the cognitive activity of the text comprehension. The strength of our instrumental pattern stands in the precision and the logical articulation of the questions to the learner. However, the learner-s answers can still be subjective but the precision of the instrument restricts it.

Keywords: Cognitive processes, Evaluation pattern, French as asecond language, Socio-cognitive scenario, Written comprehension.

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2786 Survey on Strategic Games and Decision Making

Authors: S. Madhavi, K. Baala Srinivas, G. Bharath, R. K. Indhuja, M. Kowser Chandini

Abstract:

Game theory is the study of how people interact and make decisions to handle competitive situations. It has mainly been developed to study decision making in complex situations. Humans routinely alter their behaviour in response to changes in their social and physical environment. As a consequence, the outcomes of decisions that depend on the behaviour of multiple decision makers are difficult to predict and require highly adaptive decision-making strategies. In addition to the decision makers may have preferences regarding consequences to other individuals and choose their actions to improve or reduce the well-being of others. Nash equilibrium is a fundamental concept in the theory of games and the most widely used method of predicting the outcome of a strategic interaction in the social sciences. A Nash Equilibrium exists when there is no unilateral profitable deviation from any of the players involved. On the other hand, no player in the game would take a different action as long as every other player remains the same.

Keywords: Game Theory, Nash Equilibrium, Rules of Dominance.

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2785 A Rough-set Based Approach to Design an Expert System for Personnel Selection

Authors: Ehsan Akhlaghi

Abstract:

Effective employee selection is a critical component of a successful organization. Many important criteria for personnel selection such as decision-making ability, adaptability, ambition, and self-organization are naturally vague and imprecise to evaluate. The rough sets theory (RST) as a new mathematical approach to vagueness and uncertainty is a very well suited tool to deal with qualitative data and various decision problems. This paper provides conceptual, descriptive, and simulation results, concentrating chiefly on human resources and personnel selection factors. The current research derives certain decision rules which are able to facilitate personnel selection and identifies several significant features based on an empirical study conducted in an IT company in Iran.

Keywords: Decision Making, Expert System, PersonnelSelection, Rough Set Theory

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2784 Modeling Uncertainty in Multiple Criteria Decision Making Using the Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution for the Selection of Stealth Combat Aircraft

Authors: C. Ardil

Abstract:

Uncertainty set theory is a generalization of fuzzy set theory and intuitionistic fuzzy set theory. It serves as an effective tool for dealing with inconsistent, imprecise, and vague information. The technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS) method is a multiple-attribute method used to identify solutions from a finite set of alternatives. It simultaneously minimizes the distance from an ideal point and maximizes the distance from a nadir point. In this paper, an extension of the TOPSIS method for multiple attribute group decision-making (MAGDM) based on uncertainty sets is presented. In uncertainty decision analysis, decision-makers express information about attribute values and weights using uncertainty numbers to select the best stealth combat aircraft.

Keywords: Uncertainty set, stealth combat aircraft selection multiple criteria decision-making analysis, MCDM, uncertainty decision analysis, TOPSIS

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2783 Mining Educational Data to Support Students’ Major Selection

Authors: Kunyanuth Kularbphettong, Cholticha Tongsiri

Abstract:

This paper aims to create the model for student in choosing an emphasized track of student majoring in computer science at Suan Sunandha Rajabhat University. The objective of this research is to develop the suggested system using data mining technique to analyze knowledge and conduct decision rules. Such relationships can be used to demonstrate the reasonableness of student choosing a track as well as to support his/her decision and the system is verified by experts in the field. The sampling is from student of computer science based on the system and the questionnaire to see the satisfaction. The system result is found to be satisfactory by both experts and student as well. 

Keywords: Data mining technique, the decision support system, knowledge and decision rules.

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2782 A Simulation Model for Bid Price Decision Making

Authors: R. Sammoura

Abstract:

In Lebanon, public construction projects are awarded to the contractor submitting the lowest bid price based on a competitive bidding process. The contractor has to make a strategic decision in choosing the appropriate bid price that will offer a satisfactory profit with a greater probability to win. A simulation model for bid price decision making based on the lowest bid price evaluation is developed. The model, built using Crystal Ball decisionengineering software, considers two main factors affecting the bidding process: the number of qualified bidders and the size of the project. The validity of the model is tested on twelve separate projects. The study also shows how to use the model to conduct risk analysis and help any specific contractor to decide on his bid price with associated certainty level in a scientific method.

Keywords: Bid price, Competition, Decision making, Simulation.

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2781 Speaker Independent Quranic Recognizer Basedon Maximum Likelihood Linear Regression

Authors: Ehab Mourtaga, Ahmad Sharieh, Mousa Abdallah

Abstract:

An automatic speech recognition system for the formal Arabic language is needed. The Quran is the most formal spoken book in Arabic, it is spoken all over the world. In this research, an automatic speech recognizer for Quranic based speakerindependent was developed and tested. The system was developed based on the tri-phone Hidden Markov Model and Maximum Likelihood Linear Regression (MLLR). The MLLR computes a set of transformations which reduces the mismatch between an initial model set and the adaptation data. It uses the regression class tree, as well as, estimates a set of linear transformations for the mean and variance parameters of a Gaussian mixture HMM system. The 30th Chapter of the Quran, with five of the most famous readers of the Quran, was used for the training and testing of the data. The chapter includes about 2000 distinct words. The advantages of using the Quranic verses as the database in this developed recognizer are the uniqueness of the words and the high level of orderliness between verses. The level of accuracy from the tested data ranged 68 to 85%.

Keywords: Hidden Markov Model (HMM), MaximumLikelihood Linear Regression (MLLR), Quran, Regression ClassTree, Speech Recognition, Speaker-independent.

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2780 e Collaborative Decisions – a DSS for Academic Environment

Authors: C. Oprean, C. V. Kifor, S. C. Negulescu, C. Candea, L. Oprean, C. Oprean, S. Kifor

Abstract:

This paper presents an innovative approach within the area of Group Decision Support System (GDSS) by using tools based on intelligent agents. It introduces iGDSS, a software platform for decision support and collaboration and an application of this platform - eCollaborative Decisions - for academic environment, all these developed within a framework of a research project.

Keywords: Group Decision Support System, Managerial Academic Decisions, Computer Interaction.

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2779 Futures Trading: Design of a Strategy

Authors: Jan Zeman

Abstract:

The paper describes the futures trading and aims to design the speculators trading strategy. The problem is formulated as the decision making task and such as is solved. The solution of the task leads to complex mathematical problems and the approximations of the decision making is demanded. Two kind of approximation are used in the paper: Monte Carlo for the multi-step prediction and iteration spread in time for the optimization. The solution is applied to the real-market data and the results of the off-line experiments are presented.

Keywords: futures trading, decision making

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2778 Ensemble Learning with Decision Tree for Remote Sensing Classification

Authors: Mahesh Pal

Abstract:

In recent years, a number of works proposing the combination of multiple classifiers to produce a single classification have been reported in remote sensing literature. The resulting classifier, referred to as an ensemble classifier, is generally found to be more accurate than any of the individual classifiers making up the ensemble. As accuracy is the primary concern, much of the research in the field of land cover classification is focused on improving classification accuracy. This study compares the performance of four ensemble approaches (boosting, bagging, DECORATE and random subspace) with a univariate decision tree as base classifier. Two training datasets, one without ant noise and other with 20 percent noise was used to judge the performance of different ensemble approaches. Results with noise free data set suggest an improvement of about 4% in classification accuracy with all ensemble approaches in comparison to the results provided by univariate decision tree classifier. Highest classification accuracy of 87.43% was achieved by boosted decision tree. A comparison of results with noisy data set suggests that bagging, DECORATE and random subspace approaches works well with this data whereas the performance of boosted decision tree degrades and a classification accuracy of 79.7% is achieved which is even lower than that is achieved (i.e. 80.02%) by using unboosted decision tree classifier.

Keywords: Ensemble learning, decision tree, remote sensingclassification.

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2777 Decision Maturity Framework: Introducing Maturity In Heuristic Search

Authors: Ayed Salman, Fawaz Al-Anzi, Aseel Al-Minayes

Abstract:

Heuristics-based search methodologies normally work on searching a problem space of possible solutions toward finding a “satisfactory" solution based on “hints" estimated from the problem-specific knowledge. Research communities use different types of methodologies. Unfortunately, most of the times, these hints are immature and can lead toward hindering these methodologies by a premature convergence. This is due to a decrease of diversity in search space that leads to a total implosion and ultimately fitness stagnation of the population. In this paper, a novel Decision Maturity framework (DMF) is introduced as a solution to this problem. The framework simply improves the decision on the direction of the search by materializing hints enough before using them. Ideas from this framework are injected into the particle swarm optimization methodology. Results were obtained under both static and dynamic environment. The results show that decision maturity prevents premature converges to a high degree.

Keywords: Heuristic Search, hints, Particle Swarm Optimization, Decision Maturity Framework.

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2776 Qualitative Possibilistic Influence Diagrams

Authors: Wided GuezGuez, Nahla Ben Amor, Khaled Mellouli

Abstract:

Influence diagrams (IDs) are one of the most commonly used graphical decision models for reasoning under uncertainty. The quantification of IDs which consists in defining conditional probabilities for chance nodes and utility functions for value nodes is not always obvious. In fact, decision makers cannot always provide exact numerical values and in some cases, it is more easier for them to specify qualitative preference orders. This work proposes an adaptation of standard IDs to the qualitative framework based on possibility theory.

Keywords: decision making, influence diagrams, qualitative utility, possibility theory.

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2775 Study on the Influence of Physical Effort on the Mental Processes of Preteen Students

Authors: Constantin Pehoiu, Cristian Savu, Silviu Badea, Cristian Borida

Abstract:

The physiological effects of physical exercise on human body are relatively well known in literature, which describes in detail the changes that occur in the cardiovascular system, the respiratory one, in bones and other systems, both during exercise and after its delivery. However, the effects of exercise on mental processes are less treated. From the literature reviews discussed in this study, it can be detached the idea that we can not exactly say that physical exercise has beneficial effects on mental processes, but neither that it would have potentially negative effects. This uncertainty, reflected in the inability to indicate precise and unequivocal meaning, favorable-unfavorable physical effort in acting on mental processes, is a prime reason to undertake a study of the phenomenon influence effort administered physical education classes on the dynamics of mental processes like attention and memory.

Keywords: management, exercise, mental process, lesson.

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2774 Decision Tree for Competing Risks Survival Probability in Breast Cancer Study

Authors: N. A. Ibrahim, A. Kudus, I. Daud, M. R. Abu Bakar

Abstract:

Competing risks survival data that comprises of more than one type of event has been used in many applications, and one of these is in clinical study (e.g. in breast cancer study). The decision tree method can be extended to competing risks survival data by modifying the split function so as to accommodate two or more risks which might be dependent on each other. Recently, researchers have constructed some decision trees for recurrent survival time data using frailty and marginal modelling. We further extended the method for the case of competing risks. In this paper, we developed the decision tree method for competing risks survival time data based on proportional hazards for subdistribution of competing risks. In particular, we grow a tree by using deviance statistic. The application of breast cancer data is presented. Finally, to investigate the performance of the proposed method, simulation studies on identification of true group of observations were executed.

Keywords: Competing risks, Decision tree, Simulation, Subdistribution Proportional Hazard.

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2773 Analysis of Linguistic Disfluencies in Bilingual Children’s Discourse

Authors: Sheena Christabel Pravin, M. Palanivelan

Abstract:

Speech disfluencies are common in spontaneous speech. The primary purpose of this study was to distinguish linguistic disfluencies from stuttering disfluencies in bilingual Tamil–English (TE) speaking children. The secondary purpose was to determine whether their disfluencies are mediated by native language dominance and/or on an early onset of developmental stuttering at childhood. A detailed study was carried out to identify the prosodic and acoustic features that uniquely represent the disfluent regions of speech. This paper focuses on statistical modeling of repetitions, prolongations, pauses and interjections in the speech corpus encompassing bilingual spontaneous utterances from school going children – English and Tamil. Two classifiers including Hidden Markov Models (HMM) and the Multilayer Perceptron (MLP), which is a class of feed-forward artificial neural network, were compared in the classification of disfluencies. The results of the classifiers document the patterns of disfluency in spontaneous speech samples of school-aged children to distinguish between Children Who Stutter (CWS) and Children with Language Impairment CLI). The ability of the models in classifying the disfluencies was measured in terms of F-measure, Recall, and Precision.

Keywords: Bilingual, children who stutter, children with language impairment, Hidden Markov Models, multi-layer perceptron, linguistic disfluencies, stuttering disfluencies.

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2772 Event Information Extraction System (EIEE): FSM vs HMM

Authors: Shaukat Wasi, Zubair A. Shaikh, Sajid Qasmi, Hussain Sachwani, Rehman Lalani, Aamir Chagani

Abstract:

Automatic Extraction of Event information from social text stream (emails, social network sites, blogs etc) is a vital requirement for many applications like Event Planning and Management systems and security applications. The key information components needed from Event related text are Event title, location, participants, date and time. Emails have very unique distinctions over other social text streams from the perspective of layout and format and conversation style and are the most commonly used communication channel for broadcasting and planning events. Therefore we have chosen emails as our dataset. In our work, we have employed two statistical NLP methods, named as Finite State Machines (FSM) and Hidden Markov Model (HMM) for the extraction of event related contextual information. An application has been developed providing a comparison among the two methods over the event extraction task. It comprises of two modules, one for each method, and works for both bulk as well as direct user input. The results are evaluated using Precision, Recall and F-Score. Experiments show that both methods produce high performance and accuracy, however HMM was good enough over Title extraction and FSM proved to be better for Venue, Date, and time.

Keywords: Emails, Event Extraction, Event Detection, Finite state machines, Hidden Markov Model.

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2771 A New Approach to Workforce Planning

Authors: M. Othman, N. Bhuiyan, G. J. Gouw

Abstract:

In today-s global and competitive market, manufacturing companies are working hard towards improving their production system performance. Most companies develop production systems that can help in cost reduction. Manufacturing systems consist of different elements including production methods, machines, processes, control and information systems. Human issues are an important part of manufacturing systems, yet most companies do not pay sufficient attention to them. In this paper, a workforce planning (WP) model is presented. A non-linear programming model is developed in order to minimize the hiring, firing, training and overtime costs. The purpose is to determine the number of workers for each worker type, the number of workers trained, and the number of overtime hours. Moreover, a decision support system (DSS) based on the proposed model is introduced using the Excel-Lingo software interfacing feature. This model will help to improve the interaction between the workers, managers and the technical systems in manufacturing.

Keywords: Decision Support System, Human Factors, Manufacturing System, Workforce Planning.

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2770 Review of Models of Consumer Behaviour and Influence of Emotions in the Decision Making

Authors: Mikel Alonso López

Abstract:

In order to begin the process of studying the task of making consumer decisions, the main decision models must be analyzed. The objective of this task is to see if there is a presence of emotions in those models, and analyze how authors that have created them consider their impact in consumer choices. In this paper, the most important models of consumer behavior are analysed. This review is useful to consider an unproblematic background knowledge in the literature. The order that has been established for this study is chronological.

Keywords: Consumer behaviour, emotions, decision making, consumer psychology.

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2769 Evolution of Quality Function Deployment (QFD) via Fuzzy Concepts and Neural Networks

Authors: M. Haghighi, M. Zowghi, B. Zohouri

Abstract:

Quality Function Deployment (QFD) is an expounded, multi-step planning method for delivering commodity, services, and processes to customers, both external and internal to an organization. It is a way to convert between the diverse customer languages expressing demands (Voice of the Customer), and the organization-s languages expressing results that sate those demands. The policy is to establish one or more matrices that inter-relate producer and consumer reciprocal expectations. Due to its visual presence is called the “House of Quality" (HOQ). In this paper, we assumed HOQ in multi attribute decision making (MADM) pattern and through a proposed MADM method, rank technical specifications. Thereafter compute satisfaction degree of customer requirements and for it, we apply vagueness and uncertainty conditions in decision making by fuzzy set theory. This approach would propound supervised neural network (perceptron) for MADM problem solving.

Keywords: MADM, fuzzy set, QFD, supervised neural network (perceptron).

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2768 Clinical Benefits of an Embedded Decision Support System in Anticoagulant Control

Authors: Tony Austin, Shanghua Sun, Nathan Lea, Steve Iliffe, Dipak Kalra, David Ingram, David Patterson

Abstract:

Computer-based decision support (CDSS) systems can deliver real patient care and increase chances of long-term survival in areas of chronic disease management prone to poor control. One such CDSS, for the management of warfarin, is described in this paper and the outcomes shown. Data is derived from the running system and show a performance consistently around 20% better than the applicable guidelines.

Keywords: "Decision Support", "Anticoagulant Control"

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2767 A Neuro-Automata Decision Support System for the Control of Late Blight in Tomato Crops

Authors: Gizelle K. Vianna, Gustavo S. Oliveira, Gabriel V. Cunha

Abstract:

The use of decision support systems in agriculture may help monitoring large fields of crops by automatically detecting the symptoms of foliage diseases. In our work, we designed and implemented a decision support system for small tomatoes producers. This work investigates ways to recognize the late blight disease from the analysis of digital images of tomatoes, using a pair of multilayer perceptron neural networks. The networks outputs are used to generate repainted tomato images in which the injuries on the plant are highlighted, and to calculate the damage level of each plant. Those levels are then used to construct a situation map of a farm where a cellular automata simulates the outbreak evolution over the fields. The simulator can test different pesticides actions, helping in the decision on when to start the spraying and in the analysis of losses and gains of each choice of action.

Keywords: Artificial neural networks, cellular automata, decision support system, pattern recognition.

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2766 Jeffrey's Prior for Unknown Sinusoidal Noise Model via Cramer-Rao Lower Bound

Authors: Samuel A. Phillips, Emmanuel A. Ayanlowo, Rasaki O. Olanrewaju, Olayode Fatoki

Abstract:

This paper employs the Jeffrey's prior technique in the process of estimating the periodograms and frequency of sinusoidal model for unknown noisy time variants or oscillating events (data) in a Bayesian setting. The non-informative Jeffrey's prior was adopted for the posterior trigonometric function of the sinusoidal model such that Cramer-Rao Lower Bound (CRLB) inference was used in carving-out the minimum variance needed to curb the invariance structure effect for unknown noisy time observational and repeated circular patterns. An average monthly oscillating temperature series measured in degree Celsius (0C) from 1901 to 2014 was subjected to the posterior solution of the unknown noisy events of the sinusoidal model via Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). It was not only deduced that two minutes period is required before completing a cycle of changing temperature from one particular degree Celsius to another but also that the sinusoidal model via the CRLB-Jeffrey's prior for unknown noisy events produced a miniature posterior Maximum A Posteriori (MAP) compare to a known noisy events.

Keywords: Cramer-Rao Lower Bound (CRLB), Jeffrey's prior, Sinusoidal, Maximum A Posteriori (MAP), Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), Periodograms.

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2765 An Archetype to Sustain Knowledge Management Systems through Intranet

Authors: B. T. Sayed, Nafaâ Jabeur, M. Aref

Abstract:

Creation and maintenance of knowledge management systems has been recognized as an important research area. Consecutively lack of accurate results from knowledge management systems limits the organization to apply their knowledge management processes. This leads to a failure in getting the right information to the right people at the right time thus followed by a deficiency in decision making processes. An Intranet offers a powerful tool for communication and collaboration, presenting data and information, and the means that creates and shares knowledge, all in one easily accessible place. This paper proposes an archetype describing how a knowledge management system, with the support of intranet capabilities, could very much increase the accuracy of capturing, storing and retrieving knowledge based processes thereby increasing the efficiency of the system. This system will expect a critical mass of usage, by the users, for intranet to function as knowledge management systems. This prototype would lead to a design of an application that would impose creation and maintenance of an effective knowledge management system through intranet. The aim of this paper is to introduce an effective system to handle capture, store and distribute knowledge management in a form that may not lead to any failure which exists in most of the systems. The methodology used in the system would require all the employees, in the organization, to contribute the maximum to deliver the system to a successful arena. The system is still in its initial mode and thereby the authors are under the process to practically implement the ideas, as mentioned in the system, to produce satisfactory results.

Keywords: Knowledge Management Systems, Intranet, Methodology.

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