Search results for: Marginal likelihood evidence.

Authors: Norwati Mustapha, Manijeh Jalali, Abolghasem Bozorgniya, Mehrdad Jalali

Abstract:

Web usage mining algorithms have been widely utilized for modeling user web navigation behavior. In this study we advance a model for mining of user-s navigation pattern. The model makes user model based on expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm.An EM algorithm is used in statistics for finding maximum likelihood estimates of parameters in probabilistic models, where the model depends on unobserved latent variables. The experimental results represent that by decreasing the number of clusters, the log likelihood converges toward lower values and probability of the largest cluster will be decreased while the number of the clusters increases in each treatment.

Keywords: Web Usage Mining, Expectation maximization, navigation pattern mining.

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Authors: Ahmed Kadry, Gwyn Dodd

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There has been a growing call globally for police forces to embed evidence-based policing research methods into police interventions in order to better understand and evaluate their impact. This research study highlights the success and challenges that police forces may encounter when trying to embed evidence-based research methods within their organisation. Ten in-depth qualitative interviews were conducted with police officers and staff at Greater Manchester Police (GMP) who were tasked with integrating evidence-based research methods into their operational interventions. The findings of the study indicate that with adequate resources and individual expertise, evidence-based research methods can be applied to operational work, including the testing of initiatives with strict controls in order to fully evaluate the impact of an intervention. However, the findings also indicate that this may only be possible where an operational intervention is heavily resourced with police officers and staff who have a strong understanding of evidence-based policing research methods, attained for example through their own graduate studies. In addition, the findings reveal that ample planning time was needed to trial operational interventions that would require strict parameters for what would be tested and how it would be evaluated. In contrast, interviewees underscored that operational interventions with the need for a speedy implementation were less likely to have evidence-based research methods applied. The study contributes to the wider literature on evidence-based policing by providing considerations for police forces globally wishing to apply evidence-based research methods to more of their operational work in order to understand their impact. The study also provides considerations for academics who work closely with police forces in assisting them to embed evidence-based policing. This includes how academics can provide their expertise to police decision makers wanting to underpin their work through evidence-based research methods, such as providing guidance on how to evaluate the impact of their work with varying research methods that they may otherwise be unaware of.

Keywords: evidence based policing, evidence-based practice, operational policing, organisational change

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Authors: R. Senthilkumar

Abstract:

Most simple nonlinear thresholding rules for wavelet- based denoising assume that the wavelet coefficients are independent. However, wavelet coefficients of natural images have significant dependencies. This paper attempts to give a recipe for selecting one of the popular image-denoising algorithms based on VisuShrink, SureShrink, OracleShrink, BayesShrink and BiShrink and also this paper compares different Bivariate models used for image denoising applications. The first part of the paper compares different Shrinkage functions used for image-denoising. The second part of the paper compares different bivariate models and the third part of this paper uses the Bivariate model with modified marginal variance which is based on Laplacian assumption. This paper gives an experimental comparison on six 512x512 commonly used images, Lenna, Barbara, Goldhill, Clown, Boat and Stonehenge. The following noise powers 25dB,26dB, 27dB, 28dB and 29dB are added to the six standard images and the corresponding Peak Signal to Noise Ratio (PSNR) values are calculated for each noise level.

Keywords: BiShrink, Image-Denoising, PSNR, Shrinkage function

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Authors: Chidera G. Eze, Kennedy K. Abrokwa, Chimaobi V. Okolo

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This paper empirically examines the dynamic relationship between financial deepening and economic growth in a monetary union. We find positive but weak evidence of impacts of financial deepening on growth for Gambia, Gabon and Sierra Leone. There is no evidence of any positive significant impact for Ghana and Nigeria. We argue that, the weak evidence between financial deepening and economic growth can be a consequence of the inability of assessing credit (long-term loans), credit worthiness, lack of information and low level of bank deposits by the private sector despite the improvement in the financial sector.

Keywords: Financial deepening, economic growth, dynamics, innovation accounting.

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Authors: J. Arneric, A. Rozga

Abstract:

In this paper usefulness of quasi-Newton iteration procedure in parameters estimation of the conditional variance equation within BHHH algorithm is presented. Analytical solution of maximization of the likelihood function using first and second derivatives is too complex when the variance is time-varying. The advantage of BHHH algorithm in comparison to the other optimization algorithms is that requires no third derivatives with assured convergence. To simplify optimization procedure BHHH algorithm uses the approximation of the matrix of second derivatives according to information identity. However, parameters estimation in a/symmetric GARCH(1,1) model assuming normal distribution of returns is not that simple, i.e. it is difficult to solve it analytically. Maximum of the likelihood function can be founded by iteration procedure until no further increase can be found. Because the solutions of the numerical optimization are very sensitive to the initial values, GARCH(1,1) model starting parameters are defined. The number of iterations can be reduced using starting values close to the global maximum. Optimization procedure will be illustrated in framework of modeling volatility on daily basis of the most liquid stocks on Croatian capital market: Podravka stocks (food industry), Petrokemija stocks (fertilizer industry) and Ericsson Nikola Tesla stocks (information-s-communications industry).

Keywords: Heteroscedasticity, Log-likelihood Maximization, Quasi-Newton iteration procedure, Volatility.

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Authors: Ehsan Bashiri

Abstract:

A 7-step method (with 25 sub-steps) to assess risk of air pollutants is introduced. These steps are: pre-considerations, sampling, statistical analysis, exposure matrix and likelihood, doseresponse matrix and likelihood, total risk evaluation, and discussion of findings. All mentioned words and expressions are wellunderstood; however, almost all steps have been modified, improved, and coupled in such a way that a comprehensive method has been prepared. Accordingly, the SADRA (Statistical Analysis-Driven Risk Assessment) emphasizes extensive and ongoing application of analytical statistics in traditional risk assessment models. A Sulfur Dioxide case study validates the claim and provides a good illustration for this method.

Keywords: Criteria air pollutants, Matrix of risk, Riskassessment, Statistical analysis.

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Authors: Frederick Wedzerai Nyakudya

Abstract:

In this paper, we examine the relationship between human capital, personal wealth and social capital to explain the differences in start-up rates between female and male entrepreneurs. Since our dependent variable is dichotomous, we examine the determinants of these using a maximum likelihood logit estimator. We used the Global Entrepreneurship Monitor database covering the period 2006 to 2009 with 421 usable cases drawn from the Lower Layer Super Output Areas in East Midlands in the United Kingdom. We found evidence indicating that a female positively moderates the positive relationships between indicators of human capital and personal wealth with start-up activity. The findings have implications for programs, policies, and practices to encourage more females to engage in start-up activity.

Keywords: Entrepreneurship, Global Entrepreneurship Monitor, gender gap, women's entrepreneurship.

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Authors: F. Z. Doğru, O. Arslan

Abstract:

In general, classical methods such as maximum likelihood (ML) and least squares (LS) estimation methods are used to estimate the shape parameters of the Burr XII distribution. However, these estimators are very sensitive to the outliers. To overcome this problem we propose alternative robust estimators based on the M-estimation method for the shape parameters of the Burr XII distribution. We provide a small simulation study and a real data example to illustrate the performance of the proposed estimators over the ML and the LS estimators. The simulation results show that the proposed robust estimators generally outperform the classical estimators in terms of bias and root mean square errors when there are outliers in data.

Keywords: Burr XII distribution, robust estimator, M-estimator, maximum likelihood, least squares.

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Authors: Ainon Syazana Ab. Hamid, Seripah Awang Kechil, Ahmad Sukri Abd. Aziz

Abstract:

The Marangoni convective instability in a horizontal fluid layer with the insoluble surfactant and nondeformable free surface is investigated. The surface tension at the free surface is linearly dependent on the temperature and concentration gradients. At the bottom surface, the temperature conditions of uniform temperature and uniform heat flux are considered. By linear stability theory, the exact analytical solutions for the steady Marangoni convection are derived and the marginal curves are plotted. The effects of surfactant or elasticity number, Lewis number and Biot number on the marginal Marangoni instability are assessed. The surfactant concentration gradients and the heat transfer mechanism at the free surface have stabilizing effects while the Lewis number destabilizes fluid system. The fluid system with uniform temperature condition at the bottom boundary is more stable than the fluid layer that is subjected to uniform heat flux at the bottom boundary.

Keywords: Analytical solutions, Marangoni Instability, Nondeformable free surface, Surfactant.

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Authors: D. I. De Souza, D. R. Fonseca, R. Rocha

Abstract:

In this paper we will develop further the sequential life test approach presented in a previous article by [1] using an underlying two parameter Weibull sampling distribution. The minimum life will be considered equal to zero. We will again provide rules for making one of the three possible decisions as each observation becomes available; that is: accept the null hypothesis H0; reject the null hypothesis H0; or obtain additional information by making another observation. The product being analyzed is a new type of a low alloy-high strength steel product. To estimate the shape and the scale parameters of the underlying Weibull model we will use a maximum likelihood approach for censored failure data. A new example will further develop the proposed sequential life testing approach.

Keywords: Sequential Life Testing, Underlying Weibull Model, Maximum Likelihood Approach, Hypothesis Testing.

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Authors: Keunhong Chae, Seokho Yoon

Abstract:

In this paper, frequency offset (FO) estimation schemes robust to the non-Gaussian noise environments are proposed for orthogonal frequency division multiplexing (OFDM) systems. First, a maximum-likelihood (ML) estimation scheme in non-Gaussian noise environments is proposed, and then, the complexity of the ML estimation scheme is reduced by employing a reduced set of candidate values. In numerical results, it is demonstrated that the proposed schemes provide a significant performance improvement over the conventional estimation scheme in non-Gaussian noise environments while maintaining the performance similar to the estimation performance in Gaussian noise environments.

Keywords: Frequency offset estimation, maximum-likelihood, non-Gaussian noise environment, OFDM, training symbol.

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Authors: M. Kaya, M. Eris

Abstract:

Internet use, intelligent communication tools, and social media have all become an integral part of our daily life as a result of rapid developments in information technology. However, this widespread use increases crimes committed in the digital environment. Therefore, digital forensics, dealing with various crimes committed in digital environment, has become an important research topic. It is in the research scope of digital forensics to investigate digital evidences such as computer, cell phone, hard disk, DVD, etc. and to report whether it contains any crime related elements. There are many software and hardware tools developed for use in the digital evidence acquisition process. Today, the most widely used digital evidence investigation tools are based on the principle of finding all the data taken place in digital evidence that is matched with specified criteria and presenting it to the investigator (e.g. text files, files starting with letter A, etc.). Then, digital forensics experts carry out data analysis to figure out whether these data are related to a potential crime. Examination of a 1 TB hard disk may take hours or even days, depending on the expertise and experience of the examiner. In addition, it depends on examiner’s experience, and may change overall result involving in different cases overlooked. In this study, a hash-based matching and digital evidence evaluation method is proposed, and it is aimed to automatically classify the evidence containing criminal elements, thereby shortening the time of the digital evidence examination process and preventing human errors.

Keywords: Block matching, digital evidence, hash list.

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Authors: Ali Gholami, M.Esfadiari, M.H.Masihabadi

Abstract:

In this research three methods of Maximum Likelihood, Mahalanobis Distance and Minimum Distance were analyzed in the Western part of Isfahan province in the Iran country. For this purpose, the IRS satellite images and various land preparation uses in region including rangelands, irrigation farming, dry farming, gardens and urban areas were separated and identified. In these methods, matrix error and Kappa index were calculated and accuracy of each method, based on percentages: 53.13, 56.64 and 48.44, were obtained respectively. Considering the low accuracy of these methods to separate land uses due to spread of the land uses, it-s suggested the visual interpretation of the map, to preparing the land use map in this region. The map prepared by visual interpretation is in high accuracy if it will be accompany with the visit of the region.

Keywords: Aghche Region, land use map, MaximumLikelihood, Mahalanobis Distance and Minimum Distance.

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Authors: N. Mamode Khan, V. Jowaheer

Abstract:

Number of breakdowns experienced by a machinery is a highly under-dispersed count random variable and its value can be attributed to the factors related to the mechanical input and output of that machinery. Analyzing such under-dispersed count observations as a function of the explanatory factors has been a challenging problem. In this paper, we aim at estimating the effects of various factors on the number of breakdowns experienced by a passenger car based on a study performed in Mauritius over a year. We remark that the number of passenger car breakdowns is highly under-dispersed. These data are therefore modelled and analyzed using Com-Poisson regression model. We use quasi-likelihood estimation approach to estimate the parameters of the model. Under-dispersion parameter is estimated to be 2.14 justifying the appropriateness of Com-Poisson distribution in modelling under-dispersed count responses recorded in this study.

Keywords: Breakdowns, under-dispersion, com-poisson, generalized linear model, quasi-likelihood estimation

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Authors: Somkiat Lerkvaranyu, Yoshikazu Miyanaga

Abstract:

In this paper, a new technique of signal detection has been proposed for detecting the orthogonal frequency-division multiplexing (OFDM) signal in the presence of nonlinear distortion.There are several advantages of OFDM communications system.However, one of the existing problems is remain considered as the nonlinear distortion generated by high-power-amplifier at the transmitter end due to the large dynamic range of an OFDM signal. The proposed method is the maximum likelihood detection with the symbol estimation. When the training data are available, the neural network has been used to learn the characteristic of received signal and to estimate the new positions of the transmitted symbol which are provided to the maximum likelihood detector. Resulting in the system performance, the nonlinear distortions of a traveling wave tube amplifier with OFDM signal are considered in this paper.Simulation results of the bit-error-rate performance are obtained with 16-QAM OFDM systems.

Keywords: OFDM, TWTA, nonlinear distortion, detection.

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Authors: Darren Thompson, Philip Morrow, Bryan Scotney, John Winder

Abstract:

Patients with diabetes are susceptible to chronic foot wounds which may be difficult to manage and slow to heal. Diagnosis and treatment currently rely on the subjective judgement of experienced professionals. An objective method of tissue assessment is required. In this paper, a data fusion approach was taken to wound tissue classification. The supervised Maximum Likelihood and unsupervised Multi-Modal Expectation Maximisation algorithms were used to classify tissues within simulated wound models by weighting the contributions of both colour and 3D depth information. It was found that, at low weightings, depth information could show significant improvements in classification accuracy when compared to classification by colour alone, particularly when using the maximum likelihood method. However, larger weightings were found to have an entirely negative effect on accuracy.

Keywords: Classification, data fusion, diabetic foot, stereophotogrammetry, tissue colour.

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Authors: E. B. Jo, J. H. Lee, J. Y. Park, S. M. Kim

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In this study, we present an advanced detection technique for mass type breast cancer based on texture information of organs. The proposed method detects the cancer areas in three stages. In the first stage, the midpoints of mass area are determined based on AHE (Adaptive Histogram Equalization). In the second stage, we set the threshold coefficient of homogeneity by using MLE (Maximum Likelihood Estimation) to compute the uniformity of texture. Finally, mass type cancer tissues are extracted from the original image. As a result, it was observed that the proposed method shows an improved detection performance on dense breast tissues of Korean women compared with the existing methods. It is expected that the proposed method may provide additional diagnostic information for detection of mass-type breast cancer.

Keywords: Mass Type Breast Cancer, Mammography, Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE), Ranklets, SVM

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Authors: Tanapong Khomyat, Peerapong Uthansakul, Monthippa Uthansakul

Abstract:

In this paper, we evaluate the performance of the Hybrid-MIMO Receiver Scheme (HMRS) in Cognitive Radio network (CR-network). We investigate the efficiency of the proposed scheme which the energy level and user number of primary user are varied according to the characteristic of CR-network. HMRS can allow users to transmit either Space-Time Block Code (STBC) or Spatial-Multiplexing (SM) streams simultaneously by using Successive Interference Cancellation (SIC) and Maximum Likelihood Detection (MLD). From simulation, the results indicate that the interference level effects to the performance of HMRS. Moreover, the exact closed-form capacity of the proposed scheme is derived and compared with STBC scheme.

Keywords: Hybrid-MIMO, Cognitive radio network (CRnetwork), Symbol Error Rate (SER), Successive interference cancellation (SIC), Maximum likelihood detection (MLD).

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Authors: Gamal Shiha, Waleed Samir, Zahid Azam, Premashis Kar, Saeed Hamid, Shiv Sarin

Abstract:

A simple, rapid and non-invasive electromagnetic sensor (C-FAST device) was- patented; for diagnosis of HCV RNA. Aim: To test the validity of the device compared to standard HCV PCR. Subjects and Methods: The first phase was done as pilot in Egypt on 79 participants; the second phase was done in five centers: one center from Egypt, two centers from Pakistan and two centers from India (800, 92 and 113 subjects respectively). The third phase was done nationally as multicenter study on (1600) participants for ensuring its representativeness. Results: When compared to PCR technique, C-FAST device revealed sensitivity 95% to 100%, specificity 95.5% to 100%, PPV 89.5% to 100%, NPV 95% to 100% and positive likelihood ratios 21.8% to 38.5%. Conclusion: It is practical evidence that HCV nucleotides emit electromagnetic signals that can be used for its identification. As compared to PCR, C-FAST is an accurate, valid and non-invasive device.

Keywords: C-FAST- a valid and reliable device, Distant cellular interaction, Electromagnetic signal detection, Non-invasive diagnosis of HCV.

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Authors: D. I. De Souza, G. P. Azevedo, D. R. Fonseca

Abstract:

In this paper we will develop further the sequential life test approach presented in a previous article by [1] using an underlying two parameter Inverse Weibull sampling distribution. The location parameter or minimum life will be considered equal to zero. Once again we will provide rules for making one of the three possible decisions as each observation becomes available; that is: accept the null hypothesis H0; reject the null hypothesis H0; or obtain additional information by making another observation. The product being analyzed is a new electronic component. There is little information available about the possible values the parameters of the corresponding Inverse Weibull underlying sampling distribution could have.To estimate the shape and the scale parameters of the underlying Inverse Weibull model we will use a maximum likelihood approach for censored failure data. A new example will further develop the proposed sequential life testing approach.

Keywords: Sequential Life Testing, Inverse Weibull Model, Maximum Likelihood Approach, Hypothesis Testing.

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Authors: B. Bergström, A. Ladd, A. Jones, L. Rosso, P. Michael

Abstract:

Attitudes toward treatment manuals serve as a meaningful predictor of general attitudes toward evidence-based practice. Despite demonstrating high effectiveness in treating many mental disorders, manualized treatments have been underutilized by practitioners. Thus, one can assess the state of the field regarding the adoption of evidence-based practices by surveying practitioner attitudes towards manualized treatments. This study is an adapted replication that assesses psychology graduate student attitudes towards manualized treatments, as a general marker for attitudes towards evidence-based practice. Training programs provide future clinicians with the foundation for critical skills in clinical practice. Research demonstrates that post-graduate continuing education has little to no effect on clinical practice; thus, graduate programs serve as the primary, and often final platform for all future practice. However, there are little empirical data identifying the attitudes and training of graduate students in utilizing manualized treatments. The empirical analysis of this study indicates an increase in positive attitudes among graduate student attitudes towards manualized treatments (within the United States), when compared to past surveys of professional psychologists. Findings from this study may inform graduate programs of barriers for students in developing positive attitudes toward manualized treatments and evidence-based practice. This study also serves as a preliminary predictor of the state-of-the field, in regards to professional psychologists attitudes towards evidence-based practice, if attitudes remain stable. This study indicates that the attitudes toward utilizing evidence-based practices, such as treatment manuals, has become more positive since year 2000.

Keywords: Evidence based treatment, Future of clinical science, Manualized treatment, Student attitudes towards evidence based treatments.

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Authors: Yeon-Jea Cho, Sang-Uk Park, Won-Chul Choi, Dong-Jo Park

Abstract:

This paper proposes a smart design strategy for a sequential detector to reliably detect the primary user-s signal, especially in fast fading environments. We study the computation of the log-likelihood ratio for coping with a fast changing received signal and noise sample variances, which are considered random variables. First, we analyze the detectability of the conventional generalized log-likelihood ratio (GLLR) scheme when considering fast changing statistics of unknown parameters caused by fast fading effects. Secondly, we propose an efficient sensing algorithm for performing the sequential probability ratio test in a robust and efficient manner when the channel statistics are unknown. Finally, the proposed scheme is compared to the conventional method with simulation results with respect to the average number of samples required to reach a detection decision.

Keywords: Cognitive radio, fast fading, sequential detection, spectrum sensing.

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Authors: Siti Aisyah Zakaria, Nor Azrita Mohd Amin, Noor Fadhilah Ahmad Radi, Nasrul Hamidin

Abstract:

Higher ground-level ozone (GLO) concentration adversely affects human health, vegetations as well as activities in the ecosystem. In Malaysia, most of the analysis on GLO concentration are carried out using the average value of GLO concentration, which refers to the centre of distribution to make a prediction or estimation. However, analysis which focuses on the higher value or extreme value in GLO concentration is rarely explored. Hence, the objective of this study is to classify the tail behaviour of GLO using generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution estimation the return level using the corresponding modelling (Gumbel, Weibull, and Frechet) of GEV distribution. The results show that Weibull distribution which is also known as short tail distribution and considered as having less extreme behaviour is the best-fitted distribution for four selected air monitoring stations in Peninsular Malaysia, namely Larkin, Pelabuhan Kelang, Shah Alam, and Tanjung Malim; while Gumbel distribution which is considered as a medium tail distribution is the best-fitted distribution for Nilai station. The return level of GLO concentration in Shah Alam station is comparatively higher than other stations. Overall, return levels increase with increasing return periods but the increment depends on the type of the tail of GEV distribution’s tail. We conduct this study by using maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) method to estimate the parameters at four selected stations in Peninsular Malaysia. Next, the validation for the fitted block maxima series to GEV distribution is performed using probability plot, quantile plot and likelihood ratio test. Profile likelihood confidence interval is tested to verify the type of GEV distribution. These results are important as a guide for early notification on future extreme ozone events.

Keywords: Extreme value theory, generalized extreme value distribution, ground-level ozone, return level.

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Authors: Saule Mussabekova

Abstract:

Recent advances in genetics have allowed increasing acutely the capacities of the formation of reliable evidence in conducting forensic examinations. Thus, traces of biological origin are important sources of information about a crime. Currently, around the world, sexual offenses have increased, and among them are those in which the criminals use various detergents to remove traces of their crime. A feature of modern synthetic detergents is the presence of biological additives - enzymes. Enzymes purposefully destroy stains of biological origin. To study the nature and extent of the impact of modern washing powders on saliva stains on the physical evidence, specially prepared test specimens of different types of tissues to which saliva was applied have been examined. Materials and Methods: Washing machines of famous manufacturers of household appliances have been used with different production characteristics and advertised brands of washing powder for test washing. Over 3,500 experimental samples were tested. After washing, the traces of saliva were identified using modern research methods of forensic medicine. Results: The influence was tested and the dependence of the use of different washing programs, types of washing machines and washing powders in the process of establishing saliva trace and identify of the stains on the physical evidence while washing was revealed. The results of experimental and practical expert studies have shown that in most cases it is not possible to draw the conclusions in the identification of saliva traces on physical evidence after washing. This is a consequence of the effect of biological additives and other additional factors on traces of saliva during washing. Conclusions: On the basis of the results of the study, the feasibility of saliva traces of the stains on physical evidence after washing is established. The use of modern molecular genetic methods makes it possible to partially solve the problems arising in the study of unlaundered evidence. Additional study of physical evidence after washing facilitates detection and investigation of sexual offenses against women and children.

Keywords: Saliva research, modern synthetic detergents, laundry detergents, forensic medicine.

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Authors: Yao Wu

Abstract:

In the context of financial globalization, China has put forward the policy goal of high-quality development, and the digital economy, with its advantage of information resources, is driving China's export trade to achieve high-quality development. Due to the long-standing financing constraints of small and medium-sized export enterprises, how to expand the export scale of small and medium-sized enterprises has become a major threshold for the development of China's export trade. This paper firstly adopts the hierarchical analysis method to establish the evaluation system of high-quality development of China's export trade; secondly, the panel data of 30 provinces in China from 2011 to 2018 are selected for empirical analysis to establish the impact model of digital inclusive finance on the high-quality development of China's export trade; based on the analysis of the heterogeneous enterprise trade model, a mediating effect model is established to verify the mediating role of credit constraint in the development of high-quality export trade in China. Based on the above analysis, this paper concludes that inclusive digital finance, with its unique digital and inclusive nature, alleviates the credit constraint problem among SMEs, enhances the binary marginal effect of SMEs' exports, optimizes their export scale and structure, and promotes the high-quality development of regional and even national export trade. Finally, based on the findings of this paper, we propose insights and suggestions for inclusive digital finance to promote the high-quality development of export trade.

Keywords: Digital inclusive finance, high-quality development of export trade, fixed effects, binary marginal effects.

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Authors: M. O. Ezegbogu, H. B. Osadolor

Abstract:

Lipsticks constitute a significant source of transfer evidence, and can, therefore, provide corroborative or inclusionary evidence in criminal investigation. This study aimed to determine the uniqueness and persistence of different lipstick smears using Thin Layer Chromatography (TLC), and Gas Chromatography with a Flame Ionisation Detector (GC-FID). In this study, we analysed lipstick smears retrieved from tea cups exposed to the environment for up to four weeks. The n-alkane content of each sample was determined using GC-FID, while TLC was used to determine the number of bands, and retention factor of each band per smear. This study shows that TLC gives more consistent results over a 4-week period than GC-FID. It also proposes a maximum exposure time of two weeks for the analysis of lipsticks left in the open using GC-FID. Finally, we conclude that neither TLC nor GC-FID can distinguish lipstick evidence recovered from hypothetical crime scenes.

Keywords: Forensic science, chromatography, identification, lipstick.

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Authors: Suman Senapati, Goutam Saha

Abstract:

Real world Speaker Identification (SI) application differs from ideal or laboratory conditions causing perturbations that leads to a mismatch between the training and testing environment and degrade the performance drastically. Many strategies have been adopted to cope with acoustical degradation; wavelet based Bayesian marginal model is one of them. But Bayesian marginal models cannot model the inter-scale statistical dependencies of different wavelet scales. Simple nonlinear estimators for wavelet based denoising assume that the wavelet coefficients in different scales are independent in nature. However wavelet coefficients have significant inter-scale dependency. This paper enhances this inter-scale dependency property by a Circularly Symmetric Probability Density Function (CS-PDF) related to the family of Spherically Invariant Random Processes (SIRPs) in Log Gabor Wavelet (LGW) domain and corresponding joint shrinkage estimator is derived by Maximum a Posteriori (MAP) estimator. A framework is proposed based on these to denoise speech signal for automatic speaker identification problems. The robustness of the proposed framework is tested for Text Independent Speaker Identification application on 100 speakers of POLYCOST and 100 speakers of YOHO speech database in three different noise environments. Experimental results show that the proposed estimator yields a higher improvement in identification accuracy compared to other estimators on popular Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM) based speaker model and Mel-Frequency Cepstral Coefficient (MFCC) features.

Keywords: Speaker Identification, Log Gabor Wavelet, Bayesian Bivariate Estimator, Circularly Symmetric Probability Density Function, SIRP.

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Authors: Ehab Mourtaga, Ahmad Sharieh, Mousa Abdallah

Abstract:

An automatic speech recognition system for the formal Arabic language is needed. The Quran is the most formal spoken book in Arabic, it is spoken all over the world. In this research, an automatic speech recognizer for Quranic based speakerindependent was developed and tested. The system was developed based on the tri-phone Hidden Markov Model and Maximum Likelihood Linear Regression (MLLR). The MLLR computes a set of transformations which reduces the mismatch between an initial model set and the adaptation data. It uses the regression class tree, as well as, estimates a set of linear transformations for the mean and variance parameters of a Gaussian mixture HMM system. The 30th Chapter of the Quran, with five of the most famous readers of the Quran, was used for the training and testing of the data. The chapter includes about 2000 distinct words. The advantages of using the Quranic verses as the database in this developed recognizer are the uniqueness of the words and the high level of orderliness between verses. The level of accuracy from the tested data ranged 68 to 85%.

Keywords: Hidden Markov Model (HMM), MaximumLikelihood Linear Regression (MLLR), Quran, Regression ClassTree, Speech Recognition, Speaker-independent.

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Authors: D. I. De Souza, G. P. Azevedo, R. Rocha

Abstract:

In this paper we will develop a sequential life test approach applied to a modified low alloy-high strength steel part used in highway overpasses in Brazil.We will consider two possible underlying sampling distributions: the Normal and theInverse Weibull models. The minimum life will be considered equal to zero. We will use the two underlying models to analyze a fatigue life test situation, comparing the results obtained from both.Since a major chemical component of this low alloy-high strength steel part has been changed, there is little information available about the possible values that the parameters of the corresponding Normal and Inverse Weibull underlying sampling distributions could have. To estimate the shape and the scale parameters of these two sampling models we will use a maximum likelihood approach for censored failure data. We will also develop a truncation mechanism for the Inverse Weibull and Normal models. We will provide rules to truncate a sequential life testing situation making one of the two possible decisions at the moment of truncation; that is, accept or reject the null hypothesis H0. An example will develop the proposed truncated sequential life testing approach for the Inverse Weibull and Normal models.

Keywords: Sequential life testing, normal and inverse Weibull models, maximum likelihood approach, truncation mechanism.

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Authors: Fahad Alanazi, Andrew Jones

Abstract:

Digital forensics seeks to achieve the successful investigation of digital crimes through obtaining acceptable evidence from digital devices that can be presented in a court of law. Thus, the digital forensics investigation is normally performed through a number of phases in order to achieve the required level of accuracy in the investigation processes. Since 1984 there have been a number of models and frameworks developed to support the digital investigation processes. In this paper, we review a number of the investigation processes that have been produced throughout the years and introduce a proposed digital forensic model which is based on the scope of the Saudi Arabia investigation process. The proposed model has been integrated with existing models for the investigation processes and produced a new phase to deal with a situation where there is initially insufficient evidence.

Keywords: Digital forensics, Process, Metadata, Traceback, Saudi Arabia.

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