Search results for: MRMC State unification Variable Prediction (MRSUP)
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 3697

Search results for: MRMC State unification Variable Prediction (MRSUP)

3637 New Product-Type Estimators for the Population Mean Using Quartiles of the Auxiliary Variable

Authors: Amer Ibrahim Falah Al-Omari

Abstract:

In this paper, we suggest new product-type estimators for the population mean of the variable of interest exploiting the first or the third quartile of the auxiliary variable. We obtain mean square error equations and the bias for the estimators. We study the properties of these estimators using simple random sampling (SRS) and ranked set sampling (RSS) methods. It is found that, SRS and RSS produce approximately unbiased estimators of the population mean. However, the RSS estimators are more efficient than those obtained using SRS based on the same number of measured units for all values of the correlation coefficient.

Keywords: Product estimator, auxiliary variable, simple random sampling, extreme ranked set sampling

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3636 An Efficient Energy Adaptive Hybrid Error Correction Technique for Underwater Wireless Sensor Networks

Authors: Ammar Elyas babiker, M.Nordin B. Zakaria, Hassan Yosif, Samir B. Ibrahim

Abstract:

Variable channel conditions in underwater networks, and variable distances between sensors due to water current, leads to variable bit error rate (BER). This variability in BER has great effects on energy efficiency of error correction techniques used. In this paper an efficient energy adaptive hybrid error correction technique (AHECT) is proposed. AHECT adaptively changes error technique from pure retransmission (ARQ) in a low BER case to a hybrid technique with variable encoding rates (ARQ & FEC) in a high BER cases. An adaptation algorithm depends on a precalculated packet acceptance rate (PAR) look-up table, current BER, packet size and error correction technique used is proposed. Based on this adaptation algorithm a periodically 3-bit feedback is added to the acknowledgment packet to state which error correction technique is suitable for the current channel conditions and distance. Comparative studies were done between this technique and other techniques, and the results show that AHECT is more energy efficient and has high probability of success than all those techniques.

Keywords: Underwater communication, wireless sensornetworks, error correction technique, energy efficiency

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3635 A Deep-Learning Based Prediction of Pancreatic Adenocarcinoma with Electronic Health Records from the State of Maine

Authors: Xiaodong Li, Peng Gao, Chao-Jung Huang, Shiying Hao, Xuefeng B. Ling, Yongxia Han, Yaqi Zhang, Le Zheng, Chengyin Ye, Modi Liu, Minjie Xia, Changlin Fu, Bo Jin, Karl G. Sylvester, Eric Widen

Abstract:

Predicting the risk of Pancreatic Adenocarcinoma (PA) in advance can benefit the quality of care and potentially reduce population mortality and morbidity. The aim of this study was to develop and prospectively validate a risk prediction model to identify patients at risk of new incident PA as early as 3 months before the onset of PA in a statewide, general population in Maine. The PA prediction model was developed using Deep Neural Networks, a deep learning algorithm, with a 2-year electronic-health-record (EHR) cohort. Prospective results showed that our model identified 54.35% of all inpatient episodes of PA, and 91.20% of all PA that required subsequent chemoradiotherapy, with a lead-time of up to 3 months and a true alert of 67.62%. The risk assessment tool has attained an improved discriminative ability. It can be immediately deployed to the health system to provide automatic early warnings to adults at risk of PA. It has potential to identify personalized risk factors to facilitate customized PA interventions.

Keywords: Cancer prediction, deep learning, electronic health records, pancreatic adenocarcinoma.

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3634 Customer Churn Prediction: A Cognitive Approach

Authors: Damith Senanayake, Lakmal Muthugama, Laksheen Mendis, Tiroshan Madushanka

Abstract:

Customer churn prediction is one of the most useful areas of study in customer analytics. Due to the enormous amount of data available for such predictions, machine learning and data mining have been heavily used in this domain. There exist many machine learning algorithms directly applicable for the problem of customer churn prediction, and here, we attempt to experiment on a novel approach by using a cognitive learning based technique in an attempt to improve the results obtained by using a combination of supervised learning methods, with cognitive unsupervised learning methods.

Keywords: Growing Self Organizing Maps, Kernel Methods, Churn Prediction.

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3633 Applications of Prediction and Identification Using Adaptive DCMAC Neural Networks

Authors: Yu-Lin Liao, Ya-Fu Peng

Abstract:

An adaptive dynamic cerebellar model articulation controller (DCMAC) neural network used for solving the prediction and identification problem is proposed in this paper. The proposed DCMAC has superior capability to the conventional cerebellar model articulation controller (CMAC) neural network in efficient learning mechanism, guaranteed system stability and dynamic response. The recurrent network is embedded in the DCMAC by adding feedback connections in the association memory space so that the DCMAC captures the dynamic response, where the feedback units act as memory elements. The dynamic gradient descent method is adopted to adjust DCMAC parameters on-line. Moreover, the analytical method based on a Lyapunov function is proposed to determine the learning-rates of DCMAC so that the variable optimal learning-rates are derived to achieve most rapid convergence of identifying error. Finally, the adaptive DCMAC is applied in two computer simulations. Simulation results show that accurate identifying response and superior dynamic performance can be obtained because of the powerful on-line learning capability of the proposed DCMAC.

Keywords: adaptive, cerebellar model articulation controller, CMAC, prediction, identification

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3632 A Variable Stiffness Approach to Vibration Control

Authors: S. A. Alotaibi, M. A. Al-Ajmi

Abstract:

This work introduces a new concept for controlling the mechanical vibrations via variable stiffness coil spring. The concept relies on fitting a screw though the spring to change the number of active spring coils. A prototype has been built and tested with promising results toward an innovation in the field of vibration control.

Keywords: Variable stiffness, coil spring, vibration control.

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3631 Analytical Solutions of Three Dimensional Steady-State Heat Transfer in Rectangular Ribs

Authors: Tao Nie, Weiqiang Liu

Abstract:

In order to obtain an accurate result of the heat transfer of the rib in the internal cooling Rectangular channel, using separation of variables, analytical solutions of three dimensional steady-state heat conduction in rectangular ribs are given by solving three dimensional steady-state function of the rectangular ribs. Therefore, we can get solution of three dimensional temperature field in the rib. Based on the solution, we can get how the Bi number affected on heat transfer. Furthermore, comparisons of the analytical and numerical results indicate agreement on temperature field in the rib.

Keywords: variable separation method, analytical solution, rib, heat transfer

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3630 Formant Tracking Linear Prediction Model using HMMs for Noisy Speech Processing

Authors: Zaineb Ben Messaoud, Dorra Gargouri, Saida Zribi, Ahmed Ben Hamida

Abstract:

This paper presents a formant-tracking linear prediction (FTLP) model for speech processing in noise. The main focus of this work is the detection of formant trajectory based on Hidden Markov Models (HMM), for improved formant estimation in noise. The approach proposed in this paper provides a systematic framework for modelling and utilization of a time- sequence of peaks which satisfies continuity constraints on parameter; the within peaks are modelled by the LP parameters. The formant tracking LP model estimation is composed of three stages: (1) a pre-cleaning multi-band spectral subtraction stage to reduce the effect of residue noise on formants (2) estimation stage where an initial estimate of the LP model of speech for each frame is obtained (3) a formant classification using probability models of formants and Viterbi-decoders. The evaluation results for the estimation of the formant tracking LP model tested in Gaussian white noise background, demonstrate that the proposed combination of the initial noise reduction stage with formant tracking and LPC variable order analysis, results in a significant reduction in errors and distortions. The performance was evaluated with noisy natual vowels extracted from international french and English vocabulary speech signals at SNR value of 10dB. In each case, the estimated formants are compared to reference formants.

Keywords: Formants Estimation, HMM, Multi Band Spectral Subtraction, Variable order LPC coding, White Gauusien Noise.

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3629 Mixtures of Monotone Networks for Prediction

Authors: Marina Velikova, Hennie Daniels, Ad Feelders

Abstract:

In many data mining applications, it is a priori known that the target function should satisfy certain constraints imposed by, for example, economic theory or a human-decision maker. In this paper we consider partially monotone prediction problems, where the target variable depends monotonically on some of the input variables but not on all. We propose a novel method to construct prediction models, where monotone dependences with respect to some of the input variables are preserved by virtue of construction. Our method belongs to the class of mixture models. The basic idea is to convolute monotone neural networks with weight (kernel) functions to make predictions. By using simulation and real case studies, we demonstrate the application of our method. To obtain sound assessment for the performance of our approach, we use standard neural networks with weight decay and partially monotone linear models as benchmark methods for comparison. The results show that our approach outperforms partially monotone linear models in terms of accuracy. Furthermore, the incorporation of partial monotonicity constraints not only leads to models that are in accordance with the decision maker's expertise, but also reduces considerably the model variance in comparison to standard neural networks with weight decay.

Keywords: mixture models, monotone neural networks, partially monotone models, partially monotone problems.

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3628 The State-of-Art Environmental Impact Assessment: An Overview

Authors: Tsolmon Tumenjargal, Muhammad Hassan Khalil, Wu Yao Guo

Abstract:

The research on the effectiveness of environmental assessment (EA) is a milestone effort to evaluate the state of the field, including many contributors related with a lot of countries since more than two decades. In the 1960s, there was a surge of interest between modern industrialized countries over unexpected opposite effects of technical invention. The interest led to choice of approaches for assessing and prediction the impressions of technology and advancement for social and economic, state health and safety, solidity and the circumstances. These are consisting of risk assessment, technology assessment, environmental impact assessment and costbenefit analysis. In this research contribution, the authors have described the research status for environmental assessment in cumulative environmental system. This article discusses the methods for cumulative effect assessment (CEA).

Keywords: Cumulative effect assessment, Environmental impact assessment.

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3627 Allometric Models for Biomass Estimation in Savanna Woodland Area, Niger State, Nigeria

Authors: Abdullahi Jibrin, Aishetu Abdulkadir

Abstract:

The development of allometric models is crucial to accurate forest biomass/carbon stock assessment. The aim of this study was to develop a set of biomass prediction models that will enable the determination of total tree aboveground biomass for savannah woodland area in Niger State, Nigeria. Based on the data collected through biometric measurements of 1816 trees and destructive sampling of 36 trees, five species specific and one site specific models were developed. The sample size was distributed equally between the five most dominant species in the study site (Vitellaria paradoxa, Irvingia gabonensis, Parkia biglobosa, Anogeissus leiocarpus, Pterocarpus erinaceous). Firstly, the equations were developed for five individual species. Secondly these five species were mixed and were used to develop an allometric equation of mixed species. Overall, there was a strong positive relationship between total tree biomass and the stem diameter. The coefficient of determination (R2 values) ranging from 0.93 to 0.99 P < 0.001 were realised for the models; with considerable low standard error of the estimates (SEE) which confirms that the total tree above ground biomass has a significant relationship with the dbh. F-test values for the biomass prediction models were also significant at p < 0.001 which indicates that the biomass prediction models are valid. This study recommends that for improved biomass estimates in the study site, the site specific biomass models should preferably be used instead of using generic models.

Keywords: Allometriy, biomass, carbon stock, model, regression equation, woodland, inventory.

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3626 Combining Variable Ordering Heuristics for Improving Search Algorithms Performance

Authors: Abdolreza Hatamlou, Yusef Farhang, Mohammad Reza Meybodi

Abstract:

Variable ordering heuristics are used in constraint satisfaction algorithms. Different characteristics of various variable ordering heuristics are complementary. Therefore we have tried to get the advantages of all heuristics to improve search algorithms performance for solving constraint satisfaction problems. This paper considers combinations based on products and quotients, and then a newer form of combination based on weighted sums of ratings from a set of base heuristics, some of which result in definite improvements in performance.

Keywords: Constraint Satisfaction Problems, Variable Ordering Heuristics, Combination, Search Algorithms

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3625 Dynamic Analysis of Composite Doubly Curved Panels with Variable Thickness

Authors: I. Algul, G. Akgun, H. Kurtaran

Abstract:

Dynamic analysis of composite doubly curved panels with variable thickness subjected to different pulse types using Generalized Differential Quadrature method (GDQ) is presented in this study. Panels with variable thickness are used in the construction of aerospace and marine industry. Giving variable thickness to panels can allow the designer to get optimum structural efficiency. For this reason, estimating the response of variable thickness panels is very important to design more reliable structures under dynamic loads. Dynamic equations for composite panels with variable thickness are obtained using virtual work principle. Partial derivatives in the equation of motion are expressed with GDQ and Newmark average acceleration scheme is used for temporal discretization. Several examples are used to highlight the effectiveness of the proposed method. Results are compared with finite element method. Effects of taper ratios, boundary conditions and loading type on the response of composite panel are investigated.

Keywords: Generalized differential quadrature method, doubly curved panels, laminated composite materials, small displacement.

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3624 Useful Lifetime Prediction of Chevron Rubber Spring for Railway Vehicle

Authors: Chang Su Woo, Hyun Sung Park

Abstract:

Useful lifetime evaluation of chevron rubber spring was very important in design procedure to assure the safety and reliability. It is, therefore, necessary to establish a suitable criterion for the replacement period of chevron rubber spring. In this study, we performed characteristic analysis and useful lifetime prediction of chevron rubber spring. Rubber material coefficient was obtained by curve fittings of uniaxial tension equibiaxial tension and pure shear test. Computer simulation was executed to predict and evaluate the load capacity and stiffness for chevron rubber spring. In order to useful lifetime prediction of rubber material, we carried out the compression set with heat aging test in an oven at the temperature ranging from 50°C to 100°C during a period 180 days. By using the Arrhenius plot, several useful lifetime prediction equations for rubber material was proposed.

Keywords: Chevron rubber spring, material coefficient, finite element analysis, useful lifetime prediction.

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3623 A Contribution to the Polynomial Eigen Problem

Authors: Malika Yaici, Kamel Hariche, Tim Clarke

Abstract:

The relationship between eigenstructure (eigenvalues and eigenvectors) and latent structure (latent roots and latent vectors) is established. In control theory eigenstructure is associated with the state space description of a dynamic multi-variable system and a latent structure is associated with its matrix fraction description. Beginning with block controller and block observer state space forms and moving on to any general state space form, we develop the identities that relate eigenvectors and latent vectors in either direction. Numerical examples illustrate this result. A brief discussion of the potential of these identities in linear control system design follows. Additionally, we present a consequent result: a quick and easy method to solve the polynomial eigenvalue problem for regular matrix polynomials.

Keywords: Eigenvalues/Eigenvectors, Latent values/vectors, Matrix fraction description, State space description.

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3622 Using Probe Person Data for Travel Mode Detection

Authors: Muhammad Awais Shafique, Eiji Hato, Hideki Yaginuma

Abstract:

Recently GPS data is used in a lot of studies to automatically reconstruct travel patterns for trip survey. The aim is to minimize the use of questionnaire surveys and travel diaries so as to reduce their negative effects. In this paper data acquired from GPS and accelerometer embedded in smart phones is utilized to predict the mode of transportation used by the phone carrier. For prediction, Support Vector Machine (SVM) and Adaptive boosting (AdaBoost) are employed. Moreover a unique method to improve the prediction results from these algorithms is also proposed. Results suggest that the prediction accuracy of AdaBoost after improvement is relatively better than the rest.

Keywords: Accelerometer, AdaBoost, GPS, Mode Prediction, Support vector Machine.

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3621 Reasons for Non-Applicability of Software Entropy Metrics for Bug Prediction in Android

Authors: Arvinder Kaur, Deepti Chopra

Abstract:

Software Entropy Metrics for bug prediction have been validated on various software systems by different researchers. In our previous research, we have validated that Software Entropy Metrics calculated for Mozilla subsystem’s predict the future bugs reasonably well. In this study, the Software Entropy metrics are calculated for a subsystem of Android and it is noticed that these metrics are not suitable for bug prediction. The results are compared with a subsystem of Mozilla and a comparison is made between the two software systems to determine the reasons why Software Entropy metrics are not applicable for Android.

Keywords: Android, bug prediction, mining software repositories, Software Entropy.

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3620 Unsteadiness Effects on Variable Thrust Nozzle Performance

Authors: A. M. Tahsini, S. T. Mousavi

Abstract:

The purpose of this paper is to elucidate the flow unsteady behavior for moving plug in convergent-divergent variable thrust nozzle. Compressible axisymmetric Navier-Stokes equations are used to study this physical phenomenon. Different velocities are set for plug to investigate the effect of plug movement on flow unsteadiness. Variation of mass flow rate and thrust are compared under two conditions: First, the plug is placed at different positions and flow is simulated to reach the steady state (quasi steady simulation) and second, the plug is moved with assigned velocity and flow simulation is coupled with plug movement (unsteady simulation). If plug speed is high enough and its movement time scale is at the same order of the flow time scale, variation of the mass flow rate and thrust level versus plug position demonstrate a vital discrepancy under the quasi steady and unsteady conditions. This phenomenon should be considered especially from response time viewpoints in thrusters design. 

Keywords: Nozzle, Numerical study, Unsteady, Variable thrust.

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3619 Optimum Neural Network Architecture for Precipitation Prediction of Myanmar

Authors: Khaing Win Mar, Thinn Thu Naing

Abstract:

Nowadays, precipitation prediction is required for proper planning and management of water resources. Prediction with neural network models has received increasing interest in various research and application domains. However, it is difficult to determine the best neural network architecture for prediction since it is not immediately obvious how many input or hidden nodes are used in the model. In this paper, neural network model is used as a forecasting tool. The major aim is to evaluate a suitable neural network model for monthly precipitation mapping of Myanmar. Using 3-layerd neural network models, 100 cases are tested by changing the number of input and hidden nodes from 1 to 10 nodes, respectively, and only one outputnode used. The optimum model with the suitable number of nodes is selected in accordance with the minimum forecast error. In measuring network performance using Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), experimental results significantly show that 3 inputs-10 hiddens-1 output architecture model gives the best prediction result for monthly precipitation in Myanmar.

Keywords: Precipitation prediction, monthly precipitation, neural network models, Myanmar.

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3618 A New Technique for Solar Activity Forecasting Using Recurrent Elman Networks

Authors: Salvatore Marra, Francesco C. Morabito

Abstract:

In this paper we present an efficient approach for the prediction of two sunspot-related time series, namely the Yearly Sunspot Number and the IR5 Index, that are commonly used for monitoring solar activity. The method is based on exploiting partially recurrent Elman networks and it can be divided into three main steps: the first one consists in a “de-rectification" of the time series under study in order to obtain a new time series whose appearance, similar to a sum of sinusoids, can be modelled by our neural networks much better than the original dataset. After that, we normalize the derectified data so that they have zero mean and unity standard deviation and, finally, train an Elman network with only one input, a recurrent hidden layer and one output using a back-propagation algorithm with variable learning rate and momentum. The achieved results have shown the efficiency of this approach that, although very simple, can perform better than most of the existing solar activity forecasting methods.

Keywords: Elman neural networks, sunspot, solar activity, time series prediction.

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3617 Land Suitability Prediction Modelling for Agricultural Crops Using Machine Learning Approach: A Case Study of Khuzestan Province, Iran

Authors: Saba Gachpaz, Hamid Reza Heidari

Abstract:

The sharp increase in population growth leads to more pressure on agricultural areas to satisfy the food supply. This necessitates increased resource consumption and underscores the importance of addressing sustainable agriculture development along with other environmental considerations. Land-use management is a crucial factor in obtaining optimum productivity. Machine learning is a widely used technique in the agricultural sector, from yield prediction to customer behavior. This method focuses on learning and provides patterns and correlations from our data set. In this study, nine physical control factors, namely, soil classification, electrical conductivity, normalized difference water index (NDWI), groundwater level, elevation, annual precipitation, pH of water, annual mean temperature, and slope in the alluvial plain in Khuzestan (an agricultural hotspot in Iran) are used to decide the best agricultural land use for both rainfed and irrigated agriculture for 10 different crops. For this purpose, each variable was imported into Arc GIS, and a raster layer was obtained. In the next level, by using training samples, all layers were imported into the python environment. A random forest model was applied, and the weight of each variable was specified. In the final step, results were visualized using a digital elevation model, and the importance of all factors for each one of the crops was obtained. Our results show that despite 62% of the study area being allocated to agricultural purposes, only 42.9% of these areas can be defined as a suitable class for cultivation purposes.

Keywords: Land suitability, machine learning, random forest, sustainable agriculture.

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3616 Protein Residue Contact Prediction using Support Vector Machine

Authors: Chan Weng Howe, Mohd Saberi Mohamad

Abstract:

Protein residue contact map is a compact representation of secondary structure of protein. Due to the information hold in the contact map, attentions from researchers in related field were drawn and plenty of works have been done throughout the past decade. Artificial intelligence approaches have been widely adapted in related works such as neural networks, genetic programming, and Hidden Markov model as well as support vector machine. However, the performance of the prediction was not generalized which probably depends on the data used to train and generate the prediction model. This situation shown the importance of the features or information used in affecting the prediction performance. In this research, support vector machine was used to predict protein residue contact map on different combination of features in order to show and analyze the effectiveness of the features.

Keywords: contact map, protein residue contact, support vector machine, protein structure prediction

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3615 Equity Risk Premiums and Risk Free Rates in Modelling and Prediction of Financial Markets

Authors: Mohammad Ghavami, Reza S. Dilmaghani

Abstract:

This paper presents an adaptive framework for modelling financial markets using equity risk premiums, risk free rates and volatilities. The recorded economic factors are initially used to train four adaptive filters for a certain limited period of time in the past. Once the systems are trained, the adjusted coefficients are used for modelling and prediction of an important financial market index. Two different approaches based on least mean squares (LMS) and recursive least squares (RLS) algorithms are investigated. Performance analysis of each method in terms of the mean squared error (MSE) is presented and the results are discussed. Computer simulations carried out using recorded data show MSEs of 4% and 3.4% for the next month prediction using LMS and RLS adaptive algorithms, respectively. In terms of twelve months prediction, RLS method shows a better tendency estimation compared to the LMS algorithm.

Keywords: Prediction of financial markets, Adaptive methods, MSE, LSE.

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3614 Comparison of Different k-NN Models for Speed Prediction in an Urban Traffic Network

Authors: Seyoung Kim, Jeongmin Kim, Kwang Ryel Ryu

Abstract:

A database that records average traffic speeds measured at five-minute intervals for all the links in the traffic network of a metropolitan city. While learning from this data the models that can predict future traffic speed would be beneficial for the applications such as the car navigation system, building predictive models for every link becomes a nontrivial job if the number of links in a given network is huge. An advantage of adopting k-nearest neighbor (k-NN) as predictive models is that it does not require any explicit model building. Instead, k-NN takes a long time to make a prediction because it needs to search for the k-nearest neighbors in the database at prediction time. In this paper, we investigate how much we can speed up k-NN in making traffic speed predictions by reducing the amount of data to be searched for without a significant sacrifice of prediction accuracy. The rationale behind this is that we had a better look at only the recent data because the traffic patterns not only repeat daily or weekly but also change over time. In our experiments, we build several different k-NN models employing different sets of features which are the current and past traffic speeds of the target link and the neighbor links in its up/down-stream. The performances of these models are compared by measuring the average prediction accuracy and the average time taken to make a prediction using various amounts of data.

Keywords: Big data, k-NN, machine learning, traffic speed prediction.

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3613 A General Variable Neighborhood Search Algorithm to Minimize Makespan of the Distributed Permutation Flowshop Scheduling Problem

Authors: G. M. Komaki, S. Mobin, E. Teymourian, S. Sheikh

Abstract:

This paper addresses minimizing the makespan of the distributed permutation flow shop scheduling problem. In this problem, there are several parallel identical factories or flowshops each with series of similar machines. Each job should be allocated to one of the factories and all of the operations of the jobs should be performed in the allocated factory. This problem has recently gained attention and due to NP-Hard nature of the problem, metaheuristic algorithms have been proposed to tackle it. Majority of the proposed algorithms require large computational time which is the main drawback. In this study, a general variable neighborhood search algorithm (GVNS) is proposed where several time-saving schemes have been incorporated into it. Also, the GVNS uses the sophisticated method to change the shaking procedure or perturbation depending on the progress of the incumbent solution to prevent stagnation of the search. The performance of the proposed algorithm is compared to the state-of-the-art algorithms based on standard benchmark instances.

Keywords: Distributed permutation flow shop, scheduling, makespan, general variable neighborhood search algorithm.

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3612 Variable Rough Set Model and Its Knowledge Reduction for Incomplete and Fuzzy Decision Information Systems

Authors: Da-kuan Wei, Xian-zhong Zhou, Dong-jun Xin, Zhi-wei Chen

Abstract:

The information systems with incomplete attribute values and fuzzy decisions commonly exist in practical problems. On the base of the notion of variable precision rough set model for incomplete information system and the rough set model for incomplete and fuzzy decision information system, the variable rough set model for incomplete and fuzzy decision information system is constructed, which is the generalization of the variable precision rough set model for incomplete information system and that of rough set model for incomplete and fuzzy decision information system. The knowledge reduction and heuristic algorithm, built on the method and theory of precision reduction, are proposed.

Keywords: Rough set, Incomplete and fuzzy decision information system, Limited valued tolerance relation, Knowledge reduction, Variable rough set model

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3611 Prediction on Housing Price Based on Deep Learning

Authors: Li Yu, Chenlu Jiao, Hongrun Xin, Yan Wang, Kaiyang Wang

Abstract:

In order to study the impact of various factors on the housing price, we propose to build different prediction models based on deep learning to determine the existing data of the real estate in order to more accurately predict the housing price or its changing trend in the future. Considering that the factors which affect the housing price vary widely, the proposed prediction models include two categories. The first one is based on multiple characteristic factors of the real estate. We built Convolution Neural Network (CNN) prediction model and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) neural network prediction model based on deep learning, and logical regression model was implemented to make a comparison between these three models. Another prediction model is time series model. Based on deep learning, we proposed an LSTM-1 model purely regard to time series, then implementing and comparing the LSTM model and the Auto-Regressive and Moving Average (ARMA) model. In this paper, comprehensive study of the second-hand housing price in Beijing has been conducted from three aspects: crawling and analyzing, housing price predicting, and the result comparing. Ultimately the best model program was produced, which is of great significance to evaluation and prediction of the housing price in the real estate industry.

Keywords: Deep learning, convolutional neural network, LSTM, housing prediction.

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3610 Modeling of Random Variable with Digital Probability Hyper Digraph: Data-Oriented Approach

Authors: A. Habibizad Navin, M. Naghian Fesharaki, M. Mirnia, M. Kargar

Abstract:

In this paper we introduce Digital Probability Hyper Digraph for modeling random variable as the hierarchical data-oriented model.

Keywords: Data-Oriented Models, Data Structure, DigitalProbability Hyper Digraph, Random Variable, Statistic andProbability.

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3609 Crude Oil Price Prediction Using LSTM Networks

Authors: Varun Gupta, Ankit Pandey

Abstract:

Crude oil market is an immensely complex and dynamic environment and thus the task of predicting changes in such an environment becomes challenging with regards to its accuracy. A number of approaches have been adopted to take on that challenge and machine learning has been at the core in many of them. There are plenty of examples of algorithms based on machine learning yielding satisfactory results for such type of prediction. In this paper, we have tried to predict crude oil prices using Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) based recurrent neural networks. We have tried to experiment with different types of models using different epochs, lookbacks and other tuning methods. The results obtained are promising and presented a reasonably accurate prediction for the price of crude oil in near future.

Keywords: Crude oil price prediction, deep learning, LSTM, recurrent neural networks.

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3608 Stature Prediction Model Based On Hand Anthropometry

Authors: Arunesh Chandra, Pankaj Chandna, Surinder Deswal, Rajesh Kumar Mishra, Rajender Kumar

Abstract:

The arm length, hand length, hand breadth and middle finger length of 1540 right-handed industrial workers of Haryana state was used to assess the relationship between the upper limb dimensions and stature. Initially, the data were analyzed using basic univariate analysis and independent t-tests; then simple and multiple linear regression models were used to estimate stature using SPSS (version 17). There was a positive correlation between upper limb measurements (hand length, hand breadth, arm length and middle finger length) and stature (p < 0.01), which was highest for hand length. The accuracy of stature prediction ranged from ± 54.897 mm to ± 58.307 mm. The use of multiple regression equations gave better results than simple regression equations. This study provides new forensic standards for stature estimation from the upper limb measurements of male industrial workers of Haryana (India). The results of this research indicate that stature can be determined using hand dimensions with accuracy, when only upper limb is available due to any reasons likewise explosions, train/plane crashes, mutilated bodies, etc. The regression formula derived in this study will be useful for anatomists, archaeologists, anthropologists, design engineers and forensic scientists for fairly prediction of stature using regression equations.

Keywords: Anthropometric dimensions, Forensic identification, Industrial workers, Stature prediction.

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