Search results for: Logistic regression
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 810

Search results for: Logistic regression

660 Modeling Aeration of Sharp Crested Weirs by Using Support Vector Machines

Authors: Arun Goel

Abstract:

The present paper attempts to investigate the prediction of air entrainment rate and aeration efficiency of a free overfall jets issuing from a triangular sharp crested weir by using regression based modelling. The empirical equations, Support vector machine (polynomial and radial basis function) models and the linear regression techniques were applied on the triangular sharp crested weirs relating the air entrainment rate and the aeration efficiency to the input parameters namely drop height, discharge, and vertex angle. It was observed that there exists a good agreement between the measured values and the values obtained using empirical equations, Support vector machine (Polynomial and rbf) models and the linear regression techniques. The test results demonstrated that the SVM based (Poly & rbf) model also provided acceptable prediction of the measured values with reasonable accuracy along with empirical equations and linear regression techniques in modelling the air entrainment rate and the aeration efficiency of a free overfall jets issuing from triangular sharp crested weir. Further sensitivity analysis has also been performed to study the impact of input parameter on the output in terms of air entrainment rate and aeration efficiency.

Keywords: Air entrainment rate, dissolved oxygen, regression, SVM, weir.

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659 A Research on Inference from Multiple Distance Variables in Hedonic Regression – Focus on Three Variables

Authors: Yan Wang, Yasushi Asami, Yukio Sadahiro

Abstract:

In urban context, urban nodes such as amenity or hazard will certainly affect house price, while classic hedonic analysis will employ distance variables measured from each urban nodes. However, effects from distances to facilities on house prices generally do not represent the true price of the property. Distance variables measured on the same surface are suffering a problem called multicollinearity, which is usually presented as magnitude variance and mean value in regression, errors caused by instability. In this paper, we provided a theoretical framework to identify and gather the data with less bias, and also provided specific sampling method on locating the sample region to avoid the spatial multicollinerity problem in three distance variable’s case.

Keywords: Hedonic regression, urban node, distance variables, multicollinerity, collinearity.

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658 Positive Analysis on Vulnerability, Information Security Incidents, and the Countermeasures of Japanese Internet Service Providers

Authors: Toshihiko Takemura, Makoto Osajima, Masatoshi Kawano

Abstract:

This paper includes a positive analysis to quantitatively grasp the relationship among vulnerability, information security incidents, and the countermeasures by using data based on a 2007 questionnaire survey for Japanese ISPs (Internet Service Providers). To grasp the relationships, logistic regression analysis is used. The results clarify that there are relationships between information security incidents and the countermeasures. Concretely, there is a positive relationship between information security incidents and the number of information security systems introduced as well as a negative relationship between information security incidents and information security education. It is also pointed out that (especially, local) ISPs do not execute efficient information security countermeasures/ investment concerned with systems, and it is suggested that they should positively execute information security education. In addition, to further heighten the information security level of Japanese telecommunication infrastructure, the necessity and importance of the government to implement policy to support the countermeasures of ISPs is insisted.

Keywords: Information security countermeasures, information security incidents, internet service providers, positive analysis

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657 Implementation of Response Surface Methodology using in Small Brown Rice Peeling Machine: Part I

Authors: S. Bangphan, P. Bangphan, T.Boonkang

Abstract:

Implementation of response surface methodology (RSM) was employed to study the effects of two factor (rubber clearance and round per minute) in brown rice peeling machine of The optimal BROKENS yield (19.02, average of three repeats),.The optimized composition derived from RSM regression was analyzed using Regression analysis and Analysis of Variance (ANOVA). At a significant level α = 0.05, the values of Regression coefficient, R 2 (adj)were 97.35 % and standard deviation were 1.09513. The independent variables are initial rubber clearance, and round per minute parameters namely. The investigating responses are final rubber clearance, and round per minute (RPM). The restriction of the optimization is the designated.

Keywords: Brown rice, Response surface methodology(RSM), Rubber clearance, Round per minute (RPM), Peeling machine.

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656 Data Mining Applied to the Predictive Model of Triage System in Emergency Department

Authors: Wen-Tsann Lin, Yung-Tsan Jou, Yih-Chuan Wu, Yuan-Du Hsiao

Abstract:

The Emergency Department of a medical center in Taiwan cooperated to conduct the research. A predictive model of triage system is contracted from the contract procedure, selection of parameters to sample screening. 2,000 pieces of data needed for the patients is chosen randomly by the computer. After three categorizations of data mining (Multi-group Discriminant Analysis, Multinomial Logistic Regression, Back-propagation Neural Networks), it is found that Back-propagation Neural Networks can best distinguish the patients- extent of emergency, and the accuracy rate can reach to as high as 95.1%. The Back-propagation Neural Networks that has the highest accuracy rate is simulated into the triage acuity expert system in this research. Data mining applied to the predictive model of the triage acuity expert system can be updated regularly for both the improvement of the system and for education training, and will not be affected by subjective factors.

Keywords: Back-propagation Neural Networks, Data Mining, Emergency Department, Triage System.

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655 Climate Change in Albania and Its Effect on Cereal Yield

Authors: L. Basha, E. Gjika

Abstract:

This study is focused on analyzing climate change in Albania and its potential effects on cereal yields. Initially, monthly temperature and rainfalls in Albania were studied for the period 1960-2021. Climacteric variables are important variables when trying to model cereal yield behavior, especially when significant changes in weather conditions are observed. For this purpose, in the second part of the study, linear and nonlinear models explaining cereal yield are constructed for the same period, 1960-2021. The multiple linear regression analysis and lasso regression method are applied to the data between cereal yield and each independent variable: average temperature, average rainfall, fertilizer consumption, arable land, land under cereal production, and nitrous oxide emissions. In our regression model, heteroscedasticity is not observed, data follow a normal distribution, and there is a low correlation between factors, so we do not have the problem of multicollinearity. Machine learning methods, such as Random Forest (RF), are used to predict cereal yield responses to climacteric and other variables. RF showed high accuracy compared to the other statistical models in the prediction of cereal yield. We found that changes in average temperature negatively affect cereal yield. The coefficients of fertilizer consumption, arable land, and land under cereal production are positively affecting production. Our results show that the RF method is an effective and versatile machine-learning method for cereal yield prediction compared to the other two methods: multiple linear regression and lasso regression method.

Keywords: Cereal yield, climate change, machine learning, multiple regression model, random forest.

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654 Does the Adoption of IFRS Influence Earnings Management towards Small Positive Profits? Evidence from Emerging Markets

Authors: Sawcen Chebaane, Hakim Ben Othman

Abstract:

This paper investigates the effect of International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adoption on the frequency of earnings managements towards small positive profits. We focus on two emerging markets IFRS adopters: South Africa and Turkey. We tested our logistic regression using appropriate panelestimation techniques over a sample of 330 South African and 210 Turkish firm-year observations over the period 2002-2008. Our results document that mandatory adoption of IFRS is not associated with a reduction in earnings management towards small positive profits in emerging markets. These results contradict most of the previous findings of the studies conducted in developed countries. Based on the legal system factor, we compare the intensity of earnings management between a code law country (Turkey) and a common law country (South Africa) over the pre and post-adoption periods. Our findings show that the frequency of such earnings management practice increases significantly for the code law country.

Keywords: Civil law, common law, emerging markets, Mandatory IFRS adoption, small positive profits.

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653 Corporate Governance Practices and Audit Quality: An Empirical Study of the Listed Companies in Egypt

Authors: Mohamed Moustafa Soliman, Mohamed Abd Elsalam

Abstract:

Recent financial international scandals around the world have led to a number of investigations into the effectiveness of corporate governance practices and audit quality. Although evidence of corporate governance practices and audit quality exists from developed economies, very scanty studies have been conducted in Egypt where corporate governance is just evolving. Therefore, this study provides evidence on the effectiveness of corporate governance practices and audit quality from a developing country. The data for analysis are gathered from the top 50 most active companies in the Egyptian Stock Exchange, covering the three year period 2007-2009. Logistic regression was used in investigating the questions that were raised in the study. Findings from the study show that board independence; CEO duality and audit committees significantly have relationship with audit quality. The results also, indicate that institutional investor and managerial ownership have no significantly relationship with audit quality. Evidence also exist that size of the company; complexity and business leverage are important factors in audit quality for companies quoted on the Egypt Stock Exchange.

Keywords: Corporate governance, Boards of directors, corporate ownership, Audit Committees, Audit quality, and Egypt.

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652 Clustering Mixed Data Using Non-normal Regression Tree for Process Monitoring

Authors: Youngji Yoo, Cheong-Sool Park, Jun Seok Kim, Young-Hak Lee, Sung-Shick Kim, Jun-Geol Baek

Abstract:

In the semiconductor manufacturing process, large amounts of data are collected from various sensors of multiple facilities. The collected data from sensors have several different characteristics due to variables such as types of products, former processes and recipes. In general, Statistical Quality Control (SQC) methods assume the normality of the data to detect out-of-control states of processes. Although the collected data have different characteristics, using the data as inputs of SQC will increase variations of data, require wide control limits, and decrease performance to detect outof- control. Therefore, it is necessary to separate similar data groups from mixed data for more accurate process control. In the paper, we propose a regression tree using split algorithm based on Pearson distribution to handle non-normal distribution in parametric method. The regression tree finds similar properties of data from different variables. The experiments using real semiconductor manufacturing process data show improved performance in fault detecting ability.

Keywords: Semiconductor, non-normal mixed process data, clustering, Statistical Quality Control (SQC), regression tree, Pearson distribution system.

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651 Performance Comparison of Different Regression Methods for a Polymerization Process with Adaptive Sampling

Authors: Florin Leon, Silvia Curteanu

Abstract:

Developing complete mechanistic models for polymerization reactors is not easy, because complex reactions occur simultaneously; there is a large number of kinetic parameters involved and sometimes the chemical and physical phenomena for mixtures involving polymers are poorly understood. To overcome these difficulties, empirical models based on sampled data can be used instead, namely regression methods typical of machine learning field. They have the ability to learn the trends of a process without any knowledge about its particular physical and chemical laws. Therefore, they are useful for modeling complex processes, such as the free radical polymerization of methyl methacrylate achieved in a batch bulk process. The goal is to generate accurate predictions of monomer conversion, numerical average molecular weight and gravimetrical average molecular weight. This process is associated with non-linear gel and glass effects. For this purpose, an adaptive sampling technique is presented, which can select more samples around the regions where the values have a higher variation. Several machine learning methods are used for the modeling and their performance is compared: support vector machines, k-nearest neighbor, k-nearest neighbor and random forest, as well as an original algorithm, large margin nearest neighbor regression. The suggested method provides very good results compared to the other well-known regression algorithms.

Keywords: Adaptive sampling, batch bulk methyl methacrylate polymerization, large margin nearest neighbor regression, machine learning.

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650 Logistic and Its Importance in Turkish Food Sector and an Analysis of the Logistics Sector in Turkey

Authors: Şule Turhan, Özlem Turan

Abstract:

Permanence in the international markets for many global companies is about being known as having effective logistics which targets customer satisfaction management and lower costs. Under competitive conditions, the necessity of providing the products to customers quickly and on time for the companies which constantly aim to improve their profitability increased the strategic importance of the logistics concept. Food logistic is one of the most difficult areas in logistics. In the process from manufacturer to final consumer, quality and hygiene standards must be provided constantly. In food logistics, reliable and extensive service network has great importance and on time delivery is the target. Developing logistics industry provide the supply of foods in the country and the development of export markets more quickly and has an important role in providing added value to the country's economy. Turkey that creates a bridge between the east and the west is an attractive market for logistics companies. In this study, by examining both the place and the importance of logistics in Turkish food sector, recommendations will be made for the food industry.

Keywords: Logistics, Turkish food industry, competition, food industry.

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649 Rapid Study on Feature Extraction and Classification Models in Healthcare Applications

Authors: S. Sowmyayani

Abstract:

The advancement of computer-aided design helps the medical force and security force. Some applications include biometric recognition, elderly fall detection, face recognition, cancer recognition, tumor recognition, etc. This paper deals with different machine learning algorithms that are more generically used for any health care system. The most focused problems are classification and regression. With the rise of big data, machine learning has become particularly important for solving problems. Machine learning uses two types of techniques: supervised learning and unsupervised learning. The former trains a model on known input and output data and predicts future outputs. Classification and regression are supervised learning techniques. Unsupervised learning finds hidden patterns in input data. Clustering is one such unsupervised learning technique. The above-mentioned models are discussed briefly in this paper.

Keywords: Supervised learning, unsupervised learning, regression, neural network.

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648 Comparative Study in Dentinal Tubuli Occlusion Using Bioglass and Copper-Bromide Laser

Authors: Sun Woo Lee, Tae Bum Lee, Yoon Hwa Park, Yoo Jeong Kim

Abstract:

Cervical dentinal hypersensitivity (CDH) affects 8-30% of adults and nearly 85% of perio-treated patients. Various treatment schemes have been applied for treating CDH, among them being fluoride application, laser irradiation, and, recently, bioglass. The purpose of this study was to investigate the influence of bioglass, copper-bromide (Cu-Br) laser irradiation and their combination on dentinal tubule occlusion as a potential dentinal hypersensitivity treatment for CDH. 45 human dentin surfaces were organized into three equal groups: group A received Cu-Br laser only; group B received bioglass only; group C received bioglass followed by Cu-Br laser irradiation. Specimens were evaluated with regard to dentinal tubule occlusion under environmental scanning electron microscope. Treatment modality significantly affected dentinal tubule occlusion (p<0.001). Groups B and C scored higher dentinal tubule occlusion than group A. Binary logistic regression showed that bioglass application significantly (p<0.001) contributed to dentinal tubule occlusion, compared with other variables. Under the conditions used herein and within the limitations of this study, bioglass application, alone or combined with Cu-Br laser irradiation, is a superior method for producing dentinal tubule occlusion, and may lead to an effective treatment modality for CDH.

Keywords: Bioglass, Cu-Br laser, cervical dentinal hypersensitivity, dentinal tubule occlusion.

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647 Transient Population Dynamics of Phase Singularities in 2D Beeler-Reuter Model

Authors: Hidetoshi Konno, Akio Suzuki

Abstract:

The paper presented a transient population dynamics of phase singularities in 2D Beeler-Reuter model. Two stochastic modelings are examined: (i) the Master equation approach with the transition rate (i.e., λ(n, t) = λ(t)n and μ(n, t) = μ(t)n) and (ii) the nonlinear Langevin equation approach with a multiplicative noise. The exact general solution of the Master equation with arbitrary time-dependent transition rate is given. Then, the exact solution of the mean field equation for the nonlinear Langevin equation is also given. It is demonstrated that transient population dynamics is successfully identified by the generalized Logistic equation with fractional higher order nonlinear term. It is also demonstrated the necessity of introducing time-dependent transition rate in the master equation approach to incorporate the effect of nonlinearity.

Keywords: Transient population dynamics, Phase singularity, Birth-death process, Non-stationary Master equation, nonlinear Langevin equation, generalized Logistic equation.

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646 Modeling Oxygen-transfer by Multiple Plunging Jets using Support Vector Machines and Gaussian Process Regression Techniques

Authors: Surinder Deswal

Abstract:

The paper investigates the potential of support vector machines and Gaussian process based regression approaches to model the oxygen–transfer capacity from experimental data of multiple plunging jets oxygenation systems. The results suggest the utility of both the modeling techniques in the prediction of the overall volumetric oxygen transfer coefficient (KLa) from operational parameters of multiple plunging jets oxygenation system. The correlation coefficient root mean square error and coefficient of determination values of 0.971, 0.002 and 0.945 respectively were achieved by support vector machine in comparison to values of 0.960, 0.002 and 0.920 respectively achieved by Gaussian process regression. Further, the performances of both these regression approaches in predicting the overall volumetric oxygen transfer coefficient was compared with the empirical relationship for multiple plunging jets. A comparison of results suggests that support vector machines approach works well in comparison to both empirical relationship and Gaussian process approaches, and could successfully be employed in modeling oxygen-transfer.

Keywords: Oxygen-transfer, multiple plunging jets, support vector machines, Gaussian process.

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645 Health Monitoring of Power Transformers by Dissolved Gas Analysis using Regression Method and Study the Effect of Filtration on Oil

Authors: Anjali Chatterjee, Nirmal Kumar Roy

Abstract:

Economically transformers constitute one of the largest investments in a Power system. For this reason, transformer condition assessment and management is a high priority task. If a transformer fails, it would have a significant negative impact on revenue and service reliability. Monitoring the state of health of power transformers has traditionally been carried out using laboratory Dissolved Gas Analysis (DGA) tests performed at periodic intervals on the oil sample, collected from the transformers. DGA of transformer oil is the single best indicator of a transformer-s overall condition and is a universal practice today, which started somewhere in the 1960s. Failure can occur in a transformer due to different reasons. Some failures can be limited or prevented by maintenance. Oil filtration is one of the methods to remove the dissolve gases and prevent the deterioration of the oil. In this paper we analysis the DGA data by regression method and predict the gas concentration in the oil in the future. We bring about a comparative study of different traditional methods of regression and the errors generated out of their predictions. With the help of these data we can deduce the health of the transformer by finding the type of fault if it has occurred or will occur in future. Additional in this paper effect of filtration on the transformer health is highlight by calculating the probability of failure of a transformer with and without oil filtrating.

Keywords: Power Transformers, Dissolve gas Analysis, Regression method, Filtration, oil.

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644 Regression Analysis of Travel Indicators and Public Transport Usage in Urban Areas

Authors: M. Moeinaddini, Z. Asadi-Shekari, M. Zaly Shah, A. Hamzah

Abstract:

Currently, planners try to have more green travel options to decrease economic, social and environmental problems. Therefore, this study tries to find significant urban travel factors to be used to increase the usage of alternative urban travel modes. This paper attempts to identify the relationship between prominent urban mobility indicators and daily trips by public transport in 30 cities from various parts of the world. Different travel modes, infrastructures and cost indicators were evaluated in this research as mobility indicators. The results of multi-linear regression analysis indicate that there is a significant relationship between mobility indicators and the daily usage of public transport.

Keywords: Green travel modes, urban travel indicators, daily trips by public transport, multi-linear regression analysis.

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643 Phosphine Mortality Estimation for Simulation of Controlling Pest of Stored Grain: Lesser Grain Borer (Rhyzopertha dominica)

Authors: Mingren Shi, Michael Renton

Abstract:

There is a world-wide need for the development of sustainable management strategies to control pest infestation and the development of phosphine (PH3) resistance in lesser grain borer (Rhyzopertha dominica). Computer simulation models can provide a relatively fast, safe and inexpensive way to weigh the merits of various management options. However, the usefulness of simulation models relies on the accurate estimation of important model parameters, such as mortality. Concentration and time of exposure are both important in determining mortality in response to a toxic agent. Recent research indicated the existence of two resistance phenotypes in R. dominica in Australia, weak and strong, and revealed that the presence of resistance alleles at two loci confers strong resistance, thus motivating the construction of a two-locus model of resistance. Experimental data sets on purified pest strains, each corresponding to a single genotype of our two-locus model, were also available. Hence it became possible to explicitly include mortalities of the different genotypes in the model. In this paper we described how we used two generalized linear models (GLM), probit and logistic models, to fit the available experimental data sets. We used a direct algebraic approach generalized inverse matrix technique, rather than the traditional maximum likelihood estimation, to estimate the model parameters. The results show that both probit and logistic models fit the data sets well but the former is much better in terms of small least squares (numerical) errors. Meanwhile, the generalized inverse matrix technique achieved similar accuracy results to those from the maximum likelihood estimation, but is less time consuming and computationally demanding.

Keywords: mortality estimation, probit models, logistic model, generalized inverse matrix approach, pest control simulation

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642 A Resource Survey of Lateritic Soils and Impact Evaluation toward Community Members Living Nearby the Excavation Pits

Authors: Ratchasak Suvannatsiri

Abstract:

The objectives of the research are to find the basic engineering properties of lateritic soil and to predict the impact on community members who live nearby the excavation pits in the area of Amphur Pak Thor, Ratchaburi Province in the western area of Thailand. The research was conducted by collecting soil samples from four excavation pits for basic engineering properties, testing and collecting questionnaire data from 120 community members who live nearby the excavation pits, and applying statistical analysis. The results found that the basic engineering properties of lateritic soil can be classified into silt soil type which is cohesionless as the loess or collapsible soil which is not suitable to be used for a pavement structure for commuting highway because it could lead to structural and functional failure in the long run. In terms of opinion from community members toward the impact, the highest impact was on the dust from excavation activities. The prediction from the logistic regression in terms of impact on community members was at 84.32 which can be adapted and applied onto other areas with the same context as a guideline for risk prevention and risk communication since it could impact the infrastructures and also impact the health of community members.

Keywords: Lateritic soil, excavation pits, engineering properties, impact on community members

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641 Support Vector Regression for Retrieval of Soil Moisture Using Bistatic Scatterometer Data at X-Band

Authors: Dileep Kumar Gupta, Rajendra Prasad, Pradeep Kumar, Varun Narayan Mishra, Ajeet Kumar Vishwakarma, Prashant Kumar Srivastava

Abstract:

An approach was evaluated for the retrieval of soil moisture of bare soil surface using bistatic scatterometer data in the angular range of 200 to 700 at VV- and HH- polarization. The microwave data was acquired by specially designed X-band (10 GHz) bistatic scatterometer. The linear regression analysis was done between scattering coefficients and soil moisture content to select the suitable incidence angle for retrieval of soil moisture content. The 250 incidence angle was found more suitable. The support vector regression analysis was used to approximate the function described by the input output relationship between the scattering coefficient and corresponding measured values of the soil moisture content. The performance of support vector regression algorithm was evaluated by comparing the observed and the estimated soil moisture content by statistical performance indices %Bias, root mean squared error (RMSE) and Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE). The values of %Bias, root mean squared error (RMSE) and Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) were found 2.9451, 1.0986 and 0.9214 respectively at HHpolarization. At VV- polarization, the values of %Bias, root mean squared error (RMSE) and Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) were found 3.6186, 0.9373 and 0.9428 respectively.

Keywords: Bistatic scatterometer, soil moisture, support vector regression, RMSE, %Bias, NSE.

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640 The Maximum Likelihood Method of Random Coefficient Dynamic Regression Model

Authors: Autcha Araveeporn

Abstract:

The Random Coefficient Dynamic Regression (RCDR) model is to developed from Random Coefficient Autoregressive (RCA) model and Autoregressive (AR) model. The RCDR model is considered by adding exogenous variables to RCA model. In this paper, the concept of the Maximum Likelihood (ML) method is used to estimate the parameter of RCDR(1,1) model. Simulation results have shown the AIC and BIC criterion to compare the performance of the the RCDR(1,1) model. The variables as the stationary and weakly stationary data are good estimates where the exogenous variables are weakly stationary. However, the model selection indicated that variables are nonstationarity data based on the stationary data of the exogenous variables.

Keywords: Autoregressive, Maximum Likelihood Method, Nonstationarity, Random Coefficient Dynamic Regression, Stationary.

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639 Drivers of Land Degradation in Trays Ecosystem as Modulated under a Changing Climate: Case Study of Côte d'Ivoire

Authors: Kadio Valere R. Angaman, Birahim Bouna Niang

Abstract:

Land degradation is a serious problem in developing countries including Cote d’Ivoire, which has its economy focused on agriculture. It occurs in all kinds of ecosystems over the world. However, the drivers of land degradation vary from one region to another, and from one ecosystem to another. Thus, identifying these drivers is an essential prerequisite to develop and implement appropriate policies to reverse the trend of land degradation in the country, especially in the trays ecosystem. Using the binary logistic model with primary data obtained through 780 farmers surveyed, we analyze and identify the drivers of land degradation in the trays ecosystem. The descriptive statistics show that 52% of farmers interviewed have stated facing land degradation in their farmland. This high rate shows the extent of land degradation in this ecosystem. Also, the results obtained from the binary logit regression reveal that land degradation is significantly influenced by a set of variables such as sex, education, slope, erosion, pesticide, agricultural activity, deforestation, and temperature. The drivers identified are mostly local, as a result, the government must implement some policies and strategies that facilitate and incentive the adoption of sustainable land management practices by farmers to reverse the negative trend of land degradation.

Keywords: Drivers, land degradation, trays ecosystem, sustainable land management.

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638 A Novel Method for the Characterization of Synchronization and Coupling in Multichannel EEG and ECoG

Authors: Manfred Hartmann, Andreas Graef, Hannes Perko, Christoph Baumgartner, Tilmann Kluge

Abstract:

In this paper we introduce a novel method for the characterization of synchronziation and coupling effects in multivariate time series that can be used for the analysis of EEG or ECoG signals recorded during epileptic seizures. The method allows to visualize the spatio-temporal evolution of synchronization and coupling effects that are characteristic for epileptic seizures. Similar to other methods proposed for this purpose our method is based on a regression analysis. However, a more general definition of the regression together with an effective channel selection procedure allows to use the method even for time series that are highly correlated, which is commonly the case in EEG/ECoG recordings with large numbers of electrodes. The method was experimentally tested on ECoG recordings of epileptic seizures from patients with temporal lobe epilepsies. A comparision with the results from a independent visual inspection by clinical experts showed an excellent agreement with the patterns obtained with the proposed method.

Keywords: EEG, epilepsy, regression analysis, seizurepropagation.

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637 Gas Detection via Machine Learning

Authors: Walaa Khalaf, Calogero Pace, Manlio Gaudioso

Abstract:

We present an Electronic Nose (ENose), which is aimed at identifying the presence of one out of two gases, possibly detecting the presence of a mixture of the two. Estimation of the concentrations of the components is also performed for a volatile organic compound (VOC) constituted by methanol and acetone, for the ranges 40-400 and 22-220 ppm (parts-per-million), respectively. Our system contains 8 sensors, 5 of them being gas sensors (of the class TGS from FIGARO USA, INC., whose sensing element is a tin dioxide (SnO2) semiconductor), the remaining being a temperature sensor (LM35 from National Semiconductor Corporation), a humidity sensor (HIH–3610 from Honeywell), and a pressure sensor (XFAM from Fujikura Ltd.). Our integrated hardware–software system uses some machine learning principles and least square regression principle to identify at first a new gas sample, or a mixture, and then to estimate the concentrations. In particular we adopt a training model using the Support Vector Machine (SVM) approach with linear kernel to teach the system how discriminate among different gases. Then we apply another training model using the least square regression, to predict the concentrations. The experimental results demonstrate that the proposed multiclassification and regression scheme is effective in the identification of the tested VOCs of methanol and acetone with 96.61% correctness. The concentration prediction is obtained with 0.979 and 0.964 correlation coefficient for the predicted versus real concentrations of methanol and acetone, respectively.

Keywords: Electronic nose, Least square regression, Mixture ofgases, Support Vector Machine.

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636 Application of Feed-Forward Neural Networks Autoregressive Models in Gross Domestic Product Prediction

Authors: Ε. Giovanis

Abstract:

In this paper we present an autoregressive model with neural networks modeling and standard error backpropagation algorithm training optimization in order to predict the gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate of four countries. Specifically we propose a kind of weighted regression, which can be used for econometric purposes, where the initial inputs are multiplied by the neural networks final optimum weights from input-hidden layer after the training process. The forecasts are compared with those of the ordinary autoregressive model and we conclude that the proposed regression-s forecasting results outperform significant those of autoregressive model in the out-of-sample period. The idea behind this approach is to propose a parametric regression with weighted variables in order to test for the statistical significance and the magnitude of the estimated autoregressive coefficients and simultaneously to estimate the forecasts.

Keywords: Autoregressive model, Error back-propagation Feed-Forward neural networks, , Gross Domestic Product

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635 Motivated Support Vector Regression using Structural Prior Knowledge

Authors: Wei Zhang, Yao-Yu Li, Yi-Fan Zhu, Qun Li, Wei-Ping Wang

Abstract:

It-s known that incorporating prior knowledge into support vector regression (SVR) can help to improve the approximation performance. Most of researches are concerned with the incorporation of knowledge in the form of numerical relationships. Little work, however, has been done to incorporate the prior knowledge on the structural relationships among the variables (referred as to Structural Prior Knowledge, SPK). This paper explores the incorporation of SPK in SVR by constructing appropriate admissible support vector kernel (SV kernel) based on the properties of reproducing kernel (R.K). Three-levels specifications of SPK are studied with the corresponding sub-levels of prior knowledge that can be considered for the method. These include Hierarchical SPK (HSPK), Interactional SPK (ISPK) consisting of independence, global and local interaction, Functional SPK (FSPK) composed of exterior-FSPK and interior-FSPK. A convenient tool for describing the SPK, namely Description Matrix of SPK is introduced. Subsequently, a new SVR, namely Motivated Support Vector Regression (MSVR) whose structure is motivated in part by SPK, is proposed. Synthetic examples show that it is possible to incorporate a wide variety of SPK and helpful to improve the approximation performance in complex cases. The benefits of MSVR are finally shown on a real-life military application, Air-toground battle simulation, which shows great potential for MSVR to the complex military applications.

Keywords: admissible support vector kernel, reproducing kernel, structural prior knowledge, motivated support vector regression

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634 Motivated Support Vector Regression with Structural Prior Knowledge

Authors: Wei Zhang, Yao-Yu Li, Yi-Fan Zhu, Qun Li, Wei-Ping Wang

Abstract:

It-s known that incorporating prior knowledge into support vector regression (SVR) can help to improve the approximation performance. Most of researches are concerned with the incorporation of knowledge in form of numerical relationships. Little work, however, has been done to incorporate the prior knowledge on the structural relationships among the variables (referred as to Structural Prior Knowledge, SPK). This paper explores the incorporation of SPK in SVR by constructing appropriate admissible support vector kernel (SV kernel) based on the properties of reproducing kernel (R.K). Three-levels specifications of SPK are studies with the corresponding sub-levels of prior knowledge that can be considered for the method. These include Hierarchical SPK (HSPK), Interactional SPK (ISPK) consisting of independence, global and local interaction, Functional SPK (FSPK) composed of exterior-FSPK and interior-FSPK. A convenient tool for describing the SPK, namely Description Matrix of SPK is introduced. Subsequently, a new SVR, namely Motivated Support Vector Regression (MSVR) whose structure is motivated in part by SPK, is proposed. Synthetic examples show that it is possible to incorporate a wide variety of SPK and helpful to improve the approximation performance in complex cases. The benefits of MSVR are finally shown on a real-life military application, Air-toground battle simulation, which shows great potential for MSVR to the complex military applications.

Keywords: admissible support vector kernel, reproducing kernel, structural prior knowledge, motivated support vector regression

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633 An Exact Solution to Support Vector Mixture

Authors: Monjed Ezzeddinne, Nicolas Lefebvre, Régis Lengellé

Abstract:

This paper presents a new version of the SVM mixture algorithm initially proposed by Kwok for classification and regression problems. For both cases, a slight modification of the mixture model leads to a standard SVM training problem, to the existence of an exact solution and allows the direct use of well known decomposition and working set selection algorithms. Only the regression case is considered in this paper but classification has been addressed in a very similar way. This method has been successfully applied to engine pollutants emission modeling.

Keywords: Identification, Learning systems, Mixture ofExperts, Support Vector Machines.

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632 The Leaves of a Tree

Authors: Zhu Jiaming, Yu Mengna

Abstract:

In this article, models based on quantitative analysis, physical geometry and regression analysis are established, by using analytic hierarchy process analysis, fuzzy cluster analysis, fuzzy photographic and data fitting. The reasons of various leaf shapes among different species and the differences between the leaf shapes on same tree have been solved by using software, such as Eviews, VB and Matlab. We also successfully estimate the leaf mass of a tree and the correlation with the tree profile.

Keywords: Leaf shape; Mass; Fuzzy cluster; Regression analysis; Eviews; Matlab

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631 Estimating Bridge Deterioration for Small Data Sets Using Regression and Markov Models

Authors: Yina F. Muñoz, Alexander Paz, Hanns De La Fuente-Mella, Joaquin V. Fariña, Guilherme M. Sales

Abstract:

The primary approach for estimating bridge deterioration uses Markov-chain models and regression analysis. Traditional Markov models have problems in estimating the required transition probabilities when a small sample size is used. Often, reliable bridge data have not been taken over large periods, thus large data sets may not be available. This study presents an important change to the traditional approach by using the Small Data Method to estimate transition probabilities. The results illustrate that the Small Data Method and traditional approach both provide similar estimates; however, the former method provides results that are more conservative. That is, Small Data Method provided slightly lower than expected bridge condition ratings compared with the traditional approach. Considering that bridges are critical infrastructures, the Small Data Method, which uses more information and provides more conservative estimates, may be more appropriate when the available sample size is small. In addition, regression analysis was used to calculate bridge deterioration. Condition ratings were determined for bridge groups, and the best regression model was selected for each group. The results obtained were very similar to those obtained when using Markov chains; however, it is desirable to use more data for better results.

Keywords: Concrete bridges, deterioration, Markov chains, probability matrix.

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