Search results for: Linear Quadratic Model
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 8532

Search results for: Linear Quadratic Model

8262 The Approximate Solution of Linear Fuzzy Fredholm Integral Equations of the Second Kind by Using Iterative Interpolation

Authors: N. Parandin, M. A. Fariborzi Araghi

Abstract:

in this paper, we propose a numerical method for the approximate solution of fuzzy Fredholm functional integral equations of the second kind by using an iterative interpolation. For this purpose, we convert the linear fuzzy Fredholm integral equations to a crisp linear system of integral equations. The proposed method is illustrated by some fuzzy integral equations in numerical examples.

Keywords: Fuzzy function integral equations, Iterative method, Linear systems, Parametric form of fuzzy number.

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8261 Geometrically Non-Linear Axisymmetric Free Vibration Analysis of Functionally Graded Annular Plates

Authors: Boutahar Lhoucine, El Bikri Khalid, Benamar Rhali

Abstract:

In this paper, the non-linear free axisymmetric vibration of a thin annular plate made of functionally graded material (FGM) has been studied by using the energy method and a multimode approach. FGM properties vary continuously as well as non-homogeneity through the thickness direction of the plate. The theoretical model is based on the classical plate theory and the Von Kármán geometrical non-linearity assumptions. An approximation has been adopted in the present work consisting of neglecting the in-plane deformation in the formulation. Hamilton’s principle is used to derive the governing equation of motion. The problem is solved by a numerical iterative procedure in order to obtain more accurate results for vibration amplitudes up to 1.5 times the plate thickness. The numerical results are given for the first axisymmetric non-linear mode shape for a wide range of vibration amplitudes and they are presented either in tabular form or in graphical form to show the effect that the vibration amplitude and the variation in material properties have significant effects on the frequencies and the bending stresses in large amplitude vibration of the functionally graded annular plate.

Keywords: Non-linear vibrations, Annular plates, Large amplitudes, FGM.

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8260 Harmonic Pollution Caused by Non-Linear Load: Analysis and Identification

Authors: K. Khlifi, A. Haddouk, M. Hlaili, H. Mechergui

Abstract:

The present paper provides a detailed analysis of prior methods and approaches for non-linear load identification in residential buildings. The main goal of this analysis is to decipher the distorted signals and to estimate the harmonics influence on power systems. We have performed an analytical study of non-linear loads behavior in the residential environment. Simulations have been performed in order to evaluate the distorted rate of the current and follow his behavior. To complete this work, an instrumental platform has been realized to carry out practical tests on single-phase non-linear loads which illustrate the current consumption of some domestic appliances supplied with single-phase sinusoidal voltage. These non-linear loads have been processed and tracked in order to limit their influence on the power grid and to reduce the Joule effect losses. As a result, the study has allowed to identify responsible circuits of harmonic pollution.

Keywords: Distortion rate, harmonic analysis, harmonic pollution, non-linear load, power factor.

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8259 A New Method to Solve a Non Linear Differential System

Authors: Seifedine Kadry

Abstract:

In this article, our objective is the analysis of the resolution of non-linear differential systems by combining Newton and Continuation (N-C) method. The iterative numerical methods converge where the initial condition is chosen close to the exact solution. The question of choosing the initial condition is answered by N-C method.

Keywords: Continuation Method, Newton Method, Finite Difference Method, Numerical Analysis and Non-Linear partial Differential Equation.

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8258 Some Results on Parallel Alternating Two-stage Methods

Authors: Guangbin Wang, Xue Li

Abstract:

In this paper, we present parallel alternating two-stage methods for solving linear system Ax=b, where A is a symmetric positive definite matrix. And we give some convergence results of these methods for nonsingular linear system.

Keywords: alternating two-stage, convergence, linear system, parallel.

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8257 Verification and Application of Finite Element Model Developed for Flood Routing in Rivers

Authors: A. L. Qureshi, A. A. Mahessar, A. Baloch

Abstract:

Flood wave propagation in river channel flow can be enunciated by nonlinear equations of motion for unsteady flow. It is difficult to find analytical solution of these non-linear equations. Hence, in this paper verification of the finite element model has been carried out against available numerical predictions and field data. The results of the model indicate a good matching with both Preissmann scheme and HEC-RAS model for a river reach of 29km at both sites (15km from upstream and at downstream end) for discharge hydrographs. It also has an agreeable comparison with the Preissemann scheme for the flow depth (stage) hydrographs. The proposed model has also been applying to forecast daily discharges at 400km downstream in the Indus River from Sukkur barrage of Sindh, Pakistan, which demonstrates accurate model predictions with observed the daily discharges. Hence, this model may be utilized for flood warnings in advance.

Keywords: Finite Element Method, Flood Forecasting, HEC-RAS, Indus river.

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8256 Second Order Statistics of Dynamic Response of Structures Using Gamma Distributed Damping Parameters

Authors: B. Chemali, B. Tiliouine

Abstract:

This article presents the main results of a numerical investigation on the uncertainty of dynamic response of structures with statistically correlated random damping Gamma distributed. A computational method based on a Linear Statistical Model (LSM) is implemented to predict second order statistics for the response of a typical industrial building structure. The significance of random damping with correlated parameters and its implications on the sensitivity of structural peak response in the neighborhood of a resonant frequency are discussed in light of considerable ranges of damping uncertainties and correlation coefficients. The results are compared to those generated using Monte Carlo simulation techniques. The numerical results obtained show the importance of damping uncertainty and statistical correlation of damping coefficients when obtaining accurate probabilistic estimates of dynamic response of structures. Furthermore, the effectiveness of the LSM model to efficiently predict uncertainty propagation for structural dynamic problems with correlated damping parameters is demonstrated.

Keywords: Correlated random damping, linear statistical model, Monte Carlo simulation, uncertainty of dynamic response.

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8255 Key Frame Based Video Summarization via Dependency Optimization

Authors: Janya Sainui

Abstract:

As a rapid growth of digital videos and data communications, video summarization that provides a shorter version of the video for fast video browsing and retrieval is necessary. Key frame extraction is one of the mechanisms to generate video summary. In general, the extracted key frames should both represent the entire video content and contain minimum redundancy. However, most of the existing approaches heuristically select key frames; hence, the selected key frames may not be the most different frames and/or not cover the entire content of a video. In this paper, we propose a method of video summarization which provides the reasonable objective functions for selecting key frames. In particular, we apply a statistical dependency measure called quadratic mutual informaion as our objective functions for maximizing the coverage of the entire video content as well as minimizing the redundancy among selected key frames. The proposed key frame extraction algorithm finds key frames as an optimization problem. Through experiments, we demonstrate the success of the proposed video summarization approach that produces video summary with better coverage of the entire video content while less redundancy among key frames comparing to the state-of-the-art approaches.

Keywords: Video summarization, key frame extraction, dependency measure, quadratic mutual information, optimization.

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8254 Predominance of Teaching Models Used by Math Teachers in Secondary Education

Authors: Verónica Diaz Quezada

Abstract:

This research examines the teaching models used by secondary math teachers when teaching logarithmic, quadratic and exponential functions. For this, descriptive case studies have been carried out on 5 secondary teachers. These teachers have been chosen from 3 scientific-humanistic and technical schools, in Chile. Data have been obtained through non-participant class observation and the application of a questionnaire and a rubric to teachers. According to the results, the didactic model that prevails is the one that starts with an interactive strategy, moves to a more content-based structure, and ends with a reinforcement stage. Nonetheless, there is always influence from teachers, their methods, and the group of students.

Keywords: Teaching models, math teachers, functions, secondary education.

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8253 A TFETI Domain Decompositon Solver for Von Mises Elastoplasticity Model with Combination of Linear Isotropic-Kinematic Hardening

Authors: Martin Cermak, Stanislav Sysala

Abstract:

In this paper we present the efficient parallel implementation of elastoplastic problems based on the TFETI (Total Finite Element Tearing and Interconnecting) domain decomposition method. This approach allow us to use parallel solution and compute this nonlinear problem on the supercomputers and decrease the solution time and compute problems with millions of DOFs. In our approach we consider an associated elastoplastic model with the von Mises plastic criterion and the combination of linear isotropic-kinematic hardening law. This model is discretized by the implicit Euler method in time and by the finite element method in space. We consider the system of nonlinear equations with a strongly semismooth and strongly monotone operator. The semismooth Newton method is applied to solve this nonlinear system. Corresponding linearized problems arising in the Newton iterations are solved in parallel by the above mentioned TFETI. The implementation of this problem is realized in our in-house MatSol packages developed in MatLab.

Keywords: Isotropic-kinematic hardening, TFETI, domain decomposition, parallel solution.

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8252 Intelligent Automatic Generation Control of Two Area Interconnected Power System using Hybrid Neuro Fuzzy Controller

Authors: Sathans, A. Swarup

Abstract:

This paper presents the development and application of an adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) based intelligent hybrid neuro fuzzy controller for automatic generation control (AGC) of two-area interconnected thermal power system with reheat non linearity. The dynamic response of the system has been studied for 1% step load perturbation in area-1. The performance of the proposed neuro fuzzy controller is compared against conventional proportional-integral (PI) controller, state feedback linear quadratic regulator (LQR) controller and fuzzy gain scheduled proportionalintegral (FGSPI) controller. Comparative analysis demonstrates that the proposed intelligent neuro fuzzy controller is the most effective of all in improving the transients of frequency and tie-line power deviations against small step load disturbances. Simulations have been performed using Matlab®.

Keywords: Automatic generation control, ANFIS, LQR, Hybrid neuro fuzzy controller

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8251 Software Effort Estimation Using Soft Computing Techniques

Authors: Parvinder S. Sandhu, Porush Bassi, Amanpreet Singh Brar

Abstract:

Various models have been derived by studying large number of completed software projects from various organizations and applications to explore how project sizes mapped into project effort. But, still there is a need to prediction accuracy of the models. As Neuro-fuzzy based system is able to approximate the non-linear function with more precision. So, Neuro-Fuzzy system is used as a soft computing approach to generate model by formulating the relationship based on its training. In this paper, Neuro-Fuzzy technique is used for software estimation modeling of on NASA software project data and performance of the developed models are compared with the Halstead, Walston-Felix, Bailey-Basili and Doty Models mentioned in the literature.

Keywords: Effort Estimation, Neural-Fuzzy Model, Halstead Model, Walston-Felix Model, Bailey-Basili Model, Doty Model.

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8250 Meta Model for Optimum Design Objective Function of Steel Frames Subjected to Seismic Loads

Authors: Salah R. Al Zaidee, Ali S. Mahdi

Abstract:

Except for simple problems of statically determinate structures, optimum design problems in structural engineering have implicit objective functions where structural analysis and design are essential within each searching loop. With these implicit functions, the structural engineer is usually enforced to write his/her own computer code for analysis, design, and searching for optimum design among many feasible candidates and cannot take advantage of available software for structural analysis, design, and searching for the optimum solution. The meta-model is a regression model used to transform an implicit objective function into objective one and leads in turn to decouple the structural analysis and design processes from the optimum searching process. With the meta-model, well-known software for structural analysis and design can be used in sequence with optimum searching software. In this paper, the meta-model has been used to develop an explicit objective function for plane steel frames subjected to dead, live, and seismic forces. Frame topology is assumed as predefined based on architectural and functional requirements. Columns and beams sections and different connections details are the main design variables in this study. Columns and beams are grouped to reduce the number of design variables and to make the problem similar to that adopted in engineering practice. Data for the implicit objective function have been generated based on analysis and assessment for many design proposals with CSI SAP software. These data have been used later in SPSS software to develop a pure quadratic nonlinear regression model for the explicit objective function. Good correlations with a coefficient, R2, in the range from 0.88 to 0.99 have been noted between the original implicit functions and the corresponding explicit functions generated with meta-model.

Keywords: Meta-modal, objective function, steel frames, seismic analysis, design.

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8249 Bifurcations for a FitzHugh-Nagumo Model with Time Delays

Authors: Changjin Xu, Peiluan Li

Abstract:

In this paper, a FitzHugh-Nagumo model with time delays is investigated. The linear stability of the equilibrium and the existence of Hopf bifurcation with delay τ is investigated. By applying Nyquist criterion, the length of delay is estimated for which stability continues to hold. Numerical simulations for justifying the theoretical results are illustrated. Finally, main conclusions are given.

Keywords: FitzHugh-Nagumo model, Time delay, Stability, Hopf bifurcation.

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8248 Statistical Optimization of Process Variables for Direct Fermentation of 226 White Rose Tapioca Stem to Ethanol by Fusarium oxysporum

Authors: A. Magesh, B. Preetha, T. Viruthagiri

Abstract:

Direct fermentation of 226 white rose tapioca stem to ethanol by Fusarium oxysporum was studied in a batch reactor. Fermentation of ethanol can be achieved by sequential pretreatment using dilute acid and dilute alkali solutions using 100 mesh tapioca stem particles. The quantitative effects of substrate concentration, pH and temperature on ethanol concentration were optimized using a full factorial central composite design experiment. The optimum process conditions were then obtained using response surface methodology. The quadratic model indicated that substrate concentration of 33g/l, pH 5.52 and a temperature of 30.13oC were found to be optimum for maximum ethanol concentration of 8.64g/l. The predicted optimum process conditions obtained using response surface methodology was verified through confirmatory experiments. Leudeking-piret model was used to study the product formation kinetics for the production of ethanol and the model parameters were evaluated using experimental data.

Keywords: Fusarium oxysporum, Lignocellulosic biomass, Product formation kinetics, Statistical experimental design

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8247 The Stability of Almost n-multiplicative Maps in Fuzzy Normed Spaces

Authors: E. Ansari-Piri, N. Eghbali

Abstract:

Let A and B be two linear algebras. A linear map ϕ : A → B is called an n-homomorphism if ϕ(a1...an) = ϕ(a1)...ϕ(an) for all a1, ..., an ∈ A. In this note we have a verification on the behavior of almost n-multiplicative linear maps with n > 2 in the fuzzy normed spaces

Keywords: Almost multiplicative maps, n-homomorphism maps, almost n-multiplicative maps, fuzzy normed space, stability.

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8246 Electricity Load Modeling: An Application to Italian Market

Authors: Giovanni Masala, Stefania Marica

Abstract:

Forecasting electricity load plays a crucial role regards decision making and planning for economical purposes. Besides, in the light of the recent privatization and deregulation of the power industry, the forecasting of future electricity load turned out to be a very challenging problem. Empirical data about electricity load highlights a clear seasonal behavior (higher load during the winter season), which is partly due to climatic effects. We also emphasize the presence of load periodicity at a weekly basis (electricity load is usually lower on weekends or holidays) and at daily basis (electricity load is clearly influenced by the hour). Finally, a long-term trend may depend on the general economic situation (for example, industrial production affects electricity load). All these features must be captured by the model. The purpose of this paper is then to build an hourly electricity load model. The deterministic component of the model requires non-linear regression and Fourier series while we will investigate the stochastic component through econometrical tools. The calibration of the parameters’ model will be performed by using data coming from the Italian market in a 6 year period (2007- 2012). Then, we will perform a Monte Carlo simulation in order to compare the simulated data respect to the real data (both in-sample and out-of-sample inspection). The reliability of the model will be deduced thanks to standard tests which highlight a good fitting of the simulated values.

Keywords: ARMA-GARCH process, electricity load, fitting tests, Fourier series, Monte Carlo simulation, non-linear regression.

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8245 Switching Rule for the Exponential Stability and Stabilization of Switched Linear Systems with Interval Time-varying Delays

Authors: Kreangkri Ratchagit

Abstract:

This paper is concerned with exponential stability and stabilization of switched linear systems with interval time-varying delays. The time delay is any continuous function belonging to a given interval, in which the lower bound of delay is not restricted to zero. By constructing a suitable augmented Lyapunov-Krasovskii functional combined with Leibniz-Newton-s formula, a switching rule for the exponential stability and stabilization of switched linear systems with interval time-varying delays and new delay-dependent sufficient conditions for the exponential stability and stabilization of the systems are first established in terms of LMIs. Numerical examples are included to illustrate the effectiveness of the results.

Keywords: Switching design, exponential stability and stabilization, switched linear systems, interval delay, Lyapunov function, linear matrix inequalities.

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8244 Model Order Reduction for Frequency Response and Effect of Order of Method for Matching Condition

Authors: Aref Ghafouri, Mohammad Javad Mollakazemi, Farhad Asadi

Abstract:

In this paper, model order reduction method is used for approximation in linear and nonlinearity aspects in some experimental data. This method can be used for obtaining offline reduced model for approximation of experimental data and can produce and follow the data and order of system and also it can match to experimental data in some frequency ratios. In this study, the method is compared in different experimental data and influence of choosing of order of the model reduction for obtaining the best and sufficient matching condition for following the data is investigated in format of imaginary and reality part of the frequency response curve and finally the effect and important parameter of number of order reduction in nonlinear experimental data is explained further.

Keywords: Frequency response, Order of model reduction, frequency matching condition.

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8243 Convergence Analysis of the Generalized Alternating Two-Stage Method

Authors: Guangbin Wang, Liangliang Li, Fuping Tan

Abstract:

In this paper, we give the generalized alternating twostage method in which the inner iterations are accomplished by a generalized alternating method. And we present convergence results of the method for solving nonsingular linear systems when the coefficient matrix of the linear system is a monotone matrix or an H-matrix.

Keywords: Generalized alternating two-stage method, linear system, convergence.

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8242 Implicit Eulerian Fluid-Structure Interaction Method for the Modeling of Highly Deformable Elastic Membranes

Authors: Aymen Laadhari, Gábor Székely

Abstract:

This paper is concerned with the development of a fully implicit and purely Eulerian fluid-structure interaction method tailored for the modeling of the large deformations of elastic membranes in a surrounding Newtonian fluid. We consider a simplified model for the mechanical properties of the membrane, in which the surface strain energy depends on the membrane stretching. The fully Eulerian description is based on the advection of a modified surface tension tensor, and the deformations of the membrane are tracked using a level set strategy. The resulting nonlinear problem is solved by a Newton-Raphson method, featuring a quadratic convergence behavior. A monolithic solver is implemented, and we report several numerical experiments aimed at model validation and illustrating the accuracy of the presented method. We show that stability is maintained for significantly larger time steps.

Keywords: Fluid-membrane interaction, stretching, Eulerian, finite element method, Newton, implicit.

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8241 Stability of a Special Class of Switched Positive Systems

Authors: Xiuyong Ding, Lan Shu, Xiu Liu

Abstract:

This paper is concerned with the existence of a linear copositive Lyapunov function(LCLF) for a special class of switched positive linear systems(SPLSs) composed of continuousand discrete-time subsystems. Firstly, by using system matrices, we construct a special kind of matrices in appropriate manner. Secondly, our results reveal that the Hurwitz stability of these matrices is equivalent to the existence of a common LCLF for arbitrary finite sets composed of continuous- and discrete-time positive linear timeinvariant( LTI) systems. Finally, a simple example is provided to illustrate the implication of our results.

Keywords: Linear co-positive Lyapunov functions, positive systems, switched systems.

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8240 Formant Tracking Linear Prediction Model using HMMs for Noisy Speech Processing

Authors: Zaineb Ben Messaoud, Dorra Gargouri, Saida Zribi, Ahmed Ben Hamida

Abstract:

This paper presents a formant-tracking linear prediction (FTLP) model for speech processing in noise. The main focus of this work is the detection of formant trajectory based on Hidden Markov Models (HMM), for improved formant estimation in noise. The approach proposed in this paper provides a systematic framework for modelling and utilization of a time- sequence of peaks which satisfies continuity constraints on parameter; the within peaks are modelled by the LP parameters. The formant tracking LP model estimation is composed of three stages: (1) a pre-cleaning multi-band spectral subtraction stage to reduce the effect of residue noise on formants (2) estimation stage where an initial estimate of the LP model of speech for each frame is obtained (3) a formant classification using probability models of formants and Viterbi-decoders. The evaluation results for the estimation of the formant tracking LP model tested in Gaussian white noise background, demonstrate that the proposed combination of the initial noise reduction stage with formant tracking and LPC variable order analysis, results in a significant reduction in errors and distortions. The performance was evaluated with noisy natual vowels extracted from international french and English vocabulary speech signals at SNR value of 10dB. In each case, the estimated formants are compared to reference formants.

Keywords: Formants Estimation, HMM, Multi Band Spectral Subtraction, Variable order LPC coding, White Gauusien Noise.

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8239 Exponentiated Transmuted Weibull Distribution A Generalization of the Weibull Distribution

Authors: Abd El Hady N. Ebraheim

Abstract:

This paper introduces a new generalization of the two parameter Weibull distribution. To this end, the quadratic rank transmutation map has been used. This new distribution is named exponentiated transmuted Weibull (ETW) distribution. The ETW distribution has the advantage of being capable of modeling various shapes of aging and failure criteria. Furthermore, eleven lifetime distributions such as the Weibull, exponentiated Weibull, Rayleigh and exponential distributions, among others follow as special cases. The properties of the new model are discussed and the maximum likelihood estimation is used to estimate the parameters. Explicit expressions are derived for the quantiles. The moments of the distribution are derived, and the order statistics are examined.

Keywords: Exponentiated, Inversion Method, Maximum Likelihood Estimation, Transmutation Map.

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8238 Some Computational Results on MPI Parallel Implementation of Dense Simplex Method

Authors: El-Said Badr, Mahmoud Moussa, Konstantinos Paparrizos, Nikolaos Samaras, Angelo Sifaleras

Abstract:

There are two major variants of the Simplex Algorithm: the revised method and the standard, or tableau method. Today, all serious implementations are based on the revised method because it is more efficient for sparse linear programming problems. Moreover, there are a number of applications that lead to dense linear problems so our aim in this paper is to present some computational results on parallel implementation of dense Simplex Method. Our implementation is implemented on a SMP cluster using C programming language and the Message Passing Interface MPI. Preliminary computational results on randomly generated dense linear programs support our results.

Keywords: Linear Programming, MPI, Parallel Implementation, Simplex Algorithm.

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8237 On the Efficiency and Robustness of Commingle Wiener and Lévy Driven Processes for Vasciek Model

Authors: Rasaki O. Olanrewaju

Abstract:

The driven processes of Wiener and Lévy are known self-standing Gaussian-Markov processes for fitting non-linear dynamical Vasciek model. In this paper, a coincidental Gaussian density stationarity condition and autocorrelation function of the two driven processes were established. This led to the conflation of Wiener and Lévy processes so as to investigate the efficiency of estimates incorporated into the one-dimensional Vasciek model that was estimated via the Maximum Likelihood (ML) technique. The conditional laws of drift, diffusion and stationarity process was ascertained for the individual Wiener and Lévy processes as well as the commingle of the two processes for a fixed effect and Autoregressive like Vasciek model when subjected to financial series; exchange rate of Naira-CFA Franc. In addition, the model performance error of the sub-merged driven process was miniature compared to the self-standing driven process of Wiener and Lévy.

Keywords: Wiener process, Lévy process, Vasciek model, drift, diffusion, Gaussian density stationary.

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8236 Free Vibration Analysis of Functionally Graded Pretwisted Plate in Thermal Environment Using Finite Element Method

Authors: S. Parida, S. C. Mohanty

Abstract:

The free vibration behavior of thick pretwisted cantilevered functionally graded material (FGM) plate subjected to the thermal environment is investigated numerically in the present paper. A mathematical model is developed in the framework of higher order shear deformation theory (HOST) with C0 finite element formulation i.e. independent displacement and rotations. The material properties are assumed to be temperature dependent and vary continuously through the thickness based on the volume fraction exponent in simple power rule. The finite element model has been discretized into eight node quadratic serendipity elements with node wise seven degrees of freedom. The effect of plate geometry, temperature field, material composition, and the modal analysis on the vibrational characteristics is examined. Finally, the results are verified by comparing with those available in literature.

Keywords: FGM, pretwisted plate, thermal environment, HOST, simple power law.

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8235 A Mathematical Model Approach Regarding the Children’s Height Development with Fractional Calculus

Authors: Nisa Özge Önal, Kamil Karaçuha, Göksu Hazar Erdinç, Banu Bahar Karaçuha, Ertuğrul Karaçuha

Abstract:

The study aims to use a mathematical approach with the fractional calculus which is developed to have the ability to continuously analyze the factors related to the children’s height development. Until now, tracking the development of the child is getting more important and meaningful. Knowing and determining the factors related to the physical development of the child any desired time would provide better, reliable and accurate results for childcare. In this frame, 7 groups for height percentile curve (3th, 10th, 25th, 50th, 75th, 90th, and 97th) of Turkey are used. By using discrete height data of 0-18 years old children and the least squares method, a continuous curve is developed valid for any time interval. By doing so, in any desired instant, it is possible to find the percentage and location of the child in Percentage Chart. Here, with the help of the fractional calculus theory, a mathematical model is developed. The outcomes of the proposed approach are quite promising compared to the linear and the polynomial method. The approach also yields to predict the expected values of children in the sense of height.

Keywords: Children growth percentile, children physical development, fractional calculus, linear and polynomial model.

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8234 Order Reduction of Linear Dynamic Systems using Stability Equation Method and GA

Authors: G. Parmar, R. Prasad, S. Mukherjee

Abstract:

The authors present an algorithm for order reduction of linear dynamic systems using the combined advantages of stability equation method and the error minimization by Genetic algorithm. The denominator of the reduced order model is obtained by the stability equation method and the numerator terms of the lower order transfer function are determined by minimizing the integral square error between the transient responses of original and reduced order models using Genetic algorithm. The reduction procedure is simple and computer oriented. It is shown that the algorithm has several advantages, e.g. the reduced order models retain the steady-state value and stability of the original system. The proposed algorithm has also been extended for the order reduction of linear multivariable systems. Two numerical examples are solved to illustrate the superiority of the algorithm over some existing ones including one example of multivariable system.

Keywords: Genetic algorithm, Integral square error, Orderreduction, Stability equation method.

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8233 Climate Change in Albania and Its Effect on Cereal Yield

Authors: L. Basha, E. Gjika

Abstract:

This study is focused on analyzing climate change in Albania and its potential effects on cereal yields. Initially, monthly temperature and rainfalls in Albania were studied for the period 1960-2021. Climacteric variables are important variables when trying to model cereal yield behavior, especially when significant changes in weather conditions are observed. For this purpose, in the second part of the study, linear and nonlinear models explaining cereal yield are constructed for the same period, 1960-2021. The multiple linear regression analysis and lasso regression method are applied to the data between cereal yield and each independent variable: average temperature, average rainfall, fertilizer consumption, arable land, land under cereal production, and nitrous oxide emissions. In our regression model, heteroscedasticity is not observed, data follow a normal distribution, and there is a low correlation between factors, so we do not have the problem of multicollinearity. Machine learning methods, such as Random Forest (RF), are used to predict cereal yield responses to climacteric and other variables. RF showed high accuracy compared to the other statistical models in the prediction of cereal yield. We found that changes in average temperature negatively affect cereal yield. The coefficients of fertilizer consumption, arable land, and land under cereal production are positively affecting production. Our results show that the RF method is an effective and versatile machine-learning method for cereal yield prediction compared to the other two methods: multiple linear regression and lasso regression method.

Keywords: Cereal yield, climate change, machine learning, multiple regression model, random forest.

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