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Authors: Katsumi Hirata

Abstract:

Certain systems can function well only if they recognize the sound environment as humans do. In this research, we focus on sound classification by adopting a convolutional neural network and aim to develop a method that automatically classifies various environmental sounds. Although the neural network is a powerful technique, the performance depends on the type of input data. Therefore, we propose an approach via a slice bispectrogram, which is a third-order spectrogram and is a slice version of the amplitude for the short-time bispectrum. This paper explains the slice bispectrogram and discusses the effectiveness of the derived method by evaluating the experimental results using the ESC‑50 sound dataset. As a result, the proposed scheme gives high accuracy and stability. Furthermore, some relationship between the accuracy and non-Gaussianity of sound signals was confirmed.

Keywords: Bispectrum, convolutional neural network, environmental sound, slice bispectrogram, spectrogram.

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Authors: S. Sowmyayani, P. Arockia Jansi Rani

Abstract:

Fall detection is one of the challenging problems in elderly care system. The objective of this paper is to identify falls in elderly care system. In this paper, an efficient fall detection method is proposed to identify falls using correlation factor and Motion History Image (MHI). The proposed method is tested on URF (University of Rzeszow Fall detection) dataset and evaluated with some efficient measures like sensitivity, specificity, precision and classification accuracy. It is compared with other recent methods. The experimental results substantially proved that the proposed method achieves 1.5% higher sensitivity when compared to other methods.

Keywords: Pearson correlation coefficient, motion history image, human shape identification.

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Authors: Dharmveer Singh Rajput , P. K. Singh, Mahua Bhattacharya

Abstract:

Clustering in high dimensional space is a difficult problem which is recurrent in many fields of science and engineering, e.g., bioinformatics, image processing, pattern reorganization and data mining. In high dimensional space some of the dimensions are likely to be irrelevant, thus hiding the possible clustering. In very high dimensions it is common for all the objects in a dataset to be nearly equidistant from each other, completely masking the clusters. Hence, performance of the clustering algorithm decreases. In this paper, we propose an algorithmic framework which combines the (reduct) concept of rough set theory with the k-means algorithm to remove the irrelevant dimensions in a high dimensional space and obtain appropriate clusters. Our experiment on test data shows that this framework increases efficiency of the clustering process and accuracy of the results.

Keywords: High dimensional clustering, sub-space, k-means, rough set, discernibility matrix.

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Authors: Axel Panning, Robert Niese, Ayoub Al-Hamadi, Bernd Michaelis

Abstract:

The segmentation of mouth and lips is a fundamental problem in facial image analyisis. In this paper we propose a method for lip segmentation based on rg-color histogram. Statistical analysis shows, using the rg-color-space is optimal for this purpose of a pure color based segmentation. Initially a rough adaptive threshold selects a histogram region, that assures that all pixels in that region are skin pixels. Based on that pixels we build a gaussian model which represents the skin pixels distribution and is utilized to obtain a refined, optimal threshold. We are not incorporating shape or edge information. In experiments we show the performance of our lip pixel segmentation method compared to the ground truth of our dataset and a conventional watershed algorithm.

Keywords: Feature extraction, Segmentation, Image processing, Application

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Authors: Caihong Sun, Xizi Zhang

Abstract:

Rating prediction is an important problem for recommender systems. The task is to predict the rating for an item that a user would give. Most of the existing algorithms for the task ignore the effect of negative ratings rated by users on items, but the negative ratings have a significant impact on users’ purchasing decisions in practice. In this paper, we present a rating prediction algorithm based on factorization machines that consider the effect of negative ratings inspired by Loss Aversion theory. The aim of this paper is to develop a concave and a convex negative disgust function to evaluate the negative ratings respectively. Experiments are conducted on MovieLens dataset. The experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed methods by comparing with other four the state-of-the-art approaches. The negative ratings showed much importance in the accuracy of ratings predictions.

Keywords: Factorization machines, feature engineering, negative ratings, recommendation systems.

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Authors: Chein-Shung Hwang, Ruei-Siang Fong

Abstract:

User-based Collaborative filtering (CF), one of the most prevailing and efficient recommendation techniques, provides personalized recommendations to users based on the opinions of other users. Although the CF technique has been successfully applied in various applications, it suffers from serious sparsity problems. The cloud-model approach addresses the sparsity problems by constructing the user-s global preference represented by a cloud eigenvector. The user-based CF approach works well with dense datasets while the cloud-model CF approach has a greater performance when the dataset is sparse. In this paper, we present a hybrid approach that integrates the predictions from both the user-based CF and the cloud-model CF approaches. The experimental results show that the proposed hybrid approach can ameliorate the sparsity problem and provide an improved prediction quality.

Keywords: Cloud model, Collaborative filtering, Hybridrecommender system

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Authors: Safaa R. Amer

Abstract:

Missing data yields many analysis challenges. In case of complex survey design, in addition to dealing with missing data, researchers need to account for the sampling design to achieve useful inferences. Methods for incorporating sampling weights in neural network imputation were investigated to account for complex survey designs. An estimate of variance to account for the imputation uncertainty as well as the sampling design using neural networks will be provided. A simulation study was conducted to compare estimation results based on complete case analysis, multiple imputation using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo, and neural network imputation. Furthermore, a public-use dataset was used as an example to illustrate neural networks imputation under a complex survey design

Keywords: Complex survey, estimate, imputation, neural networks, variance.

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Authors: J. K. Alhassan, B. Attah, S. Misra

Abstract:

Human beings have the ability to make logical decisions. Although human decision - making is often optimal, it is insufficient when huge amount of data is to be classified. Medical dataset is a vital ingredient used in predicting patient’s health condition. In other to have the best prediction, there calls for most suitable machine learning algorithms. This work compared the performance of Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and Decision Tree Algorithms (DTA) as regards to some performance metrics using diabetes data. WEKA software was used for the implementation of the algorithms. Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) and Radial Basis Function (RBF) were the two algorithms used for ANN, while RegTree and LADTree algorithms were the DTA models used. From the results obtained, DTA performed better than ANN. The Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) of MLP is 0.3913 that of RBF is 0.3625, that of RepTree is 0.3174 and that of LADTree is 0.3206 respectively.

Keywords: Artificial neural network, classification, decision tree, diabetes mellitus.

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Authors: Sh. Minapoor, S. Ajeli

Abstract:

Non-crimp three-dimensional (3D) orthogonal carbon fabrics are one of the useful textiles reinforcements in composites. In this paper, flexural and bending properties of a carbon non-crimp 3D orthogonal woven reinforcement are experimentally investigated. The present study is focused on the understanding and measurement of the main bending parameters including flexural stress, strain, and modulus. For this purpose, the three-point bending test method is used and the load-displacement curves are analyzed. The influence of some weave's parameters such as yarn type, geometry of structure, and fiber volume fraction on bending behavior of non-crimp 3D orthogonal carbon fabric is investigated. The obtained results also represent a dataset for the simulation of flexural behavior of non-crimp 3D orthogonal weave carbon composite reinforcement.

Keywords: Non-crimp 3D orthogonal weave, carbon composite reinforcement, flexural behavior, three-point bending.

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Authors: N. Ghatwary, A. Ahmed, H. Jalab

Abstract:

In this paper, an approach for the liver tumor detection in computed tomography (CT) images is represented. The detection process is based on classifying the features of target liver cell to either tumor or non-tumor. Fractional differential (FD) is applied for enhancement of Liver CT images, with the aim of enhancing texture and edge features. Later on, a fusion method is applied to merge between the various enhanced images and produce a variety of feature improvement, which will increase the accuracy of classification. Each image is divided into NxN non-overlapping blocks, to extract the desired features. Support vector machines (SVM) classifier is trained later on a supplied dataset different from the tested one. Finally, the block cells are identified whether they are classified as tumor or not. Our approach is validated on a group of patients’ CT liver tumor datasets. The experiment results demonstrated the efficiency of detection in the proposed technique.

Keywords: Fractional differential (FD), Computed Tomography (CT), fusion.

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Authors: M. Ben Slimene, M.-S. Ouali

Abstract:

Asset management of urban infrastructures faces a multitude of challenges that need to be overcome to obtain a reliable measurement of performances. Predicting the performance of slowly aging systems is one of those challenges, which helps the asset manager to investigate specific failure modes and to undertake the appropriate maintenance and rehabilitation interventions to avoid catastrophic failures as well as to optimize the maintenance costs. This article presents a methodology for modeling the deterioration of slowly degrading assets based on an operating history. It consists of extracting degradation profiles by grouping together assets that exhibit similar degradation sequences using an unsupervised classification technique derived from artificial intelligence. The obtained clusters are used to build the performance prediction models. This methodology is applied to a sample of a stormwater drainage culvert dataset.

Keywords: Artificial intelligence, clustering, culvert, regression model, slow degradation.

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Authors: Sofia Stoica

Abstract:

In this paper, we use historical data to predict the stock price of a tech company. To this end, we use a dataset consisting of the stock prices over the past five years of 10 major tech companies: Adobe, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, Google, Microsoft, Netflix, Oracle, Salesforce, and Tesla. We implemented and tested three models – a linear regressor model, a k-nearest neighbor model (KNN), and a sequential neural network – and two algorithms – Multiplicative Weight Update and AdaBoost. We found that the sequential neural network performed the best, with a testing error of 0.18%. Interestingly, the linear model performed the second best with a testing error of 0.73%. These results show that using historical data is enough to obtain high accuracies, and a simple algorithm like linear regression has a performance similar to more sophisticated models while taking less time and resources to implement.

Keywords: Finance, machine learning, opening price, stock market.

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Authors: Lae-Jeong Park, Kyusoo Chung, Jungho Moon

Abstract:

This paper introduces an effective method of segmenting Korean text (place names in Korean) from a Korean road sign image. A Korean advanced directional road sign is composed of several types of visual information such as arrows, place names in Korean and English, and route numbers. Automatic classification of the visual information and extraction of Korean place names from the road sign images make it possible to avoid a lot of manual inputs to a database system for management of road signs nationwide. We propose a series of problem-specific heuristics that correctly segments Korean place names, which is the most crucial information, from the other information by leaving out non-text information effectively. The experimental results with a dataset of 368 road sign images show 96% of the detection rate per Korean place name and 84% per road sign image.

Keywords: Segmentation, road signs, characters, classification.

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Authors: Sorin Valcan, Mihail Găianu

Abstract:

Labeling is a very costly and time consuming process which aims to generate datasets for training neural networks in several functionalities and projects. For driver monitoring system projects, the need of labeled images has a significant impact on the budget and distribution of effort. This paper presents the modifications done to a ground truth data generation algorithm for 2D eyes location on infrared images with drivers in order to improve the quality of the data and performance of the trained neural networks. The algorithm restrictions become tougher which makes it more accurate but also less constant. The resulting dataset becomes smaller and shall not be altered by any kind of manual labels adjustment before being used in the neural networks training process. These changes resulted in a much better performance of the trained neural networks.

Keywords: Labeling automation, infrared camera, driver monitoring, eye detection, Convolutional Neural Networks.

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Authors: Afaf Alharbi, Qianni Zhang

Abstract:

The identification of malignant tissue in histopathological slides holds significant importance in both clinical settings and pathology research. This paper presents a methodology aimed at automatically categorizing cancerous tissue through the utilization of a multiple instance learning framework. This framework is specifically developed to acquire knowledge of the Bernoulli distribution of the bag label probability by employing neural networks. Furthermore, we put forward a neural network-based permutation-invariant aggregation operator, equivalent to attention mechanisms, which is applied to the multi-instance learning network. Through empirical evaluation on an openly available colon cancer histopathology dataset, we provide evidence that our approach surpasses various conventional deep learning methods.

Keywords: Attention Multiple Instance Learning, Multiple Instance Learning, transfer learning, histopathological slides, cancer tissue classification.

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Authors: Essam Al Daoud

Abstract:

Intrusion detection is a mechanism used to protect a system and analyse and predict the behaviours of system users. An ideal intrusion detection system is hard to achieve due to nonlinearity, and irrelevant or redundant features. This study introduces a new anomaly-based intrusion detection model. The suggested model is based on particle swarm optimisation and nonlinear, multi-class and multi-kernel support vector machines. Particle swarm optimisation is used for feature selection by applying a new formula to update the position and the velocity of a particle; the support vector machine is used as a classifier. The proposed model is tested and compared with the other methods using the KDD CUP 1999 dataset. The results indicate that this new method achieves better accuracy rates than previous methods.

Keywords: Feature selection, Intrusion detection, Support vector machine, Particle swarm.

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Authors: R. K. Chaurasiya, N. D. Londhe, S. Ghosh

Abstract:

The study of the electrical signals produced by neural activities of human brain is called Electroencephalography. In this paper, we propose an automatic and efficient EEG signal classification approach. The proposed approach is used to classify the EEG signal into two classes: epileptic seizure or not. In the proposed approach, we start with extracting the features by applying Discrete Wavelet Transform (DWT) in order to decompose the EEG signals into sub-bands. These features, extracted from details and approximation coefficients of DWT sub-bands, are used as input to Principal Component Analysis (PCA). The classification is based on reducing the feature dimension using PCA and deriving the supportvectors using Support Vector Machine (SVM). The experimental are performed on real and standard dataset. A very high level of classification accuracy is obtained in the result of classification.

Keywords: Discrete Wavelet Transform, Electroencephalogram, Pattern Recognition, Principal Component Analysis, Support Vector Machine.

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Authors: O. O. Obe, V. Balanica, E. Neagoe

Abstract:

The effects of hypertension are often lethal thus its early detection and prevention is very important for everybody. In this paper, a neural network (NN) model was developed and trained based on a dataset of hypertension causative parameters in order to forecast the likelihood of occurrence of hypertension in patients. Our research goal was to analyze the potential of the presented NN to predict, for a period of time, the risk of hypertension or the risk of developing this disease for patients that are or not currently hypertensive. The results of the analysis for a given patient can support doctors in taking pro-active measures for averting the occurrence of hypertension such as recommendations regarding the patient behavior in order to lower his hypertension risk. Moreover, the paper envisages a set of three example scenarios in order to determine the age when the patient becomes hypertensive, i.e. determine the threshold for hypertensive age, to analyze what happens if the threshold hypertensive age is set to a certain age and the weight of the patient if being varied, and, to set the ideal weight for the patient and analyze what happens with the threshold of hypertensive age.

Keywords: Neural Network, hypertension, data set, training set, supervised learning.

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Authors: Cheng-Lung Huang, Han-Yu Chien, Michael Conyette

Abstract:

Social bookmarking is an environment in which the user gradually changes interests over time so that the tag data associated with the current temporal period is usually more important than tag data temporally far from the current period. This implies that in the social tagging system, the newly tagged items by the user are more relevant than older items. This study proposes a novel recommender system that considers the users- recent tag preferences. The proposed system includes the following stages: grouping similar users into clusters using an E-M clustering algorithm, finding similar resources based on the user-s bookmarks, and recommending the top-N items to the target user. The study examines the system-s information retrieval performance using a dataset from del.icio.us, which is a famous social bookmarking web site. Experimental results show that the proposed system is better and more effective than traditional approaches.

Keywords: Recommender systems, Social bookmarking, Tag

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Authors: Koray U. Erbas

Abstract:

Neural networks are appealing for many applications since they are able to learn complex non-linear relationships between input and output data. As the number of neurons and layers in a neural network increase, it is possible to represent more complex relationships with automatically extracted features. Nowadays Deep Neural Networks (DNNs) are widely used in Computer Vision problems such as; classification, object detection, segmentation image editing etc. In this work, Facial Emotion Recognition task is performed by proposed Convolutional Neural Network (CNN)-based DNN architecture using FER2013 Dataset. Moreover, the effects of different hyperparameters (activation function, kernel size, initializer, batch size and network size) are investigated and ablation study results for Pooling Layer, Dropout and Batch Normalization are presented.

Keywords: Convolutional Neural Network, Deep Learning, Deep Learning Based FER, Facial Emotion Recognition.

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Authors: D. Gouwanda, S. M. N. A. Senanayake

Abstract:

This paper presents a real time force sensing instrument that is designed for human gait analysis purposes. It is capable of recording and monitoring ground reaction forces exerted by human foot during various activities such as walking, running and jumping in real time. In overall, force sensing mat mainly consists of three elements: the force sensing mat, signal conditioning circuit and data acquisition device. Force sensing mat is the mat that contains an array of force sensing elements. To control and process the incoming signal from the force sensing mat, Force-Logger and Force-Reloader are developed using National Instrument Labview. This paper describes the architecture of the force sensing mat, signal conditioning circuit and the real time streaming of the incoming data from the force sensing mat. Additionally, a preliminary experiment dataset is presented in this paper.

Keywords: Force platform, force sensing resistor, human gait analysis.

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Authors: Chieh-Yuan Tsai, Chuang-Cheng Chiu

Abstract:

Biclustering aims at identifying several biclusters that reveal potential local patterns from a microarray matrix. A bicluster is a sub-matrix of the microarray consisting of only a subset of genes co-regulates in a subset of conditions. In this study, we extend the motif of subspace clustering to present a K-biclusters clustering (KBC) algorithm for the microarray biclustering issue. Besides minimizing the dissimilarities between genes and bicluster centers within all biclusters, the objective function of the KBC algorithm additionally takes into account how to minimize the residues within all biclusters based on the mean square residue model. In addition, the objective function also maximizes the entropy of conditions to stimulate more conditions to contribute the identification of biclusters. The KBC algorithm adopts the K-means type clustering process to efficiently make the partition of K biclusters be optimized. A set of experiments on a practical microarray dataset are demonstrated to show the performance of the proposed KBC algorithm.

Keywords: Microarray, Biclustering, Subspace clustering, Meansquare residue model.

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Authors: Siavash Asadi Ghajarloo

Abstract:

Nowadays predicting political risk level of country has become a critical issue for investors who intend to achieve accurate information concerning stability of the business environments. Since, most of the times investors are layman and nonprofessional IT personnel; this paper aims to propose a framework named GECR in order to help nonexpert persons to discover political risk stability across time based on the political news and events. To achieve this goal, the Bayesian Networks approach was utilized for 186 political news of Pakistan as sample dataset. Bayesian Networks as an artificial intelligence approach has been employed in presented framework, since this is a powerful technique that can be applied to model uncertain domains. The results showed that our framework along with Bayesian Networks as decision support tool, predicted the political risk level with a high degree of accuracy.

Keywords: Bayesian Networks, Data mining, GECRframework, Predicting political risk.

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Authors: Homayoon Zarshenas, Mahdi Bamdad, Hadi Grailu, Akbar A. Shakoori

Abstract:

In this study we focus on improvement performance of a cue based Motor Imagery Brain Computer Interface (BCI). For this purpose, data fusion approach is used on results of different classifiers to make the best decision. At first step Distinction Sensitive Learning Vector Quantization method is used as a feature selection method to determine most informative frequencies in recorded signals and its performance is evaluated by frequency search method. Then informative features are extracted by packet wavelet transform. In next step 5 different types of classification methods are applied. The methodologies are tested on BCI Competition II dataset III, the best obtained accuracy is 85% and the best kappa value is 0.8. At final step ordered weighted averaging (OWA) method is used to provide a proper aggregation classifiers outputs. Using OWA enhanced system accuracy to 95% and kappa value to 0.9. Applying OWA just uses 50 milliseconds for performing calculation.

Keywords: BCI, EEG, Classifier, Fuzzy operator, OWA.

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Authors: D. Dhouib, A. Naït-Ali, C. Olivier, M. S. Naceur

Abstract:

In this paper, we evaluate the performance of some wavelet based coding algorithms such as 3D QT-L, 3D SPIHT and JPEG2K. In the first step we achieve an objective comparison between three coders, namely 3D SPIHT, 3D QT-L and JPEG2K. For this purpose, eight MRI head scan test sets of 256 x 256x124 voxels have been used. Results show superior performance of 3D SPIHT algorithm, whereas 3D QT-L outperforms JPEG2K. The second step consists of evaluating the robustness of 3D SPIHT and JPEG2K coding algorithm over wireless transmission. Compressed dataset images are then transmitted over AWGN wireless channel or over Rayleigh wireless channel. Results show the superiority of JPEG2K over these two models. In fact, it has been deduced that JPEG2K is more robust regarding coding errors. Thus we may conclude the necessity of using corrector codes in order to protect the transmitted medical information.

Keywords: Image coding, medical imaging, wavelet basedcoder, wireless transmission.

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Authors: Chirawat Wattanapanich, Hong Wei

Abstract:

This study presents new gait representations for improving gait recognition accuracy on cross gait appearances, such as normal walking, wearing a coat and carrying a bag. Based on the Gait Energy Image (GEI), two ideas are implemented to generate new gait representations. One is to append lower knee regions to the original GEI, and the other is to apply convolutional operations to the GEI and its variants. A set of new gait representations are created and used for training multi-class Support Vector Machines (SVMs). Tests are conducted on the CASIA dataset B. Various combinations of the gait representations with different convolutional kernel size and different numbers of kernels used in the convolutional processes are examined. Both the entire images as features and reduced dimensional features by Principal Component Analysis (PCA) are tested in gait recognition. Interestingly, both new techniques, appending the lower knee regions to the original GEI and convolutional GEI, can significantly contribute to the performance improvement in the gait recognition. The experimental results have shown that the average recognition rate can be improved from 75.65% to 87.50%.

Keywords: Convolutional image, lower knee, gait.

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Authors: S. Sarumathi, N. Shanthi, P. Ranjetha

Abstract:

Data mining is the procedure of determining interesting patterns from the huge amount of data. With the intention of accessing the data faster the most supporting processes needed is clustering. Clustering is the process of identifying similarity between data according to the individuality present in the data and grouping associated data objects into clusters. Cluster ensemble is the technique to combine various runs of different clustering algorithms to obtain a general partition of the original dataset, aiming for consolidation of outcomes from a collection of individual clustering outcomes. The performances of clustering ensembles are mainly affecting by two principal factors such as diversity and quality. This paper presents the overview about the different cluster ensemble algorithm along with their methods used in cluster ensemble to improve the diversity and quality in the several cluster ensemble related papers and shows the comparative analysis of different cluster ensemble also summarize various cluster ensemble methods. Henceforth this clear analysis will be very useful for the world of clustering experts and also helps in deciding the most appropriate one to determine the problem in hand.

Keywords: Cluster Ensemble, Consensus Function, CSPA, Diversity, HGPA, MCLA.

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Authors: Jaqueline M. R. Vieira

Abstract:

Different strategies and tools are available at the oil and gas industry for detecting and analyzing tension and possible fractures in borehole walls. Most of these techniques are based on manual observation of the captured borehole images. While this strategy may be possible and convenient with small images and few data, it may become difficult and suitable to errors when big databases of images must be treated. While the patterns may differ among the image area, depending on many characteristics (drilling strategy, rock components, rock strength, etc.). In this work we propose the inclusion of data-mining classification strategies in order to create a knowledge database of the segmented curves. These classifiers allow that, after some time using and manually pointing parts of borehole images that correspond to tension regions and breakout areas, the system will indicate and suggest automatically new candidate regions, with higher accuracy. We suggest the use of different classifiers methods, in order to achieve different knowledge dataset configurations.

Keywords: Brazil, classifiers, data-mining, Image Segmentation, oil well visualization, classifiers.

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Authors: Maros Barabas, Michal Drozd, Petr Hanacek

Abstract:

A novel behavioral detection framework is proposed to detect zero day buffer overflow vulnerabilities (based on network behavioral signatures) using zero-day exploits, instead of the signature-based or anomaly-based detection solutions currently available for IDPS techniques. At first we present the detection model that uses shadow honeypot. Our system is used for the online processing of network attacks and generating a behavior detection profile. The detection profile represents the dataset of 112 types of metrics describing the exact behavior of malware in the network. In this paper we present the examples of generating behavioral signatures for two attacks – a buffer overflow exploit on FTP server and well known Conficker worm. We demonstrated the visualization of important aspects by showing the differences between valid behavior and the attacks. Based on these metrics we can detect attacks with a very high probability of success, the process of detection is however very expensive.

Keywords: behavioral signatures, metrics, network, security design

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Authors: Salvatore Marra, Francesco C. Morabito

Abstract:

In this paper we present an efficient approach for the prediction of two sunspot-related time series, namely the Yearly Sunspot Number and the IR5 Index, that are commonly used for monitoring solar activity. The method is based on exploiting partially recurrent Elman networks and it can be divided into three main steps: the first one consists in a “de-rectification" of the time series under study in order to obtain a new time series whose appearance, similar to a sum of sinusoids, can be modelled by our neural networks much better than the original dataset. After that, we normalize the derectified data so that they have zero mean and unity standard deviation and, finally, train an Elman network with only one input, a recurrent hidden layer and one output using a back-propagation algorithm with variable learning rate and momentum. The achieved results have shown the efficiency of this approach that, although very simple, can perform better than most of the existing solar activity forecasting methods.

Keywords: Elman neural networks, sunspot, solar activity, time series prediction.

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