Search results for: Data Estimation

Authors: Namal A. Senanayake, A. Beg, Withana C. Prasad

Abstract:

This paper analyzes the patterns of the Monte Carlo data for a large number of variables and minterms, in order to characterize the circuit path length behavior. We propose models that are determined by training process of shortest path length derived from a wide range of binary decision diagram (BDD) simulations. The creation of the model was done use of feed forward neural network (NN) modeling methodology. Experimental results for ISCAS benchmark circuits show an RMS error of 0.102 for the shortest path length complexity estimation predicted by the NN model (NNM). Use of such a model can help reduce the time complexity of very large scale integrated (VLSI) circuitries and related computer-aided design (CAD) tools that use BDDs.

Keywords: Monte Carlo data, Binary decision diagrams, Neural network modeling, Shortest path length estimation.

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Authors: M. Ravindra, R. Srinivasa Rao, V. Shanmukha Naga Raju

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This paper presents state estimation with Phasor Measurement Unit (PMU) allocation to obtain complete observability of network. A matrix is designed with modeling of zero injection constraints to minimize PMU allocations. State estimation algorithm is developed with optimal allocation of PMUs to find accurate states of network. The incorporation of PMU into traditional state estimation process improves accuracy and computational performance for large power systems. The nonlinearity integrated with zero injection (ZI) constraints is remodeled to linear frame to optimize number of PMUs. The problem of optimal PMU allocation is regarded with modeling of ZI constraints, PMU loss or line outage, cost factor and redundant measurements. The proposed state estimation with optimal PMU allocation has been compared with traditional state estimation process to show its importance. MATLAB programming on IEEE 14, 30, 57, and 118 bus networks is implemented out by Binary Integer Programming (BIP) method and compared with other methods to show its effectiveness.

Keywords: Observability, phasor measurement units, synchrophasors, SCADA measurements, zero injection bus.

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Authors: E. Praynlin, P. Latha

Abstract:

Software Effort Estimation is the process of estimating the effort required to develop software. By estimating the effort, the cost and schedule required to estimate the software can be determined. Accurate Estimate helps the developer to allocate the resource accordingly in order to avoid cost overrun and schedule overrun. Several methods are available in order to estimate the effort among which soft computing based method plays a prominent role. Software cost estimation deals with lot of uncertainty among all soft computing methods neural network is good in handling uncertainty. In this paper Radial Basis Function Network is compared with the back propagation network and the results are validated using six data sets and it is found that RBFN is best suitable to estimate the effort. The Results are validated using two tests the error test and the statistical test.

Keywords: Software cost estimation, Radial Basis Function Network (RBFN), Back propagation function network, Mean Magnitude of Relative Error (MMRE).

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Authors: Iqbal Hossain, Dr. Monzur Imteaz, Dr. Shirley Gato-Trinidad, Prof. Abdallah Shanableh

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Estimation of runoff water quality parameters is required to determine appropriate water quality management options. Various models are used to estimate runoff water quality parameters. However, most models provide event-based estimates of water quality parameters for specific sites. The work presented in this paper describes the development of a model that continuously simulates the accumulation and wash-off of water quality pollutants in a catchment. The model allows estimation of pollutants build-up during dry periods and pollutants wash-off during storm events. The model was developed by integrating two individual models; rainfall-runoff model, and catchment water quality model. The rainfall-runoff model is based on the time-area runoff estimation method. The model allows users to estimate the time of concentration using a range of established methods. The model also allows estimation of the continuing runoff losses using any of the available estimation methods (i.e., constant, linearly varying or exponentially varying). Pollutants build-up in a catchment was represented by one of three pre-defined functions; power, exponential, or saturation. Similarly, pollutants wash-off was represented by one of three different functions; power, rating-curve, or exponential. The developed runoff water quality model was set-up to simulate the build-up and wash-off of total suspended solids (TSS), total phosphorus (TP) and total nitrogen (TN). The application of the model was demonstrated using available runoff and TSS field data from road and roof surfaces in the Gold Coast, Australia. The model provided excellent representation of the field data demonstrating the simplicity yet effectiveness of the proposed model.

Keywords: Catchment, continuous pollutants build-up, pollutants wash-off, runoff, runoff water quality model.

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Authors: Halil Ersin Soken, Chingiz Hajiyev

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In the normal operation conditions of a pico satellite, conventional Unscented Kalman Filter (UKF) gives sufficiently good estimation results. However, if the measurements are not reliable because of any kind of malfunction in the estimation system, UKF gives inaccurate results and diverges by time. This study, introduces Robust Unscented Kalman Filter (RUKF) algorithms with the filter gain correction for the case of measurement malfunctions. By the use of defined variables named as measurement noise scale factor, the faulty measurements are taken into the consideration with a small weight and the estimations are corrected without affecting the characteristic of the accurate ones. Two different RUKF algorithms, one with single scale factor and one with multiple scale factors, are proposed and applied for the attitude estimation process of a pico satellite. The results of these algorithms are compared for different types of measurement faults in different estimation scenarios and recommendations about their applications are given.

Keywords: attitude algorithms, Kalman filters, robustestimation.

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Authors: F. H. Abanda, B. Kamsu-Foguem, J. H. M. Tah

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Construction cost estimation is one of the most important aspects of construction project design. For generations, the process of cost estimating has been manual, time-consuming and error-prone. This has partly led to most cost estimates to be unclear and riddled with inaccuracies that at times lead to over- or underestimation of construction cost. The development of standard set of measurement rules that are understandable by all those involved in a construction project, have not totally solved the challenges. Emerging Building Information Modelling (BIM) technologies can exploit standard measurement methods to automate cost estimation process and improve accuracies. This requires standard measurement methods to be structured in ontological and machine readable format; so that BIM software packages can easily read them. Most standard measurement methods are still text-based in textbooks and require manual editing into tables or Spreadsheet during cost estimation. The aim of this study is to explore the development of an ontology based on New Rules of Measurement (NRM) commonly used in the UK for cost estimation. The methodology adopted is Methontology, one of the most widely used ontology engineering methodologies. The challenges in this exploratory study are also reported and recommendations for future studies proposed.

Keywords: BIM, Construction projects, Cost estimation, NRM, Ontology.

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Authors: Lalita Gupta, R. P. Singh

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Array signal processing involves signal enumeration and source localization. Array signal processing is centered on the ability to fuse temporal and spatial information captured via sampling signals emitted from a number of sources at the sensors of an array in order to carry out a specific estimation task: source characteristics (mainly localization of the sources) and/or array characteristics (mainly array geometry) estimation. Array signal processing is a part of signal processing that uses sensors organized in patterns or arrays, to detect signals and to determine information about them. Beamforming is a general signal processing technique used to control the directionality of the reception or transmission of a signal. Using Beamforming we can direct the majority of signal energy we receive from a group of array. Multiple signal classification (MUSIC) is a highly popular eigenstructure-based estimation method of direction of arrival (DOA) with high resolution. This Paper enumerates the effect of missing sensors in DOA estimation. The accuracy of the MUSIC-based DOA estimation is degraded significantly both by the effects of the missing sensors among the receiving array elements and the unequal channel gain and phase errors of the receiver.

Keywords: Array Signal Processing, Beamforming, ULA, Direction of Arrival, MUSIC

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Authors: Amin Sedighfar, M. R. Moniri

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Determination of state of charge (SOC) in today’s world becomes an increasingly important issue in all the applications that include a battery. In fact, estimation of the SOC is a fundamental need for the battery, which is the most important energy storage in Hybrid Electric Vehicles (HEVs), smart grid systems, drones, UPS and so on. Regarding those applications, the SOC estimation algorithm is expected to be precise and easy to implement. This paper presents an online method for the estimation of the SOC of Valve-Regulated Lead Acid (VRLA) batteries. The proposed method uses the well-known Kalman Filter (KF), and Neural Networks (NNs) and all of the simulations have been done with MATLAB software. The NN is trained offline using the data collected from the battery discharging process. A generic cell model is used, and the underlying dynamic behavior of the model has used two capacitors (bulk and surface) and three resistors (terminal, surface, and end), where the SOC determined from the voltage represents the bulk capacitor. The aim of this work is to compare the performance of conventional integration-based SOC estimation methods with a mixed algorithm. Moreover, by containing the effect of temperature, the final result becomes more accurate. 

Keywords: Kalman filter, neural networks, state-of-charge, VRLA battery.

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Authors: M. Govindarajan, R. M.Chandrasekaran

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Text data mining is a process of exploratory data analysis. Classification maps data into predefined groups or classes. It is often referred to as supervised learning because the classes are determined before examining the data. This paper describes proposed radial basis function Classifier that performs comparative crossvalidation for existing radial basis function Classifier. The feasibility and the benefits of the proposed approach are demonstrated by means of data mining problem: direct Marketing. Direct marketing has become an important application field of data mining. Comparative Cross-validation involves estimation of accuracy by either stratified k-fold cross-validation or equivalent repeated random subsampling. While the proposed method may have high bias; its performance (accuracy estimation in our case) may be poor due to high variance. Thus the accuracy with proposed radial basis function Classifier was less than with the existing radial basis function Classifier. However there is smaller the improvement in runtime and larger improvement in precision and recall. In the proposed method Classification accuracy and prediction accuracy are determined where the prediction accuracy is comparatively high.

Keywords: Text Data Mining, Comparative Cross-validation, Radial Basis Function, runtime, accuracy.

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Authors: Zsolt János Viharos, Krisztián Balázs Kis, Imre Paniti, Gábor Belső, Péter Németh, János Farkas

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The paper presents the results and industrial applications in the production setup period estimation based on industrial data inherited from the field of polymer cutting. The literature of polymer cutting is very limited considering the number of publications. The first polymer cutting machine is known since the second half of the 20th century; however, the production of polymer parts with this kind of technology is still a challenging research topic. The products of the applying industrial partner must met high technical requirements, as they are used in medical, measurement instrumentation and painting industry branches. Typically, 20% of these parts are new work, which means every five years almost the entire product portfolio is replaced in their low series manufacturing environment. Consequently, it requires a flexible production system, where the estimation of the frequent setup periods' lengths is one of the key success factors. In the investigation, several (input) parameters have been studied and grouped to create an adequate training information set for an artificial neural network as a base for the estimation of the individual setup periods. In the first group, product information is collected such as the product name and number of items. The second group contains material data like material type and colour. In the third group, surface quality and tolerance information are collected including the finest surface and tightest (or narrowest) tolerance. The fourth group contains the setup data like machine type and work shift. One source of these parameters is the Manufacturing Execution System (MES) but some data were also collected from Computer Aided Design (CAD) drawings. The number of the applied tools is one of the key factors on which the industrial partners’ estimations were based previously. The artificial neural network model was trained on several thousands of real industrial data. The mean estimation accuracy of the setup periods' lengths was improved by 30%, and in the same time the deviation of the prognosis was also improved by 50%. Furthermore, an investigation on the mentioned parameter groups considering the manufacturing order was also researched. The paper also highlights the manufacturing introduction experiences and further improvements of the proposed methods, both on the shop floor and on the quotation preparation fields. Every week more than 100 real industrial setup events are given and the related data are collected.

Keywords: Artificial neural network, low series manufacturing, polymer cutting, setup period estimation.

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Authors: Nurbanu Guzey, S. Jagannathan

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Locating Radio Controlled (RC) devices using their unintended emissions has a great interest considering security concerns. Weak nature of these emissions requires near field localization approach since it is hard to detect these signals in far field region of array. Instead of only angle estimation, near field localization also requires range estimation of the source which makes this method more complicated than far field models. Challenges of locating such devices in a near field region and real time environment are analyzed in this paper. An ESPRIT like near field localization scheme is utilized for both angle and range estimation. 1-D search with symmetric subarrays is provided. Two 7 element uniform linear antenna arrays (ULA) are employed for locating RC source. Experiment results of location estimation for one unintended emitting walkie-talkie for different positions are given.

Keywords: Localization, angle of arrival (AoA), range estimation, array signal processing, ESPRIT, uniform linear array (ULA).

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Authors: Hichem Omrani, Philippe Gerber, Patrick Bousch

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The problem of Small Area Estimation (SAE) is complex because of various information sources and insufficient data. In this paper, an approach for SAE is presented for decision-making at national, regional and local level. We propose an Empirical Best Linear Unbiased Predictor (EBLUP) as an estimator in order to combine several information sources to evaluate various indicators. First, we present the urban audit project and its environmental, social and economic indicators. Secondly, we propose an approach for decision making in order to estimate indicators. An application is used to validate the theoretical proposal. Finally, a decision support system is presented based on open-source environment.

Keywords: Small area estimation, statistical method, sampling, empirical best linear unbiased predictor (EBLUP), decision-making.

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Authors: Kriangkrai Maneerat, Chutima Prommak

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Indoor wireless localization systems have played an important role to enhance context-aware services. Determining the position of mobile objects in complex indoor environments, such as those in multi-floor buildings, is very challenging problems. This paper presents an effective floor estimation algorithm, which can accurately determine the floor where mobile objects located. The proposed algorithm is based on the confidence interval of the summation of online Received Signal Strength (RSS) obtained from the IEEE 802.15.4 Wireless Sensor Networks (WSN).We compare the performance of the proposed algorithm with those of other floor estimation algorithms in literature by conducting a real implementation of WSN in our facility. The experimental results and analysis showed that the proposed floor estimation algorithm outperformed the other algorithms and provided highest percentage of floor accuracy up to 100% with 95-percent confidence interval.

Keywords: Floor estimation algorithm, floor determination, multi-floor building, indoor wireless systems.

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Authors: Shuimiao Wan, Chao Yuan, Baoguang Tian

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In statistics parameter theory, usually the parameter estimations have two kinds, one is the least-square estimation (LSE), and the other is the best linear unbiased estimation (BLUE). Due to the determining theorem of minimum variance unbiased estimator (MVUE), the parameter estimation of BLUE in linear model is most ideal. But since the calculations are complicated or the covariance is not given, people are hardly to get the solution. Therefore, people prefer to use LSE rather than BLUE. And this substitution will take some losses. To quantize the losses, many scholars have presented many kinds of different relative efficiencies in different views. For the linear weighted regression model, this paper discusses the relative efficiencies of LSE of β to BLUE of β. It also defines two new relative efficiencies and gives their lower bounds.

Keywords: Linear weighted regression, Relative efficiency, Lower bound, Parameter estimation.

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Authors: Anastasiia Yu. Timofeeva

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Two new algorithms for nonparametric estimation of errors-in-variables models are proposed. The first algorithm is based on penalized regression spline. The spline is represented as a piecewise-linear function and for each linear portion orthogonal regression is estimated. This algorithm is iterative. The second algorithm involves locally weighted regression estimation. When the independent variable is measured with error such estimation is a complex nonlinear optimization problem. The simulation results have shown the advantage of the second algorithm under the assumption that true smoothing parameters values are known. Nevertheless the use of some indexes of fit to smoothing parameters selection gives the similar results and has an oversmoothing effect.

Keywords: Grade point average, orthogonal regression, penalized regression spline, locally weighted regression.

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Authors: N. Ben Si Ali, N. Benalia, N. Zarzouri

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Speed sensorless systems are intensively studied during recent years; this is mainly due to their economical benefit and fragility of mechanical sensors and also the difficulty of installing this type of sensor in many applications. These systems suffer from instability problems and sensitivity to parameter mismatch at low speed operation. In this paper an analysis of adaptive observer stability with stator resistance estimation is given.

Keywords: Motor drive, sensorless control, adaptive observer, stator resistance estimation.

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Authors: V. R. Asghari, M. Ardebilipour

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In the context of spectrum surveillance, a method to recover the code of spread spectrum signal is presented, whereas the receiver has no knowledge of the transmitter-s spreading sequence. The approach is based on a genetic algorithm (GA), which is forced to model the received signal. Genetic algorithms (GAs) are well known for their robustness in solving complex optimization problems. Experimental results show that the method provides a good estimation, even when the signal power is below the noise power.

Keywords: Code estimation, genetic algorithms, spread spectrum.

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Authors: Yeqing Guan, Fen Yang

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To learn about China-s future energy demand, this paper first proposed GM(1,1) model group based on recursive solutions of parameters estimation, setting up a general solving-algorithm of the model group. This method avoided the problems occurred on the past researches that remodeling, loss of information and large amount of calculation. This paper established respectively all-data-GM(1,1), metabolic GM(1,1) and new information GM (1,1)model according to the historical data of energy consumption in China in the year 2005-2010 and the added data of 2011, then modeling, simulating and comparison of accuracies we got the optimal models and to predict. Results showed that the total energy demand of China will be 37.2221 billion tons of equivalent coal in 2012 and 39.7973 billion tons of equivalent coal in 2013, which are as the same as the overall planning of energy demand in The 12th Five-Year Plan.

Keywords: energy demands, GM(1, 1) model group, least square estimation, prediction

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Authors: Beata Czarnacka-Chrobot

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Execution of Business Software Systems (BSS) Development and Enhancement Projects (D&EP) is characterized by the exceptionally low effectiveness, leading to considerable financial losses. The general reason for low effectiveness of such projects is that they are inappropriately managed. One of the factors of proper BSS D&EP management is suitable (reliable and objective) method of project work effort estimation since this is what determines correct estimation of its major attributes: project cost and duration. BSS D&EP is usually considered to be accomplished effectively if product of a planned functionality is delivered without cost and time overrun. The goal of this paper is to prove that choosing approach to the BSS D&EP work effort estimation has a considerable influence on the effectiveness of such projects execution.

Keywords: Business software systems, development and enhancement projects, effectiveness, work effort estimation methods, software product size, software product functionality, project duration, project cost.

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Authors: F. Z. Doğru, O. Arslan

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In general, classical methods such as maximum likelihood (ML) and least squares (LS) estimation methods are used to estimate the shape parameters of the Burr XII distribution. However, these estimators are very sensitive to the outliers. To overcome this problem we propose alternative robust estimators based on the M-estimation method for the shape parameters of the Burr XII distribution. We provide a small simulation study and a real data example to illustrate the performance of the proposed estimators over the ML and the LS estimators. The simulation results show that the proposed robust estimators generally outperform the classical estimators in terms of bias and root mean square errors when there are outliers in data.

Keywords: Burr XII distribution, robust estimator, M-estimator, maximum likelihood, least squares.

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Authors: Parvinder S. Sandhu, Porush Bassi, Amanpreet Singh Brar

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Various models have been derived by studying large number of completed software projects from various organizations and applications to explore how project sizes mapped into project effort. But, still there is a need to prediction accuracy of the models. As Neuro-fuzzy based system is able to approximate the non-linear function with more precision. So, Neuro-Fuzzy system is used as a soft computing approach to generate model by formulating the relationship based on its training. In this paper, Neuro-Fuzzy technique is used for software estimation modeling of on NASA software project data and performance of the developed models are compared with the Halstead, Walston-Felix, Bailey-Basili and Doty Models mentioned in the literature.

Keywords: Effort Estimation, Neural-Fuzzy Model, Halstead Model, Walston-Felix Model, Bailey-Basili Model, Doty Model.

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Authors: Komlan Sedzro

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We apply the non-parametric, unconditional, hyperbolic order-α quantile estimator to appraise the relative efficiency of Microfinance Institutions in Africa in terms of outreach. Our purpose is to verify if these institutions, which must constantly try to strike a compromise between their social role and financial sustainability are operationally efficient. Using data on African MFIs extracted from the Microfinance Information eXchange (MIX) database and covering the 2004 to 2006 periods, we find that more efficient MFIs are also the most profitable. This result is in line with the view that social performance is not in contradiction with the pursuit of excellent financial performance. Our results also show that large MFIs in terms of asset and those charging the highest fees are not necessarily the most efficient.

Keywords: Data envelopment analysis, microfinance institutions, quantile estimation of efficiency, social and financial performance.

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Authors: A. A. Hossam-Eldin, E. N. Abdallah, M. S. El-Nozahy

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The identification and elimination of bad measurements is one of the basic functions of a robust state estimator as bad data have the effect of corrupting the results of state estimation according to the popular weighted least squares method. However this is a difficult problem to handle especially when dealing with multiple errors from the interactive conforming type. In this paper, a self adaptive genetic based algorithm is proposed. The algorithm utilizes the results of the classical linearized normal residuals approach to tune the genetic operators thus instead of making a randomized search throughout the whole search space it is more likely to be a directed search thus the optimum solution is obtained at very early stages(maximum of 5 generations). The algorithm utilizes the accumulating databases of already computed cases to reduce the computational burden to minimum. Tests are conducted with reference to the standard IEEE test systems. Test results are very promising.

Keywords: Bad Data, Genetic Algorithms, Linearized Normal residuals, Observability, Power System State Estimation.

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Authors: Amalka Nawarathna, Nirodha Fernando, Zaid Alwan

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Global carbon reduction is not merely a responsibility of environmentally advanced developed countries, but also a responsibility of developing countries regardless of their less impact on global carbon emissions. In recognition of that, Sri Lanka as a developing country has initiated promoting green building construction as one reduction strategy. However, notwithstanding the increasing attention on Embodied Carbon (EC) reduction in the global building sector, they still mostly focus on Operational Carbon (OC) reduction (through improving operational energy). An adequate attention has not yet been given on EC estimation and reduction. Therefore, this study aims to identify the reasons for the slow uptake of EC estimation in the Sri Lankan building sector. To achieve this aim, 16 numbers of global barriers to estimate EC were identified through existing literature. They were then subjected to a pilot survey to identify the significant reasons for the slow uptake of EC estimation in the Sri Lankan building sector. A questionnaire with a three-point Likert scale was used to this end. The collected data were analysed using descriptive statistics. The findings revealed that 11 out of 16 challenges/ barriers are highly relevant as reasons for the slow uptake in estimating EC in buildings in Sri Lanka while the other five challenges/ barriers remain as moderately relevant reasons. Further, the findings revealed that there are no low relevant reasons. Eventually, the paper concluded that all the known reasons are significant to the Sri Lankan building sector and it is necessary to address them in order to upturn the attention on EC reduction.

Keywords: Embodied carbon emissions, embodied carbon estimation, global carbon reduction, Sri Lankan building sector.

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Authors: Won Sup Kim, Xue-Mei Cui, Seung Kee Han

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We present on the method of inverse coherence matrix for the estimation of network connectivity from multivariate time series of a complex system. In a model system of coupled chaotic oscillators, it is shown that the inverse coherence matrix defined as the inverse of cross coherence matrix is proportional to the network connectivity. Therefore the inverse coherence matrix could be used for the distinction between the directly connected links from indirectly connected links in a complex network. We compare the result of network estimation using the method of the inverse coherence matrix with the results obtained from the coherence matrix and the partial coherence matrix.

Keywords: Chaotic oscillator, complex network, inverse coherence matrix, network estimation.

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Authors: Karunakar A K, Manohara Pai M M

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In 3D-wavelet video coding framework temporal filtering is done along the trajectory of motion using Motion Compensated Temporal Filtering (MCTF). Hence computationally efficient motion estimation technique is the need of MCTF. In this paper a predictive technique is proposed in order to reduce the computational complexity of the MCTF framework, by exploiting the high correlation among the frames in a Group Of Picture (GOP). The proposed technique applies coarse and fine searches of any fast block based motion estimation, only to the first pair of frames in a GOP. The generated motion vectors are supplied to the next consecutive frames, even to subsequent temporal levels and only fine search is carried out around those predicted motion vectors. Hence coarse search is skipped for all the motion estimation in a GOP except for the first pair of frames. The technique has been tested for different fast block based motion estimation algorithms over different standard test sequences using MC-EZBC, a state-of-the-art scalable video coder. The simulation result reveals substantial reduction (i.e. 20.75% to 38.24%) in the number of search points during motion estimation, without compromising the quality of the reconstructed video compared to non-predictive techniques. Since the motion vectors of all the pair of frames in a GOP except the first pair will have value ±1 around the motion vectors of the previous pair of frames, the number of bits required for motion vectors is also reduced by 50%.

Keywords: Motion Compensated Temporal Filtering, predictivemotion estimation, lifted wavelet transform, motion vector

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Authors: H. Baseri, G. Alinejad

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The objective of this study is to design an adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) for estimation of surface roughness in grinding process. The Used data have been generated from experimental observations when the wheel has been dressed using a rotary diamond disc dresser. The input parameters of model are dressing speed ratio, dressing depth and dresser cross-feed rate and output parameter is surface roughness. In the experimental procedure the grinding conditions are constant and only the dressing conditions are varied. The comparison of the predicted values and the experimental data indicates that the ANFIS model has a better performance with respect to back-propagation neural network (BPNN) model which has been presented by the authors in previous work for estimation of the surface roughness.

Keywords: Grinding, ANFIS, Neural network, Disc dressing.

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Authors: F. Ahwide, Y. Bouker, K. Hatem

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This paper presents long term wind data analysis in terms of annual and diurnal variations at different areas of Libya. The data of the wind speed and direction are taken each ten minutes for a period, at least two years, are used in the analysis. ‘WindPRO’ software and Excel workbook were used for the wind statistics and energy calculations. As for Darnah, average speeds are 10m, 20m and 40m and 6.57 m/s, 7.18 m/s, and 8.09 m/s, respectively. Highest wind speeds are observed at SSW, followed by S, WNW and NW sectors. Lowest wind speeds are observed between N and E sectors. Most frequent wind directions are NW and NNW. Hence, wind turbines can be installed against these directions. The most powerful sector is NW (31.3% of total expected wind energy), followed by 17.9% SSW, 11.5% NNW and 8.2% WNW

In Excel workbook, an estimation of annual energy yield at position of Derna, Al-Maqrun, Tarhuna and Al-Asaaba meteorological mast has been done, considering a generic wind turbine of 1.65 MW. (mtORRES, TWT 82-1.65MW) in position of meteorological mast. Three other turbines have been tested and a reduction of 18% over the net AEP. At 80m, the estimation of energy yield for Derna, Al- Maqrun, Tarhuna and Asaaba is 6.78 GWh or 3390 equivalent hours, 5.80 GWh or 2900 equivalent hours, 4.91 GWh or 2454 equivalent hours and 5.08 GWh or 2541 equivalent hours respectively. It seems a fair value in the context of a possible development of a wind energy project in the areas, considering a value of 2400 equivalent hours as an approximate limit to consider a wind warm economically profitable. Furthermore, an estimation of annual energy yield at positions of Misalatha, Azizyah and Goterria meteorological mast has been done, considering a generic wind turbine of 2 MW. We found that, at 80 m the estimation of energy yield is 3.12 GWh or 1557 equivalent hours, 4.47 GWh or 2235 equivalent hours and 4.07GWh or 2033 respectively.

It seems a very poor value in the context of possible development of a wind energy project in the areas, considering a value of 2400 equivalent hours as an approximate limit to consider a wind warm economically profitable. Anyway, more data and a detailed wind farm study would be necessary to draw conclusions.

Keywords: Wind turbines, wind data, energy yield, micrositting.

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Authors: Nureni O. Adeboye, Dawud A. Agunbiade

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This research attempts to investigate the effects of heteroscedasticity and periodicity in a Panel Data Regression Model (PDRM) by extending previous works on balanced panel data estimation within the context of fitting PDRM for Banks audit fee. The estimation of such model was achieved through the derivation of Joint Lagrange Multiplier (LM) test for homoscedasticity and zero-serial correlation, a conditional LM test for zero serial correlation given heteroscedasticity of varying degrees as well as conditional LM test for homoscedasticity given first order positive serial correlation via a two-way error component model. Monte Carlo simulations were carried out for 81 different variations, of which its design assumed a uniform distribution under a linear heteroscedasticity function. Each of the variation was iterated 1000 times and the assessment of the three estimators considered are based on Variance, Absolute bias (ABIAS), Mean square error (MSE) and the Root Mean Square (RMSE) of parameters estimates. Eighteen different models at different specified conditions were fitted, and the best-fitted model is that of within estimator when heteroscedasticity is severe at either zero or positive serial correlation value. LM test results showed that the tests have good size and power as all the three tests are significant at 5% for the specified linear form of heteroscedasticity function which established the facts that Banks operations are severely heteroscedastic in nature with little or no periodicity effects.

Keywords: Audit fee, heteroscedasticity, Lagrange multiplier test, periodicity.

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Authors: M. Ravindra, R. Srinivasa Rao

Abstract:

This paper presents a Generalized Binary Integer Linear Programming (GBILP) method for optimal allocation of Phasor Measurement Units (PMUs) and to generate Dynamic State Estimation (DSE) solution with complete observability. The GBILP method is formulated with Zero Injection Bus (ZIB) constraints to reduce the number of locations for placement of PMUs in the case of normal and single line contingency. The integration of PMU and conventional measurements is modeled in DSE process to estimate accurate states of the system. To estimate the dynamic behavior of the power system with proposed method, load change up to 40% considered at a bus in the power system network. The proposed DSE method is compared with traditional Weighted Least Squares (WLS) state estimation method in presence of load changes to show the impact of PMU measurements. MATLAB simulations are carried out on IEEE 14, 30, 57, and 118 bus systems to prove the validity of the proposed approach.

Keywords: Observability, phasor measurement units, PMU, state estimation, dynamic state estimation, SCADA measurements, zero injection bus.

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